Thread Rating:

beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 97
  • Posts: 13929
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 24th, 2019 at 5:39:13 AM permalink
Nice to see you back, ksdjdj. Hope your health has stabilized.

It's an interesting thread. I'd like to see whether your results are paying on a running basis, if you're willing to share those stats.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
November 24th, 2019 at 12:37:19 PM permalink
I am losing $3,475, i will probably add the p/l to the results summary from now on (so people don't have to search through the whole thread to work it out manually)
Also, on a few draws before March 27th, 2019, there was a very high chance that I missed some +EV plays that would have won. In the post I said "...I forgot to keep up to date with my "lotto bets", so I have probably missed some +EV opportunities over the last three or four Powerball draws....".

--------
For the next Powerball draw there is an extremely high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/27/19"
Odds: -1375
Estimated Tickets: ~12.10 million*** (or $24.2 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~95.943...%
Estimated EV: ~ +2.92...%
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 13.4% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
When will I bet; about 30% of the bet now, and 70% closer to when the draw closes.
***: this is an early estimate, as the txlottery website puts up an updated "sales estimate" closer to the draw date.

-------
Other info:

My real tickets estimate for this Powerball draw is 11.1 million +/1 a million tickets, see link below for their own estimate
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191123.pdf

If I didn't have access to the Powerball lottery's own sales estimates, then I would have put up a figure between 10.1 and 10.5 million tickets as the "middle amount" for my sales estimate. This method is similar to the "Mega Millions method", since the Mega Millions doesn't have a "sales estimate" page (so I have to use the previous sales on the lotto report website and/or the difference between the current "cash jackpot" and the previous "cash jackpot"and then divide that figure by about 0.34 for Powerball and 0.3765 for Mega Millions, to get the estimated ticket sales in $'s).

Note: Mega millions, is still -750, so I will have the rest of my bet closer to the draw date for that one (hoping for an increase in odds).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 24, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
November 25th, 2019 at 5:19:58 PM permalink
There is a small increase*** in the estimated edge on both the Mega Millions and Powerball "no jackpot" props.
The "No Jackpot Winner" for the Mega Millions went from -750 to -700,
and the "No Jackpot Winner" for the Powerball went from -1375 to -1300
Sports book: 5dimes.eu
***: I will write a new summary page later, as i still think the odds will either lengthen some more or at least stay the same, closer to the draw date.

-----
Other info:

Note: there are times when it is better to back the "no jackpot" as soon as they put up odds for it, see below:

On the Mega Millions drawn on the 12/17/13, I managed to get $13^^^ for that game
^^^: At the time, I could only get $500 down at each price, so i kept backing it in until it got down to $5.00
Ticket sales were $336,545,306, it was $1 per ticket , and I think it had a 1/258,890,000 chance of being hit, at the time (which would have been about a 27.2% chance of no winner)

If i just had the $500 bet @ the $13 for that game, I would have had about a 253.6% edge (but even @ $5 the edge was about 36%)
I can't remember my exact estimate, but i think it was 30% - 35% chance of "not being hit" (this was before the actual ticket sales were known)

The reason I am writing this is, I think once the price goes above $2.00 for the "no prop" is about the time to bet on it early (instead of waiting)

Those bets lost, but I still had a huge edge ( i would love to get those odds every-time it has a 25% to 30% chance of not being hit).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 25, 2019
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 500
  • Posts: 2839
November 26th, 2019 at 5:53:35 AM permalink
i live in the US.
can i play on www.5dimes.eu?

if so, is it easy to deposit and withdraw $?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
November 26th, 2019 at 2:56:41 PM permalink
From the link below, It looks like it caters to North American players,
https://www.5dimes.eu/fundingMethods.html

Bitcoin is my preferred deposit/withdrawal method, you should read the links below, before you have any bets:

https://www.5dimes.eu/helpcenter.html
and
https://www.5dimes.eu/sb_rules.html

Just doing a quick search "can us residents play at international online casinos", i found this site below:
https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/online-gambling-is-it-legal

----
Summary:
Yes, you can play at 5dimes, as they currently accept US players
It is easy to deposit and withdraw using bitcoin, not sure about the other deposit/withdrawal methods.
Legality: Unsure, but from the "legalzoom.com" link above "... US citizens who simply place bets online are in the clear." (I know you didn't ask about this specifically, but you should check/research the legality yourself).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
November 26th, 2019 at 3:07:07 PM permalink
For the next Mega Millions draw there is a high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/26/2019"
Odds: -700
Estimated Tickets: 17 to 20 million (or $34 to $40 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.603...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.97...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method" (1): 1/3 Kelly (use this method, if you haven't had your bet yet)
Bet Amount (1): ~ 16.3% of bank roll
"Staking Method" (2): 2/9 Kelly (use this method, if you have had about a third of your bet at the earlier price, like I did)
Bet Amount (2): ~ 10.8% of bank roll (i have already had ~5.2% of my bank roll @ the odds of -750, earlier)
Will I have a bet: yes
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
November 26th, 2019 at 10:48:05 PM permalink
For the Mega Millions draw on the 11/26/2019, I put 1200 down to win 160, and then i put 2380 to win 340 (since i was using "bet amount (2)" mentioned in my previous post, i wanted to bet about 16.0% of my bank roll in total).

Opening Bal: 22,525
Finishing Bal: 23,025
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: (2975)
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.34...%
Odds Taken: -716 (since i had one bet @ -750, and the bigger bet @ -700)
Actual EV: ~ +7.52...%
Tickets Sold***: 17,597,900
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other info:

There are currently no odds up for the next Mega Millions draw, if they put up +EV odds again, my "raw" sales estimate is going to be, 18 million tickets (+/1 a million) and i will probably use 20.5 million tickets as the figure to work out my estimated chances for the "no jackpot winner"(since i prefer my estimate to be over the actual ticket sales, when betting on this prop)

I will update the post for the Powerball being drawn on the 11/27/2019 closer to game time (about 12-15 hours from now)
Note: as of this post, you can still get -1300 for the "no jackpot winner" prop
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 26, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
November 27th, 2019 at 12:20:31 PM permalink
For the next Powerball draw there is a good chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/27/2019"
Odds: -1300
Estimated Tickets: 12 to 13 million (or $24 to $26 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~95.64...% (based on 13 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.00...% (based on 13 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method" (1): 1/3 Kelly (use this method, if you haven't had your bet yet)
Bet Amount (1): ~ 13% of bank roll
"Staking Method" (2): 3/13 Kelly (use this method, if you have had about 30% of your bet at the earlier price, like I did)
Bet Amount (2): ~9% of bank roll at the current odds (i have already had ~4% of my bank roll @ the odds of -1375, earlier)
Will I have a bet: yes
Note: this is my updated sales estimate for the Powerball (my earlier one was, 11.1 million tickets (+/- 1 million tickets)

------
Other info:

For at least the next couple of rolls, I will probably bet "late" if there are still +EV opportunities, since the current trend at 5d seems to be to "increase or at least don't change the no prop odds closer to the draw date".

------
Update (~1250 pm)
for the next Mega Millions, they just put up -550 for the no prop, so that looks like it will be good value*** again.
***: ~+10.4% EV (based on 20.5 million tickets)
I will put up a proper summary closer to the draw date.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 27, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 464
November 27th, 2019 at 5:48:29 PM permalink
Just a quick update:
The odds for the "No jackpot winner" in this Powerball is now: -1200
Estimated EV: ~ +3.6%
Bet Amount (1): ~ 14.4% of bank roll
Bet Amount (2): have about 14.4% of your bank roll less any % of your bank roll you may have already bet at the earlier price(s), see example below:
eg: if you bet 4% of your bank roll earlier, then bet about 10.4% of your bank roll at the new price.

FYI: I will be away from my pc for a couple of hours, so my next update will probably be a results update.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 500
  • Posts: 2839
November 27th, 2019 at 9:05:46 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Just a quick update:
The odds for the "No jackpot winner" in this Powerball is now: -1200
Estimated EV: ~ +3.6%
Bet Amount (1): ~ 14.4% of bank roll
Bet Amount (2): have about 14.4% of your bank roll less any % of your bank roll you may have already bet at the earlier price(s), see example below:
eg: if you bet 4% of your bank roll earlier, then bet about 10.4% of your bank roll at the new price.

FYI: I will be away from my pc for a couple of hours, so my next update will probably be a results update.

why did you choose 14.4%? (that's 1/7)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

  • Jump to: