No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet
October 27th, 2018 at 5:20:10 AM
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Game: Powerball
Bookmaker: 5dimes.eu
Bet Prop: Will the powerball jackpot be won on the 10/27/2018?
Yes: -170
No: +150 / or/ $2.50
Chance of 'no jackpot': 62.8%***
Estimated Player edge on the 'no jackpot' prop: 57% (62.8% x $2.50)
62.8%*** I used the lowest 'no jackpot' estimate for working out the estimated player edge, (see 3 estimates below)
The 3 estimated chance(s) for the 'no jackpot' being hit are:
(i): ~62.8% (texas lottery website, jackpot estimate on 10/24/18, which is about 136,012,143 tickets sold)
(ii): ~71.6% (texas lottery website, jackpot estimate on 10/26/18, which is about 97,475,369 tickets sold)
(iii): ~67.1% (using my own estimation, of about 116,550,000 tickets sold)
Please note: that even if all the estimates are 'way off', the 'no jackpot' being hit is still a +EV bet if 267,000,000 (or less) tickets are sold in this draw (that many tickets would be about a 40.1% chance of 'no jackpot' being hit)
Also note: the chance of 1 ticket winning the powerball is 1 in 292,201,338 (according to www.txlottery.org)
Also note: the odds of the 'no jackpot' prop with 5dimes may have changed since this post was written, (I personally managed to get 1000 @ +150 on it)
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Even though I haven't posted in a long time, I thought I may as well post this since it seems like a real good bet
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Update: 825 am (10/27/18) EST
managed to have another 650 @ +150, (because i originally wanted $1,650 @ +150, but was limited to $1000 on my first go at it)
Bookmaker: 5dimes.eu
Bet Prop: Will the powerball jackpot be won on the 10/27/2018?
Yes: -170
No: +150 / or/ $2.50
Chance of 'no jackpot': 62.8%***
Estimated Player edge on the 'no jackpot' prop: 57% (62.8% x $2.50)
62.8%*** I used the lowest 'no jackpot' estimate for working out the estimated player edge, (see 3 estimates below)
The 3 estimated chance(s) for the 'no jackpot' being hit are:
(i): ~62.8% (texas lottery website, jackpot estimate on 10/24/18, which is about 136,012,143 tickets sold)
(ii): ~71.6% (texas lottery website, jackpot estimate on 10/26/18, which is about 97,475,369 tickets sold)
(iii): ~67.1% (using my own estimation, of about 116,550,000 tickets sold)
Please note: that even if all the estimates are 'way off', the 'no jackpot' being hit is still a +EV bet if 267,000,000 (or less) tickets are sold in this draw (that many tickets would be about a 40.1% chance of 'no jackpot' being hit)
Also note: the chance of 1 ticket winning the powerball is 1 in 292,201,338 (according to www.txlottery.org)
Also note: the odds of the 'no jackpot' prop with 5dimes may have changed since this post was written, (I personally managed to get 1000 @ +150 on it)
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Even though I haven't posted in a long time, I thought I may as well post this since it seems like a real good bet
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Update: 825 am (10/27/18) EST
managed to have another 650 @ +150, (because i originally wanted $1,650 @ +150, but was limited to $1000 on my first go at it)
October 27th, 2018 at 6:40:58 AM
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LMAO! Now that The Mega Millions Jackpot has been won, all eyes are on The Powerball now! :D What a record breaking week for The Lottery! :D
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
"Olive oil is processed but it only has one
ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D
I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;)
Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D
"For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
November 1st, 2018 at 3:23:24 AM
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Result/Betting Summary:
Starting Bank: $26,000^
Strategy used: 1/6 x Kelly^
Bet: $1,650 (on the 'Jackpot not won' prop) @ $2.50
Result: Jackpot was hit (in other words my bet lost)
Current Bank: $24,350
^: these figures were not mentioned in the OP
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Lotto Draw Details:
Date of Draw: 10/27/18
Result of Draw: Powerball Jackpot was won
Tickets Sold: 86,413,920***
86,413,920***: see link below for ticket sales information
http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Based on the above tickets sales information the chance of Jackpot being hit was about 25.6% and
the chance of Jackpot not being hit was ~74.4%
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'hypothetical scenario'
If I had known that 86,413,920 tickets were going to be sold in this draw (but not the actual result of the draw), I would have bet between $2480 and $2500 (1/6 Kelly) @ $2.50 on the 'No side' of 'will the jackpot be won' prop, with a Player Edge of ~86%.
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FYI
For the Powerball game on 10/31/18 there were 13,594,526 tickets sold.
The online bookmaker was offering
+2000 (for 'the jackpot will be won' prop) and
-4000 ( for ''the jackpot will not be won' prop)
based on those figures the 'house' had an edge on either outcome, (there was a ~4.546% chance for Yes, and ~95.454% for No)
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I will post again the next time I see an estimated player edge of about 20% or more
Starting Bank: $26,000^
Strategy used: 1/6 x Kelly^
Bet: $1,650 (on the 'Jackpot not won' prop) @ $2.50
Result: Jackpot was hit (in other words my bet lost)
Current Bank: $24,350
^: these figures were not mentioned in the OP
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Lotto Draw Details:
Date of Draw: 10/27/18
Result of Draw: Powerball Jackpot was won
Tickets Sold: 86,413,920***
86,413,920***: see link below for ticket sales information
http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Based on the above tickets sales information the chance of Jackpot being hit was about 25.6% and
the chance of Jackpot not being hit was ~74.4%
---------------------
'hypothetical scenario'
If I had known that 86,413,920 tickets were going to be sold in this draw (but not the actual result of the draw), I would have bet between $2480 and $2500 (1/6 Kelly) @ $2.50 on the 'No side' of 'will the jackpot be won' prop, with a Player Edge of ~86%.
---------------------
FYI
For the Powerball game on 10/31/18 there were 13,594,526 tickets sold.
The online bookmaker was offering
+2000 (for 'the jackpot will be won' prop) and
-4000 ( for ''the jackpot will not be won' prop)
based on those figures the 'house' had an edge on either outcome, (there was a ~4.546% chance for Yes, and ~95.454% for No)
----------------------
I will post again the next time I see an estimated player edge of about 20% or more
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2018
November 1st, 2018 at 3:40:31 AM
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Yeah Nathan, it is pretty funny what you can bet on nowadays, and it was a big week for both the 'big lotto games'
Also, I will have to wait at least another 2 or more months before this opportunity will happen for me again, since the bookmaker I use only puts up 'really skewed player edge' odds for the 'big' jackpots.
Also, I will have to wait at least another 2 or more months before this opportunity will happen for me again, since the bookmaker I use only puts up 'really skewed player edge' odds for the 'big' jackpots.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2018
November 1st, 2018 at 6:41:35 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjFor the Powerball game on 10/31/18 there were 13,594,526 tickets sold.
The online bookmaker was offering
+2000 (for 'the jackpot will be won' prop) and
-4000 ( for ''the jackpot will not be won' prop)
based on those figures the 'house' had an edge on either outcome, (there was a ~4.546% chance for Yes, and ~95.454% for No)
I think you forgot to divide by 40 for the house edge on the no winner bet. Here is my analysis.
No Winner
| Outcome | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| No winner | 0.025 | 0.954541 | 0.023864 |
| Winner | -1 | 0.045459 | -0.045459 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.021595 |
Winner
| Outcome | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 20 | 0.045459 | 0.909177 |
| No winner | -1 | 0.954541 | -0.954541 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.045364 |
So, house edge of 2.16% on the no winner and 4.54% on a winner.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 10th, 2019 at 6:13:16 PM
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Thanks Wiz,
The reason for the post after the 'big jackpot' was won, was to mainly show each of the chances when the lotto jackpot is small, so I didn't forget to post the house edge figures (i just didn't post them), though in hind-sight I guess i should have since I went through the trouble of working out the chances.
your figures seem correct to me, but I usually work it out on a for one basis and then take away 1, eg (0.045459 x 21) - 1 = - 4.54%*** player edge
***even though we get the same answer, just for peace of mind is my way of working out just as correct as your way, or is it mathematically better to express it your way? (i only ask because i have been mainly doing it this way for a long time, and it seems to get the same answer as the other way)
thanks again, and I always find both WoO/WoV websites very helpful (especially the Blackjack, Video Poker, and sports betting pages)
speaking of sports betting, I got $1.60 for the first score to be a touchdown for the Chief / Colts Game in 1-2 days, that bet is about 12.5% EV , based on a spread of 5 and total of 55.5, which is what those figures were when I had the bet .
I don't bet the house on it, but it seems to be profitable at an edge of about 7% or greater (taking no other factors into account), when using your Prop Bet Calculator
The reason for the post after the 'big jackpot' was won, was to mainly show each of the chances when the lotto jackpot is small, so I didn't forget to post the house edge figures (i just didn't post them), though in hind-sight I guess i should have since I went through the trouble of working out the chances.
your figures seem correct to me, but I usually work it out on a for one basis and then take away 1, eg (0.045459 x 21) - 1 = - 4.54%*** player edge
***even though we get the same answer, just for peace of mind is my way of working out just as correct as your way, or is it mathematically better to express it your way? (i only ask because i have been mainly doing it this way for a long time, and it seems to get the same answer as the other way)
thanks again, and I always find both WoO/WoV websites very helpful (especially the Blackjack, Video Poker, and sports betting pages)
speaking of sports betting, I got $1.60 for the first score to be a touchdown for the Chief / Colts Game in 1-2 days, that bet is about 12.5% EV , based on a spread of 5 and total of 55.5, which is what those figures were when I had the bet .
I don't bet the house on it, but it seems to be profitable at an edge of about 7% or greater (taking no other factors into account), when using your Prop Bet Calculator
January 11th, 2019 at 6:44:25 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjThanks Wiz,
speaking of sports betting, I got $1.60 for the first score to be a touchdown for the Chief / Colts Game in 1-2 days, that bet is about 12.5% EV , based on a spread of 5 and total of 55.5, which is what those figures were when I had the bet .
I don't bet the house on it, but it seems to be profitable at an edge of about 7% or greater (taking no other factors into account), when using your Prop Bet Calculator
I think the potential weather issues are also good for your side of the first score being a touchdown.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
March 27th, 2019 at 4:58:47 PM
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There is a +EV opportunity for tonight's Powerball at the website below:
https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_178
scroll down to > Other sports > and click on Lotto
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Bet details:
Prop: "32 No Jackpot Winner 03/27/19"
Odds: +195 ($2.95)
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 61.9327...%
EV: +82.7...%
Bet size: about 14% of current "betting bank-roll"
"staking method": 1/3 kelly
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Figures used for working out chances of a NO jackpot winner.
my own early estimate: 125,000,000 tickets ($250,000,000)
official powerball lotto website, early*** estimate: 117,199,237.5 tickets ($234,398,475)
***: https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20190323.pdf
official powerball lotto website, late^^^ estimate: 132,278,873 tickets ($264,557,746)
^^^: https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20190327.pdf
my current estimate is 140,000,000 tickets ($280,000,000)
Note: i always use the "highest number of tickets estimate" when betting the "No jackpot winner" prop.
Odds of 1 ticket winning powerball: 1/292,201,338
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Other info:
The early odds were actually $3.65, 14 hours ago, but my bitcoin deposit with 5dimes was delayed, so I had to take $2.95.
I have been working hard grinding away at other +EV opportunities and I forgot to keep up to date with my "lotto bets", so I have probably missed some +EV opportunities over the last three or four Powerball draws.
"Break-even" point: the "no prop" @ odds of $2.95 becomes a "bad bet" if, more than about 315,000,000 tickets ($630,000,000) are sold in this draw.
Note: my eyes glaze over when I try to learn how to use log functions, so the figure above is only an estimate for the "break-even" point @ odds of $2.95.
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Update (about 810 pm EST):
the odds are now $2.55, and the +EV is about 58% (so it is still a really good bet)
I wrote this hastily , so the spelling etc hasn't been checked, but the math should be correct.
Update 2:
I switched from 1/6 kelly to 1/3 kelly because I have a stable income now (before I was just using my capital, with no major source of income to help with any bad swings)
update 3 (about 1035 pm EST):
Last time i looked the odds were $2.45, so the bet had a closing EV of 51.xxx%
https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_178
scroll down to > Other sports > and click on Lotto
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Bet details:
Prop: "32 No Jackpot Winner 03/27/19"
Odds: +195 ($2.95)
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 61.9327...%
EV: +82.7...%
Bet size: about 14% of current "betting bank-roll"
"staking method": 1/3 kelly
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Figures used for working out chances of a NO jackpot winner.
my own early estimate: 125,000,000 tickets ($250,000,000)
official powerball lotto website, early*** estimate: 117,199,237.5 tickets ($234,398,475)
***: https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20190323.pdf
official powerball lotto website, late^^^ estimate: 132,278,873 tickets ($264,557,746)
^^^: https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20190327.pdf
my current estimate is 140,000,000 tickets ($280,000,000)
Note: i always use the "highest number of tickets estimate" when betting the "No jackpot winner" prop.
Odds of 1 ticket winning powerball: 1/292,201,338
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Other info:
The early odds were actually $3.65, 14 hours ago, but my bitcoin deposit with 5dimes was delayed, so I had to take $2.95.
I have been working hard grinding away at other +EV opportunities and I forgot to keep up to date with my "lotto bets", so I have probably missed some +EV opportunities over the last three or four Powerball draws.
"Break-even" point: the "no prop" @ odds of $2.95 becomes a "bad bet" if, more than about 315,000,000 tickets ($630,000,000) are sold in this draw.
Note: my eyes glaze over when I try to learn how to use log functions, so the figure above is only an estimate for the "break-even" point @ odds of $2.95.
--------------------
Update (about 810 pm EST):
the odds are now $2.55, and the +EV is about 58% (so it is still a really good bet)
I wrote this hastily , so the spelling etc hasn't been checked, but the math should be correct.
Update 2:
I switched from 1/6 kelly to 1/3 kelly because I have a stable income now (before I was just using my capital, with no major source of income to help with any bad swings)
update 3 (about 1035 pm EST):
Last time i looked the odds were $2.45, so the bet had a closing EV of 51.xxx%
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 27, 2019
March 30th, 2019 at 7:46:21 PM
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Betting summary:
Previous balance: 24350
Bet size: 3400 ( roughly 14%)
Result : bet lost (as the jackpot was won)
Current balance: 20950
__________
Other info:
About 134.1 million tickets were sold according to the link below:
http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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update (about 950 pm):
based on the tickets 134,060,942 tickets sold, the chance of No jackpot winner was about 63.2%.
Previous balance: 24350
Bet size: 3400 ( roughly 14%)
Result : bet lost (as the jackpot was won)
Current balance: 20950
__________
Other info:
About 134.1 million tickets were sold according to the link below:
http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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update (about 950 pm):
based on the tickets 134,060,942 tickets sold, the chance of No jackpot winner was about 63.2%.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 30, 2019
March 30th, 2019 at 7:50:03 PM
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Probability of no jackpot winner is:
(1-1/292201338)^(number of tickets sold)
for 140 million tickets, probability of no jackpot winner is 61.93%
That would be assuming all the tickets have randomly chosen numbers. In reality, people tend to pick 7 and 11 more frequently and 13 less frequently, and using dates to choose numbers means more numbers<=31 (so more duplicates), so I would increase the probability of no jackpot winner a bit... say 63%.
(1-1/292201338)^(number of tickets sold)
for 140 million tickets, probability of no jackpot winner is 61.93%
That would be assuming all the tickets have randomly chosen numbers. In reality, people tend to pick 7 and 11 more frequently and 13 less frequently, and using dates to choose numbers means more numbers<=31 (so more duplicates), so I would increase the probability of no jackpot winner a bit... say 63%.
May 30th, 2019 at 6:19:00 PM
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There is a +EV opportunity for the next draw for Mega Millions at the website below:
https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_178
scroll down to > Other sports > and click on Lotto
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Bet details:
Prop: "36 No Jackpot Winner 05/31/19"
Odds: -600
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 91.9177...%***
EV: +7.237...%
Bet size: about 14.5% of current "betting bank-roll"
"staking method": 1/3 kelly
***: Based on an estimate of $51 million worth of tickets sold (25.5 million tickets)
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Change of betting style:
Since I am missing out on some good +EV opportunities, I am now betting on all +EV outcomes that are either "greater than +20% estimated EV" or have an EV greater than "('odds'-1)/3^^^", whichever is less.
^^^: For the above game, the odds are about $1.166666, so the formula would look like this:
(1.166666-1)/3 = 0.166666/3 = 0.05555... =~5.555...%
Since 7.237% EV is greater than 5.555...%, I decided to have the bet.
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Other Info:
At least $93 million worth of tickets need to be sold for the bet to near the "break-even" EV @ odds of -600.
https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_178
scroll down to > Other sports > and click on Lotto
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Bet details:
Prop: "36 No Jackpot Winner 05/31/19"
Odds: -600
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 91.9177...%***
EV: +7.237...%
Bet size: about 14.5% of current "betting bank-roll"
"staking method": 1/3 kelly
***: Based on an estimate of $51 million worth of tickets sold (25.5 million tickets)
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Change of betting style:
Since I am missing out on some good +EV opportunities, I am now betting on all +EV outcomes that are either "greater than +20% estimated EV" or have an EV greater than "('odds'-1)/3^^^", whichever is less.
^^^: For the above game, the odds are about $1.166666, so the formula would look like this:
(1.166666-1)/3 = 0.166666/3 = 0.05555... =~5.555...%
Since 7.237% EV is greater than 5.555...%, I decided to have the bet.
-----------------
Other Info:
At least $93 million worth of tickets need to be sold for the bet to near the "break-even" EV @ odds of -600.
May 30th, 2019 at 7:48:19 PM
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They sold about 22.3 million tickets for last draw. This is a very rough approximation by taking number of tickets hitting just the powerball and dividing by the probability of winning said amount.
I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.
I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.
May 30th, 2019 at 9:55:52 PM
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Quote: rsactuaryThey sold about 22.3 million tickets for last draw. This is a very rough approximation by taking number of tickets hitting just the powerball and dividing by the probability of winning said amount.
I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.
Thanks for the post, I wouldn't be surprised if the ticket sales are above 30 million, but I am not going to change my early estimate for the draw (at this time).
Here is one of the methods I use to estimate ticket sales, divide the CVO*** increase from the previous draw to the current draw and divide by "Allocated From Sales To Fund Jackpot", which is .376509^^^ at the moment.
So, using the method above we get ($281.1 million - $263.3 million) / 0.376509 = 17.8/0.376509 = ~ $47.276... million worth of tickets (or ~23.638 million tickets).
*** https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html
^^^ http://www.lottoreport.com/MMRules.htm
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I have said in past posts that the Mega Millions is "harder" to estimate ticket sales for compared to Powerball, because they don't have an "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" anymore (Powerball^*^ still does, see below))
^*^ https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 30, 2019
May 30th, 2019 at 9:57:30 PM
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Quote: rsactuaryThey sold about 22.3 million tickets for last draw. This is a very rough approximation by taking number of tickets hitting just the powerball and dividing by the probability of winning said amount.
I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.
What is the significance of 25.5 mil tickets sold?
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
May 30th, 2019 at 10:15:56 PM
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Quote: MoosetonWhat is the significance of 25.5 mil tickets sold?
That figure is used to estimate the chance of the "jackpot not being won/or/hit".
If 1 ticket is sold, the chance of it not winning = 302,575,349/302,575,350
If 25.5 million random tickets are sold, the chance of the jackpot not being hit is:
(302,575,349/302,575,350)^ 25.5 million = 91.917704249840610532312914556221%.
Note: this is just an estimate, as we can't know how many tickets are sold until after the draw (i usually try to do two estimates, with the one on game day generally being my "better" estimate)
I am not going to say how I reached 25.5 million as an estimate, but if you look at my previous reply above, it explains how you can get an estimate of ticket sales based on the CVO.
May 31st, 2019 at 12:19:41 AM
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*edit* nvm I'm "slow" and didn't see "lotto" the first time I went to the page.
Where do they get the estimates for the number of tickets sold? Based off history/jackpot size, or ? I also assume the "probability of no jackpot" is the sum of odds of hitting and the number of estimated tickets sold?
Where do they get the estimates for the number of tickets sold? Based off history/jackpot size, or ? I also assume the "probability of no jackpot" is the sum of odds of hitting and the number of estimated tickets sold?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
May 31st, 2019 at 12:59:15 PM
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Sorry, don't have time for a full post , so below is just the updated estimate range for ticket sales.
Most likely the ticket sales will be between: 24 to 29 million (26.5 million, middle)
THis will reduce the estimated EV slightly but it should still be a good bet,
Most likely the ticket sales will be between: 24 to 29 million (26.5 million, middle)
THis will reduce the estimated EV slightly but it should still be a good bet,
May 31st, 2019 at 1:13:02 PM
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How much can you reasonably get down on this bet before thy stop you or change the line dramatically? Is it just at one location?Quote: ksdjdjSorry, don't have time for a full post , so below is just the updated estimate range for ticket sales.
Most likely the ticket sales will be between: 24 to 29 million (26.5 million, middle)
THis will reduce the estimated EV slightly but it should still be a good bet,
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 1st, 2019 at 4:13:27 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfHow much can you reasonably get down on this bet before thy stop you or change the line dramatically? Is it just at one location?
You can bet to win $2,000 for less than even money odds (eg $12,000 @ -600) and you can bet $2000 on odds greater than even money (eg $2000 @ +450).
Note: if the odds change, you can have another bet at the new odds.
Note 2: About a year ago, the limits were $500, but I am happy that they increased it to $2000.
I think it is just available at 5d.
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For yesterday's Mega Millions I put 3000 down to win 500 (roughly 14.5% of bank roll).
Starting Bal: 20,950
Finishing Bal: 21,450
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 90.544...%
Odds Taken: -600
EV: +5.635...%
Tickets Sold***: 30,053,111^^^ (inc "just the jackpot")
*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
^^^: rsactuary posted earlier that my estimate was probably low, and they were right.
---------------------------
Update:
"How much can you reasonably get down on this bet before thy stop you or change the line dramatically?"
In another post on this thread, the odds changed from $3.65 (when i first notice the odds on offer for that game) to $2.95 (got my first $2000 on at this price) then they went to $2.55 (had another $1400 at this price) and closed at $2.45.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 1, 2019
June 1st, 2019 at 4:33:02 AM
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Quote: Romes...Where do they get the estimates for the number of tickets sold? Based off history/jackpot size, or ? I also assume the "probability of no jackpot" is the sum of odds of hitting and the number of estimated tickets sold?
Thanks for the post
Don't know how they work out the official estimated sales***, they only let the public see the Powerball estimates now (see links below).
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html
***: notice how the Powerball has a column that says "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" were you can actually view the official estimates, yet Mega Millions does not.
I think your 2nd question is wrong (if i am reading it right)
"Sum of odds" reads to me that it is more like a "raffle" or a draw where each ticket is different from every other ticket.
In the Mega Millions and other lottery draws, tickets can repeat, so even if they sell more than 300 million tickets, it doesn't guarantee that the jackpot will bet hit.
As I have said in other posts, communication isn't a strength of mine, so feel free to correct me if I misread your post.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 1, 2019
June 1st, 2019 at 7:30:09 AM
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Quote: rsactuaryThey sold about 22.3 million tickets for last draw. This is a very rough approximation by taking number of tickets hitting just the powerball and dividing by the probability of winning said amount.
I have to think given the size and the attention that this drawing is getting that they will sell well in excess of 25.5 million tickets.
I think I had my math wrong because they've changed the number of megaballs. There is now 25.
rough estimate of ticket sales for last night's draw is 842,135 x 25 = 21,053,375 ----> number of winners of the easiest prize (matching the megaball) times the number of megaballs.
June 1st, 2019 at 8:41:38 AM
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Thanks for the great details.Quote: ksdjdjYou can bet to win $2,000 for less than even money odds (eg $12,000 @ -600) and you can bet $2000 on odds greater than even money (eg $2000 @ +450).
Note: if the odds change, you can have another bet at the new odds.
Note 2: About a year ago, the limits were $500, but I am happy that they increased it to $2000.
I think it is just available at 5d.
----------------
For yesterday's Mega Millions I put 3000 down to win 500 (roughly 14.5% of bank roll).
Starting Bal: 20,950
Finishing Bal: 21,450
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 90.544...%
Odds Taken: -600
EV: +5.635...%
Tickets Sold***: 30,053,111^^^ (inc "just the jackpot")
*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
^^^: rsactuary posted earlier that my estimate was probably low, and they were right.
---------------------------
Update:
"How much can you reasonably get down on this bet before thy stop you or change the line dramatically?"
In another post on this thread, the odds changed from $3.65 (when i first notice the odds on offer for that game) to $2.95 (got my first $2000 on at this price) then they went to $2.55 (had another $1400 at this price) and closed at $2.45.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 1st, 2019 at 5:23:52 PM
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Quote: rsactuaryI think I had my math wrong because they've changed the number of megaballs. There is now 25.
rough estimate of ticket sales for last night's draw is 842,135 x 25 = 21,053,375 ----> number of winners of the easiest prize (matching the megaball) times the number of megaballs.
I think you were right with what you said earlier but wrong this time.
I think There is a ~1/37 chance of getting the easiest prize and a 1/25 of getting any prize with the mega ball
So 842,145 x 37 = ~ 31 million
I think the lotto report website had it as ~ 30 million tickets; so that is pretty close to 31.
Written by phone and I am at work, so didn’t have time to check the figures above
June 1st, 2019 at 8:07:48 PM
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Please stop using four-letter words around here.Quote: ksdjdj
Written by phone and I am at work, so didn’t have time to check the figures above
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 1st, 2019 at 11:41:43 PM
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All good, I just meant odds would be:Quote: ksdjdj...As I have said in other posts, communication isn't a strength of mine, so feel free to correct me if I misread your post.
P(MM Hit) = (1/259,000,000)*NumEntries = (1/259,000,000)*~30,000,000 = ~11.58%, which means the no is about 89.42%, but of course I'm "rounding" the odds and ticket sales... I was just looking to confirm this was also what you were doing to get the proper "No" odds.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 2nd, 2019 at 4:33:29 AM
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Quote: RomesAll good, I just meant odds would be:
P(MM Hit) = (1/259,000,000)*NumEntries = (1/259,000,000)*~30,000,000 = ~11.58%, which means the no is about 89.42%, but of course I'm "rounding" the odds and ticket sales... I was just looking to confirm this was also what you were doing to get the proper "No" odds.
No, i think you are wrong, but I am not good at explaining why, I think it has something to do with binomial distribution ?
see links below:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/binomial-distribution.html
note: on the wikipedia page, scroll down to the "biased coin example" (about 20% of the way down the page).
June 2nd, 2019 at 3:41:42 PM
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Quote: RomesAll good, I just meant odds would be:
P(MM Hit) = (1/259,000,000)*NumEntries = (1/259,000,000)*~30,000,000 = ~11.58%, which means the no is about 89.42%, but of course I'm "rounding" the odds and ticket sales... I was just looking to confirm this was also what you were doing to get the proper "No" odds.
This can give a rough estimate if ticket sales are low, but will be significantly off if ticket sales are higher.
The more precise way is:
Chance of "rollover" = (1 - "probability of winning")^number of tickets sold"
Using the numbers in your example this is:
(258,999,999/259,000,000)^30,000,000 = 89.06%.
June 2nd, 2019 at 10:12:34 PM
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Assuming these figures are correct, the chance of a rollover will be higher than 89.06 % since the 30 million picks are not all random (some people make picks based on birthdays, lucky numbers etc). ..There will be many more duplicate picks than if they were all random.Quote: tringlomaneThis can give a rough estimate if ticket sales are low, but will be significantly off if ticket sales are higher.
The more precise way is:
Chance of "rollover" = (1 - "probability of winning")^number of tickets sold"
Using the numbers in your example this is:
(258,999,999/259,000,000)^30,000,000 = 89.06%.
It’s all about making that GTA
June 3rd, 2019 at 2:53:58 PM
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Yeah I read somewhere (can't remember where) that about 70% of the tickets are automatic/machine picks and 30% are "self-picked".
------------------
For the next mega millions draw there is a probable +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "2 No Jackpot Winner 06/04/19"
Odds: - 550
Estimated Tickets: 32 million to 35 million
Estimated Chance: ~89.08% to ~89.96%
Estimated EV: ~ +5.27% to ~ +6.32% (middle ~ +5.8%)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 10.6% of bank roll
Will I have a bet***: yes
***: Even though it doesn't quite make it, using my new "rule" and the "average Estimated EV", I had a bet because there is still "plenty of margin of error^^^" and also the Tuesday draw is usually not as big, in terms of tickets sales (based on similar jackpots when compared to the other drawing day)
^^^: The "break-even" point @ odds of -550, is more than 50 million tickets.
------------------
For the next mega millions draw there is a probable +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "2 No Jackpot Winner 06/04/19"
Odds: - 550
Estimated Tickets: 32 million to 35 million
Estimated Chance: ~89.08% to ~89.96%
Estimated EV: ~ +5.27% to ~ +6.32% (middle ~ +5.8%)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 10.6% of bank roll
Will I have a bet***: yes
***: Even though it doesn't quite make it, using my new "rule" and the "average Estimated EV", I had a bet because there is still "plenty of margin of error^^^" and also the Tuesday draw is usually not as big, in terms of tickets sales (based on similar jackpots when compared to the other drawing day)
^^^: The "break-even" point @ odds of -550, is more than 50 million tickets.
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:27:17 PM
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On the first MM draw after a jackpot win, there are about 11 million (t) tickets sold on average. There are 302,575,350 (c) combinations.
((c - 1) / c)^t =~ 96.4% chance of a rollover. So fair odds would be about -2700.
I must be missing something or -550 is a very +ev opportunity
((c - 1) / c)^t =~ 96.4% chance of a rollover. So fair odds would be about -2700.
I must be missing something or -550 is a very +ev opportunity
It’s all about making that GTA
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:39:59 PM
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Quote: Ace2On the first MM draw after a jackpot win, there are about 11 million (t) tickets sold on average. There are 302,575,350 (c) combinations.
((c - 1) / c)^t =~ 96.4% chance of a rollover. So fair odds would be about -2700.
I must be missing something or -550 is a very +ev opportunity
The next Mega millions has rolled to ~307 million cash value.
I think it is the powerball that is starting a new roll?
June 3rd, 2019 at 10:19:20 PM
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I believe the reason it appears to be a positive EV is because far more than 35 million tix should be sold. Look at the history - it seems like after the second jackpot over 400 million doesn’t hit, this is when ticket sales explode to 50 or 60 million.
Odds of -550 is an implied probability of 11/13.
Log (11/13) / Log ((c - 1) / c) = 50,546,448 which is the breakeven level for the bet. Less tickets sold it’s positive EV, more tickets sold it’s negative EV.
All historical data is on lottoreport.com
Odds of -550 is an implied probability of 11/13.
Log (11/13) / Log ((c - 1) / c) = 50,546,448 which is the breakeven level for the bet. Less tickets sold it’s positive EV, more tickets sold it’s negative EV.
All historical data is on lottoreport.com
It’s all about making that GTA
June 4th, 2019 at 1:10:21 AM
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You could be right, I will have a look in about 12 hours and update.
I know I am repeating myself but the mega millions is a lot harder to pick the sales for than powerball .
Also, I don’t live in the US so I don’t get to see the “hype” in the news etc.
Thanks for putting the “log function” up there , I have been looking for it on the internet but haven’t found it shown in a way I could understand.
Update (about 1 pm Pac time)
38 - 46 million is the new estimated ticket sales.
I know I am repeating myself but the mega millions is a lot harder to pick the sales for than powerball .
Also, I don’t live in the US so I don’t get to see the “hype” in the news etc.
Thanks for putting the “log function” up there , I have been looking for it on the internet but haven’t found it shown in a way I could understand.
Update (about 1 pm Pac time)
38 - 46 million is the new estimated ticket sales.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 4, 2019
June 4th, 2019 at 1:56:43 PM
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Usually not a ton of hype unless something crosses the 1 billion threshold.Quote: ksdjdj...Also, I don’t live in the US so I don’t get to see the “hype” in the news etc...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 5th, 2019 at 4:37:18 AM
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For yesterday's Mega Millions I put 2255 down to win 410 (roughly 10.5% of bank roll).
Starting Bal: 21,450
Finishing Bal: 21,860
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 89.675...%
Odds Taken: -550
EV: +5.97...%
Tickets Sold***: 32,973,184 (inc "just the jackpot")
*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Interesting to note that 25 was the only number less than 31 drawn (can't put a figure on how much that is worth, but it has to be good for betting on the "no winner prop")
----------------
Early estimated number of tickets for 06/07/19 Mega Millions draw.
49 - 55 million (52 million used for working out estimated chance below)
estimated chance for "no winner": 84.209...%
odds offered: none yet for this draw
minimum odds I would like for the no prop: -330
minimum odds I would like for the yes prop^^^: +660
^^^: I have never seen the yes prop @ +EV, so this is just "wishful thinking"
Starting Bal: 21,450
Finishing Bal: 21,860
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 89.675...%
Odds Taken: -550
EV: +5.97...%
Tickets Sold***: 32,973,184 (inc "just the jackpot")
*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Interesting to note that 25 was the only number less than 31 drawn (can't put a figure on how much that is worth, but it has to be good for betting on the "no winner prop")
----------------
Early estimated number of tickets for 06/07/19 Mega Millions draw.
49 - 55 million (52 million used for working out estimated chance below)
estimated chance for "no winner": 84.209...%
odds offered: none yet for this draw
minimum odds I would like for the no prop: -330
minimum odds I would like for the yes prop^^^: +660
^^^: I have never seen the yes prop @ +EV, so this is just "wishful thinking"
June 6th, 2019 at 12:22:37 PM
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still no odds on offer***
***: in the past they sometimes they skipped a draw before they put up odds again, so nothing to worry about.
***: in the past they sometimes they skipped a draw before they put up odds again, so nothing to worry about.
June 7th, 2019 at 12:14:30 AM
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If 5dimes don't put any odds up within 5 hours, I will not be able to bet on this draw.
I will not be be updating my sales estimate for this draw, so just use my early one if they put up odds between now and the drawing on the 06/07/2019, for the Mega Millions.
I will not be be updating my sales estimate for this draw, so just use my early one if they put up odds between now and the drawing on the 06/07/2019, for the Mega Millions.
June 7th, 2019 at 10:15:22 PM
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Did they end up putting lines up? I was curious what they were and appreciate your updates on the odds, but also how you're doing and betting. Interesting stuff!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 8th, 2019 at 4:28:28 AM
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Quote: RomesDid they end up putting lines up? I was curious what they were and appreciate your updates on the odds, but also how you're doing and betting. Interesting stuff!
For the Mega Millions I don't know if they put up lines as I had a really busy day.
They put a lines for the Powerball between my last post and this one.
Since it looks like the Mega Millions was hit, I will not be posting any lotto bets for a while..
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There was a ~87.145...% chance of no jackpot winner (based on ticket sales below)
Ticket Sales were: 41,631,077*** (inc "Just the Jackpot")
***: since the "no jackpot winner" side is generally the side that can have value , I prefer my estimate to be more than the actual sales.
Result: Jackpot was hit according to lotto report website.
August 13th, 2019 at 5:57:56 AM
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I am surprised to announce that there is a small player edge for the Powerball and Mega Millions this week (based on my estimates for ticket sales).
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a probable +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 08/13/19"
Odds: - 2150
Estimated Tickets: 9.5 million to 10.8 million
Estimated Chance: ~96.4935...% (based on 10.8 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.9816...% (based on 10.8 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 7% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no
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For the next Powerball draw there is a possible +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: " No Jackpot Winner 08/14/19"
Odds: - 1800
Estimated Tickets: 13.4 million to 15 million
Estimated Chance: ~94.99608...% (based on 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.27364...% (based on 15 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 1.64% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no
-----
One reason for this update is because the no jackpot winner is slightly positive "a lot earlier than usual".
note: because I haven't had an actual bet on these two props, I will not be updating the sales estimates for these draws
also note: remember Mega Millions and Powerball cost $2 per ticket (useful for comparing actual ticket sales against my estimates)
-------
For the next Mega Millions draw there is a probable +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 08/13/19"
Odds: - 2150
Estimated Tickets: 9.5 million to 10.8 million
Estimated Chance: ~96.4935...% (based on 10.8 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.9816...% (based on 10.8 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 7% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no
-------
For the next Powerball draw there is a possible +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: " No Jackpot Winner 08/14/19"
Odds: - 1800
Estimated Tickets: 13.4 million to 15 million
Estimated Chance: ~94.99608...% (based on 15 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 0.27364...% (based on 15 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 1.64% of bank roll (if i was having a bet)
Will I have a bet: no
-----
One reason for this update is because the no jackpot winner is slightly positive "a lot earlier than usual".
note: because I haven't had an actual bet on these two props, I will not be updating the sales estimates for these draws
also note: remember Mega Millions and Powerball cost $2 per ticket (useful for comparing actual ticket sales against my estimates)
August 14th, 2019 at 11:47:57 PM
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The Mega millions and Powerball were not hit and the tickets sales*** for the draws on the 13th and 14th were: 9,217,473 for Mega Millions and, 13,887,244 for Powerball.
***: according to this link >>> https://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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5dimes have put up new lines for "Mega Millions Jackpot Winner - Friday, August 16, 2019"
The odds for "...Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 08/16/19" are: +1575
The odds for "...No Jackpot Winner 08/16/19" are -3150
My sales estimate is between 9.5 million to 11.45 million tickets.
For the 11.45 million tickets sold estimate, there is an EV of -37.799...% for the "yes prop"
and an EV of -0.65676% for the "no prop".
For the 9.5 million tickets sold estimate, there is an EV of -48.226...% for the "yes prop"
and an EV of -0.01445...% for the "no prop" (based on 9.5 million sales).
Since all the estimated values are negative, I will not be having a bet on this draw.
----
I don't plan to write another post until the prop has a high potential for a + EV play.
Also, I usually don't find potential +EV plays until the jackpot reaches about $250 to $350 million, so that was why I was surprised that there was a slight + EV for the draws on the 13th and 14th.
***: according to this link >>> https://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
----
5dimes have put up new lines for "Mega Millions Jackpot Winner - Friday, August 16, 2019"
The odds for "...Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 08/16/19" are: +1575
The odds for "...No Jackpot Winner 08/16/19" are -3150
My sales estimate is between 9.5 million to 11.45 million tickets.
For the 11.45 million tickets sold estimate, there is an EV of -37.799...% for the "yes prop"
and an EV of -0.65676% for the "no prop".
For the 9.5 million tickets sold estimate, there is an EV of -48.226...% for the "yes prop"
and an EV of -0.01445...% for the "no prop" (based on 9.5 million sales).
Since all the estimated values are negative, I will not be having a bet on this draw.
----
I don't plan to write another post until the prop has a high potential for a + EV play.
Also, I usually don't find potential +EV plays until the jackpot reaches about $250 to $350 million, so that was why I was surprised that there was a slight + EV for the draws on the 13th and 14th.
August 15th, 2019 at 6:11:40 AM
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Quote: x
I don't plan to write another post until the prop has a high potential for a + EV play.
Also, I usually don't find potential +EV plays until the jackpot reaches about $250 to $350 million, so that was why I was surprised that there was a slight + EV for the draws on the 13th and 14th.
All this math is beyond me but I would think that ticket sales estimates are a fatal defect to any calculation that does not supply a significantly positive expectation. That 'one additional ticket' can result in a prize having to be shared.
August 15th, 2019 at 6:13:38 AM
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Sharing prizes not the issue for these purposes though. This is analysis of a Yes/No prop bet about whether at least one person will win jackpot on a given day.Quote: FleaStiffAll this math is beyond me but I would think that ticket sales estimates are a fatal defect to any calculation that does not supply a significantly positive expectation. That 'one additional ticket' can result in a prize having to be shared.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
August 15th, 2019 at 6:19:00 AM
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Oh, so its not related to a buyer of a lottery ticket having a positive expectation, but only toparticipants in The Bookies bet. I get it. Tnx.
November 20th, 2019 at 3:47:03 PM
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There is a solid player edge for the Mega Millions this week (based on my estimates for ticket sales).
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a decent +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/22/2019"
Odds: -800
Estimated Tickets: 15 million to 16.5 million
Estimated Chance: ~94.6928...% (based on 16.5 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ +6.53% (based on 16.5 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 17.4% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
------
Other info:
Chance of a single Mega Million ticket winning jackpot: 1/302,575,350
Ticket sales need to be above 35.6 million before this becomes a bad bet (in other words $71.2 million worth of tickets, since it is $2 per ticket)
There is a small edge (less than +1.2%)for the next powerball "no prop"(odds -1800) but I will not have a bet, so didn't do a post like I normally do for it.
Been sick for a couple of months, so that is why i have been away from my pc for a while
-----
Update ~355 pm (pac time)
FYI: According to the link below the last time the ticket sales was near $71.2 million was when the jackpot was $475 million on 06/04/19
https://www.lottoreport.com/mmsales.htm
The estimated jackpot is $208 Million for the draw i am betting the "no prop" on
-------
For the next Mega Millions draw there is a decent +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/22/2019"
Odds: -800
Estimated Tickets: 15 million to 16.5 million
Estimated Chance: ~94.6928...% (based on 16.5 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ +6.53% (based on 16.5 million...)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 17.4% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
------
Other info:
Chance of a single Mega Million ticket winning jackpot: 1/302,575,350
Ticket sales need to be above 35.6 million before this becomes a bad bet (in other words $71.2 million worth of tickets, since it is $2 per ticket)
There is a small edge (less than +1.2%)for the next powerball "no prop"(odds -1800) but I will not have a bet, so didn't do a post like I normally do for it.
Been sick for a couple of months, so that is why i have been away from my pc for a while
-----
Update ~355 pm (pac time)
FYI: According to the link below the last time the ticket sales was near $71.2 million was when the jackpot was $475 million on 06/04/19
https://www.lottoreport.com/mmsales.htm
The estimated jackpot is $208 Million for the draw i am betting the "no prop" on
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 20, 2019
November 20th, 2019 at 3:48:32 PM
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Hope you are hale and fully healthy again.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:34:25 PM
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Mega millions is still -800 for the no prop
Powerball is now -1600 for the no prop (if it gets to -1500, I will probably write a “what I am betting post” about it)
Powerball is now -1600 for the no prop (if it gets to -1500, I will probably write a “what I am betting post” about it)
November 23rd, 2019 at 3:17:31 AM
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For the Mega Millions draw on the 11/22/2019, I put 3800 down to win 475 (bet roughly 17.4% of bank roll).
Starting Bal: 21,860
Finishing Bal: 22,335
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.66...%
Odds Taken: -800
Actual EV: ~ +6.5.%
Tickets Sold***: 16,601,489 (all tickets, including "just the jackpot")
*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
------
For the Powerball game being drawn on the 11/23/2019, the "no prop" @ -1600, will likely have a small + edge ( see link below to get an estimate of the ticket sales for that game).
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
>>>> then click on the "view" link under the heading "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet"
Note: Estimating Mega Millions ticket sales is "more work" than Powerball, because they only publish estimated ticket sales for Powerball, on the txlottery website
Note 2: since i am not having a bet, i will not be posting my proper summary for this Powerball game.
Starting Bal: 21,860
Finishing Bal: 22,335
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.66...%
Odds Taken: -800
Actual EV: ~ +6.5.%
Tickets Sold***: 16,601,489 (all tickets, including "just the jackpot")
*** http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
------
For the Powerball game being drawn on the 11/23/2019, the "no prop" @ -1600, will likely have a small + edge ( see link below to get an estimate of the ticket sales for that game).
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
>>>> then click on the "view" link under the heading "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet"
Note: Estimating Mega Millions ticket sales is "more work" than Powerball, because they only publish estimated ticket sales for Powerball, on the txlottery website
Note 2: since i am not having a bet, i will not be posting my proper summary for this Powerball game.
November 23rd, 2019 at 2:51:47 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj...Powerball is now -1600 for the no prop (if it gets to -1500, I will probably write a “what I am betting post” about it)
Powerball is -1450, so i am going to have a bet, see summary below:
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For the next Powerball draw there is an extremely high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/23/2019"
Odds: -1450
Estimated Tickets: ~12.12 million*** (or $24.24 million worth of tickets)
***: I did the estimated tickets sales the "quick way" that is why I did not put it up as an "estimated tickets range" this time (more info to do with this at bottom of post)
Estimated Chance: ~95.937...%
Estimated EV: ~ +2.55...%
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 12.3% of bank roll
Will I have a bet: yes
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Additional info:
When the estimated sales are "low", i normally just use the txlotto website's "Official Lottery Estimation Worksheet" as my main or only way of estimating tickets sales, since I have never seen it too far away from the actual sales for this stage in the "jackpot roll".
For the estimated ticket sales I used the following links below:
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
and then click on view, or use the direct link for this draw, see below
https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191123.pdf
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Update (~315 pm):
The next Mega Millions draw looks good at -750 for the no prop.
My early estimate is up to 20 million ($40 million) tickets sold for the next draw
~6%+ is my early edge for the "no bettor", I will write a proper summary closer to the draw .
I am going to have 1/3 of my bet now at the -750, and hope for an increase^^^ in odds closer to the draw.
^^^: At 5dimes, I assume the "public money" is normally on the "yes prop" because, the odds either don't change or the "no prop" odds get bigger closer to draw time (at least for the early jackpot rolls).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 23, 2019
November 23rd, 2019 at 10:09:26 PM
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For the Powerball draw on the 11/23/2019, I put 2755 down to win 190 (bet roughly 12.3% of bank roll).
Starting Bal: 22,335
Finishing Bal: 22,525
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.9324...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: ~ +2.548...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,133,899
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/26/2019"
Odds: -750
Estimated Tickets: 17 to 20 million (or $34 to $40 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.603...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.08...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 15.2% of bank roll (currently have 5.2% of my bank-roll down, will bet the rest closer to game time)
Will I have a bet: yes
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Other info:
My actual estimate for this draw (before making adjustments to make the "no jackpot" bet "safer") is: 18 million tickets (+/- 1 million)
There are currently only odds up for the next Mega Millions, I will add information about the next Powerball closer to the draw date.
Starting Bal: 22,335
Finishing Bal: 22,525
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.9324...%
Odds Taken: -1450
Actual EV: ~ +2.548...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,133,899
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
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For the next Mega Millions draw there is a high chance it is going to be +EV on the "no jackpot winner" prop.
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 11/26/2019"
Odds: -750
Estimated Tickets: 17 to 20 million (or $34 to $40 million worth of tickets)
Estimated Chance: ~93.603...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +6.08...% (based on 20 million tickets sold)
"Staking Method": 1/3 Kelly
Bet Amount: ~ 15.2% of bank roll (currently have 5.2% of my bank-roll down, will bet the rest closer to game time)
Will I have a bet: yes
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Other info:
My actual estimate for this draw (before making adjustments to make the "no jackpot" bet "safer") is: 18 million tickets (+/- 1 million)
There are currently only odds up for the next Mega Millions, I will add information about the next Powerball closer to the draw date.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 23, 2019
