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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 27th, 2018 at 5:20:10 AM permalink
Game: Powerball

Bookmaker: 5dimes.eu

Bet Prop: Will the powerball jackpot be won on the 10/27/2018?

Yes: -170
No: +150 / or/ $2.50

Chance of 'no jackpot': 62.8%***

Estimated Player edge on the 'no jackpot' prop: 57% (62.8% x $2.50)

62.8%*** I used the lowest 'no jackpot' estimate for working out the estimated player edge, (see 3 estimates below)

The 3 estimated chance(s) for the 'no jackpot' being hit are:
(i): ~62.8% (texas lottery website, jackpot estimate on 10/24/18, which is about 136,012,143 tickets sold)
(ii): ~71.6% (texas lottery website, jackpot estimate on 10/26/18, which is about 97,475,369 tickets sold)
(iii): ~67.1% (using my own estimation, of about 116,550,000 tickets sold)

Please note: that even if all the estimates are 'way off', the 'no jackpot' being hit is still a +EV bet if 267,000,000 (or less) tickets are sold in this draw (that many tickets would be about a 40.1% chance of 'no jackpot' being hit)

Also note: the chance of 1 ticket winning the powerball is 1 in 292,201,338 (according to www.txlottery.org)

Also note: the odds of the 'no jackpot' prop with 5dimes may have changed since this post was written, (I personally managed to get 1000 @ +150 on it)

-------------------------------------------

Even though I haven't posted in a long time, I thought I may as well post this since it seems like a real good bet

--------------------------------------------
Update: 825 am (10/27/18) EST

managed to have another 650 @ +150, (because i originally wanted $1,650 @ +150, but was limited to $1000 on my first go at it)
Nathan
Nathan 
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October 27th, 2018 at 6:40:58 AM permalink
LMAO! Now that The Mega Millions Jackpot has been won, all eyes are on The Powerball now! :D What a record breaking week for The Lottery! :D
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 1st, 2018 at 3:23:24 AM permalink
Result/Betting Summary:

Starting Bank: $26,000^
Strategy used: 1/6 x Kelly^
Bet: $1,650 (on the 'Jackpot not won' prop) @ $2.50
Result: Jackpot was hit (in other words my bet lost)
Current Bank: $24,350

^: these figures were not mentioned in the OP
-------------------
Lotto Draw Details:

Date of Draw: 10/27/18
Result of Draw: Powerball Jackpot was won
Tickets Sold: 86,413,920***

86,413,920***: see link below for ticket sales information

http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Based on the above tickets sales information the chance of Jackpot being hit was about 25.6% and
the chance of Jackpot not being hit was ~74.4%
---------------------
'hypothetical scenario'

If I had known that 86,413,920 tickets were going to be sold in this draw (but not the actual result of the draw), I would have bet between $2480 and $2500 (1/6 Kelly) @ $2.50 on the 'No side' of 'will the jackpot be won' prop, with a Player Edge of ~86%.
---------------------
FYI

For the Powerball game on 10/31/18 there were 13,594,526 tickets sold.
The online bookmaker was offering

+2000 (for 'the jackpot will be won' prop) and
-4000 ( for ''the jackpot will not be won' prop)

based on those figures the 'house' had an edge on either outcome, (there was a ~4.546% chance for Yes, and ~95.454% for No)
----------------------

I will post again the next time I see an estimated player edge of about 20% or more
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2018
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 1st, 2018 at 3:40:31 AM permalink
Yeah Nathan, it is pretty funny what you can bet on nowadays, and it was a big week for both the 'big lotto games'

Also, I will have to wait at least another 2 or more months before this opportunity will happen for me again, since the bookmaker I use only puts up 'really skewed player edge' odds for the 'big' jackpots.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 1, 2018
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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November 1st, 2018 at 6:41:35 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

For the Powerball game on 10/31/18 there were 13,594,526 tickets sold.
The online bookmaker was offering

+2000 (for 'the jackpot will be won' prop) and
-4000 ( for ''the jackpot will not be won' prop)

based on those figures the 'house' had an edge on either outcome, (there was a ~4.546% chance for Yes, and ~95.454% for No)



I think you forgot to divide by 40 for the house edge on the no winner bet. Here is my analysis.

No Winner

Outcome Pays Probability Return
No winner 0.025 0.954541 0.023864
Winner -1 0.045459 -0.045459
Total 1.000000 -0.021595



Winner


Outcome Pays Probability Return
Winner 20 0.045459 0.909177
No winner -1 0.954541 -0.954541
Total 1.000000 -0.045364


So, house edge of 2.16% on the no winner and 4.54% on a winner.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 10th, 2019 at 6:13:16 PM permalink
Thanks Wiz,

The reason for the post after the 'big jackpot' was won, was to mainly show each of the chances when the lotto jackpot is small, so I didn't forget to post the house edge figures (i just didn't post them), though in hind-sight I guess i should have since I went through the trouble of working out the chances.

your figures seem correct to me, but I usually work it out on a for one basis and then take away 1, eg (0.045459 x 21) - 1 = - 4.54%*** player edge

***even though we get the same answer, just for peace of mind is my way of working out just as correct as your way, or is it mathematically better to express it your way? (i only ask because i have been mainly doing it this way for a long time, and it seems to get the same answer as the other way)

thanks again, and I always find both WoO/WoV websites very helpful (especially the Blackjack, Video Poker, and sports betting pages)

speaking of sports betting, I got $1.60 for the first score to be a touchdown for the Chief / Colts Game in 1-2 days, that bet is about 12.5% EV , based on a spread of 5 and total of 55.5, which is what those figures were when I had the bet .
I don't bet the house on it, but it seems to be profitable at an edge of about 7% or greater (taking no other factors into account), when using your Prop Bet Calculator
DRich
DRich
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
January 11th, 2019 at 6:44:25 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks Wiz,


speaking of sports betting, I got $1.60 for the first score to be a touchdown for the Chief / Colts Game in 1-2 days, that bet is about 12.5% EV , based on a spread of 5 and total of 55.5, which is what those figures were when I had the bet .
I don't bet the house on it, but it seems to be profitable at an edge of about 7% or greater (taking no other factors into account), when using your Prop Bet Calculator



I think the potential weather issues are also good for your side of the first score being a touchdown.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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March 27th, 2019 at 4:58:47 PM permalink
There is a +EV opportunity for tonight's Powerball at the website below:

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_178

scroll down to > Other sports > and click on Lotto

------------------
Bet details:

Prop: "32 No Jackpot Winner 03/27/19"
Odds: +195 ($2.95)
Chance of "No Jackpot Winner": 61.9327...%
EV: +82.7...%
Bet size: about 14% of current "betting bank-roll"
"staking method": 1/3 kelly

------------------
Figures used for working out chances of a NO jackpot winner.

my own early estimate: 125,000,000 tickets ($250,000,000)

official powerball lotto website, early*** estimate: 117,199,237.5 tickets ($234,398,475)

***: https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20190323.pdf

official powerball lotto website, late^^^ estimate: 132,278,873 tickets ($264,557,746)

^^^: https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20190327.pdf

my current estimate is 140,000,000 tickets ($280,000,000)

Note: i always use the "highest number of tickets estimate" when betting the "No jackpot winner" prop.

Odds of 1 ticket winning powerball: 1/292,201,338

-------------------

Other info:

The early odds were actually $3.65, 14 hours ago, but my bitcoin deposit with 5dimes was delayed, so I had to take $2.95.

I have been working hard grinding away at other +EV opportunities and I forgot to keep up to date with my "lotto bets", so I have probably missed some +EV opportunities over the last three or four Powerball draws.

"Break-even" point: the "no prop" @ odds of $2.95 becomes a "bad bet" if, more than about 315,000,000 tickets ($630,000,000) are sold in this draw.

Note: my eyes glaze over when I try to learn how to use log functions, so the figure above is only an estimate for the "break-even" point @ odds of $2.95.

--------------------
Update (about 810 pm EST):

the odds are now $2.55, and the +EV is about 58% (so it is still a really good bet)

I wrote this hastily , so the spelling etc hasn't been checked, but the math should be correct.

Update 2:

I switched from 1/6 kelly to 1/3 kelly because I have a stable income now (before I was just using my capital, with no major source of income to help with any bad swings)

update 3 (about 1035 pm EST):

Last time i looked the odds were $2.45, so the bet had a closing EV of 51.xxx%
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 27, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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March 30th, 2019 at 7:46:21 PM permalink
Betting summary:
Previous balance: 24350
Bet size: 3400 ( roughly 14%)
Result : bet lost (as the jackpot was won)
Current balance: 20950
__________
Other info:
About 134.1 million tickets were sold according to the link below:

http://www.lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

---------
update (about 950 pm):

based on the tickets 134,060,942 tickets sold, the chance of No jackpot winner was about 63.2%.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Mar 30, 2019
KevinAA
KevinAA
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
March 30th, 2019 at 7:50:03 PM permalink
Probability of no jackpot winner is:

(1-1/292201338)^(number of tickets sold)

for 140 million tickets, probability of no jackpot winner is 61.93%

That would be assuming all the tickets have randomly chosen numbers. In reality, people tend to pick 7 and 11 more frequently and 13 less frequently, and using dates to choose numbers means more numbers<=31 (so more duplicates), so I would increase the probability of no jackpot winner a bit... say 63%.

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