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Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 902
January 12th, 2021 at 4:07:59 PM permalink
Important info:
. With 5dimes, US and now also Australian players are listed as ",,, not allowed to register or play...", so even though I somehow managed to get my bet on, I am doubtful I will get paid if I win, but I will keep you posted either way.

Other info:
Odds are currently: +310 for the "(yes) Mega Million jackpot winner" (previously it was +360)

Because the Advertised Jackpot went from $615 million to $625 million, my updated estimated tickets, chance and EV's are now below:
Estimated Tickets: 96 million when betting on the "yes side"
Estimated Chance : 27.187...%
Estimated EV: 25.060...% (at the odds that I took, +360)

Note 1: "Unbiased" Estimate = ~101 million tickets

Note 2: "No Winner" Estimate = ~123 million tickets (estimate that I would use, if the "no winner" side had an estimated +EV)

Note 3: The estimated EV for the "yes side" is ~11.466...% (at the current odds of +310)

Note 4: You could validly argue that my overall EV for the bet is about -100% to -98.75% (since I am guessing that I have between a 0% and 1% chance of getting paid)
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 902
January 12th, 2021 at 10:34:18 PM permalink
Result summary (after the Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/08/2021) :

Opening Bal: 23,948
Finishing Bal: 23,498
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,502)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 323
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,825)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : $450 / $458.24...

Chance jackpot will be hit (based on actual tickets sold) / Early Estimated Chance (Late Estimate): 24.705...% / 25.482...% (27.187...%)
Odds Taken: +360
Actual EV / Estimated EV (at the time I had the bet I used the "Early Estimated Chance" figure above): 13.645...% / 17.221...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 85,860,269 / 89,000,000


Other info:

. The odds for the "Jackpot winner" went: +360 to +310 and finished on +260.
. If you got odds of +360 and/or +310, then you would have had a +EV bet.
. No one reading this thread should have had a bet on the +260 , because the estimated EV at those odds was about -2.1266% at best, if you used my biggest estimated chance figure that I suggested for the "yes side".

Lastly, I still have one possible way to get this bet on (trusted people in accepted countries) so I may keep posting to this thread, if and when I have more lotto bets.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 12, 2021

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