Thread Rating:

ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
July 29th, 2020 at 5:46:14 AM permalink
To Romes (and anyone else who is interested)

Here is my first attempt to go back through my "results pages", and provide you with the figures I think you were interested in:

Bets (total): 18
"Actual EV's" (per bet average): ~5.6% (~101.4% / 18)
"chance of no jackpot winner" (per bet average): ~93.98% (~1,691.6%/18)
Turnover / "Amount Wagered" (per bet average): ~$3,447 ($62,047/18)
Profit / (Loss) for the bets above: $4,430

Notes:

1. I excluded^^^ the bets on the first page of this thread (as they were "rare occurrences", and had extremely high estimated/actual EV's, when compared to most of my other "lotto bets")

^^^: if you Include all the bets up to "the first post on page 17", then the actual Profit / (Loss) is : ($620)

2. The figures above are based on the posts between >>>https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/2/#post721852 <<< and >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/17/#post750733

3. I didn't double check the above figures, so there could be "calc errors" (eg "pressing the same number twice on the calculator")

4. At the moment, I plan to go from page 2 of this thread, until i reach "my last bet" that was "still using the 1/3 Kelly strategy".

---
I was going to go to sleep just before I wrote this, so I hope it makes sense...

---
Update:

According to http://www.beatingbonuses.com/, the standard deviation would be ~0.27 (at least if my real EV and bet size, was always the same amount as my average EV and bet size)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jul 29, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
July 30th, 2020 at 6:34:43 PM permalink
Update:

To Romes (and other interested parties)

Here are the details you wanted for my "no jackpot winner" bets (I have only done it for the bets between link and link )

Bets (total): 85
"Actual EV's - per bet average": ~3.27% (~278.3% / 85)
"chance of no jackpot winner - per bet average": ~95.06% (~8,080.8%/85)
'Turnover / Amount Wagered - per bet average": ~$2,909.20 (~$247,282/85)
Profit / (Loss) for the bets above: $4,931
Ev in $: ~ 8,096 (update about 740 pm)


Note: These figures are just for the "no jackpot winner lotto bets" for the period between the links above [my profit/ (loss) figure is currently around ($2000) for all my bets in this thread]

Note 2: I will plug in this data using http://www.beatingbonuses.com/ to work out the SD and other related info soon (but if anyone wants to do it the " more correct way", feel free to work it out and post a reply)

Note 3: I didn't double check the addition, so there could be some errors in these figures

Note 4 (update about 7pm Pac time): I didn't keep track of my largest EV for a single bet, but I think my smallest EV was ~ 0.5% ( i don't know if this helps, as working out the SD and other related things is above my current "skill level")

---
Update (about 7pm, Pac time):

After using the website from note 2 above", I get these details:

Using the websites' simulator, it returned this info below:

"No of Simulations": 1000000
Average return: 8090.60
Minimum Return: -35541...
Maximum Return: +21344...
Chance of gain: 87.384%
Standard Deviation (Per bet): 0.24

Using the websites' calculator, it returned this info below:

Expected Return: 8096.30
Chance of gain: 89.6%
1 Standard Deviation: 1659.14 to 14533.46
2 Standard Deviations: -4778.02 to 20970.62

Important: the calculator and simulator worked out these details using an "unlimited bankroll".


Edit (1010 pm ): I put a strike-through the info above, because I don't think it is correct after going through the figures at the start of this post, as my "max win" if all of my bets had won during that period was, ~$21,400.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jul 30, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
August 2nd, 2020 at 2:44:46 PM permalink
Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 07/29/20) :

Opening Bal: 23,928
Finishing Bal: 24,017
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (1,983)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 364
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,347)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): yes
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : 1,691 / 1,680.59
Won ($): 89
Chance of no jackpot winner (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 95.6054...% / 95.8779...%
Odds Taken: -1900
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 0.637...% / 0.924...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 13,131,869 / 12,300,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Reminder:

You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< if you want a copy of my "lotto spreadsheets" (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note 1: Only use the spreadsheets for the "no jackpot winner" markets
Note 2: They are the spreadsheets with "...lotto..." in the name
Note 3: I will probably post a "spreadsheet reminder" once per page.

----
Other:

Sorry for the late results summary post (see reasons below)

1. The lotto report website usually put up the "# of Tickets Sold" within 6 hours of the draw, but they took at least 24 hours this time

2. Once I had all the details, I couldn't get to WoV until now, because my pc was being redirected to a "shady site" ( I re-installed chrome and firefox, and I used all my anti-virus and anti-malware scanners and they found nothing)

Note: This happened to me about 2.5 weeks ago (see >> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/help/34888-i-couldnt-login-to-wizard-of-vegas-7-14/#post774656)

----
Update (~250 pm) :

I may be off-line for a while, because as I am typing this, I tried to get to WoV through firefox, and it is being redirected again to a "shady site".

----
spelling etc not checked
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Aug 2, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
August 20th, 2020 at 2:43:24 PM permalink
Betting Summary - Other Bet(s) (Powerball Jackpot Propositions - 8/22/2020)

Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "67 Powerball number last digit is 6"
Odds: +790
Chance: 3/26 (11.53...%)
EV: 2.69...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 0.17% ( "1/2 Kelly")
Actual Bet Amount: $41
When will I have a bet: now
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
August 23rd, 2020 at 1:47:36 PM permalink
Result summary (after the Powerball draw on the 8/22/20) :

Opening Bal: 24,017
Finishing Bal: 23,976
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,024)

Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,347)

Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 323

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Bet ($): 41
Chance that the "Powerball number last digit is 6": 3/26 (11.538...%)
Odds Taken:+790
Actual EV: 2.69...%
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
January 7th, 2021 at 3:56:31 AM permalink
Happy (belated) New Year and I hope everyone is well.

Just a bit of "FYI":

1. I haven't been posting on this thread or betting with 5dimes since around the end of August because:
i. Every time I looked at their website, I couldn't find any lotto bets on offer.
ii. About a month or so ago, I noticed that they were offering odds on the lottery again but the estimated EV was lower than what I was prepared to accept to make a wager.
and most importantly (IMO)
iii. 5dimes was being being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice around that time, so I wanted to use a "wait and see" approach with my betting (at least until after the "...settlement with Feds" ), see link here >>> link

2. After looking at the odds on offer for the last draw for both the MM and PB, there is a chance that the "yes, there will be a jackpot winner" is the side that will have +EV from now on in their current jackpot rolls (but the last two draws could have just been an aberration***).

***: In the last 6+ years I have been looking at these markets I have never seen the "yes side" have an estimated or real +EV (until these two draws) .

----
Spelling not checked
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
January 8th, 2021 at 5:05:48 PM permalink
Betting summary:

Game: Mega Millions (MM)
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/08/2021"
Odds: +475
Estimated Chance ***: 17.637...%
Estimated EV: 1.412...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for": 0.118...% / $28.52... (about 2/5 Kelly)
Actual Bet Amount: $28
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate ~ 58.7 million tickets will be sold.

Note: One of the ways I used to get the above estimate was >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<< and I used 490^^^ million as the jackpot amount.
^^^: The current advertised jackpot is $520 million, but I wanted to be "cautious with my estimate" so I used the earlier advertised jackpot of $490 million (FYI: I would have used the $520 million jackpot in the above link, if I was betting on the "no jackpot winner" side).

Note 2: I wouldn't recommend betting in this draw (even though I did) because the estimated EV is so small that the actual tickets sold just have to be about 1.1 million (~1.9%) less than my estimate to turn this bet into a - EV one.

Note 3: These are the 1st jackpot rolls I have seen for the MM and Powerball that have the potential for a +EV on the "yes there will be a Jackpot winner" side of the betting market.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
January 12th, 2021 at 3:35:17 AM permalink
Result summary (after the Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/08/2021) :

Opening Bal: 23,976
Finishing Bal: 23,948
Combined profit/ (loss) to date: (2,052)
Other Bets profit/ (loss) to date: 323
Main Bets profit/ (loss) to date: (2,375)

Did my bet win (yes or no?): no
Actual Bet Amount ($) / "Bet I was aiming for (2/5 Kelly)" : $28 / $28.52

Chance of YES the jackpot will hit (based on actual tickets sold) / Estimated Chance: 17.562...% / 17.634...%
Odds Taken: +475
Actual EV / Estimated EV: 0.985...% / 1.412...%
Actual Tickets Sold*** / Estimated Tickets Sold: 58,436,919 / 58,700,000

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
January 12th, 2021 at 3:50:43 AM permalink
Betting summary:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 01/12/2021"
Odds: +360
Estimated Chance ***: 25.482...%
Estimated EV: 17.221...%
"Bet Amount that I am aiming for" (about 2/5 Kelly): 1.913...% / $458.24...
Actual Bet Amount: $450
When did/will I have a bet: now

***: I estimate ~ 89 million tickets will be sold.

Note: I probably would have used an estimate closer to 119 million tickets, if I was betting on the "no jackpot winner" side of the market.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 12, 2021
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
January 12th, 2021 at 4:43:13 AM permalink
I have just posted a new file, as part of my "lotto spreadsheets" (see link below)

You can go to this link here >>> https://onedrive.live.com/?id=913E9944ACDF5E46%21116&cid=913E9944ACDF5E46 <<< (Files were uploaded "free from viruses", but I recommend you always do a virus scan, after you download any files from the internet).

Note: "American_ver4_lotto_bet_calc.xls" is the latest spreadsheet that I have posted

Note 2: You can now use it to help work out your "no jackpot winner" and "jackpot winner" estimates and bets (with previous versions, you could only use it to work out your "no jackpot winner" estimates and bets).

  • Jump to: