General Sports Talk

I see it as a vote of confidence in his defense. He believed his defense could stop them from marching 75 yards or 50 yards. That being the case, run, pass, or punt all produce the same results.

Quote: billryan

I see it as a vote of confidence in his defense. He believed his defense could stop them from marching 75 yards or 50 yards. That being the case, run, pass, or punt all produce the same results.

not if there's a pick or a sack or a fumble
but, I'll grant you - he probably did think about it that way


the bottom line to me is this - it is important just as probabilities are important


he had a pretty easy win - it wouldn't have been very hard for his defense to prevent a TD - the vast majority of the time

instead of taking an easy win, he asked his team to do something hard - something that's not so easy



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Quote: lilredrooster

he had a pretty easy win - it wouldn't have been very hard for his defense to prevent a TD - the vast majority of the time

instead of taking an easy win, he asked his team to do something hard - something that's not so easy



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I guess but when you call it “easy win”, odds are they still stop them from scoring a touchdown even if they fail to convert by far the majority of the time and by converting they eliminated the possibility so it’s “easy” either way just higher variance. Higher variance decision for sure, a decision most coaches probably wouldn’t be willing to make for no other reason than their job security isn’t cemented to the degree Reid’s is .

Quote: lilredrooster

there probably is some data on a QB throwing a pass on 4th and inches
but I doubt it includes a power ranking of the particular QB
and again, this was a weak backup QB - so, without that power ranking I doubt the data would be meaningful

We need to first ask "go for it or punt"? Which is just straight probability. Then we can ask "run or pass"? Which is not as straightforward, because even if data shows that run is better, teams should not always run, because then defense would only try to stop the run, and then pass would become better. It becomes game-theory and not algebra. Ideally, the play call would be completely random, with about 80-90% run and 10-20% pass. Here is a good article on it: http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/08/play-calling-on-3rd-and-short-part-1.html

duplicate post deleted.

My take on it was they went into the play hoping to draw them off-sides. Second option was the pass, but only if the guy was uncovered. If he was covered, take a delay of game and then punt.
Fortune favors the bold

Ugh! I lost an hour!

I was trying to figure out a way to use the BetRivers bonus on Super Bowl futures combined with their deposit bonus for an article. Ultimately, I was able to determine a way to make a futures bet on Tampa Bay by which you literally COULD NOT lose money, but it's not as good as the most, "Standard," way to play the bonus in terms of Expected Value (though the upside is a little better compared to the, 'Safest,' way).

Anyway, here is the combination of bets:

The first thing that you're doing is taking the $250 Deposit Match bonus to make the +450 Super Bowl Futures bet (BetRivers) on Tampa Bay:

Bet: $500 ($250 Actual)

Return: 500 + (500 * 4.5) = $2750

Profit: $2500 (Remember, the $250 match bonus represents profit if Tampa Bay wins)

Okay, so now what we have to do is make as little in bets as possible to cover our total action.

The way we are going to do this is by making a futures bet on all three other teams. As of the time this was written, it appears that we can get +220 on both Green Bay and Kansas City.

Kansas City + 220:

Bet: $700

To Win: $2240

Profit: $1540

Green Bay +220:

Bet: $700

To Win: $2240

Profit: $1540

Buffalo

Bet: $520

To Win: $2210

Profit: $1690

And, here's what we end up with:

Winner---Profit Less Losses---Result

Tampa Bay: $2500 - $700 - $700 - $520 = $580

Kansas City: $1540 - $700 - $520 - $250 = $70

Green Bay: $1540 - $700 - $520 - $250 = $70

Buffalo: $1690 - $700 - $700 - $250 = $40

As you can see, because of the deposit match, we can do this in a way that is guaranteed to make money. The next thing that we are going to do is to try to balance out our possible results by betting $125 more on Kansas City and Green Bay as well as $100 more on Buffalo.


Kansas City + 220:

Bet: $825

To Win: $2640

Profit: $1815

Green Bay +220:

Bet: $825

To Win: $2640

Profit: $1815

Buffalo

Bet: $620

To Win: $2635

Profit: $2015

And, here's what we end up with:

Winner---Profit Less Losses---Result

Tampa Bay: $2500 - $825 - $825 - $620 = $230

Kansas City: $1815 - $825 - $620 - $250 = $120

Green Bay: $1815 - $825 - $620 - $250 = $120

Buffalo: $2015 - $825- $825 - $250 = $115

You can continue to normalize the results from there, if you want to, but the ultimate result will be a guaranteed profit. Unfortunately, the standard way of playing this particular deposit results in a better expected return that, while technically not guaranteed, is basically guaranteed as long as you play it very conservatively.

Another Option

Another option would be if yourself and three confederates all did the deposit bonus at BetRivers and you all picked a different team for a $500 bet. This is really easy because you just win what you win and $750 in actual cash is essentially sacrificed every time. You keep the funds from the deposit match itself, so those count as profits.

(500 * 2.0) + 250 - 750 = +$500 (Kansas City)

(500 * 2.2) + 250 - 750 = +$600 (Green Bay)

(500 * 3.25) + 250 - 750 = +$1125 (Buffalo)

(500 * 4.5) + 250 - 750 = +$1750 (Tampa Bay)

Okay, so let's look at the implied probability of each result and add the values together:

(500 *.3333) + (600 * .3125) + (1125 * .2353) + (1750 * .1818)---

Okay, obviously this adds up to more than 100%, so I'm just going to round off in an arbitrary way because who the hell can put an exact probability on these?

(500 *.315) + (600 * .3) + (1125 * .21) + (1750 * .175) = $880

Ultimately, the expected final profit of $1,000 in total CASH bets and $2,000 in total bets counting the bonus is a profit of $880. The two pieces of good news are this:

1.) You can't possibly lose.

2.) It's a pretty healthy edge.

The downside is that the, "Standard," way of playing this bonus would actually have an expected profit of $980+ assuming $1,000 in bonus funds (four players) to use. Not only that, but with the Standard way of playing the bonus (combined with patience) it's virtually impossible that you would only end up with $880 in total profits. You'd have to run terribly for that to occur. Much less would you only end up with $500 in profits (like if Kansas City won) that's just not possible.

So, if you know what I mean when I keep saying, "Standard way," just do that.

One other thing:

Another option that you can do is just two way a MoneyLine with a confederate. In this case, you want your Bonus Funds to be getting the +ODDS.

Tampa Bay +150 @ Green Bay -170

Tampa Bay: $500 ($250 actual cash) to win $1250 and profit $1000 (The deposit match becomes cash profits)

Green Bay: $780 to win $1238.82 and profit $458.82

If Tampa Bay wins, then you finish ahead $220.

If Green Bay wins, then you finish ahead $208.82.

You can normalize your results even more than that if you want to. You could also do this with a confederate who also takes the bonus, but then you would just want a -110 spread bet on a decimal or -110 Over/Under on any decimal.

The winning bet would see a win of $954.54 which came about with $250 actual cash. Therefore, the profits are $704.54.

The other side would lose the $250 that was actual cash, the other $250 of the $500 bet was bonus funds.

The combined two people would have guaranteed TOTAL profits of $454.54.

Functionally, this is literally making a $500 bet at -110 knowing that you can only win.

And, it's a guaranteed sum, but still not the best way to play $500 of the bonus money which would have an expected return of $490+. I guess playing it the most standard way as conservatively as possible there's a chance you would finish worse than $454.54, but I'd be surprised.

What I will say is that, if you start looking at hourly earn, the offsetting bets is probably the best way to play it if you want zero variance as well.

Quote: billryan

Fortune favors the bold

I totally get it
kind of like Custer at Little Big Horn and Napoleon at Waterloo.........................................................................(-:\




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More like Chamberlain at Gettysburg or even Jackson at Chancellorsville.

Quote: billryan

More like Chamberlain at Gettysburg

Wilt Chamberlain was at Gettysburg?
I didn't know Kansas played against Gettysburg College back then


it wasn't 4th down - it was 2nd down - but Pete Carroll was torched by just about everybody, including some on his own team for this call - a pass instead of a run - fortune didn't favor him despite his boldness

and this was a QB way, way, way better then Chad Henne




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7rPIg7ZNQ8&feature=emb_err_woyt



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I loved watching Gary Payton growing up
One of the few that played hard defense
Loved the nickname
The Glove

Just picked up Gary Payton Cookies marijuana strain.
Very nice
I highly recommend

................

I hadn't followed the Bills very closely
I always had the sneaking suspicion they weren't for real
but I just looked at their scores
they beat 10 teams by 7 or more points
in the regular season they won their last 3 games by 30, 29 and 29 and they beat the Steelers by 11 right before that
in the Divisional they beat the Ravens by 14 although the Ravens lost their QB
they must be for real



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Quote: lilredrooster

................

I hadn't followed the Bills very closely
I always had the sneaking suspicion they weren't for real
but I just looked at their scores
they beat 10 teams by 7 or more points
in the regular season they won their last 3 games by 30, 29 and 29 and they beat the Steelers by 11 right before that
in the Divisional they beat the Ravens by 14 although the Ravens lost their QB
they must be for real



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They are for real. They are by all metrics the second best team in the AFC. And only slightly worse than the Chiefs. If they play this game 100 times the Bills likely win between 30 and 40 times. KC beat the Bills what appears to be handily... they rushed for a few million yards.... but the game was not 'over' until late.....

My 'prop bet' of the year.... OVER on rushing yards by Josh Allen.... I think during regular season games he was throttled somewhat by the coaching staff to avoid injury, but I don't think they will keep the brakes on him in this 'win and get into the Super Bowl' game.

If I had to bet on the game, I'd take the Chiefs -3.

Quote: SOOPOO

They are for real. They are by all metrics the second best team in the AFC. And only slightly worse than the Chiefs. If they play this game 100 times the Bills likely win between 30 and 40 times. KC beat the Bills what appears to be handily... they rushed for a few million yards.... but the game was not 'over' until late.....

My 'prop bet' of the year.... OVER on rushing yards by Josh Allen.... I think during regular season games he was throttled somewhat by the coaching staff to avoid injury, but I don't think they will keep the brakes on him in this 'win and get into the Super Bowl' game.

If I had to bet on the game, I'd take the Chiefs -3.

I got the Bills at about +2300. GO BILLS!

Quote: AZDuffman

I got the Bills at about +2300. GO BILLS!

I think most of us are rooting for you on this onne.

I'm rooting for the Chiefs, and hoping that in about six years we can put this Brady is the Best of All-time nonsense to sleep. I figure Patrick needs to win four more in a row, or maybe five out of the next six.

Quote: DRich

I think most of us are rooting for you on this onne.

Maybe for first time since craps class.

Quote: billryan

I'm rooting for the Chiefs, and hoping that in about six years we can put this Brady is the Best of All-time nonsense to sleep. I figure Patrick needs to win four more in a row, or maybe five out of the next six.

I’ll agree with you when Mahomes gets to his FOURTEENTH Conference championship game.

But seriously.... over his short career so far Mahomes IS the best I’ve ever seen. But not even as good as Rodgers this year! Or Jackson the year before!

Quote: billryan

I'm rooting for the Chiefs, and hoping that in about six years we can put this Brady is the Best of All-time nonsense to sleep. I figure Patrick needs to win four more in a row, or maybe five out of the next six.

I'm pulling for the Buccaneers and hoping that, for the time being, we can put all of this, "Brady is not the best of all-time," nonsense to sleep.

Here's an interesting fact: If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this year, (or next year, actually) then Tom Brady will personally have more Super Bowl wins than any other NFL TEAM in history.

Quote: Mission146

I'm pulling for the Buccaneers and hoping that, for the time being, we can put all of this, "Brady is not the best of all-time," nonsense to sleep.

Here's an interesting fact: If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this year, (or next year, actually) then Tom Brady will personally have more Super Bowl wins than any other NFL TEAM in history.

Fun Fact: Yogi Berra has more World Series rings than anyone else, and more than every team except the Cardinals but no one talks about him as the GOAT

Quote: billryan

Fun Fact: Yogi Berra has more World Series rings than anyone else, and more than every team except the Cardinals but no one talks about him as the GOAT

I'm guessing because he's not simultaneously #1 or #2 in every major statistical category.

Quote: Mission146

I'm guessing because he's not simultaneously #1 or #2 in every major statistical category.

When Fran Tarkington broke the all-time passing record, he broke a record that had stood for years,and his record lasted for about 20years give or take a few. There were a bunch of QBs all around 200 career TDs and people thought we'd never see another group like that. Now you need to throw 500 to even make a name for oneself.
Todays statistics are almost meaningless as you have players setting records almost every week. Aaron Rogers was #1 in All-time QB rating one week, two weeks later he was third. Brees was number 1 in touchdown passes until he missed a game and Brady went in front.
It took fifty seasons before the NFL had a 2,000-yard rusher. Now there seems to be one almost every season.
Brady is a great player, just not the greatest, imo. You are entitled to your own opinion.

Quote: terapined

I loved watching Gary Payton growing up
One of the few that played hard defense
Loved the nickname
The Glove

Just picked up Gary Payton Cookies marijuana strain.
Very nice
I highly recommend

His son Gary Payton Jr “the mitten” is also an absolute terror on defense as well but doesn’t have the offensive skill, two time pac 12 defensive player of the year and was picking ball handlers pockets left and right at the the of last season. Has played nba games each of the last four seasons but never stuck for even half a season at most on a team, simply inadequate as a shooter or ball handler to stick full time and is approaching the portion of the aging curve where it’s likely soon or never for that.

A field goal down 8 inside the 10 with 2 minutes left??? Wtf was that, almost surprised Rodgers didn’t refuse to come off the field.

Quote: mcallister3200

A field goal down 8 inside the 10 with 2 minutes left??? Wtf was that, almost surprised Rodgers didn’t refuse to come off the field.

Was rooting for the Bucs
Huge relief when the field goal unit came out
Go Bills

Quote: mcallister3200

A field goal down 8 inside the 10 with 2 minutes left??? Wtf was that, almost surprised Rodgers didn’t refuse to come off the field.

. Their win % wen from 10 to 9. A bad call but not even the worst of the game. Arians not refusing the 2nd and 1 intentional offsides was stunning. Did he even stop for a second to think WHY GB went offside on purpose? It never ceases to amaze me how just not smart NFL head coaches are.

Inexplicable. I'm watching with a couple of Packer fans and they seem to think it was a very feline move.

Also if you’re going to kick the field goal, since a first down is game over anyway would an onside make more sense? I know field position but it’s one more chance to gain possession, might increase chance of getting possession enough to offset field position vs giving up a first down.

Quote: SOOPOO

. Their win % wen from 10 to 9. A bad call but not even the worst of the game. Arians not refusing the 2nd and 1 intentional offsides was stunning. Did he even stop for a second to think WHY GB went offside on purpose? It never ceases to amaze me how just not smart NFL head coaches are.

If he refuses it, they just do it again. The cycle would get old real fast.

Quote: billryan

If he refuses it, they just do it again. The cycle would get old real fast.

. Not true. It would eventually turn into an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Which is at least an extra 10 free yards. I’m not sure if there is another remedy, but you bring up an interesting point.

Quote: SOOPOO

. Their win % wen from 10 to 9. A bad call but not even the worst of the game. Arians not refusing the 2nd and 1 intentional offsides was stunning. Did he even stop for a second to think WHY GB went offside on purpose? It never ceases to amaze me how just not smart NFL head coaches are.

Can you refuse an offside penalty?

Worked out for me, I had TB moneyline and over 53. Tampa Bay over a good bet this season and last,

Now GO BILLS!

Quote: mcallister3200

A field goal down 8 inside the 10 with 2 minutes left??? Wtf was that, almost surprised Rodgers didn’t refuse to come off the field.

it's got to be in the running for the worst coaches call ever in a championship game
right - turn the ball over to Brady - he's really likely to not get a first down - sure - that's the ticket........NOT


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The game looked like it was going to turn into a blowout that didn’t last long.
Can’t believe GB went for 3 .
Happy to see Brady in another SuperBowl.
He might not have the skills of some of the other QBs out there but somehow he keeps on winning.

Kudos to Tom Brady and all the Bucs. I pray I never have to utter those words again.

Quote: SOOPOO

. Not true. It would eventually turn into an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Which is at least an extra 10 free yards. I’m not sure if there is another remedy, but you bring up an interesting point.

I'm spit balling here, but a declined penalty means it never happened so how could you get called for a repeat of something that didn't happen.

Quote: lilredrooster

it's got to be in the running for the worst coaches call ever in a championship game
right - turn the ball over to Brady - he's really likely to not get a first down - sure - that's the ticket........NOT


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The math is the math. He lessened his teams chances from 10% to 9%. Not a good call, obviously , but doesn’t even get honorable mention in the pantheon of bad calls.

Remember, even if successful, they still need 2 point conversion. And then they still need to stop Hrady from driving down field for a field goal. And even if that is successful they only get to OT with 50% chance of winning. The decision he made just required stopping Brady, then driving for winning TD. As stated., likelihood of your plan working was 10%, versus the plan GB chose being 9%.

Quote: SOOPOO

The math is the math. He lessened his teams chances from 10% to 9%.

no, the math is not the math
you can't possibly make a calculation such as that
because the calculation did not include a power ranking for all the various QBs in that situation
you're talking about Tom Brady - maybe or probably the greatest QB who ever played the game
it also did not include a power ranking that took into account Rodger's greatness and his far greater likelihood than average to convert
your 10% to 9% thing is meaningless


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Some of the tweets I have seen said the models take into account who the QBs were. But no model is perfect .

Quote: lilredrooster

no, the math is not the math
you can't possibly make a calculation such as that
because the calculation did not include a power ranking for all the various QBs in that situation
you're talking about Tom Brady - maybe or probably the greatest QB who ever played the game
it also did not include a power ranking that took into account Rodger's greatness and his far greater likelihood than average to convert
your 10% to 9% thing is meaningless


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. I wouldn’t say meaningless.... but of course it can’t factor in every variable. Weather. Defensive strengths of teams. Who is out because of game injury.

Remember, I agree with you! I wouldn’t have kicked that FG either! In general, if at all reasonable I don’t punt. And tend to go for it rather than kick FG.

We are just arguing extent of how bad a decision the FG was.

It was encroachment, not offsides, because an offensive player was touched.

I know TB could have declined the distance, (which would be decided by offensive captain, Tom Brady, not Bruce Arians) but I think they might have no choice but to take the down for that. Even if not, then Brady might have simply wanted it to be first down figuring that they at least get the first down and have the opportunity to burn all of Green Bay's time outs. If Green Bay had somehow managed to stop them on second and third down, then TB would be punting to them and they'd still have a time out in their pocket.

Green Bay kicking the field goal was baffling.

Quote: Hunterhill

He might not have the skills of some of the other QBs out there but somehow he keeps on winning.

(Quote clipped, relevance)

401/610 (65.7%) 4,633 YDS 40 TD 13 INT QB RATE: 102.2 YPA: 7.6 YPC: 11.6

Passing TD: T-2nd
QB RATE: 9th
Completions: 2nd
Passing Yards: 3rd

I don't know what else anybody could possibly want from him on a brand new team and with severely limited offseason prep.

Quote: Mission146

(Quote clipped, relevance)

401/610 (65.7%) 4,633 YDS 40 TD 13 INT QB RATE: 102.2 YPA: 7.6 YPC: 11.6

Passing TD: T-2nd
QB RATE: 9th
Completions: 2nd
Passing Yards: 3rd

I don't know what else anybody could possibly want from him on a brand new team and with severely limited offseason prep.

I guess I should say he can’t run and is slow, but don’t get me wrong imo he is the GOAT.
His book motivated me also,I lost 25 lbs and have kept it off for 3 years now. Stay hydrated.

I see KC is -3.5 over TB. Gotta think KC covers that.

Quote: SOOPOO

The math is the math. He lessened his teams chances from 10% to 9%. Not a good call, obviously , but doesn’t even get honorable mention in the pantheon of bad calls.

Remember, even if successful, they still need 2 point conversion. And then they still need to stop Hrady from driving down field for a field goal. And even if that is successful they only get to OT with 50% chance of winning. The decision he made just required stopping Brady, then driving for winning TD. As stated., likelihood of your plan working was 10%, versus the plan GB chose being 9%.

You are misrepresenting things here, by ignoring the two minutes left after the fourth down play. If the Packers stopped Brady and drove for a touchdown after kicking a field goal, that means we would expect them to have also stopped him and drove for a score after going for in on fourth down.

If they go for it on fourth down and miss the TD, the Bucs have the ball on the 8 up by 8, and the Packers are somewhat worse off compared to being down 5 and the Bucs have the ball of the 25. If they go for it on fourth and make the TD, worst case is they are down by two. So now they only have to stop Brady and drive for the game winning score. Which is what they had to do anyway, except they would only have to drive for a field goal instead of a TD. Or best case, it is tied, and likely heading into OT, but they still had the chance to stop Brady and score -- which is what they had to do anyway after kicking the field goal.

I'm curious where you are getting the 10% compared to 9%. The live betting markets I was watching had it around 10%, then took it off the board once it went to 31-26. If the Packers really had 1-in11 chance, down by 5 with two minutes left and the Bucs with the ball, I would think the sportsbooks would have kept taking bets at +700 / -1500.

Found this interesting video of Bills fan "culture." Apparently a large portion of them think they are soon to be professional wrestlers practicing their moves on folding tables. So Soopoo, have you ever jumped through a folding table?

Quote: mcallister3200

Found this interesting video of Bills fan "culture." Apparently a large portion of them think they are soon to be professional wrestlers practicing their moves on folding tables. So Soopoo, have you ever jumped through a folding table?

Not me! But there is one viral video of a what looks to be insane guy going through a table.... I know his wife from work.... and he is a dentist!

Answering where I got the 9 and 10% figures.... apparently ESPN has a ‘win % calculator’. It updates after every play I think.

Quote: Hunterhill

I guess I should say he can’t run and is slow, but don’t get me wrong imo he is the GOAT.
His book motivated me also,I lost 25 lbs and have kept it off for 3 years now. Stay hydrated.

Tom Brady, a true dual-threat quarterback, has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 25 TD in his young career.

I jest, but did you see the time he juked Urlacher?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAt6S1RHBYs

What do you do against that kind of blazing speed and dexterous footwork?

Quote: TomG

You are misrepresenting things here, by ignoring the two minutes left after the fourth down play. If the Packers stopped Brady and drove for a touchdown after kicking a field goal, that means we would expect them to have also stopped him and drove for a score after going for in on fourth down.

If they go for it on fourth down and miss the TD, the Bucs have the ball on the 8 up by 8, and the Packers are somewhat worse off compared to being down 5 and the Bucs have the ball of the 25. If they go for it on fourth and make the TD, worst case is they are down by two. So now they only have to stop Brady and drive for the game winning score. Which is what they had to do anyway, except they would only have to drive for a field goal instead of a TD. Or best case, it is tied, and likely heading into OT, but they still had the chance to stop Brady and score -- which is what they had to do anyway after kicking the field goal.

I'm curious where you are getting the 10% compared to 9%. The live betting markets I was watching had it around 10%, then took it off the board once it went to 31-26. If the Packers really had 1-in11 chance, down by 5 with two minutes left and the Bucs with the ball, I would think the sportsbooks would have kept taking bets at +700 / -1500.

A key element you are overlooking here is that the live odds are generated as a "generic algorithm" that lacks specificity not only to the teams involved, but the nature of the game (low versus high scoring) and any weather conditions. So the lines that are spit out are in reference to some all-encompassing broad data base, not a specific one. And that's where opinions come in. The games are still games of opinion.

Sometimes heuristics are much better than the algorithms. Depends on the game conditions; depends on the teams. The algorithms are general, not coach or quarterback-specific, for example. And even when the algorithms become team and quarterback specific, which I imagine will happen sometime soon, that isn't the end of the story. How hard somebody got thumped all game is a heuristic judgement that would certainly factor into what the odds should be as opposed to a crystalline algorithm.

Eventually, who knows, maybe 50 years from now, AI will "see" the games better than human heuristics. But not yet. Not now.

Quote: redietz

A key element you are overlooking here is that the live odds are generated as a "generic algorithm" that lacks specificity not only to the teams involved, but the nature of the game (low versus high scoring) and any weather conditions. So the lines that are spit out are in reference to some all-encompassing broad data base, not a specific one. And that's where opinions come in. The games are still games of opinion.

Sometimes heuristics are much better than the algorithms. Depends on the game conditions; depends on the teams. The algorithms are general, not coach or quarterback-specific, for example. And even when the algorithms become team and quarterback specific, which I imagine will happen sometime soon, that isn't the end of the story. How hard somebody got thumped all game is a heuristic judgement that would certainly factor into what the odds should be as opposed to a crystalline algorithm.

Eventually, who knows, maybe 50 years from now, AI will "see" the games better than human heuristics. But not yet. Not now.

Great post. The best example of this is 'week 17', when some teams don't even care if they win. A human can sometimes tell that by just seeing which QB a coach is starting. I text with my son about win % all the time. Yesterday, mid Bills game it was around 10%, but when I asked him, he just said ZERO!