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Wizard
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Wizard
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January 24th, 2018 at 8:44:34 PM permalink
Since there isn't a thread for it yet, I'll make this one to discuss the game. As of this posting on 1/24/18, the line is the Patriots by 5 and an over/under of 48.

I wrote about this before, but here is my basic strategy for handicapping. To start, some statistics over the 2017 regular season:

Pats points scored per game: 28.6
Pats points allowed per game: 18.5
Eagles points scored per game: 28.6
Eagles points allowed per game: 18.4

Amazingly, both teams are nearly the same on average points scored and allowed! What are the odds?

You can get expected points scored by either team by averaging average points scored per game and points allowed by the other team. That gives us:

Patriots: 23.5
Eagles: 23.55
Point spread on Patriots: +0.05 (let's just call it zero)
Over/under: 47.05 (let's just say 47)

However, the AFC is tougher division. I think it would be fair to shift the point spread by 3 the Pats way for that. Given the zero spread otherwise, that makes the Pats a 3-point favorite.

However, on simply an emotional basis, I hate to bet against the Patriots. They seem to find a way to win in key games almost every time, although often my small margins. Unless I get some trusted advice, which I may get, I'll not bet the game straight up either way. On the over/under, with 47 expected points scored, I would easily take the under if you put a gun to my head, but I don't think it is worth laying the juice over.

What do you think?

The question for the poll is what combination of winner against the spread and the over/under do you like?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
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January 24th, 2018 at 8:55:22 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



However, the AFC is tougher division. I think it would be fair to shift the point spread by 3 the Pats way for that. Given the zero spread otherwise, that makes the Pats a 3-point favorite.



Respectfully disagree. Perhaps specific matchups were a factor, but the AFC went 23-41 against the NFC this year.

Either way, I like the Pats straight up, but that could be the homer in me.

I have no opinion on the total.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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January 24th, 2018 at 8:56:58 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Respectfully disagree. Perhaps specific matchups were a factor, but the AFC went 23-41 against the NFC this year.



That's a good point. However, every year in the off-season the books post a line on the conference to win the Super Bowl. The AFC lately has been a 2.5 to 3 point favorite.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
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January 24th, 2018 at 9:12:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That's a good point. However, every year in the off-season the books post a line on the conference to win the Super Bowl. The AFC lately has been a 2.5 to 3 point favorite.



I believe that has to do with two things:

1.) The AFC went 33-30-1 against the NFC during the 2016 Regular Season.

2.) The Patriots won the Super Bowl and were the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl this year.

Additionally, from:

https://www.betfirm.com/super-bowl-odds/

Here were the odds as of 8/29:

TEAM BOVADA BMAKER BETONLINE
Patriots +325 +315 +350
Packers +800 +965 +1000
Raiders +1000 +1624 +1400
Seahawks +1200 +942 +1000
Steelers +1200 +827 +1200
Falcons +1200 +1061 +1200
Cowboys +1400 +1470 +1200
Giants +1800 +2088 +1400
Texans +2500 +2459 +2000
Panthers +2500 +2875 +2800
Broncos +2800 +2462 +2500
Chiefs +2800 +2608 +2200
Cardinals +3300 +3290 +3300
Bucs +3300 +3951 +3300
Titans +3300 +3671 +3300
Vikings +4000 +3818 +2800
Eagles +4000 +3671 +4000
Colts +5000 +5700 +5000
Saints +5000 +5700 +4000
Ravens +5000 +6300 +5000
Chargers +5000 +4800 +6600
Redskins +5000 +7500 +6600
Bengals +5000 +7500 +5000
Lions +6600 +6700 +6600
Dolphins +7500 +6000 +6600
Jaguars +10000 +10000 +6600
Bills +15000 +18000 +10000
Bears +15000 +18000 +20000
Rams +15000 +19000 +15000
Jets +30000 +40000 +25000
49ers +30000 +26500 +25000
Browns +30000 +23000 +25000
Last Updated 08/29 08/29 08/29

So your more, "Likely," teams, which I would say would be the Top Six, were half AFC and half NFC, but the Patriots were obviously considered far more likely than the Packers, and the Raiders were considered considerably more likely than the second NFC team to appear.

In other words, I don't know that the AFC is the better conference, I would say the NFC is the better overall conference...but that probably wasn't the perception after the 2016 season. I think that the AFC's top two or three teams are generally considered better than those of the NFC, but overall, well, the AFC has the Browns.
Vultures can't be choosers.
RS
RS
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January 25th, 2018 at 1:42:42 AM permalink
I was considering taking the pats ML for a small amount. But then again, I'd hate to see the patriots win.


Wizard, if you'd like to book bets on the different props, I'll blindly bet all the underdogs, IF we set the line to the mid-point between both odds. IE: +200 and -300 goes to +/-250 and +600 and -750 goes to +/-675. Like what happened last year, with DJTeddyBear (IIRC).

To put some skin in the game and to make it more fun. But mostly because I want some EV :)
FinsRule
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January 25th, 2018 at 4:49:44 AM permalink
I'm going to bet Pats win but don't cover. I'm not going to worry about the total.
DJTeddyBear
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January 25th, 2018 at 6:54:15 AM permalink
I didn稚 vote. I知 not concerned with the winner or total points. Hell, I don稚 even care who痴 playing.

I prefer to bet on some of the high paying props. I did well last year. Among my big scores was Yes Overtime.

Hey Wiz! I知 ready to let you get some back. Are you taking action this year?



Quote: RS

... mid-point between both odds. IE: +200 and -300 goes to +/-250 and +600 and -750 goes to +/-675. Like what happened last year, with DJTeddyBear (IIRC).

You recall correctly. We did the easy midpoint rather than calculate the fair middle. People told me I was giving up a couple bucks but what痴 a couple bucks between friends?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
boymimbo
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BobDancer
January 25th, 2018 at 7:10:44 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I didn稚 vote. I知 not concerned with the winner or total points. Hell, I don稚 even care who痴 playing.

I prefer to bet on some of the high paying props. I did well last year. Among my big scores was Yes Overtime.

Hey Wiz! I知 ready to let you get some back. Are you taking action this year?



You recall correctly. We did the easy midpoint rather than calculate the fair middle. People told me I was giving up a couple bucks but what痴 a couple bucks between friends?



Patriots will win the game, but not against the spread. They are too good at figuring out what the other side is doing and adjusting. No team can beat that. I'm going for the over due to excellent field conditions and less than stellar defenses, but that's just a feeling.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
michael99000
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January 25th, 2018 at 8:08:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That's a good point. However, every year in the off-season the books post a line on the conference to win the Super Bowl. The AFC lately has been a 2.5 to 3 point favorite.



That line is not based on the conference strength vs one another as a whole.
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January 25th, 2018 at 8:28:49 AM permalink
I've pin pointed what's killed foosball for me.

First is the WWE of it all. Back in my day (late 80's / early 90's), these guys seemed larger than life. It wasn't so much they were peak athletes, but there was a superhero-ness to it all. Pomp and circumstance. It wasn't just a "meaningful NFC game" with "playoff implications", it was an epic battle of Rice vs Sanders, almost a game within a game. Teams had meaning, they had "crews". Teams had a certain look and vibe you could expect to see and be familiar with, while today it seems to be but a bunch of guys that happen to play for Team X this week. There's no more Montanya and Rice, Kelly and Reed/Lofton, Marino and Clayton/Duper. No more hard nose, old school tough guys like Atwater and Lott that helped define a team's vibe. It's all just gone, with few exceptions like your Rogers and Brady. Put all 30 teams in practice jerseys and the only person you'll be able to pick out is Danny Amendola.

But by far what's killed it is the simple loss of respect. I was engaged in worship of one of my heroes recently and the contrast is stark indeed. When you watch Barry Sanders run, it's not his skills and talents which shine the most for me. When I watch that man go, what I see is heart. A man that no matter how "meaningless" the game or how impotent his team, is gonna give 100% every time he's asked to do a job. And to top it off, how selflessly it's done. THAT'S the clincher for me. How many bad shots he'd take in those days, and never getting in someone's face. When he runs 40-60-80 yards for a TD, there's no waving goodbye to opponents, no pointing to the camera, no idiotic, self serving dance number in the endzone, no slow up and skip into the paint. He ran hard as balls until he crossed the line, dropped the ball, returned to the sideline.

That man is everything I aspired and still aspire to be as an athlete, and while admittedly out of the loop for a long time, this last year of getting back into football has been pretty much devoid of anything that I grew to love all those years ago. Now it's pampered princesses doing choreograph for an 8yrd catch. It's personalized taunting for converting a second and short. It's "please notice me and only me for every single thing I do, even though the majority of this is completely ordinary". Who gets turned on by this trash?

Oh yeah, Super Bowl. Refs over Eagles, 31 - 27.

Miss you, Mr Sanders.

The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.

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