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25 members have voted

RogerKint
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RS
January 31st, 2018 at 8:04:40 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Im good for it..

https://imgur.com/rIhyVog



Posting pics of cash = you always pay your gambling debts? The history of these forums and it's members would suggest the opposite ;)
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WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2018 at 8:39:41 AM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Posting pics of cash = you always pay your gambling debts? The history of these forums and it's members would suggest the opposite ;)



That makes no sense. Reasonable and sensible people would construe that photo as an indication that I am putting up my money where my mouth is based upon the request to send it to third parties for hold. If you are implying that I would take a photo of my money and then renege if we made the BET and I lost, then that is not what I believed people in this forum were about.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Ibeatyouraces
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RogerKint
January 31st, 2018 at 8:44:42 AM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Posting pics of cash = you always pay your gambling debts? The history of these forums and it's members would suggest the opposite ;)


Here's my stash. I'm trustworthy!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Romes
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January 31st, 2018 at 8:52:50 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Here's my stash. I'm trustworthy!

Hey! Your stash is on the left. Mine is on the right... You're always getting my money mixed up with yours! I'm also good for a few million bet too guys =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
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January 31st, 2018 at 8:54:30 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Here's my stash. I'm trustworthy!

Hey! Your stash is on the left. Mine is on the right... You're always getting my money mixed up with yours! I'm also good for a few million bet too guys =).


Yeah, but yours is all $5's and $20's. Mine is all $50's and $100's! 😉
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
speedycrap
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RogerKint
January 31st, 2018 at 9:00:44 AM permalink
A friendly wager of less than $100 is quite acceptable. Any large amount might be better to be in escrow.
DJTeddyBear
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January 31st, 2018 at 9:24:44 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

...Yeah, but yours is all $5's and $20's. Mine is all $50's and $100's! 😉

Don稚 you know fifty dolllar bills are unlucky?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2018 at 10:39:41 AM permalink
Just take a photo of your huge bankroll with todays paper in it.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
RogerKint
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djatcRSMaxPen
January 31st, 2018 at 10:45:33 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Just take a photo of your huge bankroll with todays paper in it.



Escrow the cheese or STFU
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WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2018 at 11:04:31 AM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Escrow the cheese or STFU



Are you wagering anyting big mouth?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
RogerKint
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January 31st, 2018 at 11:22:03 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Are you wagering anyting big mouth?



No I'm too pu$$y to bet sports. I don't think I've ever made a sports bet. Who's Floyd Mary weather?
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WatchMeWin
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RogerKintDJTeddyBear
January 31st, 2018 at 11:47:47 AM permalink
Man.... there are some weird people in the forum.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
RS
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January 31st, 2018 at 1:34:36 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Man.... there are some weird people in the forum.


#CashMeOutside
#HowbowDah
AxelWolf
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January 31st, 2018 at 1:46:34 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I would risk up to 1000.. so 990 to win 900 . Im good for it. I put trust that you are too.

I have a saying(actually I have a few) one of my sayings is, TRUST, BUT CONFIRM.

I'm glad you trust I will pay. I think from reading the forum someone can reasonably conclude I not only have the money, but I'm also good for it. There's at least a dozen people here who I have done something with involving at least that much money.
Since I have a history with some people, I would have no problem extending them credit.

Unfortunately, I don't know anyone that's ever done any business or betting money exchange with you(perhaps you have made some small bets and exchanged with money Tom and Soopoo?)

Pictures are meaningless, for all I know your grandmother just cashed her SSI check and let you use the cash for 30 seconds just to pose with. (-;

I think we have had a conversation before. I told you, if you wanted to make bets with me, it wouldn't be on credit. I asked you to set up a BC, PP account or put up some money with a moderator or whatever, and I would do the same.

It seems to me that you have resisted thus far, for whatever reason.

It seems to me that you like to make lots of spots and prop bets and are willing to let members book it.

So why not escrow 1k or whatever and show some good faith? At least until you get some money exchange history under your belt.

p.s. I don't care either way about this particular bet. Im.not frothing at the mouth trying to get or give action. I'm good with it or not.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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January 31st, 2018 at 1:57:05 PM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

No I'm too pu$$y to bet sports. I don't think I've ever made a sports bet. Who's Floyd Mary weather?

when I was younger I loved playing sports
and playing sports video games. I hated watching sports (other than boxing). The only reason I ever started watching sports was because I could bet on it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2018 at 2:14:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I have a saying(actually I have a few) one of my sayings is, TRUST, BUT CONFIRM.

I'm glad you trust I will pay. I think from reading the forum someone can reasonably conclude I not only have the money, but I'm also good for it. There's at least a dozen people here who I have done something with involving at least that much money.
Since I have a history with some people, I would have no problem extending them credit.

Unfortunately, I don't know anyone that's ever done any business or betting money exchange with you(perhaps you have made some small bets and exchanged with money Tom and Soopoo?)

Pictures are meaningless, for all I know your grandmother just cashed her SSI check and let you use the cash for 30 seconds just to pose with. (-;

I think we have had a conversation before. I told you, if you wanted to make bets with me, it wouldn't be on credit. I asked you to set up a BC, PP account or put up some money with a moderator or whatever, and I would do the same.

It seems to me that you have resisted thus far, for whatever reason.

It seems to me that you like to make lots of spots and prop bets and are willing to let members book it.

So why not escrow 1k or whatever and show some good faith? At least until you get some money exchange history under your belt.

p.s. I don't care either way about this particular bet. Im.not frothing at the mouth trying to get or give action. I'm good with it or not.



I really don't care about it either. I just made a proposition wager with you because you had a funny comment about not liking your bet anymore because I liked it. Plus it would be very gratifying to win money from you. I already have close to 7K riding on my teaser with eagles and over with various sources.. so this is no big deal. Good luck

Do yourself a favor and take the Eagles and the over on a two team teaser.. #winner!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
speedycrap
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January 31st, 2018 at 2:29:22 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I really don't care about it either. I just made a proposition wager with you because you had a funny comment about not liking your bet anymore because I liked it. Plus it would be very gratifying to win money from you. I already have close to 7K riding on my teaser with eagles and over with various sources.. so this is no big deal. Good luck

Do yourself a favor and take the Eagles and the over on a two team teaser.. #winner!

Eagles and over? What is the odds? I will take say $50. ok??
FinsRule
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January 31st, 2018 at 2:31:18 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I believe if Wentz didnt get injured and played at the same level he did for his first 13 games the Pats would be less than a FG favorite. We will never know. Lets make a one beer bet. You win if Foles is a starter on any NFL team week one next year, I win if he is not?



If he was a FA after this year I'd make that bet in a second. But it makes the most sense for the Eagles to keep Foles until they are sure Wentz is recovered.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/look-nick-foles-and-carson-wentz-career-stats-side-by-side-will-melt-your-brain/
AxelWolf
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January 31st, 2018 at 2:33:15 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I really don't care about it either. I just made a proposition wager with you because you had a funny comment about not liking your bet anymore because I liked it. Plus it would be very gratifying to win money from you. I already have close to 7K riding on my teaser with eagles and over with various sources.. so this is no big deal. Good luck

Do yourself a favor and take the Eagles and the over on a two team teaser.. #winner!

how about this. We don't even have to make a bet. Let's just both put up a few K in escrow until after the game. That way we can get things rolling for the future.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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January 31st, 2018 at 2:35:40 PM permalink
The dog and the over eh?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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onenickelmiracle
January 31st, 2018 at 4:33:14 PM permalink
The money continues to come in the Eagles side. About half the sports book in Vegas now have Eagles +4. Getting the extra half point off of four is pretty valuable, by the way. The money line in the Patriots is slipping to -175 at Stations and William Hill.

If this trend continues, I would recommend betting ASAP if you favor the Eagles and bide your time if you like the Patriots.

BTW, I use Vegas Insider to check lines.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ahiromu
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RSRomestringlomane
January 31st, 2018 at 5:21:53 PM permalink
I was originally hoping to scoop up the Pats for -180. Maybe I can find -160 if this trend continues.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
djatc
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January 31st, 2018 at 6:00:20 PM permalink
-175 now at some books
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2018 at 6:17:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

The dog and the over eh?



Thats my play.... my big play is teasing eagles n over. As far as straight up, I still like the eagles and over.

It is the year of the dog!

No one is giving the birds credit and they have been dominant all year long.
They lost their top running back, Sproles, and continue to win.
They lost their top offensive lineman, Peters, and continue to win.
They lost one of their top defensive players, Hicks, and continued to win.
They lost their league MVP candidate quarterback, Wentz, and still continued to win and dominate in NFC championship game.
This is truly a team. No I in team. Pederson has the team prepared every week. They have swag, they have moxie, they have ENERGY!! This is their year.

They will definitely keep it within 11 points and they will put up at least 21...as will NE.... so the teaser in my opinion is golden.. my history of winning picks speaks for itself. E.A.G.L.E.S..... EAGLES!! 27-24
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
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January 31st, 2018 at 6:18:27 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Eagles and over? What is the odds? I will take say $50. ok??



No thnx. Ive already got lots going on.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
FinsRule
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February 1st, 2018 at 4:22:49 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Thats my play.... my big play is teasing eagles n over. As far as straight up, I still like the eagles and over.

It is the year of the dog!

No one is giving the birds credit and they have been dominant all year long.
They lost their top running back, Sproles, and continue to win.
They lost their top offensive lineman, Peters, and continue to win.
They lost one of their top defensive players, Hicks, and continued to win.
They lost their league MVP candidate quarterback, Wentz, and still continued to win and dominate in NFC championship game.
This is truly a team. No I in team. Pederson has the team prepared every week. They have swag, they have moxie, they have ENERGY!! This is their year.

They will definitely keep it within 11 points and they will put up at least 21...as will NE.... so the teaser in my opinion is golden.. my history of winning picks speaks for itself. E.A.G.L.E.S..... EAGLES!! 27-24



If you have that strong of an opinion, bet it as a parlay! Don't tease totals!
WatchMeWin
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February 1st, 2018 at 5:27:04 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

If you have that strong of an opinion, bet it as a parlay! Don't tease totals!



I did.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
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February 1st, 2018 at 6:48:15 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Thats my play.... my big play is teasing eagles n over. As far as straight up, I still like the eagles and over.

It is the year of the dog!

No one is giving the birds credit and they have been dominant all year long.
They lost their top running back, Sproles, and continue to win.
They lost their top offensive lineman, Peters, and continue to win.
They lost one of their top defensive players, Hicks, and continued to win.
They lost their league MVP candidate quarterback, Wentz, and still continued to win and dominate in NFC championship game.
This is truly a team. No I in team. Pederson has the team prepared every week. They have swag, they have moxie, they have ENERGY!! This is their year.

They will definitely keep it within 11 points and they will put up at least 21...as will NE.... so the teaser in my opinion is golden.. my history of winning picks speaks for itself. E.A.G.L.E.S..... EAGLES!! 27-24



Why, thank you, for the wonderful analyst of the game. You and millions of others will be right.

I also want to thank you again for the money picture. The only thing missing happened to be the cats rolling around in the money, perhaps next time.

Speaking of money, perhaps you missed my post when I suggested putting some money in escrow, bet or not.

At first look, some people might think that Axel sounds ridiculous for even suggesting that. In my defence, you have proposed a fair number of bets(including a craps wager). And now, we were talking about a situation that involved 1k. I can only assume there will be many more bet propositions to come. It just seems that every time I have mentioned some type of escrow and actually putting up the money( I even talked about some easy transfer method to pay off bets immediately for lesser amounts.) I get nothing, or I just get this... I trust you, you trust me spiel(I mean that in the true definition of the word, especially the being meet with scepticism part).

Since you seem to have a propensity for making bets. And what I assume is that you have no pay off history here? Why not put up that 1k in escrow and be done with it? I have a feeling you would get more action than a Hotblonde.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
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February 1st, 2018 at 9:23:30 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Why, thank you, for the wonderful analyst of the game. You and millions of others will be right.

I also want to thank you again for the money picture. The only thing missing happened to be the cats rolling around in the money, perhaps next time.

Speaking of money, perhaps you missed my post when I suggested putting some money in escrow, bet or not.

At first look, some people might think that Axel sounds ridiculous for even suggesting that. In my defence, you have proposed a fair number of bets(including a craps wager). And now, we were talking about a situation that involved 1k. I can only assume there will be many more bet propositions to come. It just seems that every time I have mentioned some type of escrow and actually putting up the money( I even talked about some easy transfer method to pay off bets immediately for lesser amounts.) I get nothing, or I just get this... I trust you, you trust me spiel(I mean that in the true definition of the word, especially the being meet with scepticism part).

Since you seem to have a propensity for making bets. And what I assume is that you have no pay off history here? Why not put up that 1k in escrow and be done with it? I have a feeling you would get more action than a Hotblonde.



You're welcome for the analysis!. However, Millions will be right and millions will be wrong also. It sounds like you are siding with my direction. Take a look at all of the Sports Picks and stock picks that I've posted on this site over the years... It should give you more confidence in this Super Bowl play. You can make all the wisecracks you want, but the numbers speak for themselves. As well as that parlay that I wanted to put in with you that would have won .. :- ) I'm a winner bro! A humble one.

As far as the cats go, not a fan of that type of pussy.

Escrow? If I were looking to do something frequently and on a regular basis then I would consider. But football season is over and a few prepositions on games mainly to combat your and others scrutiny were my objectives. If we ever meet up in AC or Vegas and do that craps proposition then we will put the money up front with a third-party. If I decide to do baseball or basketball on a regular basis , then I will let you know and put up fromt money...
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
GWAE
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February 1st, 2018 at 3:58:06 PM permalink
Ahhh is there a way no one can win? I had some other stuff typed after that but probably shouldn't even joke about it.

As a person from Pittsburgh we are in a tough spot. Root for our hated nemesis in Patriots or our cross state hated city in Philly. Those fans are the worst and I can't possibly hope they ever have anything to cheer for. I don't want to hear about Brady and belichek winning again and I don't want to hear about philly winning after a ton of years of not winning. Sigh...
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
WatchMeWin
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February 1st, 2018 at 4:55:06 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Ahhh is there a way no one can win? I had some other stuff typed after that but probably shouldn't even joke about it.

As a person from Pittsburgh we are in a tough spot. Root for our hated nemesis in Patriots or our cross state hated city in Philly. Those fans are the worst and I can't possibly hope they ever have anything to cheer for. I don't want to hear about Brady and belichek winning again and I don't want to hear about philly winning after a ton of years of not winning. Sigh...



You could always watch women's bowling instead.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
beachbumbabs
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February 1st, 2018 at 5:16:42 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Ahhh is there a way no one can win? I had some other stuff typed after that but probably shouldn't even joke about it.

As a person from Pittsburgh we are in a tough spot. Root for our hated nemesis in Patriots or our cross state hated city in Philly. Those fans are the worst and I can't possibly hope they ever have anything to cheer for. I don't want to hear about Brady and belichek winning again and I don't want to hear about philly winning after a ton of years of not winning. Sigh...



I'm having the same problem. I used to like PHL but their fans are just awful. There are a coupLe of videos around of what it was like for Vikings fans last week at the NFCC game. They had to walk a gauntlet of obscene gestures and profanity in from the parking lots just to get to their seats. Even people stepping into their path and butting them or shoving them just for wearing a purple jersey.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mcallister3200
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February 1st, 2018 at 5:22:28 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Ahhh is there a way no one can win? I had some other stuff typed after that but probably shouldn't even joke about it.

As a person from Pittsburgh we are in a tough spot. Root for our hated nemesis in Patriots or our cross state hated city in Philly. Those fans are the worst and I can't possibly hope they ever have anything to cheer for. I don't want to hear about Brady and belichek winning again and I don't want to hear about philly winning after a ton of years of not winning. Sigh...



Philadelphia is an awful place, just had to +1 that. Can someone cue up Bill Burr Philadelphia incident? I知 too lazy
RogerKint
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February 1st, 2018 at 5:42:12 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Philadelphia is an awful place, just had to +1 that. Can someone cue up Bill Burr Philadelphia incident? I知 too lazy


Nsfw obv
100% risk of ruin
Rigondeaux
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February 1st, 2018 at 9:08:41 PM permalink
Jay Ajaijijy or whatever is around -210 or -220 to not score a TD at tons of places.

He has 2 TDs in 18 games this year. Assume that he has run real bad and should have 3x as many tds. Even then, this should be a great bet.
Wizard
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IndyJeffrey
February 2nd, 2018 at 6:43:55 AM permalink
I've posted before that I'm thinking of doing an English middle on the Super Bowl. That means to bet the favorite on the money and underdog with the points. So you win at least one bet and maybe both. However, if you size your bets properly, you still are at a net loss with just one win.

Before going further, here are some bets here in Vegas:

Wynn: NE wins by 1-3 points -- 6 to 1
Wynn: NE wins by 4-6 points -- 8 to 1
MGM: NE wins by 1 to 6 points -- 14 to 5
William Hill: NE wins by 1 to 6 points -- 5 to 2
Boyd: NE wins by 1 to 6 points -- 5 to 2
Caesars: NE wins by 1 to 6 points -- 5 to 2
South Point: NE wins by 1 to 6 points -- 5 to 2

Looking at the Wynn bets, if we bet 9 units on 1 to 3 and 7 units on 4 to 6, the net winning odds if either range his is 47 to 16, or 2.9375 to 1.

Now let's look at what would happen if I did a careful Polish middle where I lose the same amount if NE covers or the Eagles win outright.

The betting market offers
Eagles +4.5 -110 at lots of places
Pats money line -175 at the Golden Nugget

If one were to bet $446.46 on Patriots money line and $381.10 on Eagles +4.5 one of the following would happen:

Pats cover: Lose $100
Eagles win game: Lose $100
Pats win but don't cover: Win $627.56

This seems a much better value than the prop bet on a Pats win by 1 to 6. Granted that spread covers the 5 and 6 but those are both uncommon margins of victory, especially the 5.

My alternate point spread calculator shows the Pats have a 15.65% chance to win by 1 to 4. That makes the advantage of doing the English middle above 1.68% based on all money bet. However, based on money actually risked is 13.86%! Remember, worst case scenario is you get 89% of your total money bet back. Also, this doesn't consider the fact that Patriots are known for winning or losing, usually winning, by small margins in key games. Here is a history of the Pats recent Super Bowl margins of victory:

51: Win by 6
49: Win by 4
46: Loss by 4
42: Loss by 4
39: Win by 3
38: Win by 3
36: Win by 3

Source

p.s. I don't like this use of Roman numerals.

If you want to do this English middle, remember to shop -175 Pats money line (this may change) and bet 17.15% more on the money line than Eagles +4.5.

Thoughts?
Last edited by: Wizard on Feb 2, 2018
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
weezrDASvegas
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February 2nd, 2018 at 9:23:28 AM permalink
Current line is Patriots to win -5 (in most books). It started at Patriots -6. It dropped to Patriots -4 at the Westgate SuperBook. I think I found a good value in Eagles +5.

Can the Eagles win straightup? Several professional bettors think that way. Forbes magazine reports several 1+ million dollar bets on Philadelphia. Quite a few bettors believe the momentum is with the Eagles. The same what happened to the Giants in the Super Bowl 42 2008. The Giants were underdogs throughout the playoffs like the Eagles this year. If the Eagles win it has to be a blowout, like the first half of last year Super Bowl. Still hard to believe that the Falcons lost. I don稚 think the Eagles would fail a big lead.
weezrDASvegas
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February 2nd, 2018 at 10:33:50 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Followed by two seasons of combined 20 TD, 20 INT. We shouldn稚 pretend that half of his career didn稚 happen. The majority of his time as a starter (at least half of it) he has been a mediocre player. That is a fact, indisputable.



What if a different team picked Tom Brady? What would be of Tom Brady without Bill Belichick? How many qbs were first overall picks and failed miserably? How many off-the-streets players became successful under Belichick?

The headcoach is the most important element in an NFL team (other sports too). Peyton Manning was nobody under Jim Mora. Jeff Fisher destroyed another #1 overall pick Vince Young. Goff is hot now but a bust under Jeff Fisher. Nick Foles failed under Fisher too. Foles plays well depending on particular head coaches. What if Foles played for Bill Belichick? Belichick has a winning record with quarterbacks other than Tom Brady.

Still Bill Belichick didn稚 win Super Bowl 2017. It was lost by the Falcons head coach.
weezrDASvegas
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February 2nd, 2018 at 10:50:37 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I already have modest wagers on Eagles +4.5 and Eagles +3 in the first half. I'm undecided about Patriots money line. If I see -170 I'll take it small.


I wonder why middling. Wiz, you must have stats regards the success rate of middling. I think it diminishes winnings in a large proportion. I think middling is for the faint at heart.
Theoretically every bet is a coin toss. Half of the bettors win half of them lose the bet. But it won稚 be the same winners all the time and the same losers all the time. It evens out in the long run. I won last year痴 SB (Patriots -3) but I was very lucky. I changed my betting this year: Eagles +5. Because what happened last year. If I lose this SB I bet bigger next year. It evens out. We hear mostly of big time bettors who won big. But they don稚 say how many times they lost big.
weezrDASvegas
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February 2nd, 2018 at 11:00:25 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Soopoo you are so down on Foles . Why.
I dont like Eagles because from a regular starter down to a backup is a significant drop. Someone is a backup for a reason. This might be the game of a life time for Foles. I think that might create a massive pressure on him. Just like the Buffalo Bills in the past. They just folded under great pressure. SB is not just like another game. Brady has the experience to deal with it. I think that is worth a lot of points.
I have NE straight up For $100. NE -4.5 for $5. And NE not winning exactly 3 points at 10-1 for $20 with Wizard.
I am back home now and no more hype of SB. Just want to watch a great game with a beer in hand on Sunday.


Tom Brady was a backup for a reason, right? The backup qb Brady started in his first Super Bowl and won it, right? It痴 about the system a head coach creates and sells to the players. Bill Walsh created Joe Montana, not the other way around. What if Doug Peterson created the right system for the backup Foles?

My only bet is Eagles +5. I feel lucky (with points!) I would have easily bet Eagles -3 (with Nick Foles).
DJTeddyBear
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February 2nd, 2018 at 11:55:16 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've posted before that I'm thinking of doing an English middle on the Super Bowl. That means to bet the favorite on the money and underdog with the points. So you win at least one bet and maybe both. However, if you size your bets properly, you still are at a net loss with just one win.
<snip>


I知 no sports bettor, but that sounds dangerously similar to a hedge bet.
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February 2nd, 2018 at 2:45:35 PM permalink
Quote: weezrDASvegas

I wonder why middling. Wiz, you must have stats regards the success rate of middling.



I think my last post in this thread provided a good argument why it's a good value. The only games I middle are the Super Bowl and only in some years. This year is one of them. Right now it is even better because you can get Phily +4.5 at about half the books and Pats money line -170 at Stations.
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weezrDASvegas
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February 2nd, 2018 at 3:05:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think my last post in this thread provided a good argument why it's a good value. The only games I middle are the Super Bowl and only in some years. This year is one of them. Right now it is even better because you can get Phily +4.5 at about half the books and Pats money line -170 at Stations.


It looked a whole lot better with Eagles +5.5. But even then it was risky because the stats favor the Eagles plus they have the momentum. The Patriots wouldn't be here without that questionable call in the last 2 mins (pass interference that wasn't in the eyes of many).

I looked at all scores and averages in NFL 2017 including the playoffs on one page.

New England Patriots
Total points scored and points allowed: 519 330
Averages: 28.8 18.3

Philadelphia Eagles
Total points scored and points allowed: 510 312
Averages: 28.3 17.3

Averages against each other
Patriots vs. Eagles: (28.8+17.3)/2 = 23.05
Eagles vs. Patriots: (28.3+18.3)/2 = 23.3

Eagles have a slight edge: 0.25.
I did not discard the last game of the Eagles in the regular season when they rested their key players (0-7 against the Cowboys). The Patriots had a meaningful game in Week 17. Had the Eagles played for real and won by just 1 point, the Eagles edge would be larger.

The down/under should be set to 47. Eagles Patriots 24-23?

The average NFL score in the 2017 season (playoffs included)
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ahiromu
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February 2nd, 2018 at 4:42:01 PM permalink
Someone dropped to -160 on the Pats earlier today... it isn't there anymore. Stations reeled back from -170, in fact, nobody is offering that anymore. Stations et al are -175 (so sayeth Vegasinsider).

I'm waiting for the over/under to reach 49 without hiking it up to the Wynn. If I can parlay it with Pats -160 to -170 (Wynn is currently -180, another reason I'm waiting) I'll be happy.

Edit: No more 49 at the Wynn. :(
Last edited by: ahiromu on Feb 2, 2018
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February 2nd, 2018 at 7:56:07 PM permalink
To reply to the two posts above:

If you think the Eagles have a 50% chance to win the game, then you should bet only the Eagles side. Maybe you're right. I never claimed to be a handicapper, just a math guy. Most of the money bet on the game is against the spread. If we assume a 4.5 spread is fair, then -170 on the money line the favorite is a good bet. Although I don't claim to be a handicapper, it doesn't meant I don't try sometimes. My rudimentary analysis says that Eagles +4.5 is the right side but I wouldn't put the game at 50/50 by any means. Of course, SOOPOO would argue the Eagles strong record was on the shoulders of Wentz and Foles doesn't make the top 20 QBs in the NFL. I won't get into that again. What is my point? I already made it -- if you think the Eagles with Foles are equal to the Patriots, then you should take Eagles +4.5 only. Don't take them on the money line, it's a bad value.

I too heard that Stations dropped the money on the Patriots from -180 to -160 around 3:00 PM today. They quickly upped it to -170. That is where I put in a fairly big bet. I checked the board after, in the hopes I could move a Super Bowl line, but, no, it remained at -170. Sometimes after I left it moved to -175. I'm sure a lot of people like me pounced on -170 as it was the best line in town.

Finally, I still say bet the under. Let the record show that.

p.s. One more thing, unless you like volatility, I would not parlay the side and the total. There is no significant correlations on small spreads like this. If you loathe volatility, then just bet both sides you like individually.
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FinsRule
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February 2nd, 2018 at 9:50:21 PM permalink
I bet $25 to win $75 on Patriots to win by 1-6. Simple.
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February 3rd, 2018 at 6:43:23 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I bet $25 to win $75 on Patriots to win by 1-6. Simple.



Who has 3 to 1 on that?
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WatchMeWin
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:00:41 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Who has 3 to 1 on that?



That is actually a good bet to hedge with.
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WatchMeWin
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:01:37 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

That is actually a good bet to hedge with.



Is there also a prop bet for Patriots to win by more than 6?
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FinsRule
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:02:42 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Who has 3 to 1 on that?



Bovada.
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