Super Bowl 52 -- Discuss
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25 members have voted
Quote: WizardAre you sure? Those numbers seem very low. The average NFL game has about five touchdowns so 2.5 per team, on average. Not to mention this is a good team. Perhaps these were just passing touchdowns?
Then again, these statistics on Foles do not look very impressive.
I’m sorry, I thought you were asking for him passing touchdowns.
Quote: SOOPOOI can't state it enough. NO TEAM felt Foles was good enough to be their starting QB. Cleveland could have signed him. Houston could have signed him. Indianapolis could have signed him.
Wasn't Brady a low pick when he started his NFL career? Maybe these teams just overlooked a good thing.
Quote: WizardWell, I did say it was rudimentary.
Can anyone quote touchdowns per game by both QB's? I am running late to get to a movie and don't have time to search it.
I must really like you, Wizard.
Okay, I am now looking at all OFFENSIVE TD's in all games started by both QB's during which they played at least into the fourth quarter, so it's apples-to-apples.
Worth mentioning is that Foles was saddled with the abysmal Jeff Fisher Rams for one season, during which he started eleven games and the offense only produced sixteen offensive touchdowns. The 7-9 Rams were fourth to last in total scoring.
Foles: 2.46875 TEAM Offensive TD's/Game
Foles (Excluding Rams): 3 TEAM Offensive TD's/Game
Wentz: 2.5517 TEAM Offensive TD"s/Game
I also didn't hear much about Wentz being the savior of the Philadelphia Eagles last year with his 16 TD's against 14 INT's, different teams every year and Variance in general comes into play. Foles also had to play a season with a garbage offense. Even with that, there doesn't seem to be a huge difference between the two. Maybe one point, two?
Quote: SOOPOO
As always, it is easy to twist the importance of a single stat. I think the stat quoted is how many TD passes each QB throws, not how many TD drives each QB leads, which may end in a running TD.
As you can see above, the gap closes pretty significantly when you look at all offensive TD drives/game led by the QB. There's barely a difference, then. Wentz actually came out better in the passing TD's comparison. Perhaps important, perhaps not, if you don't count the year with the Rams, Foles is better than Wentz (by a ton) in that regard.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardAre you sure? Those numbers seem very low. The average NFL game has about five touchdowns so 2.5 per team, on average. Not to mention this is a good team. Perhaps these were just passing touchdowns?
Then again, these statistics on Foles do not look very impressive.
As always, it is easy to twist the importance of a single stat. I think the stat quoted is how many TD passes each QB throws, not how many TD drives each QB leads, which may end in a running TD. I can't state it enough. NO TEAM felt Foles was good enough to be their starting QB. Cleveland could have signed him. Houston could have signed him. Indianapolis could have signed him.
Is Philly's D and other good offensive players good enough to overcome Brady and the generally average NE roster? We shall see next Sunday. Having watched a lot of NE games this year, I think if they had Edelman they would have been a full notch better than they were.
Are you certain those teams didn't try to sign him? Perhaps he felt he'd rather be a well paid back up on a contender than a tackling dummy on a losing team.
Quote: WizardI just finished a new page which contains all props by several Vegas sports book families. Please check out my new Super Bowl 52 Proposition Bets. It was very tedious work so I hope some will find it helpful.
Link Broken?
I too get a link broken error of "Sorry, game can't be found sports-betting/nfl/super-bowl/52"Quote: kmumfQuote: WizardI just finished a new page which contains all props by several Vegas sports book families. Please check out my new Super Bowl 52 Proposition Bets. It was very tedious work so I hope some will find it helpful.
Link Broken?
Here's the link your link resolves to (in case of any typos): https://wizardofvegas.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/super-bowl/52/
Quote: WizardI just finished a new page which contains all props by several Vegas sports book families. Please check out my new Super Bowl 52 Proposition Bets. It was very tedious work so I hope some will find it helpful.
Try the above modified link.
( http://www.oddsshark.com/super-bowl/props/coin-toss ).
Also in the UK some of the points spread are 4.5
https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/point-spread
Quote: charliepatrickInteresting that under Boyd Heads is -106 and Tails is -104; I didn't check the others except that historically Tails are more common
I think the Westgate offers that one at -102 each way. I'm not surprised that the public is betting heads. Most of the time when people call a flip they call Heads. Also, when you ask someone to pick a random number from 1 to 10, they almost never pick one lower than 5.
but 51 SBs the closest Heads and Tails can be is 26/25, as 25.5 and 25.5 is not a possible outcomeQuote: charliepatrickI didn't check the others except that historically Tails are more common
so at 27/24 just one more and it happens to be Tails.
of course
the last 9 SB flips have been
HHHHH
TTTT
so it has to be tails!
Tail streaks dominate
(or is the Head streaks)
Sally
That is because of thisQuote: WizardI'm not surprised that the public is betting heads. Most of the time when people call a flip they call Heads.
"Call it! Heads or Tails"
Heads is first
you never hear
"Call it. Tails or Heads"
just does not sound right!
Happy Birthday!
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyof course
the last 9 SB flips have been
HHHHH
TTTT
A baccarat player would tell you we'll have one more tail followed by five heads.
A roulette player would say it will be heads because it's overdue.
A craps player would claim he can influence the coin.Quote: WizardA baccarat player would tell you we'll have one more tail followed by five heads.
A roulette player would say it will be heads because it's overdue.
I think that's actually possible.
Quote: AxelWolfA craps player would claim he can influence the coin.
I think that's actually possible.
Of course it can... double sided heads coin!
Quote: SOOPOOWithout quoting all of Mission's posts, he is saying that replacing the MVP of the league (there is no doubt Wentz wins it if he does not get injured) with a backup who has not succeeded in 4 years is not a big deal.
Foles had the best stats of any NFL quarterback ever.
Foles finished the 2013 regular season with 27 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions, surpassing Tom Brady's 2010 season posting of 36/4 for the best TD-INT ratio in NFL history.
Thanks for putting this information together for us!!Quote: WizardThanks. Please try again.
Also, potential typo... at the bottom of the page you have your links to your old super bowl prop picks, and both say the same teams/year:
"
Super Bowl 49 — My prop picks for the Patriots vs. Seattle game of 2015.
Super Bowl 50 — My prop picks for the Patriots vs. Seattle game of 2015.
"
Quote: AxelWolfI took the Eagles at +5
Welcome to the winners circle! What made you take the Eagles?
Quote: onenickelmiracleJust saw on Yahoo, Madden predicts Patriots 24-20.
Safe prediction. I too predict the Patriots will win but not cover. Exact prediction: Pats 27-24.
I may do an English middle on the game, which is to take the Eagles with the points and Patriots on the money line.
Quote: SOOPOOWithout quoting all of Mission's posts, he is saying that replacing the MVP of the league (there is no doubt Wentz wins it if he does not get injured) with a backup who has not succeeded in 4 years is not a big deal. I disagree. I don't hate Nick Foles. I would be interested to see a list of QBs that would be taken ahead of Nick Foles if there were no salary cap issues. Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Smith, Wentz, Goff, Luck, Winston, Mariotta, Tanneyhill, Carr, Newton, Rodgers, Stafford, Dalton, Wilson, Rivers, Cousins, Ryan, Manning are easy. Probably Prescott, Flacco, Garoppolo.
First, it's not a guarantee Wentz wins MVP if he doesn't get injured. He would have needed to play well for next 2-3 games.
I wrote a whole post disagreeing with some of the QBs listed that you said were better than Foles, but what's the point?
My point is this - you're saying Foles is a backup who has not succeeded in 4 years. He literally succeeded less than 2 weeks ago. He has succeeded this season!
I guess it's your definition of a big deal. Now if Wentz wins these last 2 playoff games, maybe the Pats are only 1 or 2 point favorites. If Wentz is magically healed today, and announced as the starter, does the line move more than a point or point and a half?
I literally had the same thought, but then thought I shouldn't because I don't know anything. Was the first thought that popped in my head, so that must mean it's obvious and common, ploppy. If something seems to obvious, it's often mass delusion.Quote: WizardSafe prediction. I too predict the Patriots will win but not cover. Exact prediction: Pats 27-24.
I may do an English middle on the game, which is to take the Eagles with the points and Patriots on the money line.
My idea, you said you may add to your bet earlier, but omitted the word "add". So, I'll go with it being a Freudian slip indicating your true deepest thoughts that you shouldn't do it. Therefore, I'll decide to take Patriots and give the points.
Quote: onenickelmiracleMy idea, you said you may add to your bet earlier, but omitted the word "add". So, I'll go with it being a Freudian slip indicating your true deepest thoughts that you shouldn't do it. Therefore, I'll decide to take Patriots and give the points.
I already have modest wagers on Eagles +4.5 and Eagles +3 in the first half. I'm undecided about Patriots money line. If I see -170 I'll take it small.
I polled the top 5 worst sports pickers ( I started with GWAE (-; ) and bet the opposite.Quote: WatchMeWinWelcome to the winners circle! What made you take the Eagles?
I'm no longer confident after reading your post (-;
Quote: AxelWolfI polled the top 5 worst sports pickers ( I started with GWAE (-; ) and bet the opposite.
I'm no longer confident after reading your post (-;
If you wanna sell of your action I'll buy it for 20 cents on the dollar.
Quote: RSIf you wanna sell of your action I'll buy it for 20 cents on the dollar.
Once a hustler, always a hustler.
WH "no safety" moved from -700 to -800 by the time I bet it. "No OT" moved from -800 to -850. "No missed XP" moved from -260 to -330. I wonder if any of those will move back a little as public money comes in on Saturday. Hope so.
I'll let you know on MondayQuote: RSIf you wanna sell of your action I'll buy it for 20 cents on the dollar.
Quote: SOOPOOWithout quoting all of Mission's posts, he is saying that replacing the MVP of the league (there is no doubt Wentz wins it if he does not get injured) with a backup who has not succeeded in 4 years is not a big deal. I disagree. I don't hate Nick Foles. I would be interested to see a list of QBs that would be taken ahead of Nick Foles if there were no salary cap issues. Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Smith, Wentz, Goff, Luck, Winston, Mariotta, Tanneyhill, Carr, Newton, Rodgers, Stafford, Dalton, Wilson, Rivers, Cousins, Ryan, Manning are easy. Probably Prescott, Flacco, Garoppolo.
I’m sorry, you said, “Without giving any of Mission’s posts context?”
I said Wentz-Foles, based on the stats and in my opinion, is not a five-point swing. Brady-Tebow would be a 5+ Point swing. Aaron Rodgers to Brett Hundley, something like that.
Foles has proved he is more than capable when presented with an offense that he has both had experience with and is not garbage. The stats bear that out. Wentz had a fairly bad year last year. (2016 season)
I’m not saying Foles is better or as good as Wentz. I’d want to see 100 starts from each with roughly similar offenses (other than QB) before I’d get into that. I’m saying that Wentz-Foles alone is not a five point swing. Most QB’s aren’t.
You’re naming mostly starters. The Hell does that prove? Yeah, Brady is a better QB than Foles. He’s better than Wentz, too, what’s your point? I’d take Foles before a few of the guys on your list, but not getting into specifics because it would take 3.5 years and derail the mainline thread. You omitted a couple guys I’d take before Foles. At least one.
That’s why he’s a backup, but you realize it’s possible to have a backup who’s not a significant drop off from your starter, yes? Teams actually actively try to accomplish that, sometimes.
Quote: mcallister3200Followed by two seasons of combined 20 TD, 20 INT. We shouldn’t pretend that half of his career didn’t happen. The majority of his time as a starter (at least half of it) he has been a mediocre player. That is a fact, indisputable.
SOOPOO seems willing to ignore Wentz going 16TD-14INT just last season, so why can’t we pretend half the other guy’s career didn’t happen?
On a side note, Tom Brady has appeared in a Super Bowl every single season he’s started more than one game...if you disregard half his career.
Quote: AxelWolfI polled the top 5 worst sports pickers ( I started with GWAE (-; ) and bet the opposite.
I'm no longer confident after reading your post (-;
You're a funny guy..haha. your statement was a good hedge anyway.
If u dont like your +5 eagles, ill take it up to 1000.
Quote: FinsRuleFirst, it's not a guarantee Wentz wins MVP if he doesn't get injured. He would have needed to play well for next 2-3 games.
I wrote a whole post disagreeing with some of the QBs listed that you said were better than Foles, but what's the point?
My point is this - you're saying Foles is a backup who has not succeeded in 4 years. He literally succeeded less than 2 weeks ago. He has succeeded this season!
I guess it's your definition of a big deal. Now if Wentz wins these last 2 playoff games, maybe the Pats are only 1 or 2 point favorites. If Wentz is magically healed today, and announced as the starter, does the line move more than a point or point and a half?
I believe if Wentz didnt get injured and played at the same level he did for his first 13 games the Pats would be less than a FG favorite. We will never know. Lets make a one beer bet. You win if Foles is a starter on any NFL team week one next year, I win if he is not?
Let me think on that. If I were to do that it would be 1100 or 990(vig and all). Are you going to put up the money with Mike or BBB? I would as well.Quote: WatchMeWinYou're a funny guy..haha. your statement was a good hedge anyway.
If u dont like your +5 eagles, ill take it up to 1000.
Quote: SOOPOOI believe if Wentz didnt get injured and played at the same level he did for his first 13 games the Pats would be less than a FG favorite. We will never know. Lets make a one beer bet. You win if Foles is a starter on any NFL team week one next year, I win if he is not?
I’m perfectly fine with that statement. I can see there perhaps being a 1-2 point drop in light of recent seasons, and two off 4.5 (some books) gets you under a FG. I said that the two are not a five point difference on the spread.
No bet from me. Fringe starter. Might need a few injuries. I’m just saying he’s not a five point drop.
I dont like Eagles because from a regular starter down to a backup is a significant drop. Someone is a backup for a reason. This might be the game of a life time for Foles. I think that might create a massive pressure on him. Just like the Buffalo Bills in the past. They just folded under great pressure. SB is not just like another game. Brady has the experience to deal with it. I think that is worth a lot of points.
I have NE straight up For $100. NE -4.5 for $5. And NE not winning exactly 3 points at 10-1 for $20 with Wizard.
I am back home now and no more hype of SB. Just want to watch a great game with a beer in hand on Sunday.
Quote: speedycrapSoopoo you are so down on Foles . Why.
I dont like Eagles because from a regular starter down to a backup is a significant drop. Someone is a backup for a reason. This might be the game of a life time for Foles. I think that might create a massive pressure on him. Just like the Buffalo Bills in the past. They just folded under great pressure. SB is not just like another game. Brady has the experience to deal with it. I think that is worth a lot of points.
I have NE straight up For $100. NE -4.5 for $5. And NE not winning exactly 3 points at 10-1 for $20 with Wizard.
I am back home now and no more hype of SB. Just want to watch a great game with a beer in hand on Sunday.
I am not a Foles-hater! I just think he is perhaps the 20th best QB, no better. And the other team has the GOAT. Philly's non QB roster I think is far better than NE's. Put Brady on Philly and Foles on NE and Philly is easily a double digit favorite.
Quote: AxelWolfLet me think on that. If I were to do that it would be 1100 or 990(vig and all). Are you going to put up the money with Mike or BBB? I would as well.
I would risk up to 1000.. so 990 to win 900 . Im good for it. I put trust that you are too.
Quote: WatchMeWinI would risk up to 1000.. so 990 to win 900 . Im good for it. I put trust that you are too.
I would much rather put my teaser at risk with eagles + 11.5 and over 41.5.. but if you only want the Eagles plus 5, then that is fine.
Quote: WatchMeWinI would much rather put my teaser at risk with eagles + 11.5 and over 41.5.. but if you only want the Eagles plus 5, then that is fine.
Im good for it..
https://imgur.com/rIhyVog
