SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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August 23rd, 2017 at 5:45:40 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

It is done, the Rules of this game are the Rules of this bet. Since Wizard has default Picks in place, he can never have an 0-5 week.

I don't know if you knew about his Default Picks and were hoping he could No Pick himself into an 0-5 week. If you didn't know that such can't happen, I'll give you one chance to drop the bet. I'm all for this bet, myself, he runs 60% even using the occasional set of defaults.



Bet is made. I am very happy and consider the bet an AP move on my part. If Mike truly could run 60% he'd be a multimillionaire by now. Assuming he makes 80 selections, he must make a record of 49-31 to win. 48-32 to push. I would bet substantially more but feel like I'd be taking advantage.....
Mission146
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Mission146
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August 23rd, 2017 at 5:50:51 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Mission, I'm willing to offer you the same exact same bet the SOOPOO is offering you, for any amount up to $100.00. (I will risk as much as $200.00 to your $100.00.)



So let it be written, so let it be done. $100.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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August 23rd, 2017 at 5:58:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Bet is made. I am very happy and consider the bet an AP move on my part. If Mike truly could run 60% he'd be a multimillionaire by now. Assuming he makes 80 selections, he must make a record of 49-31 to win. 48-32 to push. I would bet substantially more but feel like I'd be taking advantage.....



As with all of us, Mike has the benefit of picking against stale lines. The lines get posted on Thursdays and never change, what that means for Mike is that he can bet against line movements that have already happened. We can assume that said movements have happened for a reason.

For example, let's say that NE was -6 and got posted Thursday but Brady AND Garoppolo both get hurt in practice and the line on NE drops down to -2. Mike can take the opposing team at +6 because the lines for this game do not change when they have been posted. That's an extreme example, but same general idea.

Like I said, I like my side of the bet. He is at over 60% considering every Pick he has ever made on this game.

His lifetime record is 272-169 for a winning percentage of 61.678%, that's lifetime. He has been at 60%+ 3 of 5 seasons. The numbers, limited though they are, are technically on my side for an Even Money bet. Getting 2:1 is a no-brainer.
Vultures can't be choosers.
EdCollins
EdCollins 
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
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August 24th, 2017 at 4:28:03 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

So let it be written, so let it be done. $100.

Thanks.

After thinking about it, and after determining what I believe is my edge, I'm willing to bet more, if you desire. (Hey, we only live once, right?)

Think about it and let me know.
Mission146
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Mission146
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August 24th, 2017 at 5:37:24 PM permalink
I believe I will also put some thought into increasing my bet. I'm starting to wonder if you guys know something that I don't. The raw numbers really seem to favor my side.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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August 24th, 2017 at 5:53:15 PM permalink
SEMI-REGULAR PAYMENT UPDATE

In terms of payments, payment has now been fully satisfied by eleven players, so we are up to thirteen if you include myself and WoN as paid by way of donation. In addition to that, there are five players who have committed to paying via Personal Check, and I believe all five of those players will. Effectively, that puts us at sixteen (or eighteen including myself and WoN). They are just not on the paid list because I've not received the checks yet.

I'm starting to wonder if I sent the invites too early, perhaps people looked at them and said, "That's not for another three weeks," and that is why we only have thirteen/eighteen so far. Either way, on or around September 5th, I'll probably send a payment reminder ONLY to Members who have played the game in the past just to make sure they didn't intend to do it and forgot.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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August 30th, 2017 at 8:40:58 AM permalink
I'm just now seeing this thread... as I was wondering where the NFL games threads have been =P. 2 years ago I did one where you got a fake $10k bankroll and bet money each week. I liked that one but assuming that's no longer available, I'd like to do the picks game!

*Disclaimer: I'm not the best with NFL sports betting and rarely ever do it... So this is me basically donating $25 and 1 more person to the game =D. That being said, I'm of course going to still try to win!

I know Scottimus loves this game, so I'll poke him to join in the fun as I'm sure he will. Should be 2 more incoming then.

Mission, my feelings are hurt that I didn't get a PM from you =(.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Mission146
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Mission146
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August 30th, 2017 at 9:35:48 AM permalink
Great to have you aboard!

I'll send you a PM with payment details later on.

You probably got a PM from me a few years ago and didn't play, though I can't guarantee it. I typically PM people who have played before, are active in the Discussion Thread from the previous year, or have been Members for roughly one year or less and have 10+ posts.

I'm sorry, but it's possible you may not have met any of those criteria for a PM.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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September 4th, 2017 at 6:03:05 PM permalink
UPDATE:

We have sixteen paid in full participants, which is eighteen, if you count myself and Wizard of Nothing.

The timing of our hosting server people getting Doxxed really kind of (redacted) this (redacted) (omitted) (deleted) contest right (redacted) (deleted) (omitted) in the (redacted) (deleted).

I'm pretty upset.

The only thing I can really do is resend some PM reminders, just to make sure people get them. I'm not going to do this for the people who have never played before, though, because it reaches the point where I'd just be Spamming. It's just a shame, the timing, because I'm not even positive we'll end up with as many players as last year...and that's despite getting a few completely new players.

It's just a shame, but we'll see what can be salvaged.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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September 4th, 2017 at 6:05:03 PM permalink
What would the general opinion be on maybe postponing the first week of the contest until Week 2, or maybe having a Week 1, but giving new players (as of Week 2) a Skip Week even if they miss Week 1?

I really wanted to get up to fifty participants, but I don't see how that's going to happen.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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