EdCollins
EdCollins
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November 14th, 2017 at 10:57:26 AM permalink
I'm in that middle area where, with one very good week I would be right up there contesting the leaders... and with one very bad week I will be right there contesting for the Mr. Average award.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 14th, 2017 at 11:12:13 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Keep my record for the purposes of the overall, but I'll not be making any more picks this season. This is humiliating.



I think I'm 5-19 in the last four weeks. Still, I have faith in my strategy. Likewise, you should not give up based on half a season. Keep calm and carry on.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gordonm888
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November 14th, 2017 at 12:39:32 PM permalink
Mission I also want to encourage you to hang in there. I went 1-11 in a 2 week stretch where I felt that most of my picks were pretty sound but nothing worked out for me. I was embarrassed and discouraged and I remember that you were way above me on the leaderboard and I was looking up and wishing I had your success. I've gone 11-6 since then - not a miraculous recovery by any means, but solid progress upwards.

I think gambling as a hobby or a profession requires at least these two personality traits:
- the ability to cope emotionally with large negative swings of luck. "Negative variance" happens.
- the tendency for self-examination,i.e., to work persistently at critically reviewing all of your assumptions and methods and to try to improve.

I noticed this week that other than soopoo, (who went 6-0 and obviously must be cheating somehow) that every single contestant had at least 2 incorrect picks. When its "Against the Spread," we are all humbled.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Romes
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November 14th, 2017 at 12:47:50 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

...I noticed this week that other than soopoo, (who went 6-0 and obviously must be cheating somehow)...

I think this needs more attention. Can we find a way to disqualify him? Even if we can't PROVE he's cheating, just like ZK, we all know he's cheating, right? Right???

=D
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
JohnnyQ
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November 14th, 2017 at 2:40:55 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I think this needs more attention. Can we find a way to disqualify him? Even if we can't PROVE he's cheating, just like ZK, we all know he's cheating, right? Right???

=D

Well, at the very least we need to know what SOOPOO knew, and when, right ? Collusion ? Well, that's not for me to say. But I also can't rule it out. I did notice that he hasn't volunteered for a lie detector test.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
JohnnyQ
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November 14th, 2017 at 2:43:46 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

I'm in that middle area where, with one very good week I would be right up there contesting the leaders... and with one very bad week I will be right there contesting for the Mr. Average award.

Yet with all that going for you, I don't think I want to trade records. Not yet, anyhows.

;-)

I suppose your logic actually applies to a number of folks. Lotta games left to be played.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
Johnzimbo
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beachbumbabsRomes
November 14th, 2017 at 3:48:42 PM permalink
Haha my wife (DLW) and I are both now at exactly 50%. she of the random picks, me of the "trying to pick winners" system. Bragging rights coming down to the last few weeks!
JohnnyQ
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November 14th, 2017 at 5:37:45 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Haha my wife (DLW) and I are both now at exactly 50%.

IF you both went 3-2 next week, you will be be closer to 0.500 than she is, 0.508 vs 0.509, but you'll have to hope ROMES nudges himself off 0.500
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
terapined
terapined
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November 14th, 2017 at 6:01:51 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'll keep playing, I was bound to have a losing season sooner or later, I suppose...


Do what I do
Its quick and easy
I don't pick who I think will beat the spread
I simply pick as a fan. I find 5 games that interest me. Simply pick the teams I want to win as a fan
That's it, gotten me to 4th place so far :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
JohnnyQ
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November 15th, 2017 at 3:31:07 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Simply pick the teams I want to win as a fan

Oh great, the cat's out of the bag and this contest is going to blow-up now, "big-ly" !
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
SOOPOO
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Romes
November 15th, 2017 at 6:32:27 AM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Quote: Romes

I think this needs more attention. Can we find a way to disqualify him? Even if we can't PROVE he's cheating, just like ZK, we all know he's cheating, right? Right???

=D

Well, at the very least we need to know what SOOPOO knew, and when, right ? Collusion ? Well, that's not for me to say. But I also can't rule it out. I did notice that he hasn't volunteered for a lie detector test.



My record is interesting. I am pretty sure in the history of this game I have far more perfect weeks than any player, and far more winless weeks than any player. As my Mr. Average title from last year proves, when I think I know something I really don't.
Romes
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November 15th, 2017 at 7:43:33 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Haha my wife (DLW) and I are both now at exactly 50%. she of the random picks, me of the "trying to pick winners" system. Bragging rights coming down to the last few weeks!

You and your wife need to leave my 50% ALONE! I've had my butt firmly parked here for WEEKS! Don't come to my Mr. Average spot like some tourist and think you own it! (lol)

(you'll both beat me, don't worry) =)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Mission146
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November 16th, 2017 at 8:51:43 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Mission

I think gambling as a hobby or a profession requires at least these two personality traits:
- the ability to cope emotionally with large negative swings of luck. "Negative variance" happens.
- the tendency for self-examination,i.e., to work persistently at critically reviewing all of your assumptions and methods and to try to improve.



I know, it's not the losing I mind so much, it's people seeing me lose.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
DRich
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Mission146
November 16th, 2017 at 1:30:06 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I know, it's not the losing I mind so much, it's people seeing me lose.



Don't worry, we really didn't think much of you before the losing streak either. j/k
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
JohnnyQ
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Mission146
November 16th, 2017 at 3:07:36 PM permalink
Ba-Zinga !
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
Mission146
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November 17th, 2017 at 2:08:53 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 11 Lines are as follows:

Lions (-3) @ Bears (+3) O/U 41
Chiefs (-10) @ Giants (+10) O/U 46
Buccaneers (PK) @ Dolphins (PK) O/U 41.5
Ravens (-2) @ Packers (+2) O/U 38
Rams (+2.5) @ Vikings (-2.5) O/U 46
Cardinals (+1) @ Texans (-1) O/U 38.5
Jaguars (-8) @ Browns (+8) O/U 37
Redskins (+7.5) @ Saints (-7.5) O/U 51
Bills (+5.5) @ Chargers (-5.5) O/U 42.5
Bengals (+2.5) @ Broncos (-2.5) O/U 38.5
Patriots (-7) @ Raiders (+7) O/U 54.5
Eagles (-4.5) @ Cowboys (+4.5) O/U 48
Falcons (+3) @ Seahawks (-3) O/U 45
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
jplot
jplot
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November 18th, 2017 at 8:43:01 PM permalink
JPlot:
Cowboys +4.5 Confidence
Falcons +3
Patriots UNDER
Raiders +7
Buccaneers UNDER
Mission146
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November 19th, 2017 at 9:35:16 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 11 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Buccaneers PK
Saints -7.5
Bills +5.5
Eagles -4.5
Falcons +3

WizardofNothing:
Eagles -4.5 CONFIDENCE
Eagles OVER 48
Lions -3
Chiefs -10
Chiefs OVER 46

Terapined:
Bucs pk
Giants +10
Ravens -2
Saints -7.5
Browns +8

JW17:
Broncos (-2.5) Confidence
Giants (+10)
Saints (-7.5)
Texans (-1)
Packers (+2)

JohnnyQ:
Bears (+3)
Dolphins (PK)
Packers (+2)
Eagles (-4.5)
Patriots U 54.5

DrZ:
Giants (+10)
Packers (+2)
Browns (+8)
Bengals O 38.5
Seahawks (-3)

Odiousgambit:
Jaguars UNDER 37
Lions -3
Cardinals +1
Bills +5.5
Eagles -4.5

JohnZimbo:
Jaguars -8
Broncos -2.5 confidence
Cowboys +4.5
Falcons +3
Rams under 46

KMUMF:
Patriots -7
Rams +2.5
Dolphins pk
Eagles -4.5
Packers +2

SOOPOO:
Falcons +3
Cowboys +4.5
Raiders +7
Giants +10
Lions -3 (confidence)

Rainman:
falcons +3
cowboys +4.5
Dolphins
Vikings -2.5
cardinals +1

EdCollins:
Lions -3
Packers +2
Rams +2.5
Broncos -2.5
Eagles -4.5

Wizard:
Eagles (-4.5)
Falcons (+3) -- confidence
Redskins (+7.5)
Browns (+8)
Giants (+10)

Sparty10k:
Lions-3
Rams +2.5
Texans -1
Raiders under 54.5-confidence
Falcons +3

Gordonm888:
Buccaneers UNDER 41.5
Packers +2
Cardinals UNDER 38.5
Raiders +7
Broncos -2.5 Confidence

BeachBumBabs:
Vikings - 2.5 confidence
Lions -3
Texans -1
Bills +5.5
Eagles -4.5

RisingDough:
Dolphins pk
Rams +2.5
Browns +8 CONFIDENCE
Saints -7.5
Cowboys +4.5

PlayYourCardsRight:
Bears +3
Buccaneers PICK
Ravens -2
Redskins +7.5
Redskins UNDER 51 CONFIDENCE

miplet:
Buccaneers PK
Browns +8
Chargers -5.5
Eagles -4.5
Falcons +3-confidence

MidwestAP:
Dolphins Pk
Texans -1
Saints -7.5 - Confidence
Chargers -5.5
Eagles -4.5

JPLOT:
Cowboys +4.5. Confidence
Raiders +7
Falcons +3
Patriots Under
Buccaneers Under

GenWyzgy:
Dolphins OVER 41.5
Packers +2
Rams UNDER 46
Bengals +2.5
Patriots UNDER 54.5

Romes:
Vikings -2.5
Texans -1
Saints -5.5
Chargers -5.5
Broncos -2.5 CONFIDENCE

DLW6486:
Broncos UNDER 38.5
Bears UNDER 41
Seahawks OVER 45
Packers UNDER 38
Browns UNDER 37
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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November 19th, 2017 at 9:35:24 AM permalink
Bills +5.5 is my fade of the week!

I really think the public is WAY overreacting to what happened to them last week, so I am specifically going against line move and trusting the initial handicappers on this one. Besides that, the Saints have a high-powered offense, and I'm not convinced that the Chargers are actually going to play an offense this game, might just have Special Teams stay out there for the whole thing.

Here is how I am kind of looking at it:

Bills Offense: 20.44 PPG
Bills Defense: 21.78 PPG

Chargers Offense: 18.56 PPG
Chargers Defense: 19.11 PPG

Offense: 20.44 - 18.56 = 1.88 Bills
Defense: 21.78 - 19.11 = 2.67 Chargers

Absolute Difference: 2.67 - 1.88 = 0.79 Chargers

Line: Chargers -1

Then, I think the opening Line may well have given the Chargers three points for home, but they don't really have a home. Even still, I don't think the Bills should be 5.5 point dogs, much less the increase such that they currently sit at 6.5-7 point dogs with a -10 or -5 lay.

Bills all day long.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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November 19th, 2017 at 9:41:51 AM permalink
The above post may self-destruct. I'm kidding, of course, but the Bills might.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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November 19th, 2017 at 9:48:51 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Bills +5.5 is my fade of the week!

I really think the public is WAY overreacting to what happened to them last week, so I am specifically going against line move and trusting the initial handicappers on this one. Besides that, the Saints have a high-powered offense, and I'm not convinced that the Chargers are actually going to play an offense this game, might just have Special Teams stay out there for the whole thing.

Here is how I am kind of looking at it:

Bills Offense: 20.44 PPG
Bills Defense: 21.78 PPG

Chargers Offense: 18.56 PPG
Chargers Defense: 19.11 PPG

Offense: 20.44 - 18.56 = 1.88 Bills
Defense: 21.78 - 19.11 = 2.67 Chargers

Absolute Difference: 2.67 - 1.88 = 0.79 Chargers

Line: Chargers -1

Then, I think the opening Line may well have given the Chargers three points for home, but they don't really have a home. Even still, I don't think the Bills should be 5.5 point dogs, much less the increase such that they currently sit at 6.5-7 point dogs with a -10 or -5 lay.

Bills all day long.



Ummmm.... does your analysis include data on a new QB? How about defense against the run WITH Marcel Dareus (top few) and WITHOUT Marcel Dareus (bottom few)? The Bills were carved up both through the air and on the ground against both the Jets and the Saints since trading Dareus. I assume you saw ZERO of their last two games to make your selection. I think the Bills might be the second worst team in the league right now (sorry Browns...) If 5th round pick Nathan Peterman plays like a first rounder then I will be proven wrong. I'll take Chargers -5.5 for a $2 bill if you want that action.
Mission146
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November 19th, 2017 at 10:02:06 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Ummmm.... does your analysis include data on a new QB? How about defense against the run WITH Marcel Dareus (top few) and WITHOUT Marcel Dareus (bottom few)? The Bills were carved up both through the air and on the ground against both the Jets and the Saints since trading Dareus. I assume you saw ZERO of their last two games to make your selection. I think the Bills might be the second worst team in the league right now (sorry Browns...) If 5th round pick Nathan Peterman plays like a first rounder then I will be proven wrong. I'll take Chargers -5.5 for a $2 bill if you want that action.



We're on! Assuming you mean two dollars, not slang for two hundred. I'm not that confident! I will acquire and mail you an actual two dollar bill if I lose.

The QB situation is of little to no interest to me because I don't think it makes much of a difference. If the season ended this minute, the Bills would be in the playoffs as a WildCard, so despite looking awful the last couple of games, they can't be as bad as the Browns. The Saints have a high-powered offense, best in the league, or in the top two or three. The Jets are averaging 1.5 more PPG than the Chargers on Offense.

MCCown has been much more efficient than Rivers this year and Rivers has no meaningful support. Rivers is not playing at 100%.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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November 19th, 2017 at 11:13:15 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

We're on! Assuming you mean two dollars, not slang for two hundred. I'm not that confident! I will acquire and mail you an actual two dollar bill if I lose.

The QB situation is of little to no interest to me because I don't think it makes much of a difference. If the season ended this minute, the Bills would be in the playoffs as a WildCard, so despite looking awful the last couple of games, they can't be as bad as the Browns. The Saints have a high-powered offense, best in the league, or in the top two or three. The Jets are averaging 1.5 more PPG than the Chargers on Offense.

MCCown has been much more efficient than Rivers this year and Rivers has no meaningful support. Rivers is not playing at 100%.



Yes. $2. Mike will pay such a debt with an actual $2 bill. What is fascinating is that two seemingly intelligent guys (me band you) can be presented with the same fact set and come to a totally different conclusion. Remember, you are going against a guy who had gotten ONE of his confidence picks right this year!
Mission146
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November 19th, 2017 at 11:24:46 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Yes. $2. Mike will pay such a debt with an actual $2 bill. What is fascinating is that two seemingly intelligent guys (me band you) can be presented with the same fact set and come to a totally different conclusion. Remember, you are going against a guy who had gotten ONE of his confidence picks right this year!



We have an Anesthesiologist vs. a guy who was lucky to spell that right, though, so you've probably got me beat! I really did nail that spelling on the first try, for the record. That will be a consolation as I am driving from bank to bank to try to procure a $2 bill after the Bills get curb-stomped.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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November 19th, 2017 at 4:24:08 PM permalink
Sad. Browns. Sad.
Guys (Ed and MAP), please PM me on how you want your $10 each.
PayPal would be my preference. If so, I'll need an email address. Otherwise, let me know.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
JohnnyQ
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November 19th, 2017 at 4:37:41 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Bills +5.5 is my fade of the week!

Or +30.5 !
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
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November 19th, 2017 at 5:15:10 PM permalink
Well, I'm not about to embark on a sports betting career.

I went 0-6 for the 2nd week this season -and most of my picks missed by a mile. And of the other 4 picks I was considering this week (one of which was Mission146's Bills) , I would have lost 3 and pushed on 1. So, I would have been 0-9-1 - that's pretty improbable if each game was a coin-flip.

I have to conclude that this is not just negative variance. I truly must suck-eth mightily.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
GenWyzgy
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November 19th, 2017 at 5:39:38 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



My record is interesting. I am pretty sure in the history of this game I have far more perfect weeks than any player, and far more winless weeks than any player. As my Mr. Average title from last year proves, when I think I know something I really don't.



Oh SOOPOO, I hate to call you out or anything,, But I am the defending Mr. Average!

Maybe you were in 2015?

I had to go 5-0 in week 17 to get to .500, but I did it and won the coveted title!

SOOPOO 50 42 54.35%
GWAE 54 46 54.00%
Wudged 48 42 53.33%
AyeCarumba 49 43 53.26%
Paradigm 50 44 53.19%
FourFiveFace 51 45 53.13%
JML24 44 39 53.01%
Aluisio 45 40 52.94%
Terapined 41 38 51.90%
EdCollins 45 43 51.14%
GenWyzgy 47 46 50.54%
SM777 42 45 48.28%

Now, by virtue of a 4-1 week, I should be at exactly .500 so far this season. Ah, it feels good to be back home!
miplet
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November 19th, 2017 at 7:44:11 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Falcons +3-confidence


Wow for the first time in the history of doing picks I have never went against the Seahawks (that I recall). I was in a rush and did my usual copy and paste. Seen the +3 and the current line of +2 so I made that my confidence pick.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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November 20th, 2017 at 5:17:03 AM permalink
Quote: GenWyzgy

Oh SOOPOO, I hate to call you out or anything,, But I am the defending Mr. Average!

Maybe you were in 2015



You must be right! But I'm coming after you this year then........
JohnnyQ
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November 20th, 2017 at 2:25:44 PM permalink
Quote: GenWyzgy

Oh SOOPOO, I hate to call you out or anything,, But I am the defending Mr. Average!

Well speaking of Average, I am 2-2 this week.

Still good enough to stay on top of the heap ?

- I think so, but opening the door a little wider each week.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
EdCollins
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November 20th, 2017 at 8:50:51 PM permalink
Unofficial Week 11 Results and Current Standings

Mission146 (3-2)
Buccaneers PK (win)
Saints -7.5 (loss)
Bills +5.5 (loss)
Eagles -4.5 (win)
Falcons +3 (win)

WizardofNothing (2-3)
Eagles -4.5 Confidence (win)
Eagles OVER 48 (loss)
Lions -3 (push)
Chiefs -10 (loss)
Chiefs OVER 46 (loss)

Terapined (3-2)
Bucs pk (win)
Giants +10 (win)
Ravens -2 (win)
Saints -7.5 (loss)
Browns +8 (loss)

JW17 (2-4)
Broncos (-2.5) Confidence (loss)
Giants (+10) (win)
Saints (-7.5) (loss)
Texans (-1) (win)
Packers (+2) (loss)

JohnnyQ (2-2)
Bears (+3) (push)
Dolphins (PK) (loss)
Packers (+2) (loss)
Eagles (-4.5) (win)
Patriots UNDER 54.5 (win)

DrZin (1-4)
Giants (+10) (win)
Packers (+2) (loss)
Browns (+8) (loss)
Bengals OVER 38.5 (loss)
Seahawks (-3) (loss)

Odiousgambit (2-2)
Jaguars UNDER 37 (win)
Lions -3 (push)
Cardinals +1 (loss)
Bills +5.5 (loss)
Eagles -4.5 (win)

JohnZimbo (3-3)
Jaguars -8 (win)
Broncos -2.5 Confidence (loss)
Cowboys +4.5 (loss)
Falcons +3 (win)
Rams UNDER 46 (win)

KMUMF (2-3)
Patriots -7 (win)
Rams +2.5 (loss)
Dolphins pk (loss)
Eagles -4.5 (win)
Packers +2 (loss)

SOOPOO (2-2)
Falcons +3 (win)
Cowboys +4.5 (loss)
Raiders +7 (loss)
Giants +10 (win)
Lions -3 (Confidence) (push)

Rainman (2-3)
falcons +3 (win)
cowboys +4.5 (loss)
Dolphins (loss)
Vikings -2.5 (win)
cardinals +1 (loss)

EdCollins (1-3)
Lions -3 (push)
Packers +2 (loss)
Rams +2.5 (loss)
Broncos -2.5 (loss)
Eagles -4.5 (win)

Wizard (5-1)
Eagles (-4.5) (win)
Falcons (+3) Confidence (win)
Redskins (+7.5) (win)
Browns (+8) (loss)
Giants (+10) (win)

Sparty10k (4-1)
Lions-3 (push)
Rams +2.5 (loss)
Texans -1 (win)
Raiders UNDER 54.5 Confidence (win)
Falcons +3 (win)

Gordonm888 (0-6)
Buccaneers UNDER 41.5 (loss)
Packers +2 (loss)
Cardinals UNDER 38.5 (loss)
Raiders +7 (loss)
Broncos -2.5 Confidence (loss)

BeachBumBabs (4-1)
Vikings - 2.5 Confidence (win)
Lions -3 (push)
Texans -1 (win)
Bills +5.5 (loss)
Eagles -4.5 (win)

RisingDough (0-6)
Dolphins pk (loss)
Rams +2.5 (loss)
Browns +8 Confidence (loss)
Saints -7.5 (loss)
Cowboys +4.5 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (3-2)
Bears +3 (push)
Buccaneers PICK (win)
Ravens -2 (win)
Redskins +7.5 (win)
Redskins UNDER 51 Confidence (loss)

miplet (5-1)
Buccaneers PK (win)
Browns +8 (loss)
Chargers -5.5 (win)
Eagles -4.5 (win)
Falcons +3 Confidence (win)

MidwestAP (3-3)
Dolphins Pk (loss)
Texans -1 (win)
Saints -7.5 Confidence (loss)
Chargers -5.5 (win)
Eagles -4.5 (win)

JPLOT (2-4)
Cowboys +4.5. Confidence (loss)
Raiders +7 (loss)
Falcons +3 (win)
Patriots UNDER (win)
Buccaneers UNDER (loss)

GenWyzgy (4-1)
Dolphins OVER 41.5 (win)
Packers +2 (loss)
Rams UNDER 46 (win)
Bengals +2.5 (win)
Patriots UNDER 54.5 (win)

Romes (3-3)
Vikings -2.5 (win)
Texans -1 (win)
Saints -5.5 (loss)
Chargers -5.5 (win)
Broncos -2.5 Confidence (loss)

DLW6486 (4-1)
Broncos UNDER 38.5 (win)
Bears UNDER 41 (loss)
Seahawks OVER 45 (win)
Packers UNDER 38 (win)
Browns UNDER 37 (win)


Name Wins Losses %
JohnnyQ 32 20 61.54%
WizardofNothing 38 26 59.38%
MidwestAP 34 25 57.63%
BeachBumBabs 35 26 57.38%
terapined 30 23 56.60%
Wizard 36 28 56.25%
miplet 35 29 54.69%
Sparty10k 33 28 54.10%
KMUMF 25 22 53.19%
Mission146 26 23 53.06%
DLW6486 28 25 52.83%
rainman 28 25 52.83%
EdCollins 29 26 52.73%
GenWyzgy 29 29 50.00%
JohnZimbo 31 31 50.00%
Romes 29 29 50.00%
SOOPOO 30 31 49.18%
Gordonm888 27 31 46.55%
DrZin 25 29 46.30%
PlayYourCardsRight 23 29 44.23%
JPlot 25 32 43.86%
RisingDough 26 35 42.62%
odiousgambit 20 27 42.55%
JW17 25 37 40.32%
Totals 699 666 51.21%


Record of Skip Weeks:

Gordonm888: Week 4
JPlot: Week 10
KMUMF: Week 2
Mission146: Week 6
odiousgambit: Week 5
PlayYourCardsRight: Week 7
rainman: Week 7
Romes: Week 4
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
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Joined: Nov 3, 2009
Thanked by
RisingDough
November 21st, 2017 at 3:33:23 AM permalink
I had a little fun pointing out that RisingDough had a perfect week in week #9, 0-6. Ditto in week #11.

But week #10 was a solid 2-4.

Is there a rule against sharing your picks with other contestants via pm ? Or can I make default picks for week #12 that are the opposite of whatever RD picks ? j/k. Sortof.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
Mission146
Mission146
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Joined: May 15, 2012
November 21st, 2017 at 4:38:12 AM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

I had a little fun pointing out that RisingDough had a perfect week in week #9, 0-6. Ditto in week #11.

But week #10 was a solid 2-4.

Is there a rule against sharing your picks with other contestants via pm ? Or can I make default picks for week #12 that are the opposite of whatever RD picks ? j/k. Sortof.



It’s something to watch regression to the mean inevitably play out as the season goes on!

I can say that there is no rule against contestants sharing Picks. Hell, you could technically publicly post Picks, the Rules don’t address that at all.

Please don’t make me write more rules...lol

No, you cannot make defaults specifically to fade someone!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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Joined: Feb 19, 2012
November 21st, 2017 at 7:06:07 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Sad. Browns. Sad.
Guys (Ed and MAP), please PM me on how you want your $10 each.
PayPal would be my preference. If so, I'll need an email address. Otherwise, let me know.



BBB - Lol, the bet wasn't so much that I liked the Niners, but always feel good betting against the Browns! I can PM you, but first want to offer a double or nothing proposition. Right now you are 0.25% behind me in the contest. Would you like to bet who will finish higher by season's end?
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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Joined: May 21, 2013
November 21st, 2017 at 9:40:38 AM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

BBB - Lol, the bet wasn't so much that I liked the Niners, but always feel good betting against the Browns! I can PM you, but first want to offer a double or nothing proposition. Right now you are 0.25% behind me in the contest. Would you like to bet who will finish higher by season's end?



Let me think about that for a bit. It feels like a hex, now that I'm going better, but I might be up for it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
EdCollins
EdCollins
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Thanked by
beachbumbabs
November 21st, 2017 at 10:28:01 AM permalink
Payment received Babs. Thanks!
RisingDough
RisingDough
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November 21st, 2017 at 11:32:42 AM permalink
Going 0-6 is just as impressive as going 6-0 so give credit where it is due!
What is life if not a gamble?
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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Joined: May 21, 2013
November 21st, 2017 at 11:37:50 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Let me think about that for a bit. It feels like a hex, now that I'm going better, but I might be up for it.



Ok, double or nothing, better record after week 17. Exact tie (percentage) I still owe you 10.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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Joined: Feb 19, 2012
November 21st, 2017 at 11:40:46 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Ok, double or nothing, better record after week 17. Exact tie (percentage) I still owe you 10.



Acknowledged, good luck!
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
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Thanked by
RisingDough
November 21st, 2017 at 7:05:47 PM permalink
Quote: RisingDough

Going 0-6 is just as impressive as going 6-0 so give credit where it is due!

Well in that case hats off to Soopoo who has 3 total, 2 have no losses and 1 has no wins.

Wizard, Sparky10K, and I have 2 weeks with no losses.

GordonM888 and RisingDough have 2 weeks with no wins.

Kmumf and Wizard of Nothing have 2 total, 1 on each side.

And a number of others have 1 perfect week.

- If I recall correctly. j/k, I went back through all the weeks.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
bbcpjc
bbcpjc
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Joined: Nov 15, 2009
November 22nd, 2017 at 2:30:36 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Sad. Browns. Sad.
Guys (Ed and MAP), please PM me on how you want your $10 each.
PayPal would be my preference. If so, I'll need an email address. Otherwise, let me know.



I read today that the Browns can still make the playoffs. I think it was 43 results going their way including ties. I'm not hopeful.
EdCollins
EdCollins
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Joined: Oct 21, 2011
November 22nd, 2017 at 2:36:44 PM permalink
Quote: bbcpjc

I read today that the Browns can still make the playoffs. I think it was 43 results going their way including ties. I'm not hopeful.


That's hilarious!

I googled it and you're absolutely correct, assuming this page is correct:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-news-browns-your-chances-of-making-the-playoffs-are-only-1-in-19-quintillion/
Mission146
Mission146
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Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
JohnnyQSOOPOO
November 22nd, 2017 at 7:44:25 PM permalink
Those are slightly better than their odds to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, as I understand it. Good thing there are so many weak AFC teams this year.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 23rd, 2017 at 5:39:37 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

That's hilarious!

I googled it and you're absolutely correct, assuming this page is correct:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-news-browns-your-chances-of-making-the-playoffs-are-only-1-in-19-quintillion/



I made the bet, but they only gave me 10 quintillion to 1..... Damn vig.....
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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November 23rd, 2017 at 6:53:42 AM permalink
Still 2000x more likely than 18 yo's in a row. :-)
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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November 23rd, 2017 at 11:38:40 AM permalink
I was waiting for that one to be Added - somewhere ace and Allan are smiling
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
Mission146
Mission146
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Joined: May 15, 2012
November 24th, 2017 at 2:29:49 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 12 Lines are as follows:

Browns (+8.5) @ Bengals (-8.5) O/U 38
Bears (+14) @ Eagles (-14) O/U 44
Dolphins (+16.5) @ Patriots (-16.5) O/U 47.5
Bills (+10) @ Chiefs (-10) O/U 46.5
Buccaneers (+9.5) @ Falcons (-9.5) O/U 48.5
Panthers (-5.5) @ Jets (+5.5) O/U 40
Titans (-3.5) @ Colts (+3.5) O/U 45.5
Seahawks (-6.5) @ 49ers (+6.5) O/U 45
Saints (+2.5) @ Rams (-2.5) O/U 53.5
Jaguars (-5) @ Cardinals (+5) O/U 38
Broncos (+5) @ Raiders (-5) O/U 43.5
Packers (+14) @ Steelers (-14) O/U 43.5
Texans (+7) @ Ravens (-7) O/U 38
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 25th, 2017 at 12:14:35 PM permalink
I am no expert (check my record) but almost all of the double digit spreads just seem way to high in the MFL (mediocre football league). Chiefs have been strong winning ONE of their last 5 games, so they are 10 point favorite over anyone? The Eagles are good, but the Bears are a real NFL team, 14 points? How many key players are Pats missing.... 16.5 point favorites...? BRADY... Steelers look above average, not great, 14 points?
Mission146
Mission146
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Joined: May 15, 2012
November 26th, 2017 at 9:19:26 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 12 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Browns +8.5
Bills +10
Buccaneers +10
Jaguars -5
Broncos +5

JW17:
Broncos +5 Confidence
Browns +8.5
Dolphins +16.5
Eagles -14
Packers +14

WizardofNothing:
Eagles -14 CONFIDENCE
Eagles OVER 44
Rams OVER 53.5
Patriots -16.5
Titans -3.5

JohnZimbo:
Broncos under 43.5
Broncos +5 confidence
Jaguars under 38
Ravens under 38
Browns over 38

PlayYourCardsRight:
Falcons -9.5
Raiders -5
Chiefs UNDER 46.5
Saints +2.5
Steelers -14 CONFIDENCE

KMUMF:
Steelers -14
Titans -3.5
Jets +5.5
Eagles -14
Saints +2.5 Confidence

Terapined:
Bears +14
Dolphins +16.5
Bucs +9.5
Ravens -7
Packers +14

EdCollins:
Cardinals +5 Confidence
Packers +14
Bills +10
Bucs + 9.5
Bears +14

SOOPOO:
Bills +10 (confidence)
Saints +2.5
Packers +14
Dolphins +16.5
Bears +14

JPlot:
Jets +5.5
Raiders -5
Colts Under
Falcons Under
49ers +6.5

Odiousgambit:
Panthers (-5.5)
Titans (-3.5)
Jaguars (-5)
Bills (+10)
Saints (+2.5)

Rainman:
packers +14
seahawks -6.5
saints +2.5
raiders -5
texans +7

JOHNNYQ:
Bears (+14)
Dolphins (+16.5)
Bills (+10)
Rams (-2.5)
Packers (+14)

DrZin:
Browns (+8.5)
Colts (+3.5)
Rams (-2.5)
Cardinals (+5)
Broncos (+5)

Gordonm888:
Eagles -14
Bills +10
Colts +3.5
Raiders -5 Confidence
Ravens -7

RisingDough:
Browns+8.5
49ers+6.5
Titans-3.5
Jaguars-5
Packers+14 CONFIDENCE

Wizard:
Bills (+10)
Colts (+3.5) -- confidence
Browns (+8.5)
Jets (+5.5)
Cardinals (+5)

Sparty10k:
Dolphins +16.5
Bills +10
Colts +3.5-confidence
Broncos under43.5
Steelers -14

Beachbumbabs:
Saints UNDER 53.5
Bucs +9.5
Saints +2.5
Jaguars -5
Bills +10 confidence

Miplet:
Browns +8.5
Bills +10
Colts +3.5-confidence
Saints +2.5
Broncos +5

MidwestAP:
Browns +8.5
Bills +10
Falcons UNDER 48.5
Cardinals +5
Ravens -7

Genwyzgy:
Bears +14
Bills +10
Colts OVER 45.5 CONFIDENCE
Rams -2.5
Raiders -5

Romes:
Bengals -8.5
Eagles -14
Patriots -16.5
Chiefs -10
Falcons -9.5 CONFIDENCE

DLW6486:
Buccaneers +9.5
Raiders -5
Panthers -5.5
Jaguars -5
Jaguars OVER 38
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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