FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 7:19:19 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

If he finishes in the top three with a longer shot or two you might get back 3 dollars on a 2 dollar ticket. Hey, 50% return in 2 minutes.....not bad.



Lol, it'll pay more than $3 to show. Big brown paid $4.80...
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 7:25:18 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

That is exactly what I am looking for. Plus rebate on wagering online account. I think I got 3%. It is worth $200 on show CC.



Betting on the favorite to show is usually the worst bet in horse racing. There are so many more fun ways to bet $200 on Derby Day.

If he draws poorly, betting on him to show is a bad idea.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 7:50:32 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Betting on the favorite to show is usually the worst bet in horse racing. There are so many more fun ways to bet $200 on Derby Day.

If he draws poorly, betting on him to show is a bad idea.



You'll go broke betting favorites and trying to beat favorites
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 7:26:38 PM permalink
Can anyone post the past performance lines of California Chrome please. Thanks for the help.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 7:31:59 PM permalink
Just go to equibase.com and type in California Chrome
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 7:32:18 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

You'll go broke betting favorites and trying to beat favorites



Gotta pick your spots.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 8:40:31 PM permalink
I am sorry. I forgot to type in FREE past performance. Thanks
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 9:21:02 PM permalink
It is free.

You type in his name where it says "horse name"

Then you can click on each of his races.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 9:34:56 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

It is free.

You type in his name where it says "horse name" ks anyw

Then you can click on each of his races.

I tried but could not find PAST PERFORMANCE for FREE. But thanks anyway.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 9:51:05 PM permalink
You have to be on the full site, mobile won't work FYI
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 9:54:57 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

You have to be on the full site, mobile won't work FYI

I am using my laptop. I typed in CC. Then the site shows me the stat. but I have to BUY the past performance. There is results but no PP.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:10:10 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Lol, it'll pay more than $3 to show. Big brown paid $4.80...



Your right, it will probably will pay closer to 4......I'm not a show pool bettor like you.....I never look at show pays. You the show parlay dude. Lol
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:13:53 PM permalink
If you click on the results, you'll see the full chart
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:15:42 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Your right, it will probably will pay closer to 4......I'm not a show pool bettor like you.....I never look at show pays. You the show parlay dude. Lol



Lol. Hey, you start with $5 to show and parlay it the whole day - you are in business!

Actually - I'm more of a contest player now. Unless I'm at the track. Then I'll do exactas and doubles.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:42:24 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/californiachrome5044_0.pdf



Am I reading the form right in that he has only been ebaten on the Dirt once and that was when he hoped the start and lost ground?

I'm not one for theatrics but I really cannot see this fella losing IF he travels cross country well!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:43:20 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/californiachrome5044_0.pdf

Thanks.
I dont like the horse going to the front. Better off the pace a bit. If CC will be rated to be off the pace 3-4 lengths, I think it has a chance to win/show. Show is a better proposition to me.
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:57:16 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Thanks.
I dont like the horse going to the front. Better off the pace a bit. If CC will be rated to be off the pace 3-4 lengths, I think it has a chance to win/show. Show is a better proposition to me.



He certainly doesn't HAVE to make the lead, nor has he been asked to gallop on the lead in all of his previous starts. He is a handy type though.

What I particularly like about him is he can quicken from the front. That is a quality I really admire in a thoroughbred.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 24th, 2014 at 12:41:56 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

He certainly doesn't HAVE to make the lead, nor has he been asked to gallop on the lead in all of his previous starts. He is a handy type though.

What I particularly like about him is he can quicken from the front. That is a quality I really admire in a thoroughbred.

What i am afraid is the Derby has a killing pace(rabbit at front) which will be good for the horse coming from behind. I wonder CC has a lot of kick in the stretch.
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
April 24th, 2014 at 12:58:31 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

What i am afraid is the Derby has a killing pace(rabbit at front) which will be good for the horse coming from behind. I wonder CC has a lot of kick in the stretch.



Depends on where they rate him. If he rates on or close to the pace he may struggle to maintain the gallop. If he is rated just off the pace, say 6th or 7th he should be able to kick no worries.

He is a good horse, he has had a good 2 year old base and he has destroyed the opposition the further he has traveled. Like I said, the only thing bothering me slightly is the travel from West to East coast. SOme horses like it, some don't
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 24th, 2014 at 6:48:13 AM permalink
So, I have to get me $200 show money ready.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 24th, 2014 at 7:10:03 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

So, I have to get me $200 show money ready.



Put it on California Chrome if that's who you like.......according to show pool expert FinsRule, Chrome will pay in excess of 4 dollars on a 2 dollar bet. 100% return in 2 minutes. Wait, apparently there is no value in Chrome, so bet somebody that's 5-7 lengths slower to get your value.

If you like Chrome put your 200 on the nose. You have to wear a skirt if you make a show bet.....just kidding.....that's what I've heard:-)
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 24th, 2014 at 7:13:11 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Put it on California Chrome if that's who you like.......according to show pool expert FinsRule, Chrome will pay in excess of 4 dollars on a 2 dollar bet. 100% return in 2 minutes. Wait, apparently there is no value in Chrome, so bet somebody that's 5-7 lengths slower to get your value.

If you like Chrome put your 200 on the nose. You have to wear a skirt if you make a show bet.....just kidding.....that's what I've heard:-)

we will find out in 10 days.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 24th, 2014 at 7:47:06 AM permalink
The great thing about all of these pools is that you can get a pretty good idea of what it'll pay before you make the bet.

For example, at Breeders' in 2010 I saw that Zenyatta's place payout was going to be about as much as her win payout. So I made a sizeable place wager on her (more than $2 TTB) and as it turned out it paid $3.60. Her win would have paid $3.80.

But my guess for CC would be right around $4 if he draws well. He is so much better than the rest that he should be able to show if he doesn't get into a lot of trouble. But horses get into trouble every year...
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 24th, 2014 at 4:49:38 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

we will find out in 10 days.



Put together 50 more bucks and Steve Stevens will will make you whole
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 25th, 2014 at 7:48:04 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Can anyone post the past performance lines of California Chrome please. Thanks for the help.



The PP's tell you what the horse done did not what he's going to do.....:
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 25th, 2014 at 8:11:14 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

The PP's tell you what the horse done did not what he's going to do.....:



I'll give you a bunch of money for a "fp" - Future Performances.
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
April 26th, 2014 at 12:24:59 AM permalink
I usually bet a 7 horse dollar tri box. Its only 210 and its one of the few times I go for tri's each year.

I am hoping that all the hype on Cal chrome keeps up since I will probably throw it out. I viewed 3 of the stakes races he ran, and it seems the horse gets a fast start and stays a couple lengths from the leader....and then in the far turn makes a move and fries the field.

With all the publicity this horse is getting....I am thinking the jockies are well aware of the horse/jockey gameplan. And if I were them, my biggest goal after getting off to a clean start, is to prevent that gameplan from unfolding. Maybe boxing him in, maybe a little bump out of the gate.

This isnt a horse that flys to the front and just keeps going. This horse might find himself surrounded by 5-6 horses midway through the race. Something he is not used to.

In a race of 7 to 10 of the best of these horses..I think chrome wins hands down. But throw in another 10 horses, the best jockeys in ther world, the prestige of the race and the money......there will be some jockeys trying to win the race while at the same time preventing chrome from having a chance. All in a legal way.

This horse now has a target on its back. I dont think it will get a clean trip.

I havent analyzed all the horses yet....and all i need to do is pick the right 3 that comes in at least 3rd....but Wicked Strong seems like it might be of value possibly,,,hopefully at 6-1 or more. And I know gary stevens has a horse....and stevens isnt at this stage of carreer where he is semi retired and comes out to ride in a race just to come in 12th. So I have to give that horse a look.

I agree Cal Chrome is a monster. Very impressive. Post position will be interesting this wed.
kenarman
kenarman
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 966
Joined: Nov 22, 2009
April 26th, 2014 at 8:35:53 AM permalink
I wonder if anyone got a bet down on CC at the Wynn last year. He started out at 300 to 1 on their futures. Given how close California is probably a few took a flyer. No one in the East would have even known the horse.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 26th, 2014 at 9:03:17 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

I usually bet a 7 horse dollar tri box. Its only 210 and its one of the few times I go for tri's each year.

I am hoping that all the hype on Cal chrome keeps up since I will probably throw it out. I viewed 3 of the stakes races he ran, and it seems the horse gets a fast start and stays a couple lengths from the leader....and then in the far turn makes a move and fries the field.

With all the publicity this horse is getting....I am thinking the jockies are well aware of the horse/jockey gameplan. And if I were them, my biggest goal after getting off to a clean start, is to prevent that gameplan from unfolding. Maybe boxing him in, maybe a little bump out of the gate.

This isnt a horse that flys to the front and just keeps going. This horse might find himself surrounded by 5-6 horses midway through the race. Something he is not used to.

In a race of 7 to 10 of the best of these horses..I think chrome wins hands down. But throw in another 10 horses, the best jockeys in ther world, the prestige of the race and the money......there will be some jockeys trying to win the race while at the same time preventing chrome from having a chance. All in a legal way.

This horse now has a target on its back. I dont think it will get a clean trip.

I havent analyzed all the horses yet....and all i need to do is pick the right 3 that comes in at least 3rd....but Wicked Strong seems like it might be of value possibly,,,hopefully at 6-1 or more. And I know gary stevens has a horse....and stevens isnt at this stage of carreer where he is semi retired and comes out to ride in a race just to come in 12th. So I have to give that horse a look.

I agree Cal Chrome is a monster. Very impressive. Post position will be interesting this wed.



Fairly good analysis I must say, LarryS, except for your "value" take......

I'm afraid Chrome will fall victim to the "curse of the coverage".

I'll be there for Oaks and Derby.
Each day is better than the next
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
April 26th, 2014 at 9:45:27 AM permalink
the pp's have all the clues to the puzzle. Any serious player must have them. In a race like the derby it is more of a guessing game.
get second you pig
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 26th, 2014 at 11:02:24 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

the pp's have all the clues to the puzzle. Any serious player must have them. In a race like the derby it is more of a guessing game.



The PP's create the argument. Similar to the towers in Roulette and the Bac screen
Each day is better than the next
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
April 26th, 2014 at 2:41:05 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Fairly good analysis I must say, LarryS, except for your "value" take......

I'm afraid Chrome will fall victim to the "curse of the coverage".

I'll be there for Oaks and Derby.



I didnt place any value on chrome
Sabretom2
Sabretom2
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 718
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
April 26th, 2014 at 2:52:03 PM permalink
Can Chrome go off at better than even money?
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1152
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
April 26th, 2014 at 4:10:17 PM permalink
Candy Boy had a good work today and Stevens seemed confident afterward. I think he was a short horse in the SA Derby and will definitely move forward and be in the hunt down the stretch.
sodawater
sodawater
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Joined: May 14, 2012
April 26th, 2014 at 4:24:50 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

I didnt place any value on chrome



there might not be any value on betting chrome, but you might as well throw him into some of your trifectas, because it's going to take an act of god to keep that horse out of the money the way he is running.
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
April 26th, 2014 at 6:02:07 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

there might not be any value on betting chrome, but you might as well throw him into some of your trifectas, because it's going to take an act of god to keep that horse out of the money the way he is running.



really?m you say that without knowing post positions. What if he is in the 20 hole. Its conceivible that he expends alot of time and energy getting close to the rail before the first turn, or gets hung out 4 wide on the first turn...and has nothing left in the stretch.

I agree with previous poster...post positions are needed before we can make judgements
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 26th, 2014 at 6:19:25 PM permalink
When will the posts be drawn???
JW17
JW17
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 344
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
April 26th, 2014 at 8:51:50 PM permalink
Headed to LV for the Oaks Derby next Thursday!
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
April 26th, 2014 at 8:54:53 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

The PP's create the argument. Similar to the towers in Roulette and the Bac screen




Not sure how you can compare horseracing where there are tons of professional players to bacc and roulette but i guess if you believe that go ahead.
get second you pig
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 26th, 2014 at 10:33:31 PM permalink
I don't know why you wouldn't throw Chrome somewhere in your trifecta. You'd kick yourself big time if it goes 25-1, 25-1, Chrome, and you had the first two.

I've pretty much settled on my Top 4:

1) California Chrome
2) Hoppertunity
3) Wicked Strong
4) Ride on Curlin

I'm going to put those 4 in all of my multi-race and exotic bets. In the back end of my trifectas, and maybe on a doubles or Pick-3 with Untapable I will also put:

5) Wildcat Red
6) Vicar's In Trouble
7) Candy Boy
8) General A Rod
9) Dance with Fate

If one of those draw bad I guess I can include a Pletcher horse in there

10) Danza
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
April 26th, 2014 at 11:12:51 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

When will the posts be drawn???



In past years the wed before

usually televised.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
April 26th, 2014 at 11:14:13 PM permalink
you guys should include the two pace horses in the wood....they went a long way in good time on a tiring track.
get second you pig
LarryS
LarryS
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 1410
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
April 26th, 2014 at 11:27:49 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I don't know why you wouldn't throw Chrome somewhere in your trifecta. You'd kick yourself big time if it goes 25-1, 25-1, Chrome, and you had the first two.

I've pretty much settled on my Top 4:

1) California Chrome
2) Hoppertunity
3) Wicked Strong
4) Ride on Curlin

I'm going to put those 4 in all of my multi-race and exotic bets. In the back end of my trifectas, and maybe on a doubles or Pick-3 with Untapable I will also put:

5) Wildcat Red
6) Vicar's In Trouble
7) Candy Boy
8) General A Rod
9) Dance with Fate

If one of those draw bad I guess I can include a Pletcher horse in there

10) Danza



If chrome is not in pp 6-14....i wont even consider.
He is not the speed of speed. He sits behind the speed. Except in a 20 horse field he will have alot of company and alot of attention from other jockeys.
Its just my opinion. I know there have been very well touted horses like smarty jones and big brown in the past that held to form. It happens that the cream rises to the top. With good pp chrome can win of course...i will see and post my trifecta fri
sodawater
sodawater
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Joined: May 14, 2012
April 27th, 2014 at 1:17:31 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

If chrome is not in pp 6-14....i wont even consider.
know there have been very well touted horses like smarty jones and big brown in the past that held to form. It happens that the cream rises to the top. With good pp chrome can win of course...i will see and post my trifecta fri



I seem to recall Big Brown winning the 2008 Derby from post position #20 -- not exactly a favorable PP. And California Chrome looks better going into the race than even Big Brown did.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 27th, 2014 at 8:21:48 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

the pp's have all the clues to the puzzle. Any serious player must have them. In a race like the derby it is more of a guessing game.



Really, PP's have all the clues. As you would say......."if you believe that go ahead."
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 27th, 2014 at 8:33:15 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

I seem to recall Big Brown winning the 2008 Derby from post position #20 -- not exactly a favorable PP. And California Chrome looks better going into the race than even Big Brown did.



When looking at the history of the Derby the 20 horse field is relatively new. No statistical significance can be assigned to post position. Not nearly enough data.

The horse can get a bad or good trip out of any hole.
Each day is better than the next
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 6405
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
April 27th, 2014 at 9:26:23 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

Quote: speedycrap

When will the posts be drawn???

In past years the wed before

usually televised.


Wednesday, 5-6 PM Eastern, on NBC Sports Network
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 999
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
April 27th, 2014 at 9:28:33 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Really, PP's have all the clues. As you would say......."if you believe that go ahead."




hundreds of professional players believe it
get second you pig
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 27th, 2014 at 10:29:12 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

hundreds of professional players believe it



Look, PP's are just that, past performances. Handicappers interpret the PP's differently. I'll say it again, the PP's are the basis of the argument which is horse racing. Without PP's handles would decrease dramatically. The PP's reflect what "the horse done did not what it's going to do"

Professionals rely on feel, instinct and info that most players don't have access to.....they also know how to configure their bets with large bankrolls that give them leverage.
Each day is better than the next
  • Jump to: