LarryS
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April 27th, 2014 at 3:55:36 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Look, PP's are just that, past performances. Handicappers interpret the PP's differently. I'll say it again, the PP's are the basis of the argument which is horse racing. Without PP's handles would decrease dramatically. The PP's reflect what "the horse done did not what it's going to do"

Professionals rely on feel, instinct and info that most players don't have access to.....they also know how to configure their bets with large bankrolls that give them leverage.



If horses just sprnted in a straight lineto the finish line like a 100 yard dash, then pp would mean little.

But a horse/jockey has to use up energy and time negotiating traffic going sideways toward the rail to start the race. And once they do that there is a question wheter they will be hung out 4 wide on the first turn, moving over greater distance and exerting more energy.

So in ths case the question can be posed....will the #20 horse be able to overcome the time and energy expense of going from his PP to the rail and still finish the race with the best time. Yes Big Brown did it. He had a dream trip for that post. He was ble to get near the front easily....no real speed to his immediate left to hinder him.

the race is about running with the best time....not beating another horse. If you run the best time tou WILL beat the other horses by default....but I look at the times. And analyze if I think the PP position will add enough time and energy expense to increase the time to the point where others will beat that time.

In a 20 horse field there is so much going on where you just dont know how a horse will handle the crowd, the 19 other horses, getting dirt kicked in its face, getting bumped(which appens often just out of the gate), getting boxed in.

In a dream trip chrome wins in my opinion. In a 10 horse field chrome wins. In a 20 horse field, running on dirt ratherthan synthetic, the crowd, ..there are too many questions for me...and if you add a horrible pp....thats another question.

DRF usually posts a free PP for the derby and oaks....wed eve or thur after the pp are selected for those looking. You can get it early but usually in alphabetical order which makes handicapping using PP a little harder but doable none the less
treetopbuddy
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April 27th, 2014 at 4:39:51 PM permalink
If Chrome runs to his pedigree he finishes dead last. Born a very cheap horse and three years later the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Great story if he manages to pull it off....
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
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April 27th, 2014 at 6:17:03 PM permalink
Based on latest workouts...

#1 - California Chrome
#2 - Hoppertunity
#3 - Wicked Strong
#4 - Ride on Curlin
#5 - General A Rod
#6 - Vicar's In Trouble
#7 - Danza
#8 - Candy Boy
#9 - Intense Holiday
#10 - Dance With Fate
#11 - Medal Count
#12 - Samraat
#13 - Wildcat Red
#14 - Commanding Curve
#15 - Chitu
#16 - Tapiture
#17 - Uncle Sigh
#18 - Harry's Holiday
#19 - Vinceremos
#20 - We Miss Artie
Tomspur
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April 27th, 2014 at 6:39:39 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

If Chrome runs to his pedigree he finishes dead last. Born a very cheap horse and three years later the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Great story if he manages to pull it off....



Horses don't run on paper, they run on dirt :)

It is going to be an interesting week leading up to the Derby. First the final field and Post Positions then the ML to see if there is any "value" (just for TTB :) )

I am still in the camp of CC but I feel Hopportunity won't be beaten as far as he was in the SA Derby. Baffert should have left plenty meat on the bone in that run and I'm certain he will strip much fitter.

Can the West coast shippers dominate? Not sure that has ever happened, has it?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
LarryS
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April 27th, 2014 at 9:35:28 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Horses don't run on paper, they run on dirt :)

It is going to be an interesting week leading up to the Derby. First the final field and Post Positions then the ML to see if there is any "value" (just for TTB :) )

I am still in the camp of CC but I feel Hopportunity won't be beaten as far as he was in the SA Derby. Baffert should have left plenty meat on the bone in that run and I'm certain he will strip much fitter.

Can the West coast shippers dominate? Not sure that has ever happened, has it?




I agree that the race is run on dirt. But lets face it, at this age, horses are still developing. In the derby, some horses may regress, some have already peaked while others are using this time to train and develope and run an unexpected best race. Then you add the uncertainty of how these very young horses will handle a 20 horse field with the number of difficulties it presents. How horses that never raced at CD will take to the surface. In a big field, more need for jockey split second decisions and therefore more chance for jockey error. You add all that up and "the paper" becomes less and less reliable.

The jockey of chrome won the derby and preakness with War Emblem. And won me a ton of money on the belmont when his horse stumbled in the Belmont and didnt make the trifecta which payed over 9k for 1 dollar tri.

Showing, even the best jockeys in a smaller field can have a bad ride. 20 horse fields make it even nore trecherous.

Yes Big brown had post position going against it and still won...but there are always the Funny Cides or mIne that bird that win as well unexpectedly.

thats why I love this race....its unpredictable and alot of money can be made.
LarryS
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April 27th, 2014 at 9:55:09 PM permalink
Also in one analysis I read it was pointed out that chrome hasnt been directly in back of another horse since his last loss. So getting dirt kicked into his face may not be a sensation he is used to.

Still when looking at the other prospects...there isnt much to get excited about. But I will try.
FinsRule
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April 27th, 2014 at 10:22:38 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Can the West coast shippers dominate? Not sure that has ever happened, has it?



2012?
Tomspur
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April 27th, 2014 at 10:58:51 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

2012?



Kinda exactly like that yes :)

This is however the exception not the norm right?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Boz
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April 28th, 2014 at 4:23:58 AM permalink
Admitting I didn't read through this entire thread, this might have been posted, but I just found it. Talk about increasing the house odds!!


http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-downs-increases-takeout-rates
1arrowheaddr
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April 28th, 2014 at 6:35:20 AM permalink
Sales are down. Raise prices!
FinsRule
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April 28th, 2014 at 6:39:45 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Admitting I didn't read through this entire thread, this might have been posted, but I just found it. Talk about increasing the house odds!!


http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-downs-increases-takeout-rates



It's maddening.
Sabretom2
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April 28th, 2014 at 6:45:04 AM permalink
Does money bet away from the track have anything to do with the numbers on the tote board?
LarryS
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April 28th, 2014 at 8:45:45 AM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Does money bet away from the track have anything to do with the numbers on the tote board?



those plACES THAT HAVE "PARAMUTUAL" betting is in the main pool and pays out the money to the winners that is on the toteboard payouts.
LarryS
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Sabretom2
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April 28th, 2014 at 2:43:27 PM permalink
Churchill Downs and racebooks in Las Vegas have so far failed to reach a simulcasting deal, potentially jeopardizing the ability of the racebooks to offer parimutuel wagering on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, the most popular race in the United States, according to Nevada gambling officials. -DRF
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 5:40:00 PM permalink
Another thing to worry about now appears to be the weather. I know sometimes there is a sealed track at the time of the Derby but I wonder how that will affect CC?

I thought I saw in one of his races that he didn't like the slop?

Can someone corroborate or refute please.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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April 28th, 2014 at 6:00:32 PM permalink
Chrome backed down the ramp when unloading at Churchill Downs. A bad omen?
Each day is better than the next
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 6:14:28 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Chrome backed down the ramp when unloading at Churchill Downs. A bad omen?



Do you know if and when he will work at Churchill?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
speedycrap
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April 28th, 2014 at 6:24:59 PM permalink
I just had a quick look at the past performance of the Derby field.I prefer Wicked Strong over CC.
Tomspur,are you interested in betting with me? $10, I will take Wicked Strong finishing in front of CC.
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 6:34:17 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I just had a quick look at the past performance of the Derby field.I prefer Wicked Strong over CC.
Tomspur,are you interested in betting with me? $10, I will take Wicked Strong finishing in front of CC.



I have too many bets going on at the moment :)

I'm on a hiding to nothing with you already even though the ball season is still pretty long :)

I don't know who I like now for the Derby!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
speedycrap
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April 28th, 2014 at 7:06:25 PM permalink
Let me know when you are ready. I like Wicked Strong a bit to show.
JW17
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April 28th, 2014 at 7:09:04 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Churchill Downs and racebooks in Las Vegas have so far failed to reach a simulcasting deal, potentially jeopardizing the ability of the racebooks to offer parimutuel wagering on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, the most popular race in the United States, according to Nevada gambling officials. -DRF



Please tell me this is a joke. I am going to LV this weekend for one reason.......
FinsRule
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April 28th, 2014 at 7:40:39 PM permalink
It'll be resolved for the Derby.

Maybe not the Oaks...
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 8:25:33 PM permalink
I'm liking Danza more and more. He put up some good work and I think he is getting better the more he matures.

I know Pletcher doesn't have a stellar record in the Derby but he has almost always got a horse that is in the top 3 or 4 betting wise.

I think Danza could be a nice price and I will be putting some E/W money on him methinks.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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April 28th, 2014 at 9:21:33 PM permalink
Danza will be in my trifecta in the 2nd or 3rd spot.
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 9:24:09 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Danza will be in my trifecta in the 2nd or 3rd spot.



Rather box your selections :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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April 28th, 2014 at 9:56:40 PM permalink
Like you said - Pletcher doesn't win.
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 10:07:59 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Like you said - Pletcher doesn't win.



Well that isn't entirely true, he has won, once, just not as reglarly as maybe we want him to? The problem is I think he sometimes tries to get too many horses to qualify instead of concentrating on the quality. He will more than likely have 4 animals competing this time around. Even thoguh I think Johnny V will ride Intense Holiday, I think Danza has more scope to improve.

Leave him out at your peril :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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April 28th, 2014 at 10:23:38 PM permalink
I bet Pletcher in months Feb - Apr only.

Comes in handy when horses like Verrazano come around.

I do like Intense Holiday and Danza to pick up the pieces. But I think a horse on or near the lead wins.
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 10:34:54 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I bet Pletcher in months Feb - Apr only.

Comes in handy when horses like Verrazano come around.

I do like Intense Holiday and Danza to pick up the pieces. But I think a horse on or near the lead wins.



Seems to fit Danza's profile quite neatly. He was handy in his previous win and shot through down the inside if memory serves.

Anyway, I have not yet made my mind up. Still need to see the final works before the big one to see who likes the surface and then also take the weather into account with some selections.

My concern with Danza is he is built like a sprinter AND he has a sprinters pedigree.....just a little niggle especially if the track comes up soft!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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April 28th, 2014 at 10:38:27 PM permalink
I think the works are done for the most part. Weather is supposed to be perfect.
Tomspur
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April 28th, 2014 at 10:43:40 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I think the works are done for the most part. Weather is supposed to be perfect.



I should have said, half pace work or whatever as I only meant I wanted to see how the horses run over the surface.

I checked the weather and for now it seems like good weather with a possible shower in the PM. About 60 degrees?

Will wait for the draw come Wednesday
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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April 29th, 2014 at 5:36:58 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Do you know if and when he will work at Churchill?



No works of course but they will gallop/jog him several times leading up to race.

He was really spooked coming off van.......
Each day is better than the next
Boz
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April 29th, 2014 at 5:43:25 AM permalink
Just for kicks, what is everyone's thoughts on what CC goes off at in the Win column? I am thinking right about 3/2 based on the hype.
treetopbuddy
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April 29th, 2014 at 6:00:34 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Just for kicks, what is everyone's thoughts on what CC goes off at in the Win column? I am thinking right about 3/2 based on the hype.



Yeah, less than 2-1. 9/5 maybe 7/5?

His speed figures tower over everybody in the race. Bellamy Road ran a 117 Beyers speed fig in the Wood Memorial back in 2005. He went off as big fav, missed the break, got lots of dirt in face and finished well back.

Something tells me Chrome is special which means he won't run a lick.
Each day is better than the next
sodawater
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April 29th, 2014 at 12:29:42 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Just for kicks, what is everyone's thoughts on what CC goes off at in the Win column? I am thinking right about 3/2 based on the hype.



7/2
Tomspur
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April 29th, 2014 at 5:16:37 PM permalink
Currently on the English markets the best you can get about CC is 5/2. He is 9/4 with most shops.
Personally I think this is way too short and the value overseas at least for me lies with Hoppertunity at 14/1. I don't think it opens up that price on the ML. Wicked strong is 2nd choice at 7's and Danza is at 8's.

Intense Holiday surprisingly is at 25's at some shops.....Perhaps they never saw his work on Sunday?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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April 29th, 2014 at 5:21:56 PM permalink
I'll guess 9/5.
Sabretom2
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April 29th, 2014 at 5:48:09 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'll guess 9/5.



Me too.
Buzzard
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April 29th, 2014 at 7:21:35 PM permalink
To you beat me to it again Hoppertuity has great connections. Only 5 starts so room to improve Taking nothing away from chrome but just as he made his winning move opportunity was forced to steady awaiting room on the turn. He stepped out side but by then chromed 5length lead. Opportunity held those 5. If opportunity gets bet luck it might be a different result.g
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Tomspur
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April 29th, 2014 at 7:25:48 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

To you beat me to it again Hoppertuity has great connections. Only 5 starts so room to improve Taking nothing away from chrome but just as he made his winning move opportunity was forced to steady awaiting room on the turn. He stepped out side but by then chromed 5length lead. Opportunity held those 5. If opportunity gets bet luck it might be a different result.g



I sure think he is the value, no doubt especially at the current English odds. Those will change obviously tomorrow with the announcement of the official ML. No way Hoppertunity opens up 14/1.......

This is one tough sucker to analyze.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
HowMany
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April 29th, 2014 at 7:34:24 PM permalink
I like Candy Boy. Looks like he's sitting on a big race.

But forget that, I'm just gonna call Steve Stevens and bet whatever he says.

Word.
Tomspur
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April 29th, 2014 at 7:46:15 PM permalink
Untapable drew the outside trap at 13 and has been installed the 4/5 ML fav. FRom that draw she will have to be a super filly. Having said that I don't know much about her opposition.

Still, with that draw, I'm not sure we aren't looking at a bit of a result coming here......
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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April 30th, 2014 at 4:18:49 PM permalink
Martin and Coburn (regular Joes), owners of Chrome, turned down 6 million for horse and would retain 49% interest. Offer came from Middle East.

Martin and Coburn bought the dam of Chrome for 8 thousand dollars. They ran her twice. She finished last in both races. They considered selling her for a 1000 dollars or just giving her away.

Fast forward five years and the owners have been offered 750,000 for dam plus an additional 250,000 for every triple race he wins. They turned down that offer.

Two full sisters to Chrome on the ground bred to the modest Lucky Pulpit. If reasonably correct, they will bring 500,000 plus at the sales contingent on what Chrome does.

Very rarely do horses with his pedigree rise to the highest levels of horse racing.

The last time a California bred won the Derby was 1962, Decidely.

This horse is sticking it to the Bluebloods and Kentucky Hardboots. Love it.

Great story if he can win.....
Each day is better than the next
ThatDonGuy
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April 30th, 2014 at 4:54:22 PM permalink
Nothing about the post positions?

1 - Vicar's In Trouble
2 - Harry's Holiday
3 - Uncle Sigh
4 - Danza
5 - California Chrome
6 - Samraat
7 - We Miss Artie
8 - General A Rod
9 - Vinceremos
10 - Wildcat Red
11 - Hoppertunity
12 - Dance With Fate
13 - Chitu
14 - Medal Count
15 - Tapiture
16 - Intense Holiday
17 - Commanding Curve
18 - Candy Boy
19 - Ride On Curlin
20 - Wicked Strong
Also Eligible - Pablo Del Monte
treetopbuddy
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April 30th, 2014 at 5:03:43 PM permalink
The post doesn't make the horse, the horse makes the post.
Each day is better than the next
Sabretom2
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April 30th, 2014 at 5:09:04 PM permalink
Coming out of 5 CC will be favored. 5/2 looks like a bargain. I just don't see wicked strong making much noise from 20.
Sabretom2
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April 30th, 2014 at 5:10:29 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

The post doesn't make the horse, the horse makes the post.



WTF does that mean?
Buzzard
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April 30th, 2014 at 5:10:42 PM permalink
5/2 is no bargain on a horse that is even money not to finish 1,2,3.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
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April 30th, 2014 at 5:22:37 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

WTF does that mean?



WTF.......is that too hard to understand? It means that PP's are not that important.
Each day is better than the next
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