Sabretom2
Sabretom2
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 718
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
April 30th, 2014 at 5:27:37 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

WTF.......is that too hard to understand? Sleep on it Tex



Snappy non answer. Oh well, maybe someone else knows.
Boz
Boz
  • Threads: 155
  • Posts: 5701
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
April 30th, 2014 at 5:40:17 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

5/2 is no bargain on a horse that is even money not to finish 1,2,3.



What are you willing to book? I will take even money on 1-2-3 all day with you.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
April 30th, 2014 at 5:44:35 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Snappy non answer. Oh well, maybe someone else knows.



It means that PP's are not that important......got it?
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
April 30th, 2014 at 6:43:19 PM permalink
What a waste for Wicked Strong. Post 20. SIGHHHHHHHH
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
April 30th, 2014 at 6:45:19 PM permalink
WTF means Welcome To Fruita. Theres a thread here somewhere about the old farts on city council who actually printed bumper stickers.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
April 30th, 2014 at 6:55:17 PM permalink
i'm going to box Hoppertunity and CC for the Exacta, perhaps Candy boy to run on, perhaps Wicked Strong, Danza or Intense holiday to complete the tri/super.

I think Hoppertunity is too skinny at 6/1. I took some 14's in south Africa two days ago. Thought that was an overlay.

Those be my early picks
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
April 30th, 2014 at 6:58:08 PM permalink
Big Brown went off 2 to 1 in 2008 Last favorite to hit the board. He paid $4.80 to show.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
April 30th, 2014 at 7:02:03 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

What are you willing to book? I will take even money on 1-2-3 all day with you.




Big Brown was undefeated going into the Derby. If I took you action, I would just lay it off. Don't get too excited These are 3 year old going this far first time, unbelievable crowd noise. A couple horses will leave their race in the paddock.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1153
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
April 30th, 2014 at 7:37:13 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Big Brown went off 2 to 1 in 2008 Last favorite to hit the board. He paid $4.80 to show.



Orb was the favorite last year and won
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
April 30th, 2014 at 9:25:34 PM permalink
Rob was over 5 to 1. He paid 6.40 to show. Big Brown was 2 to 1 on the tote board. Like I said chrome is not even money to be 1,2 or 3. If anyone thinks so bet him to show. Just be prepared to tear up your ticket.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 30th, 2014 at 11:13:45 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

What are you willing to book? I will take even money on 1-2-3 all day with you.



I think his show price will be $4 minimum. I suppose it could be like $3.80 maybe. But I'd go to the regular windows, not the buzzard windows on CC.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
April 30th, 2014 at 11:17:56 PM permalink
I have completed my handicapping. I'm making just over $200 worth of bets. I suppose me posting them wouldn't be the worst thing ever. Here goes:

Oaks / Derby DD - $2 - 11, 13 / 4, 5, 10, 11, 19 = $20

Oaks / Derby DD - $1 - 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 / 4, 5, 10, 11, 19 = $30

Oaks / Woodford / Derby P3 - $.50 - 13 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 / 4, 5, 10, 11 = $12

Oaks / Woodford / Derby P3 - $.50 - 7, 11, 13 / 1, 5, 10 / 1, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11, 16, 19 = $36

Derby Trifecta - $.50 - 5 / 1, 4, 8, 10, 11, 16, 18, 19, 20 / 1, 4, 8, 10, 11, 16, 18, 19, 20 = $36

Derby Trifecta - $.50 - 4, 10, 11 / 4, 5, 10, 11, 19 / 1, 4, 8, 10, 11, 16, 18, 19, 20 = $48

Derby Show - $20 Show - 11 = $20

Sorry there are no names. You'll have to look it up if you care to.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
May 1st, 2014 at 6:02:47 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

What a waste for Wicked Strong. Post 20. SIGHHHHHHHH



If I'm not mistaken, four horses have won from the auxiliary gate in the last six years. Some horses run much better without the outside pressure. I wouldn't worry about post 20.

Example: Your horse draws the 8 hole. Gate opens the nine ducks left and the 7 ducks right out of the gate. The 8 is knocked sideways. Was the 8 hole a good draw......? No.

Get on Chrome! The back story is great. Key him in your exactas. Bet him on the nose for a 150-180% return in two minutes. This horse and the connections are way out on the tails of the bell curve.
Each day is better than the next
JW17
JW17
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 344
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
May 1st, 2014 at 7:14:51 AM permalink
Hoppertunity = gone
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 6408
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
May 1st, 2014 at 7:23:18 AM permalink
Quote: JW17

Hoppertunity = gone


If I read the Daily Racing Form report right, the horses outside of him all move in one (I assume the horses' numbers will change as well, which is probably why there's a deadline for this sort of thing - obviously they can't change the numbers once they start taking bets at the track), and if Pablo del Monte now runs, he'll start in the 20 spot.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 548
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
May 1st, 2014 at 2:44:31 PM permalink
All this CC hype reminds me of Goldencents last year. Remember how he finished the derby. There's obviously some differences with CC, running in mud certainly didn't help Goldencents either, but I don't think the Santa Anita boys like the Churchill surface all that much. Having said that CC will win by 10 lengths now. LOL.

But, I think I like WS for the race. I think the 20 PP actually helps him. It will force Rajiv to keep him off the pace a little bit more than he would have, which I think will be good. He also gets an easy trip, he should be able to drop right into his position without any problems. Just follow Gary right down there.

Samraat, is another one that I like, but we'll see, I won't make any bets until I see the horses on Saturday.

I also heard Hoppertunity scratched.

Haven't looked through the Oaks yet, Untapable with Rosie sounds like a lock.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
May 1st, 2014 at 3:40:30 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

Hoppertunity = gone



The 'Curse of Apollo' lives on with the scratch of Hoppertunity. Apollo is the only horse to win Derby that didn't race as a two year old. 1882 was the year Apollo won.

Wicked Strong, Saamrat and Chrome have the top Timeform numbers. I prefer using Beyers speed figs but I lose my ass.... Tapiture won a graded stakes at Churchill......maybe the horse for the course?
Each day is better than the next
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11892
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
May 1st, 2014 at 3:52:47 PM permalink
Every year I just guess on one horse somewhere in the 10:1 to 20:1 range. This year my choice is to bet $20 on Wildcat Red across the board.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 548
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
May 1st, 2014 at 4:14:44 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Tapiture won a graded stakes at Churchill......maybe the horse for the course?



Maybe, but then I'd have to root for an Asmussen horse. Plus, I don't think he'll be able to juice the horse up this year. LOL
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1153
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
May 1st, 2014 at 4:15:05 PM permalink
I keep recalling 1986 when Ferdinand (third in the Santa Anita derby to the Cal-bred Snow Chief who went off as the derby favorite) won at 17-1. Hoping the same happens again as my money is on Candy Boy. I can't bring myself to bet on a Cal-bred favored in the derby.
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
May 1st, 2014 at 5:14:17 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

I keep recalling 1986 when Ferdinand (third in the Santa Anita derby to the Cal-bred Snow Chief who went off as the derby favorite) won at 17-1. Hoping the same happens again as my money is on Candy Boy. I can't bring myself to bet on a Cal-bred favored in the derby.



But that doesn't mean it cannot win :)

I think CC, from that draw now with who I thought was his main adversary being scratched, will surely win and anything above 2/1 at racetime should be jumped upon.

This just seems like a Cinderella story waiting to happen to me. Not only is he the fastest horse in the race but he has what everyone seems to enjoy these days, a nice, sweet, cuddly backstory.

I think Candy Boy will be running on so I'm going the 5 on top with WS, Candy Boy and Danza to complete the tri.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
May 1st, 2014 at 6:03:34 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Maybe, but then I'd have to root for an Asmussen horse. Plus, I don't think he'll be able to juice the horse up this year. LOL



Horse racing is short on great stories so Asmussen will win the race. That's horse racing. Post race ceremonies will be uncomfortable for sure. If Tapiture were to win, it be the most unpopular win since Birdstone beat Smarty Jones in the Belmont orr when Blame beat Zenyatta in the BC Classic.
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 1st, 2014 at 7:33:09 PM permalink
I don't think Tapiture wins. I think Untapable winning will be uncomfortable enough.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 1st, 2014 at 7:33:58 PM permalink
Hoppertunity scratching has pretty much caused me to rethink everything. I don't like Wicked Strong, I do like Wildcat Red and Danza. As for closers, I think Intense Holiday is the best one.
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
May 1st, 2014 at 7:49:11 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Hoppertunity scratching has pretty much caused me to rethink everything. I don't like Wicked Strong, I do like Wildcat Red and Danza. As for closers, I think Intense Holiday is the best one.



And he put up a bullet work last Sunday so he should be spot on (Intense Holiday).

I am rethinking untapable in the Oaks. I think perhaps Rosalind will run her close.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 6:27:23 AM permalink
I'm not sure I'd pin my hopes on a bullet work. If you knew how works are timed and what they really mean, you would probably be more inclined to take them with a grain of salt. Having said that, Intense Holiday wins by daylight now that I'd discounted the work. Horse racing.....the great argument
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 6:38:17 AM permalink
Ok, so lets get down to the pick for the Derby !!!!!!!!!!!
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 6:55:19 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Ok, so lets get down to the pick for the Derby !!!!!!!!!!!



Value players (hehe) won't bet on the fastest horse in the race, California Chrome. The fastest horse doesn't always win but Chrome's turn of foot coming down the lane is extremely impressive. If he's feeling OK, takes to the track and get's a decent trip, he'll win. Wait, that's three ifs.......I've picked one Derby winner....what do I know?
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 11:44:05 AM permalink
Just put $100 on Untapable(13) to PLACE.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 2nd, 2014 at 1:53:52 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Just put $100 on Untapable(13) to PLACE.



I like it.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 2nd, 2014 at 2:43:09 PM permalink
Only 21% in the place pool on Untapable. The place could pay more than the win...
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 3:16:08 PM permalink
No race....nice ride by Rosie!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 3:42:01 PM permalink
Churchill Down average daily trackside handle is below$1.2 million. So in their infinite wisdom, they raised the take for WPS from 16% to 17.5% and exotics from 19% to 22% Less customers coming to the track, raise your prices. BRILLIANT
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 3:46:33 PM permalink
Oh, and Executive Compensation at Churchhill Downs Inc , since last year is up a mere 240.7%. The suffering appears to not be limited to just the bettors.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 3:48:43 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Churchill Down average daily trackside handle is below$1.2 million. So in their infinite wisdom, they raised the take for WPS from 16% to 17.5% and exotics from 19% to 22% Less customers coming to the track, raise your prices. BRILLIANT



Churchill Downs as a stand alone property loses money. It's their Racino properties that keep the show going.
Each day is better than the next
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 3:54:43 PM permalink
I know treetop. Most dog and horse race tracks that have a racino, got that right by proposing to protect the poor horse owners and farms. Now they are doing their best to phase out the horses and dogs. Talk about customer service. Race tracks always treated the bettors as chumps. Imagine having a business for over 100 years and as soon as a competing business opens up down the road, you lose 90% of your customers.
Maryland Jockey Club owns the legislature and the casinos are forced to support Pimlico. Pimlico would have sold the property years ago, but it is in a terrible neighborhood.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 4:10:39 PM permalink
I will put my money on Danza, Ran a bang up second in Saratoga Special in only his 2nd race. Then laid off 7 months for Allowance tuneup before winning Grade 1 Arkansas Derby bu 4+lengths.
Only 4 lifetime races and G1 win last time out.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 4:45:44 PM permalink
Made $60 on my $100 PLACE bet on Untapable. Nice return in 2 minutes.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 2nd, 2014 at 4:46:45 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Churchill Downs as a stand alone property loses money. It's their Racino properties that keep the show going.



There is no way Churchill Downs loses money if you count the Derby. Besides the Derby I'm sure they do lose money.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 4:49:10 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

There is no way Churchill Downs loses money if you count the Derby. Besides the Derby I'm sure they do lose money.



OK boss, just what I heard. WTFever
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 2nd, 2014 at 5:18:44 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

OK boss, just what I heard. WTFever



I used to work for them.
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 876
Joined: Apr 2, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 6:48:38 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Only 21% in the place pool on Untapable. The place could pay more than the win...



How can you tell how much the pool is?
98Clubs
98Clubs
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 1728
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
May 2nd, 2014 at 7:12:33 PM permalink
20 across on Wildcat Red #10 on your program.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 2nd, 2014 at 7:44:13 PM permalink
On your ADW you can see. It went up before they went off, but the place and show on Untapable still were way too high. Easy money.
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1310
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
May 2nd, 2014 at 8:38:20 PM permalink
I think I will parlay my Oaks winning ($60) into CC SHOW bet.
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 876
Joined: Apr 2, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 9:02:47 PM permalink
I think I'm going with an exacta of CC w/ all. $2 Exacta paid over $900 last year even with the favorite winning. I'll probably do $100 on show for CC expecting to approximately double that.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 2nd, 2014 at 9:38:03 PM permalink
The money is pouring away from CC. I think he is a win or not show up horse. So I'd like an exacta/all more than a show bet.

Everyone missed their chance for a good show bet today on Untapable.
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 876
Joined: Apr 2, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 10:05:18 PM permalink
How can you tell the money is pouring away from CC? You mentioned ADW earlier but I don't know what that means.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 2nd, 2014 at 10:28:43 PM permalink
ADW is Advance Deposit Wagering - Online Wagering.

CC odds have gone up to 3-1. This is off of a 5/2 morning line and with Hoppertunity (the 2nd choice scratched). I'm still guessing it goes down to 9-5 though. It just seems like I'm hearing more people than I thought who are betting against.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
May 2nd, 2014 at 10:41:59 PM permalink
Best bets looking at odds 10x, 15x+ to win?
I am a robot.
  • Jump to: