sodawater
sodawater
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May 2nd, 2014 at 11:22:29 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Best bets looking at odds 10x, 15x+ to win?



Candy Boy.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
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May 3rd, 2014 at 1:47:05 AM permalink
I passed on the Oaks after I saw Asmussen was the trainer on Untapable, that's my little Asmussen protest. How do I always miss those kinda things?
No Asmussen horses in the TC this year. I'll probably be over it by next year though.

Rosie's the best. People may not like to hear it, but a 26 year old girl is the best jockey out there, and will be for a very long time.

Going to Box Samraat and WS, and hope Wildcat Red can hang on for third for my trifecta. Put some win money on Samraat and WS as well. We'll see what happens.
terapined
terapined
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May 3rd, 2014 at 7:33:22 AM permalink
I enjoy horse racing. Used to be a big fan of the trotters and pacers back in the day when Freestate raceway in Maryland was open.
What really disappoints me in the industry is the huge rake.
I think the huge rake hurts the industry and its getting worse.
I just read that todays Kentucky Derby the rake on straight bets is 17.5%, a whole 1.5 point higher then last years 16% rake.
Exotics is just ridiculous at 22%. Last year 19%.
These are huge jumps after only one year.
I would think a lesser rake would attract more action.
The whole industry is killing itself by raising the rake.
Its worse then keno. Yea, its a lot more expensive to put on a race then pick balls but 17.5% and 22% cut of the pari-mutuels.
Are these percentages standard at just about all tracks? Do tracks conspire to keep it at a certain rate so one track doesn't get an advantage?
What was the rake back in the 1930's when the industry thrived?
At todays rake, what a tough bet.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 7:51:08 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

I passed on the Oaks after I saw Asmussen was the trainer on Untapable, that's my little Asmussen protest. How do I always miss those kinda things?
No Asmussen horses in the TC this year. I'll probably be over it by next year though.

Rosie's the best. People may not like to hear it, but a 26 year old girl is the best jockey out there, and will be for a very long time.

Going to Box Samraat and WS, and hope Wildcat Red can hang on for third for my trifecta. Put some win money on Samraat and WS as well. We'll see what happens.



Tapiture is an Asmussen horse in the Derby. I sort of think after the Derby when he finishes 13th, he passes on the Preakness. Then Untapable takes on the boys in an awesome race.

I like Rosie and she is a top jock. But I'd probably rank her around 8-10 in terms of best jockeys. Which is still really good. If she stays healthy, I could see her being a top three jockey later in her career.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 7:54:37 AM permalink
Terapined - the problem with the horse racing industry has always been that they've been stuck in the past. When there was virtually no competition from casinos, a 15% takeout was fine. Now with competition, they've responded by increasing takeout. Ugh.
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 8:46:42 AM permalink
For those interested in CC.

In the win pool he has 25.3% - 2-1
In the place pool he has 15.8%.
In the show pool he has 13.4%.

If this were to stay (which it won't), a show bet on CC would be a great bet. The payout would be around $5 on him to show and around $6.50 for him to win. So obviously, the show bet is great "value"
DRich
DRich
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May 3rd, 2014 at 9:29:33 AM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

20 across on Wildcat Red #10 on your program.



That is exactly what I bet too. My only bet.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
98Clubs
98Clubs
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May 3rd, 2014 at 9:31:54 AM permalink
Pletcher has 4 entries, Maker has 3.
Pletchers Best IMHO horse is not running Constitution.
Dam-side of Wildcat Red looks interesting, thus the proclaimed wager. Dosage a bit high, but looked good 9f.
GL & GR
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 9:37:54 AM permalink
Wildcat Red winning would be a huge payday for me. Which means it's not going to happen.
98Clubs
98Clubs
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May 3rd, 2014 at 10:00:37 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

I enjoy horse racing. Used to be a big fan of the trotters and pacers back in the day when Freestate raceway in Maryland was open.
What really disappoints me in the industry is the huge rake.
I think the huge rake hurts the industry and its getting worse.
I just read that todays Kentucky Derby the rake on straight bets is 17.5%, a whole 1.5 point higher then last years 16% rake.
Exotics is just ridiculous at 22%. Last year 19%.
These are huge jumps after only one year.
I would think a lesser rake would attract more action.
The whole industry is killing itself by raising the rake.
Its worse then keno. Yea, its a lot more expensive to put on a race then pick balls but 17.5% and 22% cut of the pari-mutuels.
Are these percentages standard at just about all tracks? Do tracks conspire to keep it at a certain rate so one track doesn't get an advantage?
What was the rake back in the 1930's when the industry thrived?
At todays rake, what a tough bet.



Well, theres OTB middle-man's cut, and competitive Casino gambling. Tracks need more to offer than a Racing Card. IMHO they should have been granted first refusal on any Casino gaming liscense.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
kenarman
kenarman
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May 3rd, 2014 at 10:02:59 AM permalink
I am going to put Ride On Curlin into my exotics. The horse has some decent genes and his jockey Borel has 3 recent derby wins. Don't much care for his 19 slot though. Not sure wether Wicked Strong on his outside makes that slot better or worse.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 10:12:23 AM permalink
Calvin will get ROC to the rail for the first turn. If the horse is willing, he'll finish top 5.
Buzzard
Buzzard
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May 3rd, 2014 at 10:21:47 AM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

Well, theres OTB middle-man's cut, and competitive Casino gambling. Tracks need more to offer than a Racing Card. IMHO they should have been granted first refusal on any Casino gaming liscense.




Sure ,they gouged the betting public for almost 100 years. Only fair that they get the casino license ? ? ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
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May 3rd, 2014 at 10:23:31 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I will put my money on Danza, Ran a bang up second in Saratoga Special in only his 2nd race. Then laid off 7 months for Allowance tuneup before winning Grade 1 Arkansas Derby bu 4+lengths.
Only 4 lifetime races and G1 win last time out.



CC only pays a good show price if he hits the board. He is even money not to !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 10:43:52 AM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

Pletcher has 4 entries, Maker has 3.
Pletchers Best IMHO horse is not running Constitution.
Dam-side of Wildcat Red looks interesting, thus the proclaimed wager. Dosage a bit high, but looked good 9f.
GL & GR



98Cllubs throwing out dosage. Impressive.
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 10:56:22 AM permalink
Hasn't dosage been proven to be worthless?
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 11:17:12 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Hasn't dosage been proven to be worthless?



Fairly worthless number but can be used as an additional tool in the handicappers tool box

Speaking of numbers, Vicar's in Trouble has run 2 Brisnet triple digit speed figs, Chrome's run 3. Everybody else 1 or less. I like this little horse down on the rail. Could be a slight rail bias? A Rosie double?
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
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May 3rd, 2014 at 11:53:45 AM permalink
I just put $60 SHOW on CC from my untapable Place winnings.
Buzzard
Buzzard
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May 3rd, 2014 at 11:55:04 AM permalink
Good luck
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 12:06:07 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Fairly worthless number but can be used as an additional tool in the handicappers tool box

Speaking of numbers, Vicar's in Trouble has run 2 Brisnet triple digit speed figs, Chrome's run 3. Everybody else 1 or less. I like this little horse down on the rail. Could be a slight rail bias? A Rosie double?



Chrome, Vicar, Wildcat Red...
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 1:05:13 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Chrome, Vicar, Wildcat Red...



I like your picks which is like adding ten pounds to your horses. Apparently Chrome has had some gate issues which could play big in race. He also 'high heads it' when he catches dirt.....could be an all or nothing horse.
Each day is better than the next
aceofspades
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May 3rd, 2014 at 1:40:33 PM permalink
20 Win Wicked Strong
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 1:47:59 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

I like your picks which is like adding ten pounds to your horses. Apparently Chrome has had some gate issues which could play big in race. He also 'high heads it' when he catches dirt.....could be an all or nothing horse.



Agree on all points.
Buzzard
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May 3rd, 2014 at 1:56:09 PM permalink
I don't think Chrome can beat this field with his best race. Another California wanna be ! He will not have 5 lengths at the stretch call, like he did racing against the same weak California colts his last 4 races.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
sodawater
sodawater
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May 3rd, 2014 at 2:02:47 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I don't think Chrome can beat this field with his best race. Another California wanna be ! He will not have 5 lengths at the stretch call, like he did racing against the same weak California colts his last 4 races.



If only there were some sort of standardized figures that measure speed independent of competition and track conditions. Then we could look at how fast each horse was in previous races and compare those performances for a future race. Alas, such "speed figures" surely do not exist.
Buzzard
Buzzard
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May 3rd, 2014 at 2:06:51 PM permalink
I knew Andrew Byers before he came up with Beyers figures. What a crock. Better than the old speed rating in the DRF, but still a crock. And the believers had to have an excuse, when a Triple Fig horse would lose. HE BOUNCED LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 2:15:34 PM permalink
I cringe watching the classic races. Breakdowns and pileups always loom. Just want a safe race.
Each day is better than the next
terapined
terapined
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May 3rd, 2014 at 2:44:52 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I knew Andrew Byers before he came up with Beyers figures. What a crock. Better than the old speed rating in the DRF, but still a crock. And the believers had to have an excuse, when a Triple Fig horse would lose. HE BOUNCED LOL



Just got back from Tampa Bay Downs, after some poker, decided to lay down some low roller bets on the Derby.
Came home to watch the race.
Went with the Beyer special and bet on his picks.

2 to W P S on horse 20 Wicked Strong
2 to P S horse 5 California Chrome
2 to S horse 18 Candy Boy
1 dollar exacta box horse 5 16 18 20. That's all the above plus Intense Holiday
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Tomspur
Tomspur
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May 3rd, 2014 at 2:56:01 PM permalink
I have decided to row in with Danza. I think off a good draw he can perhaps get a ground saving trip and Joe bravo can really have him wherever he wants him. This is only his 5th start so he has some upside.

My plays would be to single him on top with all of Vicars in trouble, CC, Intense holiday, Candy boy, Wicked Strong, General A Rod and Tapiture behind.

will probably take the $2 exacta with Danza on top and the others.......

enjoy the race and may all your fancies have a safe trip around!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Beardgoat
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:18:16 PM permalink
I went $4 exacta CC w/ all for total bet $72 and $30 show for CC
sodawater
sodawater
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:37:08 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

I went $4 exacta CC w/ all for total bet $72 and $30 show for CC



Nice bet. California Chrome didn't even break a sweat in this race. Looked fantastic.
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:41:49 PM permalink
Boom. Pretty excited. Taking forever to post the pays
Tomspur
Tomspur
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:42:13 PM permalink
Got the perfect trip, won an excellent race. Much the best on the day!!!

Do we have a TC contender here? i think he may struggle at the big sandy but the Preakness should be a formality?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Tomspur
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:48:13 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

Boom. Pretty excited. Taking forever to post the pays



$4-20 to show and $340 for the Exacta!!!

Great job bud!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
sodawater
sodawater
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:51:13 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

Boom. Pretty excited. Taking forever to post the pays



You're getting paid $743! A profit of $641
sodawater
sodawater
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:52:22 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Got the perfect trip, won an excellent race. Much the best on the day!!!

Do we have a TC contender here? i think he may struggle at the big sandy but the Preakness should be a formality?



Preakness will be a joke. This horse could win the preakness probably tomorrow. Belmont will be real test. 12 furlongs will be tough but I think he could do it.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 3:58:22 PM permalink
The post race interview is uncomfortable to watch......clumsy
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
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May 3rd, 2014 at 4:02:49 PM permalink
haha, make some nice show money on CC. Looking forward for Preakness.
Tomspur
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May 3rd, 2014 at 4:08:58 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Preakness will be a joke. This horse could win the preakness probably tomorrow. Belmont will be real test. 12 furlongs will be tough but I think he could do it.



you are right, he couldn't even blow out a candle after that. was like an exercise gallop for him.

Belmont 12 is a different kettle of fish all together.

Going to be a fun 5 weeks!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
ThatDonGuy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 4:11:40 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Preakness will be a joke. This horse could win the preakness probably tomorrow. Belmont will be real test. 12 furlongs will be tough but I think he could do it.


I didn't like the way he was slowing down in the last furlong (either that, or the other horses were gaining), and it wasn't just the jockey pulling up. Something tells me (assuming he can win the Preakness - we haven't seen what Hoppertunity can do yet) CC is going to end up what I like to call a "mile and 3/8s Triple Crown winner" - win in Kentucky, win at Pimlico, and have the lead at the eighth pole at Belmont only to get passed.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 4:18:15 PM permalink
I tried to convince my wife to do CC / ALL / ALL trifecta. She said instead CC / her top 5 / ALL. I said let's do CC / ALL / top 5. She won out. We're out $850.

Chrome looked fantastic. He'll win the Preakness. Belmont will be very very interesting.
ThatDonGuy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 4:22:44 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Question: which post position is "really" on the rail - i.e. which horse would be on the rail on the front stretch if it left the gate straight? Somewhere around 4 or 5, isn't it?


They mentioned this before the race - with the scratch, they leave what would normally be gate 1 open, and the #1 post position horse has a straight shot down the stretch. (The actual #1 gate would require moving out in order to miss hitting the rail.) I also noticed that the auxiliary gate was turned in slightly.

Also, if I saw the race right, somebody needs to teach Calvin Borel the "triangle inequality"; he pretty much turned his horse sideways right after the start to get to the rail, which is actually a longer distance than if he eases the horse over.

As I like to say, all of the longshots have one thing in common; they pay zero to win when the favorite comes in first. Of course, how often does the favorite pay $7 to win?
treetopbuddy
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May 3rd, 2014 at 4:50:44 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I didn't like the way he was slowing down in the last furlong (either that, or the other horses were gaining), and it wasn't just the jockey pulling up. Something tells me (assuming he can win the Preakness - we haven't seen what Hoppertunity can do yet) CC is going to end up what I like to call a "mile and 3/8s Triple Crown winner" - win in Kentucky, win at Pimlico, and have the lead at the eighth pole at Belmont only to get passed.



You may be right......in Chrome's defense he had a tough race in that he was hooked and semi hooked, feeling inside and outside pressure until the top of the lane. They were 4 wide for a moment in the far turn. Running eyeball to eyeball is very taxing on a horse. The horses he was battling, Samaart, Bafferts horse and somebody else finished off the board. Commanding Curve ran like Giacomo when he won the Derby, no pressure......ran the same speed all the way around the track with a target to run at.....

It would be hard to believe that a 10 thousand dollar horse can get a mile and a half. A thousand things can go wrong in his attempt to win the Triple......Remember I'll Have Another?
Each day is better than the next
Beardgoat
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May 3rd, 2014 at 4:55:52 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

You're getting paid $743! A profit of $641



After watching the Santa Anita win I just didn't think there was another horse that could do what he did. Once he drew pole position #5 it was locked up. Looking forward to 2 weeks from now
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 5:10:51 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

After watching the Santa Anita win I just didn't think there was another horse that could do what he did. Once he drew pole position #5 it was locked up. Looking forward to 2 weeks from now



I'll be in Vegas for it. I'm not going to try to beat him.
Beardgoat
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May 3rd, 2014 at 5:18:41 PM permalink
Yeah I probably won't go with the exacta w/ all approach. There will be less horses and the pool will be significantly smaller.
98Clubs
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May 3rd, 2014 at 5:28:54 PM permalink
Oooh 19/20. Thought WildCat was better than that. Preakness up next. I like Wicked Strong considering the long trip here from outside/20. Hope he runs. Someone here had the Curve. NICE.

Monster run by Caifornia Chrome in KY against these. Can't bet against him. Hopin for grain and tack with WS.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
speedycrap
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May 3rd, 2014 at 7:20:09 PM permalink
Waiting for Preakness. If Wicked Strong will be in, I will take CC on top with Wicked Strong second, then all, all for my tri and super.
Boz
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May 3rd, 2014 at 7:21:01 PM permalink
Nothing from Buzz?
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 3rd, 2014 at 7:39:37 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Waiting for Preakness. If Wicked Strong will be in, I will take CC on top with Wicked Strong second, then all, all for my tri and super.



No way Wicked Strong runs in Preakness. I'm sure he waits for CC in the Belmont.

Only one horse has a chance to beat CC in the Preakness and she is probably isn't running.
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