2014 Kentucky Derby
Quote: onenickelmiracleBest bets looking at odds 10x, 15x+ to win?
Candy Boy.
No Asmussen horses in the TC this year. I'll probably be over it by next year though.
Rosie's the best. People may not like to hear it, but a 26 year old girl is the best jockey out there, and will be for a very long time.
Going to Box Samraat and WS, and hope Wildcat Red can hang on for third for my trifecta. Put some win money on Samraat and WS as well. We'll see what happens.
What really disappoints me in the industry is the huge rake.
I think the huge rake hurts the industry and its getting worse.
I just read that todays Kentucky Derby the rake on straight bets is 17.5%, a whole 1.5 point higher then last years 16% rake.
Exotics is just ridiculous at 22%. Last year 19%.
These are huge jumps after only one year.
I would think a lesser rake would attract more action.
The whole industry is killing itself by raising the rake.
Its worse then keno. Yea, its a lot more expensive to put on a race then pick balls but 17.5% and 22% cut of the pari-mutuels.
Are these percentages standard at just about all tracks? Do tracks conspire to keep it at a certain rate so one track doesn't get an advantage?
What was the rake back in the 1930's when the industry thrived?
At todays rake, what a tough bet.
Quote: JyBrd0403I passed on the Oaks after I saw Asmussen was the trainer on Untapable, that's my little Asmussen protest. How do I always miss those kinda things?
No Asmussen horses in the TC this year. I'll probably be over it by next year though.
Rosie's the best. People may not like to hear it, but a 26 year old girl is the best jockey out there, and will be for a very long time.
Going to Box Samraat and WS, and hope Wildcat Red can hang on for third for my trifecta. Put some win money on Samraat and WS as well. We'll see what happens.
Tapiture is an Asmussen horse in the Derby. I sort of think after the Derby when he finishes 13th, he passes on the Preakness. Then Untapable takes on the boys in an awesome race.
I like Rosie and she is a top jock. But I'd probably rank her around 8-10 in terms of best jockeys. Which is still really good. If she stays healthy, I could see her being a top three jockey later in her career.
In the win pool he has 25.3% - 2-1
In the place pool he has 15.8%.
In the show pool he has 13.4%.
If this were to stay (which it won't), a show bet on CC would be a great bet. The payout would be around $5 on him to show and around $6.50 for him to win. So obviously, the show bet is great "value"
Quote: 98Clubs20 across on Wildcat Red #10 on your program.
That is exactly what I bet too. My only bet.
Pletchers Best IMHO horse is not running Constitution.
Dam-side of Wildcat Red looks interesting, thus the proclaimed wager. Dosage a bit high, but looked good 9f.
GL & GR
Quote: terapinedI enjoy horse racing. Used to be a big fan of the trotters and pacers back in the day when Freestate raceway in Maryland was open.
What really disappoints me in the industry is the huge rake.
I think the huge rake hurts the industry and its getting worse.
I just read that todays Kentucky Derby the rake on straight bets is 17.5%, a whole 1.5 point higher then last years 16% rake.
Exotics is just ridiculous at 22%. Last year 19%.
These are huge jumps after only one year.
I would think a lesser rake would attract more action.
The whole industry is killing itself by raising the rake.
Its worse then keno. Yea, its a lot more expensive to put on a race then pick balls but 17.5% and 22% cut of the pari-mutuels.
Are these percentages standard at just about all tracks? Do tracks conspire to keep it at a certain rate so one track doesn't get an advantage?
What was the rake back in the 1930's when the industry thrived?
At todays rake, what a tough bet.
Well, theres OTB middle-man's cut, and competitive Casino gambling. Tracks need more to offer than a Racing Card. IMHO they should have been granted first refusal on any Casino gaming liscense.
Quote: 98ClubsWell, theres OTB middle-man's cut, and competitive Casino gambling. Tracks need more to offer than a Racing Card. IMHO they should have been granted first refusal on any Casino gaming liscense.
Sure ,they gouged the betting public for almost 100 years. Only fair that they get the casino license ? ? ?
Quote: BuzzardI will put my money on Danza, Ran a bang up second in Saratoga Special in only his 2nd race. Then laid off 7 months for Allowance tuneup before winning Grade 1 Arkansas Derby bu 4+lengths.
Only 4 lifetime races and G1 win last time out.
CC only pays a good show price if he hits the board. He is even money not to !
Quote: 98ClubsPletcher has 4 entries, Maker has 3.
Pletchers Best IMHO horse is not running Constitution.
Dam-side of Wildcat Red looks interesting, thus the proclaimed wager. Dosage a bit high, but looked good 9f.
GL & GR
98Cllubs throwing out dosage. Impressive.
Quote: FinsRuleHasn't dosage been proven to be worthless?
Fairly worthless number but can be used as an additional tool in the handicappers tool box
Speaking of numbers, Vicar's in Trouble has run 2 Brisnet triple digit speed figs, Chrome's run 3. Everybody else 1 or less. I like this little horse down on the rail. Could be a slight rail bias? A Rosie double?
Quote: treetopbuddyFairly worthless number but can be used as an additional tool in the handicappers tool box
Speaking of numbers, Vicar's in Trouble has run 2 Brisnet triple digit speed figs, Chrome's run 3. Everybody else 1 or less. I like this little horse down on the rail. Could be a slight rail bias? A Rosie double?
Chrome, Vicar, Wildcat Red...
Quote: FinsRuleChrome, Vicar, Wildcat Red...
I like your picks which is like adding ten pounds to your horses. Apparently Chrome has had some gate issues which could play big in race. He also 'high heads it' when he catches dirt.....could be an all or nothing horse.
Quote: treetopbuddyI like your picks which is like adding ten pounds to your horses. Apparently Chrome has had some gate issues which could play big in race. He also 'high heads it' when he catches dirt.....could be an all or nothing horse.
Agree on all points.
Quote: BuzzardI don't think Chrome can beat this field with his best race. Another California wanna be ! He will not have 5 lengths at the stretch call, like he did racing against the same weak California colts his last 4 races.
If only there were some sort of standardized figures that measure speed independent of competition and track conditions. Then we could look at how fast each horse was in previous races and compare those performances for a future race. Alas, such "speed figures" surely do not exist.
Quote: BuzzardI knew Andrew Byers before he came up with Beyers figures. What a crock. Better than the old speed rating in the DRF, but still a crock. And the believers had to have an excuse, when a Triple Fig horse would lose. HE BOUNCED LOL
Just got back from Tampa Bay Downs, after some poker, decided to lay down some low roller bets on the Derby.
Came home to watch the race.
Went with the Beyer special and bet on his picks.
2 to W P S on horse 20 Wicked Strong
2 to P S horse 5 California Chrome
2 to S horse 18 Candy Boy
1 dollar exacta box horse 5 16 18 20. That's all the above plus Intense Holiday
My plays would be to single him on top with all of Vicars in trouble, CC, Intense holiday, Candy boy, Wicked Strong, General A Rod and Tapiture behind.
will probably take the $2 exacta with Danza on top and the others.......
enjoy the race and may all your fancies have a safe trip around!
Quote: BeardgoatI went $4 exacta CC w/ all for total bet $72 and $30 show for CC
Nice bet. California Chrome didn't even break a sweat in this race. Looked fantastic.
Do we have a TC contender here? i think he may struggle at the big sandy but the Preakness should be a formality?
Quote: BeardgoatBoom. Pretty excited. Taking forever to post the pays
$4-20 to show and $340 for the Exacta!!!
Great job bud!
Quote: BeardgoatBoom. Pretty excited. Taking forever to post the pays
You're getting paid $743! A profit of $641
Quote: TomspurGot the perfect trip, won an excellent race. Much the best on the day!!!
Do we have a TC contender here? i think he may struggle at the big sandy but the Preakness should be a formality?
Preakness will be a joke. This horse could win the preakness probably tomorrow. Belmont will be real test. 12 furlongs will be tough but I think he could do it.
Quote: sodawaterPreakness will be a joke. This horse could win the preakness probably tomorrow. Belmont will be real test. 12 furlongs will be tough but I think he could do it.
you are right, he couldn't even blow out a candle after that. was like an exercise gallop for him.
Belmont 12 is a different kettle of fish all together.
Going to be a fun 5 weeks!
Quote: sodawaterPreakness will be a joke. This horse could win the preakness probably tomorrow. Belmont will be real test. 12 furlongs will be tough but I think he could do it.
I didn't like the way he was slowing down in the last furlong (either that, or the other horses were gaining), and it wasn't just the jockey pulling up. Something tells me (assuming he can win the Preakness - we haven't seen what Hoppertunity can do yet) CC is going to end up what I like to call a "mile and 3/8s Triple Crown winner" - win in Kentucky, win at Pimlico, and have the lead at the eighth pole at Belmont only to get passed.
Chrome looked fantastic. He'll win the Preakness. Belmont will be very very interesting.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuestion: which post position is "really" on the rail - i.e. which horse would be on the rail on the front stretch if it left the gate straight? Somewhere around 4 or 5, isn't it?
They mentioned this before the race - with the scratch, they leave what would normally be gate 1 open, and the #1 post position horse has a straight shot down the stretch. (The actual #1 gate would require moving out in order to miss hitting the rail.) I also noticed that the auxiliary gate was turned in slightly.
Also, if I saw the race right, somebody needs to teach Calvin Borel the "triangle inequality"; he pretty much turned his horse sideways right after the start to get to the rail, which is actually a longer distance than if he eases the horse over.
As I like to say, all of the longshots have one thing in common; they pay zero to win when the favorite comes in first. Of course, how often does the favorite pay $7 to win?
Quote: ThatDonGuyI didn't like the way he was slowing down in the last furlong (either that, or the other horses were gaining), and it wasn't just the jockey pulling up. Something tells me (assuming he can win the Preakness - we haven't seen what Hoppertunity can do yet) CC is going to end up what I like to call a "mile and 3/8s Triple Crown winner" - win in Kentucky, win at Pimlico, and have the lead at the eighth pole at Belmont only to get passed.
You may be right......in Chrome's defense he had a tough race in that he was hooked and semi hooked, feeling inside and outside pressure until the top of the lane. They were 4 wide for a moment in the far turn. Running eyeball to eyeball is very taxing on a horse. The horses he was battling, Samaart, Bafferts horse and somebody else finished off the board. Commanding Curve ran like Giacomo when he won the Derby, no pressure......ran the same speed all the way around the track with a target to run at.....
It would be hard to believe that a 10 thousand dollar horse can get a mile and a half. A thousand things can go wrong in his attempt to win the Triple......Remember I'll Have Another?
Quote: sodawaterYou're getting paid $743! A profit of $641
After watching the Santa Anita win I just didn't think there was another horse that could do what he did. Once he drew pole position #5 it was locked up. Looking forward to 2 weeks from now
Quote: BeardgoatAfter watching the Santa Anita win I just didn't think there was another horse that could do what he did. Once he drew pole position #5 it was locked up. Looking forward to 2 weeks from now
I'll be in Vegas for it. I'm not going to try to beat him.
Monster run by Caifornia Chrome in KY against these. Can't bet against him. Hopin for grain and tack with WS.
Quote: speedycrapWaiting for Preakness. If Wicked Strong will be in, I will take CC on top with Wicked Strong second, then all, all for my tri and super.
No way Wicked Strong runs in Preakness. I'm sure he waits for CC in the Belmont.
Only one horse has a chance to beat CC in the Preakness and she is probably isn't running.
