treetopbuddy
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April 5th, 2014 at 8:46:48 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Besides California Chrome, this year is wide wide open. Chrome will go off at 4-1, which is not a good price. So you have to pick against him. Im thinking the exotics will be paying a ton this year.



California Chrome is one fast horse. He beat three legit horses handily. He comes from a modest family.....first and second dams were claiming horses. Lucky Pulpit is a second line stallion.
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FinsRule
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April 5th, 2014 at 9:34:09 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

California Chrome is one fast horse. He beat three legit horses handily. He comes from a modest family.....first and second dams were claiming horses. Lucky Pulpit is a second line stallion.



I know one farm is happy - Lucky Pulpit's...

I heard Cali Chrome has 2 full sisters, I bet they are suddenly worth a lot more.
bdc42
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April 6th, 2014 at 1:49:46 AM permalink
that race is going to kill the odds on the Derby. At least the east coast bias faithful will still give us a reasonable ROI. I hope.
treetopbuddy
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April 6th, 2014 at 8:00:10 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I know one farm is happy - Lucky Pulpit's...

I heard Cali Chrome has 2 full sisters, I bet they are suddenly worth a lot more.



It's rare when a horse is faster than it's Sire and Dam. Chrome's mom was purchased for 8k. Lucky Pulpit stands for 2500 dollars.

Only 3 California breds have won the Kentucky Derby

Everybody connected to this horse has hit a home run.
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ThatDonGuy
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April 6th, 2014 at 10:21:23 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

No SA is proper dirt but the dirt at Churchill is much deeper and more demanding


Apparently, California got rid of its "all tracks that run 4 or more consecutive weeks" (i.e. "not county fair tracks like Santa Rosa or Pleasanton") rule; with Hollywood Park and Bay Meadows closed and Del Mar switching back next year, the only artificial surface left in CA is Golden Gate Fields.
treetopbuddy
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April 6th, 2014 at 12:54:57 PM permalink
The artificial surface at Del Mar has a nasty oily smell.......glad to see it go.
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Tomspur
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April 7th, 2014 at 11:54:53 PM permalink
I just realized something.

The Wood result can almost directly be correlated from that hot allowance at Gulfstream which suited Social Inclusion and not so much the closers. The Wood was won by Wicked Strong who finished a distant 4th in that allowance AND my fancy (Mexikoma) finished much the stronger in that race and got 3rd....

Now I'm even more bummed he is off the trail but watch the Belmont boys.......Don't say I didn't tell you!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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April 8th, 2014 at 5:49:53 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Besides California Chrome, this year is wide wide open. Chrome will go off at 4-1, which is not a good price. So you have to pick against him. Im thinking the exotics will be paying a ton this year.



4-1 is a good price if he wins......400% return in 2 minutes? I'm guessing he'll go off at a couple ticks under 3-1 if nothing dramatic happens leading up to race. Why would you pick against a horse that you believe to be the best in the field. You believe 4-1 is an underlay.....another player of equal handicapping skills, finds value in 4-1. Value handicapping is a bunch of BS

If you bet the horse and it wins.....you made a good bet, found value and more money in you pock
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sodawater
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April 8th, 2014 at 6:00:57 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy


If you bet the horse and it wins.....you made a good bet and found value



Wrong. That is an invalid way to determine if you found value.

If you bet on a coin flip and lay $10 vs $100, and win, that doesn't mean you found value. You made a bad bet and got lucky.

Some horses are better than other horses, of course, but that doesn't mean that if they won, the price was right. There is an inherent luck and randomness factor in any race.
FinsRule
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April 8th, 2014 at 6:16:49 PM permalink
I think I may have over-estimated his odds. 3-1 or 5-2 probably does seem right. It's just really hard to take those odds in the Derby. Here's hoping he draws poorly.
treetopbuddy
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April 8th, 2014 at 6:25:24 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Wrong. That is an invalid way to determine if you found value.

Some horses are better than other horses, of course, but that doesn't mean that if they won, the price was right. /q]

Wrong. Exactly who determines what the right price is.....? Somebody's overlay is another's underlay. I get the biggest hoot when a horseplayer declares after the race ...."I couldn't bet that horse at that price, I don't care that it won.".....apparently other players found value in that they played the horse. Finding value in a horse is subjective at best. Value handicapping is pure BS.

Your fixed odds coin flipping example does not apply to horse racing.

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sodawater
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April 8th, 2014 at 6:43:47 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy



Your fixed odds coin flipping example does not apply to horse racing.



It just illustrates that for any bet that has any degree of randomness involved, a price can be made where it's not a good bet. In horse racing, you could put Secretariat vs. 5 donkeys and there would be a price where Secretariat is a bad bet. Horses can always injure themselves, disqualify themselves, have a hidden illness. There are lots of ways to lose a race.

Your horse might win the race, but if he does, it doesn't mean the price was good. The outcome of the race is not related to how good a price it was before the race.
Buzzard
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April 8th, 2014 at 8:45:32 PM permalink
Gotta love this game. Been waiting for this maiden, 4 month layoff , nice works , all systems go. Right !

Wrong Here is last race line of another maiden in the race .

COLONEL JOAN bumped and steadied at the start, stalked inside, came out for room leaving the second turn, split rivals a quarter mile out and rallied
between horses late.

She finished 3rd in a but higher class than the MSW race on this coming Friday at Keeneland.

3rd out of 14 starters STAKES Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Grade 1 - For Thoroughbred Two Year Old Fillies
One Mile On The Turf
Track Record:
(Wise Dan - 1:31.78 - November 3, 2012)
Purse:
$1,000,000 Guaranteed

I think I will now pass on Ameliatheaviator LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Tomspur
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April 8th, 2014 at 8:53:18 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Gotta love this game. Been waiting for this maiden, 4 month layoff , nice works , all systems go. Right !

Wrong Here is last race line of another maiden in the race .

COLONEL JOAN bumped and steadied at the start, stalked inside, came out for room leaving the second turn, split rivals a quarter mile out and rallied
between horses late.

She finished 3rd in a but higher class than the MSW race on this coming Friday at Keeneland.

3rd out of 14 starters STAKES Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Grade 1 - For Thoroughbred Two Year Old Fillies
One Mile On The Turf
Track Record:
(Wise Dan - 1:31.78 - November 3, 2012)
Purse:
$1,000,000 Guaranteed

I think I will now pass on Ameliatheaviator LOL



Exacta box just in case :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Buzzard
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April 8th, 2014 at 8:56:06 PM permalink
Probably. But hoping Amelia doesn't show that much and goes on turf next race.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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April 8th, 2014 at 8:58:33 PM permalink
Once had big bet on a maiden name Lillypond. Went off 5/2 and a Irish maiden starting first time in US blew by her like she was standing still in midstretch. Did get my money back when Celtic Ash won the Belmont.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Tomspur
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April 8th, 2014 at 9:01:58 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Once had big bet on a maiden name Lillypond. Went off 5/2 and a Irish maiden starting first time in US blew by her like she was standing still in midstretch. Did get my money back when Celtic Ash won the Belmont.



You have to be careful of those shippers first time on turf. They are just so much better than the American horses.

It is a pity the owners or Wise Dan never tried their luck at Royal Ascot or the like. WOuld have loved to have seen if he was good enough to compete against them.

IMO, he was hardly good enough to beat Animal Kingdom in their breeders cup meeting and AK ran downfield at Ascot, admittedly he didn't like the going but still.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Buzzard
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April 8th, 2014 at 9:07:02 PM permalink
Celtic Ash won on dirt and 5 and 1/2 F. He was 0/3 on turf in Ireland. His next race at 1 mile at Laurel he broke the track Bally Ache was scratched the day before the Belmont. Celtic Ash paid $20 in the Belmont. Would have paid $30-40 in Bally Ache had not gone lame. He won by 5 under a hand ride by a GREAT jockey Bill Hartack.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Tomspur
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April 8th, 2014 at 9:09:16 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Celtic Ash won on dirt and 5 and 1/2 F. He was 0/3 on turf in Ireland. His next race at 1 mile at Laurel he broke the track Bally Ache was scratched the day before the Belmont. Celtic Ash paid $20 in the Belmont. Would have paid $30-40 in Bally Ache had not gone lame. He won by 5 under a hand ride by a GREAT jockey Bill Hartack.



Not often you see a UK horse come over and do well on dirt, even thoguh I think it is an angle too many people overlook. There is really no way of knowing unless you go back a few generations in the pedigree picture if a European shipper is going to take to the dirt because there are no dirt race tracks in the UK.

I don't even think there are any in Europe unless there are some in small tracks in Italy or Germany.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Buzzard
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April 8th, 2014 at 9:13:59 PM permalink
Bed time Adios
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
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April 11th, 2014 at 4:32:58 PM permalink
Wise Dan wins Maker Mile for 20th win. He's won six and a half million. Shame for Dan they dropped his balls so no ladies for him.

Paid 2.80 on a 2.00......I considered that value. :-)
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Tomspur
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April 13th, 2014 at 5:04:14 PM permalink
I had this conversation this weekend with a trainer in South Africa. She is of the opinion that Wise Dan is the best miler she has ever seen in her lifetime.......

I said no way jose.

He is very good but the best, no. He never ran in Europe and the best europeans never took him on in his 2 breeders cup wins. In fact, his first win he was lucky to beat Animal Kingdom in my opinion.

Her argument was that his times were faster than what Frankel ran for a mile in the UK. COmparing UK turf times with the US turf tracks is like comparing my golf swing to that of Louis Oosthuizen.....nuff said!

Wise Dan has been beating mediocre US turf horses and the very mediocre UK turf horses who make the trip each year. Look, he can do no more than win and he has won 20 times, quite remarkable but is he the "best miler of her lifetime"??? Most assuredly not.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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April 13th, 2014 at 5:31:52 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I had this conversation this weekend with a trainer in South Africa. She is of the opinion that Wise Dan is the best miler she has ever seen in her lifetime.......

I said no way jose.

He is very good but the best, no. He never ran in Europe and the best europeans never took him on in his 2 breeders cup wins. In fact, his first win he was lucky to beat Animal Kingdom in my opinion.

Her argument was that his times were faster than what Frankel ran for a mile in the UK. COmparing UK turf times with the US turf tracks is like comparing my golf swing to that of Louis Oosthuizen.....nuff said!

Wise Dan has been beating mediocre US turf horses and the very mediocre UK turf horses who make the trip each year. Look, he can do no more than win and he has won 20 times, quite remarkable but is he the "best miler of her lifetime"??? Most assuredly not.



Do you have a picture of Animal Kingdom above your bed? You love that horse, meanwhile everybody in horse racing has forgotten about him. What is your connection to the horse?

I'd suggest that you go back through Wise Dan's PPs. You'll learn that he has won on the dirt and turf, ran big speed figs, beat top class horses handily and actually has a racing career. He's still running. Ever consider that connections have backed away from racing Dan?

Yesterday at Keeneland I love this horse and I knew he was going to win, but he was going of at 6-1 and I felt the true value on the horse should have been 9-1, so I didn't bet the horse. He won going away. Kidding, a value handicapping joke.

Been reading your posts, how did you come by all your horse racing knowledge? I know where. :-)

'Wise Dan was lucky to beat Animal Kingdom'......hehehehehe

Only you can knock Wise Dan...... how the dirt at Churchill Downs?
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FinsRule
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April 13th, 2014 at 6:11:26 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I had this conversation this weekend with a trainer in South Africa. She is of the opinion that Wise Dan is the best miler she has ever seen in her lifetime.......

I said no way jose.

He is very good but the best, no. He never ran in Europe and the best europeans never took him on in his 2 breeders cup wins. In fact, his first win he was lucky to beat Animal Kingdom in my opinion.

Her argument was that his times were faster than what Frankel ran for a mile in the UK. COmparing UK turf times with the US turf tracks is like comparing my golf swing to that of Louis Oosthuizen.....nuff said!

Wise Dan has been beating mediocre US turf horses and the very mediocre UK turf horses who make the trip each year. Look, he can do no more than win and he has won 20 times, quite remarkable but is he the "best miler of her lifetime"??? Most assuredly not.



I question the wisdom of your trainer. She would bet Wise Dan over Frankel in a mile race? That opinion is shared by no one.
Tomspur
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April 13th, 2014 at 7:04:06 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I question the wisdom of your trainer. She would bet Wise Dan over Frankel in a mile race? That opinion is shared by no one.



That was my point exactly, even Sea the Stars would have murdered Wise Dan over any distance he chose to run over against him :)

Her argument was that Wise Dans times were so much faster than Frankel, therefore he has to be a superior animal.......I'm not going to say anymore about the subject :)
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Tomspur
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April 13th, 2014 at 7:06:41 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Do you have a picture of Animal Kingdom above your bed? You love that horse, meanwhile everybody in horse racing has forgotten about him. What is your connection to the horse?

I'd suggest that you go back through Wise Dan's PPs. You'll learn that he has won on the dirt and turf, ran big speed figs, beat top class horses handily and actually has a racing career. He's still running. Ever consider that connections have backed away from racing Dan?

Yesterday at Keeneland I love this horse and I knew he was going to win, but he was going of at 6-1 and I felt the true value on the horse should have been 9-1, so I didn't bet the horse. He won going away. Kidding, a value handicapping joke.

Been reading your posts, how did you come by all your horse racing knowledge? I know where. :-)

'Wise Dan was lucky to beat Animal Kingdom'......hehehehehe

Only you can knock Wise Dan...... how the dirt at Churchill Downs?



You know, I do have a special connection to AK. I liked him after he won the Spiral and followed him for the rest of his career. I knew he was something special and because of his size and confirmation I knew (in my heart of hearts) that he would love the dirt too!

If AK gets a clear run in that BC turf, he kills Wise Dan......but Ifs and Butts are inconsequential here :)

My horse racing knoweldge is all self taught. I have been in the racing game in one way or another (from administrative, to owning and punting) for about 30 years now......I love everything about the game, except for losing :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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April 13th, 2014 at 7:25:34 PM permalink
I dunno Tom, I think Wise Dan was best that Day. The fact that he could run 2nd off of that layoff is a testament to the horse and trainer. I would say Animal Kingdom has been underrated. Is he a Hall of Famer? I think so.
Tomspur
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April 13th, 2014 at 7:29:00 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I dunno Tom, I think Wise Dan was best that Day. The fact that he could run 2nd off of that layoff is a testament to the horse and trainer. I would say Animal Kingdom has been underrated. Is he a Hall of Famer? I think so.



Problem is that he didn't get to compete half of his 3 year old career and half of his 4 year old career due to injury. What he did at Belmont to run a close up 5th with a fractured hip was just extraordinary.

I'm not sure about what criteria they use to select HOF candidates or is it simply by ballot?

I'm looking forward to seeing what he can produce in the barn with the right broodmares sent to him?

Problem is breeding is now all about money and pinkhooking and not about getting the best possible matings that would produce the BEST horse, not the most expensive horse :)
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treetopbuddy
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April 14th, 2014 at 3:30:11 PM permalink
Animal Kingdom will make an nice outcross to most mares. He gets double duty, Australia & US. I'm guessing Tomspur would love to watch Animal Kingdom jump a few mares. 'Give it to her son, that's my boy'
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treetopbuddy
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April 15th, 2014 at 12:42:56 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I knew he was something special and because of his size and confirmation:)



Interesting......where did you see him?
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Tomspur
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April 15th, 2014 at 5:16:42 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Interesting......where did you see him?



You don't have to be a racing expert or even a conformation expert to know that this is a serious racehorse :)



My real regret is that we never got to see the best of him as a late 3 year old, early 4 year old.

Everybody has a favorite ttb, I'm sure you do too?
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Tomspur
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April 16th, 2014 at 6:12:41 PM permalink
Another one bites the dust. Now Constitution is also off the Derby trail with a hariline fracture in his off fore cannon bone.

He was a serious contenter in my mind, Pletcher is pretty cut up.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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April 16th, 2014 at 6:14:53 PM permalink
Rule #3 - Don't bet on Pletcher in the Derby.
Tomspur
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April 16th, 2014 at 6:18:49 PM permalink
Here is the latest points log just before the last chance Lexington.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings

If Hoppertunity ran flat last time then perhaps he can finish forward in the Derby?
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treetopbuddy
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April 16th, 2014 at 7:00:15 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Another one bites the dust. Now Constitution is also off the Derby trail with a hariline fracture in his off fore cannon bone.

He was a serious contenter in my mind, Pletcher is pretty cut up.



Another breeding horse ready to pass on fragility to next generation ..........
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Tomspur
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April 16th, 2014 at 7:05:08 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Another breeding horse ready to pass on fragility to next generation ..........



Well not yet, he is going to race as a 4 year old and perhaps a late 3 year old but your point is well taken!
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FinsRule
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April 16th, 2014 at 7:22:29 PM permalink
Here is my top 6:

Cali Chrome
Wicked Strong
Hopportunity
Vicars in Trouble
Ride on Curlin
Wildcat Red
treetopbuddy
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April 17th, 2014 at 9:40:32 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Another one bites the dust. Now Constitution is also off the Derby trail with a hariline fracture in his off fore cannon bone.

He was a serious contenter in my mind, Pletcher is pretty cut up.



Probably the best thing that could happen to Constitution. His cannon bones can now go through the remodeling process. Lucky he didn't have catastrophic breakdown.

The breed has become extremely fragile. Breeding brilliant speed to brilliant speed has compromised the race horse.
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JW17
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April 17th, 2014 at 9:55:56 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Here is my top 6:

Cali Chrome
Wicked Strong
Hopportunity
Vicars in Trouble
Ride on Curlin
Wildcat Red



I have the same TOP 3.

This derby is ugly this year.
Tomspur
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April 20th, 2014 at 8:55:39 PM permalink
Cairo Prince is yet another casualty.

I'm sure the top 20 is pretty much set apart from one or two defectors due to them not being suited to the dirt.

If California Chrome doesn't win, anything can.
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FinsRule
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April 20th, 2014 at 9:03:52 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

If California Chrome doesn't win, anything can.



For sure. You'd think with the amount of races I watch, I'd have a strong opinion about one of the other 19. But honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if any of them won if something happens to CC.
JW17
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April 22nd, 2014 at 7:11:27 PM permalink
If the Derby was today Im playing a tri California Chrome/ALL/ALL

And the Oaks/Woodward/Derby PK3 maybe all singles Untapible/Wise Dan/CChrome
Tomspur
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April 22nd, 2014 at 7:23:09 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

If the Derby was today Im playing a tri California Chrome/ALL/ALL

And the Oaks/Woodward/Derby PK3 maybe all singles Untapible/Wise Dan/CChrome



It seems like as good a bet to have as any. CC is really the fairytale story of the century!! The more I read about the back story the more I'm rooting for these guys. I believe they turned down $6 million because the controlling owners wanted to move the horse away from Art Sherman?

Due to me lacking any (remaining) allegiance this year, I will be rowing full bore, in with CC!!!
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FinsRule
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April 22nd, 2014 at 7:28:53 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

If the Derby was today Im playing a tri California Chrome/ALL/ALL

And the Oaks/Woodward/Derby PK3 maybe all singles Untapible/Wise Dan/CChrome



I'm going to pound that Pick-3, but I'm going to put more horses than them in. One of them will get beat, and it will help shoot the price up. I actually think Wise Dan might be vulnerable at 9 furlongs.

EDIT - I think Untapable is probably the biggest lock of the 3.
JW17
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April 22nd, 2014 at 8:13:27 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'm going to pound that Pick-3, but I'm going to put more horses than them in. One of them will get beat, and it will help shoot the price up. I actually think Wise Dan might be vulnerable at 9 furlongs.

EDIT - I think Untapable is probably the biggest lock of the 3.



I will play more also.

I was looking at last years tri $1 ticket with orb (favorite)/all/all paid $3500 for a $342 ticket. I hate betting the chalk especially in the derby but I don't see anything this year. Which doesn't mean much as I haven't picked a winner since secretariat and I was in my moms womb with 2 months to go then.
FinsRule
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April 22nd, 2014 at 8:19:47 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

I will play more also.

I was looking at last years tri $1 ticket with orb (favorite)/all/all paid $3500 for a $342 ticket. I hate betting the chalk especially in the derby but I don't see anything this year. Which doesn't mean much as I haven't picked a winner since secretariat and I was in my moms womb with 2 months to go then.



Orb was 5.5 to 1. CC is going to go off at about 1/2 that, maybe less. The tri also got a ton of help with Golden Soul finishing 2nd. I think with choices 2-20 being pretty equal, you'll get a lot less help on the tri.

My wife and I have talked about the CC / ALL / ALL tri, but I see it paying more like $1200 tops. I'm going to stick with my top 5 in multi-race wagers. If CC wins, I'll probably break even for the day, if any of the other 4 win, I'll make something.
Tomspur
Tomspur
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April 22nd, 2014 at 8:46:36 PM permalink
I think the next thing to do is wait for the announcement of the final field and then wwe wait for the gate draws.

Seems like horses who get a slightly wide trip and can stay out of trouble in the beginning stages do quite well, I mean if you don't have a jock named "Borel" on the back of your pony :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
speedycrap
speedycrap
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April 23rd, 2014 at 6:05:50 AM permalink
10 more days to go. So, California Chrome is a GOOD show bet????
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 23rd, 2014 at 6:16:02 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

10 more days to go. So, California Chrome is a GOOD show bet????



If he finishes in the top three with a longer shot or two you might get back 3 dollars on a 2 dollar ticket. Hey, 50% return in 2 minutes.....not bad.
Each day is better than the next
speedycrap
speedycrap
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April 23rd, 2014 at 6:29:01 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

If he finishes in the top three with a longer shot or two you might get back 3 dollars on a 2 dollar ticket. Hey, 50% return in 2 minutes.....not bad.

That is exactly what I am looking for. Plus rebate on wagering online account. I think I got 3%. It is worth $200 on show CC.
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