treetopbuddy
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:32:09 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Do you know what the favorites records are in the Derby? To me it seems that, the last few years anyway, the favorites struggle.



The only recent favorite that comes to mind was Fushaci Pegasus. Went off 9/5 I believe…..maybe the only favorite in the last 30 years to win Derby…..would have to fact check that…..
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Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:51:47 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

The only recent favorite that comes to mind was Fushaci Pegasus. Went off 9/5 I believe…..maybe the only favorite in the last 30 years to win Derby…..would have to fact check that…..



It is quite an amazing record considering favorites win races all around the world at a clip of somewhere between 29% and 33%.

Just shows you the competitive nature of this race. You need a special kind of horse (on the day) to win this race.......and then you also need a special kind of ride too (Mine That Bird was not special imo, he got a special trip and a special ride on the day).

What I do find strange is that, littered inbetween the Derby greats you find so many "average" horses who have won the Derby. Why is that?
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JW17
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March 25th, 2014 at 7:26:23 PM permalink
Big Brown, was the favorite.
Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 7:32:28 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

Big Brown, was the favorite.



You are right, he landed up being favorite but I think he opened up 8/1 on the ML. He was certainly a very well backed horse throughout Derby day
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FinsRule
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March 25th, 2014 at 8:44:27 PM permalink
Wasn't Orb the favorite? I know it was real close.
Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 8:46:10 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Wasn't Orb the favorite? I know it was real close.



It was real close between Orb and Verezzano but I believe you are right. Orb went off the slight 7/2 pick.
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treetopbuddy
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March 26th, 2014 at 5:55:07 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

It is quite an amazing record considering favorites win races all around the world at a clip of somewhere between 29% and 33%.

Just shows you the competitive nature of this race. You need a special kind of horse (on the day) to win this race.......and then you also need a special kind of ride too (Mine That Bird was not special imo, he got a special trip and a special ride on the day).

What I do find strange is that, littered inbetween the Derby greats you find so many "average" horses who have won the Derby. Why is that?



Yeah, forgot about Big Brown and Orb…..I guess the point I was trying to make in response to Tomspur's inquiry was that very few favs win the KD. Far below the 33% standard in horse racing.

Tomspur, I wouldn't call any horse that wins the Derby average. Yes, average when compared to the greats that have won the race, but still very nice racehorses. Anytime a horse runs a 100+ Beyers he is far from average. But I get your point.

Alot of Derby winners peak as three year olds. They have run their race at the right time. If you track Derby horses, a high percentage end up in allowance or even high end claiming races by the end of their 3 year old season. Derby horses are simply the early bloomers of the 3 year old crop.

For the most part a horse has to beat older horses to be considered great. IMO
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1arrowheaddr
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March 26th, 2014 at 6:29:22 AM permalink
There are 20 horses in the KD, most races have 8-10. Of course the favorite will win fewer KD's than the average race.
treetopbuddy
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March 26th, 2014 at 7:53:51 AM permalink
Not true…..large fields tend to ferret out stronger favorites. Watch short field races of 5-6 horses, favorites are beaten all the time. My favorite betting angle is betting odds on horses with 10 or more betting interests. If you watch International racing which has it's share of large fields 15+ horses….favorites contend every bit as much as a favorite in 5 horse field. That's why their favorites.

Realistically the Derby has maybe 10 contenders even though they load 20.
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FinsRule
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March 26th, 2014 at 8:37:50 AM permalink
Quote: 1arrowheaddr

There are 20 horses in the KD, most races have 8-10. Of course the favorite will win fewer KD's than the average race.



Agreed. With 20 horses, there are a lot of traffic problems. Drawing the rail is almost impossible to overcome. And you give up a lot of ground when you draw real far outside.
treetopbuddy
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March 26th, 2014 at 8:59:48 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Agreed. With 20 horses, there are a lot of traffic problems. Drawing the rail is almost impossible to overcome. And you give up a lot of ground when you draw real far outside.



Drawing inside is tough. Look, what makes the Derby hard to handicap is your dealing with 3 year olds. Some are improving, some have already run their race, a couple are not feeling well, new jockeys on for the first time…….Most of the horses are shipped in from all over the country and sometimes the world. Nobody really knows how the horse is going to handle the track, crowd or getting dirt kicked in their face for the first time. Traffic is a big issue.

Most Derby contenders have had little or no blowback or dirt kicked in their faces. You would be surprised how many horses "spit the bit" the first time dirt hits them. Lots of horses "high heading" it….Just look at the horses after the race…..most appear to be a different color. Half, finish way down the track……yeah, the jocks stop riding some of them so may may live to battle again.

Luck is probably more of a factor in KD than any other race.
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ThatDonGuy
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March 26th, 2014 at 11:06:04 AM permalink
Quote: 1arrowheaddr

There are 20 horses in the KD, most races have 8-10. Of course the favorite will win fewer KD's than the average race.


Also, favorite is only in the eyes of the betting public. How many horses in a typical Derby field have raced 1 1/4 miles before then? How many have gone even 1 3/16? (Even for the ones that have, that's an extra 110 yards before the first turn that they're not used to.)

Question: which post position is "really" on the rail - i.e. which horse would be on the rail on the front stretch if it left the gate straight? Somewhere around 4 or 5, isn't it?
treetopbuddy
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March 26th, 2014 at 4:01:22 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Also, favorite is only in the eyes of the betting public. How many horses in a typical Derby field have raced 1 1/4 miles before then? How many have gone even 1 3/16? (Even for the ones that have, that's an extra 110 yards before the first turn that they're not used to.)

Question: which post position is "really" on the rail - i.e. which horse would be on the rail on the front stretch if it left the gate straight? Somewhere around 4 or 5, isn't it?



The "one hole" is slightly off the rail, so a horse that breaks straight and runs straight will find himself just off the rail.

The problem with the inside hole is that the field tends to collapse down to the rail therefore shutting off or trapping horses on inside. A real speedball from the inside can clear traffic but has to run wicked fractions to get the lead therefore toast when he hits the 1/2 or 1/4 pole.
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FinsRule
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March 26th, 2014 at 4:22:36 PM permalink
TTB, how close are you to Claiborne Farm?

We were too tired to go on our trip to Lexington 2 years ago. I really wanted to meet Blame...
Tomspur
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March 26th, 2014 at 5:18:19 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

TTB, how close are you to Claiborne Farm?

We were too tired to go on our trip to Lexington 2 years ago. I really wanted to meet Blame...



Me, I love horses more than I love my wife but I would dearly love to kick Blame where the sun don't shine :)

You know why

LOL
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JW17
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March 26th, 2014 at 5:39:52 PM permalink
Personally, this might be the worst, or let me say weakest, Derby in Years with all of the horses falling out due to injury.
treetopbuddy
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March 26th, 2014 at 5:56:39 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

TTB, how close are you to Claiborne Farm?

We were too tired to go on our trip to Lexington 2 years ago. I really wanted to meet Blame...



My farm was 15 minutes from Claiborne. Five minutes from Street Sense birthplace and 10 minutes from Big Brown's farm. I had to sell my farm:-( I loved Blame. I saw him run at at Pimlico on Preakness day. Told my girlfriend that he'll win Breeders Cup Classic if he gets in…..one of the few times I've been right about a horse. He really dug in against Zenyatta (sp)?.
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FinsRule
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March 27th, 2014 at 9:10:59 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Me, I love horses more than I love my wife but I would dearly love to kick Blame where the sun don't shine :)

You know why

LOL



Yeah, I felt that way too. Then I saw a piece on HRTV of someone who went out to Claiborne to visit him and saw that he was the nicest gentlest horse ever. Then I figured, any horse that could beat Zenyatta must be a hell of a great horse.

So we wanted to go to Claiborne, but we were just too tired after visiting all of the other landmarks to go.
1arrowheaddr
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March 27th, 2014 at 9:12:24 AM permalink
What are the chances Secretariat's Derby record is beaten this year?
treetopbuddy
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March 28th, 2014 at 6:45:43 AM permalink
Quote: 1arrowheaddr

What are the chances Secretariat's Derby record is beaten this year?



It's a 41 year old record….but records are make to be broken.. Monarchos missed by a 1/5 or 2/5 of a second in the early 2000's. If the track comes up super fast….who knows?
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speedycrap
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March 28th, 2014 at 8:09:37 PM permalink
So what is a good show bet please???
FinsRule
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March 29th, 2014 at 4:35:04 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

So what is a good show bet please???



For what?
FinsRule
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March 29th, 2014 at 4:36:09 PM permalink
Well, today didn't help clear anything up for me.

I did put $100 on Candy Boy at 13-1. If he runs 1-2 next Saturday, I'll be happy.
speedycrap
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March 29th, 2014 at 6:16:58 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

For what?

I want to bet on the Derby but on SHOW.
JW17
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March 29th, 2014 at 7:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I want to bet on the Derby but on SHOW.



pick your favorite number between 1 and 20 and then play it. Derby is not your typical horse race
speedycrap
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March 29th, 2014 at 7:45:21 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

pick your favorite number between 1 and 20 and then play it. Derby is not your typical horse race

Hahahaaaaaa
FinsRule
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March 29th, 2014 at 7:46:02 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I want to bet on the Derby but on SHOW.



You'll need to wait until posts are drawn.
speedycrap
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March 29th, 2014 at 7:51:43 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

You'll need to wait until posts are drawn.

waiting for your suggestion. Thanks.
FinsRule
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April 1st, 2014 at 2:31:57 PM permalink
Anyone have any thoughts on Social Inclusion?
JW17
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April 1st, 2014 at 4:42:55 PM permalink
Lets see what happens in the Wood. Maybe he was just a great speed horse on the speed favoring GP track. Or he might be the real deal. You ask me today, Im not betting him in the derby if he gets in
FinsRule
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April 1st, 2014 at 5:23:02 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

Lets see what happens in the Wood. Maybe he was just a great speed horse on the speed favoring GP track. Or he might be the real deal. You ask me today, Im not betting him in the derby if he gets in



But if you were allowed one horse to pick to win the Triple Crown, isn't he one of the two or at most three you'd pick?
Tomspur
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April 1st, 2014 at 5:30:08 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

But if you were allowed one horse to pick to win the Triple Crown, isn't he one of the two or at most three you'd pick?



Fin, you are going out on a limb here. You would want to see him stretch first and also see him at least rate on the front end. I think he got a very soft lead up front when beating Honor Code and we now know HC wasn't fully healthy either.

I would wait until after the Wood to label him. I think there are stronger closers who can take advantage of his speed in the Derby. I don't like speed in the Derby anyway.
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FinsRule
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April 1st, 2014 at 5:37:12 PM permalink
I just think only him and California Chrome have "triple crown" potential.
JW17
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April 1st, 2014 at 9:54:36 PM permalink
I will say I agree with you on California Chrome, I think he is going to be overlooked big time. California horses get no respect anymore. If Hopertunity runs well this weekend he will get all the pub
FinsRule
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April 1st, 2014 at 10:08:43 PM permalink
I am pretty sure the Derby winner races this weekend.
Tomspur
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April 2nd, 2014 at 1:02:19 AM permalink
I will ask again.....what do you guys think of Samraat?
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FinsRule
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April 2nd, 2014 at 2:51:27 AM permalink
I'd say he will be most overlooked come Derby Day. I have no idea if he is any good. New York has seemed to be the weakest circuit of recent years, and I think he is just hype. Count me as not a fan.
ThatDonGuy
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April 2nd, 2014 at 12:12:22 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

I will say I agree with you on California Chrome, I think he is going to be overlooked big time. California horses get no respect anymore. If Hopertunity runs well this weekend he will get all the pub


What are these "California horses" of which you speak? (Coming from somebody whose daily commute goes right by a track that hasn't been used in almost four years - seriously, the main track has turned into what is probably the only "natural" turf course left in California...)
treetopbuddy
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April 2nd, 2014 at 2:12:31 PM permalink
Look for the horse that moving up 7-10+ Beyers speed figs every race……the improving horse, the horse that has not run it's race yet……but then again I've picked one winner in 30 year so why listen to me?
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treetopbuddy
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April 3rd, 2014 at 8:05:58 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I will ask again.....what do you guys think of Samraat?



Samraat is unbeaten. What happens if he improves going forward? I never bet against undefeated horses unless of course it's their first race.:-).
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Tomspur
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April 3rd, 2014 at 8:40:15 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Samraat is unbeaten. What happens if he improves going forward? I never bet against undefeated horses unless of course it's their first race.:-).



I guess a lot of our questions will be answered on Saturday?

Let's see what comes of the Wood and then reconvene after :)
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Tomspur
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April 5th, 2014 at 2:52:00 PM permalink
All that result does is muddy the waters even more?

Wicked Strong looked very impressive but the race set up for a mid pack closer after the speed duel on the front end?

Let's wait and see what happens in the SA Derby.........
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beachbumbabs
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April 5th, 2014 at 3:01:11 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I guess a lot of our questions will be answered on Saturday?

Let's see what comes of the Wood and then reconvene after :)



Tomspur,

Have you called the meeting to order? lol...so what happened?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Tomspur
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April 5th, 2014 at 3:39:29 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Tomspur,

Have you called the meeting to order? lol...so what happened?



Wood won by Wicked Strong with Samraat 2nd and the chalk 3rd, Social Inclusion.

The SA Derby is about to run. I like the way Candy boy looks. Both him and California Chrome should be right there. no other dangers imo.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Tomspur
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April 5th, 2014 at 3:50:40 PM permalink
On that run California Chrome will be favorite for the Derby but just a word of caution.....the horses behind him today looked like optional claimers, and it wasn't CC who made them look that way.

If he starts at 5 or 6 to 1 he may be value otherwise, not for me.

Just didn't look a great field to me.
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JW17
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April 5th, 2014 at 4:08:54 PM permalink
California Chrome was very impressive, I thought Hoppertunity was going to make it a race and then CC took of, Espinosa didn't even touch him.

Field was better than you are giving it.
FinsRule
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April 5th, 2014 at 4:12:03 PM permalink
Well, we know who the favorite is for the Derby.
ThatDonGuy
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April 5th, 2014 at 6:05:23 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

California Chrome was very impressive, I thought Hoppertunity was going to make it a race and then CC took of, Espinosa didn't even touch him.

Field was better than you are giving it.


Aren't all California "dirt" tracks Poly? How much of a difference does that make?
Tomspur
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April 5th, 2014 at 6:38:09 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Aren't all California "dirt" tracks Poly? How much of a difference does that make?



No SA is proper dirt but the dirt at Churchill is much deeper and more demanding.....

I think he will be favorite but as I said, that field looked a little shallow to me.

Time will tell but i will be looking elsewhere
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FinsRule
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April 5th, 2014 at 8:23:56 PM permalink
Besides California Chrome, this year is wide wide open. Chrome will go off at 4-1, which is not a good price. So you have to pick against him. Im thinking the exotics will be paying a ton this year.
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