Sabretom2
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March 14th, 2014 at 5:05:48 PM permalink
California Crome, spread rating 107, thoughts?
treetopbuddy
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March 14th, 2014 at 5:19:09 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur


I don't like speed horses at Churchill Downs especially with it almost always inveriably being a little slow on the day due to seasonal rains in KY.
.



Wrong Mate. The track is set up to be lightning fast on Derby day. Even after seasonal rains the track plays fast. Speed horses typically don't do well because the jockeys, horses and crowd are so amped up that the early fractions are too fast . The speed horses find themselves hooked thus draining energy. The track does not play slow. Sorry.
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Tomspur
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March 14th, 2014 at 5:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Wrong Mate. The track is set up to be lightning fast on Derby day. Even after seasonal rains the track plays fast. Speed horses typically don't do well because the jockeys, horses and crowd are so amped up that the early fractions are too fast . The speed horses find themselves hooked thus draining energy. The track does not play slow. Sorry.



Ok, let me rephrase then......the speed horses do not hold up while running in the Derby. Bodemeister almost did it but he was left unchalleneged upfront and almost stole the race. Great ride by Mike Smith if I remember correctly?

Hope this clears it up. I'm not saying Churchill cannot have a speed bias, I'm merely saying that in the derby, speed horses very seldom win
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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March 14th, 2014 at 5:36:17 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Ok, let me rephrase then......the speed horses do not hold up while running in the Derby. Bodemeister almost did it but he was left unchalleneged upfront and almost stole the race. Great ride by Mike Smith if I remember correctly?

Hope this clears it up. I'm not saying Churchill cannot have a speed bias, I'm merely saying that in the derby, speed horses very seldom win



Your right speed horses don't do well in the Derby. Trust me when I say the track does have a speed bias for Derby day racing. The track is rock hard. .

War Emblem was the last horse to win gate to wire.......only a few in the history of the Derby have "wired" it.....even with a speed favoring bias. Again, the atmosphere it tough on the horses and jockeys.....they are taken out of their game.

It take a certain kind of horse to win in front of 130,000 screaming fans.
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Tomspur
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March 14th, 2014 at 5:44:30 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Your right speed horses don't do well in the Derby. Trust me when I say the track does have a speed bias for Derby day racing. The track is rock hard. .

War Emblem was the last horse to win gate to wire.......only a few in the history of the Derby have "wired" it.....even with a speed favoring bias. Again, the atmosphere it tough on the horses and jockeys.....they are taken out of their game.

It take a certain kind of horse to win in front of 130,000 screaming fans.



An I know I have just that kind of horse. He has been laid up for 2 weeks with a fever. I hope he can come back, earn some points and get a run!!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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March 14th, 2014 at 6:59:06 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

California Crome, spread rating 107, thoughts?



He seems to be the popular pick now. He's definitely one to look at come Derby week.
treetopbuddy
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March 15th, 2014 at 6:49:25 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Ok, let me rephrase then......the speed horses do not hold up while running in the Derby. Bodemeister almost did it but he was left unchalleneged upfront and almost stole the race. Great ride by Mike Smith if I remember correctly?



Poor Bodemeister ran his hair off twice….Derby & Preakness. Believe it or not it takes more courage for a horse to run on the front. Horses are more encouraged when they have a target to run at as they are herd animals….horses on the front have no target and are feeling some serious pain.

Who's your Derby horse or is it too early for you…..?
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treetopbuddy
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March 15th, 2014 at 7:02:51 AM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

California Crome, spread rating 107, thoughts?



Obviously a nice horse. Modest breeding with some stayers in his tail line. Looks like he can get the distance.
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FinsRule
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March 15th, 2014 at 7:37:31 AM permalink
Bodemeister ran the best Derby race since Barbaro. I am excited to see what he produces at stud.
treetopbuddy
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March 15th, 2014 at 8:29:23 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Bodemeister ran the best Derby race since Barbaro. I am excited to see what he produces at stud.



He was fully booked in 2013. His babies are hitting the ground now. He is everything the breeders are looking for…… He will only be booked to top class mares which ultimately makes the stallion. 30,000 a cover attracts only the best mares. He's very well bred.

Your right, he did all the heavy lifting in the Derby.
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FinsRule
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March 18th, 2014 at 9:31:30 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

I seldom bet on big race because I am not a good handicapper. Usually I bet on show just to collect a few dollars. I wonder what fellow members think of this year Kentucky Derby. Winner and a sure Shower.



At this moment, my pick is Candy Boy. Can get the distance, will have a good pace scenario. Top jock. I hope to get 15-1 on him next week.
Sabretom2
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March 18th, 2014 at 10:23:15 AM permalink
I need to see Cairo Prince one more time. A plan will start to come together then.
treetopbuddy
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March 18th, 2014 at 10:24:06 AM permalink
Like horses that prep at Oaklawn……Hoppertunity earned 100 beyers speed fig in winning Rebel.

I'll be releasing my Derby pick, the week of the Derby. I've picked one winner in 35 or so years, so my pick is a valuable throwout.
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Buzzard
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March 18th, 2014 at 11:02:41 AM permalink
Tough times for everybody !

Distorted Humor's fee for 2008 was $300,000—the same fee commanded by A.P. Indy and Storm Cat. Storm Cat is deceased; A.P Indy is pensioned. Due to the uncertain financial climate beginning in 2008, his fee was reduced to $225,000 for 2009 and $100,000 for 2011 where it remains for the foreseeable future.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
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March 18th, 2014 at 3:02:09 PM permalink
Storm Cat stood for 600,000 for 1 maybe 2 seasons, a couple at 500,000 and many at 300,000.

The Kentucky Hardboots don't pay the listed Stallion fees. It's an insiders game out here. Tapit for instance stands for 150,000. The 150,000 is just a number that's thrown out there. Just like Storm Cats 600,000. The stallion syndicates will do "mare shares" or "foal shares" and work deals out on the sale of the mare in foal or the weanling/yearling. The syndicates do get 150,000 on some breedings to Tapit but not as many as one would think. Some real nastiness goes on behind the scenes but this horse racing what else would one expect.

"Pinhooking" is not nearly as lively as it once was……hence stallion fees have fallen to more realistic levels. Some big buyers are out of the game which has also caused a reset in stallion fees. Vigorous breeding programs in states outside of Kentucky have put pressure on stallion fees.

What is most interesting about top stallion is that it might buy the buyer a 5-10% better chance of getting a good horse. A.P Indy, Distorted Humor, Storm Cat, Tapit, etc. have thrown plenty of bombs. The duds mysteriously never make it to the track, Where did they go?……some more nastiness.
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FinsRule
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March 18th, 2014 at 3:06:01 PM permalink
Treetop, are you saying that the duds owners get money back from the farms for NOT racing the duds? Never thought of that.
treetopbuddy
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March 18th, 2014 at 3:51:01 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Treetop, are you saying that the duds owners get money back from the farms for NOT racing the duds? Never thought of that.



Yeah……the top stallions are protected. Again, an insiders game. If horse can't run the breeder may get free breeding to subject stallion with different or same mare the following season or be offered free breedings to second line but quality stallions. The Jockey Club will get notice that horse died in a paddock accident, in the field, hit by lightning, etc. The insurance on the expensive horse will be taken off prior to it's demise. But not always.

Horses out of top class stallions that are poorly conformed never make it to the sales. That's not to say they can't run but they will never see the sales ring.

The fillys and their moms are protected. They are just listed in the sales book as unraced. Horsemen almost always know what they have well before the horse is entered into racing as a Juvenile or 3 year old.

You've probably noticed FinsRule that you don't see 10,000 claimers sired by A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Tapit, etc….they never get a chance to be claimers. Maybe 50,000 optional claiming races but that basically it….

Lots of insider nastiness.
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Buzzard
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March 18th, 2014 at 9:35:24 PM permalink
A pinhooker's dream come true :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyggMC85Zsg
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
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March 19th, 2014 at 5:23:00 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

A pinhooker's dream come true :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyggMC85Zsg



Yep, pinhookers dream. John Magnior and the Sheik got into a pissing contest. They no longer go at each other like they once did…..to the dismay of the Kentucky horse breeder.

This was a two year old in training sale where the horse went 9 and 4 for a furlong. It was learned later the The Green Monkey had quarter horse action in the rear. Best described as a circular motion, not linear…..good for 4-5 furlong races or running in circles which was his specialty. hehe
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Tomspur
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March 19th, 2014 at 6:12:53 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Poor Bodemeister ran his hair off twice….Derby & Preakness. Believe it or not it takes more courage for a horse to run on the front. Horses are more encouraged when they have a target to run at as they are herd animals….horses on the front have no target and are feeling some serious pain.

Who's your Derby horse or is it too early for you…..?



You know I still think we have not seen the best of Mexicoma but the problem is he missed two weeks due to a virus. He still needs points to qualify so Mattee will have to make some kind of a miracle happen.
i don't think honor Code's run behind that speed horse was too bad but I would need to see more.

i think Cairo Prince is about as serious a racehorse as I have seen so far this year. Samraat has done everything asked of him but I'm not wild on his action so we will have to wait and see.

We are getting into the meat of the season now so things will have to pan out rather quick from here. I still like Mexicoma even though he may be the perfect Belmont horse.......

Exciting times!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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March 19th, 2014 at 6:35:33 AM permalink
I've picked one winner in 35 years. Fusashi Pegasus…..went off at 9/5 or 7/5. I'm your go to guy if you want a solid throw out.

I won't bet on Mexicoma, Honor Code, Cairo Prince or Samraat…..so if you stay with those horses you should be O.K.
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beachbumbabs
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March 19th, 2014 at 8:06:09 PM permalink
I will be betting on Honor Code and Cairo Prince; the others I haven't decided yet. I called Honor Code in November and featured Cairo Prince but he remained a free agent. (Please don't mistake this for any kind of credible info; I'm riffing on a private bet with another member.)
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speedycrap
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March 19th, 2014 at 8:15:20 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I will be betting on Honor Code and Cairo Prince; the others I haven't decided yet. I called Honor Code in November and featured Cairo Prince but he remained a free agent. (Please don't mistake this for any kind of credible info; I'm riffing on a private bet with another member.)

Do you mind me asking. How much is the bet?
beachbumbabs
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March 19th, 2014 at 8:18:26 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Do you mind me asking. How much is the bet?



It's a complicated bet, but overall we have a bit less than $50 exposed. Small stakes.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
speedycrap
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March 19th, 2014 at 8:26:04 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

It's a complicated bet, but overall we have a bit less than $50 exposed. Small stakes.

That is what I like. Small stakes friendly bets.
Tomspur
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March 19th, 2014 at 8:32:08 PM permalink
I plan on taking both of your money but I will say this, even after I have taken your money, I will still buy both of you lunch when you come to Vegas again!!! :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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March 19th, 2014 at 9:04:22 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

https://secure.peta.org/site/Advocacy?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=5345

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/sports/peta-accuses-two-trainers-of-cruelty-to-horses.html?ref=sports&target=comments&_r=0#commentsContainer



The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.
speedycrap
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March 20th, 2014 at 5:39:47 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I plan on taking both of your money but I will say this, even after I have taken your money, I will still buy both of you lunch when you come to Vegas again!!! :)

Who are you referring to?????
Tomspur
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March 20th, 2014 at 5:56:26 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Who are you referring to?????



You and babs :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
beachbumbabs
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March 20th, 2014 at 6:20:21 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

You and babs :)



Well, I wasn't going to give you up, but now that it's out there...lol.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
speedycrap
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March 20th, 2014 at 6:23:06 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Well, I wasn't going to give you up, but now that it's out there...lol.

So, Tomspur is betting against me and Bab and maybe some more members.............
Ah !!!! Tomspur, I suggest you to cash in your retirement funds now..............
treetopbuddy
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March 20th, 2014 at 6:54:27 AM permalink
Quote: coilman

https://secure.peta.org/site/Advocacy?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=5345

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/sports/peta-accuses-two-trainers-of-cruelty-to-horses.html?ref=sports&target=comments&_r=0#commentsContainer



Having worked on the backside, I can say that sadly the PETA piece is accurate. Certainly not all trainers participate in the nastiness. Why is there a fence around the horse track? It's to keep the backside people from escaping. The backside is not for sissies.

Lance Armstrong's chemical regime was very similar the racehorse drug programs.

The motivation to win far exceeds the motivation to catch the cheaters.
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FinsRule
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March 20th, 2014 at 7:45:42 AM permalink
I worked at a track and went to the backstretch a few times. A different world, that's for sure.
Tomspur
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March 20th, 2014 at 5:45:43 PM permalink
Seems like Mexicoma has been taken off the Derby trail and will, exactly as I feared, rather be aimed at the Belmont Stakes........

Will have to now re-evaluate the field and see where I go from here.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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March 20th, 2014 at 6:33:54 PM permalink
As usual the 3 year olds are falling apart..... lots of injuries. Happens every year.

In the 60's the typical Derby horse and 20 plus starts going into the Derby. Now maybe 6 starts. Fragile horses.
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Tomspur
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March 20th, 2014 at 6:40:04 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

As usual the 3 year olds are falling apart..... lots of injuries. Happens every year.

In the 60's the typical Derby horse and 20 plus starts going into the Derby. Now maybe 6 starts. Fragile horses.



Here is my take and I will probably take a little bit of flack for this.

Because the horses are now so "sensitive" and "fragile" I feel that they are being forced to run too often and too early at 2. I have said it before, even these 3 year old triple crown races come too early in a horses developmental career. They need to grow their bone density and become fully grown into their frames. Only then can you expect these horses to remain sound for longer periods of time.
I believe that you absolutely can win a Derby while not having a run as a 2 year old. I know the oldies say you need to have a "strong base" therefore you need to have raced at two but I say bollocks to a barndance!!!

The biggest problem of course, is the lure of money!!! The earlier the horse starts off its career, the better chance you have of recouping some money. Also the juvenile and 3 year old races are simply too valuable to miss......

Kind of a catch 22 I know, but I would still not like to see horses run so early!!!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
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March 20th, 2014 at 7:51:52 PM permalink
Tom - it's a complicated issue. Your idea is good for the long term, and horse racing is terrible about long term thinking. Fans ultimately drive the sport, and the sport is not fan friendly.
Tomspur
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March 20th, 2014 at 8:20:23 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Tom - it's a complicated issue. Your idea is good for the long term, and horse racing is terrible about long term thinking. Fans ultimately drive the sport, and the sport is not fan friendly.



The sport is fan friendly, otherwise you and I would not be commenting on it :)

The problem is the fans have gotten used to seeing the early juveniles battle each other into the ground and then they are expected to still have enough gas in the tank to keep going through the Derby into the Preakness and then, low and behold, old sandy awaits them at a 1 1/2 miles, the longest race most of the will ever be expected to run......

I think people can be conditioned to change, but they must WANT to change first. :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2014 at 6:41:18 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Here is my take and I will probably take a little bit of flack for this.

Because the horses are now so "sensitive" and "fragile" I feel that they are being forced to run too often and too early at 2. I have said it before, even these 3 year old triple crown races come too early in a horses developmental career. They need to grow their bone density and become fully grown into their frames. Only then can you expect these horses to remain sound for longer periods of time.
I believe that you absolutely can win a Derby while not having a run as a 2 year old. I know the oldies say you need to have a "strong base" therefore you need to have raced at two but I say bollocks to a barndance!!!

The biggest problem of course, is the lure of money!!! The earlier the horse starts off its career, the better chance you have of recouping some money. Also the juvenile and 3 year old races are simply too valuable to miss......

Kind of a catch 22 I know, but I would still not like to see horses run so early!!!



We've had this debate before. You right, follow the money. At the horse sales buyers pay a premium for early foals by stallions that are known to produce early maturing speed horses. The breeders, breed brilliant speed to brilliant speed. Everybody wants the Derby horse. Two year old racing is lucrative.

Studies have shown that their is no appreciable difference in the number of catastrophic breakdowns in horses that started at 2 versus 3. The body has to take a pounding at some point. Humans don't start training for their sport after they are fully developed ……the training starts as soon as they can walk.

In the 60's the typical Derby horse had 20 starts before running in the Derby. Today maybe 6? Two year olds were trained hard and held together back in the day.

You can't be faulted for wanting the best for the horse.
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Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 5:08:46 PM permalink
Another one bites the dust.....Hoonor Code is off the trail with an injury.

Anybody have any new fancies after the Spiral this past week? Will We Miss Arty make the field?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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March 25th, 2014 at 5:39:25 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

https://secure.peta.org/site/Advocacy?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=5345

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/sports/peta-accuses-two-trainers-of-cruelty-to-horses.html?ref=sports&target=comments&_r=0#commentsContainer



Owner Ahmend Zayat takes his horses from Assmussen. Assumssen fires Blasi. Blasi belly kicks a horse. PETA only scratched the surface.
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Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 5:46:25 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Owner Ahmend Zayat takes his horses from Assmussen. Assumssen fires Blasi. Blasi belly kicks a horse. PETA only scratched the surface.



I think both of Assmussen and Blasi should be castrated. Blasi because he is an absolute evil human being and Assmussen because he oversaw the operation for such a long time while this was going on........

Zayat had no choice here.

Does he have a Derby horse this year Treetop (Zayat)?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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March 25th, 2014 at 5:47:06 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Another one bites the dust.....Hoonor Code is off the trail with an injury.

Anybody have any new fancies after the Spiral this past week? Will We Miss Arty make the field?



We Miss Arty has enough in graded stakes earning to make the field. The bigger question should probably be, will he hold together…….

The crystal ball guys will tell you that both of We Miss Arty's graded wins came on synthetic surfaces…..a far cry from the sand and silt at Churchill Downs.
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Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 5:50:53 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

We Miss Arty has enough in graded stakes earning to make the field. The bigger question should probably be, will he hold together…….

The crystal ball guys will tell you that both of We Miss Arty's graded wins came on synthetic surfaces…..a far cry from the sand and silt at Churchill Downs.



Two things....graded earings no longer make any difference but I'm sure he has enough points to be allowed a spot in the final 20.
Secondly, Animal Kingdom had never raced or won a race over dirt before capturing the Derby in 2011. I'm not suggesting We Miss Arty is AK but it has been done before.

I think Animal Kingdom was a true Triple Crown horse who could have gone super close had he not had some unbelievably bad luck as well as that nasty injury at Belmont.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
treetopbuddy
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:13:46 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Two things....graded earings no longer make any difference but I'm sure he has enough points to be allowed a spot in the final 20.
Secondly, Animal Kingdom had never raced or won a race over dirt before capturing the Derby in 2011. I'm not suggesting We Miss Arty is AK but it has been done before.

I think Animal Kingdom was a true Triple Crown horse who could have gone super close had he not had some unbelievably bad luck as well as that nasty injury at Belmont.



Yeah, I forgot their using a point system which seems to be more equitable.

Animal Kingdom was a special horse. He was foaled two miles from my farm in Paris, KY…..
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Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:17:36 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Yeah, I forgot their using a point system which seems to be more equitable.

Animal Kingdom was a special horse. He was foaled two miles from my farm in Paris, KY…..



Still my two biggest wins ever on races was the Derby in 2011 and when Animal Kingdom won the Dubai World Cup.

You are a lucky guy to be able to live in horse country. That is my dream :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
FinsRule
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:19:15 PM permalink
Everything I've heard says We Miss Artie is no AK.

I still like Candy Boy! I'll be putting money on him this week.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:26:39 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Everything I've heard says We Miss Artie is no AK.

I still like Candy Boy! I'll be putting money on him this week.



A little early to be comparing We Miss Artie to Animal Kingdom, don't you think? Remember the lowly horse than won 2013 Rebel? :-)

I like Candy Boy which means Candy Boy has zero chance of winning KD.
Each day is better than the next
Tomspur
Tomspur
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:29:13 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

A little early to be comparing We Miss Artie to Animal Kingdom, don't you think? Remember the lowly horse than won 2013 Rebel? :-)

I like Candy Boy which means Candy Boy has zero chance of winning KD.



Do you know what the favorites records are in the Derby? To me it seems that, the last few years anyway, the favorites struggle.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
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