Election Betting Odds
Quote: SOOPOOCan’t stop thinking about a Trump run for 2024.
Can anyone name a state Trump lost in 2020 that they actually think he will win in 2024?
Not sure what final tally was in 2020, but my window is open for Trump does over a million worse in popular vote than he did in 2020 if the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate him. Any takers?
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Considering how the pool of voters will have grown in the four years, that might not be such a good bet.
Quote: Ace2Large betting markets tend to be pretty efficient. But there can be bias such as the bias for NFL home favorites. I believe there is enormous bias against Trump (opponents despise him more than supporters back him) and therefore I believe betting on him is always a good value, as I did in the last two elections (net profit since 2016 odds were around 5:1 lol). This has nothing to do with political leanings, just like my NFL bets on road dogs have nothing to do with who I want to winQuote: SOOPOO[
If I wanted to say I’d bet my entire net worth, then that is what I’d say. Words have meanings. Look them up. Or if I meant it as a figure of speech I’d figure you could figure that out…. I’ve heard you yapping about other people offering to make a bet. Why don’t you offer up one? Or do you believe in NOTHING?
I’ve made the Wiz a bona fide offer. We will see if he accepts it.
Why don’t you at least weigh in? What do you think the odds are of Trump being our next President?
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Figure of speech. If someone says they put “every dollar they have” into the stock market, do you actually think they are referring to the spare cash in their wallet ? They mean everything they have
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I surrender! But my $486 included my bed side dresser drawer. And I did not include left over Euros, Canadian dollars, and, yes, leftover Jamaican currency!
I like your analysis. But I’ve been saying this for years…. Every year there will be more and more Democrats, due to illegals children coming of age. Due to the aging Republicans dying off. Due to the Republicans pissing off more and more of the electorate on social issues like Abortion…. So I think all things being equal (which they are NOT), it will be harder for a Republican to win than ever.
So I’ve made you an offer. Even money bet that Trump does at least 1 million votes worse in the General Election than he did in 2020? (By worse I mean he loses by 1 million more votes than he lost in 2020). Are you interested?
Also, if you want, pick ANY state that Trump lost in 2020 and I’ll bet Trump loses it in 2024. I think that gives you around 25 choices?
Projections have it at 221 to 214, +/- 2 seats.
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Democrats redrew the district lines for NYS and they were thrown out by a judge. So 4 democratic seats for NYS were lost by a judge, and that would have put the Dems at 218 in the House by now. Typically blue city centers upstate are now red. The next town over will be sure to have their Trump 2024 signs up ASAP.
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McCarthy could be 34 votes short of becoming House Speaker because of the Freedom Caucus from 2010. Rick Wilson says the CRAZIES will be running the House and McCarthy will find resistance futile.
Quote: SOOPOOBetfair apparently is not legal in my state.
I just went on betfair.com and get a blank page.
I think I’ll pass on betfair.
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Did you see my post where I offered to bet the other side?
Quote: Ace2Large betting markets tend to be pretty efficient. But there can be bias such as the bias for NFL home favorites. I believe there is enormous bias against Trump (opponents despise him more than supporters back him) and therefore I believe betting on him is always a good value, as I did in the last two elections (net profit since 2016 odds were around 5:1 lol). This has nothing to do with political leanings, just like my NFL bets on road dogs have nothing to do with who I want to winQuote: SOOPOO[
If I wanted to say I’d bet my entire net worth, then that is what I’d say. Words have meanings. Look them up. Or if I meant it as a figure of speech I’d figure you could figure that out…. I’ve heard you yapping about other people offering to make a bet. Why don’t you offer up one? Or do you believe in NOTHING?
I’ve made the Wiz a bona fide offer. We will see if he accepts it.
Why don’t you at least weigh in? What do you think the odds are of Trump being our next President?
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Figure of speech. If someone says they put “every dollar they have” into the stock market, do you actually think they are referring to the spare cash in their wallet ? They mean everything they have
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It was terrible value in 2020. Betting on republicans the last 3 elections 18, 20, 22 was terrible. I just disagree wholeheartedly with your premise.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOBetfair apparently is not legal in my state.
I just went on betfair.com and get a blank page.
I think I’ll pass on betfair.
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Did you see my post where I offered to bet the other side?
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I did. I made a real counter offer. You yourself figured out what fair odds would be. I offered you a tad better. It’s a few post back. And now right below….
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardLet the record show I'm making this prediction on Nov 15. About 45% of Republicans will faithfully sport Trump in the primaries. Meanwhile the other 55% is divided among two or more challengers, I'd guess Pence and DeSantis at this point. Trump wins the GOP primary. If forced to predict, he then loses the general election.
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I would bet every dollar I have that Trump is not the next President of the USA. I’d bet some dollars that he is not the nominee.
I’m more interested in how SchumerMcCarthy/Biden govern the next two years.
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Since I was taken literally, I just counted the dollars I have and it totals $486. When I made the statement, it was implied I’d be getting what the public would deem fair odds. I wasn’t going to bet ‘every dollar I have’ to win, say, $10. So if, as Mike says, fair odds is 18%, I’ll offer Mike this…. My $400 to his $75.
This is an extremely +EV bet for me. If Trump is re -elected my wife (and most everyone I know) would be so miserable I don’t think I’d notice the $400. If Trump is not re-elected I get a bonus of $75.
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I’m posting this here so Wiz can see my offer…
It’s made me money, but it’s your right to disagree .Quote: FinsRule
It was terrible value in 2020. Betting on republicans the last 3 elections 18, 20, 22 was terrible. I just disagree wholeheartedly with your premise.
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I’d consider taking the other side of a bet listed by one of the majors (Bovada, Betfair, Ladbrokes etc). The prices are quite similar though Betfair seems to have the tightest lines due to their pricing structure. If you have trouble getting to the betfair site, try Googling “betfair exchange” and see if that works. I like the British sites because they seem to have more exotic/strange bets than others. And for a regular sports event, there are seemingly endless wagers listed.Quote: SOOPOO[
So I’ve made you an offer. Even money bet that Trump does at least 1 million votes worse in the General Election than he did in 2020? (By worse I mean he loses by 1 million more votes than he lost in 2020). Are you interested?
Also, if you want, pick ANY state that Trump lost in 2020 and I’ll bet Trump loses it in 2024. I think that gives you around 25 choices?
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Quote: Ace2I’d consider taking the other side of a bet listed by one of the majors (Bovada, Betfair, Ladbrokes etc). The prices are quite similar though Betfair seems to have the tightest lines due to their pricing structure. If you have trouble getting to the betfair site, try Googling “betfair exchange” and see if that works. I like the British sites because they seem to have more exotic/strange bets than others. And for a regular sports event, there are seemingly endless wagers listed.Quote: SOOPOO[
So I’ve made you an offer. Even money bet that Trump does at least 1 million votes worse in the General Election than he did in 2020? (By worse I mean he loses by 1 million more votes than he lost in 2020). Are you interested?
Also, if you want, pick ANY state that Trump lost in 2020 and I’ll bet Trump loses it in 2024. I think that gives you around 25 choices?
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I tried their main website, betfair.com. I am not really looking to bet on politics. Other than with my friends here on WoV. I have more than I need on the 5 legal NYS sites I use.
I like the ‘interesting’ bets. That’s why I offered the million vote bet. And the ‘you pick a state bet’. They make you think outside the box. Much more interesting than ‘Trump or DeSantis nominee’ type bets.
Quote: SOOPOOMy $400 to his $75.
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I accept. Please confirm YOU are betting $400 on Trump to NOT win the general election, to win my $75.
Of course, in the event of a contested election, we go by who actually takes the oath office.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMy $400 to his $75.
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I accept. Please confirm YOU are betting $400 on Trump to NOT win the general election, to win my $75.
Of course, in the event of a contested election, we go by who actually takes the oath office.
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Accepted. As per all my bets here, I am leaving it up to you to remind me of the bet at its conclusion!
I have a question for you…. Will you be happier if you win or lose the bet?
Quote: SOOPOOI have a question for you…. Will you be happier if you win or lose the bet?
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Lose.
If the bet were made in a casino,you would lose the use of the money for the next two years. Instead, by betting with friends, you get to use that money for at least two years. Should that factor into what you consider a good value? Put that $400 into bonds today, and you'll have around $450 by the time you pay off if you lose.
Quote: rxwineI can't in good conscience vote for any person who appears to crave both power and adoration, far too much,. That in combination with way too much vindictiveness and who is often uncontrollable even among closest confidents.
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
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So, does your "good" conscience allow you to vote for someone who opens our borders to millions of illegals and provide free room and board, cell phones, education, medical care, to those who really don't want to become Americans? Imagine what those wasted tax dollars could do for our struggling populations of homeless and mentally challenged citizens. I suspect that most other nations put their citizens and country first. Do you not believe in "America First"? Is the U.S. the world's piggy bank?
p.s. Does your family come first or would you give strangers first call dibs on your personal assets to your own detriment?
tuttigym
Quote: billryanA question on the bet between Wizard and Soopoo.
If the bet were made in a casino,you would lose the use of the money for the next two years. Instead, by betting with friends, you get to use that money for at least two years. Should that factor into what you consider a good value? Put that $400 into bonds today, and you'll have around $450 by the time you pay off if you lose.
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But the $75 I’m gonna win will only be worth around $65 today factoring in inflation, so Mike is getting a bonus. Since I’m not going to lose I won’t calculate the savings I’d have paying in 2024 dollars.
I like Mike’s quick answer that he’d rather lose. If I bet $1k now on Bills to lose Super Bowl I’d be hoping I’d lose….
Quote: tuttigymQuote: rxwineI can't in good conscience vote for any person who appears to crave both power and adoration, far too much,. That in combination with way too much vindictiveness and who is often uncontrollable even among closest confidents.
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
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So, does your "good" conscience allow you to vote for someone who opens our borders to millions of illegals and provide free room and board, cell phones, education, medical care, to those who really don't want to become Americans? Imagine what those wasted tax dollars could do for our struggling populations of homeless and mentally challenged citizens. I suspect that most other nations put their citizens and country first. Do you not believe in "America First"? Is the U.S. the world's piggy bank?
p.s. Does your family come first or would you give strangers first call dibs on your personal assets to your own detriment?
tuttigym
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When are we going back to banning politics talk?
Quote: tuttigymQuote: rxwineI can't in good conscience vote for any person who appears to crave both power and adoration, far too much,. That in combination with way too much vindictiveness and who is often uncontrollable even among closest confidents.
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
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So, does your "good" conscience allow you to vote for someone who opens our borders to millions of illegals and provide free room and board, cell phones, education, medical care, to those who really don't want to become Americans? Imagine what those wasted tax dollars could do for our struggling populations of homeless and mentally challenged citizens. I suspect that most other nations put their citizens and country first. Do you not believe in "America First"? Is the U.S. the world's piggy bank?
p.s. Does your family come first or would you give strangers first call dibs on your personal assets to your own detriment?
tuttigym
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Democrats do not think the goals for the citizens and illegals are mutually exclusive. They will vote to spend enough money to accomplish both goals. The fact that it requires additional trillions of dollars in debt is not their concern.
I’d BET on it!
Quote: FinsRule
When are we going back to banning politics talk?
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Hopefully soon.
Senate and House are basically decided.
Not much more to talk about until the Presidential stuff starts picking up steam in '24.
Quote: billryanA question on the bet between Wizard and Soopoo.
If the bet were made in a casino,you would lose the use of the money for the next two years. Instead, by betting with friends, you get to use that money for at least two years. Should that factor into what you consider a good value? Put that $400 into bonds today, and you'll have around $450 by the time you pay off if you lose.
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I would say so, even though I wasn't the one asked.
I would also add that inflationary trends and purchasing power declining over time for a fixed amount of money are also considerations. What I mean by that is that the $400 has more purchasing power today than one would expect (exceptions are possible) that same amount of money to have in 2024, which might actually end up being 2025 if the Electoral College fails to produce a clear winner.
With that, you're basically giving the casino an interest-free loan (not that they actually need the money) of $400 for two years if the $400 side ends up winning. They are also holding money that is expected to have greater purchasing power now than it is expected to have when you get it back.
It's usually not going to be something that matters to most people or that most people are even really going to think about, but the presumed reduction to purchasing power for winning bets adds up if you make a lot of these sorts of bets that require putting the money down well in advance of resolution.
They say the State can't certify the whole election until the county sends in their vote.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: rxwineI can't in good conscience vote for any person who appears to crave both power and adoration, far too much,. That in combination with way too much vindictiveness and who is often uncontrollable even among closest confidents.
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
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So, does your "good" conscience allow you to vote for someone who opens our borders to millions of illegals and provide free room and board, cell phones, education, medical care, to those who really don't want to become Americans? Imagine what those wasted tax dollars could do for our struggling populations of homeless and mentally challenged citizens. I suspect that most other nations put their citizens and country first. Do you not believe in "America First"? Is the U.S. the world's piggy bank?
p.s. Does your family come first or would you give strangers first call dibs on your personal assets to your own detriment?
tuttigym
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Long explanation short. Sooner or later a person with that much lack of character, delivers his full potential for it. Ronald Reagan with lack of character would be dog crap. YMMV.
Are you saying there’s a risk-free way to earn 6% pa over the next two years? Where ?Quote: billryanA question on the bet between Wizard and Soopoo.
If the bet were made in a casino,you would lose the use of the money for the next two years. Instead, by betting with friends, you get to use that money for at least two years. Should that factor into what you consider a good value? Put that $400 into bonds today, and you'll have around $450 by the time you pay off if you lose.
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House Republicans have announced an investigation into the Biden family and their "business dealings," including the mythical laptop.
I, for one, am shocked at these allegations, and can state with absolute certainty that I will not be voting for Hunter Biden's laptop in any upcoming elections.
Furthermore, I am certain these investigations will help get inflation, gas prices, and healthcare costs under control.
Thank you for your service, GOP.
Quote: rxwineAnyone know what the odds offered of Trump becoming President that first day he announced years ago.
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According to this ESPN article from August 2015, in June of that year his odds were as high as 100-1, but dropped quickly just two months later to anywhere between 7-1 and 14-1. Hillary was sitting at 1-1 at this same time.
Source
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: tuttigymQuote: rxwineI can't in good conscience vote for any person who appears to crave both power and adoration, far too much,. That in combination with way too much vindictiveness and who is often uncontrollable even among closest confidents.
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
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So, does your "good" conscience allow you to vote for someone who opens our borders to millions of illegals and provide free room and board, cell phones, education, medical care, to those who really don't want to become Americans? Imagine what those wasted tax dollars could do for our struggling populations of homeless and mentally challenged citizens. I suspect that most other nations put their citizens and country first. Do you not believe in "America First"? Is the U.S. the world's piggy bank?
p.s. Does your family come first or would you give strangers first call dibs on your personal assets to your own detriment?
tuttigym
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Democrats do not think the goals for the citizens and illegals are mutually exclusive. They will vote to spend enough money to accomplish both goals. The fact that it requires additional trillions of dollars in debt is not their concern.
I’d BET on it!
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That is a great non-answer and very true. The GOP would like to believe they are the adults in the room with their "conservative" spending "ideas," but truth be told, they don't have the courage to stop or block budgetary massive continuing resolutions, omnibus bills, or anything that might reduce governmental programs.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOQuote: tuttigymQuote: rxwineI can't in good conscience vote for any person who appears to crave both power and adoration, far too much,. That in combination with way too much vindictiveness and who is often uncontrollable even among closest confidents.
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
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So, does your "good" conscience allow you to vote for someone who opens our borders to millions of illegals and provide free room and board, cell phones, education, medical care, to those who really don't want to become Americans? Imagine what those wasted tax dollars could do for our struggling populations of homeless and mentally challenged citizens. I suspect that most other nations put their citizens and country first. Do you not believe in "America First"? Is the U.S. the world's piggy bank?
p.s. Does your family come first or would you give strangers first call dibs on your personal assets to your own detriment?
tuttigym
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Democrats do not think the goals for the citizens and illegals are mutually exclusive. They will vote to spend enough money to accomplish both goals. The fact that it requires additional trillions of dollars in debt is not their concern.
I’d BET on it!
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That is a great non-answer and very true. The GOP would like to believe they are the adults in the room with their "conservative" spending "ideas," but truth be told, they don't have the courage to stop or block budgetary massive continuing resolutions, omnibus bills, or anything that might reduce governmental programs.
tuttigym
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Please tell me you are joking? You don’t remember them blocking the multi trillion dollar ‘Build Back Better’ bill that the Dems had to replace with one a quarter of its size (approximate)? And only because Manchin caved? And are you not aware the Democrats have used ‘reconciliation’ to pass the last trillion + in massive spending without a single Tepublican vote? Please….z
Quote: billryanA question on the bet between Wizard and Soopoo.
If the bet were made in a casino,you would lose the use of the money for the next two years. Instead, by betting with friends, you get to use that money for at least two years. Should that factor into what you consider a good value? Put that $400 into bonds today, and you'll have around $450 by the time you pay off if you lose.
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That absolutely plays into it for me. I've seen bets like Stormy Daniels will NOT be the next president, where you had to lay 99 (in advance) to win 1. In theory, a good bet, but when you consider the time value of money, it's terrible.
Quote: rxwineAnyone know what the odds offered of Trump becoming President that first day he announced years ago.
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When I created my Sports Futures Calculator, Trump was at 66 for 1 to just win the GOP primary.
Quote: WizardQuote: billryanA question on the bet between Wizard and Soopoo.
If the bet were made in a casino,you would lose the use of the money for the next two years. Instead, by betting with friends, you get to use that money for at least two years. Should that factor into what you consider a good value? Put that $400 into bonds today, and you'll have around $450 by the time you pay off if you lose.
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That absolutely plays into it for me. I've seen bets like Stormy Daniels will NOT be the next president, where you had to lay 99 (in advance) to win 1. In theory, a good bet, but when you consider the time value of money, it's terrible.
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Do you have a general formula or rule of thumb on this sort of thing, or is it a case-to-case situation?
However, for the most part, y'all have been pretty well behaved. I'm going to extend the right to make political statements in this thread only. I'd prefer comments be related to a bet, but it's not required. Remember that other forum rules still apply, especially the one against hate speech.
Carry on with what you were talking about.
Quote: billryanDo you have a general formula or rule of thumb on this sort of thing, or is it a case-to-case situation?
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Case to case.
Quote: TigerWuAnybody got any money on British Royal stuff, i.e., how long Charles will be King, whether he will abdicate or not, date of coronation, etc.?
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Around 1991, I bet my cousin that Charles would never take the throne. The bet was a gyro and fries in Bayville. I'm going to guess that would have cost around $6 back then. Cost me $15 last month.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOQuote: tuttigymQuote: rxwineI can't in good conscience vote for any person who appears to crave both power and adoration, far too much,. That in combination with way too much vindictiveness and who is often uncontrollable even among closest confidents.
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
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So, does your "good" conscience allow you to vote for someone who opens our borders to millions of illegals and provide free room and board, cell phones, education, medical care, to those who really don't want to become Americans? Imagine what those wasted tax dollars could do for our struggling populations of homeless and mentally challenged citizens. I suspect that most other nations put their citizens and country first. Do you not believe in "America First"? Is the U.S. the world's piggy bank?
p.s. Does your family come first or would you give strangers first call dibs on your personal assets to your own detriment?
tuttigym
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Democrats do not think the goals for the citizens and illegals are mutually exclusive. They will vote to spend enough money to accomplish both goals. The fact that it requires additional trillions of dollars in debt is not their concern.
I’d BET on it!
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That is a great non-answer and very true. The GOP would like to believe they are the adults in the room with their "conservative" spending "ideas," but truth be told, they don't have the courage to stop or block budgetary massive continuing resolutions, omnibus bills, or anything that might reduce governmental programs.
tuttigym
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Please tell me you are joking? You don’t remember them blocking the multi trillion dollar ‘Build Back Better’ bill that the Dems had to replace with one a quarter of its size (approximate)? And only because Manchin caved? And are you not aware the Democrats have used ‘reconciliation’ to pass the last trillion + in massive spending without a single Tepublican vote? Please….z
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I believe you have mis-read my post. The GOP ARE the Republicans. I do not remember the BBB. What was in it? As I stated, Trump and the GOP caved on at least two omnibus bills and reconciliation after a short pause in governmental doings.
tuttigym
Quote: billryanSen. Warnock just released a devastating ad. It's simply 30 seconds of Trump praising Walker. It doesn't add a word or attack either of them. It simply shows DJT singing praises of Walker. So simple and yet so elegant.
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s
That is awesome. I hope it works not because I care about Warnock or Walker, I just want other candidates to distance themselves from Trump
Quote: TigerWuAnybody got any money on British Royal stuff, i.e., how long Charles will be King, whether he will abdicate or not, date of coronation, etc.?
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If anybody is taking bets on the date of the coronation, bet the house, the car, and the things on May 6.
Parlay it to "no" on abdicating. Remember how his mother felt about her uncle abdicating, which is one of the reasons she didn't; I think he's the same way. Of course, the problem is, you have to wait until he dies before you can collect.
Quote: WizardI think it was episode 2 of season 5 of The Crown, where it was suggested Prince Charles leaked a story to the London Times that the Queen was thinking of abdicating. It was suggested on the show he thought the queen was getting too old and Charles would have been happy at the promotion to king. This would have been around 1995. Anyone know anything about that from the not so distant past?
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FWIW, both the Palace and (then) PM John Major vociferously deny any such meeting or conversation ever took place. Most historians also agree it never happened.In 1991, she was only 65-hardly too old to be monarch, even by the standards of the day.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: TigerWuAnybody got any money on British Royal stuff, i.e., how long Charles will be King, whether he will abdicate or not, date of coronation, etc.?
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If anybody is taking bets on the date of the coronation, bet the house, the car, and the things on May 6.
Parlay it to "no" on abdicating. Remember how his mother felt about her uncle abdicating, which is one of the reasons she didn't; I think he's the same way. Of course, the problem is, you have to wait until he dies before you can collect.
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What are the odds he'll need a Regent due to illness or incapacity?
With the Democrats having between 210-215 seats in the house, how hard could it be to pick off five moderate Republicans and vote in a Speaker that wants to do something Americans want? There have to be five Republicans who don't want the kiddies running the show.
.Quote: billryanInteresting thought.
With the Democrats having between 210-215 seats in the house, how hard could it be to pick off five moderate Republicans and vote in a Speaker that wants to do something Americans want? There have to be five Republicans who don't want the kiddies running the show.
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Another jokester! Which Republican wants ANY Democrat that will just advance the Democrat agenda…. the agenda they just campaigned against and WON! I can’t wait to see which 5 Republicans are voting for the New Democrat standardbearer, Hakeem Jeffries!
You ask how difficult? EXTREMELY difficult!
How about asking Sinema and Manchin to extract a lot of promises and vote for a Republican for Senate Majority Leader? Just as likely…
