Election Betting Odds
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:00:50 PM
permalink
If I was going to make one political bet based on the odds displayed on the main page here [https://www.electionbettingodds.com/] I would take the other side of Trump's 28% chance of winning the presidency.
At first glance, it's quite astonishing that the incumbent president and VP have only a combined 23% chance of staying in power. But given Biden's declining faculties and Kamala's unpopularity, Democrats are indeed likely to run an entirely different ticket for 2024. So I wouldn't bet on Biden or Harris.
I think Newsom's stock will rise. He may eventually flame out, but I suspect there will be enough buzz in the coming months to lift him well above 5%.
I think Trump's chances are overvalued at 28%. The 2016 memes are stale and he's burned too many bridges. DeSantis should emerge as the GOP frontrunner.
I'm also looking for Tim Scott or Larry Elder or some other black Republican to suddenly surge as a primary contender and potential VP pick. Previously, Herman Cain and Ben Carson came out of nowhere to become top-tier contenders. Black candidates command instant media attention and are pushed to the forefront by conservative talk show hosts who believe 'Democrats are the real racists' is a compelling message.
I'd wager the Senate will be either 50/50 or 51/49 in favor of the GOP. There are usually 1 or 2 Senate races that defy the odds. Possibly newcomer JD Vance in Ohio isn't as strong as he appears to be for Republicans. And Democrat incumbent Mark Kelley in Arizona may be vulnerable to an upset defeat with the governor's race there now trending Republican. Maybe Dr. Oz still has a shot in Pennsylvania.
At first glance, it's quite astonishing that the incumbent president and VP have only a combined 23% chance of staying in power. But given Biden's declining faculties and Kamala's unpopularity, Democrats are indeed likely to run an entirely different ticket for 2024. So I wouldn't bet on Biden or Harris.
I think Newsom's stock will rise. He may eventually flame out, but I suspect there will be enough buzz in the coming months to lift him well above 5%.
I think Trump's chances are overvalued at 28%. The 2016 memes are stale and he's burned too many bridges. DeSantis should emerge as the GOP frontrunner.
I'm also looking for Tim Scott or Larry Elder or some other black Republican to suddenly surge as a primary contender and potential VP pick. Previously, Herman Cain and Ben Carson came out of nowhere to become top-tier contenders. Black candidates command instant media attention and are pushed to the forefront by conservative talk show hosts who believe 'Democrats are the real racists' is a compelling message.
I'd wager the Senate will be either 50/50 or 51/49 in favor of the GOP. There are usually 1 or 2 Senate races that defy the odds. Possibly newcomer JD Vance in Ohio isn't as strong as he appears to be for Republicans. And Democrat incumbent Mark Kelley in Arizona may be vulnerable to an upset defeat with the governor's race there now trending Republican. Maybe Dr. Oz still has a shot in Pennsylvania.
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:44:19 PM
permalink
The link is malformed. Here is a working one.
As for the Republican nominee, you appear to be underestimating (a) Trump's ability to turn out his voter base, and (b) the possibility that the RNC will bend enough state's primary rules (e.g. to make the close Trump states "winner take all") to make it easier for him. I was one of those who felt for certain on election day in 2016 that Clinton would win, so I learned that lesson the hard way. Then again, "28% chance of being elected President" and "he won't be the Republican frontrunner" are two entirely different things.
As for the Republican nominee, you appear to be underestimating (a) Trump's ability to turn out his voter base, and (b) the possibility that the RNC will bend enough state's primary rules (e.g. to make the close Trump states "winner take all") to make it easier for him. I was one of those who felt for certain on election day in 2016 that Clinton would win, so I learned that lesson the hard way. Then again, "28% chance of being elected President" and "he won't be the Republican frontrunner" are two entirely different things.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:16:43 AM
permalink
Republicans are surging in battlegrounds PA, NV, GA, and AZ - now giving the GOP a 60% chance to win the Senate majority. If the momentum continues to grow, the GOP could also possibly win in NH - which would be the big surprise this year pollsters didn't see coming.
Bettors are still somehow figuring that Trump is the most likely person to be elected President in 2024. I still think Trump will crash. DeSantis at 18.5% has upside potential -- and strangely so do Biden and Harris at 17.2% and 4.8%, respectively. Pence at 2.9% has massive upside potential.
Bettors are still somehow figuring that Trump is the most likely person to be elected President in 2024. I still think Trump will crash. DeSantis at 18.5% has upside potential -- and strangely so do Biden and Harris at 17.2% and 4.8%, respectively. Pence at 2.9% has massive upside potential.
October 21st, 2022 at 6:53:28 AM
permalink
Friendly reminder that while discussing betting on politics is absolutely allowed, discussing politics is not. The posts above were fine. A good metric is a post should not betray the posters political opinions.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 21st, 2022 at 8:30:14 AM
permalink
I do not think that Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024.
I think it is either going to be Desantis or, less likely, Pence.
I'm kind of surprised that it seems like Biden is going to be the Dem's nominee, unless they're just pushing him to draw attention for as long as possible away from whomever the real candidate is going to be.
I also think Republicans are going to take the House and Senate next month.
I think it is either going to be Desantis or, less likely, Pence.
I'm kind of surprised that it seems like Biden is going to be the Dem's nominee, unless they're just pushing him to draw attention for as long as possible away from whomever the real candidate is going to be.
I also think Republicans are going to take the House and Senate next month.
October 21st, 2022 at 8:58:12 AM
permalink
Quote: TigerWuI do not think that Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024.
link to original post
I see the betting odds say Trump has 43.6% chance to win the GOP nomination. I wouldn't put them that high. I would bet on Trump at 2 to 1, but I know one could do much better on the open market, taking the other side.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 21st, 2022 at 9:11:23 AM
permalink
Quote: WizardQuote: TigerWuI do not think that Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024.
link to original post
I see the betting odds say Trump has 43.6% chance to win the GOP nomination. I wouldn't put them that high. I would bet on Trump at 2 to 1, but I know one could do much better on the open market, taking the other side.
link to original post
We should know how many delegates each state will get after the November 2022 elections (since one of the rules is, a state gets a delegate if it elected a Republican Senator at any time since 1/1/2018, and two if it elected two or more, and gets one if it had at least half of its House Representatives as Republicans in either the 2020 or 2022 elections). At that point, like I said earlier, it's up to the state parties to decide how to conduct their primaries; the only rule is, any primary/caucus before 3/15 must allocate delegates proportionally.
October 21st, 2022 at 9:30:43 AM
permalink
I'm surprised VA governor Glenn Youngkin isn't even registering in the odds.
After the election next month, there may be some new plausible candidates. JD Vance in Ohio has a lot of rural and populist appeal. Adam Laxalt and/or Joe Lombardo in Nevada could become rising stars in a state the GOP hopes to turn red.
I'm also curiously awaiting Tulsi Gabbard's next move. She ran as a Democrat last time around but has now ditched the party. Gabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries. I don't know if she'd run as a Republican, Independent, or possibly even Libertarian. I think many Republican voters would embrace her despite being a former Democrat (Trump was too - or at least he often supported Democrats).
After the election next month, there may be some new plausible candidates. JD Vance in Ohio has a lot of rural and populist appeal. Adam Laxalt and/or Joe Lombardo in Nevada could become rising stars in a state the GOP hopes to turn red.
I'm also curiously awaiting Tulsi Gabbard's next move. She ran as a Democrat last time around but has now ditched the party. Gabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries. I don't know if she'd run as a Republican, Independent, or possibly even Libertarian. I think many Republican voters would embrace her despite being a former Democrat (Trump was too - or at least he often supported Democrats).
October 21st, 2022 at 9:42:55 AM
permalink
Quote: JackSpadeGabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries.
link to original post
Yup, no idea what your political views are based on this completely unbiased statement.
/s
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 21st, 2022 at 9:49:34 AM
permalink
Quote: ams288Quote: JackSpadeGabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries.
link to original post
Yup, no idea what your political views are based on this completely unbiased statement.
/s
link to original post
Tulsi: "I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are hostile to people of faith & spirituality, demonize the police & protect criminals at the expense of law-abiding Americans, believe in open borders, weaponize the national security state to go after political opponents, and above all, dragging us ever closer to nuclear war."
"Under the guise of “gender affirmation” our kids are being put at risk by those pushing harmful, irreversible surgeries. We must protect our children."
https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard
I have thus accurately and objectively reported on her political views without urging you or anyone else here to agree with them.
October 21st, 2022 at 10:03:27 AM
permalink
Quote: JackSpade
I have thus accurately and objectively reported on her political views without urging you or anyone else here to agree with them.
link to original post
Your original comment was not phrased as an accurate and objective statement of Gabbard's views.
Not accusing you of anything, just saying your original comment was poorly worded if the intent was to simply put forth Gabbard's opinions.
October 21st, 2022 at 10:09:14 AM
permalink
Quote: JackSpadeGabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries.
link to original post
I knew it wouldn't take long for my warning to get ignored.
Official warning issued for making a political statement.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 21st, 2022 at 11:28:24 AM
permalink
Quote: WizardQuote: JackSpadeGabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries.
link to original post
I knew it wouldn't take long for my warning to get ignored.
Official warning issued for making a political statement.
link to original post
It was a statement about politics, not a statement of my politics.
However, I understand that certain terms are politically loaded and the language one chooses to use may implicitly give away one's ideological leanings. Some issues there is no getting around it. For example, no one on the right is going to use the term "undocumented immigrant" - and no one on the left is going to say "illegal alien." Also now whether or not you capitalize the 'b' in black or the 'w' in white when referring to people can be a political tell.
So I might have given away some information about my political views by way of my representation of Gabbard's views. I don't know if it's possible for me (or anyone) to completely avoid doing so when talking about politics.
What is possible is to avoid arguing about the merits of particular political viewpoints and to avoid unnecessarily making issues out of another person's phrasing. By singling out my statement for a warning, Wizard himself may be perceived as making a political statement.
He didn't have a problem with my opinion that Trump's odds were inflated (with which he agrees) or that Biden's and Harris' odds are possibly undervalued. Of course, that opinion has nothing to do with whether I would personally vote for Biden or Harris over Trump.
October 21st, 2022 at 11:36:06 AM
permalink
Quote: JackSpadeWhat is possible is to avoid arguing about the merits of particular political viewpoints and to avoid unnecessarily making issues out of another person's phrasing. By singling out my statement for a warning, Wizard himself may be perceived as making a political statement.
link to original post
If you wish to press charges on this, please file a complaint to any other moderator and I will accept whatever their ruling is.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 21st, 2022 at 12:02:22 PM
permalink
My political wager is that this thread doesn’t stay open through the midterm election.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:06:52 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardQuote: JackSpadeGabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries.
link to original post
I knew it wouldn't take long for my warning to get ignored.
Official warning issued for making a political statement.
link to original post
Quoting Tulsi Gabbard's political statement verbatim is a political statement itself.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 21st, 2022 at 12:24:35 PM
permalink
I'm betting a coup will start at 2 AM on November 9th.
"Meet the new coup....same as the old coup." - We Won't Get Couped Again!
"Meet the new coup....same as the old coup." - We Won't Get Couped Again!
October 21st, 2022 at 12:27:16 PM
permalink
Quote: ChumpChangeI'm betting a coup will start at 2 AM on November 9th.
link to original post
This thread is doomed.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
October 21st, 2022 at 12:35:06 PM
permalink
Quote: ChumpChangeI'm betting a coup will start at 2 AM on November 9th.
"Meet the new coup....same as the old coup." - We Won't Get Couped Again!
link to original post
I had a chicken coup at one time, or was it coop. I don't remember, lots of free eggs though.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 21st, 2022 at 12:35:42 PM
permalink
I've never made a political wager before but am looking to do so. I assume PredictIt is the best (only?) legal place for U.S. citizens to bet on political outcomes.
Unlike ElectionBettingOdds, it shows DeSantis being favored over Trump: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Given the pricing there, I think I'd rather bet No on Trump than Yes on DeSantis.
I don't know why no other Republicans are available for trading or why Pete Buttigieg is instead. I don't think his tenure as Transportation Secretary has done any good for his presidential prospects. I'd bet No on Pete and Yes on Gavin Newsom.
Unlike ElectionBettingOdds, it shows DeSantis being favored over Trump: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Given the pricing there, I think I'd rather bet No on Trump than Yes on DeSantis.
I don't know why no other Republicans are available for trading or why Pete Buttigieg is instead. I don't think his tenure as Transportation Secretary has done any good for his presidential prospects. I'd bet No on Pete and Yes on Gavin Newsom.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:45:35 PM
permalink
Quote: EvenBobQuote: ChumpChangeI'm betting a coup will start at 2 AM on November 9th.
"Meet the new coup....same as the old coup." - We Won't Get Couped Again!
link to original post
I had a chicken coup at one time, or was it coop. I don't remember, lots of free eggs though.
link to original post
It's The little Deuce Coupe, you don't know what I got!
October 21st, 2022 at 12:50:32 PM
permalink
Quote: EvenBobI had a chicken coup at one time, or was it coop. I don't remember, lots of free eggs though.
link to original post
Everyone's heard of a "baker's dozen" but have you heard of an "EvenBob Dozen?"
It comes with 14 1/2 eggs, and they're laid by a rooster.
October 21st, 2022 at 1:00:51 PM
permalink
Quote: unJonMy political wager is that this thread doesn’t stay open through the midterm election.
link to original post
I'd take the other side of your wager. It is a legitimate topic. And so far nobody is abusing the thread to post anything inflammatory or engage in political banter.
Personally, I would be pretty loose about allowing political statements in a thread specifically dedicated to election outcomes. Injecting talk about politics into a thread about roulette would be disrespectful to people who want to talk about roulette. But anyone who chimes in here should be prepared for things to potentially get political.
I predict that few if any people will be found to have made illegal comments in this thread. And furthermore that any action taken against them will not threaten the existence of the thread itself.
October 21st, 2022 at 1:19:42 PM
permalink
I dunno. As I recall, the 2020 election wagering thread didn't even make it to the Nevada primary.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
October 21st, 2022 at 5:08:38 PM
permalink
Quote: JackSpadeI don't think his tenure as Transportation Secretary has done any good for his presidential prospects.
link to original post
Political statement. Given a specific violation and warning just yesterday, three-day suspension.
As a reminder, you may state what you think are good bets in this thread, but you can't state reasons why.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 21st, 2022 at 5:14:45 PM
permalink
The most money I’ve ever wagered on a single outcome was Biden to win. Bovada was practically begging people to stop betting Trump and that just made more bet on him.
Anyway, nothing too great on bovada for midterms. I’d bet on Dems to win GA senate by less than 1% at +375, but I don’t know how runoff rules would work.
A lot of the senate stuff is down. Republicans at +110 was pretty good. If democrats can get into +120 or better, I’ll probably take a swing.
Anyway, nothing too great on bovada for midterms. I’d bet on Dems to win GA senate by less than 1% at +375, but I don’t know how runoff rules would work.
A lot of the senate stuff is down. Republicans at +110 was pretty good. If democrats can get into +120 or better, I’ll probably take a swing.
October 21st, 2022 at 5:19:23 PM
permalink
Kelly to win Senate at 54 cents on Predictit is probably where I am going to end up.
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:43:57 AM
permalink
Bovada has some odd choices for some of their Democratic Presidential nominees....
Hillary Clinton? Michelle Obama? AOC? Jon Stewart? Zero chance any of those people are running.
And Tulsi Gabbard? LOL
The Republican list is just as nonsensical....
Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, Jr., Jared Kushner, Kanye West.... LOL
It's like they just pull random names out of a hat.
There are some gems in the overall Presidential winner list, too, but I won't spoil it for you....
Hillary Clinton? Michelle Obama? AOC? Jon Stewart? Zero chance any of those people are running.
And Tulsi Gabbard? LOL
The Republican list is just as nonsensical....
Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, Jr., Jared Kushner, Kanye West.... LOL
It's like they just pull random names out of a hat.
There are some gems in the overall Presidential winner list, too, but I won't spoil it for you....
October 22nd, 2022 at 3:15:19 PM
permalink
Mark Cuban has said he would like to run for president but won't until he can convince his wife. Apparently, she doesn't like the spotlight.
If he ran, I would guess he would be the favorite.
If he ran, I would guess he would be the favorite.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 22nd, 2022 at 3:17:44 PM
permalink
I would "bet" for him.Quote: DRichMark Cuban has said he would like to run for president but won't until he can convince his wife. Apparently, she doesn't like the spotlight.
If he ran, I would guess he would be the favorite.
link to original post
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
October 22nd, 2022 at 3:23:37 PM
permalink
Bovada has Mark Cuban for President at +15000.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:12:14 AM
permalink
Quote: WizardQuote: JackSpadeI don't think his tenure as Transportation Secretary has done any good for his presidential prospects.
link to original post
Political statement. Given a specific violation and warning just yesterday, three-day suspension.
As a reminder, you may state what you think are good bets in this thread, but you can't state reasons why.
link to original post
It is of course within Wizard's purview to enforce the rules of the forum regardless of whether I agree with them. However, the circumstances that led to my suspension were were a direct result of Wizard's inconsistencies in communicating and applying those those rules.
I started this thread with a post in which I made note of "Biden's declining faculties and Kamala's unpopularity," argued Trump has "burned too many bridges," and suggested Tim Scott or Larry Elder might benefit from media attention.
Several days later, Wizard posted: "Friendly reminder that while discussing betting on politics is absolutely allowed, discussing politics is not. The posts above were fine." Wizard thus communicated that it was "fine" for me to bring up Biden's faculties, Harris's unpopularity, and Trump's burnt bridges in relation to their odds of becoming president.
I subsequently posted about Tulsi Gabbard's current political views. Wizard issued a warning, asserting my characterization of her views amounted to me "making a political statement."
I then posted about Pete Buttigieg's current job in relation to his odds of of becoming president - being careful to not bring up any of his political views. Wizard suspended me for that, posting: "As a reminder, you may state what you think are good bets in this thread, but you can't state reasons why."
Contrary to Wizard's "As a reminder" phrasing, a broad prohibition against "reasons why" had never previously been announced or enforced on this thread. In fact, I had stated multiple reasons why I favor betting on and betting against certain politicians in my initial post, which was approved by Wizard himself!
Based on Wizard's judgment that my initial post was "fine" it was reasonable for me to conclude that the rules allowed me to say something about why I don't think Buttigieg is a good bet and impossible for me to predict that Wizard would issue a blanket ban on explanations. It wasn't reasonable for Wizard to retroactively enforce what amounted to an abrupt rule change (i.e., an ex post facto law) by suspending my account.
I therefore charge Wizard with wielding his moderator powers in an arbitrary, capricious, and unfair manner. I appeal to other moderators to render a verdict.
October 24th, 2022 at 11:50:14 AM
permalink
Quote: JackSpadeQuote: WizardQuote: JackSpadeI don't think his tenure as Transportation Secretary has done any good for his presidential prospects.
link to original post
Political statement. Given a specific violation and warning just yesterday, three-day suspension.
As a reminder, you may state what you think are good bets in this thread, but you can't state reasons why.
link to original post
It is of course within Wizard's purview to enforce the rules of the forum regardless of whether I agree with them. However, the circumstances that led to my suspension were were a direct result of Wizard's inconsistencies in communicating and applying those those rules.
I started this thread with a post in which I made note of "Biden's declining faculties and Kamala's unpopularity," argued Trump has "burned too many bridges," and suggested Tim Scott or Larry Elder might benefit from media attention.
Several days later, Wizard posted: "Friendly reminder that while discussing betting on politics is absolutely allowed, discussing politics is not. The posts above were fine." Wizard thus communicated that it was "fine" for me to bring up Biden's faculties, Harris's unpopularity, and Trump's burnt bridges in relation to their odds of becoming president.
I subsequently posted about Tulsi Gabbard's current political views. Wizard issued a warning, asserting my characterization of her views amounted to me "making a political statement."
I then posted about Pete Buttigieg's current job in relation to his odds of of becoming president - being careful to not bring up any of his political views. Wizard suspended me for that, posting: "As a reminder, you may state what you think are good bets in this thread, but you can't state reasons why."
Contrary to Wizard's "As a reminder" phrasing, a broad prohibition against "reasons why" had never previously been announced or enforced on this thread. In fact, I had stated multiple reasons why I favor betting on and betting against certain politicians in my initial post, which was approved by Wizard himself!
Based on Wizard's judgment that my initial post was "fine" it was reasonable for me to conclude that the rules allowed me to say something about why I don't think Buttigieg is a good bet and impossible for me to predict that Wizard would issue a blanket ban on explanations. It wasn't reasonable for Wizard to retroactively enforce what amounted to an abrupt rule change (i.e., an ex post facto law) by suspending my account.
I therefore charge Wizard with wielding his moderator powers in an arbitrary, capricious, and unfair manner. I appeal to other moderators to render a verdict.
link to original post
Per your request, the matter will be discussed.
May the cards fall in your favor.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:33:07 PM
permalink
Quote: JackSpade
I therefore charge Wizard with wielding his moderator powers in an arbitrary, capricious, and unfair manner. I appeal to other moderators to render a verdict.
link to original post
LOL! You're funny
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 24th, 2022 at 1:52:21 PM
permalink
Quote: JackSpadeI therefore charge Wizard with wielding his moderator powers in an arbitrary, capricious, and unfair manner. I appeal to other moderators to render a verdict.
link to original post
Okay, you've had your say. I will let you have the last word on that. However, if you wish to drag other moderators into a suspension that has already been served, that is your right to ask them directly. My advice would be to let it go.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 24th, 2022 at 2:45:36 PM
permalink
Quote: JackSpade
I therefore charge Wizard with wielding his moderator powers in an arbitrary, capricious, and unfair manner. I appeal to other moderators to render a verdict.
link to original post
Following discussion, we believe the suspension to be valid.
There were two warnings issued.
JackSpade's posts seemed to be increasingly political after each warning.
Warnings should be seen as a 'wake-up call' to reduce the objectionability of posts.
May the cards fall in your favor.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:30:29 PM
permalink
This seems like an impossible topic to discuss in the given parameters.
It's hard to mention how odds can change without commenting on pending legislation, current events/controversies, experience of candidates or even who is (potentially) going to run for which party.
It would be like in the sports thread if you are allowed to mention upcoming games and the odds that are out there for the teams as a whole, but can't mention any player's history, teams' performances, player issues (such as legal or discipline that may suspend a player from a coming game) or coaching staff credentials.
This thread may as well be transferred to DT given the restrictions (or maybe the "Free Speech Zone" here with the understanding that more can be posted there within reason).
(I am not disagreeing with any mods or decisions made, I just think this topic is a can of worms where everyone will bush boundaries to justify posting some controversy, which will encourage others to bush boundaries. My prediction is if this thread stays open, the suspensions so far will not be the only ones.)
It's hard to mention how odds can change without commenting on pending legislation, current events/controversies, experience of candidates or even who is (potentially) going to run for which party.
It would be like in the sports thread if you are allowed to mention upcoming games and the odds that are out there for the teams as a whole, but can't mention any player's history, teams' performances, player issues (such as legal or discipline that may suspend a player from a coming game) or coaching staff credentials.
This thread may as well be transferred to DT given the restrictions (or maybe the "Free Speech Zone" here with the understanding that more can be posted there within reason).
(I am not disagreeing with any mods or decisions made, I just think this topic is a can of worms where everyone will bush boundaries to justify posting some controversy, which will encourage others to bush boundaries. My prediction is if this thread stays open, the suspensions so far will not be the only ones.)
October 24th, 2022 at 3:39:40 PM
permalink
Quote: GandlerThis thread may as well be transferred to DT given the restrictions (or maybe the "Free Speech Zone" here with the understanding that more can be posted there within reason).
link to original post
I have never had much success with the "take it to DT" suggestion. The Free Speech Zone ended a long time ago.
However, what do you think of a lifting of the "no politics" rule during an election season? Said lifting would be limited to just ONE thread about betting the election.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 24th, 2022 at 3:47:12 PM
permalink
Quote: Wizard
However, what do you think of a lifting of the "no politics" rule during an election season? Said lifting would be limited to just ONE thread about betting the election.
link to original post
Either ban election betting threads altogether, or at least allow for SOME leniency in discussion in that one specific thread.
I don't gamble on elections, so I'm fine with the former, but maybe put it up to a vote, because I'm sure some people will care.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:48:58 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardQuote: GandlerThis thread may as well be transferred to DT given the restrictions (or maybe the "Free Speech Zone" here with the understanding that more can be posted there within reason).
link to original post
I have never had much success with the "take it to DT" suggestion. The Free Speech Zone ended a long time ago.
However, what do you think of a lifting of the "no politics" rule during an election season? Said lifting would be limited to just ONE thread about betting the election.
link to original post
I honestly did not know that the free speech zone was off limits.
But, I think that would be a reasonable compromise if this thread remains open as is.
Of course, doing so will almost certainly make this thread the most active on here for several months at least (well actually probably for the next two years and beyond if you don't have strict timelines before and after elections), so you ultimately have to do what is best for the forum. You can always consider a "campaign sign rule" (the thread is open 180 days before a given election and closes 15 days after, or whatever timeline you think it best, that is just from my head, of course when you factor that some key States have runoffs -which will likely be in play-, this gets more complicated).
October 24th, 2022 at 3:53:11 PM
permalink
There are thousands of places to discuss politics. I'd prefer this didn't become one, but I'm just one voice in the wilderness.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:55:47 PM
permalink
Fivethirtyeight currently has Republicans a heavy favorite for the House and almost a tossup for the Senate, with Democrats barely the favorite.
Heck, that's way too long if you ask me. I'd say a month beforehand at most, and maybe two or three days afterwards to discuss results. That's plenty of time for all the juicy gossip.
Quote: Gandler
You can always consider a "campaign sign rule" (the thread is open 180 days before a given election and closes 15 days after, or whatever timeline you think it best, that is just from my head, of course when you factor that some key States have runoffs -which will likely be in play-, this gets more complicated).
link to original post
Heck, that's way too long if you ask me. I'd say a month beforehand at most, and maybe two or three days afterwards to discuss results. That's plenty of time for all the juicy gossip.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:29:25 PM
permalink
Quote: billryanThere are thousands of places to discuss politics. I'd prefer this didn't become one, but I'm just one voice in the wilderness.
link to original post
It used to be,
https://wizardofvegas.com/top/
Even now many of the top threads (after three years of being banned from additional comments) are still political threads.
When the issue was first announced (in 2019), virtually the whole first page of the top threads were political, so before 2019, this was the norm.
When threads that have not had a post since 2017-2019 are still in the top list, that does say something about demand. Three of the top ten threads are about just one candidate (still three+ years later). Five of the top ten are still about politics (after three years of a ban/lock).
That is why my prediction that if this thread does allow open political discussion, it will become the most popular thread (probably for the rest of WOV history if this is the only one), is one in which I feel confident in (especially if this becomes literally the only thread to discuss politics openly all of the activity in the prior threads will be channeled into one place).
But, this historically, is not as foreign of a concept to this forum as some people believe. Politics were heavily discussed for many years (I think one reason they were banned is because it became the Lionshare of forum activity to the point where it would often drown out gambling related threads).
I agree with the sentiment that politics need to be completely banned or in the threads related to election betting need to be allowed in moderation (because its too much of a gray zone otherwise). But, allowing discussion of political betting, without discussion of the rationale behind why such bets are made seems counterproductive.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:20:08 PM
permalink
Quote: Gandler
I honestly did not know that the free speech zone was off limits.
But, I think that would be a reasonable compromise if this thread remains open as is.
Of course, doing so will almost certainly make this thread the most active on here for several months at least (well actually probably for the next two years and beyond if you don't have strict timelines before and after elections), so you ultimately have to do what is best for the forum. You can always consider a "campaign sign rule" (the thread is open 180 days before a given election and closes 15 days after, or whatever timeline you think it best, that is just from my head, of course when you factor that some key States have runoffs -which will likely be in play-, this gets more complicated).
link to original post
One comment: The issue with political threads in WOV forums during these highly polarized times is the amount of viciousness in the posts as republican and democrats denounce each other and attempt to correct each other's "lies.' I'm not concerned about campaigning close to the elections, because it seems that no one is changing their political views based on these debates anyway.
Wizard's idea is intriguing: allow political discussion in the Election betting thread, only limited (within reason) to how issues are affecting the handicapping of the election and the perceived odds of winning elections. I would be willing to support such an experiment but I am fearful it might go off the rails quickly.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
October 24th, 2022 at 9:00:28 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardQuote: GandlerThis thread may as well be transferred to DT given the restrictions (or maybe the "Free Speech Zone" here with the understanding that more can be posted there within reason).
link to original post
I have never had much success with the "take it to DT" suggestion. The Free Speech Zone ended a long time ago.
However, what do you think of a lifting of the "no politics" rule during an election season? Said lifting would be limited to just ONE thread about betting the election.
link to original post
Hip hip hooray!
October 24th, 2022 at 10:21:15 PM
permalink
Quote: gordonm888I would be willing to support such an experiment but I am fearful it might go off the rails quickly.
link to original post
It will be over very quickly unless you lift all restrictions in the thread on political talk. You cannot have a discussion about the sausage without talking about how the sausage is made. Not possible.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
October 25th, 2022 at 12:47:35 AM
permalink
Quote: GandlerThis seems like an impossible topic to discuss in the given parameters. {snip}
This thread may as well be transferred to DT given the restrictions (or maybe the "Free Speech Zone" here with the understanding that more can be posted there within reason).
{snip}
link to original post
Agree--the two analogies offered (sports betting and sausage making) in downstream threads are apt. Even if you limit to events and polls, you're going to get consternation. You think dice setting stirs passions? This is 10 times more volatile.
I also know I am relatively new. WTH is "DT"? I thought I saw a Free Speech Zone a couple of months ago, but I can't find it
October 25th, 2022 at 3:50:56 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanThere are thousands of places to discuss politics. I'd prefer this didn't become one, but I'm just one voice in the wilderness.
link to original post
I concur with Bill
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
October 25th, 2022 at 4:01:06 AM
permalink
We should ask the Wizard if he believes the 2020 election was stolen like Trump and an entire political party believes. He was betting on Trump winning at the time. Did the wager outlets ever pay out on Biden winning or are they corrupted by Trump and are still withholding funds for the bettors who picked Biden to win?
Not sure if #BurnAdidas will be trending again on twitter today.
Not sure if #BurnAdidas will be trending again on twitter today.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 25, 2022
October 25th, 2022 at 4:21:33 AM
permalink
Quote: ChumpChangeWe should ask the Wizard if he believes the 2020 election was stolen like Trump and an entire political party believes.
Why would we care about any one individuals opinion?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
