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JackSpade
JackSpade
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
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October 2nd, 2022 at 1:00:50 PM permalink
If I was going to make one political bet based on the odds displayed on the main page here [https://www.electionbettingodds.com/] I would take the other side of Trump's 28% chance of winning the presidency.

At first glance, it's quite astonishing that the incumbent president and VP have only a combined 23% chance of staying in power. But given Biden's declining faculties and Kamala's unpopularity, Democrats are indeed likely to run an entirely different ticket for 2024. So I wouldn't bet on Biden or Harris.

I think Newsom's stock will rise. He may eventually flame out, but I suspect there will be enough buzz in the coming months to lift him well above 5%.

I think Trump's chances are overvalued at 28%. The 2016 memes are stale and he's burned too many bridges. DeSantis should emerge as the GOP frontrunner.

I'm also looking for Tim Scott or Larry Elder or some other black Republican to suddenly surge as a primary contender and potential VP pick. Previously, Herman Cain and Ben Carson came out of nowhere to become top-tier contenders. Black candidates command instant media attention and are pushed to the forefront by conservative talk show hosts who believe 'Democrats are the real racists' is a compelling message.

I'd wager the Senate will be either 50/50 or 51/49 in favor of the GOP. There are usually 1 or 2 Senate races that defy the odds. Possibly newcomer JD Vance in Ohio isn't as strong as he appears to be for Republicans. And Democrat incumbent Mark Kelley in Arizona may be vulnerable to an upset defeat with the governor's race there now trending Republican. Maybe Dr. Oz still has a shot in Pennsylvania.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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October 2nd, 2022 at 4:44:19 PM permalink
The link is malformed. Here is a working one.

As for the Republican nominee, you appear to be underestimating (a) Trump's ability to turn out his voter base, and (b) the possibility that the RNC will bend enough state's primary rules (e.g. to make the close Trump states "winner take all") to make it easier for him. I was one of those who felt for certain on election day in 2016 that Clinton would win, so I learned that lesson the hard way. Then again, "28% chance of being elected President" and "he won't be the Republican frontrunner" are two entirely different things.
JackSpade
JackSpade
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
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October 21st, 2022 at 12:16:43 AM permalink
Republicans are surging in battlegrounds PA, NV, GA, and AZ - now giving the GOP a 60% chance to win the Senate majority. If the momentum continues to grow, the GOP could also possibly win in NH - which would be the big surprise this year pollsters didn't see coming.

Bettors are still somehow figuring that Trump is the most likely person to be elected President in 2024. I still think Trump will crash. DeSantis at 18.5% has upside potential -- and strangely so do Biden and Harris at 17.2% and 4.8%, respectively. Pence at 2.9% has massive upside potential.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
October 21st, 2022 at 6:53:28 AM permalink
Friendly reminder that while discussing betting on politics is absolutely allowed, discussing politics is not. The posts above were fine. A good metric is a post should not betray the posters political opinions.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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October 21st, 2022 at 8:30:14 AM permalink
I do not think that Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024.

I think it is either going to be Desantis or, less likely, Pence.

I'm kind of surprised that it seems like Biden is going to be the Dem's nominee, unless they're just pushing him to draw attention for as long as possible away from whomever the real candidate is going to be.

I also think Republicans are going to take the House and Senate next month.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 21st, 2022 at 8:58:12 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I do not think that Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024.
link to original post



I see the betting odds say Trump has 43.6% chance to win the GOP nomination. I wouldn't put them that high. I would bet on Trump at 2 to 1, but I know one could do much better on the open market, taking the other side.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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October 21st, 2022 at 9:11:23 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: TigerWu

I do not think that Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024.
link to original post



I see the betting odds say Trump has 43.6% chance to win the GOP nomination. I wouldn't put them that high. I would bet on Trump at 2 to 1, but I know one could do much better on the open market, taking the other side.
link to original post


We should know how many delegates each state will get after the November 2022 elections (since one of the rules is, a state gets a delegate if it elected a Republican Senator at any time since 1/1/2018, and two if it elected two or more, and gets one if it had at least half of its House Representatives as Republicans in either the 2020 or 2022 elections). At that point, like I said earlier, it's up to the state parties to decide how to conduct their primaries; the only rule is, any primary/caucus before 3/15 must allocate delegates proportionally.
JackSpade
JackSpade
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
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October 21st, 2022 at 9:30:43 AM permalink
I'm surprised VA governor Glenn Youngkin isn't even registering in the odds.

After the election next month, there may be some new plausible candidates. JD Vance in Ohio has a lot of rural and populist appeal. Adam Laxalt and/or Joe Lombardo in Nevada could become rising stars in a state the GOP hopes to turn red.

I'm also curiously awaiting Tulsi Gabbard's next move. She ran as a Democrat last time around but has now ditched the party. Gabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries. I don't know if she'd run as a Republican, Independent, or possibly even Libertarian. I think many Republican voters would embrace her despite being a former Democrat (Trump was too - or at least he often supported Democrats).
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
October 21st, 2022 at 9:42:55 AM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

Gabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries.
link to original post



Yup, no idea what your political views are based on this completely unbiased statement.

/s
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
JackSpade
JackSpade
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
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October 21st, 2022 at 9:49:34 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: JackSpade

Gabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries.
link to original post



Yup, no idea what your political views are based on this completely unbiased statement.

/s
link to original post



Tulsi: "I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are hostile to people of faith & spirituality, demonize the police & protect criminals at the expense of law-abiding Americans, believe in open borders, weaponize the national security state to go after political opponents, and above all, dragging us ever closer to nuclear war."

"Under the guise of “gender affirmation” our kids are being put at risk by those pushing harmful, irreversible surgeries. We must protect our children."

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard

I have thus accurately and objectively reported on her political views without urging you or anyone else here to agree with them.

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