100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 23rd, 2026 at 9:59:06 PM permalink
From this thread:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gaming-business/mgm-mirage/42190-park-mgm-visit/#post977336

I was mesmerized by the drama of that failed unfinished hotel.
Structure problems, lawsuits flying, and then the 2008 housing/financial crash.
How will it be resolved?
But i got tired of the delays and court continuances.

Almost 20yrs later, that link reminded me to look it up.

But holy.. 20yrs has passed. In a few yrs, i'll be eligible for social security. (But i don't plan to collect till 70)
Time just flew. What the hell did I do in these 2 decades?

AP'ing is +ev to my bankroll but in the past yr it's been -ev to my life. I'm not enjoying it as much anymore.

I'm seriously thinking of following Wiz's footsteps and YOLO in Thailand and other 2nd world countries a few months at a time.
1st step is to fix up my house and sell it but i've been saying that since covid...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
ChumpChange
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April 23rd, 2026 at 10:24:01 PM permalink
Can you gamble in Thailand?

We are in WWIII right now and the world is running out of fuel.
EvenBob
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harrisDRichCalder
April 24th, 2026 at 6:55:47 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Can you gamble in Thailand?

We are in WWIII right now and the world is running out of fuel.
link to original post



LOL I actually laughed out loud. You must be a comedian.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DRich
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Calder
April 24th, 2026 at 4:26:42 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds



But holy.. 20yrs has passed. In a few yrs, i'll be eligible for social security. (But i don't plan to collect till 70)
Time just flew. What the hell did I do in these 2 decades?



I looked at it the opposite. Time is flying by so why would I want to continue working. I just turned 60 and am now counting down the days until I turn 62 so I can collect Social Security. I have worked pretty much full time for the last 42 years and look forward to having a few free years before I pass on.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
100xOdds
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April 24th, 2026 at 8:29:40 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: 100xOdds

But holy.. 20yrs has passed. In a few yrs, i'll be eligible for social security. (But i don't plan to collect till 70)
Time just flew. What the hell did I do in these 2 decades?


I looked at it the opposite. Time is flying by so why would I want to continue working. I just turned 60 and am now counting down the days until I turn 62 so I can collect Social Security. I have worked pretty much full time for the last 42 years and look forward to having a few free years before I pass on.
link to original post


Oh, I don't need social security to survive.
Of course it depends on my health.
break even point between taking at age 62 and 70 is 80yrs old.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
billryan
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April 24th, 2026 at 10:24:58 PM permalink
If you are due to get $2000 at full retirement age (67), you can go early at 62 and collect $1400, or delay collecting and get just under $2500.

More and more people are taking it at 62 and not waiting. You can retire at 62 and put the money into the market. If you invest the money for five years, you'll have 84,000 invested at age 67 plus five years of growth, so let's call it $120,000.
Are you better off collecting 2400 a month going forward or collecting $1400 and having $120,000 in the market?
Is waiting until 70 to collect $2500 better than getting $1400 and having $150,000 in the market? If you can get 8% interrest on your $150,000, your money will last forever, pay you a higher return than if you waited and leave your estate a tidy sum.
Let's remember that if you wait until you are 70 to collect, and die a year later, payments stop with you. If you retire early and die at 71, your loved one has your $150,000 market portfolio.

I strongly advise everyone to seek professional help when planning your retirment. It's very complicated, and mistakes aren't easy to correct. The biggest issue I had with taking early SS is that it is easy to exceed the income limits they impose, but that is a small inconvenience. I personally think not needing the money is the perfect reason to collect early.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
ChumpChange
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April 24th, 2026 at 11:49:49 PM permalink
Nationwide average rents are around $2,000 for a 1 bedroom apartment. Gonna need another $50K per year on top of a $2K/month SS check just to apply for an apartment.
AutomaticMonkey
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April 25th, 2026 at 12:53:47 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are due to get $2000 at full retirement age (67), you can go early at 62 and collect $1400, or delay collecting and get just under $2500.

More and more people are taking it at 62 and not waiting. You can retire at 62 and put the money into the market. If you invest the money for five years, you'll have 84,000 invested at age 67 plus five years of growth, so let's call it $120,000.
Are you better off collecting 2400 a month going forward or collecting $1400 and having $120,000 in the market?
Is waiting until 70 to collect $2500 better than getting $1400 and having $150,000 in the market? If you can get 8% interrest on your $150,000, your money will last forever, pay you a higher return than if you waited and leave your estate a tidy sum.
Let's remember that if you wait until you are 70 to collect, and die a year later, payments stop with you. If you retire early and die at 71, your loved one has your $150,000 market portfolio.

I strongly advise everyone to seek professional help when planning your retirment. It's very complicated, and mistakes aren't easy to correct. The biggest issue I had with taking early SS is that it is easy to exceed the income limits they impose, but that is a small inconvenience. I personally think not needing the money is the perfect reason to collect early.
link to original post



I very much agree and came to the same conclusions with the numbers. I'm maxxed out for contributions and I'll be taking it at 62. Now that my only work income is- you know... monkey business... I'm not too worried about hitting any thresholds with the SSA.
AutomaticMonkey
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April 25th, 2026 at 1:00:09 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Nationwide average rents are around $2,000 for a 1 bedroom apartment. Gonna need another $50K per year on top of a $2K/month SS check just to apply for an apartment.
link to original post



And what is that average when you exclude luxury buildings in exclusive neighborhoods?

"Average" in contexts like this is misleading. Average net worth? Take Elon Musk out of that average, and we're all a thousand dollars closer to the average. And that's just one rich stiff, and I guarantee you he won't be competing for apartments in the neighborhoods where you or I might live. For housing, you need "habitable," in a neighborhood where you are not a target for anything, and anything more than that is an option you alone have chosen and a sacrifice you alone must make.
ChumpChange
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April 25th, 2026 at 1:14:12 AM permalink
On $2,000/month, you need 3X the rent in income just to apply...so that'd be about $600 rent + $50 electricity. Millionaire slumlords may charge that in low income counties, but everybody else is trying to charge double that at least.
AutomaticMonkey
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April 25th, 2026 at 1:27:48 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

On $2,000/month, you need 3X the rent in income just to apply...so that'd be about $600 rent + $50 electricity. Millionaire slumlords may charge that in low income counties, but everybody else is trying to charge double that at least.
link to original post



Depends on where you are. That also assumes you will be living alone and have no investment or other income. So a husband and wife who both get $2K/mo. can afford a $1200 apartment, right?

You can get apartments for $600/mo. They won't be fancy, but who's entitled to fancy? I just did a apartments.com search and there are 11900 available apartments for $600 or less in the US just on that one site, and 52 of them are in Vegas.
ChumpChange
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April 25th, 2026 at 1:30:10 AM permalink
I went looking in the Twin Cities before the turn of the century and there were only 7. Most were $800+ and requiring more than a $25K/yr income.

Anyway Bror Fredrik recommends people get at least a $100K/yr income to live in Las Vegas as a single person because the cost of living has risen dramatically in the last half dozen years. Rents have doubled or tripled, and that sets the floor on how much you need.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Apr 25, 2026
AutomaticMonkey
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April 25th, 2026 at 1:37:01 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I went looking in the Twin Cities before the turn of the century and there were only 7. Most were $800+ and requiring more than a $25K/yr income.
link to original post



Good news, there are now 97. And that's after 25 years of inflation.

Did you, by any chance, limit your search to places where everybody's white? I've heard a lot of tiptoeing around that from the kiddies.

They say they can't afford an apartment/house. I say "Well what about this one? And this one? And this one?" The response is always "But... I can't live there! In THAT neighborhood! It's full of... full of... "

"Go ahead, say it, Dr. Schweitzer."
ChumpChange
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April 25th, 2026 at 1:39:18 AM permalink
TV reports at the time featured tenants whose apartments were not getting enough hot water heat and every complaint was met with worse outcomes.
billryan
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April 25th, 2026 at 2:00:30 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

On $2,000/month, you need 3X the rent in income just to apply...so that'd be about $600 rent + $50 electricity. Millionaire slumlords may charge that in low income counties, but everybody else is trying to charge double that at least.
link to original post



It depends on where you live. $800 a month gets you a lot more in Arizona than it does in New York. Tucson has several Senior housing complexes with rents of $600-$800 a month, including some shared units for low-income residents. There is a long waiting list to get in, upwards of three years, I'm told. I was advised to pony up the $50 for the initial application just in case.

There is a folk song where the songteller sings about going where the climate suits his clothes. We do what we must. I will say I could not live on my social security check. Possibly, if I took in a roommate or boarder. Five years ago, I sold something in return for 84 payments of $800. The payment runs out in less than two years, and I've yet to line up a replacement for that revenue stream. I'm hoping to let my IRA grow until I need to take Minimum payouts, but there is a gap of a little over a year I've yet to cover.
Luckily, I've got it all covered, but many people my age don't.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
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April 25th, 2026 at 3:44:44 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Nationwide average rents are around $2,000 for a 1 bedroom apartment. Gonna need another $50K per year on top of a $2K/month SS check just to apply for an apartment.
link to original post



I believe it is many peoples goal to have a paid off house by the time they retire so there would be no rent or mortgage. There is always still property taxes and insurance so nothing is completely free. Obviously, choosing a place with low property taxes becomes important.

I am currently considering Tennessee for retirement because there is no state income tax and low property taxes. Property taxes in Tennessee seem to be about 0.5%. So a comfortable $300k house would cost about $1500 a year in property tax. I am paying about $9000 a year in Florida.

I think a lot of people can survive on Social Security if they have a paid off house. My ss is scheduled to be $2700 a month if I collect at age 62. I can not sustain a lifestyle I would want on $2700 a month but that is why I saved a little for retirement.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
gordonm888
Administrator
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April 25th, 2026 at 3:54:51 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ChumpChange

Nationwide average rents are around $2,000 for a 1 bedroom apartment. Gonna need another $50K per year on top of a $2K/month SS check just to apply for an apartment.
link to original post



I believe it is many peoples goal to have a paid off house by the time they retire so there would be no rent or mortgage. There is always still property taxes and insurance so nothing is completely free. Obviously, choosing a place with low property taxes becomes important.

I am currently considering Tennessee for retirement because there is no state income tax and low property taxes. Property taxes in Tennessee seem to be about 0.5%. So a comfortable $300k house would cost about $1500 a year in property tax. I am paying about $9000 a year in Florida.

I think a lot of people can survive on Social Security if they have a paid off house. My ss is scheduled to be $2700 a month if I collect at age 62. I can not sustain a lifestyle I would want on $2700 a month but that is why I saved a little for retirement.
link to original post



I live in Farragut, Tennessee. In TN, there is both county property tax and city property tax; Farragut is the only town in Tennessee with no city property tax. My home's value is in the range of $700k to $800k and my property tax is $1,800/year. No state income tax, my home is paid for so no mortgage. Life is sweet.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DRich
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April 25th, 2026 at 4:22:14 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: DRich

Quote: ChumpChange

Nationwide average rents are around $2,000 for a 1 bedroom apartment. Gonna need another $50K per year on top of a $2K/month SS check just to apply for an apartment.
link to original post



I believe it is many peoples goal to have a paid off house by the time they retire so there would be no rent or mortgage. There is always still property taxes and insurance so nothing is completely free. Obviously, choosing a place with low property taxes becomes important.

I am currently considering Tennessee for retirement because there is no state income tax and low property taxes. Property taxes in Tennessee seem to be about 0.5%. So a comfortable $300k house would cost about $1500 a year in property tax. I am paying about $9000 a year in Florida.

I think a lot of people can survive on Social Security if they have a paid off house. My ss is scheduled to be $2700 a month if I collect at age 62. I can not sustain a lifestyle I would want on $2700 a month but that is why I saved a little for retirement.
link to original post



I live in Farragut, Tennessee. In TN, there is both county property tax and city property tax; Farragut is the only town in Tennessee with no city property tax. My home's value is in the range of $700k to $800k and my property tax is $1,800/year. No state income tax, my home is paid for so no mortgage. Life is sweet.
link to original post



That is awesome. Congratulations! Never heard of Farragut but I just Googled it and see it is near Knoxville. I like Knoxville but wife likes Chattanooga area better.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
lilredrooster
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April 25th, 2026 at 4:46:17 AM permalink
.
for me, and for a lot of people who are old and who are comfortable financially the great challenge is finding a way to continue to enjoy life
the days are very, very long when you're not working anymore
so many things fall into the "been there done that" category
I don't enjoy gambling anymore - I've done a ton of it in the past and what I could earn with what I'm willing to risk would not be significant
I've gotten back into spending a lot of time reading books
I love the great mystery writers, particularly Raymond Chandler and Elmore Leonard
I need to find some other things I enjoy greatly -
I do about 50 minutes of fast walking every day and that is a very good thing - for me anyway

as 100xOdds seemed to be implying - coming to grips with being old can be very difficult

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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April 25th, 2026 at 6:57:30 AM permalink
For me, the hardest part is the lack of structure. Retiring leaves a 50-hour-a-week void for most folks, and filling that time can be difficult. Sitting around watching YouTube or day drinking seems to fill the gap for many.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Nathan
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April 25th, 2026 at 10:07:37 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

For me, the hardest part is the lack of structure. Retiring leaves a 50-hour-a-week void for most folks, and filling that time can be difficult. Sitting around watching YouTube or day drinking seems to fill the gap for many.
link to original post



Something similar happened to Eugene Krabs in SpongeBob SquarePants. He sold The Krusty Krab and took a VERY early retirement and enjoyed retirement for around TWO DAYS before getting absolutely BORED and going back to work at The Krusty Krab as an Employee and not a Manager. He ended up buying The Krusty Krab back and becoming Manager/Owner again. 💡
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
EvenBob
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April 25th, 2026 at 10:30:48 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888



I live in Farragut, Tennessee. In TN, there is both county property tax and city property tax; Farragut is the only town in Tennessee with no city property tax. My home's value is in the range of $700k to $800k and my property tax is $1,800/year. No state income tax, my home is paid for so no mortgage. Life is sweet.
link to original post



Retiring with your house paid off is the best thing you can do for yourself. Self-employed forever, I planned my retirement long ago. This house was paid off in the late 1980s. I started collecting Social Security at 62 because it's just the best way to do it. Michigan has a homestead property tax credit and pays 90% of my property taxes. It's amazing the number of people who, at retirement, still are paying mortgages. That's really, really super dumb. Not paying anything for lodging means you can live on very little money if you have to.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
odiousgambit
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April 26th, 2026 at 4:50:47 AM permalink
You can never get rid of your house payments. Sure, you can change it from being monthly, but paying off your mortgage won't mean you have no more house payments
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
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April 26th, 2026 at 7:32:27 AM permalink
MY AC unit failed when I lived in Henderson. It was August, and my apartment complex paid for me and my dog to stay in a hotel for two nights while they installed a new unit. My out-of-pocket cost was zero.
When I bought my current house, it was sold as-is because the AC unit needed to be replaced. After much shopping around, I paid over $11,000 for a new unit and installation. Some of the quotes I recieved were almost double that.
The joys of home ownership.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
EvenBob
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April 26th, 2026 at 11:49:59 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You can never get rid of your house payments. Sure, you can change it from being monthly, but paying off your mortgage won't mean you have no more house payments
link to original post



It feels like I got rid of mine about 1988. Yup, definitely got rid of them. If you mean upkeep and maintenance those are not house payments. Spread over a few decades, they don't amount to diddly.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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April 26th, 2026 at 4:44:28 PM permalink
Quote: sfunk

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: odiousgambit

You can never get rid of your house payments. Sure, you can change it from being monthly, but paying off your mortgage won't mean you have no more house payments
link to original post



It feels like I got rid of mine about 1988. Yup, definitely got rid of them. If you mean upkeep and maintenance those are not house payments. Spread over a few decades, they don't amount to diddly.
link to original post



Do you ever get tired of posting things no one gives a shit about?
link to original post



People care about posts? Since when.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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April 27th, 2026 at 11:49:57 AM permalink
Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: billryan

If you are due to get $2000 at full retirement age (67), you can go early at 62 and collect $1400, or delay collecting and get just under $2500.

More and more people are taking it at 62 and not waiting. You can retire at 62 and put the money into the market. If you invest the money for five years, you'll have 84,000 invested at age 67 plus five years of growth, so let's call it $120,000.
Are you better off collecting 2400 a month going forward or collecting $1400 and having $120,000 in the market?
Is waiting until 70 to collect $2500 better than getting $1400 and having $150,000 in the market? If you can get 8% interrest on your $150,000, your money will last forever, pay you a higher return than if you waited and leave your estate a tidy sum.
Let's remember that if you wait until you are 70 to collect, and die a year later, payments stop with you. If you retire early and die at 71, your loved one has your $150,000 market portfolio.

I strongly advise everyone to seek professional help when planning your retirment. It's very complicated, and mistakes aren't easy to correct. The biggest issue I had with taking early SS is that it is easy to exceed the income limits they impose, but that is a small inconvenience. I personally think not needing the money is the perfect reason to collect early.
link to original post



I very much agree and came to the same conclusions with the numbers. I'm maxxed out for contributions and I'll be taking it at 62. Now that my only work income is- you know... monkey business... I'm not too worried about hitting any thresholds with the SSA.
link to original post



I will take it at age 62. I will be dead by age 70 if not then I will not make the basic payoff. This is one thing financial planners seem to ignore—do you think you will live that long?

Roddy Piper sai he would never make age 70 for his deferred retirement.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
billryan
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April 27th, 2026 at 12:22:44 PM permalink
If you live to collect at 62, chances are good you'll live to 80 or more. You've got to plan to avoid running out of money. Ideally, your passive income exceeds your expenses, so your nest egg will last forever. You need to factor in inflation and the inevitable uncovered medical expenses.
Do your research and figure out the number you need to live comfortably. Then add fifty percent. When you have that figure in hand, you can afford to retire. That number is more important than turning 62.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Hunterhill
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April 27th, 2026 at 2:43:15 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: billryan

If you are due to get $2000 at full retirement age (67), you can go early at 62 and collect $1400, or delay collecting and get just under $2500.

More and more people are taking it at 62 and not waiting. You can retire at 62 and put the money into the market. If you invest the money for five years, you'll have 84,000 invested at age 67 plus five years of growth, so let's call it $120,000.
Are you better off collecting 2400 a month going forward or collecting $1400 and having $120,000 in the market?
Is waiting until 70 to collect $2500 better than getting $1400 and having $150,000 in the market? If you can get 8% interrest on your $150,000, your money will last forever, pay you a higher return than if you waited and leave your estate a tidy sum.
Let's remember that if you wait until you are 70 to collect, and die a year later, payments stop with you. If you retire early and die at 71, your loved one has your $150,000 market portfolio.

I strongly advise everyone to seek professional help when planning your retirment. It's very complicated, and mistakes aren't easy to correct. The biggest issue I had with taking early SS is that it is easy to exceed the income limits they impose, but that is a small inconvenience. I personally think not needing the money is the perfect reason to collect early.
link to original post



I very much agree and came to the same conclusions with the numbers. I'm maxxed out for contributions and I'll be taking it at 62. Now that my only work income is- you know... monkey business... I'm not too worried about hitting any thresholds with the SSA.
link to original post



I will take it at age 62. I will be dead by age 70 if not then I will not make the basic payoff. This is one thing financial planners seem to ignore—do you think you will live that long?

Roddy Piper sai he would never make age 70 for his deferred retirement.
link to original post

I’m going to wait until 70 , 5 years to go. Based on my health and family history I think there’s a good chance that I will live to be 90 . Of course no one knows for sure.
Happy days are here again
AZDuffman
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April 27th, 2026 at 4:17:30 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: billryan

If you are due to get $2000 at full retirement age (67), you can go early at 62 and collect $1400, or delay collecting and get just under $2500.

More and more people are taking it at 62 and not waiting. You can retire at 62 and put the money into the market. If you invest the money for five years, you'll have 84,000 invested at age 67 plus five years of growth, so let's call it $120,000.
Are you better off collecting 2400 a month going forward or collecting $1400 and having $120,000 in the market?
Is waiting until 70 to collect $2500 better than getting $1400 and having $150,000 in the market? If you can get 8% interrest on your $150,000, your money will last forever, pay you a higher return than if you waited and leave your estate a tidy sum.
Let's remember that if you wait until you are 70 to collect, and die a year later, payments stop with you. If you retire early and die at 71, your loved one has your $150,000 market portfolio.

I strongly advise everyone to seek professional help when planning your retirment. It's very complicated, and mistakes aren't easy to correct. The biggest issue I had with taking early SS is that it is easy to exceed the income limits they impose, but that is a small inconvenience. I personally think not needing the money is the perfect reason to collect early.
link to original post



I very much agree and came to the same conclusions with the numbers. I'm maxxed out for contributions and I'll be taking it at 62. Now that my only work income is- you know... monkey business... I'm not too worried about hitting any thresholds with the SSA.
link to original post



I will take it at age 62. I will be dead by age 70 if not then I will not make the basic payoff. This is one thing financial planners seem to ignore—do you think you will live that long?

Roddy Piper sai he would never make age 70 for his deferred retirement.
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I’m going to wait until 70 , 5 years to go. Based on my health and family history I think there’s a good chance that I will live to be 90 . Of course no one knows for sure.
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Each his own. But I still think not enough people give thought to how long they will live. Besides not thinking I will make it in general, I am not going to spend my last years sick and fighting. I'd rather leave more money to the dog shelter than go thru chemo for example. I figure I will go in the late 2030s, right before the general population collapse starts, beating the rush.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
EvenBob
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April 27th, 2026 at 4:43:31 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Hunterhill

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: billryan

If you are due to get $2000 at full retirement age (67), you can go early at 62 and collect $1400, or delay collecting and get just under $2500.

More and more people are taking it at 62 and not waiting. You can retire at 62 and put the money into the market. If you invest the money for five years, you'll have 84,000 invested at age 67 plus five years of growth, so let's call it $120,000.
Are you better off collecting 2400 a month going forward or collecting $1400 and having $120,000 in the market?
Is waiting until 70 to collect $2500 better than getting $1400 and having $150,000 in the market? If you can get 8% interrest on your $150,000, your money will last forever, pay you a higher return than if you waited and leave your estate a tidy sum.
Let's remember that if you wait until you are 70 to collect, and die a year later, payments stop with you. If you retire early and die at 71, your loved one has your $150,000 market portfolio.

I strongly advise everyone to seek professional help when planning your retirment. It's very complicated, and mistakes aren't easy to correct. The biggest issue I had with taking early SS is that it is easy to exceed the income limits they impose, but that is a small inconvenience. I personally think not needing the money is the perfect reason to collect early.
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Always take it at 62. A math friend calculated about 15 years ago that if you wait till you're 70 you'll have to live to be 80 to get back the money you didn't get from 62 to 70. Best thing to do is at least invest some of the money you get at 62. Bill Ryan just said if you live to 62 the odds are really good that you'll live to be 80. That's just not true at all. At age 62 you've got about a 60% chance of hitting 80. Just take the money at 62 It's the best thing to do from every direction.

I very much agree and came to the same conclusions with the numbers. I'm maxxed out for contributions and I'll be taking it at 62. Now that my only work income is- you know... monkey business... I'm not too worried about hitting any thresholds with the SSA.
link to original post



I will take it at age 62. I will be dead by age 70 if not then I will not make the basic payoff. This is one thing financial planners seem to ignore—do you think you will live that long?

Roddy Piper sai he would never make age 70 for his deferred retirement.
link to original post

I’m going to wait until 70 , 5 years to go. Based on my health and family history I think there’s a good chance that I will live to be 90 . Of course no one knows for sure.
link to original post



Each his own. But I still think not enough people give thought to how long they will live. Besides not thinking I will make it in general, I am not going to spend my last years sick and fighting. I'd rather leave more money to the dog shelter than go thru chemo for example. I figure I will go in the late 2030s, right before the general population collapse starts, beating the rush.
link to original post

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ThatDonGuy
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April 27th, 2026 at 5:54:15 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

MY AC unit failed when I lived in Henderson. It was August, and my apartment complex paid for me and my dog to stay in a hotel for two nights while they installed a new unit. My out-of-pocket cost was zero.
When I bought my current house, it was sold as-is because the AC unit needed to be replaced. After much shopping around, I paid over $11,000 for a new unit and installation. Some of the quotes I recieved were almost double that.
The joys of home ownership.
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I also paid off my house - first, the one in California where I lived (I paid extra each month to pay off the mortgage two years early), then I paid cash for my house in Henderson.
Speaking of Henderson, ever since I moved in (about 9 months ago), I have had to:
* buy a new car (although I did get $20K for my old car that I sold in California just before moving - not bad for a 6-year-old car)
* replace the hot water heater
* repalce the microwave
* replace the range
* replace the furnace and AC, as well as the ductwork in the attic
and my refrigerator looks like it's about to go out any minute now; plus, I am seriously considering installing an electric car charger. (My current one plugs into a 120V outlet, and it takes 72 hours to go from empty to 100%, in part because Ford cars seriously slow down the charging speed once they reach 80%.)
Fortunately, thanks to a generous federal pension plus a 401(k)-type account that I have been feeding for 40 years, money is not particularly a problem.
You'll notice that I didn't mention Social Security; I'm not quite old enough yet, and besides, I'm planning on holding off until I'm 69.
billryan
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April 27th, 2026 at 6:49:08 PM permalink
My car goes from 50% to 80% in about 12 hours, but from 80% up it's a trickle. I rarely let it charge beyond 85% as I never need even that much range. 90% of my trips are within 50 miles of home.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AZDuffman
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April 28th, 2026 at 4:00:51 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy


I also paid off my house - first, the one in California where I lived (I paid extra each month to pay off the mortgage two years early), then I paid cash for my house in Henderson.



A piece of advice to all on this. If your house is paid off consider having either a HELOC on it or if we get crazy low rates again take a mortgage and put it is government or other ultra-safe stuff.

Here's the deal. Scammers go to the deed office and look for unencumbered properties and will target those for identity theft. You can have a mortgage placed and not even know it. This was even a "Law and Order" episode (aired when I was in HE mortgage training of all things!)

Other reason is if you have an escrowed mortgage your taxes and insurance payments will never be missed.

Just some free advice, worth what you are paying me for it......
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
odiousgambit
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April 28th, 2026 at 4:36:36 AM permalink
here's 11 reasons to always keep a mortgage

I'd say the only sound reason to do otherwise is that for so many people, it is the only financial goal they have, to pay of their home ... and everyone must have financial goals

https://www.edelmanfinancialengines.com/education/financial-planning/pay-off-mortgage/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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RogerKint
April 28th, 2026 at 4:53:58 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you live to collect at 62, chances are good you'll live to 80 or more.



I don't believe that at all. Way too many things to factor in to make that assessment.

What if you have a 60 year old male that has had 27 surgeries, a heart attack at 35 years old, smokes, drinks, is in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, and blood pressure as high as 251/153? I would not assume that individual is likely to make it to 80.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
DRich
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April 28th, 2026 at 4:58:11 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman



Other reason is if you have an escrowed mortgage your taxes and insurance payments will never be missed.



That has always been my thought on the matter. Pay down the mortgage such that it is so minimal it is almost irrelevant and let the mortgage company handle the taxes and insurance.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
Dieter
Administrator
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April 28th, 2026 at 5:11:24 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

If you live to collect at 62, chances are good you'll live to 80 or more.



I don't believe that at all. Way too many things to factor in to make that assessment.

What if you have a 60 year old male that has had 27 surgeries, a heart attack at 35 years old, smokes, drinks, is in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, and blood pressure as high as 251/153? I would not assume that individual is likely to make it to 80.
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Exactly. I doubt I'll see 70, much less 80. Many ancestors saw those ages, but they believed in clean living.
May the cards fall in your favor.
DRich
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April 28th, 2026 at 5:18:46 AM permalink
I remember my parents mortgage was either $67 a month or $82 a month depending on whether you included the escrow charges. Times were a little different back then.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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April 28th, 2026 at 5:47:36 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

If you live to collect at 62, chances are good you'll live to 80 or more.



I don't believe that at all. Way too many things to factor in to make that assessment.

What if you have a 60 year old male that has had 27 surgeries, a heart attack at 35 years old, smokes, drinks, is in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, and blood pressure as high as 251/153? I would not assume that individual is likely to make it to 80.
link to original post



I don't assume any individual will do anything. I know that the average male who reaches that age will live another 18 years or more. You are free to believe what you wish. It's easy to look up the life expectancy of an American male who will turn 62 this year.
If you believe you will underperform against your peers, find a way to profit from it. Load up on term insurance.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
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April 28th, 2026 at 6:20:31 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

If you live to collect at 62, chances are good you'll live to 80 or more.



I don't believe that at all. Way too many things to factor in to make that assessment.

What if you have a 60 year old male that has had 27 surgeries, a heart attack at 35 years old, smokes, drinks, is in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, and blood pressure as high as 251/153? I would not assume that individual is likely to make it to 80.
link to original post



I don't assume any individual will do anything. I know that the average male who reaches that age will live another 18 years or more. You are free to believe what you wish. It's easy to look up the life expectancy of an American male who will turn 62 this year.
If you believe you will underperform against your peers, find a way to profit from it. Load up on term insurance.
link to original post



54% of males that live to 62 will live to 80. I believe the break even point financially for collecting social security at age 62 is around 78. So if you believe you will live passed 78 it would be better to not start collecting at 62.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
odiousgambit
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April 28th, 2026 at 6:45:35 AM permalink
it's a crap shoot whether a healthy male at 62 will live to 80, but if you aren't healthy, it might be reasonable to assume not

as for keeping a mortgage, here is another myth: that you can lose your house due to a mortgage, especially today

Back in the early 20th century, people could lose their house due to a margin call on the loan, so that could be called losing one due to a mortgage.* Today this can't happen due to law, so the only reason you can financially lose your house is because you don't have the money to pay for one. That person had to get a mortgage, you see. Something happened for you to no longer have the income to pay that mortgage? You can lose the house, yes, but the fact is, you don't have the money yet again in that case as well. You can't blame the mortgage.

* though the fact that 'you didn't have the money' still holds, I'll still say this
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
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April 28th, 2026 at 7:01:31 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

If you live to collect at 62, chances are good you'll live to 80 or more.



I don't believe that at all. Way too many things to factor in to make that assessment.

What if you have a 60 year old male that has had 27 surgeries, a heart attack at 35 years old, smokes, drinks, is in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, and blood pressure as high as 251/153? I would not assume that individual is likely to make it to 80.
link to original post



I don't assume any individual will do anything. I know that the average male who reaches that age will live another 18 years or more. You are free to believe what you wish. It's easy to look up the life expectancy of an American male who will turn 62 this year.
If you believe you will underperform against your peers, find a way to profit from it. Load up on term insurance.
link to original post



54% of males that live to 62 will live to 80. I believe the break even point financially for collecting social security at age 62 is around 78. So if you believe you will live passed 78 it would be better to not start collecting at 62.
link to original post



That is if you spend the money. If you invest the money, it changes the formula bigly. If you start collecting at 62 and invest, you'll have something to leave your loved ones if you die at 66. If you hold off and die a few months before you collect, your family gets $255.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
EvenBob
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April 28th, 2026 at 11:57:56 AM permalink
This video is hilarious I watched it 4 times. This guy is supposed to be about 70 but this is how I imagine DRich is in real life. I love his computer setup from the early 2000s. Exactly what I had in 2002

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DRich
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April 28th, 2026 at 1:27:28 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

This video is hilarious I watched it 4 times. This guy is supposed to be about 70 but this is how I imagine DRich is in real life. I love his computer setup from the early 2000s. Exactly what I had in 2002


link to original post



Not bad. He appears much older than I think i look, but physically he looks in better shape than me. I am beginning to complain about the prices of everything. I just read today that the price for beach chairs at the beach we are going to is now up to $30 a day for two chairs.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
EvenBob
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April 28th, 2026 at 4:59:00 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

This video is hilarious I watched it 4 times. This guy is supposed to be about 70 but this is how I imagine DRich is in real life. I love his computer setup from the early 2000s. Exactly what I had in 2002


link to original post



Not bad. He appears much older than I think i look, but physically he looks in better shape than me. I am beginning to complain about the prices of everything. I just read today that the price for beach chairs at the beach we are going to is now up to $30 a day for two chairs.
link to original post



You live on a peninsula which has ocean on three sides of it. You have beaches people travel thousands of miles to get to. Yet you have to spend a ton of money to go to a beach in a foreign country where they're gonna treat you like a rich American. You are the guy in this video.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AutomaticMonkey
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April 28th, 2026 at 5:10:33 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

This video is hilarious I watched it 4 times. This guy is supposed to be about 70 but this is how I imagine DRich is in real life. I love his computer setup from the early 2000s. Exactly what I had in 2002


link to original post



Not bad. He appears much older than I think i look, but physically he looks in better shape than me. I am beginning to complain about the prices of everything. I just read today that the price for beach chairs at the beach we are going to is now up to $30 a day for two chairs.
link to original post



You live on a peninsula which has ocean on three sides of it. You have beaches people travel thousands of miles to get to. Yet you have to spend a ton of money to go to a beach in a foreign country where they're gonna treat you like a rich American. You are the guy in this video.
link to original post



That's like saying "You have a wife, but you still like hookers." Diversity, and uncommon experiences increase the enjoyment of life!
DRich
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April 28th, 2026 at 5:17:54 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob



You live on a peninsula which has ocean on three sides of it. You have beaches people travel thousands of miles to get to. Yet you have to spend a ton of money to go to a beach in a foreign country where they're gonna treat you like a rich American. You are the guy in this video.



Obviously, I don't have to spend a ton of money to go to other beaches. I prefer beaches with clear blue water and white sand, especially when they have pretty French waitresses in bikinis bringing my drinks and food right to my beach chair. If I could find that in Florida I would be very happy. Besides, from Florida it is not very expensive to go to the Caribbean. It will probably cost me about 7 days of wages for the three of us to spend a week in paradise.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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April 28th, 2026 at 5:24:19 PM permalink
The beaches in his part of Florida tend to run in a northerly direction, while his choice of St. Martin's shows his preference for beaches that are east-west oriented. When you work as hard as he does, why settle for anything less?
A friend is in the process of moving to the American Virgin Islands. According to him, it's slightly less expensive than Long Island.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
AutomaticMonkey
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RogerKint
April 28th, 2026 at 5:40:44 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The beaches in his part of Florida tend to run in a northerly direction, while his choice of St. Martin's shows his preference for beaches that are east-west oriented. When you work as hard as he does, why settle for anything less?
A friend is in the process of moving to the American Virgin Islands. According to him, it's slightly less expensive than Long Island.
link to original post



Yes, beaches in Florida go up and down, while Orient Beach goes from side to side. You know...
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