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BillHasRetired
BillHasRetired
Joined: May 7, 2022
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:27:31 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I haven't seen The Purge, but have you seen the armed militias intimidating people at the polls?
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Yes, Philadelphia, Nov 2008. Two people from a black nationalist group showed up outside a majority-minority polling location, waving AR-15 style long guns around. They were eventually arrested. Eric Holder's DOJ withdrew the charges with prejudice before conviction.

Voter intimidation isn't all on one side or the other, and neither are armed domestic agitators, either. Also, there is a significant distinction between bringing concealed carried weapons into a polling place and brandishing weapons outside a polling place. Both can be defined as "armed", but there's massive differences in the details.

Although it shouldn't need to be said (but this WoV, after all), someone brandishing a firearm outside (or inside!) a polling place should be arrested and prosecuted, whereas concealed-carry should be allowed as per the Bruen decision. I feel poll workers, especially, should be allowed to be armed.

An armed society is a polite society, for one is required to back up their manners with their life.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:33:35 PM permalink
Trump supporters convicted of taking guns to Philadelphia after 2020 election
Two men, who traveled in a Hummer bearing a QAnon logo, were convicted of gun charges and not guilty on three election-related charges.
The pair had faced three election-related charges: interference with primaries/elections, hindering performance of duty and conspiracy-interference with primaries/elections.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-supporters-convicted-bringing-guns-philadelphia-2020-election-rcna51983

LaMotta, as NBC News has reported, was arrested on separate charges in August after online sleuths spotted him in video that showed him inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Macias, who has not been charged in connection with the Capitol attack, was at a meeting between Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and Proud Boys head Enrique Tarrio in a Washington, D.C., parking garage the night of Jan. 5.

The pair, who traveled to Philadelphia in a silver Hummer bearing a QAnon sticker, were found to be carrying a Beretta 9 mm pistol and a concealed Beretta .40-caliber handgun while storing an AR-15-style weapon inside their truck, along with around 160 rounds of ammunition.
BillHasRetired
BillHasRetired
Joined: May 7, 2022
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:38:50 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I'll take a stab at staying on the straight and narrow...

If the over/under for the House was Republicans gain 16.5 seats, would you take over or under?

If the over/under for the Senate was Republicans gain 0.5 seats, would you take over or under?

If you think these numbers are crazy, what would you set the over/under at?

Think carefully
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RealClearPolitics numbers at this moment are HouseóR+29.5. SenateóR+3.
BTW, RCP is trying to clean up the pollsters' act by introducing a factor on oversampling, then correcting the poll's results using that factor and using that corrected result in coming up with these numbers.
BillHasRetired
BillHasRetired
Joined: May 7, 2022
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:42:48 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Musk Tells Bankers He Plans To Close Twitter Deal On Friday
RT: zerohedge @zerohedge 4h - Will all TWTR employees resign at midnight on Friday?

$TWTR Company fundamentals are deteriorating as the most active users leave the platform
Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-where-did-tweeters-go-twitter-is-losing-its-most-active-users-internal-2022-10-25/
These "heavy tweeters" account for less than 10% of monthly overall users but generate 90% of all tweets and half of global revenue.
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Fascinating re: Tweeter departure. What platform are they headed off to? Or are they changing their posting to 'long-form' posting, like Substack? If you want to monetize one's maunderings, that's the place to go. Maybe they got tired of being free content creators.

ETA: did you see the demand letter that Twitter employees sent to "Staff, Current and Future Management", where they demanded (!) no layoffs, retention of all employment benefits, and a whole host of other things? Knowing how takeover folks work, it's exactly like signing up to be laid off.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:43:50 PM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired

Quote: Gialmere

I'll take a stab at staying on the straight and narrow...

If the over/under for the House was Republicans gain 16.5 seats, would you take over or under?

If the over/under for the Senate was Republicans gain 0.5 seats, would you take over or under?

If you think these numbers are crazy, what would you set the over/under at?

Think carefully
link to original post


RealClearPolitics numbers at this moment are HouseóR+29.5. SenateóR+3.
BTW, RCP is trying to clean up the pollsters' act by introducing a factor on oversampling, then correcting the poll's results using that factor and using that corrected result in coming up with these numbers.
link to original post



RCP is a joke.

They have the GOP picking up the Michigan governorship.



Probably some money to be made there if you believe them and not every single poll released in the past few months!
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Gandler
Gandler
Joined: Jan 27, 2014
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:46:12 PM permalink
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3QXA0b81PU


This is an excellent video on election betting and how its significantly more accurate than polls and forecast groups.



Apparently, it illegal to bet on elections in the U.S. in the sense that no State will allow it (West Virginia briefly did for less than an hour, but only one legal bet was placed in that time). Some States even bar somebody who has bet on elections from holding or running for certain offices (something to consider).
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:47:53 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3QXA0b81PU


This is an excellent video on election betting and how its significantly more accurate than polls and forecast groups.



Apparently, it illegal to bet on elections in the U.S. in the sense that no State will allow it (West Virginia briefly did for less than an hour, but only one legal bet was placed in that time). Some States even bar somebody who has bet on elections from holding or running for certain offices (something to consider).
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I donít really want to watch the video, but didnít the betting markets think Hillary would win in 2016 and Donny would win in 2020?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:48:12 PM permalink
So the numbers flip with this election? Is that what I saw on TV this morning?


***************************************************************************************************
I believe the lefty tweeters are migrating to Tribel as we post. I think righties will be banned at Tribel quickly. I don't think Tribel has more users than Parler at this moment, they may be even, but things could change quickly.
***************************************************************************************************
Kornacki has a board he's explaining right now.
He's got 5 Democrat Senate seats and 5 GOP seats with the closest races.
Nevada could be overturned to GOP (Laxalt +0.8%) and PA could be overturned to Democrat (Fetterman +1.3%).
Next closest 4 Dems seats are Georgia (Warnock +0.5%), Arizona (Kelly +2.5%), New Hampshire (Hassan +3.6%), & Colorado (Bennet +7.5%)
Next closest 4 GOP seats are Ohio (Vance +2.0%), Wisconsin (Johnson +2.7%), North Carolina (Budd +3.7%), & Florida (Rubio +6.4%).
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Oct 25, 2022
BillHasRetired
BillHasRetired
Joined: May 7, 2022
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:54:24 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

{snip for clarity}
RCP is a joke.
They have the GOP picking up the Michigan governorship.

Probably some money to be made there if you believe them and not every single poll released in the past few months!
link to original post

This is why betting markets are starting to supplant sites like RCP, 538, Cooks, Sabato, etc, etc. Betting markets are where people back up their data & opinions with money.

Interesting ethical question: do any of these markets deter pollsters from participating in a betting market? I can see a legal case to be made if a poll is skewed so as to affect betting odds, allowing the pollster to clean up. Or one of the staff knowing what the poll shows, and betting before the release of said poll. I'm sure the SEC doesn't have jurisdiction. Who would?
Gandler
Gandler
Joined: Jan 27, 2014
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October 25th, 2022 at 5:55:01 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: Gandler

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3QXA0b81PU


This is an excellent video on election betting and how its significantly more accurate than polls and forecast groups.



Apparently, it illegal to bet on elections in the U.S. in the sense that no State will allow it (West Virginia briefly did for less than an hour, but only one legal bet was placed in that time). Some States even bar somebody who has bet on elections from holding or running for certain offices (something to consider).
link to original post



I donít really want to watch the video, but didnít the betting markets think Hillary would win in 2016 and Donny would win in 2020?
link to original post



Oh yes, he mentioned that and other mistakes. Betting markets do get it wrong. But, they get it wrong less than forecasters and polls.
It's never going to be 100% (if it was 100% it would not be worth taking bets). However, looking at all elections across the Nation (not just presidential) betting markets are a far superior indicator. Of course, the larger the election, the more curveballs can affect it (which is probably why Presidential elections are the most challenging to predict).

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