Election Betting Odds
Quote: JackSpadeWe'll see if Elon cares more about free speech than ad revenue. Woke corporations are pausing ads on Twitter until he agrees to put Woke activists back in charge of content moderation. If he doesn't overrule them and let Trump back on Twitter, then what was the point of buying the company? He always insisted it wasn't about the money.
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The whole thing is reminiscent of The Dearborn Independent.
Gonna be an interesting couple of years until 2024... Even more interesting if/when Trump/Desantis wins....
Quote: ChumpChangeManchin & Sinema are not Democrats despite their party affiliation. They count as Republican because of their donors and their voting record. Dems need 52 seats for a split Senate.
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Likewise, RINOs Murkowski and Collins will prevent conservatives from a having a majority in the Senate unless Republicans win at least 53 seats.
Sinema would likely win if she were up for re-election, Instead, Democrats are running Kelly who has been a party-line rubber stamp for Biden and could lose to a candidate backed by Ron Paul and Donald Trump. I am actually betting on Kelly to win, but only because his odds to win were being discounted at the time I wagered. It's effectively a coin flip.
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html
I think his actual chance is more like 25%!
It's too early for any candidate to be at 50%. Someone other than Trump or Desantis will surge at some point, though I think Desantis will ultimately win.
Quote: JackSpadeTrump surges to 50% chance of being GOP nominee:
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html
I think his actual chance is more like 25%!
It's too early for any candidate to be at 50%. Someone other than Trump or Desantis will surge at some point, though I think Desantis will ultimately win.
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I hope you are right, Jack. If Trump were to win, he would immediately become a "lame duck" president and not accomplish much but further create media and political chaos thus leaving the door open for another Biden like administration to further erode the country.
tuttigym
Quote:Spoiled people who have never seen war like to play dress up. If there is a civil war, they will be the first to pass away because Walgreens will run out of heart medicine.
LOL
Quote: TigerWuFivethirtyeight now has Republicans taking the Senate and House.
Gonna be an interesting couple of years until 2024... Even more interesting if/when Trump/Desantis wins....
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DeSantis will never run with Trump, it will be a Trump/Kari Lake ticket and she will be our first female president. DeSantis will never be elected president because everybody thinks he's going to be and that doesn't usually work.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuFivethirtyeight now has Republicans taking the Senate and House.
Gonna be an interesting couple of years until 2024... Even more interesting if/when Trump/Desantis wins....
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DeSantis will never run with Trump, it will be a Trump/Kari Lake ticket and she will be our first female president. DeSantis will never be elected president because everybody thinks he's going to be and that doesn't usually work.
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I wasn't clear... I meant to say Trump OR Desantis. I agree they won't be on the ticket together. But it's definitely going to be one of the two for the next President. GOP would be smart to go with Desantis to set him up for an eight-year run. Trump would only get another four.
Article
Link to the report
Quote:The Department of Homeland Security launched a failed operation that ensnared hundreds, if not thousands, of U.S. protesters in what new documents show was as a sweeping, power-hungry effort before the 2020 election to bolster President Donald Trump’s spurious claims about a “terrorist organization” he accused his Democratic rivals of supporting.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: ChumpChangeHe's a grifter losing millions a day from twitter.
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Hardly. When Jeff Bezos started Amazon he lost millions of dollars a year for years before he started making a profit and now look at it. They said he was nuts, for a while he was the richest man in the world nuts.
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No, he didn't. Amazon lost money, not Bezos. Musk is Twitter. When it loses money he loses money. After this deal, I suspect Musk is cash poor and will have to sell depressed Tesla stock to make up the difference.
Can you spell Waterloo?
Quote: billryan[ After this deal, I suspect Musk is cash poor and will have to sell depressed Tesla stock to make up the difference.
I suspect he will just spin off SpaceX stock and make another $100 billion.
I feel like I win when I lose
ABBA - Waterloo
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RT: Twitter shut its operations in Ireland today, putting (edit: up to 500) people out of work with no notice. Oops. Elon broke the Unfair Dismissals Acts 1977–2015. And the thing about Ireland…they ain’t the United States. They don’t slobber all over people for just being rich. Ugly.
“Any employee who believes that they have been unfairly selected for redundancy can be awarded up to two years’ pay by the Workplace Relations Commission.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/11/04/twitter-move-to-cull-staff-by-email-may-be-illegal-expert/
Dublin Twitter staff ‘should consider resigning’ in solidarity with those laid off, fired employees say
Quote: DRichQuote: billryan[ After this deal, I suspect Musk is cash poor and will have to sell depressed Tesla stock to make up the difference.
I suspect he will just spin off SpaceX stock and make another $100 billion.
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SpaceX would be better off without him.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: DRichQuote: billryan[ After this deal, I suspect Musk is cash poor and will have to sell depressed Tesla stock to make up the difference.
I suspect he will just spin off SpaceX stock and make another $100 billion.
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SpaceX would be better off without him.
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You may be right, but why would you think that? From everything that I have heard he is the one driving a lot of the inspiration of the company. My boss, who I respect greatly. has complete admiration for Elon and has spent lots of time with him at SpaceX.
Quote: DRich
You may be right, but why would you think that? From everything that I have heard he is the one driving a lot of the inspiration of the company. My boss, who I respect greatly. has complete admiration for Elon and has spent lots of time with him at SpaceX.
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I just say that because Twitter is a huge mess right now and Tesla doesn't look like it's doing too hot, either.
I could be wrong, of course.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: DRich
You may be right, but why would you think that? From everything that I have heard he is the one driving a lot of the inspiration of the company. My boss, who I respect greatly. has complete admiration for Elon and has spent lots of time with him at SpaceX.
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I just say that because Twitter is a huge mess right now and Tesla doesn't look like it's doing too hot, either.
I could be wrong, of course.
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I don't agree much with Elon's social commentary but it is hard to judge Twitter after only one week of him owning it. What he has done with Paypal, Tesla, and SpaceX are amazing in my opinion. I think it is likely that in 50 years he may be mentioned with the likes of Edison, Tesla, Ford and others.
Also, don't forget abut Blastar which he created and sold at the age of 12.
Quote: billryan
Can you spell Waterloo?
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LOL whatever. Musk is worth 220 billion dollars and absolutely knows what he's doing. How you figure he is cash poor is just a fantasy you're living in.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
Can you spell Waterloo?
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LOL whatever. Musk is worth 220 billion dollars and absolutely knows what he's doing. How you figure he is cash poor is just a fantasy you're living in.
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Didn't I hear something about him living in a trailer?
It's not a complete stretch of the imagination.
Quote: DieterQuote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
Can you spell Waterloo?
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LOL whatever. Musk is worth 220 billion dollars and absolutely knows what he's doing. How you figure he is cash poor is just a fantasy you're living in.
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Didn't I hear something about him living in a trailer?
It's not a complete stretch of the imagination.I understand he probably has other motivations as well.
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He lives in a trailer at SpaceX because he doesn't have time or interest in a multimillion-dollar home. Elon Musk has anti personal possessions because they take up too much time and he's a workaholic who doesn't take vacations. Scott Adams the Dilbert cartoonist has a podcast every day that I listen to and he has a 19000 square foot house in Northern California and he's constantly complaining about it. He says it takes up every spare second of this time outside of his work. Elon Musk does not want to have to deal with this so he doesn't have a house. Why is everybody so worried about him, he has 33 billion of his own money invested in Twitter but his personal net worth varies from 220 billion to 300 billion so even if he lost every single dollar he has invested in Twitter he would still have a couple hundred billion left over. But Twitter is not going to lose money, some people are saying eventually it will be making as much money for him as all of his other Investments.
Quote: @CaseyNewtonMultiple sources and Twitter Blind chats now saying that the company has begun to reach out to some people it laid off yesterday asking them to come back. Whoops!
lol. Hope they get a pay raise!
Quote: ams288Quote: @CaseyNewtonMultiple sources and Twitter Blind chats now saying that the company has begun to reach out to some people it laid off yesterday asking them to come back. Whoops!
lol. Hope they get a pay raise!
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According to Glassdoor.com "The lowest-paying job at Twitter is an Administrative Assistant with a salary of $70,294 per year."
"The Republicans are putting up a slate of election-deniers, crackpots, and crooks, and the Democrats have a guy who recently died of a stroke.
We’re not making fun, but if you saw that debate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz against John Fetterman — he did recently have a stroke, Fetterman, and he is still a little shaky. Neurologists call that condition ‘Herschel Walker.’"
Anyway, this is a gambling message board. Oz is a slight favorite over Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race. If anyone wants to bet on Oz I'll take it at even odds. I don't have much credibility here, but if I lose I can pay by Vemo, PayPal or CashApp.
If the loser doesn't pay within two weeks, they agree to be barred from the forum until the bet is settled.
Edit: I can't post a link to my picture here. Might be because I don't have enough posts.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/196835382@N07/52468210419/in/dateposted-public/
Why do you like Fetterman? What will you take in action?Quote: QuadrigaBill Maher derides both parties:
"The Republicans are putting up a slate of election-deniers, crackpots, and crooks, and the Democrats have a guy who recently died of a stroke.
We’re not making fun, but if you saw that debate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz against John Fetterman — he did recently have a stroke, Fetterman, and he is still a little shaky. Neurologists call that condition ‘Herschel Walker.’"
Anyway, this is a gambling message board. Oz is a slight favorite over Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race. If anyone wants to bet on Oz I'll take it at even odds. I don't have much credibility here, but if I lose I can pay by Vemo, PayPal or CashApp.
If the loser doesn't pay within two weeks, they agree to be barred from the forum until the bet is settled.
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Quote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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One of the better posts ever on this site.
Quote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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Together they almost make one whole person. Maybe they can team up together if they win and just cast one vote
Quote: EvenBobIn May the Democrat Senate passed a full-time all year long daylight savings time bill and sent it to the Democrat congress for approval. That was in May and so far the Democrat congress has not spent one second looking at this bill. For some reason they don't want to approve it. Well there's a 100% chance Congress is going to be Republican after January and we'll see what they do with it because I want it to pass. Means less hassle for me with my winter daylight savings time schedule. Which went into full effect today and I wish I'd never told my wife. At first she said it was a good idea but now she's jealous of me because she doesn't like driving at night so she has to be home by 5:30. On my schedule I can drive till 7:30. Of course this makes her angry that I can do something that she can't do. When will I ever learn not to tell my wife anything she doesn't need to know. Sigh..
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Just read an article about this yesterday. The bill is stalled in the House - not a left/right thing. More of a geographic thing.
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BREAKING: Facebook parent, $META, plans to begin laying off thousands of employees this week, per WSJ.
(Employees probably violate DeSantis Community Standards, or the reverse.)
Quote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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You mean that electing Joe and Kamala was the escalator of partisan political brilliance?
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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You mean that electing Joe and Kamala was the escalator of partisan political brilliance?
tuttigym
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Given the alternative, yes.
Quote: ams288Quote: tuttigymQuote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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You mean that electing Joe and Kamala was the escalator of partisan political brilliance?
tuttigym
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Given the alternative, yes.
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Partisanship is blind, isn't it?
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: ams288Quote: tuttigymQuote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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You mean that electing Joe and Kamala was the escalator of partisan political brilliance?
tuttigym
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Given the alternative, yes.
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Partisanship is blind, isn't it?
tuttigym
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I am still an advocate of not putting party affiliation on ballots.
Headline: Marjorie Taylor Greene says 'I'll be calling for a government shutdown' as crowd cheers.
(Putting the government permanently out of business seems to be the goal.)
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Some celebrities are parading around twitter with Elon's name as their name and telling followers to #VoteBlue! So Elon just tweeted this out.
Going forward, any Twitter handles engaging in impersonation without clearly specifying “parody” will be permanently suspended.
Previously, we issued a warning before suspension, but now that we are rolling out widespread verification, there will be no warning.
This will be clearly identified as a condition for signing up to Twitter Blue.
Any name change at all will cause temporary loss of verified checkmark
Trending reply: It's odd to have a stance on impersonation when you've completely invalidated actual verification coming from blue check marks.
🚨#BREAKING: Kathy Griffin has been permanently suspended from Twitter. After Elon Musk announced that twitter will permanently suspend users engaging in impersonation of others without clearly specifying “parody” accounts
RT: Elon Musk had suspended all decisions on moderation until his new committee met. But now he has just decided on permanent suspensions for anybody who impersonates/parodies Elon Musk!
There's still thousands of fake Trump twitter accounts out there.
I expect SNL to parody Musk & twitter next week.
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New Rule: Democracy's Deathbed | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO) - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKVBvooZ2c8
Quote: DRichQuote: tuttigymQuote: ams288Quote: tuttigymQuote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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You mean that electing Joe and Kamala was the escalator of partisan political brilliance?
tuttigym
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Given the alternative, yes.
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Partisanship is blind, isn't it?
tuttigym
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I am still an advocate of not putting party affiliation on ballots.
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I agree, but that will totally confuse the uninformed. CC's post below yours is a great example.
tuttigym
He’s really going through it…
Quote: AxelWolfWhy do you like Fetterman? What will you take in action?Quote: QuadrigaBill Maher derides both parties:
"The Republicans are putting up a slate of election-deniers, crackpots, and crooks, and the Democrats have a guy who recently died of a stroke.
We’re not making fun, but if you saw that debate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz against John Fetterman — he did recently have a stroke, Fetterman, and he is still a little shaky. Neurologists call that condition ‘Herschel Walker.’"
Anyway, this is a gambling message board. Oz is a slight favorite over Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race. If anyone wants to bet on Oz I'll take it at even odds. I don't have much credibility here, but if I lose I can pay by Vemo, PayPal or CashApp.
If the loser doesn't pay within two weeks, they agree to be barred from the forum until the bet is settled.
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One of the biggest offshore betting exchange now has Fetterman as a underdog at 2.5 decimal odds, which is +150 in the U.S. And the takeback on OZ is 1.5, which is -150. How about my $100.00 (for Fetterman) against your $115.00 (Oz). You're still booking me in this scenario. That's my final offer.
Quote: QuadrigaQuote: AxelWolfWhy do you like Fetterman? What will you take in action?Quote: QuadrigaBill Maher derides both parties:
"The Republicans are putting up a slate of election-deniers, crackpots, and crooks, and the Democrats have a guy who recently died of a stroke.
We’re not making fun, but if you saw that debate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz against John Fetterman — he did recently have a stroke, Fetterman, and he is still a little shaky. Neurologists call that condition ‘Herschel Walker.’"
Anyway, this is a gambling message board. Oz is a slight favorite over Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race. If anyone wants to bet on Oz I'll take it at even odds. I don't have much credibility here, but if I lose I can pay by Vemo, PayPal or CashApp.
If the loser doesn't pay within two weeks, they agree to be barred from the forum until the bet is settled.
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One of the biggest offshore betting exchange now has Fetterman as a underdog at 2.5 decimal odds, which is +150 in the U.S. And the takeback on OZ is 1.5, which is -150. How about my $100.00 (for Fetterman) against your $115.00 (Oz). You're still booking me in this scenario. That's my final offer.
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It’s a fair offer. If I understand Predictit right, to bet on Oz you bet $60 to win $40, which is -150. To bet Fetterman though, you bet $44 to win $56, which is +127. Quadriga is only asking for +115. I am interested in this race a lot! But don’t want to bet on it, as the thought of rooting for either one makes my stomach turn! Let’s see if Axel jumps in!
Quote: JackSpadeThe possibility of Herschel Walker and John Fetterman both winning their Senate races underscores the point that America's descent into a real-life version of Idiocracy is non-partisan phenomenon.
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John Fetterman as opposed to who---the carpetbagging quack TV doctor who only squeaked into the nomination because arguably the most divisive POTUS in all of American history endorsed him on the same ticket that is running the most right-wing politician (Mastriano) seen since Joseph McCarthy?
Anyway, even that doesn't matter because you're either voting for the blue stamp or the red stamp. What stamp color do you like? I figure Herschel Walker is going to be just as good at voting Republican party line as anyone else would be. The same goes with Fetterman and voting solid blue; he's far enough to the left that it's not as though he is going to break ranks on anything.
You are right, of course. Americans actually put more thought into these when they were at least glorified popularity contests. Now it's just, "Here-pick a color."
This is the electoral equivalent of "free roll" in gambling.
Quote: TigerWuHave there been any Democrats in the last, say, 20 years, that have refused to concede an election (either temporarily or permanently), on any level of government?
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While Kerry himself conceded, many Democrats contested the 2004 results in Ohio. Perhaps relevantly, Kerry did himself concede, the inside of the Capitol building was not trespassed (with mild destruction of property committed) by incensed Kerry supporters and Ohio flipping would have changed the outcome of the election...as opposed to there needing to be massive voter fraud in multiple states (i.e. no single state changes anything).
Point being, a few Democrats did officially object to the certification of Ohio's results. The Senate vote went 74-1 against and House vote 267-31 against.
https://ballotpedia.org/Main_Page
You may have additional local election dates or races that are not shown here. Ballotpedia provides information about all federal and state elections, including state ballot measures, plus comprehensive coverage of local elections for the largest 100 cities.
My sample ballot has 8 offices to choose from and 1 ballot measure. More local offices like Sheriff, Coroner, Mayor, City Council etc. not included. Recounts could happen.
Quote: GialmereA penciled in, one-week-out prediction...
Republicans will see a net pick up of +2 Senate seats, +27 House seats, and +3 Governorships.
Hmm... I see most late polls are breaking red but a few, like the NBC poll, are breaking slightly blue. The Pelosi story (the only October surprise) seems to have gotten little to no traction. Things look a bit rosier for team red in the House but I can't see them winning governor races in both Nevada and Oregon. So, a slight tweak for my final guess...
Senate: R+2
House: R+29
Governor: R+2
Assuming the polls are accurate (a big assumption these days) this guess is probably the best result team blue can hope for. Although they'll lose both the House and Senate, such a result would allow them to play the "standard midterm losses" card with plausibility. It wouldn't be much of a consolation prize but, such a spin might prevent the blame game from turning into a circular firing squad.
Quote: Mission146Quote: TigerWuHave there been any Democrats in the last, say, 20 years, that have refused to concede an election (either temporarily or permanently), on any level of government?
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While Kerry himself conceded, many Democrats contested the 2004 results in Ohio. Perhaps relevantly, Kerry did himself concede, the inside of the Capitol building was not trespassed (with mild destruction of property committed) by incensed Kerry supporters and Ohio flipping would have changed the outcome of the election...as opposed to there needing to be massive voter fraud in multiple states (i.e. no single state changes anything).
Point being, a few Democrats did officially object to the certification of Ohio's results. The Senate vote went 74-1 against and House vote 267-31 against.
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All the legal objections are fine with me until exhausted or one year, whichever comes first. After that, any utterance to contest should get you expelled from democracy, and cast adrift in the ocean.
A concession speech is the mature, adult way the loser should handle the post election result. Unfortunately, acting 'mature and adult' is not a requirement to run. (Zeldin is just a hypothetical example. I think I am actually going to vote for him, despite hating his 'Trumpism' and anti-abortion stances. I like most all of his platform planks, especially ending the cashless bail system.)
