Election Betting Odds
Quote: billryanThings are getting ugly here. This morning there were a dozen demonstrators. It's over 50 now and growing. State Troopers have joined the Sheriffs on site.
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AZ, NV, CO or somewhere else?
Speaking of flawed, Manchin & Sinema are trending for all the wrong reasons.
TV prediction: sanity will not return to the GOP in our lifetimes.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuFivethirtyeight now has Republicans taking the Senate and House.
Gonna be an interesting couple of years until 2024... Even more interesting if/when Trump/Desantis wins....
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DeSantis will never run with Trump, it will be a Trump/Kari Lake ticket and she will be our first female president. DeSantis will never be elected president because everybody thinks he's going to be and that doesn't usually work.
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Our first female president? Prolly should focus on winning at least one race first.
The Fat Lady is ready to go to work.
Kari Lake was supposed to be the next GOP star…
Quote: ams288NBC calls the AZ gov race for Dem Katie Hobbs.
Kari Lake was supposed to be the next GOP star…
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Big exploding ball of gas?
".Arizona knows BS when it sees it"
As one could guess, many people agree and retweeted it, saying this is why they didn't vote for her.
Lake lost by some 25,0000 votes. Since 2015, approx. 75,0000 Californians and New Yorkers have moved to Arizona.
You are welcome.
Quote: billryanKari Lake has yet to concede and send out this tweet
".Arizona knows BS when it sees it"
As one could guess, many people agree and retweeted it, saying this is why they didn't vote for her.
Lake lost by some 25,0000 votes. Since 2015, approx. 75,0000 Californians and New Yorkers have moved to Arizona.
You are welcome.
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You are having a problem with zeroes.
How is this even remotely possible?
Quote: SOOPOOThere are districts in California that as of now, a full week after the election, have counted LESS THAN HALF of the votes!
How is this even remotely possible?
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COVID. They closed the schools and did not teach how to count. When the schools fully re-open, the counting will begin.
tuttigym
Is there any plausible scenario (not involving his theoretical indictment, imprisonment, or death) where he loses the Republican nomination and concedes gracefully?
Quote: ams288Donny announcing his 2024 candidacy tonight.
Is there any plausible scenario (not involving his theoretical indictment, imprisonment, or death) where he loses the Republican nomination and concedes gracefully?
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Did you actually write ‘Donny’ and ‘concede gracefully’ in the same post and expect us to take the post seriously?
Quote: ams288Donny announcing his 2024 candidacy tonight.
Is there any plausible scenario (not involving his theoretical indictment, imprisonment, or death) where he loses the Republican nomination and concedes gracefully?
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Loses yes, concedes graciously LOL.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ams288Donny announcing his 2024 candidacy tonight.
Is there any plausible scenario (not involving his theoretical indictment, imprisonment, or death) where he loses the Republican nomination and concedes gracefully?
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Did you actually write ‘Donny’ and ‘concede gracefully’ in the same post and expect us to take the post seriously?
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I just want to know if anyone in the GOP has a plan besides “hope he dies” if DeSantis wins the nomination and Trump decides to try to tank his candidacy in the general election.
Quote: WizardLet the record show I'm making this prediction on Nov 15. About 45% of Republicans will faithfully sport Trump in the primaries. Meanwhile the other 55% is divided among two or more challengers, I'd guess Pence and DeSantis at this point. Trump wins the GOP primary. If forced to predict, he then loses the general election.
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I would bet every dollar I have that Trump is not the next President of the USA. I’d bet some dollars that he is not the nominee.
I’m more interested in how SchumerMcCarthy/Biden govern the next two years.
Quote: WizardLet the record show I'm making this prediction on Nov 15. About 45% of Republicans will faithfully sport Trump in the primaries. Meanwhile the other 55% is divided among two or more challengers, I'd guess Pence and DeSantis at this point. Trump wins the GOP primary. If forced to predict, he then loses the general election.
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I think he'll do about forty percent, and after three primaries, the rest drop to leaving a two-way contest to the convention.
Who knows, maybe the mythical National Unity ticket appears and focuses on the 60-70 percent of Americans who don't hate their opponents.
I wish I could see my overall totals with them, but I am sure I am up pretty big in terms of ROI.
What’s stopping you?Quote: SOOPOO
I would bet every dollar I have that Trump is not the next President of the USA. I’d bet some dollars that he is not the nominee.
On Betfair you can lay Trump to win the election at -440.
Put your money where your mouth is
Quote: Ace2What’s stopping you?Quote: SOOPOO
I would bet every dollar I have that Trump is not the next President of the USA. I’d bet some dollars that he is not the nominee.
On Betfair you can lay Trump to win the election at -440.
Put your money where your mouth is
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I suspect his wife might not agree that it was such a great idea.
https://www.rawstory.com/new-hampshire-state-house-seat-flips-by-one-vote-from-republican-to-democrat-following-a-recount/
Republican Larry Gagne of Hillsborough 16 House District, who was first elected in 2008, was defeated in a recount by Democrat Maxine Mosely, a retired school counselor and first-time candidate for political office.
The final tally that was certified by Secretary of State David Scanlan (R) was 1,799 to 1,798. Hillborough 16's second seat was won by Republican Will Infantine.
Quote: SOOPOOI would bet every dollar I have that Trump is not the next President of the USA. I’d bet some dollars that he is not the nominee.
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The betting market suggests he has an 18% chance. I think that's high, but will you give me 8 to 1?
People so often want to vent their emotions and their rationales for their beliefs regarding discoverable facts. Both are tiresome and both are unpersuasive. In stark contrast, wagers cut right to the chase.
Quote: Ace2What’s stopping you?Quote: SOOPOO
I would bet every dollar I have that Trump is not the next President of the USA. I’d bet some dollars that he is not the nominee.
On Betfair you can lay Trump to win the election at -440.
Put your money where your mouth is
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Betfair apparently is not legal in my state.
I just went on betfair.com and get a blank page.
I think I’ll pass on betfair.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardLet the record show I'm making this prediction on Nov 15. About 45% of Republicans will faithfully sport Trump in the primaries. Meanwhile the other 55% is divided among two or more challengers, I'd guess Pence and DeSantis at this point. Trump wins the GOP primary. If forced to predict, he then loses the general election.
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I would bet every dollar I have that Trump is not the next President of the USA. I’d bet some dollars that he is not the nominee.
I’m more interested in how SchumerMcCarthy/Biden govern the next two years.
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Since I was taken literally, I just counted the dollars I have and it totals $486. When I made the statement, it was implied I’d be getting what the public would deem fair odds. I wasn’t going to bet ‘every dollar I have’ to win, say, $10. So if, as Mike says, fair odds is 18%, I’ll offer Mike this…. My $400 to his $75.
This is an extremely +EV bet for me. If Trump is re -elected my wife (and most everyone I know) would be so miserable I don’t think I’d notice the $400. If Trump is not re-elected I get a bonus of $75.
Anybody watch it?
Quote: TigerWuI didn't watch Trump's announcement speech but from what I've heard from people who did watch it was that it was fairly lackluster and low-energy and it seemed like Trump and his family didn't even want to be there. The major networks didn't even carry it, and apparently even Fox News cut it short at some point. I also heard people were trying to leave the speech early but security guards wouldn't let them....LOL....
Anybody watch it?
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I watched the first ten minutes and then thumbed thru what CNN called the highlights. There were several moments where he paused, seeming to expect a huge ovation and got nothing or a spattering. I thought the applause and adoration were missing from the crowd.
There is a video on the net of people trying to leave and being prevented. There is another video, taken about forty minutes in, that shows a large part of the crowd milling around, having private conversations while he drones on.
Just another crazy Florida Man story.
Quote: TigerWuI didn't watch Trump's announcement speech but from what I've heard from people who did watch it was that it was fairly lackluster and low-energy and it seemed like Trump and his family didn't even want to be there. The major networks didn't even carry it, and apparently even Fox News cut it short at some point. I also heard people were trying to leave the speech early but security guards wouldn't let them....LOL....
Anybody watch it?
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Only saw some clips.
Looked like he had been possessed by Low Energy Jeb! or something.
I still think he will be the nominee. Otherwise he will threaten to burn it all down and run as an independent.
Quote: billryanThe NY Post covered his speech on page 26, saying a retired Florida man announced he would be running for president.
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I really hope media outlets start to run with this....
"Former game show host announces...."
"Unsuccessful casino owner announces....."
"Failed businessman announces...."
Etc....
When someone says he’d bet every dollar he has on something, especially the most significant election in the world, how can you not take that literally. And with online gambling so prevalent/legal in the current era, there’s no need to say “I would bet”.Quote: SOOPOO
Since I was taken literally, I just counted the dollars I have and it totals $486. When I made the statement, it was implied I’d be getting what the public would deem fair odds. I wasn’t going to bet ‘every dollar I have’ to win, say, $10. So if, as Mike says, fair odds is 18%, I’ll offer Mike this…. My $400 to his $75.
This is an extremely +EV bet for me. If Trump is re -elected my wife (and most everyone I know) would be so miserable I don’t think I’d notice the $400. If Trump is not re-elected I get a bonus of $75.
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So you might bet a few hundred bucks on it…which is essentially zero compared to your net worth. This means you have essentially zero confidence that Trump won’t be elected. Numbers, especially those preceded by $, don’t lie
A man believes in something only to the degree he is willing to bet money on it
Quote: Ace2When someone says he’d bet every dollar he has on something, especially the most significant election in the world, how can you not take that literally. And with online gambling so prevalent/legal in the current era, there’s no need to say “I would bet”.Quote: SOOPOO
Since I was taken literally, I just counted the dollars I have and it totals $486. When I made the statement, it was implied I’d be getting what the public would deem fair odds. I wasn’t going to bet ‘every dollar I have’ to win, say, $10. So if, as Mike says, fair odds is 18%, I’ll offer Mike this…. My $400 to his $75.
This is an extremely +EV bet for me. If Trump is re -elected my wife (and most everyone I know) would be so miserable I don’t think I’d notice the $400. If Trump is not re-elected I get a bonus of $75.
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So you might bet a few hundred bucks on it…which is essentially zero compared to your net worth. This means you have essentially zero confidence that Trump won’t be elected. Numbers, especially those preceded by $, don’t lie
A man believes in something only to the degree he is willing to bet money on it
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That is just sad.
Quote: Ace2When someone says he’d bet every dollar he has on something, especially the most significant election in the world, how can you not take that literally. And with online gambling so prevalent/legal in the current era, there’s no need to say “I would bet”.Quote: SOOPOO
Since I was taken literally, I just counted the dollars I have and it totals $486. When I made the statement, it was implied I’d be getting what the public would deem fair odds. I wasn’t going to bet ‘every dollar I have’ to win, say, $10. So if, as Mike says, fair odds is 18%, I’ll offer Mike this…. My $400 to his $75.
This is an extremely +EV bet for me. If Trump is re -elected my wife (and most everyone I know) would be so miserable I don’t think I’d notice the $400. If Trump is not re-elected I get a bonus of $75.
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So you might bet a few hundred bucks on it…which is essentially zero compared to your net worth. This means you have essentially zero confidence that Trump won’t be elected. Numbers, especially those preceded by $, don’t lie
A man believes in something only to the degree he is willing to bet money on it
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If I wanted to say I’d bet my entire net worth, then that is what I’d say. Words have meanings. Look them up. Or if I meant it as a figure of speech I’d figure you could figure that out…. I’ve heard you yapping about other people offering to make a bet. Why don’t you offer up one? Or do you believe in NOTHING?
I’ve made the Wiz a bona fide offer. We will see if he accepts it.
Why don’t you at least weigh in? What do you think the odds are of Trump being our next President?
IMO, for most voters who poll as viewing Trump unfavorably it is not a matter of 'like' or 'dislike' - it's that they have a strong loathing for Trump. We've had the past six years to get to evaluate him and no future advertisements or speeches are going to make the slightest difference in people's opinions of Trump. Its why political parties usually almost never nominate a candidate for President who has previously been their nominee and lost - the electorate has already formed their opinion. Better off with the devil you don't know.
Quote: gordonm888A family member of a friend who lives in western Pennsylvania is a life-long conservative Republican who voted for Trump in 2016. He admits he voted for Fetterman last week. His reason? Because Trump endorsed Oz.
IMO, for most voters who poll as viewing Trump unfavorably it is not a matter of 'like' or 'dislike' - it's that they have a strong loathing for Trump. We've had the past six years to get to evaluate him and no future advertisements or speeches are going to make the slightest difference in people's opinions of Trump. Its why political parties usually almost never nominate a candidate for President who has previously been their nominee and lost - the electorate has already formed their opinion. Better off with the devil you don't know.
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My wife would vote for many Republicans, just not Trump. She voted for McCain. I think Romney, too. She will vote for any Democrat over Trump. I would vote for generic Republican (Youngkin, DeSantis, Ryan, etc..) over any Democrat. If Trump is nominated I vote for myself again.
I think many if not most of my friends would vote Republican unless Trump runs.
Small sample size, but it’s a pattern…
It's a terrible recipe no matter the politics.
Can anyone name a state Trump lost in 2020 that they actually think he will win in 2024?
Not sure what final tally was in 2020, but my window is open for Trump does over a million worse in popular vote than he did in 2020 if the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate him. Any takers?
I think it's clear that Desantis would fare better, though it will be a tough road for any Republican in 2024 given Dems' overwhelming strength on the West coast and Northeast.
Large betting markets tend to be pretty efficient. But there can be bias such as the bias for NFL home favorites. I believe there is enormous bias against Trump (opponents despise him more than supporters back him) and therefore I believe betting on him is always a good value, as I did in the last two elections (net profit since 2016 odds were around 5:1 lol). This has nothing to do with political leanings, just like my NFL bets on road dogs have nothing to do with who I want to winQuote: SOOPOO[
If I wanted to say I’d bet my entire net worth, then that is what I’d say. Words have meanings. Look them up. Or if I meant it as a figure of speech I’d figure you could figure that out…. I’ve heard you yapping about other people offering to make a bet. Why don’t you offer up one? Or do you believe in NOTHING?
I’ve made the Wiz a bona fide offer. We will see if he accepts it.
Why don’t you at least weigh in? What do you think the odds are of Trump being our next President?
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Figure of speech. If someone says they put “every dollar they have” into the stock market, do you actually think they are referring to the spare cash in their wallet ? They mean everything they have
