Election Betting
Quote: EvenBobMichelle Obama doesn't better than Biden does against Trump, she would still lose. And figure Kennedy into that and the loss is even bigger. But she has no interest in running, why are they even polling it.
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Polling it to make news where there is none.
Quote: EvenBobMichelle Obama doesn't better than Biden does against Trump, she would still lose. And figure Kennedy into that and the loss is even bigger. But she has no interest in running, why are they even polling it.
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If Trump would actually beat Biden in the popular vote by 3% as your quoted poll suggests, it would be an electoral college rout for Trump. I think the way the states play out it’s around an electoral college tie if Biden beats Trump by 2-3%.
Quote: SOOPOOIf Trump would actually beat Biden in the popular vote by 3% as your quoted poll suggests, it would be an electoral college rout for Trump. I think the way the states play out it’s around an electoral college tie if Biden beats Trump by 2-3%.
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Just throwing out some numbers:
Trump lost the popular vote by 2% in 2016 and 4.5% in 2020.
He won 2016 by 80 electoral votes but lost 2020 by 74 electoral votes.
He had an increase of over 11 million popular votes from 2016 to 2020, but the Democrat side had an increase of 15.4 million (from Clinton to Biden).
Quote: TigerWuThat Michelle Obama poll is from a DailyMail "article," so it's nothing more than tabloid gossip....LOL
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A poll is a poll is a poll. You can find fault with all of them if you try hard enough.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuThat Michelle Obama poll is from a DailyMail "article," so it's nothing more than tabloid gossip....LOL
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A poll is a poll is a poll. You can find fault with all of them if you try hard enough.
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I didn't have to try very hard with that one. A Presidential poll with someone who has no chance of being President is pointless. Might as well have put Batman or Daffy Duck on there, too.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuThat Michelle Obama poll is from a DailyMail "article," so it's nothing more than tabloid gossip....LOL
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A poll is a poll is a poll. You can find fault with all of them if you try hard enough.
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I didn't have to try very hard with that one. A Presidential poll with someone who has no chance of being President is pointless. Might as well have put Batman or Daffy Duck on there, too.
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Yet she is on every oddsmakers list, go figure that one out.
Quote: EvenBob
Yet she is on every oddsmakers list, go figure that one out.
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Because people are dumb and will bet on anything.
Quote:Because people are dumb and will bet on anything.
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🤔 Lighting dynamite and have everyone bet on who loses the "hot potato" game.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobMichelle Obama doesn't better than Biden does against Trump, she would still lose. And figure Kennedy into that and the loss is even bigger. But she has no interest in running, why are they even polling it.
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It's fanfiction. Some people are obsessed with Michelle Obama. And it's not even people that like her. People that hate her can't stop talking about her.
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I don't love her I don't hate her, I have no feelings about her. Like most first ladies she was a non-entity when her husband was president I can't remember anything she did. Why on Earth would I want to vote for her for president or why would anybody. I don't get it.
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She was involved in "Waffles & Mochi", a TV program focused on making children not be afraid of fresh vegetables.
It's hard to be opposed to that, even if it doesn't translate to political office.
Quote: DieterQuote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobMichelle Obama doesn't better than Biden does against Trump, she would still lose. And figure Kennedy into that and the loss is even bigger. But she has no interest in running, why are they even polling it.
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It's fanfiction. Some people are obsessed with Michelle Obama. And it's not even people that like her. People that hate her can't stop talking about her.
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I don't love her I don't hate her, I have no feelings about her. Like most first ladies she was a non-entity when her husband was president I can't remember anything she did. Why on Earth would I want to vote for her for president or why would anybody. I don't get it.
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She was involved in "Waffles & Mochi", a TV program focused on making children not be afraid of fresh vegetables.
It's hard to be opposed to that, even if it doesn't translate to political office.
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Her school lunch programs were not well received. Kind of ended up being "you ran the foodservice for your 20 year career but I am First Lady so who is better qualified."
Quote: AZDuffman
Her school lunch programs were not well received. Kind of ended up being "you ran the foodservice for your 20 year career but I am First Lady so who is better qualified."
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No, the lunch programs were not well received, but it was the USDA's ideas that were implemented, not Michelle Obama's. She was just the face of the campaign.
Currently BetOnline and Bookmaker have the "dems vs repubs" at -110, aka even money juice removed.
ANYONE that wants to bet me that Donald Trump will not be the next president (as in I take the NO he will not, +100, a deal btw since trump appears to be like a very small 5 pt fav head to head), PM me for more convo I will accept 5 or 6 figure bets. Must be a known member in good standing and willing to put the money up in a trusted 3rd party escrow.
Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
Quote: Romes
Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
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If this is not political speech I do not know what is.
Quote: Romes
ANYONE that wants to bet me that Donald Trump will not be the next president (as in I take the NO he will not, +100, a deal btw since trump appears to be like a very small 5 pt fav head to head), PM me for more convo I will accept 5 or 6 figure bets. Must be a known member in good standing and willing to put the money up in a trusted 3rd party escrow.
I hope someone takes this bet. Sounds like some juicy action!
Quote:Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
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See you in 3 days....LOL
Quote: RomesSince this is the "election betting" thread I thought I'd pop in to make a simple announcement.
Currently BetOnline and Bookmaker have the "dems vs repubs" at -110, aka even money juice removed.
ANYONE that wants to bet me that Donald Trump will not be the next president (as in I take the NO he will not, +100, a deal btw since trump appears to be like a very small 5 pt fav head to head), PM me for more convo I will accept 5 or 6 figure bets. Must be a known member in good standing and willing to put the money up in a trusted 3rd party escrow.
Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
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Either it's political speech, or insult. Either way, clear violation. 3 days.
Quote: DieterQuote: RomesSince this is the "election betting" thread I thought I'd pop in to make a simple announcement.
Currently BetOnline and Bookmaker have the "dems vs repubs" at -110, aka even money juice removed.
ANYONE that wants to bet me that Donald Trump will not be the next president (as in I take the NO he will not, +100, a deal btw since trump appears to be like a very small 5 pt fav head to head), PM me for more convo I will accept 5 or 6 figure bets. Must be a known member in good standing and willing to put the money up in a trusted 3rd party escrow.
Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
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Either it's political speech, or insult. Either way, clear violation. 3 days.
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Why not call it both served concurrent?
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: DieterQuote: RomesSince this is the "election betting" thread I thought I'd pop in to make a simple announcement.
Currently BetOnline and Bookmaker have the "dems vs repubs" at -110, aka even money juice removed.
ANYONE that wants to bet me that Donald Trump will not be the next president (as in I take the NO he will not, +100, a deal btw since trump appears to be like a very small 5 pt fav head to head), PM me for more convo I will accept 5 or 6 figure bets. Must be a known member in good standing and willing to put the money up in a trusted 3rd party escrow.
Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
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Either it's political speech, or insult. Either way, clear violation. 3 days.
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Why not call it both served concurrent?
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Because I'm a lazy oaf, and this is easier for me to write up.
Quote: DieterQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: DieterQuote: RomesSince this is the "election betting" thread I thought I'd pop in to make a simple announcement.
Currently BetOnline and Bookmaker have the "dems vs repubs" at -110, aka even money juice removed.
ANYONE that wants to bet me that Donald Trump will not be the next president (as in I take the NO he will not, +100, a deal btw since trump appears to be like a very small 5 pt fav head to head), PM me for more convo I will accept 5 or 6 figure bets. Must be a known member in good standing and willing to put the money up in a trusted 3rd party escrow.
Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
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Either it's political speech, or insult. Either way, clear violation. 3 days.
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Why not call it both served concurrent?
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Because I'm a lazy oaf, and this is easier for me to write up.
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Personal insult! Suspend yourself 3 days!
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: DieterQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: DieterQuote: RomesSince this is the "election betting" thread I thought I'd pop in to make a simple announcement.
Currently BetOnline and Bookmaker have the "dems vs repubs" at -110, aka even money juice removed.
ANYONE that wants to bet me that Donald Trump will not be the next president (as in I take the NO he will not, +100, a deal btw since trump appears to be like a very small 5 pt fav head to head), PM me for more convo I will accept 5 or 6 figure bets. Must be a known member in good standing and willing to put the money up in a trusted 3rd party escrow.
Also, this is my free speech but we'll see what happens: If you support trump, you are a moron morally, economically, politically, and humanely. NOT your support for him, but your inability to tell fact from fiction makes you literally the issue with the country let alone the world. Couldn't stand by this more. Not looking for a debate since 1+1=2 even if degenerates think it's 3.
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Either it's political speech, or insult. Either way, clear violation. 3 days.
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Why not call it both served concurrent?
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Because I'm a lazy oaf, and this is easier for me to write up.
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Personal insult! Suspend yourself 3 days!
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I believe that self-deprecation has generally been allowed...
This chart shows from about March 1st to April 8th. Trump in red, Biden in blue.
Quote: EvenBob
I don't love her I don't hate her, I have no feelings about her. Like most first ladies she was a non-entity when her husband was president I can't remember anything she did. Why on Earth would I want to vote for her for president or why would anybody. I don't get it.
Based on the current candidates I would think any random person would be an improvement.
Quote: TigerWuBiden's betting odds have been increasing since early last month while Trump's have been decreasing.
This chart shows from about March 1st to April 8th. Trump in red, Biden in blue.
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Yes. Punters got spooked after the release of the Hur report and Biden nosedived from about where he is now to 27%. His climb back up got a kickstart in early March when he (essentially) ran the table on Super Tuesday, had Michelle Obama reiterate that she had no intention of running on Wednesday, and then gave a fiery State of the Union speech on Thursday leaving no doubt that he didn't intend to step aside for anyone.
Trump has slipped around two points. If things stay the way they are then 45% is probably the ceiling for his action. But who knows? A bad trial result and he might nosedive down to the 20s himself.
Meanwhile, in the second tier, Obama has plummeted from 9% to 3.3% for reasons already mentioned. Presumably her punters will mostly take their action to Biden. Kennedy is way up but, at the penny stock candidate level, this merely means from 3.2% to 4%. Realistically, he need only be contemplated by how big of a spoiler effect he'll have.
Anyone taking bets on how little time passes before the judge has to admonish Trump to behave himself and stop being an annoying distraction?
Following the trial on X via Mathew Lee Russell of Inner City Press. Best live tweet coverage. No video or audio recording allowed at this trial
Fascinating fact. Trumps Truth Social acct is posting while Trump is sitting in the courtroom
Quote: TigerWuOdds are tied as of April 13. I bet the odds will be all over the place as this first trial goes on.
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Trump has 4 criminal trials
This is the only one that will probably go to the jury before the election
Quote: terapined
Anyone taking bets on how little time passes before the judge has to admonish Trump to behave himself and stop being an annoying distraction
Justice Merchan: Mr. Trump, you may remember that I previously gave you Parker warnings: You have the right to be present in the trial. If you disrupt the proceeding, you may be excluded and jailed. If you fail to appear, a warrant will be issued for your arrest
Quote: terapined1st ever criminal trial for an ex President started this morning. Trump is in attendance
Anyone taking bets on how little time passes before the judge has to admonish Trump to behave himself and stop being an annoying distraction?
Wow
Only took to day 2
Judge Merchan to Trumps lead attorney
“Your client was uttering something in the direction of the juror. I won’t tolerate that. I will not have any jurors intimidated in this courtroom. I want to make that crystal clear. Take a minute with your client.”
Quote: terapinedQuote: terapined1st ever criminal trial for an ex President started this morning. Trump is in attendance
Anyone taking bets on how little time passes before the judge has to admonish Trump to behave himself and stop being an annoying distraction?
Wow
Only took to day 2
Judge Merchan to Trumps lead attorney
“Your client was uttering something in the direction of the juror. I won’t tolerate that. I will not have any jurors intimidated in this courtroom. I want to make that crystal clear. Take a minute with your client.”
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WARNING: This is political speech, which is forbidden in this forum and in this thread.
terapined, what relevance does this kind of post (and your previous two posts) have to the election odds? You seem to be focussed on reporting negative information about Trump. Please get familiar with the special rules for this thread. For this thread you are required to keep a non-partisan tone and to make comments related to the probability of various candidates winning the election.
If you continue to act as a news reporting service and report news items that disparage a candidate, you will face disciplinary action for violating the forum rules.
Quote: TigerWuBiden's betting odds have now pulled ahead of Trump for the first time since last September....but only just barely. Personally, I think Trump's odds are going to start climbing back up again once people get bored of this current trial being in the news.
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Hmm. It's about the same today but there's something weird. Notice the breakdown. The sites have the two candidates tied or show Trump with a sleight lead. Until, that is, you get to Predictit which has Biden leading by a whopping 8 points. Do they know something there? Or are they betting big with their hearts? Or is it merely a random chance outlier?
I confess to never visiting Predictit. Are there any Predictit users here who can explain how the site works?
Quote: GialmereQuote: TigerWuBiden's betting odds have now pulled ahead of Trump for the first time since last September....but only just barely. Personally, I think Trump's odds are going to start climbing back up again once people get bored of this current trial being in the news.
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Hmm. It's about the same today but there's something weird. Notice the breakdown. The sites have the two candidates tied or show Trump with a sleight lead. Until, that is, you get to Predictit which has Biden leading by a whopping 8 points. Do they know something there? Or are they betting big with their hearts? Or is it merely a random chance outlier?
I confess to never visiting Predictit. Are there any Predictit users here who can explain how the site works?
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No expert. But Predictit will probably list the bet as ‘winner of 2024 election’ versus a poll which is supposed to be indicative of the overall popular vote. As I’ve stated ad nauseum, Biden can easily win the popular vote but lose the election, a la Hilary Clinton.
I think Predictit betting just matches two opposite bets. So for you to get 11-10 someone has to be willing to take 10-11 on the other side.
Odds are supposedly updated every minute. As of this post it currently shows Biden winning over Trump, 45.7% to 43.5%, or 276 electoral votes to 262.
Quote: TigerWuHappened upon this site the other day.
Odds are supposedly updated every minute. As of this post it currently shows Biden winning over Trump, 45.7% to 43.5%, or 276 el
ectoral votes to 262.
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It's worth pointing out that on this date in 2016 Hillary was ahead of Trump by a full 10 points. We know how that worked out. The oddsmakers were so in the tank for Hillary if you recall that the biggest one in Europe actually paid off all the Hillary bets like she had won long before the election happened. So they wouldn't have to take any more bets. And then when Trump won they had to pay off all those bets as well. So much for the wisdom of the oddsmakers.
Quote: EvenBob
It's worth pointing out that on this date in 2016 Hillary was ahead of Trump by a full 10 points. We know how that worked out. The oddsmakers were so in the tank for Hillary if you recall that the biggest one in Europe actually paid off all the Hillary bets like she had won long before the election happened. So they wouldn't have to take any more bets. And then when Trump won they had to pay off all those bets as well. So much for the wisdom of the oddsmakers.
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You sure seemed awfully excited earlier in this thread when Trump was ahead in the odds....LOL.... now that Biden is ahead you're all, "ahhh, who cares?!?"
I take it you won't be posting any more in this thread since you don't trust the "wisdom" of the oddsmakers?
Quote: TigerWu
You sure seemed awfully excited earlier in this thread
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Nope, I know as well as anybody that you can't trust what anybody is reporting until about 2 weeks before the election. It might be interesting but it's not exciting because it changes. What is different this time is there seems to be a massive shift in the minority vote towards Trump. Maybe this will change and they will get behind Biden again, who knows.
Election Trivia (part 1)
1) Just like the sports analytics of "Moneyball," Nate Silver uses sabermetrics to balance political polling on what website named for the number of electors in the U.S. Electoral College?
2) Who is the only U.S. president to have been elected unanimously, receiving every electoral vote available to him?
3) Who was the last third-party candidate in a U.S. presidential election to carry a state's electoral votes?
4) Instant-runoff voting and single transferable vote are the two specific types of a more general voting system called RCV, whose letters stand for what?
5) In 1997, a Texas State law allowed David Wolf to became the first American to vote from where?
-------------------------------------
Yes ... +700
JOE BIDEN TO RESIGN BEFORE NOVEMBER 2024
Yes ... +900
DONALD TRUMP SR. TO OFFICIALLY DROP OUT OF PRESIDENTIAL RACE BEFORE NOVEMBER 2024
Yes ... +2000
JOE BIDEN'S VP TO BE PRESIDENT COME ELECTION TIME
Yes ... +5000
KAMALA HARRIS TO RESIGN AS VP, JOE BIDEN THEN PICKS HILARY CLINTON AS VP BEFORE RESIGNING HIMSELF, SO HILARY CLINTON BECOMES POTUS
Yes ... +10000
Quote: Gialmere
JOE BIDEN TO RESIGN BEFORE NOVEMBER 2024
Yes ... +900
DONALD TRUMP SR. TO OFFICIALLY DROP OUT OF PRESIDENTIAL RACE BEFORE NOVEMBER 2024
Yes ... +2000
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Just going off of what's been going on in the news, I feel like the odds of Trump dropping out is WAY more likely than Biden resigning.
Heh heh. Some low voter turnout.
2) George Washington (twice)
3) George Wallace (five states in 1968)
4) Ranked Choice Voting (like in Alaska and Maine)
5) Space (while aboard Mir)
Quote: TigerWuNikki Haley won something like 17% of the primary votes in Pennsylvania, a month AFTER she already dropped out of the race. I'm kind of surprised this didn't give her a little bump in the betting odds. She's obviously still on a lot of people's minds. If something happens to Trump before the election, who is the "Plan B" now? Would RFK Jr. jump in?
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I walked right past my polling place. Why waste my time?
Quote: Gialmere1) Just like the sports analytics of "Moneyball," Nate Silver uses sabermetrics to balance political polling on what website named for the number of electors in the U.S. Electoral College?
2) Who is the only U.S. president to have been elected unanimously, receiving every electoral vote available to him?
3) Who was the last third-party candidate in a U.S. presidential election to carry a state's electoral votes?
4) Instant-runoff voting and single transferable vote are the two specific types of a more general voting system called RCV, whose letters stand for what?
5) In 1997, a Texas State law allowed David Wolf to became the first American to vote from where?
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1. 270towin.com
2. George Washington
3. Teddy Roosevelt for the Bull Moose party.
4. ?
5. Space. If I must be more specific, the International Space Station.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: TigerWuNikki Haley won something like 17% of the primary votes in Pennsylvania, a month AFTER she already dropped out of the race. I'm kind of surprised this didn't give her a little bump in the betting odds. She's obviously still on a lot of people's minds. If something happens to Trump before the election, who is the "Plan B" now? Would RFK Jr. jump in?
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I walked right past my polling place. Why waste my time?
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If something were to happen between now and the convention, the field is open for the delegates to choose a candidate? Haley, maybe? I would put here in the pole position.
If something were to happen between the convention and the election, the RNC could also choose anyone, But I'm willing to bet they choose whoever the VP candidate is.
I actually think all the gag orders have helped Trump. If he were on the campaign trail giving stump speeches and speaking off the cuff, the Biden camp would get a steady supply of sound bytes to (at least try to) use against him. With Trump silent, the press has little choice but to focus on Biden and his teleprompter.
