Election Betting
Quote: TigerWuTrump's election odds are currently the highest they've been since January 2023.
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A week ago today it was 44-42. What changed in the last 7 days. For instance a week ago Betfair had Trump up by five and today they have Trump up by 12. I know of nothing in the last week that would have caused a jump like this. Trump has not gone to prison in an orange jumpsuit and Biden has not fallen up or down a flight of stairs.
Trump is on trial, but he's always on trial these days. Yes, this time it's a criminal case but, although the press keeps trying to make it into a big thing (and historically it is), the public greets the news with a collective yawn.
Meanwhile, Biden is being indecisive with the situation in Israel, but he's been tap dancing in that minefield for months now without moving the needle much, if at all. And the press, now that Columbia is quiet, has lost interest in the still going campus protests.
On paper the numbers should be stable at this juncture, and yet ...
Observation: Trump is suddenly in the best position he has ever been in as a candidate running for President.
Reason: It beats me.
Quote: GialmereI've been wondering the same thing. There's obviously some sort of shift taking place with both punters and voters, but I'll be damned if I can figure out why.
Trump is on trial, but he's always on trial these days. Yes, this time it's a criminal case but, although the press keeps trying to make it into a big thing (and historically it is), the public greets the news with a collective yawn.
Meanwhile, Biden is being indecisive with the situation in Israel, but he's been tap dancing in that minefield for months now without moving the needle much, if at all. And the press, now that Columbia is quiet, has lost interest in the still going campus protests.
On paper the numbers should be stable at this juncture, and yet ...
Observation: Trump is suddenly in the best position he has ever been in as a candidate running for President.
Reason: It beats me.
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I don't know much about this kind of betting but if all of a sudden there are a lot more bets for one candidate does that mean the odds for him go up? If that's true why are all of a sudden so many people betting on Trump.
Quote: GialmereI've been wondering the same thing. There's obviously some sort of shift taking place with both punters and voters, but I'll be damned if I can figure out why.
Trump is on trial, but he's always on trial these days. Yes, this time it's a criminal case but, although the press keeps trying to make it into a big thing (and historically it is), the public greets the news with a collective yawn.
Meanwhile, Biden is being indecisive with the situation in Israel, but he's been tap dancing in that minefield for months now without moving the needle much, if at all. And the press, now that Columbia is quiet, has lost interest in the still going campus protests.
On paper the numbers should be stable at this juncture, and yet ...
Observation: Trump is suddenly in the best position he has ever been in as a candidate running for President.
Reason: It beats me.
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I suspect that Biden has suddenly lost the support of American Jewry. In general, American jews don't seek to call attention to themselves or to make a public spectacle of their opinions or emotions, but on certain types of issues they are highly unified and drop-dead serious. And Biden recently crossed a line on Israel. The timing and size of the swing make sense to me.
Quote: TigerWuThis is from BetMGM UK. They've got Trump as the favorite, too. I wonder if betting odds are "skewed" because the type of people who support Trump are more likely to gamble in general?
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I know mostly conservatives and not a single one of them gambles. The few people I do know who gamble are liberals. I don't know how it works on a national level but conservatives to me always seem more tight fisted with their money.
Quote: EvenBob
I know mostly conservatives and not a single one of them gambles. The few people I do know who gamble are liberals. I don't know how it works on a national level but conservatives to me always seem more tight fisted with their money.
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I found a Gallup poll from 2020 that somewhat supports this.
Gambling is morally wrong:
Liberals: 1%
Conservatives: 36%
Gambling is acceptable:
Democrats: 76%
Republicans: 70%
Quote: Gialmere
Election Trivia (part 1)
1) Just like the sports analytics of "Moneyball," Nate Silver uses sabermetrics to balance political polling on what website named for the number of electors in the U.S. Electoral College?
2) Who is the only U.S. president to have been elected unanimously, receiving every electoral vote available to him?
3) Who was the last third-party candidate in a U.S. presidential election to carry a state's electoral votes?
4) Instant-runoff voting and single transferable vote are the two specific types of a more general voting system called RCV, whose letters stand for what?
5) In 1997, a Texas State law allowed David Wolf to became the first American to vote from where?
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1. Project538 ?
2. George Washington - although James Monroe came within one vote; The Version I Heard Was, the elector in question did not like Monroe's values, but the powers that be didn't want this to be the "public" reason, so they invented a story that he voted against Monroe because he wanted Washington to be the only "unanimously elected" President.
3. While a number of candidates have picked up a vote here and there, the last one to get all of a state's votes was George Wallace in 1968.
4. Ranked Choice Voting - you select a "first choice", a "second choice", and so on. This is also the method used to determine most of the nominees for Academy Awards, as well as the winner of Best Picture.
5. Space.
Biden wants no live audience and no other candidates (RFK jr in particular) involved. He also wants the microphone cut off for the candidate not speaking.
Trump wants drug tests for himself and Biden. He also insists that no earpieces be allowed during the debate.
Can a compromise be reached? CNN, looking at a ratings bonanza, will probably bend over backwards to make it happen. On the other hand, rumor has it that should Trump be found guilty in the the New York trial, Biden will declare that he won't debate a convicted felon and thus render it all moot.
So far, news of the debates seems to have no effect on betting action.
Winner of debate:
Trump: -140
Biden: even money
Debate canceled:
Yes: 3 to 1
No: -500
I still don't know how the "winner" of a debate is decided. Depending on who you listen to, the answer is always different. Personally, I don't think either debate is going to happen.
Quote: TigerWuAs of this morning, Betonline.ag has the following odds for the first debate:
Winner of debate:
Trump: -140
Biden: even money
Debate canceled:
Yes: 3 to 1
No: -500
I still don't know how the "winner" of a debate is decided. Depending on who you listen to, the answer is always different. Personally, I don't think either debate is going to happen.
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You would be better betting on professional wrestling that the winner of a debate.
"The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule on May 10 to permanently ban betting on election commercial prediction markets in the United States, the New York Times’ Jeff Sommer recently reported."
"The most consequential betting of all — wagers on elections in the United States — may soon be shut down by regulators.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered a ban on such betting on the financial exchanges known as prediction markets, where it’s possible to make wagers on who will win the 2024 presidential election and on a host of other matters." Jeff Sommer NYT
Quote: TigerWuAs of this morning, Betonline.ag has the following odds for the first debate:
Winner of debate:
Trump: -140
Biden: even money
Debate canceled:
Yes: 3 to 1
No: -500
I still don't know how the "winner" of a debate is decided. Depending on who you listen to, the answer is always different. Personally, I don't think either debate is going to happen.
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It says, "As Per Polls." It doesn't say which polls.
Meanwhile, the site has what I would consider to be my Lock Of The Year - it is offering +1000 on both Biden and Trump (separately) to be Time's Person of the Year. I am pretty sure it will go to whichever of them is elected.
Quote: ThatDonGuy
Meanwhile, the site has what I would consider to be my Lock Of The Year - it is offering +1000 on both Biden and Trump (separately) to be Time's Person of the Year. I am pretty sure it will go to whichever of them is elected.
I could not imagine any way Trump could win Person of the Year. I assume that is voted on by media, I can unfortunately see him being elected President.
Quote: DRich
I could not imagine any way Trump could win Person of the Year.
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Really? Why not? He was already Person of the Year in 2016. According to Time, the Person of the Year is selected by their editors and awarded to someone who "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year." Being the first President involved in criminal trials is pretty noteworthy. If he wins the election he will most definitely be Person of the Year.
Quote: DRichQuote: ThatDonGuy
Meanwhile, the site has what I would consider to be my Lock Of The Year - it is offering +1000 on both Biden and Trump (separately) to be Time's Person of the Year. I am pretty sure it will go to whichever of them is elected.
I could not imagine any way Trump could win Person of the Year. I assume that is voted on by media, I can unfortunately see him being elected President.
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Why not? It usually goes to a new POTUS. Trump would be only the second "double President" in history, alone a big thing.
Quote: DRichQuote: ThatDonGuy
Meanwhile, the site has what I would consider to be my Lock Of The Year - it is offering +1000 on both Biden and Trump (separately) to be Time's Person of the Year. I am pretty sure it will go to whichever of them is elected.
I could not imagine any way Trump could win Person of the Year. I assume that is voted on by media, I can unfortunately see him being elected President.
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No - the decision is strictly internal within Time magazine.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: DRich
I could not imagine any way Trump could win Person of the Year.
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Really? Why not? He was already Person of the Year in 2016. According to Time, the Person of the Year is selected by their editors and awarded to someone who "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year." Being the first President involved in criminal trials is pretty noteworthy. If he wins the election he will most definitely be Person of the Year.
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Interesting, I had no idea it was for "better or worse". if that is the case he could definitely get it.
It's a big week for the campaigns. The New York trial (now probably the only trial to take place before the election) will be sent to the jury. Place your bets on the outcome. Guilty? Guilty on some counts? Not guilty? Hung? Both sides seem to be preparing for a worst case scenario.
I can't see a New York courtroom giving Trump an acquittal. On the other hand, star witness Cohen did the prosecution no favors. Hung would be a fair bet.
But what happens if Trump is found guilty on at least some of the charges? Will they actually throw him in jail pending appeal? It seems unlikely, but the situation is so unprecedented, who knows? And if he does go to prison, will his numbers go up or down?
What would be your guesses?
Quote: DRichI would be interested in finding a betting market that shows an over/under on how many states each candidate will win.
What would be your guesses?
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I don't know, but electionbettingodds.com has an electoral estimate. Oddly enough they have Trump at 53% to Biden's almost 38%, but they still have Biden winning the electoral votes by a hair, 270 to 268. I don't know what their process is for determining odds. Personally I don't think the electoral votes will be that close. Trump won 304 to 227 in 2016, and Biden won 306 to 232 in 2020. I think the winner this year will get in the low 300s again.
This far out the polls may mean nothing, but the expiration date is rapidly approaching for that particular mantra. Based on the polls right now I'd guess Biden wins 19 states while trump wins 31.
And can someone here from Nevada explain how Trump leads in the Silver State? In some polls it's by as much as 13 points!
Quote: DRichQuote: TigerWuQuote: DRich
I could not imagine any way Trump could win Person of the Year.
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Really? Why not? He was already Person of the Year in 2016. According to Time, the Person of the Year is selected by their editors and awarded to someone who "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year." Being the first President involved in criminal trials is pretty noteworthy. If he wins the election he will most definitely be Person of the Year.
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Interesting, I had no idea it was for "better or worse". if that is the case he could definitely get it.
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"Officially," it is "for better or for worse." However, after Ayatollah Khomeini won it in 1980, there was such a backlash against Time that it is believed that the main criteria, especially with the new owners, is, "Whoever will sell the most magazines." Case in point: Rudy Giuliani getting chosen over Osama bin Laden in 2001 - I used to joke that Time really chose "the readers and advertisers - See? We didn't choose bin Laden! Keep Reading! Keep Advertising!" Case in point 2: Taylor Swift over anybody from either side in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
However, Trump has enough supporters that he's not really considered "the bad guy," so he's still considered a viable candidate for the award if he wins the election.
As of today, May 30th:
Hung jury: +150
Conviction: -210
Bovada currently has a 73% chance of Trump being found guilty, with a conviction of at least one charge at -275.
Quote: Gialmere
And can someone here from Nevada explain how Trump leads in the Silver State? In some polls it's by as much as 13 points!
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I'm here and pretty surprised
I'm honestly not familiar with NV politics
I imagine the lead is due to the covid closures of the Strip and downtown casinos that many that worked here disagreed with years ago. These closures probably more economically devastating then to any other city. I see the closed Eastside Cannery everyday. Nice looking property. A victim of the closures that's still closed
What also helps the Republican party in NV is they are not anti abortion zealots.
I don't think anybody is afraid of losing abortion rights in NV like they are in other states
Quote: terapinedQuote: Gialmere
And can someone here from Nevada explain how Trump leads in the Silver State? In some polls it's by as much as 13 points!
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I imagine the lead is due to the covid closures of the Strip and downtown casinos that many that worked here disagreed with years ago. These closures probably more economically devastating then to any other city. I see the closed Eastside Cannery everyday. Nice looking property. A victim of the closures that's still closed
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Why would the closures from 2020 give a lead to Trump? They happened during his administration. Or are you saying people in Nevada are more sensitive economically (because of Vegas) and they think Trump would be better for the economy?
Quote: TigerWuQuote: terapinedQuote: Gialmere
And can someone here from Nevada explain how Trump leads in the Silver State? In some polls it's by as much as 13 points!
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I imagine the lead is due to the covid closures of the Strip and downtown casinos that many that worked here disagreed with years ago. These closures probably more economically devastating then to any other city. I see the closed Eastside Cannery everyday. Nice looking property. A victim of the closures that's still closed
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Why would the closures from 2020 give a lead to Trump? They happened during his administration. Or are you saying people in Nevada are more sensitive economically (because of Vegas) and they think Trump would be better for the economy?
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WTF do I know
Lol
I just figured the right side of the state were against the casino closures
Why do you think NV leans right ?
Usually urban areas lean left
Kind of weird
But then seeing gambling in a grocery store or gas station is weird
Vegas is weird
Quote: TigerWuFound some odds for the "hush money" trial that's currently going on with Trump.
As of today, May 30th:
Hung jury: +150
Conviction: -210
Bovada currently has a 73% chance of Trump being found guilty, with a conviction of at least one charge at -275.
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Well, I hope someone got some bets in.
Trump found guilty on all 34 counts.
Quote: terapinedQuote: Gialmere
And can someone here from Nevada explain how Trump leads in the Silver State? In some polls it's by as much as 13 points!
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I'm here and pretty surprised
I'm honestly not familiar with NV politics
I imagine the lead is due to the covid closures of the Strip and downtown casinos that many that worked here disagreed with years ago. These closures probably more economically devastating then to any other city. I see the closed Eastside Cannery everyday. Nice looking property. A victim of the closures that's still closed
What also helps the Republican party in NV is they are not anti abortion zealots.
I don't think anybody is afraid of losing abortion rights in NV like they are in other states
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The Eastside Cannery didn't close because of COVID. It was closing anyway because the locals market where it is is dominated y Sam's Town and Boulder Station. It was a decent property when it opened but it didn't offer anything that wasn't found at the bigger casinos. Well, that is not true. They did open with a "buffet" where you ordered off of a menu.
Quote: TigerWuTrump's election odds are currently the highest they've been since January 2023.
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Will be interesting to check back on these numbers in a few days.
electionbettingodds.com (updated more frequently)
realclearpolling.com
Quote: TigerWuTrump's odds of winning took a small but noticeable hit after the verdict, but it looks like he's starting to come back.
electionbettingodds.com (updated more frequently)
realclearpolling.com
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Too early to get a good read. Real polling usually takes 2-3 days. By Monday we will have decent numbers.
Quote: ams288Quote: TigerWuTrump's election odds are currently the highest they've been since January 2023.
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Will be interesting to check back on these numbers in a few days.
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Pretty much what was expected, not interesting at all. Two weeks ago Trump is leading by 8 after the verdict he's leading by 18. Exactly what everybody said would happen.
Quote: EvenBob
Pretty much what was expected, not interesting at all. Two weeks ago Trump is leading by 8 after the verdict he's leading by 18. Exactly what everybody said would happen.
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Seems legit. /s
These charts are all as of today going back to May 1st.
Real Clear Politics:
electionbettingodds.com:
Interestingly, in non-betting general election polling, Trump didn't see any noticeable "conviction bump," and he and Biden are still almost neck and neck:
fivethirtyeight poll aggregate:
Quote: DRichFor those of you that still think Trump is going to win, give me +125 that he does not and I will bet.
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This is a pretty unbiased article about how swing state voters view him after his 34 count conviction:
'Speechless': Swing state voters react to Donald Trump's guilty verdict
Yes, some are undeterred, but the polling includes statements such as the following:
Erin Dickey, a 21-year-old student at Arizona State University, was not old enough to vote in the 2020 election but says she now follows national politics. She is unsure if she will vote in this election, saying she “doesn’t love either option.”
Reflecting on Trump’s conviction, she said, “I’m not surprised, but I am looking forward to seeing how it all plays out. That’s a lot of things to be found guilty on.”
There's some interesting scenarios to consider. For example, what if, despite the current polls, Biden wins Georgia again? Or, what if Trump ekes out a victory in wobbling Virginia? Still, after messing around with the map, it all seems to come down to the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. God only knows what type of advertising assault those citizens will be doomed to endure.
Quote: GialmereIf you like to noodle, you might enjoy playing around with the RCP Create Your Own Map feature. The page shows a map of the US red and blue states with battlegrounds colored gray. Simply click on any state to change its orientation and watch the Electoral College numbers adjust accordingly. You can also begin with "no toss ups" which colors the battleground states based on the current polls (no matter how slim the lead). Or, travel back in time and begin with the 2020 or 2016 election results and adjust from there.
There's some interesting scenarios to consider. For example, what if, despite the current polls, Biden wins Georgia again? Or, what if Trump ekes out a victory in wobbling Virginia? Still, after messing around with the map, it all seems to come down to the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. God only knows what type of advertising assault those citizens will be doomed to endure.
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Will be? They are already bombing us with ads. And I don’t even watch and broadcast tv!
Quote: gordonm888This election is starting to resemble that Will Ferrell satire/comedy film (with Zack Galifionkas??). All sides, all candidates, I'm not taking sides, its just so surreal. Its hard to feel confident about any election day predictions because there is no meaningful historical precedent. Turnout and motivation to vote are hard to judge.
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I think this is a great post.
How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon? If they hate both candidates will they abstain or pick the one they hate less?
What will the ‘Kennedy effect’ actually be?
I wish Election Day was tomorrow to get this over with.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888This election is starting to resemble that Will Ferrell satire/comedy film (with Zack Galifionkas??). All sides, all candidates, I'm not taking sides, its just so surreal. Its hard to feel confident about any election day predictions because there is no meaningful historical precedent. Turnout and motivation to vote are hard to judge.
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I think this is a great post.
How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon? If they hate both candidates will they abstain or pick the one they hate less?
What will the ‘Kennedy effect’ actually be?
I wish Election Day was tomorrow to get this over with.
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Seriously, try and keep your posts about election betting and not bore us with your too cents opinions. That's what gets this thread closed.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888This election is starting to resemble that Will Ferrell satire/comedy film (with Zack Galifionkas??). All sides, all candidates, I'm not taking sides, its just so surreal. Its hard to feel confident about any election day predictions because there is no meaningful historical precedent. Turnout and motivation to vote are hard to judge.
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I think this is a great post.
How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon? If they hate both candidates will they abstain or pick the one they hate less?
What will the ‘Kennedy effect’ actually be?
I wish Election Day was tomorrow to get this over with.
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Seriously, try and keep your posts about election betting and not bore us with your too cents opinions. That's what gets this thread closed.
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It is about betting. Point being it will be difficult to figure out who will win as these are unprecedented scenarios. Sorry if you couldn’t figure that out without me spelling it out for you. That’s not my fault. My points weren’t opinions. They were questions. Look up the difference.
Quote: SOOPOO
How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon?
Marion Barry was caught smoking crack on camera and later regained his office after he did his time. So, yes, they will, at least on some level.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOO
How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon?
Marion Barry was caught smoking crack on camera and later regained his office after he did his time. So, yes, they will, at least on some level.
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I think that's a somewhat lower profile office and a much narrower constituency.
Metaphorically, I might buy a used car from a felon while disapproving of him dating my daughter.
I haven't noticed much intense campaigning in those 3 states, but I can't tell you if it's not there or if I've just gone noseblind to it.
1. An incumbent versus a former president. Both candidates are well-known and thus spending on political ads may have reduced efficacy.
2. Two unusually unpopular candidates and the existence of a non-trivial segment of voters who hate both major candidates. Will they cross party lines? Hold their noses and vote for their party's candidate? Make a protest vote for Kennedy? And to what extent will they stay home and not vote. (Note: we don't want to hear explanations as to why you think the candidates are unpopular).
3. The polarizing nature of the Israel-Hamas war and the existence of motivated single-issue voters (American Jews and Palestinians) with incompatible viewpoints.
4. Shifts in voter demographics:
___a) Migration of voters from Blue to Red states, perhaps rendering some Red states more purple. Georgia was a clear example of this last election.
___b) As reported by polls, shifts in voter preferences from Democrat to Republican in some demographic groups (e,g., young voters, hispanics, and blacks, particularly black males.)
5. Non-traditional candidates: Third Party Candidate: Robert Kennedy, Jr. Waiters in the wings investing in the deadpool: Nikki Haley, Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom and Joe Mancin (I hear from friends in WV that Manchin is planning something - sounds like a long-shot to me, but I don't know everything.)
6. Lawfare (an entirely new word) - whether Trump's ability to campaign will be limited by his legal issues, Hunter Biden's legal issues and the admission/revelation that his laptop is real and how a skeptical public factors this kind of stuff into their decisions.
7. The degree of political polarization and the incredibly shrill and combative tones of the political attacks.
The one unusual issue that appears to be resolved is efforts to keep the two major candidates off the ballots in particular states. (Biden in Alabama and Ohio, Trump in as many as 13 states.)
I do think it's important to understand sources of variance in 2024 election wagers, and I've attempted to make the above list as academic in tone as possible. However, there's always the chance that Wiz or Dieter may disagree and come over the top and I'll need to self-sentence into the phantom zone and keep Bill Ryan company, LOL.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOO
How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon?
Marion Barry was caught smoking crack on camera and later regained his office after he did his time. So, yes, they will, at least on some level.
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Not only that it totally depends on what the felony is. If it's rape, or molesting a small child, or killing somebody in a bank robbery that's one thing. If it's a messed up White Collar misdemeanor charge that was inexplicitly bumped up to some convoluted felony that nobody can even tell you what it is, that's something different entirely. That kind of charge just turns you into a martyr and a folk hero.
