Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 1050
February 13th, 2020 at 11:53:13 AM permalink
Hmm... You have to figure Sanders will win California while Bloomberg will win New York and probably New Jersey. What about Texas and Florida?

Meanwhile, the former mayor of South Bend is an interesting wild card. Can Buttigieg get a bandwagon effect rolling? And what states does he appeal to?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 422
  • Posts: 23699
February 13th, 2020 at 12:05:53 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Can Buttigieg get a bandwagon effect rolling?



Look at just one criteria. Bernie packs
stadiums, Buttigieg packs Jr High
lunch rooms. These are the things
horse bettors look for, is the track
dry or wet.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1002
February 13th, 2020 at 6:11:09 PM permalink
What do you predict the odds will be (on a Trump general election win) once a Democrat nominee is selected (mid-July convention)?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 106
  • Posts: 6234
February 13th, 2020 at 6:31:03 PM permalink
So was watching CNN and Chris Cuomo teased that he will be talking to the Wizard of Odds to discuss the Democratic nominee! I suffered through around eight commercials and then some really young guy who called himself the Wizard of Odds started discussing the election!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1276
  • Posts: 20976
February 13th, 2020 at 6:31:49 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Bernie is a bad bet to actually be the nominee.



Here are the going lines on Bernie to the the Dem nominee:

Yes +135
No -155

How about we split the the difference, you bet the no against me at -145 odds?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 2173
February 13th, 2020 at 7:17:33 PM permalink
Probably the only way Trump loses the Republican nomination is to die or come down with a debiliating disease or stroke.

This is a non-trivial probability factor with Bernie, Bloomberg and even with Elizabeth Warren (age 70.).

Running for President is high stress and campaigning involves a lot of physical wear and tear. And these are elderly people who are at higher risk anyway.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 385
February 13th, 2020 at 8:23:31 PM permalink
Mid- October 2016 I bet £100 on Trump at +500. I had a friend in London make the bet for me, it was at Betfair or Ladbrokes, I donít recall which.

That had to have been the most positive EV wager of my life. Regardless of what the polls/news said, many of us knew that it was a 50/50 race...no way was Trump a 1 in 6 long shot.
Itís all about making that GTA
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 195
  • Posts: 7356
February 13th, 2020 at 8:32:23 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Hmm... You have to figure Sanders will win California while Bloomberg will win New York and probably New Jersey. What about Texas and Florida?

Meanwhile, the former mayor of South Bend is an interesting wild card. Can Buttigieg get a bandwagon effect rolling? And what states does he appeal to?



Buttigeg is gay, that's a huge risk. Enough people don't want a first gentleman.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker.
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 3310
February 13th, 2020 at 11:31:30 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



That said, as of this post, on Feb 12, 2020, one may lay -150 on Trump to win the general election at 5dimes. I personally bet this. The line moved to -160 and I bet it again. The most that may be bet is $250 or to win $250, whichever is more. If any forum members I personally know wish to take the other side (betting against Trump), please PM me.



You can buy shares of Trump right now at PredictIt for 0.55 = -122. The limit is $850. There is a 10 percent commission on any profits (and only profits) and a 5 percent withdrawal fee. The latter can be postponed (and minimized) by never withdrawing until you are ready to retire on political markets completely.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
Minty
Minty
Joined: Jan 23, 2015
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 417
February 14th, 2020 at 12:39:52 AM permalink
I agree that it would be really unlikely to see any other candidate be the Republicans nominee besides Trump. Even age considered, I'd still expect him to make it through without a critical health incident. Likewise, I'd be surprised if a Democrat was to pass due to health complications. Bernie had heart surgery recently an kept on going shortly after. Buttigieg has some strong financial support from those who have quite a bit to give. Bloomberg's ads are increasingly present, and his wealth will no doubt aid him in his campaign. I can't confidently say who I think will end up being the Democratic nominee.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese

  • Jump to: