SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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February 13th, 2020 at 6:12:37 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

By posting when I'm too tired and making mistakes. Here is a corrected table.

Name Pays Adj. Prob
Sanders 1.35 39.4%
Bloomberg 2.4 27.2%
Buttigieg 5.5 14.3%
Biden 12 7.1%
Klobuchar 14 6.2%
Clinton 25 3.6%
Warren 50 1.8%
Steyer 450 0.2%
Gabbard 500 0.2%
Total 100.0%




Based on the corrected table, a bet on Bernie would return 0.394*2.35 =92.59%, for a house edge of 7.41%.



Odds on the Dems will really come into focus after Nevada and South Carolina. With Pete's strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, it remains to be seen if he can garner any support in more diverse states. That seems to be the only reason right now Bernie isn't chalk. If Pete really performs as badly in Nevada and South Carolina as he's polling amongst Latino's and African Americans, then Bernie will be chalk pretty quickly.

I see 5Dimes offering the field against Bloomberg at -280, that appears to be an incredible bet to me.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 13th, 2020 at 6:24:05 AM permalink
Quote: SM777



I see 5Dimes offering the field against Bloomberg at -280, that appears to be an incredible bet to me.



If it wasn't illegal to bet on the election I'd put down whatever they would allow me on that bet!
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 13th, 2020 at 7:22:12 AM permalink
Since yesterday evening, Trump has moved from -150 to -190! I'm going to keep a close eye on it and bet more if it drops. At BetFair, which doesn't take US players, the going line is 1 to win 1.68 on Trump, which equates to -147 using the American format.

Quote: SOOPOO

If it wasn't illegal to bet on the election I'd put down whatever they would allow me on that bet!



I would argue making the bet isn't illegal, just using US banks to facilitate the bet. That is a nice benefit to Bitcoin. However, my last Bitcoin transaction took 22 hours to clear.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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February 13th, 2020 at 8:03:25 AM permalink
Bernie is a bad bet to actually be the nominee. Trump wants to run against him, so the Rs are putting their thumb on the scale a bit.

You have to look at both Iowa and NH results as subgroups to see what's going on. Put all votes for Sanders and Warren in one group. Put all the others except Bloomberg in the other (because he wasn't on the ballot).

Bernie /Warren got roughly 35% of the party support. The others roughly 65%. That's holding roughly true in national polls as well.

Then you add in the Bloomberg effect. He is specifically running against the Sanders/Warren revolutionary policies. He's also unhappy with Biden, but what got him in it a few months ago was the trend toward socialistic support.

Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against, as a direct contrast. Has governed 10M people (more than the governors of most states), has actual provable billionaire wealth, not afraid to hit back or call out the truth.

67% of Dems say it's more important to beat Trump than to care about a particular issue. Of those issue-bent, 80% are Sanders/Warren supporters.

If you want to know who the candidate will be, watch the African-American and minority poll breakouts. They are finding reasons to switch from Biden to Bloomberg in a hurry in the last 2 weeks. For example, as they navigated their distaste for stop and frisk this last week, theur support for Biden has dropped 22 points, and Bloomberg has gone up 17 points, in one poll from yesterday. For them, it's an existential thing, several steps above a preference. And they're 35-40% of activist voters in the party.

Anyway, for candidate, Bloomberg straight up is the bet, or against the field, or outright for President. Bloomberg, in the general, will pull from the full spectrum, including a decent share of current Trump support.

Not my guy. Not an ad for him. Just following closely, and that's how it's playing out.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 13th, 2020 at 8:45:47 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Bernie is a bad bet to actually be the nominee. Trump wants to run against him, so the Rs are putting their thumb on the scale a bit.

You have to look at both Iowa and NH results as subgroups to see what's going on. Put all votes for Sanders and Warren in one group. Put all the others except Bloomberg in the other (because he wasn't on the ballot).

Bernie /Warren got roughly 35% of the party support. The others roughly 65%. That's holding roughly true in national polls as well.

Then you add in the Bloomberg effect. He is specifically running against the Sanders/Warren revolutionary policies. He's also unhappy with Biden, but what got him in it a few months ago was the trend toward socialistic support.

Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against, as a direct contrast. Has governed 10M people (more than the governors of most states), has actual provable billionaire wealth, not afraid to hit back or call out the truth.

67% of Dems say it's more important to beat Trump than to care about a particular issue. Of those issue-bent, 80% are Sanders/Warren supporters.

If you want to know who the candidate will be, watch the African-American and minority poll breakouts. They are finding reasons to switch from Biden to Bloomberg in a hurry in the last 2 weeks. For example, as they navigated their distaste for stop and frisk this last week, theur support for Biden has dropped 22 points, and Bloomberg has gone up 17 points, in one poll from yesterday. For them, it's an existential thing, several steps above a preference. And they're 35-40% of activist voters in the party.

Anyway, for candidate, Bloomberg straight up is the bet, or against the field, or outright for President. Bloomberg, in the general, will pull from the full spectrum, including a decent share of current Trump support.

Not my guy. Not an ad for him. Just following closely, and that's how it's playing out.



Iíll bet $100 against your $50 that Bloomberg is NOT the Democrat nominee for President! Interested?
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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February 13th, 2020 at 8:54:56 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Bernie is a bad bet to actually be the nominee. Trump wants to run against him, so the Rs are putting their thumb on the scale a bit.

You have to look at both Iowa and NH results as subgroups to see what's going on. Put all votes for Sanders and Warren in one group. Put all the others except Bloomberg in the other (because he wasn't on the ballot).

Bernie /Warren got roughly 35% of the party support. The others roughly 65%. That's holding roughly true in national polls as well.

Then you add in the Bloomberg effect. He is specifically running against the Sanders/Warren revolutionary policies. He's also unhappy with Biden, but what got him in it a few months ago was the trend toward socialistic support.

Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against, as a direct contrast. Has governed 10M people (more than the governors of most states), has actual provable billionaire wealth, not afraid to hit back or call out the truth.

67% of Dems say it's more important to beat Trump than to care about a particular issue. Of those issue-bent, 80% are Sanders/Warren supporters.

If you want to know who the candidate will be, watch the African-American and minority poll breakouts. They are finding reasons to switch from Biden to Bloomberg in a hurry in the last 2 weeks. For example, as they navigated their distaste for stop and frisk this last week, theur support for Biden has dropped 22 points, and Bloomberg has gone up 17 points, in one poll from yesterday. For them, it's an existential thing, several steps above a preference. And they're 35-40% of activist voters in the party.

Anyway, for candidate, Bloomberg straight up is the bet, or against the field, or outright for President. Bloomberg, in the general, will pull from the full spectrum, including a decent share of current Trump support.

Not my guy. Not an ad for him. Just following closely, and that's how it's playing out.



This isn't it.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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February 13th, 2020 at 9:45:20 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Iíll bet $100 against your $50 that Bloomberg is NOT the Democrat nominee for President! Interested?



No, because I don't want him to be President either. I don't like taking bets in favor of an outcome I don't want to see. Ploppy attitude, but how I roll. Thanks for the offer, though.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolfMinty
February 13th, 2020 at 9:55:56 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

No, because I don't want him to be President either. I don't like taking bets in favor of an outcome I don't want to see. Ploppy attitude, but how I roll. Thanks for the offer, though.



I'm almost the exact opposite! I figure if I liked Bloomberg (I don't) I'd bet against him. So I either win money or my candidate wins. Kind of like hedging....
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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February 13th, 2020 at 11:00:04 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against,



Reasons to bet against Bloomberg:

Too short, even he himself says that.
No name recognition outside of NY.
Wayyy too old, 79 his first year in office.'
Looks like that mean uncle you avoid at Tgiving.
Totally unlikable personality

Bernie has a huge base, packs them is at
rallies. He will be very hard to stop from
being the nominee. Safe bet.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 13th, 2020 at 11:12:40 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob



Bernie has a huge base, packs them is at
rallies. He will be very hard to stop from
being the nominee. Safe bet.



Exactly. Plus this is his second rodeo.

Now if someone can explain what is meant by the GOP having their thumbs in the scales means or how such a comment is not a blatant violation of no politics that would be great.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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