Wizard
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Wizard
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February 12th, 2020 at 8:04:42 PM permalink
I would like to begin this thread by reminding the forum of the rule against making political statements. However, discussion of betting on election is permitted so far as comments are limited to betting in nature. For example, one may state a bet offered or made, but may not state why such a bet is good or bad, unless very carefully worded to avoid any opinions of a political nature.

That said, as of this post, on Feb 12, 2020, one may lay -150 on Trump to win the general election at 5dimes. I personally bet this. The line moved to -160 and I bet it again. The most that may be bet is $250 or to win $250, whichever is more. If any forum members I personally know wish to take the other side (betting against Trump), please PM me.

Here are the lines on the Democratic Primary winner. Wins are are a "to one" basis.

Name Pays Adj. Prob
Sanders 1.35 39.4%
Bloomberg 2.4 27.2%
Buttigieg 5.5 14.3%
Biden 12 7.1%
Klobuchar 14 6.2%
Clinton 25 3.6%
Warren 50 1.8%
Steyer 450 0.2%
Gabbard 500 0.2%
Total 100.0%


Note: Table corrected

I would like to end the thread by again stating that political statements are not allowed and forum administrators will be policing this thread carefully for that.
Last edited by: Wizard on Feb 13, 2020
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 12th, 2020 at 9:00:33 PM permalink
If I bet $100 on Trump, how much would
I win.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 12th, 2020 at 9:27:24 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

If I bet $100 on Trump, how much would
I win.



If you had bet before me at 5dimes, then $66.67.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 12th, 2020 at 9:35:22 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

(snip) Here are the lines on the Democratic Primary winner. Wins are are a "to one" basis.

Name Pays Adj. Prob
Sanders 1.35 47.5%
Bloomberg 2.4 26.7%
Buttigieg 5.5 11.7%
Biden 12 5.3%
Klobuchar 14 4.6%
Clinton 25 2.6%
Warren 50 1.3%
Steyer 450 0.1%
Gabbard 500 0.1%
Total 100.0%

(snip)


How did you get the "Adj. Prob" figures?
Does this table mean you think Sanders is good value for the "Democratic Primary winner" (about +11.6% EV if I am reading it correctly) ?
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 12th, 2020 at 9:51:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

If you had bet before me at 5dimes, then $66.67.



So I would get my $100 back, plus
$66? Isn't this what happened with
that Irish betting place in 2016?
Hillary was such a lock that they
stopped taking bets on her a
month before the election
and paid everybody off so
they wouldn't lose any more
money. Will they do that with
Trump this year? It looks like
the same situation.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Thanks for this post from:
Chuckleberry
February 12th, 2020 at 10:45:44 PM permalink
Below are the lines I find interesting:

101 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election -165
102 Field wins Presidential Election +145

171 Republican wins Presidential Election -155
172 Democrat wins Presidential Election +135

173 Republican wins Presidential Election -151
174 Field wins Presidential Election +131

175 Democrat wins Presidential Election +138
176 Field wins Presidential Election -158

Is it as close to a certainty as you can get that Trump will be Republican Party's nominee for president of the United States ?
If yes, then surely "prop 173" is currently the best value at -151

----
Update:

If you think a "third party candidate" has a greater than about 1.1% chance of winning the election, then "prop 176" @ -158 is probably the best one to choose (if you are betting against a Democrat winning the election).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 12, 2020
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
February 13th, 2020 at 2:48:52 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

How did you get the "Adj. Prob" figures?



By posting when I'm too tired and making mistakes. Here is a corrected table.

Name Pays Adj. Prob
Sanders 1.35 39.4%
Bloomberg 2.4 27.2%
Buttigieg 5.5 14.3%
Biden 12 7.1%
Klobuchar 14 6.2%
Clinton 25 3.6%
Warren 50 1.8%
Steyer 450 0.2%
Gabbard 500 0.2%
Total 100.0%


Quote:

Does this table mean you think Sanders is good value for the "Democratic Primary winner" (about +11.6% EV if I am reading it correctly) ?



Based on the corrected table, a bet on Bernie would return 0.394*2.35 =92.59%, for a house edge of 7.41%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 13th, 2020 at 2:50:23 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So I would get my $100 back, plus
$66? Isn't this what happened with
that Irish betting place in 2016?
Hillary was such a lock that they
stopped taking bets on her a
month before the election
and paid everybody off so
they wouldn't lose any more
money. Will they do that with
Trump this year? It looks like
the same situation.



As I recall, at 5dimes as the election was days away you had to lay about 10 to 1 on Hilary. Some sports book, I don't recall which, did quit taking bets and paid bets on Clinton early.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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February 13th, 2020 at 3:16:01 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As I recall, at 5dimes as the election was days away you had to lay about 10 to 1 on Hilary. Some sports book, I don't recall which, did quit taking bets and paid bets on Clinton early.



After a quick search of "sports books pay early on Hillary 2016", i found the links below:

The bookie was Paddy Power (see links below, if you want more info about it).

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/after-paying-out-early-on-a-clinton-win-trump-victory-costs-irish-bookmaker-5-million.html
https://www.smh.com.au/business/election-2016-bookmakers-pay-dearly-for-unexpected-donald-trump-win-20161110-gsm0we.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/irish-bookie-already-paying-out-on-hillary-clinton-victory-bets-2016-10-18

---
I may have mentioned this in a different thread, but the odds for Trump got out to about $20 in the "live-betting" on betfair, in the last election.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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February 13th, 2020 at 3:58:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As I recall, at 5dimes as the election was days away you had to lay about 10 to 1 on Hilary. Some sports book, I don't recall which, did quit taking bets and paid bets on Clinton early.



I forget which as well, but they did the same with Obama in 2008. Trump -150 is probably a fair bet.

As to the table, There is probably value on Bernie at the moment. I'd say take Bernie and Bloomberg as a hedge. At the moment the rest seem impossible, After next two weeks Bernie may require you to lay money.

The dark horse issue is do they play games with readding supers or some other way to railroad him at the convention. But I think that will be all talk and no action. In the end they will decide to win or go down with who is picked and get a better system in 2024.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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