AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 14th, 2020 at 3:42:20 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Mid- October 2016 I bet £100 on Trump at +500. I had a friend in London make the bet for me, it was at Betfair or Ladbrokes, I donít recall which.

That had to have been the most positive EV wager of my life. Regardless of what the polls/news said, many of us knew that it was a 50/50 race...no way was Trump a 1 in 6 long shot.



That is the effect of outsiders setting the odds I think. I might have taken some of that had I been in London. Except for my rule of not betting what you care about.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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February 14th, 2020 at 8:04:57 AM permalink


What kind of odds can I get that Donald loses the popular vote by 3+ million but wins the EC?
Changed my avatar to a slightly less evil clown...
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 14th, 2020 at 8:12:29 AM permalink
Quote: ams288



What kind of odds can I get that Donald loses the popular vote by 3+ million but wins the EC?



I think fair odds you should get at least 2-1.
Easy to see him lose....
Easy to see him win but lose popular by less than 3 million.

I wonder what the odds are on DJT winning the popular vote? 20%?
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
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February 14th, 2020 at 9:14:34 AM permalink
It seems Bloomberg is leading in Florida (which makes sense with all the New York retirees living there), while Sanders has a substantial lead in Texas. Is there a line for a brokered convention?

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Buttigeg is gay, that's a huge risk. Enough people don't want a first gentleman.


While I agree it would be an issue in the general election, would his sexual orientation be a liability in the Democrat primary? So far, based on his showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the answer would seem to be no.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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February 14th, 2020 at 11:33:09 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

It seems Bloomberg is leading in Florida (which makes sense with all the New York retirees living there), while Sanders has a substantial lead in Texas. Is there a line for a brokered convention?


While I agree it would be an issue in the general election, would his sexual orientation be a liability in the Democrat primary? So far, based on his showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the answer would seem to be no.

It has to be,.The Democrats won't try it again after gambling with Hillary. 😎
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker.
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
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February 14th, 2020 at 1:44:56 PM permalink
It's interesting that Hillary is still getting action. According to the op chart she's a middle tier candidate albeit an undeclared one. At 25-1 it's a long shot wager but, as the campaigns head to Nevada, there she is, passing Warren.

Who is betting on her?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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February 14th, 2020 at 2:16:43 PM permalink
I was asked if it's easy for UK folk to bet on your election.
Yes. It's dead easy to wager on the US election, here and we don't pay tax on any winnings.

https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/OB_EV10187652/2020-us-presidential-election

In case that's firewalled by geolocation...

UK Notation for the odds.

donald trump 8/15
Michael Bloomberg 7/2
Bernie Sanders 9/2
Pete Buttigieg 20/1
Amy Klobuchar 25/1
Joe Biden 25/1
Hillary Clinton 50/1
Mike Pence 100/1
Elizabeth Warren 100/1
Michelle Obama 125/1
Nikki Haley 150/1
Tulsi Gabbard 150/1
Mitt Romney, Tom Steyer, Ivanka Trump, Bill Weld, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, 200/1
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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February 14th, 2020 at 7:08:43 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I was asked if it's easy for UK folk to bet on your election.
Yes. It's dead easy to wager on the US election, here and we don't pay tax on any winnings.

https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/OB_EV10187652/2020-us-presidential-election



I'm quite sure they wouldn't take a bet from the US. They have lots of sports books here in Vegas and are motivated to not jeopardize that.

In other news, Trump dropped to -150 at 5dimes so popped it again.

I am thinking about betting on Bernie to be the Dem nominee. I plan to attend on of his rallies this Friday. Any Vegas locals want to join me?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
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February 15th, 2020 at 4:55:38 PM permalink
New rumors suggest that Bloomberg will ask Hillary Clinton to be his running mate. Obviously this will not help punters betting on Clinton to actually win the nomination, but it does ramp up the antici ... pation of Bloomberg entering the race on Super Tuesday.

Meanwhile, although Buttigieg currently has a narrow delegate lead, Sanders has opened up a 10-point lead in a new national poll of registered Democrat voters.

Delegate Count
Buttigieg: 23
Sanders: 21
Warren: 8
Klobuchar: 7
Biden: 6
Bloomberg: 0 (yet to appear on a ballot)
All others: 0

Morning Consult Poll
Sanders: 29%
Biden: 19%
Bloomberg: 18%
Buttigieg: 11%
Warren: 10%
Klobuchar: 5%

[margin of error +/- 2%]
Last edited by: Gialmere on Feb 15, 2020
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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February 15th, 2020 at 8:39:50 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


I'm not sure how that rumor got started, but Hillary would be nearly useless in any traditional VP scenario.



She wouldn't be VP for long.
Bloomberg has no desire or
energy to be president, he
just wants to get Trump. He
would step down after 3
months for health reasons
and Hillary would finally
have what she wants. Good
plan, but don't bet on it.
They're both too old and have
too many skeletons. Mostly
they're too old. Hillary had no
energy 4 years ago, she has
zero now. All bets are on Trump.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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