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ams288
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March 26th, 2024 at 3:16:36 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO


Getting back on topic….. if I can get Biden at +odds I’m all over that.
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I suspect his odds will continue to increase the closer we get to election day.
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If Biden is even on the ballot in November. Lots of Insiders on both sides keep saying there's no way Biden's going to be the candidate after the convention. It certainly won't be Michelle Obama, she has said in no uncertain terms that there's no way she's running. The dark horse is Kennedy, nobody knows how many votes he's going to pull away from the Democratic candidate.
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Are the “insiders” in the room with you right now?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
terapined
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March 26th, 2024 at 4:22:54 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO


Getting back on topic….. if I can get Biden at +odds I’m all over that.
link to original post



I suspect his odds will continue to increase the closer we get to election day.
link to original post



If Biden is even on the ballot in November. Lots of Insiders on both sides keep saying there's no way Biden's going to be the candidate after the convention. It certainly won't be Michelle Obama, she has said in no uncertain terms that there's no way she's running. The dark horse is Kennedy, nobody knows how many votes he's going to pull away from the Democratic candidate.
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Are the “insiders” in the room with you right now?
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Must be the same insiders that said Biden was unable to debate last cycle
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Wizard
Administrator
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March 26th, 2024 at 4:46:33 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

If Biden is even on the ballot in November. Lots of Insiders on both sides keep saying there's no way Biden's going to be the candidate after the convention. It certainly won't be Michelle Obama, she has said in no uncertain terms that there's no way she's running. The dark horse is Kennedy, nobody knows how many votes he's going to pull away from the Democratic candidate.
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Nice to see you back EB. I know you don't bet with strangers on the Internet, but I'll lay long odds that Biden IS the candidate for his party.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
EvenBob
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March 26th, 2024 at 5:08:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



Nice to see you back EB. I know you don't bet with strangers on the Internet, but I'll lay long odds that Biden IS the candidate for his party.
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I don't do internet bets but if I did I wouldn't take that bet because I want Joe Biden to be the candidate for obvious reasons that I can't go into without getting suspended.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ChallengedMilly
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March 26th, 2024 at 5:36:38 PM permalink
I can't put any money on it but this feels like one of those horrible "Trump defies the mainstream and wins!" elections. Leftists aren't 'thrilled' about Joe and we make up a decent chunk of purple state voters. We dislike Trump immensely but hate voting usually doesn't get people to the polls. If I had to bet though, Trump winning seems like better-than-it-should-be statistically speaking.

(hopefully I'm keep in line with no-politics chat with this post, otherwise edit please)
terapined
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March 26th, 2024 at 5:46:07 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

I can't put any money on it but this feels like one of those horrible "Trump defies the mainstream and wins!" elections. Leftists aren't 'thrilled' about Joe and we make up a decent chunk of purple state voters. We dislike Trump immensely but hate voting usually doesn't get people to the polls. If I had to bet though, Trump winning seems like better-than-it-should-be statistically speaking.

(hopefully I'm keep in line with no-politics chat with this post, otherwise edit please)
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Republicans have pretty much under performed since Roevember has become a reality every fall
There should have been a huge red wave at the midterms with an unpopular President
Yet they are barely holding a majority in the House
Roevember
The party as a whole are hurting their chances in competitive races as they oppose the overwhelming majority that is pro choice
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
AZDuffman
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March 27th, 2024 at 3:40:50 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO


Getting back on topic….. if I can get Biden at +odds I’m all over that.
link to original post



I suspect his odds will continue to increase the closer we get to election day.
link to original post



If Biden is even on the ballot in November. Lots of Insiders on both sides keep saying there's no way Biden's going to be the candidate after the convention. It certainly won't be Michelle Obama, she has said in no uncertain terms that there's no way she's running. The dark horse is Kennedy, nobody knows how many votes he's going to pull away from the Democratic candidate.
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I think the party will bite their teeth and nominate him. Last 2 times a sitting POTUS did not run the GOP took it. 8 years later the Democrat Party seems to still have the "empty bench" problem they had at the end of the Obama years when they lost like 1000 elected positions nationwide over his years. If they had a rising star I could more see it happening. If this were even the 1970s I could see it happening. In today's world of too many political consultants using so much election math not so much.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 7:05:48 AM permalink
2028 is going to be a whole new ball game for President. Trump and Biden will either be too old, ineligible, or dead. Probably see Desantis take another crack along with Haley and Christie. For Democrats, who knows, but I bet Newsom is in the mix.
DRich
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March 27th, 2024 at 7:54:32 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

2028 is going to be a whole new ball game for President. Trump and Biden will either be too old, ineligible, or dead. Probably see Desantis take another crack along with Haley and Christie. For Democrats, who knows, but I bet Newsom is in the mix.
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I still have a feeling that at some point in the future Mark Cuban will run for president.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
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March 27th, 2024 at 8:53:29 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: TigerWu

2028 is going to be a whole new ball game for President. Trump and Biden will either be too old, ineligible, or dead. Probably see Desantis take another crack along with Haley and Christie. For Democrats, who knows, but I bet Newsom is in the mix.
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I still have a feeling that at some point in the future Mark Cuban will run for president.
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Doubtful. We are seeing what happens when an outsider dares run and win. Not to mention it seems his likability has been falling in recent years. He was a fun guy when he bought that "I want to draw a cat for you" thing on Shark Tank. Last few years he comes off like an old grouch.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
EvenBob
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March 27th, 2024 at 11:17:11 AM permalink
Earlier this week Trump held a 1.5 lead in a head-to-head matchup with Biden. Put Robert Kennedy Jr into the mix and Trump leads by 5. This was before RFK Jr chose his far left running mate yesterday. When the new polls come out about a three-way race this will tip it even further in Trump's favor. RFK Jr is polling at 13% now and it's only March. By October he should be polling around 20% with most of his votes coming from people who would normally vote for Biden. Democrat voters love him, especially the older Democrats where he has extreme name recognition.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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March 27th, 2024 at 11:25:41 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Earlier this week Trump held a 1.5 lead in a head-to-head matchup with Biden. Put Robert Kennedy Jr into the mix and Trump leads by 5. This was before RFK Jr chose his far left running mate yesterday. When the new polls come out about a three-way race this will tip it even further in Trump's favor. RFK Jr is polling at 13% now and it's only March. By October he should be polling around 20% with most of his votes coming from people who would normally vote for Biden. Democrat voters love him, especially the older Democrats where he has extreme name recognition.
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To compare in 1992 Perot was in a three way tie polling right before someone stopped by and said it would be a shame if something happened to his family, good to have family. He still ended up with 18% or so in the general which ended 43-39-18. The question will be are Biden voters as fed up with him as Bush41 voters were with him back then.

Summer will be a real key time. Also we might have an international problem. Perhaps we see Poles in Ukraine escalating things?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 12:31:11 PM permalink
I just want to know what the odds are of Joe Buden winning the Presidency...
EvenBob
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March 27th, 2024 at 2:54:11 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I just want to know what the odds are of Joe Buden winning the Presidency...
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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/34308-election-betting/3/#post921871
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Gialmere
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March 27th, 2024 at 5:11:55 PM permalink
Kennedy picking Shanahan is a mistake imho. If he's determined to go the distance, he needs someone with name recognition, someone who will get people talking, generate some buzz and free press. Shanahan is rich, I'll give her that (and it might be the whole point of her selection) but the only buzz I'm seeing are people asking, "Who?"

To be fair, despite all the names that were bandied about, anyone who accepts the Veep slot will become a pariah to both the left and right, so maybe she was his best choice from those actually willing.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
SOOPOO
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March 27th, 2024 at 6:06:07 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Kennedy picking Shanahan is a mistake imho. If he's determined to go the distance, he needs someone with name recognition, someone who will get people talking, generate some buzz and free press. Shanahan is rich, I'll give her that (and it might be the whole point of her selection) but the only buzz I'm seeing are people asking, "Who?"

To be fair, despite all the names that were bandied about, anyone who accepts the Veep slot will become a pariah to both the left and right, so maybe she was his best choice from those actually willing.
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He was trying to find someone who has slept with the most billionaires. That’s the way to succeed. (Musk denies it, despite the rumors).
EvenBob
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March 27th, 2024 at 8:58:11 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Kennedy picking Shanahan is a mistake imho. If he's determined to go the distance,
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No Third Party candidate in history has ever thought he would go the distance. Kennedy has his eye on 2028 obviously. He'll only be 73 and he'll do well enough in this election the people will remember him and he'll have a good chance of being nominated.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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March 28th, 2024 at 2:45:46 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gialmere

Kennedy picking Shanahan is a mistake imho. If he's determined to go the distance,
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No Third Party candidate in history has ever thought he would go the distance. Kennedy has his eye on 2028 obviously. He'll only be 73 and he'll do well enough in this election the people will remember him and he'll have a good chance of being nominated.
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Teddy Roosevelt?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2024 at 5:11:30 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gialmere

Kennedy picking Shanahan is a mistake imho. If he's determined to go the distance,
link to original post



No Third Party candidate in history has ever thought he would go the distance. Kennedy has his eye on 2028 obviously. He'll only be 73 and he'll do well enough in this election the people will remember him and he'll have a good chance of being nominated.
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Being nominated by who? Not the Democrats or Republicans.
TigerWu
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March 28th, 2024 at 7:07:04 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

I just want to know what the odds are of Joe Buden winning the Presidency...
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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/34308-election-betting/3/#post921871
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You missed the joke.....
EvenBob
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March 28th, 2024 at 7:57:54 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Being nominated by who? Not the Democrats or Republicans.
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He's a Kennedy, a name that is synonymous with the Democrat Party. Of course he'll be nominated by the Democrats, who else have they got for 28. Kennedy and everybody else knows that usually after 8 years of one president we switch parties. I believe he thinks he can sabotage any chance Joe Biden has so in 2028 people will want to replace a republican with a Democrat. He knows if Biden wins he will never have a chance in 2028. This is all just a chess game to these people.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
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March 28th, 2024 at 9:23:58 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: SOOPOO



Being nominated by who? Not the Democrats or Republicans.
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He's a Kennedy, a name that is synonymous with the Democrat Party. Of course he'll be nominated by the Democrats, who else have they got for 28. Kennedy and everybody else knows that usually after 8 years of one president we switch parties. I believe he thinks he can sabotage any chance Joe Biden has so in 2028 people will want to replace a republican with a Democrat. He knows if Biden wins he will never have a chance in 2028. This is all just a chess game to these people.
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LOL It sounds like you more than anyone want Kennedy to be President. We're pretty far out, but here's who's being talked about for a 2028 run for the Democrats. I don't see RFK Jr on that list anywhere.

But this is getting off the top of election betting. I tried googling to see if there were any odds up for 2028 yet, but I didn't find anything.
EvenBob
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March 28th, 2024 at 10:52:20 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: SOOPOO



Being nominated by who? Not the Democrats or Republicans.
link to original post



He's a Kennedy, a name that is synonymous with the Democrat Party. Of course he'll be nominated by the Democrats, who else have they got for 28. Kennedy and everybody else knows that usually after 8 years of one president we switch parties. I believe he thinks he can sabotage any chance Joe Biden has so in 2028 people will want to replace a republican with a Democrat. He knows if Biden wins he will never have a chance in 2028. This is all just a chess game to these people.
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LOL It sounds like you more than anyone want Kennedy to be President. We're pretty far out, but here's who's being talked about for a 2028 run for the Democrats. I don't see RFK Jr on that list anywhere.

But this is getting off the top of election betting. I tried googling to see if there were any odds up for 2028 yet, but I didn't find anything.
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Looking at the list you posted for 28 there's nobody on there that would have a chance of beating Kennedy. It's why he's polling at 13% which is only going to go up. Kennedy has something you cannot buy for any amount of money, family name recognition. Everybody in the United States knows who he is, the voters anyway. It's the big reason Trump won in 16, absolutely everybody knew who he was. It's the reason Ramaswami visited all 50 states, so when he runs in 28 people know who he is. It's a giant chess game and you have to plan your moves years in advance.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
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March 28th, 2024 at 12:03:14 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob


Looking at the list you posted for 28 there's nobody on there that would have a chance of beating Kennedy. It's why he's polling at 13% which is only going to go up. Kennedy has something you cannot buy for any amount of money, family name recognition. Everybody in the United States knows who he is, the voters anyway. It's the big reason Trump won in 16, absolutely everybody knew who he was. It's the reason Ramaswami visited all 50 states, so when he runs in 28 people know who he is. It's a giant chess game and you have to plan your moves years in advance.
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Well, it sounds like he definitely has your vote. Good luck with that.
EvenBob
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March 28th, 2024 at 2:46:26 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu



Well, it sounds like he definitely has your vote. Good luck with that.
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Not hardly, I just think he has a good chance of being the Democrat choice in 28.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2024 at 8:12:40 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu



Well, it sounds like he definitely has your vote. Good luck with that.
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Not hardly, I just think he has a good chance of being the Democrat choice in 28.
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Forgetting the political part of his candidacy, which I think is more than enough to not find enough Democrats to support him, he’ll be 75 if inaugurated in 2029. I believe the country is already tired of the doddering elderly as choices for President. Some younger person should emerge as an alternative to the septuagenarians and octogenarians we are now being fed.

It’s too bad you don’t bet here. I’d love to get as much money down on ‘no RFK Jr. as Democrat nominee’ as you could afford to lose.
terapined
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March 28th, 2024 at 8:41:39 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu



Well, it sounds like he definitely has your vote. Good luck with that.
link to original post



Not hardly, I just think he has a good chance of being the Democrat choice in 28.
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Forgetting the political part of his candidacy, which I think is more than enough to not find enough Democrats to support him, he’ll be 75 if inaugurated in 2029. I believe the country is already tired of the doddering elderly as choices for President. Some younger person should emerge as an alternative to the septuagenarians and octogenarians we are now being fed.

It’s too bad you don’t bet here. I’d love to get as much money down on ‘no RFK Jr. as Democrat nominee’ as you could afford to lose.
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If you are an elderly senior citizen, yea, the name Kennedy resonates.
Most voters, the Kennedy name is meaningless
Especially 2028 when just about anybody that remembers JFK or RFK are in a nursing home if they havent passed away already.
The Kennedy era is ancient history
In the age of the internet, RFK jr is already labeled an extremist clown
Stuff like that doesnt wash off easy
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
EvenBob
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March 28th, 2024 at 9:38:06 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



It’s too bad you don’t bet here. I’d love to get as much money down on ‘no RFK Jr. as Democrat nominee’ as you could afford to lose.
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Because financial transactions usually work out so well on the internet. Just ask Mission. Where the heck is he, by the way. Oh, that's right.

Never mind..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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March 29th, 2024 at 2:34:00 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu



Well, it sounds like he definitely has your vote. Good luck with that.
link to original post



Not hardly, I just think he has a good chance of being the Democrat choice in 28.
link to original post



Forgetting the political part of his candidacy, which I think is more than enough to not find enough Democrats to support him, he’ll be 75 if inaugurated in 2029. I believe the country is already tired of the doddering elderly as choices for President. Some younger person should emerge as an alternative to the septuagenarians and octogenarians we are now being fed.

It’s too bad you don’t bet here. I’d love to get as much money down on ‘no RFK Jr. as Democrat nominee’ as you could afford to lose.
link to original post



Seems a fair line for that is about -20000.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TigerWu
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March 29th, 2024 at 6:16:10 AM permalink
EvenBob was absolutely convinced that Hillary Clinton would be the 2020 Democrat nominee, too. He doesn't have the greatest track record with these kinds of predictions.
terapined
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March 29th, 2024 at 7:03:47 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

EvenBob was absolutely convinced that Hillary Clinton would be the 2020 Democrat nominee, too. He doesn't have the greatest track record with these kinds of predictions.
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According to him
Trump won in 2020
That says a lot :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
TigerWu
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March 29th, 2024 at 7:38:14 AM permalink
So I was just looking back at the 2020 election odds, and Trump was leading Biden by about what he is now, around this same time. Then June 2020 hits and there's a massive reversal in odds that Trump never recovers from. I wonder if we'll see anything like that happen this year.
terapined
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March 29th, 2024 at 8:12:22 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

So I was just looking back at the 2020 election odds, and Trump was leading Biden by about what he is now, around this same time. Then June 2020 hits and there's a massive reversal in odds that Trump never recovers from. I wonder if we'll see anything like that happen this year.
link to original post


The more the republican party ignores the abortion issue
The odds will slowly but surely shift to Dems in all competitive races
The religious right demanding a ban on mifepristone or a national abortion ban will accelerate the odds in the Dems favor
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Gialmere
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March 29th, 2024 at 8:23:03 AM permalink
Kennedy has received a small bump with punters. He has leaped past both Newsome and Harris in the betting but still trails Obama, who herself is down more that 50% from her highs.

Meanwhile, super PACs on both the left and right are releasing ads attacking Kennedy. It must be an interesting challenge to write such an ad. The game is to make him look utterly repulsive to your own base while simultaneously make him appear an attractive and viable alternative to the other side's base.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
EvenBob
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March 29th, 2024 at 10:16:00 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

So I was just looking back at the 2020 election odds, and Trump was leading Biden by about what he is now, around this same time. Then June 2020 hits and there's a massive reversal in odds that Trump never recovers from. I wonder if we'll see anything like that happen this year.
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The big difference, the huge difference, was Biden was ahead of Trump in every single poll in 2020 from April to election day. This time it's almost a polar opposite, Trump is ahead in just about every poll. The odds changed for Biden in 2020 when he became the actual candidate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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March 29th, 2024 at 11:03:57 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Then June 2020 hits and there's a massive reversal in odds that Trump never recovers from.
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I just looked it up to refresh my memory. 27 people were running for president on the Democrat side in 2020. Then it got narrowed down to five or six contenders and it wasn't until June that Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee and that's when it became a head-to-head race between him and Trump and that's when the odds changed because every single poll was hugely in favor of Joe Biden. This is not a mystery and it's not going to happen again this year because it's totally different now. Unless the polls make a 100% reversal the odds makers are going to have it in favor of Trump all the way to the election.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Gialmere
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SOOPOO
March 29th, 2024 at 1:29:31 PM permalink
I agree. The comparison is almost (but not quite) apples to oranges. Consider that last election there was a pandemic going on featuring lockdowns, school closures, and a toilet paper shortage. Then there were the riots/mostly peaceful protests taking place across the country. Finally, in 2020 voters were looking at Trump and wondering if they were better off than they were four years earlier. This year, they're wondering about Biden.

The 2024 election is an almost unprecedented situation where voters can look at two candidates side-by-side and directly compare their records after four years in the Whitehouse. But, add in the health and legal issues, plus the random chance of bridge collapses, hurricane responses, terror attacks et al and I confess to being baffled about who to bet on.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
terapined
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March 29th, 2024 at 1:32:14 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I agree. The comparison is almost (but not quite) apples to oranges. Consider that last election there was a pandemic going on featuring lockdowns, school closures, and a toilet paper shortage. Then there were the riots/mostly peaceful protests taking place across the country. Finally, in 2020 voters were looking at Trump and wondering if they were better off than they were four years earlier. This year, they're wondering about Biden.

The 2024 election is an almost unprecedented situation where voters can look at two candidates side-by-side and directly compare their records after four years in the Whitehouse. But, add in the health and legal issues, plus the random chance of bridge collapses, hurricane responses, terror attacks et al and I confess to being baffled about who to bet on.
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The incumbent always has a huge advantage
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
EvenBob
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March 29th, 2024 at 3:06:03 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Quote: Gialmere

I agree. The comparison is almost (but not quite) apples to oranges. Consider that last election there was a pandemic going on featuring lockdowns, school closures, and a toilet paper shortage. Then there were the riots/mostly peaceful protests taking place across the country. Finally, in 2020 voters were looking at Trump and wondering if they were better off than they were four years earlier. This year, they're wondering about Biden.

The 2024 election is an almost unprecedented situation where voters can look at two candidates side-by-side and directly compare their records after four years in the Whitehouse. But, add in the health and legal issues, plus the random chance of bridge collapses, hurricane responses, terror attacks et al and I confess to being baffled about who to bet on.
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The incumbent always has a huge advantage
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Is that why Ford, Carter, Bush Sr, and Trump, lost? Because they had such a big advantage?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ChallengedMilly
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March 29th, 2024 at 3:22:09 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



I think the party will bite their teeth and nominate him. Last 2 times a sitting POTUS did not run the GOP took it. 8 years later the Democrat Party seems to still have the "empty bench" problem they had at the end of the Obama years when they lost like 1000 elected positions nationwide over his years. If they had a rising star I could more see it happening. If this were even the 1970s I could see it happening. In today's world of too many political consultants using so much election math not so much.
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There are some genuine rising stars in the DNC nation wide, the problem is none of them have the 'sexy' factor in terms of being larger than life character that people can instantly love or hate. Gavin is a solid left-of-center dude with sensible right-of-center ideas on a few things, but his leftist ideas are big 'no nos' for centrists, so he squanders any gains he could have by not being hardline left. AOC is on the extremely practical side of leftist politics in america but she's polarized center-right and right wingers. Whitmer can in theory get center-right folks on her side, but she isn't larger than life and pretty boring imho. She also alienates some on the left.

There's a bunch more if you're way into politics, but none of them have really hit the 'big time' in terms of mass media presence. Beto in Texas had a decent shot at it but lost pretty badly.
Last edited by: ChallengedMilly on Mar 29, 2024
unJon
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March 29th, 2024 at 3:55:16 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: terapined

Quote: Gialmere

I agree. The comparison is almost (but not quite) apples to oranges. Consider that last election there was a pandemic going on featuring lockdowns, school closures, and a toilet paper shortage. Then there were the riots/mostly peaceful protests taking place across the country. Finally, in 2020 voters were looking at Trump and wondering if they were better off than they were four years earlier. This year, they're wondering about Biden.

The 2024 election is an almost unprecedented situation where voters can look at two candidates side-by-side and directly compare their records after four years in the Whitehouse. But, add in the health and legal issues, plus the random chance of bridge collapses, hurricane responses, terror attacks et al and I confess to being baffled about who to bet on.
link to original post


The incumbent always has a huge advantage
link to original post



Is that why Ford, Carter, Bush Sr, and Trump, lost? Because they had such a big advantage?
link to original post



“In spite of”
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
EvenBob
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March 29th, 2024 at 4:32:57 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: terapined

Quote: Gialmere

I agree. The comparison is almost (but not quite) apples to oranges. Consider that last election there was a pandemic going on featuring lockdowns, school closures, and a toilet paper shortage. Then there were the riots/mostly peaceful protests taking place across the country. Finally, in 2020 voters were looking at Trump and wondering if they were better off than they were four years earlier. This year, they're wondering about Biden.

The 2024 election is an almost unprecedented situation where voters can look at two candidates side-by-side and directly compare their records after four years in the Whitehouse. But, add in the health and legal issues, plus the random chance of bridge collapses, hurricane responses, terror attacks et al and I confess to being baffled about who to bet on.
link to original post


The incumbent always has a huge advantage
link to original post



Is that why Ford, Carter, Bush Sr, and Trump, lost? Because they had such a big advantage?
link to original post



“In spite of”
link to original post



Obviously the incumbent does not have an advantage. In the last eight presidents four of them were not elected to a second term. That means being the incumbent gave them no advantage at all.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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March 29th, 2024 at 4:38:04 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: unJon

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: terapined

Quote: Gialmere

I agree. The comparison is almost (but not quite) apples to oranges. Consider that last election there was a pandemic going on featuring lockdowns, school closures, and a toilet paper shortage. Then there were the riots/mostly peaceful protests taking place across the country. Finally, in 2020 voters were looking at Trump and wondering if they were better off than they were four years earlier. This year, they're wondering about Biden.

The 2024 election is an almost unprecedented situation where voters can look at two candidates side-by-side and directly compare their records after four years in the Whitehouse. But, add in the health and legal issues, plus the random chance of bridge collapses, hurricane responses, terror attacks et al and I confess to being baffled about who to bet on.
link to original post


The incumbent always has a huge advantage
link to original post



Is that why Ford, Carter, Bush Sr, and Trump, lost? Because they had such a big advantage?
link to original post



“In spite of”
link to original post



Obviously the incumbent does not have an advantage. In the last eight presidents four of them were not elected to a second term. That means being the incumbent gave them no advantage at all.
link to original post



Incumbents losing usually relates to extraordinary reasons. Ford was never elected the first time and was a very accidental POTUS. Bush41 lost in a 3 way race. Trump was dealing with the china virus as well as an establishment making new election rules as they went. Carter had every disaster imaginable happen on his watch but was still polling well and the media was amazed at his wipeout.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
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March 29th, 2024 at 7:07:29 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Quote: SOOPOO



I think the party will bite their teeth and nominate him. Last 2 times a sitting POTUS did not run the GOP took it. 8 years later the Democrat Party seems to still have the "empty bench" problem they had at the end of the Obama years when they lost like 1000 elected positions nationwide over his years. If they had a rising star I could more see it happening. If this were even the 1970s I could see it happening. In today's world of too many political consultants using so much election math not so much.
link to original post



There are some genuine rising stars in the DNC nation wide, the problem is none of them have the 'sexy' factor in terms of being larger than life character that people can instantly love or hate. Gavin is a solid left-of-center dude with sensible right-of-center ideas on a few things, but his leftist ideas are big 'no nos' for centrists, so he squanders any gains he could have by not being hardline left. AOC is on the extremely practical side of leftist politics in america but she's polarized center-right and right wingers. Whitmer can in theory get center-right folks on her side, but she isn't larger than life and pretty boring imho. She also alienates some on the left.

There's a bunch more if you're way into politics, but none of them have really hit the 'big time' in terms of mass media presence. Beto in Texas had a decent shot at it but lost pretty badly.
link to original post



You quoted an AZDuffman post but attributed it to me.

You should be drawn and quartered…
EvenBob
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March 29th, 2024 at 9:39:13 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman



Incumbents losing usually relates to extraordinary reasons. Ford was never elected the first time and was a very accidental POTUS. Bush41 lost in a 3 way race. Trump was dealing with the china virus as well as an establishment making new election rules as they went. Carter had every disaster imaginable happen on his watch but was still polling well and the media was amazed at his wipeout.
link to original post



Any way you slice it being the incumbent does not automatically give you an advantage as past elections have shown.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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March 30th, 2024 at 3:51:16 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman



Incumbents losing usually relates to extraordinary reasons. Ford was never elected the first time and was a very accidental POTUS. Bush41 lost in a 3 way race. Trump was dealing with the china virus as well as an establishment making new election rules as they went. Carter had every disaster imaginable happen on his watch but was still polling well and the media was amazed at his wipeout.
link to original post



Any way you slice it being the incumbent does not automatically give you an advantage as past elections have shown.
link to original post




They do not call it the advantage of incumbency for nothing.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
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March 30th, 2024 at 3:52:38 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ChallengedMilly

Quote: SOOPOO



I think the party will bite their teeth and nominate him. Last 2 times a sitting POTUS did not run the GOP took it. 8 years later the Democrat Party seems to still have the "empty bench" problem they had at the end of the Obama years when they lost like 1000 elected positions nationwide over his years. If they had a rising star I could more see it happening. If this were even the 1970s I could see it happening. In today's world of too many political consultants using so much election math not so much.
link to original post



There are some genuine rising stars in the DNC nation wide, the problem is none of them have the 'sexy' factor in terms of being larger than life character that people can instantly love or hate. Gavin is a solid left-of-center dude with sensible right-of-center ideas on a few things, but his leftist ideas are big 'no nos' for centrists, so he squanders any gains he could have by not being hardline left. AOC is on the extremely practical side of leftist politics in america but she's polarized center-right and right wingers. Whitmer can in theory get center-right folks on her side, but she isn't larger than life and pretty boring imho. She also alienates some on the left.

There's a bunch more if you're way into politics, but none of them have really hit the 'big time' in terms of mass media presence. Beto in Texas had a decent shot at it but lost pretty badly.
link to original post



You quoted an AZDuffman post but attributed it to me.

You should be drawn and quartered…
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I thought the penalty was keelhauling?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
EvenBob
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April 1st, 2024 at 1:55:04 PM permalink
Michelle Obama doesn't better than Biden does against Trump, she would still lose. And figure Kennedy into that and the loss is even bigger. But she has no interest in running, why are they even polling it.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
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April 1st, 2024 at 2:07:26 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Michelle Obama doesn't better than Biden does against Trump, she would still lose. And figure Kennedy into that and the loss is even bigger. But she has no interest in running, why are they even polling it.
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It's fanfiction. Some people are obsessed with Michelle Obama. And it's not even people that like her. People that hate her can't stop talking about her.
EvenBob
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April 2nd, 2024 at 11:16:15 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

Michelle Obama doesn't better than Biden does against Trump, she would still lose. And figure Kennedy into that and the loss is even bigger. But she has no interest in running, why are they even polling it.
link to original post



It's fanfiction. Some people are obsessed with Michelle Obama. And it's not even people that like her. People that hate her can't stop talking about her.
link to original post



I don't love her I don't hate her, I have no feelings about her. Like most first ladies she was a non-entity when her husband was president I can't remember anything she did. Why on Earth would I want to vote for her for president or why would anybody. I don't get it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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