AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:05:07 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

That seems to be the most likely scenario. Biden still leads in South Carolina. Should he win there and place second (especially a strong second) in Nevada, he would be viable again heading into Super Tuesday.

Then (so the theory goes) Biden, Bloomberg and (to a lesser extent) Buttigieg would split the moderate/establishment vote. Only Warren can outflank Sanders to the left but her numbers have nosedived. Thus Sanders could win state after state with a solid plurality and emerge from Super Tuesday the undisputed front-runner.



Warren's hopes died last week but everyone is afraid to tell her to go back to the reservation and do what she plans on doing. She keeps acting and sounding more foolish and desperate. The Democrat Party "viability" rule will keep doing her in. IMHO all that is really keeping her going is someone, somewhere saying "we can't have yet another woman fall by the wayside so soon."

Bernie will keep winning pluaralities though not majorities. After Super Tuesday I look for him to have enough to at the least deny anyone else an outright win even if he coasts the rest of the way.

Biden has to hope he gets most of the non-socialist vote. Thing is it is getting hard to see how much of that is left in the party.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:07:56 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It happens. IIRC it was unthinkable that the GOP would sweep congress but one guy on one show said, "They might take it."


If you're talking about 1994, the person I am thinking of that did this was Jack Germond on The McLaughlin Group - and, if I remember correctly, he did it in late 1993, and the other four panelists pretty much laughed at him.

Quote: AZDuffman

The mainstream media all follow each other. They do not go off message. Add in bad polling. Add in that they did not consider the EC.

It was much the same in 1980, the media thought it would be close. It was over before polls closed in the west.


It was over just before a lot of polls closed in the east. I remember just about being ready to leave my dorm room for dinner at 5:00 (Pacific) when I saw on TV that Reagan had enough electoral votes to win the election. Even the show Fridays (remember when Larry David was a liberal?) joked about it; "President Carter considered conceding the election at 11 AM on election day, but decided to wait until 8:30 PM Eastern, so that only Californians would be screwed out of their vote." Keep in mind the show aired live out of Los Angeles.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:18:04 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It happens. IIRC it was unthinkable that the GOP would sweep congress but one guy on one show said, "They might take it." IMHO with Trump it was as much about how implausable it was for him to have even gotten that far. Predicting him to win was like predicting that Buffalo Bills to have won the most recent Superbowl.

If you go out on such a limb and are wrong you lose much face. If you predicted Hillary you just say, "we all got surprised." Clearly the sources you cite were confident enough they went out on a limb.



I was a kid as well, second election I remember. Things were awful, made 2008 look like great times. Yet somehow they thought Carter had a chance.




In 1975, I don't think anyone outside of Georgia had even heard of Carter. 18 months later, he's in the WH. If I were a professor (ha ha), and I were in charge of setting up a political science course, one with REAL history, I would make the whole class about the making of Carter. Fascinating. But since then, and especially after 1980, it's been fairly easy to see who "THEY" wanted in the WH. Of course, they are good poker players, they leave themselves outs. There's always a backdoor flush possible. In 1980, all three candidates represented the same "entity", including "independent" John Anderson. "They" couldn't miss. There were a lot of pissed off republicans when Bush was chosen to be RR's running mate. And it wasn't RR who chose him. They told RR who was going to be his running mate. As always, he took orders. He BETTER take orders.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:30:33 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If you're talking about 1994, the person I am thinking of that did this was Jack Germond on The McLaughlin Group - and, if I remember correctly, he did it in late 1993, and the other four panelists pretty much laughed at him.



I forget who because I heard it way after when someone somewhere mentioned it on some show. Even at the time we knew it was earthshaking, What we did not know was how it would be a model for a party pushing something unpopular would forever after pay the price the next election.

Quote:

It was over just before a lot of polls closed in the east. I remember just about being ready to leave my dorm room for dinner at 5:00 (Pacific) when I saw on TV that Reagan had enough electoral votes to win the election. Even the show Fridays (remember when Larry David was a liberal?) joked about it; "President Carter considered conceding the election at 11 AM on election day, but decided to wait until 8:30 PM Eastern, so that only Californians would be screwed out of their vote." Keep in mind the show aired live out of Los Angeles.



There of course is coverage of it on YT. It is fun to watch because back then Red/Blue was not established and the GOP was blue on some networks. It was not the landslide of 72 or 84, but that one was the biggest change since 1960. Biggest to this day. It is hard to explain how you could feel the culture change overnight. I remember reading an article about Tux Rentals and how all the colorful Tuxedos just stopped renting right when Reagan took over. They ended up in Southeast Asia where they like them to this day. But in the USA it was as if the popular culture grew from teenagers to adults just like that.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
bobbartop
bobbartop
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:38:38 PM permalink
As Carter said goodbye, the national debt had not yet topped 1 trillion. I remember seeing billboards, "NO TRILLION DOLLAR NATIONAL DEBT!"

Now how d'ya like it?
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:42:23 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

As Carter said goodbye, the national debt had not yet topped 1 trillion. I remember seeing billboards, "NO TRILLION DOLLAR NATIONAL DEBT!"

Now how d'ya like it?



I remember as a kid worrying about it. Now I just figure I will die before the real collapse happens.

I read it was under Teddy Roosevelt IIRC when the budget first hit $1 Billion.

Which will happen first? The 1 Trillionth Big Mac sold or the number Quardilion being in serious use when talking about money?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
bobbartop
bobbartop
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:48:59 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

But in the USA it was as if the popular culture grew from teenagers to adults just like that.



So did the annual deficit.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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February 16th, 2020 at 4:53:03 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I remember as a kid worrying about it. Now I just figure I will die before the real collapse happens.

I read it was under Teddy Roosevelt IIRC when the budget first hit $1 Billion.




A billion ounces of silver.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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February 16th, 2020 at 5:01:09 PM permalink
Again with hindsight being 20-20, those should have been TWO EASY BETS.

Carter, because of Watergate, and big white teeth. Easy bet.

Four years later, another easy bet.

1. Doubled budget from 300 to 600 bil in four years.
2. Iran
3. Nicaragua
4. Taiwan
5. Rhodesia

EASY BET!

Easy money. lol But I was only 20, and didn't have any.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
rxwine
rxwine
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February 16th, 2020 at 5:24:48 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

I have a question. And I don't think it amounts to "discussing politics". I hope not. I don't want to get thrown in the clink with MDawg.

Anyway, last time everyone in the universe thought Hillary was a sure thing, even up to the last moments. Everyone, EXCEPT, the Los Angeles Times. If I recall, they figured it out way before anyone else. How'd they do that?

Also, I think the Investors Business Daily also figured it out way before.

Can the Los Angeles Times see the future?



I believe it is just that people are putting different weight on different factors. Ever watch the news when they are showing different Hurricane tracking models to track a path?
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?

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