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AZDuffman
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June 8th, 2024 at 10:14:57 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon?



Marion Barry was caught smoking crack on camera and later regained his office after he did his time. So, yes, they will, at least on some level.
link to original post



I think that's a somewhat lower profile office and a much narrower constituency.

Metaphorically, I might buy a used car from a felon while disapproving of him dating my daughter.


I haven't noticed much intense campaigning in those 3 states, but I can't tell you if it's not there or if I've just gone noseblind to it.
link to original post



I agree but pointing out it has happened. But both were charged with victimless crimes.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Gialmere
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June 8th, 2024 at 3:57:56 PM permalink
I see that RCP has changed Virginia's status from a "leans Biden" light blue to a "toss up" battleground gray. Trump now conceivably has a path to victory through the Sun Belt. If he can win Virginia, then victories in North Carolina, Georgia, and either Arizona or Nevada would put him back in the Oval office--no Rust Belt states needed.

Does it sound crazy? Perhaps. Biden, after all, won all these states (save NC) in 2020. But the polls in Nevada are looking pretty crazy too. And I notice that Trump was campaigning in Phoenix yesterday and will be appearing in Las Vegas tomorrow. (No doubt he'll be staying at his own hotel.)
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
terapined
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June 9th, 2024 at 11:55:37 AM permalink
Trump rally in Vegas today
It is brutally hot here
I took the 20 min walk from the Tuscany casino to the Sphere yesterday
It was tough as the heat just sucks the energy out of you
I had an airconditioned Sphere waiting for me
If you are at the Trump rally today, bring an umbrella
Absolutely no shade at the rally seating today
I hear a long line to get in then seating under the sun
Ive been to Trump rallys before. (Wiz evened offered me money to heckle. I declined)
With this heat, no way I'm going
Besides, still recovering from the weekends Sphere shows
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
TigerWu
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June 10th, 2024 at 8:06:58 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon?



Marion Barry was caught smoking crack on camera and later regained his office after he did his time. So, yes, they will, at least on some level.
link to original post



Not only that it totally depends on what the felony is. If it's rape, or molesting a small child, or killing somebody in a bank robbery that's one thing. If it's a messed up White Collar misdemeanor charge that was inexplicitly bumped up to some convoluted felony that nobody can even tell you what it is, that's something different entirely. That kind of charge just turns you into a martyr and a folk hero.
link to original post



Don't get this thread locked with irrelevant fake news. Keep it on topic.
ams288
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June 10th, 2024 at 11:24:38 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon?



Marion Barry was caught smoking crack on camera and later regained his office after he did his time. So, yes, they will, at least on some level.
link to original post



Not only that it totally depends on what the felony is. If it's rape, or molesting a small child, or killing somebody in a bank robbery that's one thing. If it's a messed up White Collar misdemeanor charge that was inexplicitly bumped up to some convoluted felony that nobody can even tell you what it is, that's something different entirely. That kind of charge just turns you into a martyr and a folk hero.
link to original post



Political posts are allowed here now?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
AZDuffman
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June 10th, 2024 at 12:47:52 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



How can we really know if people will vote for a convicted felon?



Marion Barry was caught smoking crack on camera and later regained his office after he did his time. So, yes, they will, at least on some level.
link to original post



Not only that it totally depends on what the felony is. If it's rape, or molesting a small child, or killing somebody in a bank robbery that's one thing. If it's a messed up White Collar misdemeanor charge that was inexplicitly bumped up to some convoluted felony that nobody can even tell you what it is, that's something different entirely. That kind of charge just turns you into a martyr and a folk hero.
link to original post



Don't get this thread locked with irrelevant fake news. Keep it on topic.
link to original post



Not fake news on the part of Barry.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ams288
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June 11th, 2024 at 12:23:04 PM permalink
FiveThirtyEight has started their forecast.



So basically, a coin toss. Seems correct.

*Nate Silver no longer works for 538 so direct your outrage elsewhere
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
terapined
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June 11th, 2024 at 12:38:10 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

FiveThirtyEight has started their forecast.



So basically, a coin toss. Seems correct.

*Nate Silver no longer works for 538 so direct your outrage elsewhere
link to original post


On the flip side
I believe there is no doubt with gamblers here that a Biden bet at even odds is an AP play

ABC News division is cheap. They own 538. They laid off a lot and did not renew Nates contract
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
gordonm888
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June 11th, 2024 at 1:02:09 PM permalink
I would like to know more about the model with which they "simulate" an election. What sub-models produce the variance in the outcome that is exhibited in their charts? What input variables are receiving randomly distributed values? Turnout in demographic groups? Performance in debates? Total funds available to spend on ads and campaign messages?

Does anyone understand the 538 model?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
TigerWu
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June 11th, 2024 at 2:15:20 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I would like to know more about the model with which they "simulate" an election. What sub-models produce the variance in the outcome that is exhibited in their charts? What input variables are receiving randomly distributed values? Turnout in demographic groups? Performance in debates? Total funds available to spend on ads and campaign messages?

Does anyone understand the 538 model?
link to original post



How 538's 2024 Presidential election forecast works
EvenBob
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June 11th, 2024 at 3:16:32 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

FiveThirtyEight has started their forecast.



So basically, a coin toss. Seems correct.

*Nate Silver no longer works for 538 so direct your outrage elsewhere
link to original post



Good old Nate Silver, you can take his predictions to the bank. Snicker. Now he has a 'new' process he's using. Whatever. Here was his last prediction about the outcome of the 2016 election. After it was over he had 1,427 excuses as to why he was wrong. I'm sure he has everything right this time. LOL!

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
unJon
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June 11th, 2024 at 3:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: ams288

FiveThirtyEight has started their forecast.



So basically, a coin toss. Seems correct.

*Nate Silver no longer works for 538 so direct your outrage elsewhere
link to original post



Good old Nate Silver, you can take his predictions to the bank. Snicker. Now he has a 'new' process he's using. Whatever. Here was his last prediction about the outcome of the 2016 election. After it was over he had 1,427 excuses as to why he was wrong. I'm sure he has everything right this time. LOL!


link to original post



1) 538 nor Nate Silver anymore.

2) When I lose a sports bet on a -235 favorite, my reaction isn’t that there must be something totally wrong. My reaction is that I should lose that 30% of the time or so.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ams288
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June 11th, 2024 at 3:59:44 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: ams288

FiveThirtyEight has started their forecast.



So basically, a coin toss. Seems correct.

*Nate Silver no longer works for 538 so direct your outrage elsewhere
link to original post



Good old Nate Silver, you can take his predictions to the bank. Snicker. Now he has a 'new' process he's using. Whatever. Here was his last prediction about the outcome of the 2016 election. After it was over he had 1,427 excuses as to why he was wrong. I'm sure he has everything right this time. LOL!


link to original post



What part of “Nate Silver no longer works for 538” did you not understand?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
cyberbabble
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June 11th, 2024 at 5:21:19 PM permalink
An interesting question is are the betting/prediction market projections better than 538? If you like 538 then the offshore bookies are offering you a large edge on Biden bets.

Does anyone know what the comparison between 538 and the betting markets was in the Trump/Clinton race?

The explanation for the 538 model looks like a Dilbert cartoon.

Dilbert making presentation to Boss.
Dilbert: blah, blah, blah
Boss: Great, Great, let's do this immediately.

Later
Dilbert's friend: I don't think the boss understood any of that. I didn't either. What did it all mean?
Dilbert: Nothing. I just want him to think I'm doing something.
unJon
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June 11th, 2024 at 5:36:30 PM permalink
Quote: cyberbabble

An interesting question is are the betting/prediction market projections better than 538? If you like 538 then the offshore bookies are offering you a large edge on Biden bets.

Does anyone know what the comparison between 538 and the betting markets was in the Trump/Clinton race?

The explanation for the 538 model looks like a Dilbert cartoon.

Dilbert making presentation to Boss.
Dilbert: blah, blah, blah
Boss: Great, Great, let's do this immediately.

Later
Dilbert's friend: I don't think the boss understood any of that. I didn't either. What did it all mean?
Dilbert: Nothing. I just want him to think I'm doing something.
link to original post



I wonder how either of those methods stack up against the Dow Jones, which has been pretty darn good.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Gialmere
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June 11th, 2024 at 7:35:59 PM permalink
I see that Trump pledged to end the federal tax on tips which I thought was a clever ploy when speaking to voters in a town like Vegas.

Set the politics aside for a moment. Do you think tipping taxation is fair?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
EvenBob
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June 11th, 2024 at 7:42:13 PM permalink
Quote: cyberbabble

An interesting question is are the betting/prediction market projections better than 538? If you like 538 then the offshore bookies are offering you a large edge on Biden bets.

Does anyone know what the comparison between 538 and the betting markets was in the Trump/Clinton race?

The explanation for the 538 model looks like a Dilbert cartoon.

Dilbert making presentation to Boss.
Dilbert: blah, blah, blah
Boss: Great, Great, let's do this immediately.

Later
Dilbert's friend: I don't think the boss understood any of that. I didn't either. What did it all mean?
Dilbert: Nothing. I just want him to think I'm doing something.
link to original post



Oh my God, you're absolutely right. I'm a big Dilbert fan and I didn't even see it. Good job..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
terapined
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June 11th, 2024 at 8:28:47 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I see that Trump pledged to end the federal tax on tips which I thought was a clever ploy when speaking to voters in a town like Vegas.

Set the politics aside for a moment. Do you think tipping taxation is fair?
link to original post


If your position entails occasional tips. No
If most of your income is in tips. Yes
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Wizard
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June 11th, 2024 at 9:25:33 PM permalink
Too many political posts lately. I'm closing the thread for a week.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gordonm888
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June 20th, 2024 at 9:54:07 AM permalink
Thread is re-opened. Play nice!
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
EvenBob
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June 20th, 2024 at 11:02:46 AM permalink
Since Trump became a convicted felon 3 weeks ago his odds of becoming president have gone up drastically.



"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
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June 20th, 2024 at 11:46:04 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Since Trump became a convicted felon 3 weeks ago his odds of becoming president have gone up drastically.
link to original post



Not really... they're just back up to where they were before the sharp drop he had right after the verdict.



Still trending upwards, though. We'll see if this upcoming debate moves the needle any more in one direction or the other.
DRich
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June 20th, 2024 at 12:26:23 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

Since Trump became a convicted felon 3 weeks ago his odds of becoming president have gone up drastically.
link to original post



Not really... they're just back up to where they were before the sharp drop he had right after the verdict.



Still trending upwards, though. We'll see if this upcoming debate moves the needle any more in one direction or the other.
link to original post



I hope it does because I will be betting on Biden at any plus odds.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
terapined
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June 20th, 2024 at 12:30:55 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

Since Trump became a convicted felon 3 weeks ago his odds of becoming president have gone up drastically.
link to original post



Not really... they're just back up to where they were before the sharp drop he had right after the verdict.



Still trending upwards, though. We'll see if this upcoming debate moves the needle any more in one direction or the other.
link to original post



I hope it does because I will be betting on Biden at any plus odds.
link to original post


Even Foxnews has Biden ahead in their polling
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
terapined
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June 20th, 2024 at 12:33:40 PM permalink
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
OnceDear
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June 20th, 2024 at 3:44:41 PM permalink
Quote: terapined


link to original post


But that's just the popular vote which means nothing....
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
EvenBob
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June 20th, 2024 at 5:02:56 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: terapined


link to original post


But that's just the popular vote which means nothing....
link to original post



It means less than nothing, actually. In a presidential election it counts for zero as they found out in 2016. And other elections before that. Better to look at the Battleground state polls, they tell an entirely totally different story. After every election the losing side always screams how they're going to get rid of the Electoral College and yet here we are.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ams288
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June 20th, 2024 at 5:09:59 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: terapined


link to original post


But that's just the popular vote which means nothing....
link to original post



I think the point is that polls are clearly trending in Biden’s direction since the guilty verdict, despite EB’s anecdotes.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Gialmere
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June 20th, 2024 at 7:10:29 PM permalink
Right now there's two wild cards in play: the first debate and the sentencing hearing.

With rumors still swirling about replacement, I have to figure the pressure is on Biden for the debate. My guess is he'll do okay, not good, but okay is good enough.

For the sentencing hearing the judge has four options: fines, probation, house arrest, prison. My guess is fines and probation, and Trump will appeal no matter the outcome. But what do I know? I thought hung jury would be the most likely trial result.

How will all this affect voters? Who knows? My guess is not at all. After four years of each of these guys, if you haven't made up your mind by now, well, where ya been Jack?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
ams288
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June 21st, 2024 at 5:50:57 AM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Right now there's two wild cards in play: the first debate and the sentencing hearing.

With rumors still swirling about replacement, I have to figure the pressure is on Biden for the debate. My guess is he'll do okay, not good, but okay is good enough.

For the sentencing hearing the judge has four options: fines, probation, house arrest, prison. My guess is fines and probation, and Trump will appeal no matter the outcome. But what do I know? I thought hung jury would be the most likely trial result.

How will all this affect voters? Who knows? My guess is not at all. After four years of each of these guys, if you haven't made up your mind by now, well, where ya been Jack?
link to original post



I think there is enough evidence from the past decade to show that debates don’t matter at all.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
gordonm888
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June 21st, 2024 at 9:27:38 AM permalink
These odds, on 6/21, are posted by OddsChecker.com. Interesting chewing gum.
- Something seems to be amiss with the Democratic VP Odds, they don't look like they approach 100%.
- Remember that VP nominees are selected on the floor of the convention by votes of the state delegations; they are not bound by the rules to the preference of the Presidential nominee
- I find the last list of odds -for Republican VP Nominee -the most interesting.

US Presidential Election Winner
Donald Trump -122
Joe Biden +200
Michelle Obama +2900
Gavin Newsom +3500
Kamala Harris +6900
Robert Kennedy Jr. +8400
Nikki Haley +19900
Gretchen Whitmer +20900

Democratic Presidential Nominee
Joe Biden -303
Gavin Newsom +1400
Michelle Obama +1750
Kamala Harris +3500
Gretchen Whitmer +8000
Robert Kennedy Jr. +8000
Hillary Clinton +10000
Corey Booker +15000

Democratic VP Nominee Future
Gavin Newsom +1500
Gretchen Whitmer +1850
Michelle Obama +1900
Susan Rice +2400
Kamala Harris +2500
Cory Booker +3300
Amy Klobuchar +3700
Pete Buttigieg +5900
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +9900
Hillary Clinton +10000
Eric Garcetti +12900
Katie Porter +13900
Dwayne Johnson +14900
Elizabeth Warren +14900
Beto ORourke +15900
Nina Turner +17900
Tammy Duckworth +19900
John Ossoff +21900
Ayanna Pressley +34900
Michael Bloomberg +35900
Andrew Yang +39900
Jamaal Bowman +63900
Bernie Sanders +63900
Andrew Cuomo +72900
Rashida Tlaib +76900
Eric Adams +80900
Bill Gates +92900

Republican VP Nominee Future
Doug Burgum +400
JD Vance +650
Ben Carson +800
Tim Scott +1000
Marco Rubio +1200
Sarah Huckabee Sanders +1500
Byron Donalds +2000
Tulsi Gabbard +3100
Elise Stefanik +3300
Tudor Dixon +3300
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
TigerWu
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June 21st, 2024 at 12:04:43 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888


US Presidential Election Winner
Michelle Obama +2900
Kamala Harris +6900
link to original post



This is why I think these betting odds are in no way indictive of real-life odds. There is zero chance Michelle Obama has a better shot at being President over Kamala Harris.
gordonm888
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June 21st, 2024 at 3:13:37 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: gordonm888


US Presidential Election Winner
Michelle Obama +2900
Kamala Harris +6900
link to original post



This is why I think these betting odds are in no way indictive of real-life odds. There is zero chance Michelle Obama has a better shot at being President over Kamala Harris.
link to original post



First these are definitely not my opinions, they are from the oddschecker.com site. And I did immediately say that there seems to be something wrong with the Democratic VP Odds that are posted - obviously Kamala Harris should have the best odds of being the VP nominee Unless someone has some inside information that Biden and Democrat leadership are planning to dump her from the ticket. And I see little reason to assume that someone from this sports betting site has that kind of inside info.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
TigerWu
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June 25th, 2024 at 1:12:07 PM permalink
Some outlets are showing a slight reversal in betting odds for Trump and Biden over the last week. Maybe in anticipation for the upcoming debate?

Real Clear Politics averages:



Electionbettingodds.com:

DRich
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June 25th, 2024 at 2:11:26 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Some outlets are showing a slight reversal in betting odds for Trump and Biden over the last week. Maybe in anticipation for the upcoming debate?



I wonder what percentage of the actual voters will be swayed by a debate? My guess would be less than 1% but I really have no idea. In this election especially I really don't know any people that are on the fence.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
EvenBob
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June 27th, 2024 at 10:35:24 AM permalink
At BetOnline Trump is a -165 favorite to win the debate, compared to +125 for Biden.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ams288
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June 27th, 2024 at 10:46:38 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

At BetOnline Trump is a -165 favorite to win the debate, compared to +125 for Biden.
link to original post



How do they determine who “won” the debate?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
darkoz
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June 27th, 2024 at 11:09:11 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: EvenBob

At BetOnline Trump is a -165 favorite to win the debate, compared to +125 for Biden.
link to original post



How do they determine who “won” the debate?
link to original post



Similar to how EB determines he "won" roulette
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miplet
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June 27th, 2024 at 11:11:20 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: EvenBob

At BetOnline Trump is a -165 favorite to win the debate, compared to +125 for Biden.
link to original post



How do they determine who “won” the debate?
link to original post



It’s -145 and +105 now
Quote:

Who will win the CNN debate scheduled for 06/27/24? Result determined by any poll co-sanctioned with CNN. If no such poll, any from Yougov, Ipsos or aggregate of those two if necessary. If none of those three, bets void.

“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
DRich
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June 27th, 2024 at 11:57:07 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: EvenBob

At BetOnline Trump is a -165 favorite to win the debate, compared to +125 for Biden.
link to original post



How do they determine who “won” the debate?
link to original post



Clearly the winner is BetOnline with their 40 cent spread
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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June 27th, 2024 at 8:13:35 PM permalink
After the debate….. Predictit…..

Trump is at 60 cents
Biden at 33 cents.


WOW.
cyberbabble
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June 27th, 2024 at 8:31:44 PM permalink
Newsom was at 4 cents for months. Now he is 17 cents and Biden is at 29 cents.

Dem insiders picking Biden's replacement?
unJon
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June 28th, 2024 at 4:43:09 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

I think there is enough evidence from the past decade to show that debates don’t matter at all.
link to original post



Posts that haven’t aged well.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TigerWu
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June 28th, 2024 at 2:43:40 PM permalink
For the purposes of betting, it looks like Trump "won" the debate.

It was already mentioned a few posts ago that Gavin Newsom might be picking up steam. I also read an article that Gretchen Whitmer may be on the shortlist as a Biden replacement as well.

According to electionbettingodds.com, which claims to update their odds every minute, Biden's odds took a beating after the debate. Newsom's odds took a very noticeable uptick, and, oddly enough, so did RKFJr's. It's also interesting to note that Trump's odds didn't get that much better in comparison. Here's the website's chart from the last 24 hours:

Keyser
Keyser
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June 28th, 2024 at 8:18:04 PM permalink
Like most people, I'm wondering who's actually running the country at this point. 25th amendment time?

Afterwards there really needs to be investigations into what's taken place and the coverup.

I suspect we will see Pete Buttigieg or Hillary replace him on the ticket.
mcallister3200
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June 28th, 2024 at 8:52:35 PM permalink
Maybe we just go back to a monarchy. Seems only way to get a senator, president, or judge out of office anymore is for them to expire.
EvenBob
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June 28th, 2024 at 10:08:17 PM permalink
This is from after the debate. The day before the debate Trump was at 51 and Joe Biden was 35. Today after the debate Trump went up 3 points and Biden went down 14 points. I want to see what the odds are of Biden being replaced. I'm willing to bet he will not be replaced because he doesn't want it and more importantly his wife really doesn't want it. And according to insiders she's the boss.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AZDuffman
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June 29th, 2024 at 2:38:48 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Like most people, I'm wondering who's actually running the country at this point. 25th amendment time?

Afterwards there really needs to be investigations into what's taken place and the coverup.

I suspect we will see Pete Buttigieg or Hillary replace him on the ticket.
link to original post



This has happened before at least once, Woodrow Wilson was totally out of it at the end of his term they say. I do not see an investigation unless something big and causes damage happens. Replacing him gets trickier by the day, and there is no real bench to go to. That might more happen by changing the running mate with a wink that he will resign shortly after election, but who knows.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
darkoz
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June 29th, 2024 at 2:48:48 AM permalink
All of the posts from Keysers down are political posts

Might as well suspend the thread again
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
rxwine
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June 29th, 2024 at 7:50:25 AM permalink
Pretty sure the post-debate effect is going to need a week to be able to sort where things are going. Or maybe by Tuesday.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
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