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98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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September 22nd, 2010 at 5:21:24 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Actually, my challenge rules say that sitting out is perfectly acceptable. And I'm happy to draw random numbers until up to 100 seven-outs between sessions. System purveyors often decide to sit out when a table is running "cold", so I think in fairness I have to simulate that. I was worried that this could lead to a 100 billion-round trial which would take forever to run, but I just did a quick test and even in my (relatively slow) language of choice it would be done in four hours.

But again, if 98steps can get WinCraps to simulate what he wants, or takes Triplell up on his offer to code a sim for free, then all this is moot.



Michael- If I am reading your last post correctly, you are offering to accept 100 7-outs per system session. Thank you for that concession.

I have managed to program my system into WinCraps (Thank you to everyone who advised me on how to do that) and am currently running a full system check. My enthusiasm and confidence is not diminished.

Once all the details are worked out, contract agreed to and money in escrow.....I provide you with the system and you program it......will I be able to review the program to confirm accuracy before the actual official test?
98steps
98steps
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September 22nd, 2010 at 5:23:22 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Actually, my challenge rules say that sitting out is perfectly acceptable. And I'm happy to draw random numbers until up to 100 seven-outs between sessions. System purveyors often decide to sit out when a table is running "cold", so I think in fairness I have to simulate that. I was worried that this could lead to a 100 billion-round trial which would take forever to run, but I just did a quick test and even in my (relatively slow) language of choice it would be done in four hours.

But again, if 98steps can get WinCraps to simulate what he wants, or takes Triplell up on his offer to code a sim for free, then all this is moot.



Michael- If I am reading your last post correctly, you are offering to accept 100 7-outs per system session.



Sorry for the mis-wording here......100 7-outs between each system session.
goatcabin
goatcabin
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September 22nd, 2010 at 5:53:15 PM permalink
Quote: guido111


Someone in their lifetime could show a net profit from gambling. But not for a few million trials.

Example:

years played: 60 (from age 21 to age 81)
goes to Las Vegas 1 time every year and plays the pass line only at Craps. No odds, just $5 pass bets and free cocktail service.
each trip 24 hours of play, any way they so choose. 3-8 hour days, 4-6 hour days, etc.
1 million craps players. for 10 million craps players, multiply the below results by 10.
Question: How many will show a profit after 60 years? Remember the long run is infinity, so we are not at the long run.
1440 lifetime hours (60x24)
43200 pass line bets total (30 per hour x 1440 hours)

total wagers
$216,000.00
-$3,054.55
Expected Loss

Answers:
1,670 break even or show a profit (0.166994%)
1,619 show a profit of $10 or more
Profit or more/players
$100/1,219.5
$200/882.9
$500/318.1
$1000/48.7
1880/1.0

can it get better with time, like a few million more pass line bets. We all know the answer.
close to 1 out of 16,458,428,050,395,670,235...maybe if you are lucky!



However, if these players took odds, the chances of coming out ahead are greatly increased. I recommend reading two articles in my blog, the first of which ("Two Million Players") presents a similar example to the above, then the one entitled "Free Variance".

In the above example, with 3, 4, 5X odds the ev would be the same, but the standard deviation ($1039 without odds) would be $5108, requiring well under a single standard deviation of "good luck" to break even or show a profit. More than a quarter of the players would be expected to "have their heads above water"; of course, too bad for the unlucky ones!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 22nd, 2010 at 6:02:58 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

...will I be able to review the program to confirm accuracy before the actual official test?



As the challenge rules plainly state, I'll provide you with the source code. It doesn't matter whether I provide it before or after the test, because your recourse is listed if you think the code is in error. (And I just clarified that section to make it even plainer.) Please don't ask me about stuff that's in the rules.

I tried to discourage you from accepting, but if you're determined to do so, that's your choice. If and when you want to proceed, let me know and we'll proceed to agreeing on the contract. I suggest I post it here to get input from the community as to the wording before we both agree to it. I like transparency.
guido111
guido111
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September 22nd, 2010 at 6:29:53 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

However, if these players took odds, the chances of coming out ahead are greatly increased. I recommend reading two articles in my blog, the first of which ("Two Million Players") presents a similar example to the above, then the one entitled "Free Variance".

In the above example, with 3, 4, 5X odds the ev would be the same, but the standard deviation ($1039 without odds) would be $5108, requiring well under a single standard deviation of "good luck" to break even or show a profit. More than a quarter of the players would be expected to "have their heads above water"; of course, too bad for the unlucky ones!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA


Nice work Alan. Nice blogs.

Yes, but my point was to show the small amount of people that showed a profit after 43,200 trials. a very small amount as you well know.
after a few million, few hundred million more trials.
I think you know how many would still show a profit.
In a 60 year gambling lifetime, I think it is rare to "see" well over a million trials or more, it would be the exception.
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
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September 23rd, 2010 at 1:57:20 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

If a system is proven to be a consistant winner, is there anyone out there that would consider financing its operation?


taking us back to your original post question, I would only consider financing a "system" if it proves to be a consistent winner.
I think we all have different ideas as to the meaning of "a consistent winner"

that brings us to Mr Bluejay and his challenge.
How close are you to accepting Mr Bluejay's challenge with rules you both agree to?

It would be sad to see this thread change into another topic.
nope27
nope27
Joined: Sep 5, 2010
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September 23rd, 2010 at 6:12:02 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

I have developed a craps strategy that utilizes a combination of 0% wagers and systematic betting progressions. Thru fairly extensive testing it is trending at 95% effectiveness, winning between 500-800 (average win 700) on 19 out of 20 sessions, losing +/-4500 on the one session. I have tested my theories at home as well as on live tables.


OK. short term success. better than short term failure.
Quote: 98steps

If a system is proven to be a consistant winner, is there anyone out there that would consider financing its operation?


YES, me. read on.

I say, IF and when you prove your system IS a "consistent winner", and that means for me my bankroll keeps growing without ruin, are you still willing to risk $1000 to Mr Bluejay?

I would also offer to run a simulation for free, then if it passes my bankroll test, I would be willing to put up $3000 for your challenge. Mr Bluejay would like that better, I am sure of it.

But, I know I would fail the challenge. Mr Bluejay knows what he is talking about is true. He writes about many subjects and gambling is one that he knows very well.

My last statement:
Is the challenge a "go"
or a "no"

Good Luck!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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September 24th, 2010 at 9:23:29 AM permalink
I just busted about 20 posts that had nothing to do with the Michael Bluejay challenge. If you wish to continue to discuss the etiquette of hijacking threads, or the craps rules at the Mohegan Sun, please make a new thread about it. In the near future, webmaster JB will make it easier to do so. Meanwhile, just go to the main forum page, choose the most appropriate category, and then click "new thread."
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
98steps
98steps
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September 24th, 2010 at 2:59:34 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

As the challenge rules plainly state, I'll provide you with the source code. It doesn't matter whether I provide it before or after the test, because your recourse is listed if you think the code is in error. (And I just clarified that section to make it even plainer.) Please don't ask me about stuff that's in the rules.

I tried to discourage you from accepting, but if you're determined to do so, that's your choice. If and when you want to proceed, let me know and we'll proceed to agreeing on the contract. I suggest I post it here to get input from the community as to the wording before we both agree to it. I like transparency.



I am in total agreement with posting and agreeing to the contract terms here on the community board.
98steps
98steps
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September 24th, 2010 at 3:03:59 PM permalink
Quote: nope27

taking us back to your original post question, I would only consider financing a "system" if it proves to be a consistent winner.
I think we all have different ideas as to the meaning of "a consistent winner"

that brings us to Mr Bluejay and his challenge.
How close are you to accepting Mr Bluejay's challenge with rules you both agree to?

It would be sad to see this thread change into another topic.



Nope27- I appreciate your open-mindedness. I am extremely close to final acceptance of Mr. Bluejay's challenge. I beleive most of the talking points have been discussed and informally agreed to in this forum.

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