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Triplell
Triplell
Joined: Aug 13, 2010
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September 20th, 2010 at 8:20:43 PM permalink
Horseshoe in Council Bluffs (HEC) pays 100x odds and only takes vig on all winning bets (lays and buys). So if you think your system works, I suggest moving there and just living life making all that money from the Casino./sarcasm

I'll write you a program for free if you like. I'll program in all true odds (mod 36 + 1 on a RNG). I'll give you freedom for all bets. Sorry, but I only know how to do text based programming, so it will be a primitive GUI. In order to produce reliable results, you would have to give me the strict rules of your system, which I'm sure you aren't comfortable doing.

The last 20x I went to the casino, I played a style I like to play with playing the don'ts and placing the 6/8. I made over $400 from all the trips, however I wouldn't consider it successful, as one time I got extremely lucky (going way against odds) and winning over $900, and another three times I lost around $200 ea (my bankroll limit).
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 21st, 2010 at 9:47:20 AM permalink
I would define a "round" as any roll where at least one bet is resolved.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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September 21st, 2010 at 12:03:02 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

... even 333 million traditional craps rounds ought to be plenty. What does the community think about how we should measure a round for the 1 billion round requirement?



Thanks for opening this conversation to the community Michael. I find it very interesting.


333M wagers could be more action than Vegas has seen in its entire craps history. I think that the resolution of each individual wager should count as "1".

I am not sure how to count the "sitting out" request in the event of a stop-loss hit. Would the wait be for the next 100 "7-outs", or "tosses", since each toss "potentially" resolves a wager?

I also note that casinos typically have max lay and odds limits posted, but these vary. I assume that this limit would be written into the test.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 21st, 2010 at 12:29:31 PM permalink
I'll take the Wizard's advice on how to count a round. I'd be a fool not to listen to him.

Vegas has seen way more than 333M craps wagers. There are 75 casinos in Vegas. If they average 2 tables per casino, 4 players per table, 150 rolls per hour, 1 bet resolved per roll, 16 hours a day, that's 75 x 2 x 4 x 150 x 1 x 16 = 1.4M rounds in a day. So 333M rounds takes less than a year. And I'm being conservative in my estimate. There are probably more tables and players in reality.

The system can sit out for up to 100 resolved come-out rolls.

As the rules state, I allow a bet spread of 1 to 500, so that's the limit.

Of course, another member offered to test Christiaan's system for free, so all this might all be moot. Taking the free offer should be a no-brainer.
98steps
98steps
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September 21st, 2010 at 1:40:02 PM permalink
The Wizard's suggestion of round definition is perfectly acceptable to me.

I would ask that the sit out period between system sessions be 100 7-outs. Would that be acceptable to everyone?
98steps
98steps
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September 21st, 2010 at 1:44:46 PM permalink
I have no reason to question the honesty or integrity of anyone involved in this discussion. If the Wizard is willing to hold the wager in escrow and serve as judge, I am happy to accept him.
98steps
98steps
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September 21st, 2010 at 1:58:45 PM permalink
Triplell - Thank you for your offer to write a testing program for me. I am currently working with WinCraps (thanks also to the members that pointed me to that program), programming in my system in order to test for any flaws. My preliminary computer simulations are very encouraging. Is this program the equivalent of what you could devise?
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 21st, 2010 at 2:31:09 PM permalink
I can't speak for Bluejay, but I think he will say that one "session" will have to start immediately after the last one. In other words, he is not going to draw random numbers if there is no money bet. That would violate the 1-500 unit bet spread rule. Again, I can't speak for him, but predict he will say that.

What I recommend you (98steps) do is wait for the results of the WinCraps and/or Triplell simulations before further negotiations on the fine points of the rules. If they were done correctly, it will show this system not only didn't beat the house edge, but didn't even dent it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Triplell
Triplell
Joined: Aug 13, 2010
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September 21st, 2010 at 3:08:50 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Triplell - Thank you for your offer to write a testing program for me. I am currently working with WinCraps (thanks also to the members that pointed me to that program), programming in my system in order to test for any flaws. My preliminary computer simulations are very encouraging. Is this program the equivalent of what you could devise?



Win craps is much more extensive and looks like it would have the ability for you to program the system without anyone else knowing your system.

Good luck, you'll need it.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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September 21st, 2010 at 3:08:55 PM permalink
Wait - this discussion is still going on? Is there actually some question as to whether the d'Alembert betting system can alter the EV of its component wagers?

And you're doing this with a PRNG rather than dice? Well, be very careful that you implement the RNG properly...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

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