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98steps
98steps
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September 15th, 2010 at 6:18:15 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Is there some other forum where I can direct people to go to discuss betting systems? I'm getting sick of it turning this forum into a cesspool.

About the Michael Bluejay challenge, I wouldn't hope for him accepting it, or even responding. He is very busy with other things and knows that such challenges almost never get off the ground. I think he expressed to me the intention to take down his challenge.

Bluejay and I both know that after many hours of negotiating terms, when it comes time to put up the money the challenger almost always backs down. When I did my challenge about 100 people wasted my time in this manner, and just one person went through with it.



Wizard- It is in no way my intention to turn your forum into a cesspool. If that is indeed your perception, I do apologize and will go elsewhere, all you need do is ask me.

In regards to Bluejay's challenge, I am indeed serious. I have read and re-read his rules and stipulations, and have no complaint over any of them. My only concerns would be that his programming allows me the same advantages over the game that I enjoy in Vegas.....Vig on Buy and Lay bets taken after wins and the ability to let my system dictate when any session ends. If he is not willing to even entertain serious challengers, is he justified in claiming that no one has ever taken up his offer?
98steps
98steps
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September 15th, 2010 at 6:22:53 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

WinCraps is shareware. Download it from Cloud City Software. It's highly worth paying the $19.95 license for - much cheaper than hiring someone to write a custom simulator.



MathExtremist- Thank you for your genuine input. I am NOT a computer programmer. I will be checking out this software today.
98steps
98steps
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September 15th, 2010 at 6:29:52 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Quote: MathExtremist

WinCraps is shareware. Download it from Cloud City Software. It's highly worth paying the $19.95 license for - much cheaper than hiring someone to write a custom simulator.



In order for one to run large "hyper-drive" simulations in Wincraps, you do need to pay the $19.95 for the license.
IF you do not know programming, this software is well worth the $20. One programs using English words and phrases, and that has its advantages. The software is only for Windows.

The site has many auto-bet files already made, and you can download them for free. Then find a bet file close to yours, adjust the bets and progressions and you have your system and its simulation results. It is worth the effort.
Test, not guess.



7craps- thank you also for your serious input. I absolutely agree that it is worth the effort to Test. I have spent hundreds of hours testing my theories with dice, chips, pen and paper. If the software that you and Math Extremist have suggested is able to accomodate my progressions and stop-loss methods, then I will be purchasing it....regardless of weather Bluejay is willing to accept my challenge or not.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 15th, 2010 at 6:36:12 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

This subforum is called "Betting Systems". If you don't want that sort of discussion here, it's your site -- take down the subforum. Nobody will mind.



Fair point. The reason I did that is I wanted to corral the betting system faithful into their own little sty. However, it is discouraging to see so much of the forum activity about that topic.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 15th, 2010 at 6:43:40 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Wizard- It is in no way my intention to turn your forum into a cesspool. If that is indeed your perception, I do apologize and will go elsewhere, all you need do is ask me.

In regards to Bluejay's challenge, I am indeed serious. I have read and re-read his rules and stipulations, and have no complaint over any of them. My only concerns would be that his programming allows me the same advantages over the game that I enjoy in Vegas.....Vig on Buy and Lay bets taken after wins and the ability to let my system dictate when any session ends. If he is not willing to even entertain serious challengers, is he justified in claiming that no one has ever taken up his offer?



I appreciate the offer to leave if asked. At this point I'm not asking yet, because once I start down that road, I'll get caught up in requests to ban people for various reasons all the time.

I can't speak for Bluejay, but I'm sure using standard Vegas rules would not be the reason he refused the challenge.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 15th, 2010 at 7:50:00 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

7craps- thank you also for your serious input. I absolutely agree that it is worth the effort to Test. I have spent hundreds of hours testing my theories with dice, chips, pen and paper. If the software that you and Math Extremist have suggested is able to accomodate my progressions and stop-loss methods, then I will be purchasing it....regardless of weather Bluejay is willing to accept my challenge or not.



No, you misunderstand. I don't think your betting system is worth the effort to test, and I doubt 7craps thinks so either. Your craps betting system is a combination of individual wagers, none of which have a player advantage. (This is unlike card counting, which works precisely by betting more when there is a player advantage). The title of this thread is "investment opportunity". Each bet you make is a negative ROI investment. A $5 pass line bet has an average ROI of -$0.07, and every other bet on the table is worse (e.g. greater negative ROI). That's your prospectus. No serious investor would invest in that.

It reminds me of the old joke - the accountant was telling his boss that each product they sold resulted in a net loss. The boss replies, "sure we take a loss on every sale, but we make up for it in volume."
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 15th, 2010 at 7:57:13 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Fair point. The reason I did that is I wanted to corral the betting system faithful into their own little sty. However, it is discouraging to see so much of the forum activity about that topic.



I'd wager, no pun intended, that the faith of those who believe in betting systems is in some respects stronger than the faith of those who believe in their chosen deity. At least you can observe a betting system "working". And if you can't dissuade someone from believing in their deity, well, good luck trying to push someone off their faith in their system -- which *they* created, and therefore view less critically than they would otherwise.

I worked with a guy once who was formerly a hardware manager at Aristocrat, or maybe CDS. That didn't stop him from believing that he could spot patterns in roulette and profit from them. It takes a meaningful amount of training to condition one's perception *not* to intuitively believe in patterns or systems because we're hard-wired in precisely the opposite way. Human cognition is terrible at comprehending randomness.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
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September 15th, 2010 at 8:52:03 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I'd wager, no pun intended, that the faith of those who believe in betting systems is in some respects stronger than the faith of those who believe in their chosen deity.



I think the levels of faith in betting systems and a deity are about equally strong, because both are about equally absurd. As I've said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.

I've know quite a few strong believers, and they saw evidence for their deity in everything. Say they prayed that the ball would land in red. If it did, praise god, he answered my prayer! If it didn't, then god works in mysterious ways, and he is building my character or punishing me for something.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Nareed
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September 15th, 2010 at 9:07:00 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've know quite a few strong believers, and they saw evidence for their deity in everything. Say they prayed that the ball would land in red. If it did, praise god, he answered my prayer! If it didn't, then god works in mysterious ways, and he is building my character or punishing me for something.



I can understand that. The premise, God, is irrational, but the subsequent reasoning is not. I mean, God is described as unkowable, so anything he does is beyond human comprehension. therefore anyhing at all, good or bad, can be an act of God.

But a betting system is far more limited. If it succeeds 11 times out of 10, that's just chance, but it can be seen as evidence that it works. However, if it works 20% of the time and fails 80%, it would take a lot of willful blindness to keep believeing it works.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
98steps
98steps
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September 15th, 2010 at 9:57:32 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

No, you misunderstand. I don't think your betting system is worth the effort to test, and I doubt 7craps thinks so either. Your craps betting system is a combination of individual wagers, none of which have a player advantage. (This is unlike card counting, which works precisely by betting more when there is a player advantage). The title of this thread is "investment opportunity". Each bet you make is a negative ROI investment. A $5 pass line bet has an average ROI of -$0.07, and every other bet on the table is worse (e.g. greater negative ROI). That's your prospectus. No serious investor would invest in that.

It reminds me of the old joke - the accountant was telling his boss that each product they sold resulted in a net loss. The boss replies, "sure we take a loss on every sale, but we make up for it in volume."



Perhaps I am mistaken, but the pass line bet is the only wager I utilize which has an inherent house edge. The 1.41% of the passline I consider to be a cost of doing business, overhead if you will. THe other wagers I incorporate are naturally 0% propositions, akin to a simple coin toss.

The odds wagers that the pass line allows me to take advantage of are truly 0% wagers. The Buy on 4/10 when used in tandem become another 50/50 proposition, with 6 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. The vig, if payed on winning wagers only, becomes another cost of doing business.

Is my math or my logic incorrect?

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