Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity?
September 26th, 2010 at 4:12:19 PM
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Quote: WizardFortunately, we have an English teacher in our midst. From the "cheating boyfriends" thread:
I wonder if he will translate it from gibberish to English.
Sure, I do that about 200 times a week anyway :)
But where is it?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
September 26th, 2010 at 4:14:12 PM
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Quote: mkl654321Sure, I do that about 200 times a week anyway :)
But where is it?
Wonderful! I would suggest that 98steps PM it to you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 26th, 2010 at 5:06:05 PM
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Quote: 98stepsAs it is now a requirement that my System submission be proof-read and corrected, I am asking that those in the community that would be willing to help me please let me know.
I don't think that's a new requirement. In order for you to comply with any challenge that involves programming the steps of a system into a computer, your system must be described as a proper algorithm. It must be perfectly clear at each possible step what the computer simulation is to do next. There can be no guessing or making things up. If your system cannot be described in a computationally-complete way, it is not suitable (and indeed, not possible) to test.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
September 26th, 2010 at 5:13:32 PM
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Quote: MathExtremist[Y]our system must be described as a proper algorithm... If your system cannot be described in a computationally-complete way, it is not suitable (and indeed, not possible) to test.
Let me be clear, these are MathExtremist's words, not mine. I'm not asking for an explanation that reads like a computer program or that includes any special jargon. Plain English is fine. I just need to know what bets to make, when to make them, and how much to bet.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 26th, 2010 at 6:53:59 PM
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Quote: 98stepsMichael, I apologize if my e-mail came thru to you as "gibberish". Perhaps the formatting did not transfer with the data when I cut and pasted it per your request. I do not believe I ever asked for, or implied that I needed, help with it. I acknowledge that we are in negotiation of my attempts to accept your challenge.
I will re-write the directions for operating my system and try to make the directions more understandable to you.
98steps
IF you tried to send a WinCraps auto bet file to Mr Bluejay, it will not work unless the other party has Wincraps.
You need to copy the bet file IN Wincraps first to a text file.
In other words, you must use the software to make a text file so you can send it to someone using email.
If that is the case, contact me using PM, and I will give you my email so you can send the auto-bet file to me, I will make a text file from it and send it back to you.
If you do not need my help:
good luck to you
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 26th, 2010 at 7:01:31 PM
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Quote: WizardAny attorneys on the forum? If not, I am available. Again, I can't speak for either party; I'm just trying to moderate and expedite things.
Maybe...
September 26th, 2010 at 7:09:01 PM
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He didn't send a WinCraps auto bet file to me. (I don't have WinCraps, but what he sent certainly wasn't anything that a computer would understand.) It's his explanation of his system, full of incomplete sentences, his own special terminology (e.g., "scheduled odds", whatever that means), and exceptionally unclear sentences. It's 101 lines long.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 26th, 2010 at 9:20:31 PM
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The document I submitted did indeed contain many incomplete sentences. It was written in Outline Format. I apologize again for providing you with information that you could not easily digest. I make no apologies for the length of the document, as what I provided is not a simplistic angle. It is a complete method/system of play and the outline was written to accomodate every possible outcome.
September 26th, 2010 at 9:43:36 PM
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I am currently rewriting the System Instructions in order to make it more intelligible. I have also extended invitations to several community members in order to solicit second opinions on its clarity.
September 26th, 2010 at 10:08:06 PM
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No, it was absolutely NOT in outline format. There was ZERO hierarchical structure in what you sent. There was no I., A., 1., etc. There were no indentations. It was just a load of text. I got the highest possible score on the SAT Test of Standard Written English, and I know what outline format is.
But in any event, it wouldn't matter even if the text *had* been in outline format, because it would still have been completely unintelligible. Instructions call for complete sentences.
It's funny, because 98 writes very well here on the forum, but the system reads like it was written by somebody else.
But in any event, it wouldn't matter even if the text *had* been in outline format, because it would still have been completely unintelligible. Instructions call for complete sentences.
It's funny, because 98 writes very well here on the forum, but the system reads like it was written by somebody else.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 26th, 2010 at 11:57:09 PM
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I take back what I said about this being the easiest money you will ever make. With the amount of nonsense that this guy is putting you through it could well be the hardest money you (might?) will ever make. lol
September 27th, 2010 at 12:23:24 AM
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Yeah, actually, in his first email to me, he said something like, "According to your rules, what's an 'event'?" I said, "The word 'event' doesn't appear anywhere in my rules. You're using that term, not me."
He replies and says, "I'm sorry I misquoted you. I meant, what constitutes a 'turn'?"
Of course, the word "turn" doesn't appear anywhere in the rules, either.
I would love to post the system rules here so I can get some validation on how non-understandable they are (and not from "lack of formatting" or "because it's in outline format"), but 98 is trusting me to keep his system secret, and I take my responsibilities seriously.
Of course, in reality, posting it really wouldn't betray any secrets because no one could understand the system from the description anyway. And even if they could, the secret has no value, because it's just another losing betting system.
Anyway, I won't be upset if he decides to withdraw. He seems like a nice guy, and I'd hate to see him lose $1000. But you know, all of my attempts to discourage him might be making him think that I'm worried about losing my $10k (or $30k), and maybe that's making him even eager to accept. Also, maybe he thinks my abrasiveness and complaints are attempts to get him to take his business elsewhere, and that's encouraging him even more.
98, let's reset, no hard feelings. You've been exceptionally polite, and you've always apologized for various things, but let me be clear that a lack of politeness or apology wouldn't be a problem for me, so don't worry that that could kill the deal, because it won't. All I need is a proper challenge brought according to my clear, concise, and generous rules. Once you've done that, we're in business.
He replies and says, "I'm sorry I misquoted you. I meant, what constitutes a 'turn'?"
Of course, the word "turn" doesn't appear anywhere in the rules, either.
I would love to post the system rules here so I can get some validation on how non-understandable they are (and not from "lack of formatting" or "because it's in outline format"), but 98 is trusting me to keep his system secret, and I take my responsibilities seriously.
Of course, in reality, posting it really wouldn't betray any secrets because no one could understand the system from the description anyway. And even if they could, the secret has no value, because it's just another losing betting system.
Anyway, I won't be upset if he decides to withdraw. He seems like a nice guy, and I'd hate to see him lose $1000. But you know, all of my attempts to discourage him might be making him think that I'm worried about losing my $10k (or $30k), and maybe that's making him even eager to accept. Also, maybe he thinks my abrasiveness and complaints are attempts to get him to take his business elsewhere, and that's encouraging him even more.
98, let's reset, no hard feelings. You've been exceptionally polite, and you've always apologized for various things, but let me be clear that a lack of politeness or apology wouldn't be a problem for me, so don't worry that that could kill the deal, because it won't. All I need is a proper challenge brought according to my clear, concise, and generous rules. Once you've done that, we're in business.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 27th, 2010 at 5:39:33 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitI get a kick out of how the Wizard responds to these things. It seems to be the one subject that not protected by the very liberal Wizard "free speech" policy.
Ever heard the invitation, "Were not doing anything tonight, come join our little neighborly get-together on the patio. Don't worry, you may talk about anything with these people." And how long did it last? Well, that's the thing... it's great to "give the scoop" on the other guy's stuff, but not when its the "wrong" other guy in a position to retaliate (with more than words, or senseless name-calling if you're lucky).
Quote: WizardI think the levels of faith in betting systems and a deity are about equally strong, because both are about equally absurd. As I've said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.
Until we know and understand everything, including which we can't... no one can completely rule out anything, not even my statement about this.
Anyway, doesn't also the above comment, itself, sound a bit like one of those "beliefs" of the strained sort based more on (relative) experience than theory and experiment? Like it's okay to conclude that gamblers are going to gamble anyway, but it's not okay for them to not appear as "angels" here?
And much as we may want to deny it, doesn't putting down one deity necessarily prop up another, even if ultimately a humanistic one?
Quote: MathExtremistThis subforum is called "Betting Systems". If you don't want that sort of discussion here, it's your site -- take down the subforum. Nobody will mind.
Certainly not the casinos, who 100% depend on their own public glorification and justification-for-being.
Quote: WizardIs there some other forum where I can direct people to go to discuss betting systems? I'm getting sick of it turning this forum into a cesspool.
About the Michael Bluejay challenge, I wouldn't hope for him accepting it, or even responding. He is very busy with other things and knows that such challenges almost never get off the ground.
Well, maybe it ought to be discussed until either of youze can improve upon one of those systems (, this ostensibly(?) being primarily a gambling message-board about a gambling town,) or every one else "gets the message", namely that losing money isn't fun or entertaining unless perhaps you're a masochist or casino, and it's the other guy's money, and that you or the other guy will almost certainly and quickly lose it.
Quote: MichaelBluejayAll I need is a proper challenge brought according to my clear, concise, and generous rules. Once you've done that, we're in business.
Hardly clear, as essentially you're inviting and entertaining counter-example emperical evidence to something which (you've gone on record stating) remains theoretically impossible. (Eg, someone asking for my banking information after claiming that my bank "refused to process" one of my cheques to her despite my own banking records indicating otherwise. If that person has concrete proof of that, why is she asking it of myself? Ought not she be mailing her claim of my bank's strange behavior behind my back, to which i would have no way of accessing, to me?)
Wouldn't it make sense here to base a real challenge on whose gambling system is better over the course of weeks of actual play... and let it all to the real gamblers?
Quote: mkl654321The reason I say that is that if you were inclined to accept the verdict of skilled and knowledgeable mathematicians, you wouldn't have concocted your system in the first place--you would already have known that it was a fool's errand to do so.
The optimal strategy, randomization, is only as good as one's strength to back it up. (Eg, bluffing in a poker game.)
Why bet at all, if you can be sure?
Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts?
(P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.)
September 27th, 2010 at 6:24:51 PM
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Update:
98steps has sent me his system in writing. Yes, at first it was hard to understand because he uses words and phrases that are not a part of normal craps language.
It took me a few times to read thru the system.
I am 100% certain I can set up the system perfectly in WinCraps.
I have to contact him just to verify a few items he did not make clear, in his own words that is.
After my programming of "the system" in WinCraps I will contact 98steps to see how he wants to proceed.
I may run my own simulation but will not show any results to anyone without 98steps approval.
Honestly, I personally do not think "the system" can pass 1 billion sessions and show a profit. I have a friend who thinks it can. So time will tell.
After programmed into WinCraps, a resulting text file will be easy for anyone to read and understand 98steps system.
Anyway...
I ended up in LA today where it hit 113 degrees! I'm still hot and not in a good way
yeouch!!!
Quote: MichaelBluejayYeah, actually, in his first email to me, he said something like, "According to your rules, what's an 'event'?" I said, "The word 'event' doesn't appear anywhere in my rules. You're using that term, not me."
He replies and says, "I'm sorry I misquoted you. I meant, what constitutes a 'turn'?"
Of course, the word "turn" doesn't appear anywhere in the rules, either.
98steps has sent me his system in writing. Yes, at first it was hard to understand because he uses words and phrases that are not a part of normal craps language.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
I would love to post the system rules here so I can get some validation on how non-understandable they are (and not from "lack of formatting" or "because it's in outline format"), but 98 is trusting me to keep his system secret, and I take my responsibilities seriously.
Of course, in reality, posting it really wouldn't betray any secrets because no one could understand the system from the description anyway. And even if they could, the secret has no value, because it's just another losing betting system.
It took me a few times to read thru the system.
I am 100% certain I can set up the system perfectly in WinCraps.
I have to contact him just to verify a few items he did not make clear, in his own words that is.
After my programming of "the system" in WinCraps I will contact 98steps to see how he wants to proceed.
I may run my own simulation but will not show any results to anyone without 98steps approval.
Honestly, I personally do not think "the system" can pass 1 billion sessions and show a profit. I have a friend who thinks it can. So time will tell.
After programmed into WinCraps, a resulting text file will be easy for anyone to read and understand 98steps system.
Anyway...
I ended up in LA today where it hit 113 degrees! I'm still hot and not in a good way
yeouch!!!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 28th, 2010 at 8:48:46 AM
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I would like to thank 7craps for extending me the courtesy of reading thru my "gibberish" with an open mind. I have no objections to his posting any results he comes up with thru his testing, once the system is programmed correctly.
From his posted remarks, I must acknowledge that my write-up was not as clear as I originally believed it to be. Not total "gibberish" either. Rather, somewhere inbetween and in need of clarification.
My use of terms that are not standard to craps player derives simply from the fact that I am not a lifelong Craps player. In fact, April 10th of this year I had never even played the game.
Michael- Will a text version of a WinCraps Autobet file be acceptable to you?
From his posted remarks, I must acknowledge that my write-up was not as clear as I originally believed it to be. Not total "gibberish" either. Rather, somewhere inbetween and in need of clarification.
My use of terms that are not standard to craps player derives simply from the fact that I am not a lifelong Craps player. In fact, April 10th of this year I had never even played the game.
Michael- Will a text version of a WinCraps Autobet file be acceptable to you?
September 28th, 2010 at 9:40:05 AM
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I am really enjoying this thread alot, and I am not sure why. Perhaps it's akin to watching a train rolling full steam ahead toward a bridge that is out... Can our hero switch the tracks in time?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
September 28th, 2010 at 11:25:04 AM
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98, your writeup was indeed gibberish. Your continued attempts to say otherwise are annoying, especially as that implies that the problem was my own failure to understand rather than to communicate in plain English. "Maybe the formatting was lost in the email." (Irrelevant when the doc isn't written in clear English.) "Oh, it was in outline format." (Not!) "I used non-craps terms because I'm unfamiliar with craps." That doesn't mean you just invent new terms out of thin air without explaining what the hell you mean by them.
How about this: if your system fails (either 7craps' simulation or mine), then I get to post the complete system you sent me here?
How about this: if your system fails (either 7craps' simulation or mine), then I get to post the complete system you sent me here?
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 28th, 2010 at 12:27:09 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejay98, your writeup was indeed gibberish. Your continued attempts to say otherwise are annoying, especially as that implies that the problem was my own failure to understand rather than to communicate in plain English. "Maybe the formatting was lost in the email." (Irrelevant when the doc isn't written in clear English.) "Oh, it was in outline format." (Not!) "I used non-craps terms because I'm unfamiliar with craps." That doesn't mean you just invent new terms out of thin air without explaining what the hell you mean by them.
How about this: if your system fails (either 7craps' simulation or mine), then I get to post the complete system you sent me here?
I have a growing and burning curiosity to see exactly what it was he sent you.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
September 29th, 2010 at 3:25:34 AM
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I concede that my original submission was clearly unacceptable.
WIll a text version of a completed WinCraps Auto-bet file be considered as acceptable?
WIll a text version of a completed WinCraps Auto-bet file be considered as acceptable?
September 29th, 2010 at 11:06:41 AM
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No idea, as I've never seen a WinCraps Auto-bet file. I'm willing to have a look, though. But why is writing it out in plain English so hard? You did get someone to review it for you.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 29th, 2010 at 1:54:58 PM
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Quote: mkl654321I have a growing and burning curiosity to see exactly what it was he sent you.
Me too. I hope if the system fails any of the simulations discussed that 98steps will lift the gag order. Consider it a request.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 29th, 2010 at 2:13:57 PM
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I thought he said it was the d'Alembert system. What's interesting about that?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
September 29th, 2010 at 3:31:31 PM
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Quote: MathExtremistI thought he said it was the d'Alembert system. What's interesting about that?
yes, I read the earlier post by 98steps.
Most system players at Craps get caught up in the belief, false one that is, that just because they win 5 sessions here and 10 sessions there, that they "know they are on to something".
sometimes it takes those BIG losing sessions to make them "see the light of day"
But if 98steps still thinks he can beat the challenge, win $10k to $30k,
lets get the ball rolling again. English is English, shorthand is shorthand,
98steps, just write out your system for the challenge as though you would explain it to your Grandma. Im sure then, Mr. MB could understand it and program away.
We are all waiting to see what happens.
September 29th, 2010 at 3:53:58 PM
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Quote: guido11198steps, just write out your system for the challenge as though you would explain it to your Grandma.
That's a good idea. I'm fluent in Grandma.
Wizard, if 98 signs a contract and you're the judge, then you'd *have* to be privy to the system in order to judge. But you're not the judge until we sign a contract.
You know, I'm thinking of changing the order of the Challenge Rules so that we execute a contract *before* the system is explained to me. The reason I specified seeing the system before we did the contract was just to try to make sure someone wasn't trying to game the system (i.e., trying to find a loophole to beat *me* rather than trying to prove that they really have a winning betting system playable in the casino.) But if my contract is good enough then it can weed out lame-o's like that. And also, if we sign the contract and then someone doesn't properly explain the system, then I can win because the challenger failed to explain it properly. (That would be in the contract.) The judge would determine whether the system were understandable, and the challenger would have the same recourse as for losing the challenge: having an arbiter decide the issue.
Anyway, you all quit telling 98 that his challenge is folly. Otherwise he might believe you and withdraw from the challenge and then I'm $1000 poorer!
On the other hand, I have to look worried in order to encourage 98 to proceed with the challenge. And you know, by golly, I'm so nervous right now because I'm about to lose $10,000. When I put up my challenge offer, what the hell was I thinking?
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 29th, 2010 at 4:06:12 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayThat's a good idea. I'm fluent in Grandma.
An update.
Great Grandma lines!
I am to a 50% level in programming 98steps system. All goes well I should be completed by the weekend and offer 98steps the chance to see results and to make any corrections.
After speaking with him over the phone yesterday, and I am sure he will post this also, he has done a rewrite (75%) on his system and has shown it to me.
What an improvement!
makes perfect sense in easy to read English, even to someones' Grandma, way better than his first attempt.
When I first read the system, my first comment out loud was "WTF". but after reading a few more times I understood it. So I pat myself on the back for that one!
I'm doing my best to build up the excitement.
98steps is very confident he can beat the challenge and I too want to see the attempt become a reality.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 29th, 2010 at 4:12:41 PM
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Quote: MathExtremistI thought he said it was the d'Alembert system. What's interesting about that?
I, being an ex-dice dealer, and have seen about every system or a variation of one, can say I have seen parts of 98 system before. But, Not exactly the way he plays.
He offers a few things that are different from what I have seen about the classic d'Alembert system, that being up 1 unit after a loss and down 1 unit after a win.
For those of you that know little about the D'Alembert system:
from wikipedia:"While he made great strides in mathematics and physics, d'Alembert is also famously known for incorrectly arguing in Croix ou Pile that the probability of a coin landing heads increased for every time that it came up tails. In gambling, the strategy of decreasing one's bet the more one wins and increasing one's bet the more one loses is therefore called the D'Alembert system, a type of martingale."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_le_Rond_d'Alembert
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 29th, 2010 at 4:23:35 PM
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my grandma played the don'ts
September 29th, 2010 at 4:31:43 PM
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Quote: WizardMe too. I hope if the system fails any of the simulations discussed that 98steps will lift the gag order. Consider it a request.
98steps, Did you read the Wizards post carefully?
Quote: WizardMe too. I hope "if" the system fails...
The Wizard used the word "if".
My question. Wizard did you mean to use the "if" word knowing your stance on betting systems?
NO reply needed.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 29th, 2010 at 4:52:39 PM
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Quote: 7craps
My question. Wizard did you mean to use the "if" word knowing your stance on betting systems?
Of course it will fail. There is no doubt about that. The reason I wrote "if" is I'm not convinced the thing will ever be put to any test. We need to find somebody who understands it, is capable of simulating it, and is willing to. A lot of progress has been made, but nobody has produced any results that I'm aware of yet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 29th, 2010 at 6:20:11 PM
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I would like to make a comment on this thread. I am fully aware that this system, along with any other system will not work. That being said, I am enjoying this thread and appreciate 98's mature approach and handling of this whole situation. Even through a few close to personal attacks he has remained civil. I respect that.
Just as I could win a lot of money if I said I would bet that a random coin flip would turn out heads 80 out of 100 times and by some chance it did, I hope 98's system some how has an incredible run of luck and pulls off the win. I know there is a slim to none chance it does and if it did I still would not risk my money on it a second time, but I'm pulling for him.
Just as I could win a lot of money if I said I would bet that a random coin flip would turn out heads 80 out of 100 times and by some chance it did, I hope 98's system some how has an incredible run of luck and pulls off the win. I know there is a slim to none chance it does and if it did I still would not risk my money on it a second time, but I'm pulling for him.
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
September 29th, 2010 at 8:59:28 PM
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Re-write, in plain Grandma English, is nearing completion. Should be ready for submission by Friday at the latest.
7craps- Thank you for your assistance in proofreading, code writing and "gibberish" de-gibberishing.
mkl654321 and/or MathExtremist- You two have been along for this ride since the beginning. Before submitting my final draft to Mr. Bluejay, I would welcome either of you to proof-read my instructions. 7craps has been kind enough to proof-read my emerging draft, but he has the benefit of having had me explain every detail. I recognize that you both give me zero chance of success, therefore, I would not ask for any analyzation of the systems chances of success, but rather for confirmation that it is indeed clear, understandable and programmable. The only concession I would ask before showing the instructions to you is that despite your estimation of it's value, you commit to keeping the details of my strategies completely confidential.
For anyone who is still wondering if the challenge will indeed happen, have faith that I am too damn stubborn to quit now.
7craps- Thank you for your assistance in proofreading, code writing and "gibberish" de-gibberishing.
mkl654321 and/or MathExtremist- You two have been along for this ride since the beginning. Before submitting my final draft to Mr. Bluejay, I would welcome either of you to proof-read my instructions. 7craps has been kind enough to proof-read my emerging draft, but he has the benefit of having had me explain every detail. I recognize that you both give me zero chance of success, therefore, I would not ask for any analyzation of the systems chances of success, but rather for confirmation that it is indeed clear, understandable and programmable. The only concession I would ask before showing the instructions to you is that despite your estimation of it's value, you commit to keeping the details of my strategies completely confidential.
For anyone who is still wondering if the challenge will indeed happen, have faith that I am too damn stubborn to quit now.
September 29th, 2010 at 9:09:56 PM
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Quote: 98stepsFor anyone who is still wondering if the challenge will indeed happen, have faith that I am too damn stubborn to quit now.
98, are you suggesting that you'll accept no matter what the results of the new WinCraps simulation? Careful...stubbornness is the downfall of many a gambler! If your system fails WinCraps then you'd be crazy to proceed with the challenge. I won't take your "too stubborn to quit now" line above as any kind of promise or commitment. If you want to back down later (before any contract is signed), that's fine with me. I know I've been a little curt with you, but I still don't have any burning desire to see you lose $1000. If you're worried about losing face by backing down, trust me, you'll lose more face by *accepting* the challenge -- especially after it loses. I think people will respect you more if you realize that no system can beat the casino. Really, what would people think of you if your system fails WinCraps and yet you blow $1000 on the challenge anyway?
That said, it's your money, and I'm no position to refuse a challenge brought properly. This is my last attempt to talk you out of it.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 29th, 2010 at 9:15:38 PM
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Quote: 98stepsRe-write, in plain Grandma English, is nearing completion. Should be ready for submission by Friday at the latest.
mkl654321 and/or MathExtremist- You two have been along for this ride since the beginning. Before submitting my final draft to Mr. Bluejay, I would welcome either of you to proof-read my instructions.
Feel free to send them to me via private message. I promise not to show the instructions to anyone else.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
September 30th, 2010 at 11:30:06 AM
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Quote: WizardHopefully it is fewer than 98 steps.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
It's his explanation of his system, full of incomplete sentences, his own special terminology (e.g., "scheduled odds", whatever that means), and exceptionally unclear sentences.
It's 101 lines long.
After reading a few of the past posts,
is The Wizard good.. or is he good!
September 30th, 2010 at 9:42:45 PM
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Looks as 98steps now has 3 members that have seen his system including myself.
I plan on keeping his system a secret also.
and if he proceeds to send it to 2 others after a complete re-write, that will make 5 before Mr. Bluejay sees it.
I am only interested in helping run simulations and the programming that goes with it.
What 98steps does with the information I or others give to him becomes his choice.
I give no further information other than the fact that 98steps has stated earlier that from actual casino play he has a 95% win rate per 20 sessions.
HI 98steps
I have been to Spain and back and soon to go back once again.
Good Luck!
I plan on keeping his system a secret also.
and if he proceeds to send it to 2 others after a complete re-write, that will make 5 before Mr. Bluejay sees it.
I am only interested in helping run simulations and the programming that goes with it.
What 98steps does with the information I or others give to him becomes his choice.
I give no further information other than the fact that 98steps has stated earlier that from actual casino play he has a 95% win rate per 20 sessions.
HI 98steps
I have been to Spain and back and soon to go back once again.
Good Luck!
September 30th, 2010 at 10:56:20 PM
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Yeah, but what kind of bankroll is required to enjoy that 95% win rate? If your bankroll isn't huge and you're often doubling your bets, you'll certainly bust out more frequently.
Long ago I figured that a straight Martingale had an 85% of winning after an hour with a 1-200 spread (e.g., $5 to $1000). But lengthier play starts dropping the win rate quickly. After eight hours it has only a 47% chance of winning, and it only gets worse the longer you use it.
Just now I simulated a massive 1 to 8192 spread, with the max bet being $40,960 (bet #14, after 13 losses). If that bet is lost, the player would have lost $81,915 on the series. I found that this huge bet spread would let the player play for only 30 hours and still enjoy a 95% win rate. Continued play beyond 30 hours drops the win rate precipitously.
Long ago I figured that a straight Martingale had an 85% of winning after an hour with a 1-200 spread (e.g., $5 to $1000). But lengthier play starts dropping the win rate quickly. After eight hours it has only a 47% chance of winning, and it only gets worse the longer you use it.
Just now I simulated a massive 1 to 8192 spread, with the max bet being $40,960 (bet #14, after 13 losses). If that bet is lost, the player would have lost $81,915 on the series. I found that this huge bet spread would let the player play for only 30 hours and still enjoy a 95% win rate. Continued play beyond 30 hours drops the win rate precipitously.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 30th, 2010 at 11:08:45 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayYeah, but what kind of bankroll is required to enjoy that 95% win rate? If your bankroll isn't huge and you're often doubling your bets, you'll certainly bust out more frequently.
I can not give out that information about the bankroll for 98steps, but I am sure he will make his system available to you very soon.
I also have just read his re-write and I must agree that the difference between the first version you saw and the "Grandma Friendly" version that you will shortly see is like the difference between night and day. But, I know you want to be the judge of that.
His progressions are not a martingale, they follow the D'Alembert system of increasing a bet after a loss, not a double, and decreasing after a win as previously posted.
added edit:
After a quick look at the "original" that I received, I see he does state the active bankroll. I do not know if you received one different than mine. But the bankroll is not very large, actually about what maximum table limits are at regular casinos.
update: I sent you a private message.
September 30th, 2010 at 11:19:08 PM
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Quote: nope27Looks as 98steps now has 3 members that have seen his system including myself.
I plan on keeping his system a secret also.
and if he proceeds to send it to 2 others after a complete re-write, that will make 5 before Mr. Bluejay sees it.
I am also certain that the others that will see the system will run their own simulations ,as I have have already done, and by doing so will be totally satisfied with their results.
September 30th, 2010 at 11:27:00 PM
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Sorry, I wasn't asking for you to reveal 98steps' bankroll requirements, it was more of a rhetorical question. What I was trying to say was, given a large enough bankroll and bet spread, lots of betting systems can show a 95% win rate after only an hour of play. That's no big deal. You can do that with the Martingale.
In my challenge I allow a spread of 1 to 500. (That's generous, as most tables in Vegas allow only 1 to 200.) Getting a 95% win rate after an hour of play under these conditions is just no big achievement. Getting a win after, say, 40 hours of play is much tougher.
In my challenge I allow a spread of 1 to 500. (That's generous, as most tables in Vegas allow only 1 to 200.) Getting a 95% win rate after an hour of play under these conditions is just no big achievement. Getting a win after, say, 40 hours of play is much tougher.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
September 30th, 2010 at 11:31:15 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejaySorry, I wasn't asking for you to reveal 98steps' bankroll requirements, it was more of a rhetorical question. What I was trying to say was, given a large enough bankroll and bet spread, lots of betting systems can show a 95% win rate after only an hour of play. That's no big deal. You can do that with the Martingale.
In my challenge I allow a spread of 1 to 500. (That's generous, as most tables in Vegas allow only 1 to 200.) Getting a 95% win rate after an hour of play under these conditions is just no big achievement. Getting a win after, say, 40 hours of play is much tougher.
I understand. I have to add that English is not my first language. I can write very well but at times I struggle with the written words and I take each meaning quite literally.
I did send you a private message, since without you there would be no challenge possible.
September 30th, 2010 at 11:37:56 PM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayIn my challenge I allow a spread of 1 to 500. (That's generous, as most tables in Vegas allow only 1 to 200.) Getting a 95% win rate after an hour of play under these conditions is just no big achievement. Getting a win after, say, 40 hours of play is much tougher.
Sure, and your challenge is what, 1B rolls? That's almost 300M pass bets, which will take over 11M hours at an actual table. The chances of a pass-line Martingale showing a profit after 11M hours is one of those inconceivably small probabilities, like the chances that a solar panel will fall off a passing spy satellite and land directly on the hood of your car in the next 5 seconds.
...
Nope, didn't happen. :)
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 1st, 2010 at 8:40:20 AM
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Quote: MathExtremistSure, and your challenge is what, 1B rolls?
The rules that have been agreed upon here in this thread state that the challenge will end at 1 billion RESOLVED WAGERS and there are more than one bet being made at most times.
I feel 98steps is very close to a completed, easy to read and understand system, and you may have the opportunity to view it from the last few posts..
I have not given any personal views to 98steps about ,why he does this, or why he should do it a different way, he did not ask me that.
Then it would not be 'his" system but would be mine, and I have no desire to do that at this point in time.
I became involved to see the system and offer a chance to program it in the software known as "WinCraps" for free.
The 95% win rate is PER 20 consecutive sessions, with specific session stopping points-more than 1 I might add-, on average.
Some group of 20 sessions never experience a session bankroll loss, some have only one loss per 20 sessions, that being the mode. At times the session has lost 2 or 3 times in 20 sessions. There is more data that can be shared but only after 98steps reviews the simulations and if he chooses to do so.
I am certain that after seeing his system, if he still allows you to see it, you will program and run the simulation yourself. Then you will have actual results and will not need to do any more speculating.
October 1st, 2010 at 9:11:51 AM
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Quote: mkl654321Feel free to send them to me via private message. I promise not to show the instructions to anyone else.
mkl654321- Thank you for your willingness to proof my instructions for clarity and your commitment to hold it as confidential. I will be forwarding it to you later this morning.
October 1st, 2010 at 9:14:35 AM
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Quote: MichaelBluejayYeah, but what kind of bankroll is required to enjoy that 95% win rate? If your bankroll isn't huge and you're often doubling your bets, you'll certainly bust out more frequently.
An active bankroll of just $5000 is all that is required.
October 1st, 2010 at 9:26:10 AM
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Quote: nope27The rules that have been agreed upon here in this thread state that the challenge will end at 1 billion RESOLVED WAGERS and there are more than one bet being made at most times.
Actually, as I understand the rules we have agreed to so far, a round is any roll on which any (may be multiple) wager is decided.
Wizard, MichaelBluejay- Is that also how you understand it?
October 1st, 2010 at 11:14:41 AM
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Yes, that's what we agreed on.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
October 1st, 2010 at 11:37:57 AM
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Quote: 98stepsmkl654321- Thank you for your willingness to proof my instructions for clarity and your commitment to hold it as confidential. I will be forwarding it to you later this morning.
Make that tomorrow morning. I apologize for the additional delay, a personal family dilemma has arisen which must take precedence.
October 1st, 2010 at 5:38:36 PM
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ed431326
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
October 1st, 2010 at 6:09:03 PM
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Maybe Mr Bluejay, for his challenge, should only accept a challenge once money and the written system has been placed into escrow with the rules stating once he programs and runs the simulation, then results and code can be checked and verified. It would have saved him a lot of time already, only to wait for a readable and understandable written system.
For some crazy reason, I keep checking this thread hoping to see that the challenge is underway!
For some crazy reason, I keep checking this thread hoping to see that the challenge is underway!
October 1st, 2010 at 7:27:56 PM
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Indeed, in the future I will probably change the challenge rules so that we sign the contract first, before I see the system. The main reason I wanted to see the system first is that I wanted to verify that someone was submitting a bona-fide betting system and not trying to jerk me around by trying to exploit a loophole in my challenge rules (i.e., trying to beat my challenge specifically, rather than trying to beat a casino game generally). However, I think if I'm careful to specify in the contract exactly what's permitted and what isn't, then I'll be safe.
Also, the contract will say that once it's signed, the challenger has something like 48 hours to get me a coherent description of the system. If he doesn't, he could forfeit on those grounds alone. If I can't understand the rules then I could appeal to the judge who could rule one way or the other on that score, and of course the recourse for each side would be spelled out.
My programming language of choice for this type of task is XTalk, because it's really fast to develop with. It doesn't execute as fast as a compiled language, but with modern computers it's plenty fast enough. My basic craps sim runs 500M rolls per hour on my MacBook Pro, and I'm estimating it would go 750M per hour on my iMac. It reads more like English than other languages. Here's my basic craps simulator:
XTalk was designed to make programming easy for non-programmers. Me, I know how to program other languages, but I still like it because it's really fast to throw a program together, especially if you want a nice user interface -- you just draw the buttons and fields on the screen like you were drawing a picture. My XTalk software is called LiveCode, which you can buy at http://RunRev.com for $99. I recommend it!
Also, the contract will say that once it's signed, the challenger has something like 48 hours to get me a coherent description of the system. If he doesn't, he could forfeit on those grounds alone. If I can't understand the rules then I could appeal to the judge who could rule one way or the other on that score, and of course the recourse for each side would be spelled out.
My programming language of choice for this type of task is XTalk, because it's really fast to develop with. It doesn't execute as fast as a compiled language, but with modern computers it's plenty fast enough. My basic craps sim runs 500M rolls per hour on my MacBook Pro, and I'm estimating it would go 750M per hour on my iMac. It reads more like English than other languages. Here's my basic craps simulator:
on mouseUp
-- Set everything up
global roundCounter,bankroll,baseBet,TotalBet
put 0 into roundCounter
put 0 into bankroll
put 0 into TotalBet
put 5 into baseBet
put empty into field output
put the seconds into startTime
// Run the sim for 5 seconds
repeat until the seconds = startTime+5
playRound
end repeat
// Report the results
put roundCounter && bankroll/TotalBet *100 & "%" after field output
end mouseUp
on playRound
global roundCounter,bankroll,baseBet,TotalBet
add 1 to roundCounter
subtract baseBet from bankroll
add baseBet to TotalBet
put random(6) + random(6) into theThrow
if theThrow=7 or theThrow=11 then
add baseBet*2 to bankroll
else if theThrow≤3 or theThrow=12 then
exit playRound
else
put theThrow into thePoint
put empty into theThrow
repeat until theThrow=thePoint or theThrow=7
put random(6) + random(6) into theThrow
if theThrow=thePoint then
add baseBet*2 to bankroll
else if theThrow=7 then
end if
end repeat
end if
end playRound
end playRound
XTalk was designed to make programming easy for non-programmers. Me, I know how to program other languages, but I still like it because it's really fast to throw a program together, especially if you want a nice user interface -- you just draw the buttons and fields on the screen like you were drawing a picture. My XTalk software is called LiveCode, which you can buy at http://RunRev.com for $99. I recommend it!
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
