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mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 14th, 2010 at 7:59:39 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Depending on the cost and accuracy, YES I would be. However, it may not be necessary. Thanks to the WizardofOdds website, I got directed to Michael Bluejay's System Challenge. I have offered to accept his challenge and am awaiting response from him.



You won't actually accept his challenge; he will demand that you rigorously prove that your system is a winner, and you'll weasel out of the challenge in some way. This is a virtual certainty.

In the extremely unlikely event that you actually fulfill the terms of his challenge, and put up the $3,000, you are absolutely certain to lose.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
98steps
98steps
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September 14th, 2010 at 10:03:52 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

You won't actually accept his challenge; he will demand that you rigorously prove that your system is a winner, and you'll weasel out of the challenge in some way. This is a virtual certainty.

In the extremely unlikely event that you actually fulfill the terms of his challenge, and put up the $3,000, you are absolutely certain to lose.



Provided that he and I are able to come to agreement regarding the restraints to be applied to the challenge, i.e. odds, vig, and the application of my stop-loss requirements, I most certainly will accept his challenge. I will be accepting his challenge at the offered level of $1000 to $10,000.

I have every confidence that my system will bear out over the long run, provided that real world restraints are in place. It is my intention to use his $10,000 to bankroll my Vegas endeavers, and intend to publish my system in 1-3 years.
98steps
98steps
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September 14th, 2010 at 10:10:17 PM permalink
I view Bluejay's challenge as a huge opportunity and a win-win situation.

If my system is as effective as I project, I will win and have the money necessary to begin serious operations.
If my system proves to be a failure, losing the challenge will save me potentially many thousands of dollars.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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September 14th, 2010 at 10:39:28 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

I view Bluejay's challenge as a huge opportunity and a win-win situation.

If my system is as effective as I project, I will win and have the money necessary to begin serious operations.
If my system proves to be a failure, losing the challenge will save me potentially many thousands of dollars.



That depends on if you actually accept his challenge, adhere to the conditions, and accept the result. However, I am certain that you won't do all of those things. It won't save you ANY money if you lose the challenge and then manage to convince yourself that your system is a "winner" anyway.

The reason I say that is that if you were inclined to accept the verdict of skilled and knowledgable mathematicians, you wouldn't have concocted your system in the first place--you would already have known that it was a fool's errand to do so.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 14th, 2010 at 10:41:04 PM permalink
Is there some other forum where I can direct people to go to discuss betting systems? I'm getting sick of it turning this forum into a cesspool.

About the Michael Bluejay challenge, I wouldn't hope for him accepting it, or even responding. He is very busy with other things and knows that such challenges almost never get off the ground.

Bluejay and I both know that after many hours of negotiating terms, when it comes time to put up the money the challenger almost always backs down. When I did my challenge about 100 people wasted my time in this manner, and just one person went through with it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 15th, 2010 at 12:11:50 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

I appreciate the suggestion Triplell, even sensing the sarcasm in your post. Regretfully, I do not have the means to run 1 billion sessions. I am seriously open to running a truly extensive testing of it, although I do not have the software necessary to do so. Is there any public domain software that could be utilized to test my theories?



WinCraps is shareware. Download it from Cloud City Software. It's highly worth paying the $19.95 license for - much cheaper than hiring someone to write a custom simulator.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 15th, 2010 at 12:13:52 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Is there some other forum where I can direct people to go to discuss betting systems? I'm getting sick of it turning this forum into a cesspool.


This subforum is called "Betting Systems". If you don't want that sort of discussion here, it's your site -- take down the subforum. Nobody will mind.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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September 15th, 2010 at 12:38:42 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

WinCraps is shareware. Download it from Cloud City Software. It's highly worth paying the $19.95 license for - much cheaper than hiring someone to write a custom simulator.



In order for one to run large "hyper-drive" simulations in Wincraps, you do need to pay the $19.95 for the license.
IF you do not know programming, this software is well worth the $20. One programs using English words and phrases, and that has its advantages. The software is only for Windows.

The site has many auto-bet files already made, and you can download them for free. Then find a bet file close to yours, adjust the bets and progressions and you have your system and its simulation results. It is worth the effort.
Test, not guess.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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September 15th, 2010 at 5:42:23 AM permalink
I think the trick might simply be to require a deposit of funds prior to even acknowledging their emails about some Sure Hit Intensive Technique betting system.

I'm pretty sure that failure to pay the Shareware fee turns the RNG into a very non-random one.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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September 15th, 2010 at 6:16:05 AM permalink
Heck, you can code simulations in Excel with a VBA macro. It's all free for people smart enough to realize you don't actually need to simulate something like this to know the result...
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it

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