Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity?
I'll write you a program for free if you like. I'll program in all true odds (mod 36 + 1 on a RNG). I'll give you freedom for all bets. Sorry, but I only know how to do text based programming, so it will be a primitive GUI. In order to produce reliable results, you would have to give me the strict rules of your system, which I'm sure you aren't comfortable doing.
The last 20x I went to the casino, I played a style I like to play with playing the don'ts and placing the 6/8. I made over $400 from all the trips, however I wouldn't consider it successful, as one time I got extremely lucky (going way against odds) and winning over $900, and another three times I lost around $200 ea (my bankroll limit).
Quote: MichaelBluejay... even 333 million traditional craps rounds ought to be plenty. What does the community think about how we should measure a round for the 1 billion round requirement?
Thanks for opening this conversation to the community Michael. I find it very interesting.
333M wagers could be more action than Vegas has seen in its entire craps history. I think that the resolution of each individual wager should count as "1".
I am not sure how to count the "sitting out" request in the event of a stop-loss hit. Would the wait be for the next 100 "7-outs", or "tosses", since each toss "potentially" resolves a wager?
I also note that casinos typically have max lay and odds limits posted, but these vary. I assume that this limit would be written into the test.
Vegas has seen way more than 333M craps wagers. There are 75 casinos in Vegas. If they average 2 tables per casino, 4 players per table, 150 rolls per hour, 1 bet resolved per roll, 16 hours a day, that's 75 x 2 x 4 x 150 x 1 x 16 = 1.4M rounds in a day. So 333M rounds takes less than a year. And I'm being conservative in my estimate. There are probably more tables and players in reality.
The system can sit out for up to 100 resolved come-out rolls.
As the rules state, I allow a bet spread of 1 to 500, so that's the limit.
Of course, another member offered to test Christiaan's system for free, so all this might all be moot. Taking the free offer should be a no-brainer.
I would ask that the sit out period between system sessions be 100 7-outs. Would that be acceptable to everyone?
What I recommend you (98steps) do is wait for the results of the WinCraps and/or Triplell simulations before further negotiations on the fine points of the rules. If they were done correctly, it will show this system not only didn't beat the house edge, but didn't even dent it.
Quote: 98stepsTriplell - Thank you for your offer to write a testing program for me. I am currently working with WinCraps (thanks also to the members that pointed me to that program), programming in my system in order to test for any flaws. My preliminary computer simulations are very encouraging. Is this program the equivalent of what you could devise?
Win craps is much more extensive and looks like it would have the ability for you to program the system without anyone else knowing your system.
Good luck, you'll need it.
And you're doing this with a PRNG rather than dice? Well, be very careful that you implement the RNG properly...
1. getting the passline to vary according to predetermined odds bets
2. programming in predetermined stopping points
3. moving odds from a buy bet when it is the point, and returning the value to the buy bet once the point has been resolved
Quote: MathExtremist
And you're doing this with a PRNG rather than dice? Well, be very careful that you implement the RNG properly...
at the risk of tarnishing my already questionable image here, I am fairly ignorant of RNG's. What do you mean implement it properly? Don't they simply generate truly random numbers according to the same probabilities that control dice? Please, educate me.
Quote: 98stepsat the risk of tarnishing my already questionable image here, I am fairly ignorant of RNG's. What do you mean implement it properly? Don't they simply generate truly random numbers according to the same probabilities that control dice? Please, educate me.
Random number generators need to be seeded, which is already taken care of with WinCraps, so you should be fine. I think they allow you to reseed it if you like.
Anyway, you don't need to know programming to know how to run WinCraps. Just understand logic. The best way would be to write out your betting system with If statements, IE, if this happens, then I'll do this.
Simple.
Quote: TriplellRandom number generators need to be seeded, which is already taken care of with WinCraps, so you should be fine. I think they allow you to reseed it if you like.
Anyway, you don't need to know programming to know how to run WinCraps. Just understand logic. The best way would be to write out your betting system with If statements, IE, if this happens, then I'll do this.
Simple.
Of course, a true RNG hasn't been invented yet. All we have are PRNGs (pseudo-RNGs).
Quote: 98stepsPlease Help.......I have programmed about 2/3 of my system into WinCraps. I am having a great deal of trouble getting several issues programmed correctly. As I stated before, I am NOT a computer programmer in any way. If any of you are conversant with this program, I would greatly appreciate any help you can give me in programming certain aspects.
1. getting the passline to vary according to predetermined odds bets
2. programming in predetermined stopping points
3. moving odds from a buy bet when it is the point, and returning the value to the buy bet once the point has been resolved
I am a pretty experienced WinCraps user and have written many, many AutoBet files. I advise you to read carefully the Help file sections on AutoBet construction, especially the use of Chip Stacks.
For example, I just wrote a program that implements a progression on odds, using a couple of Chip Stacks.
When initializing:
Bet $1 on Chip Stack #1
While (some condition, like bankroll at a certain level)
Bet $2 on Chip Stack #1
While a point is established on the number n
Bet 500% of Chip Stack #1 on pass line odds
For stopping, I use:
While . . .
The # of rolls in the game are not less than 200
Next roll is a come-out roll
or while . . .
Bankroll is not greater than $ 25
or while . . .
Bankroll is not less than $ 350
then . . .
Add $ 1 to Chip-Stack # 27
Bet $ 1 on Chip-Stack # 1
Bet $ 2 on Chip-Stack # 2
Reset table (preserve Chip-Stacks)
(So, the first two conditions end the session after about two hours, but make sure any pass bet is resolved)
(The 2nd condition is obvious) AND
(The 3rd condition implements a win goal)
(Chip stack #27 keeps track of the number of 200-roll sessions.)
When . . .
Chip-Stack # 27 is equal to $ 10000
then . . .
Stop Auto-Rolling / Hyper-Drive
(So, this stops the "Hyper-Drive" after 10,000 sessions.)
You can also download a whole bunch of AutoBet files from the WinCraps Website for free.
Good luck. I think that WinCraps can definitely help you to not lose the $1000, as you will realize your system cannot overcome the casino's edge. A system like yours may result in a very high percentage of winning sessions, but the mean net outcome is still going to be negative. I promise you.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: TriplellI didn't think that was his question. But yeah, nothing is truely random when it comes to computers. However, it really isn't an issue if the random number generator is seeded, which WinCraps does.
A proper seed just ensures that an RNG is in a long cycle. The MT does this just fine. But it's not seeding the RNG that's the problem, it's mapping its results onto game outcomes. If you do this wrong, your sim will suffer from low-order bias. In short, "(mod 36 + 1 on a RNG)" is not good enough because 36 is not an integral power of 2.
Quote: 98stepsI would ask that the sit out period between system sessions be 100 7-outs. Would that be acceptable to everyone?
Quote: The WizardI can't speak for Bluejay, but I think he will say that one "session" will have to start immediately after the last one. In other words, he is not going to draw random numbers if there is no money bet. That would violate the 1-500 unit bet spread rule.
Actually, my challenge rules say that sitting out is perfectly acceptable. And I'm happy to draw random numbers until up to 100 seven-outs between sessions. System purveyors often decide to sit out when a table is running "cold", so I think in fairness I have to simulate that. I was worried that this could lead to a 100 billion-round trial which would take forever to run, but I just did a quick test and even in my (relatively slow) language of choice it would be done in four hours.
But again, if 98steps can get WinCraps to simulate what he wants, or takes Triplell up on his offer to code a sim for free, then all this is moot.
Quote: MathExtremistWait - this discussion is still going on? Is there actually some question as to whether the d'Alembert betting system can alter the EV of its component wagers?
I must agree with the above quote 100%.
Why is this thread so "tame" as opposed to other "gambling systems" threads?
Maybe we want to witness someone losing money to Mr. Bluejay so we can all say "we told you so"!
I have ran millions (seems like millions) of simulations using WinCraps over the years, and every one tells me the same thing. Not one system can show a profit after a billion rounds, not even hundreds of millions of rounds.
Someone with a lifetime of play could show a net profit at the end of their life.
THREAD MOVED HERE
Quote: MichaelBluejayActually, my challenge rules say that sitting out is perfectly acceptable. And I'm happy to draw random numbers until up to 100 seven-outs between sessions. System purveyors often decide to sit out when a table is running "cold", so I think in fairness I have to simulate that. I was worried that this could lead to a 100 billion-round trial which would take forever to run, but I just did a quick test and even in my (relatively slow) language of choice it would be done in four hours.
But again, if 98steps can get WinCraps to simulate what he wants, or takes Triplell up on his offer to code a sim for free, then all this is moot.
Michael- If I am reading your last post correctly, you are offering to accept 100 7-outs per system session. Thank you for that concession.
I have managed to program my system into WinCraps (Thank you to everyone who advised me on how to do that) and am currently running a full system check. My enthusiasm and confidence is not diminished.
Once all the details are worked out, contract agreed to and money in escrow.....I provide you with the system and you program it......will I be able to review the program to confirm accuracy before the actual official test?
Quote: 98stepsQuote: MichaelBluejayActually, my challenge rules say that sitting out is perfectly acceptable. And I'm happy to draw random numbers until up to 100 seven-outs between sessions. System purveyors often decide to sit out when a table is running "cold", so I think in fairness I have to simulate that. I was worried that this could lead to a 100 billion-round trial which would take forever to run, but I just did a quick test and even in my (relatively slow) language of choice it would be done in four hours.
But again, if 98steps can get WinCraps to simulate what he wants, or takes Triplell up on his offer to code a sim for free, then all this is moot.
Michael- If I am reading your last post correctly, you are offering to accept 100 7-outs per system session.
Sorry for the mis-wording here......100 7-outs between each system session.
Quote: guido111
Someone in their lifetime could show a net profit from gambling. But not for a few million trials.
Example:
years played: 60 (from age 21 to age 81)
goes to Las Vegas 1 time every year and plays the pass line only at Craps. No odds, just $5 pass bets and free cocktail service.
each trip 24 hours of play, any way they so choose. 3-8 hour days, 4-6 hour days, etc.
1 million craps players. for 10 million craps players, multiply the below results by 10.
Question: How many will show a profit after 60 years? Remember the long run is infinity, so we are not at the long run.
1440 lifetime hours (60x24)
43200 pass line bets total (30 per hour x 1440 hours)
total wagers
$216,000.00
-$3,054.55
Expected Loss
Answers:
1,670 break even or show a profit (0.166994%)
1,619 show a profit of $10 or more
Profit or more/players
$100/1,219.5
$200/882.9
$500/318.1
$1000/48.7
1880/1.0
can it get better with time, like a few million more pass line bets. We all know the answer.
close to 1 out of 16,458,428,050,395,670,235...maybe if you are lucky!
However, if these players took odds, the chances of coming out ahead are greatly increased. I recommend reading two articles in my blog, the first of which ("Two Million Players") presents a similar example to the above, then the one entitled "Free Variance".
In the above example, with 3, 4, 5X odds the ev would be the same, but the standard deviation ($1039 without odds) would be $5108, requiring well under a single standard deviation of "good luck" to break even or show a profit. More than a quarter of the players would be expected to "have their heads above water"; of course, too bad for the unlucky ones!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: 98steps...will I be able to review the program to confirm accuracy before the actual official test?
As the challenge rules plainly state, I'll provide you with the source code. It doesn't matter whether I provide it before or after the test, because your recourse is listed if you think the code is in error. (And I just clarified that section to make it even plainer.) Please don't ask me about stuff that's in the rules.
I tried to discourage you from accepting, but if you're determined to do so, that's your choice. If and when you want to proceed, let me know and we'll proceed to agreeing on the contract. I suggest I post it here to get input from the community as to the wording before we both agree to it. I like transparency.
Quote: goatcabinHowever, if these players took odds, the chances of coming out ahead are greatly increased. I recommend reading two articles in my blog, the first of which ("Two Million Players") presents a similar example to the above, then the one entitled "Free Variance".
In the above example, with 3, 4, 5X odds the ev would be the same, but the standard deviation ($1039 without odds) would be $5108, requiring well under a single standard deviation of "good luck" to break even or show a profit. More than a quarter of the players would be expected to "have their heads above water"; of course, too bad for the unlucky ones!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Nice work Alan. Nice blogs.
Yes, but my point was to show the small amount of people that showed a profit after 43,200 trials. a very small amount as you well know.
after a few million, few hundred million more trials.
I think you know how many would still show a profit.
In a 60 year gambling lifetime, I think it is rare to "see" well over a million trials or more, it would be the exception.
Quote: 98stepsIf a system is proven to be a consistant winner, is there anyone out there that would consider financing its operation?
taking us back to your original post question, I would only consider financing a "system" if it proves to be a consistent winner.
I think we all have different ideas as to the meaning of "a consistent winner"
that brings us to Mr Bluejay and his challenge.
How close are you to accepting Mr Bluejay's challenge with rules you both agree to?
It would be sad to see this thread change into another topic.
Quote: 98stepsI have developed a craps strategy that utilizes a combination of 0% wagers and systematic betting progressions. Thru fairly extensive testing it is trending at 95% effectiveness, winning between 500-800 (average win 700) on 19 out of 20 sessions, losing +/-4500 on the one session. I have tested my theories at home as well as on live tables.
OK. short term success. better than short term failure.
Quote: 98stepsIf a system is proven to be a consistant winner, is there anyone out there that would consider financing its operation?
YES, me. read on.
I say, IF and when you prove your system IS a "consistent winner", and that means for me my bankroll keeps growing without ruin, are you still willing to risk $1000 to Mr Bluejay?
I would also offer to run a simulation for free, then if it passes my bankroll test, I would be willing to put up $3000 for your challenge. Mr Bluejay would like that better, I am sure of it.
But, I know I would fail the challenge. Mr Bluejay knows what he is talking about is true. He writes about many subjects and gambling is one that he knows very well.
My last statement:
Is the challenge a "go"
or a "no"
Good Luck!
Quote: MichaelBluejayAs the challenge rules plainly state, I'll provide you with the source code. It doesn't matter whether I provide it before or after the test, because your recourse is listed if you think the code is in error. (And I just clarified that section to make it even plainer.) Please don't ask me about stuff that's in the rules.
I tried to discourage you from accepting, but if you're determined to do so, that's your choice. If and when you want to proceed, let me know and we'll proceed to agreeing on the contract. I suggest I post it here to get input from the community as to the wording before we both agree to it. I like transparency.
I am in total agreement with posting and agreeing to the contract terms here on the community board.
Quote: nope27taking us back to your original post question, I would only consider financing a "system" if it proves to be a consistent winner.
I think we all have different ideas as to the meaning of "a consistent winner"
that brings us to Mr Bluejay and his challenge.
How close are you to accepting Mr Bluejay's challenge with rules you both agree to?
It would be sad to see this thread change into another topic.
Nope27- I appreciate your open-mindedness. I am extremely close to final acceptance of Mr. Bluejay's challenge. I beleive most of the talking points have been discussed and informally agreed to in this forum.
Quote: 98stepsI am in total agreement with posting and agreeing to the contract terms here on the community board.
It seems to me from rule 4 that the next step would be to show MB the specifics of the betting system. Perhaps you should send him a private message with the details. You may want to think ahead to rule 5 about who to use as the neutral third party. Any attorneys on the forum? If not, I am available. Again, I can't speak for either party; I'm just trying to moderate and expedite things.
Quote: MB challenge rules
4. You must explain the rules of the system clearly and unambiguously. At the start of any given round, it should be dead obvious how the player is supposed to wager.
5. We will execute a contract, and then deposit our money in escrow up front with a neutral, mutually-agreed-upon attorney who will also act as judge. After you make your deposit, you may not withdraw from the challenge. The only way for you to reclaim your deposited money will be to win the challenge, otherwise you forfeit.
Thanks,
Christiaan
Will you act as the intermediary? Hold the funds in escrow and act as impartial judge?
Once I've verified that it satisfies the rules, I'll post the sample contract to this forum. After everyone's had their input, I'll run it by my lawyer. Once we've got a good agreed-upon contract, we'll both sign it and place our money in escrow with the Wizard. Then I'll program the simulation and run the test.
I'll accept any wager amount between $1000 and $3000, so anyone who wants to throw in their lot with 98steps is welcome to do so. He doesn't have to bet exactly $1000 or $3000, so anything he raises up to the $3000 limit is fine. My own bet will be 10x whatever is wagered against me.
Quote: 98stepsMichael- I am sufficiently thru my own computer simulation. Let's get this contract ironed out.
Thanks,
Christiaan
How much computer simulation did you do? Did you take up anyone's offer to do a free simulation? Wincraps might be a good program, but if you make an error setting it up, who knows what might happen.
Quote: mipletHow much computer simulation did you do? Did you take up anyone's offer to do a free simulation? Wincraps might be a good program, but if you make an error setting it up, who knows what might happen.
Excellent question miplet.
Wincraps auto bet files can be tricky to program. I have on many occasions placed a few lines of perfect code in the wrong position and only found the mistake after playing a session manually and saw that the results were not the same.
I had offered earlier to front $3000 for the challenge, only after I could test the system myself.
Seems to me my offer was not accepted.
good luck!
Quote: nope27Excellent question miplet.
Wincraps auto bet files can be tricky to program. I have on many occasions placed a few lines of perfect code in the wrong position and only found the mistake after playing a session manually and saw that the results were not the same.
I had offered earlier to front $3000 for the challenge, only after I could test the system myself.
Seems to me my offer was not accepted.
good luck!
I have not accepted anyone else's offer to simulate. Have currently simulated 40,000 rolls, and 100 system sessions over the last couple of days. Watching the entire process in order to ensure that the program behaves properly.
Nope27, I sincerely appreciate the offer, but respectfully decline.
Quote: AussieThis will be the easiest money Mr Blujay makes in his entire life if it actually goes ahead.
Don't count on it. I've made more on a dollar-per-hour basis in business, stocks, real estate, and gambling. (That last one is courtesy of the Wizard. I used to piggyback my money onto his expert Superbowl picks.)
Anyway, I'm just waiting for 98steps to send his system rules to me, and then we can work on agreeing to a contract. The ball's in his court now.
Quote: 98stepsI don't have it in fully written out detail currently. Most of my notes are in shorthand notes to me alone. I am currently working on it. You will have it by Monday at the latest.
Hopefully it is fewer than 98 steps.
Quote: MichaelBluejayI got it, and as expected, it's gibberish. Feel free to send it again in English. And no, I won't help you with it.
Fortunately, we have an English teacher in our midst. From the "cheating boyfriends" thread:
Quote: mkl654321That post serves as yet another reminder of why I'm an English teacher.
I wonder if he will translate it from gibberish to English.
I will re-write the directions for operating my system and try to make the directions more understandable to you.
Quote: 98stepsPerhaps the formatting did not transfer with the data when I cut and pasted it per your request.
Oh please. It's plain text! There is no "formatting". The problem, as I said before, is that it's not written in understandable English.
Quote: 98stepsI do not believe I ever asked for, or implied that I needed, help with it.
You're right, you didn't imply that you needed help with it. I did. What you submitted is so fantastically far from understandable that I'm not going to accept any further submissions until you've had someone else help fix it. Otherwise, you'd submit an incomprehensible version, and I'd say "No", then you'd submit another incomprehensible version, and we'd keep going round and round and wasting my time.
Quote: MichaelBluejayI'm not going to accept any further submissions until you've had someone else help fix it.
As it is now a requirement that my System submission be proof-read and corrected, I am asking that those in the community that would be willing to help me please let me know.
