guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 3rd, 2010 at 6:24:59 PM permalink
Chances of gamblers who play for a lifetime and their probabilities at death to have a net win from gambling.
Seems this topic is trying to take over an existing thread, here is its new home.
Quote: Wizard

For those who think a billion bets is unrealistic, think of a billion bet simulation as the average results of a 10,000 people using a system for 100,000 bets.


Nice observation. I had not thought about it in that sense.
Then would 1 billion people using a system for 1 bet also be the same thing?

My point only was that NO single person could ever see 1 billion rounds in a casino in a lifetime.
I would make that a challenge for those that disagree with me.

Quote: 7craps


But it does show, that sessions can be won for a specific amount of time.

Alan would agree that it is possible for someone to play for 70 years and die showing a positive net outcome from gambling.
But that should be the subject of another thread.



Let us begin here.
from the "Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity?" thread that we all agree should be kept to it's topic of the challenge.

Goatcabin has this:
I addressed this general issue in my first blog, "Two Million Players", which you can read at http://wizardofvegas.com/member/goatcabin/blog/2/#post7.
"If two million players each made 10,000 $5 passline bets, taking 3, 4, 5X odds, we would expect something in the neighborhood of 38% of them to be even or ahead. That certainly doesn't mean they have a winning system. "
Goatcabin's blog is a good one to read.

10,000 pass line wagers takes 33,758 rolls to resolve on average. Not even close to 1 million rolls or higher. (10,000*(557/165))

Question: I would like to know how many would still show a profit after 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million dice rolls?

From an earlier post:
"But some could see 2 to 3 million dice rolls in a lifetime.
65 years (X) 12 trips to Vegas per (X) 32 hrs at a craps table (X) 120 rolls per hour = almost 3 million dice rolls seen."

and what about 3 million lifetime dice rolls? Let's start with a smaller number of rolls first and work our way up if necessary.

Example 1: 146,000 lifetime dice rolls
(Note:results are from an extended binomial distribution table, not a simulation)
years played: 60 (from age 21 to age 81)

goes to Las Vegas 1 time every year and plays the pass line only at Craps. No odds, just $5 pass bets and free cocktail service.
each trip 24 hours of play, any way they so choose. 3-8 hour days, 4-6 hour days, etc.
1 million craps players.( for 10 million craps players, multiply the below results by 10.)

Question: How many will show a profit after 60 years? Remember the long run is infinity, so we are not in the long run.
1440 lifetime hours (60x24)
43200 pass line bets total (30 per hour x 1440 hours)

145,833 dice rolls (43200*(557/165))

total wagers
$216,000.00
-$3,054.55
Expected Loss

Answers: per 1 million players (multiply by 10 for 10 million players)
1,670 break even or show a profit (0.166994%) 1 in 19,586.3
1,619 show a profit of $10 or more (1 in 20,149.1)

Profit or more/players
$100/1,219.5 (1 in 26,109.7)
$200/882.9 (1 in 35,129.6)
$500/318.1 (1 in 90,450.7)
$1000/48.7 (1 in 526,502.6)
$1880/1.0 (1 in 21,469,201.2)

Do you think you can be one of the few to still be even or ahead after 43,200 pass line wagers and 146,000 dice rolls?
"...you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?"
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 3rd, 2010 at 6:48:31 PM permalink
ed43139
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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October 3rd, 2010 at 7:05:05 PM permalink
Quote: guido111


Then would 1 billion people using a system for 1 bet also be the same thing?



I think there is a limit to how far the relationship can be extrapolated. If all 1 billion people acted in concert to replicate the various stages of the single system, then i think it's the same thing. If they all made the first bet in whatever foolish progression they were using, then their results would be different from (and probably better than) the results of one system bettor's 1 billion event sequence.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett

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