Coronavirus math
Quote: KeyserFAKE
The asian coworker walked in. The mexican worker joked to the asian worker. Its inappropriate. I ignored them
Quote: jjjooogggThe asian coworker walked in. The mexican worker joked to the asian worker. Its inappropriate. I ignored them
Some people are addicted to being outraged. Don't fall into the trap. In general people are good. Don't let social media convince you otherwise. Rather than going out of your way to try and find something to upset you, focus on the positive for a change.
People should be mad as hell though at the communist party in China. Communism again put the world at risk. Sanctions should be considered. Economic devastation world wide because of the cover up and lies.
I highly recommend that everyone watch "Chernobly", the series.
Quote: KeyserI call BS. More fake twitter propaganda. Did Kim or Madonna tell you that? If only we were as cool as they are.
The US has plenty of named viruses like Lyme (Lyme Conn.) and Norovirus (Norwalk Ohio). The location of a virus doesn't make it racist. Ignore social media. There's currently another virus circulating on social media. It's called stupidity.
Now, how about those new virus numbers?
So all the stories of Asians being attacked and insulted are BS? Is that what you are saying?
Quote: billryanSo all the stories of Asians being attacked and insulted are BS? Is that what you are saying?
He is saying don't be outraged. People are generally good.
Unless they are Chinese, communist, liberal media, social websites, doctors who claim hydroxychloriquine doesn't work against Coronavirus,
Madonna
Kim (Kardashian or Little not sure who)
And Mods who ask him not to call Covid-19 a racially charged name
Then you should be outraged
Quote: jjjoooggg
Would you mind if we call this the USA virus
If it starts in the USA not at all. We have names like Legionnaires disease already. Do members of the American Legion get upset and offended at that name? What about Lou Gehrig's disease? Named after just one guy!
On the other site there is a thread on "Pittsburgh Toilets." I assure you nobody here in Pittsburgh gets offended there.
Then again, it is not the Chinese who are offended. It is others getting offended for them.
Exactly!Quote: AZduffmanThen again, it is not the Chinese who are offended. It is others getting offended for them.
When should the country open back up? How many days/weeks?
Quote: KeyserExactly!
When should the country open back up? How many days/weeks?
By May 1.
Quote: AZDuffmanIf it starts in the USA not at all. We have names like Legionnaires disease already. Do members of the American Legion get upset and offended at that name? What about Lou Gehrig's disease? Named after just one guy!
On the other site there is a thread on "Pittsburgh Toilets." I assure you nobody here in Pittsburgh gets offended there.
Then again, it is not the Chinese who are offended. It is others getting offended for them.
Just because we named diseases after people/places in the past, doesn't mean we should necessarily keep doing it. People change. Ideas change. If nothing ever changed, we'd still would own slaves in this country. And this isn't the official name for this anyway, so why are we even using it?
Quote: AZDuffmanIf it starts in the USA not at all..
So you have no problem calling the Spanish Flu the American Flu from now on?
First case was documented in the USA. Either way, it didn't come from Spain
Quote: darkozSo you have no problem calling the Spanish Flu the American Flu from now on?
First case was documented in the USA. Either way, it didn't come from Spain
You want to try to change 100 years of practice be my guest. I would suggest instead that you not waste so much of your life worrying about harmless words and descriptions.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou want to try to change 100 years of practice be my guest. I would suggest instead that you not waste so much of your life worrying about harmless words and descriptions.
Thanks, I will
It looks like the Coronavirus will not be as bad as the American Flu of 1918.
From what I can tell: most people who call it Chinese virus or Trump virus do so because they want to be annoying and make an annoying political statement. Then they get overly defensive and emotional when they feel like they are being treated like they are an annoying and tacky person. This seems to be the case here.
On the math part: I love that we've been able to hear about 'exponential growth' for a full month now. Isn't virtually all growth exponential? The most important thing is what the exponent is being used. The top news story everyday should be a lesson on fractional exponents. Based on the past few days it looks like we're reaching the first part of the goal, using an exponent of 1, or linear growth. I love how we have to make up a new term "flat curve" to describe a line.* US seems to have settled in at a little over 30,000 new positive tests and 2,000 deaths every day. Now it's just a matter of seeing if that 30,000 / 2,000 really is linear, and how long that lasts.
*This is also my logic for why I believe the Earth is flat: any curve is flat if you zoom in close enough.
So, what he is really doing is trolling.
Quote: TomGI came here thinking there might be discussion around math related to coronavirus. Silly me.
From what I can tell: most people who call it Chinese virus or Trump virus do so because they want to be annoying and make an annoying political statement. Then they get overly defensive and emotional when they feel like they are being treated like they are an annoying and tacky person. This seems to be the case here.
I see flipside. People worried about a word instead of worrying about what is important. We are now seeing what happens when 40% of the USA cannot handle a $400 emergency, or whatever the exact number was we hear it every few months. But they are not important, the reaction of a nation that is an enemy of the USA is?
Quote:On the math part: I love that we've been able to hear about 'exponential growth' for a full month now. Isn't virtually all growth exponential? The most important thing is what the exponent is being used. The top news story everyday should be a lesson on fractional exponents. Based on the past few days it looks like we're reaching the first part of the goal, using an exponent of 1, or linear growth. I love how we have to make up a new term "flat curve" to describe a line.* US seems to have settled in at a little over 30,000 new positive tests and 2,000 deaths every day. Now it's just a matter of seeing if that 30,000 / 2,000 really is linear, and how long that lasts.
The early numbers are starting to prove to have been inflated. I am also noticing this thing is seeming regionalized so far. Ironically, CA is not as sick as one would think given how much Asia-travel it picks up as well as how crowded it is. Is herd-immunity really a thing?
Quote: billryanQuote: gordonm888" The covid-19 coronavirus originated in Wuhan, China."
"The Chinese government has issued false statements accusing the U.S. military of starting the covid-19 coronavirus."
"There is considerable government intelligence and considerable reporting from the media that China is massively underreporting the covid-19 cases and deaths in their country."
"There have been media reports alleging that the covid-19 coronavirus was accidently released from a Chinese govenrment laboratory."
"MSNBC's parent company is building a theme park in Beijing, China with (massive) financial investment from the Chinese government. Judging from the recent situation with the NBA, the Chinese Communist Party has been known to take a disproportionately large response against its financial partners if and when they criticize China. Therefore, the unwillingness of MSNBC to criticize China in any way is seen by some observers as an unannounced conflict of interest that has deformed their reporting."
The above are all factual statements. These statements are neither political nor racist. They do not slur an ethnic group nor espouse a partisan political viewpoint. They may be helpful in that they inform the understanding of the covid-19 outbreak and the evolving U.S relationship with the Chinese government during this crisis.
Now, let's get back to discussing the math of the Coronavirus projections.
Using this 'logic", is it surprising that fox is attacking China? After all, the Universal theme park Comcast is building in China will be directly competing with Disney's theme parks. Anything bad for China is good for Disney. Makes sense if you bang your head a few times and squint into the sun long enough.
Bill, I agree. I feel that Fox has been attacking China in a targeted, hostile manner. And your calling out of a possible conflict of interest that Fox may have is entirely fair and valid. CNN also has some conflicts of interest (e.g., a lawsuit by the President against them.) Actually, I have a hard time finding any competent objective news source on cable for reporting of the coronavirus pandemic.
Quote: gordonm888
Bill, I agree. I feel that Fox has been attacking China in a targeted, hostile manner. And your calling out of a possible conflict of interest that Fox may have is entirely fair and valid. CNN also has some conflicts of interest (e.g., a lawsuit by the President against them.) Actually, I have a hard time finding any competent objective news source on cable for reporting of the coronavirus pandemic.
Many networks have a decent slant. News shouldn't have bias, but it certainly does.
Quote: AZDuffmanI see flipside. People worried about a word instead of worrying about what is important. We are now seeing what happens when 40% of the USA cannot handle a $400 emergency, or whatever the exact number was we hear it every few months. But they are not important, the reaction of a nation that is an enemy of the USA is?
You were among those making multiple posts defending why your view about what we call it is right.
Quote: AZDuffmanThe early numbers are starting to prove to have been inflated. I am also noticing this thing is seeming regionalized so far. Ironically, CA is not as sick as one would think given how much Asia-travel it picks up as well as how crowded it is. Is herd-immunity really a thing?
It is now being reported that the US was hit hardest from travel that came from Europe, not Asia. West coast crowding is far less that east / northeast crowding. Los Angeles is 66% larger than New York with less than half the population (according to about 30 seconds on google). Herd-immunity definitely can be a thing, another 30-seconds on google shows mortality rate from chicken pox is at 20%. But the vaccine is pretty new, so why wasn't it so deadly before the vaccine? Because it mostly kills adults, so when enough people would get it as kids, there was very little risk of an outbreak. It is very possible there could be herd-immunity for this new American virus, but it is not certain. There is no herd-immunity for the cold or flu.
(American virus is an acceptable term because this community has decided there is no agreed upon name and there have been more deaths and confirmed cases here than any other country in the world)
Again, everyone really should watch "Chernobyl" the series.
Quote: TomG
(American virus is an acceptable term because this community has decided there is no agreed upon name and there have been more deaths and confirmed cases here than any other country in the world)
You are aware that we have more cases because we have more population? It started in China, let them have the name.
"Confirmed Cases" is key. China's numbers on anything are suspect.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou are aware that we have more cases because we have more population? It started in China, let them have the name.
"Confirmed Cases" is key. China's numbers on anything are suspect.
There are more people in America than in China???
Quote: AZDuffmanYou are aware that we have more cases because we have more population? It started in China, let them have the name.
"Confirmed Cases" is key. China's numbers on anything are suspect.
It is fascinating how defensive, emotional, and illogical people can get over this issue. First you were trying to point out how this issue wasn't important, now you're making it into a much bigger deal than it needs to be.
China's data is extremely distorted. As is the data from most countries. Like a lot of things, what is important is how we choose to interpret what we do have available. It seems what you care most about is demanding everyone gives you permission to assign blame on China.
Quote: darkozThere are more people in America than in China???
Didn't say we did. We are #3 in population. We are also seeing C virus cases counted when it could have been something else (more deaths means more $$$).
Meanwhile China puts up numbers that cannot be trusted, same as you cannot trust most any number China puts out.
To say "The USA has the most cases" is like saying there are more GM cars involved in accidents than any other. People who use their brain power know why it is.
This thread is becoming a political thread with code words.
People are gonna get angry as certain members thrive on these new political code words (designed to get around the forum rules)
And I don't want to get suspended again
Quote: darkozDeleted
This thread is becoming a political thread with code words.
People are gonna get angry as certain members thrive on these new political code words (designed to get around the forum rules)
And I don't want to get suspended again
That's ludicrous.
Quote: KeyserExactly!
When should the country open back up? How many days/weeks?
When it is safe, which is no time soon. Ask again in two weeks. It took a month to kill 1,000 Americans. Today we may lose more people than we did on September 11th. If, in two weeks, the deaths are in the vicinity of 50,000 overall, it might be time to plan on slowly opening. If it's closer to 100,000, then we wait another two weeks. I can't see MLB playing before a live audience this season, and doubt many colleges will want to host big football games.
(Hint...It's related to Chernobly)
Quote:Chinese people are the various individuals or ethnic groups associated with China, usually through ancestry, ethnicity, nationality, citizenship, or other affiliation. The Han Chinese are the largest ethnic group in China, comprising approximately 92% of its mainland population.
When I heard house representive Chu saying people are getting dirty looks, I stopped caring about feelings.
The world owes China for this disease and look who is benefiting, CHINA.
Quote: KeyserWhat do you believe the reason is that some countries including the US took this virus so seriously? (Other than the fact that it was novel?) After all, we don't usually respond with quarantines and shelter in place orders.
(Hint...It's related to Chernobly)
I let it go a few times (and I am sure others did too), but I had to look up this "Chernobly" to make sure I wasn't missing something.
the Amish were brutally slandered in that stupid a** cable show "Amish Mafia"
its great to see a story that shows how the vast majority of them really are
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/us/politics/amish-coronavirus-ohio.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
Quote: lilredroostera great and touching story about how the Amish mobilized to help people all over the country, not just in their community
the Amish were brutally slandered in that stupid a** cable show "Amish Mafia"
its great to see a story that shows how the vast majority of them really are
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/us/politics/amish-coronavirus-ohio.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
Props to those Amish working hard for the rest of the nation's benefit.
Quote: darkozDeleted
This thread is becoming a political thread with code words.
People are gonna get angry as certain members thrive on these new political code words (designed to get around the forum rules)
And I don't want to get suspended again
I agree with DarkOz - this has become a political thread.
Quote: lilredroostera great and touching story about how the Amish mobilized to help people all over the country, not just in their community
the Amish were brutally slandered in that stupid a** cable show "Amish Mafia"
its great to see a story that shows how the vast majority of them really are
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/us/politics/amish-coronavirus-ohio.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage
I live near the other major Amish community, Lancaster PA.
They are good people and will work and sell things very inexpensively.
I had an Amish guy put new windows in my house, he charged $300/window installed, and it was a decent brand.
Quote: gamerfreakI live near the other major Amish community, Lancaster PA.
They are good people and will work and sell things very inexpensively.
I had an Amish guy put new windows in my house, he charged $300/window installed, and it was a decent brand.
for a long time now, we've bought all of our furniture from the Amish
not inexpensive but great stuff - 100% solid wood and hand made with pride and lasts forever
they always give you 110%
sometimes it's really surprising and almost comical
there is an Amish restaurant near me
I once ordered a steak and cheese sub there
I was expecting strips of steak like everybody else makes a steak and cheese
𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐩𝐮𝐭 𝐚 𝐰𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐛 𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥
I was like whoa.................{(-:}
Quote: tringlomaneI let it go a few times (and I am sure others did too), but I had to look up this "Chernobly" to make sure I wasn't missing something.
"Chernobly" I meant to type Chernobyl Ha!
The reason I keep mentioning it is because of this virus and the coverup. The H1N1 virus of 2009 was novel as well. Something like 61 million Americans were supposedly infected. But there was no panic, and shelter in place orders were not issued. Again, this virus was novel as well. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
The reason the world largely over reacted to the Wuhan, China Covid-19 Virus was because of the secrecy and cover up by the communist party.
1. Intelligence agencies saw a virus suddenly devastating Wuhan China.
2. Wuhan is home to bio a weapons facility. Wuhan Institute of Virology.
3. Chinese researchers/ doctors/ scientists managed to leak stories of the devastation caused by a mystery virus centered in Wuhan and provide what is supposed to be the sequencing of the virus before mysteriously disappearing or dying. But intel agencies can't substantiate the claims or the sequencing.
4. The communist gov denies the existence at first and greatly downplays the claims. The propaganda machine kicks into high gear and twitter accounts around the world are hijacked/hacked by the communist propaganda machine. Communication is shut down in Wuhan.
5. Scientists and health offices are denied access during the early periods.
6. Intel agencies around the world must assume the worst, that the virus could be a bio weapon that has either been accidentally released or released by extremists
because the virus has yet to be sequenced and studied outside of China.
7. The propaganda machine then begins claiming that the virus is a bio weapon made by the US army and later says that it was just a virus brought to China by the US military.
8. This is why the leaders are still scared to death. Our gov is discretely informing state governors that we don't believe that this is a bio weapon but we can't be absolutely sure at this time. And yes, I know that we've now sequenced the virus outside of China, and that it looks like a natural virus. But intel still likely believes (man made of not) that the virus came from the inside of the Wuhan Institute of Virology,.
9. Governments around the world see the devastating in Wuhan China, and must assume the worst because of their histories with communist regimes. They recall Chernobyl. Even though mounting evidence points to a virus that was not man made, they can't be sure because of the lies and the possibility that they may still be using the natural virus as some type of weapon.
10. The propaganda machine effectively manipulates social media and gullible people into believing that merely mentioning the city of Wuhan when referencing the virus is racist.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/09/no-more-visiting-friends-and-neighbors-under-whitmers-expanded-coronavirus-order/5125426002/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207015/Boston-suburb-sets-one-way-sidewalks-fine-walk-wrong-direction.html
https://www.hbo.com/chernobyl (A great series. Yes, there are some exaggerations for entertainment, but it's close enough.)
-Keyser
Quote: Keyser
The reason the world largely over reacted to the Wuhan, China Covid-19 Virus was because of the secrecy and cover up by the communist party.
You mean so few deaths and hospitals being able to manage easily in the world was due to overreacting?
Wow, I hate to see what would happen if we hadn't overreacted.
Currently, some field hospitals are being dismantled and or moved.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/washington-field-hospital-coronavirus-dismantle
Some ventilators are now being sent back to storage. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/controversy-california-governor-sends-500-ventilators-back-national/story?id=70067090
Many hospitals around the country are actually rather empty. NY is of course an exception and there are others.
Millions are not expected to die in the US.
Every few days the predicted mortality drop substantially, even in the countries that aren't "social distancing" like Sweden and Brazil.
Quote: KeyserYes, we largely over reacted. In hindsight though we had no choice but to over react because of the communist regime in China. Intel agencies around the world were forced to believe that it was possibly a bio weapon.
Some field hospitals are being dismantled and or moved.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/washington-field-hospital-coronavirus-dismantle
Some ventilators are now being sent back to storage.
Many hospitals around the country are actually rather empty.
Millions are not expected to die in the US. Every few days the predicted mortality drop substantially, even in the countries that aren't "social distancing" like Sweden and Brazil.
Not a huge surprise. Bad models.
Quote: KeyserYes, we largely over reacted. In hindsight though we had no choice but to over react because of the communist regime in China. Intel agencies around the world were forced to believe that it was possibly a bio weapon.
Some field hospitals are being dismantled and or moved.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/washington-field-hospital-coronavirus-dismantle
Some ventilators are now being sent back to storage.
Many hospitals around the country are actually rather empty.
Millions are not expected to die in the US. Every few days the predicted mortality drop substantially, even in the countries that aren't "social distancing" like Sweden and Brazil.
Yes, I've heard failure described as having empty beds, and being too ready by a bunch of stupid people.
Quote: rxwineYes, I've heard failure described as having empty beds, and being too ready by a bunch of stupid people.
Having extra beds isn't a failure. Again, like I said, in hindsight we over reacted because he had no choice. We over reacted because we had to assume the worst! We had to assume that this was China's Chernobyl!
Let's not over-react.
Move on, move on, nothing to see here!"
Quote: darkoz"17,000 people dead from Covid-19 in one month in the USA.
Let's not over-react.
Move on, move on, nothing to see here!"
That's about what we've had with the seasonal flu in one month. The flu season 2020 is as active as ever. ... and as many as 63,000 deaths from flu.
https://www.rochesterregional.org/news/2020/01/flu-season-2020
By the way, that's about how many people we are predicting will die from the Chinese Coronavirus.
Quote: KeyserThat's about what we've had with the seasonal flu in one month. The flu season 2020 is as active as ever. ... and as many as 63,000 deaths from flu.
https://www.rochesterregional.org/news/2020/01/flu-season-2020
Thank God we overreacted then.
Without social distance we would have had ten times the deaths from flu
Quote: darkozThank God we overreacted then.
Without social distance we would have had ten times the deaths from flu
Would we? Maybe not. I suspect the numbers might be slightly higher.
It's going to be very interesting to see the stats coming out of Sweden and Brazil over the next month.
Quote: rxwineWe didn't overreact because we failed to manage this early on. We underreacted.
How, exactly?
Other than limiting China Travel sooner, what exactly would you have suggested we do?
We overreacted to bad models.
Quote: AZDuffmanHow, exactly?
Other than limiting China Travel sooner, what exactly would you have suggested we do?
We overreacted to bad models.
We would have had test kits ready early. The stockpile should have been evaluated as well and the federal government should have had the states report their needs, and manufacturing should have been initiated earlier based on a shortfall. It's up to the federal government to lead in a national emergency, even if the states have their own responsibilities.
Quote: KeyserQuote: beachbumbabsQuote: KeyserI suspect Hydroxychloroquine +Zinc is making a significant dent in number of deaths here in the US.
On Tuesday, the IHME estimated about 82,000 people will die from Chinese virus by August. On Wednesday, that estimate was lowered to 60,415.
I suspect you're confusing wishful thinking with science. It could be a valid therapy, it could change nothing, its efficacy could depend on multiple unidentified factors in each patient.
I also don't like you interjecting the politically aimed dog whistle of "Chinese" virus into this conversation. Warning to keep to facts and not slurs.
Beachbumbas,
Slurs???
If we were to discuss Lyme disease, is that politically incorrect, since that's Old Lyme Connecticut?
How about the Norovirus? Norwalk Ohio
MERS Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
Also known as “camel flu,” MERS was first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and all cases are linked to those who traveled to the Middle Eastern peninsula.
Zika Fever?
First discovered in 1947 and named after the Zika Forest in Uganda.
Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever?
Named after the mountain range spreading across western North America first recognized first in 1896 in Idaho.
Ebola? It's a virus that causes a hemorrhagic fever. It's named after a river in the Democratic Republic of Congo
How about the West Nile?
The Spanish Flu?
Legionnaire’s Disease?
German Measles?
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/13/17-diseases-named-after-places-or-people/
I'm not introducing politics or political correctness into the conversation. However you are and are clearly being influenced by the communist party of China if you think otherwise. There's a very long long history of naming disease based on where they originate. If you don't it like then perhaps you need to start emailing scientists and book publishers and inform them that you're feeling offended and that they need to change the names right away!
Pretentiousness and smug is a disease as well. Try not to get infected. ;)
Slurs.
Widely reported as such, deliberate and perjorative. Discussed at length and argued about vociferously by the briefing team. Continued despite diplomatic protests.
Slurs.
Speaking of perjoratives, you can quit trolling me any time. Soon would be good.
Quote: KeyserQuote: rxwineQuote: Keyser[
I'm not introducing politics or political correctness into the conversation.
Bullshit. The official name is not Chinese Virus. Just like H1N1 is not the Mexican flu.
The location where the virus originated and it's use in describing the disease should not be offensive to anyone. Claiming otherwise is just communism manipulating gullible people via social influencing. Gullible people often want to be viewed as being trendy and "in the know". Correcting other people that aren't perceived as being as trendy is just being pretentious and smug. Don't fall for it. Ignore twitter, and ignore the social media trends. They aren't real.
The virus originated in Wuhan China.
Yeah. Couldn't stand it, huh. 7 days.
Political post, plus personal insult.
Quote: beachbumbabsQuote: KeyserQuote: rxwineQuote: Keyser[
I'm not introducing politics or political correctness into the conversation.
Bullshit. The official name is not Chinese Virus. Just like H1N1 is not the Mexican flu.
The location where the virus originated and it's use in describing the disease should not be offensive to anyone. Claiming otherwise is just communism manipulating gullible people via social influencing. Gullible people often want to be viewed as being trendy and "in the know". Correcting other people that aren't perceived as being as trendy is just being pretentious and smug. Don't fall for it. Ignore twitter, and ignore the social media trends. They aren't real.
The virus originated in Wuhan China.
Yeah. Couldn't stand it, huh. 7 days.
Political post, plus personal insult.
What's that song that comes to mind?
Oh, yeah
Celebration time, come on, Doo Doo Doo Doo doodoo
