Coronavirus math
Quote: darkozI'm sure that's true.
But you are not seeing the trees for the forest.
We are so overcrowded that finding a place to live here is nearly impossible. When people fail to find places to reside they move elsewhere.
We have 9 million people inside an area the size of Las Vegas. If even 500,000 people move away we are still too overcrowded.
The ridiculous idea that NYC is soon to be a ghost town is well just plain ridiculous
But that has been the population in NYC for decades, That has been the situation for decades. I will concede that there are uber-wealthy who have condos or co-ops there that they use just a week or two a year. But the rest has been the same.
It will not be a "ghost town" but the most productive are bugging out. There will be a huge tax drain. Those that stay will be those more likely to be on assistance and those too old to bother with moving. As crime keeps going up this will keep feeding on itself. By 2025 NYC will be begging the people it taxed out and drove out to come back. The criminal population will still love the place.
Quote: lilredroosterthe next sale Macy's may have may be a going out of business - everything must go - sale
they're close to bankruptcy and earlier this year announced plans to close more than 100 stores
I don't know if Covid will or will not be the final straw
there is some talk that they might benefit from the even bigger problems of Nordstrom and Lord and Taylor
I sort of see Macy's retrenching to having just one big store in the bigger metro areas. Kind of back to the 1950s except stores will not be "downtown" but in the few surviving malls. There will still be a market for the concept, but not near what it was. I still prefer to go there for dress clothes, but I need so few dress clothes I rarely buy them. I cannot be the only one like that.
Quote: AZDuffmanBut that has been the population in NYC for decades, That has been the situation for decades. I will concede that there are uber-wealthy who have condos or co-ops there that they use just a week or two a year. But the rest has been the same.
It will not be a "ghost town" but the most productive are bugging out. There will be a huge tax drain. Those that stay will be those more likely to be on assistance and those too old to bother with moving. As crime keeps going up this will keep feeding on itself. By 2025 NYC will be begging the people it taxed out and drove out to come back. The criminal population will still love the place.
Well, back in the seventies NYC did go bankrupt so who knows. This Pandemic is going to be difficult to climb back from.
My personal observation having lived here through the seventies crime wave is that we are nowhere near that level.
It's possible we get back to that level since we got there before but I find people get most of there biased info from Hollywood films.
Just like I imagine people in your neck of the woods marry their sisters, shovel pig poop and drive a buggy 100 miles for the nearest shopping, city outsiders imagine NYC is where everyone is mugged straight off the bus, taxi drivers are incessantly rude and drive like madmen, and crazies constantly shout in the middle of the street.
(Well, probably the crazies shouting is something you still see on the regular lol)
The town motto is -Bisbee, we are here because we are not all there.
NYC survived the crack epidemic. It will survive this pandemic.
Quote: darkozWell, back in the seventies NYC did go bankrupt so who knows. This Pandemic is going to be difficult to climb back from.
My personal observation having lived here through the seventies crime wave is that we are nowhere near that level.
It's possible we get back to that level since we got there before but I find people get most of there biased info from Hollywood films.
Just like I imagine people in your neck of the woods marry their sisters, shovel pig poop and drive a buggy 100 miles for the nearest shopping, city outsiders imagine NYC is where everyone is mugged straight off the bus, taxi drivers are incessantly rude and drive like madmen, and crazies constantly shout in the middle of the street.
(Well, probably the crazies shouting is something you still see on the regular lol)
Hollywood of course made good money off playing it up. But NYC was unlivable. Remember when people put "NO RADIO" in their car windows so the glass would not get smashed? How about the squeege guys? Then there was the scourge of OC with truck hijackings, extortion, and the cops were on their payroll. Times Square was a porn district. The Bernie Goetz case showed how bad the subways were. The Central Park Jogger showed how bad the park was. Hopefully, people in NYC liked those days because they are on the way back to them. All that work Rudy did down the drain.
Quote: AZDuffmanHollywood of course made good money off playing it up. But NYC was unlivable. Remember when people put "NO RADIO" in their car windows so the glass would not get smashed? How about the squeege guys? Then there was the scourge of OC with truck hijackings, extortion, and the cops were on their payroll. Times Square was a porn district. The Bernie Goetz case showed how bad the subways were. The Central Park Jogger showed how bad the park was. Hopefully, people in NYC liked those days because they are on the way back to them. All that work Rudy did down the drain.
Times Square is gonna be a porn district again?
Hallelujah!
What's not to love about NYC porn?
Quote: darkozTimes Square is gonna be a porn district again?
Hallelujah!
What's not to love about NYC porn?
If you like hanging around porn shops and hookers I guess that would be a good thing.
Quote: AZDuffmanIf you like hanging around porn shops and hookers I guess that would be a good thing.
Yep!
If I want a good clean family place I go to Disney world
Quote: darkozYep!
If I want a good clean family place I go to Disney world
It is not a binary choice. I don't want Disney or the porn district.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt is not a binary choice. I don't want Disney or the porn district.
Perhaps they don't want you either.
Quote: billryanPerhaps they don't want you either.
Then we are both happy.
I live upstate. There are many areas of abject poverty that are sinkholes for tax dollars. Few super wealthy who pay the bulk of State taxes. NYC subsidizes upstate, by a large margin. But if you ask most upstaters, they think the opposite, because it makes them feel they can be angry at the greedy NY City dwellers.Quote: UP84Got that one wrong. The flow of funds is from NYC to upstate, buy a huge amount.
No it isn't.
Quote: SOOPOOI live upstate. There are many areas of abject poverty that are sinkholes for tax dollars. Few super wealthy who pay the bulk of State taxes. NYC subsidizes upstate, by a large margin. But if you ask most upstaters, they think the opposite, because it makes them feel they can be angry at the greedy NY City dwellers.
That sounds like a very rational and educated opinion.
Quote: SOOPOOI live upstate. There are many areas of abject poverty that are sinkholes for tax dollars. Few super wealthy who pay the bulk of State taxes. NYC subsidizes upstate, by a large margin. But if you ask most upstaters, they think the opposite, because it makes them feel they can be angry at the greedy NY City dwellers.
When I went to college in Rochester, most of my housemates were from upstate, and they would talk about the welfare queens and how much NYC was draining from the upstate economy.
It was funny. The sons of dairy farmers blamed people in NYC for drinking too much pop, the beef farmers blamed New York Ricans for eating too much chicken and pork, the son of the owner of a car dealership blamed NYC for buying small foreign cars.
It must be nice to be able to go through life with someone else picking up a significant portion of your tab while blaming them for your troubles.
Examples:
Canada --> USA
USA---> Mexico
Mexico ---> Central America
Norther Florida ---> Southern Florida
Georgia ---> Florida
North Carolina---> Georgia
Tennessee--> Alabama
Virginia, Kentucky ---> Tennessee
Ohio ---> Kentucky
Northern California ---> Southern California
Oregon ---> California
Pennsylvania ---> West Virginia
Russia ---> China
Korea ---> Japan
Scotland ---> England
The most blatant reversal of this general rule I can think of is probably South Korea ---> North Korea.
Quote: gordonm888People always look down on people who live South of them.
Examples:
Canada --> USA
USA---> Mexico
Mexico ---> Central America
Norther Florida ---> Southern Florida
Georgia ---> Florida
North Carolina---> Georgia
Tennessee--> Alabama
Virginia, Kentucky ---> Tennessee
Ohio ---> Kentucky
Northern California ---> Southern California
Oregon ---> California
Pennsylvania ---> West Virginia
Russia ---> China
Korea ---> Japan
Scotland ---> England
The most blatant reversal of this general rule I can think of is probably South Korea ---> North Korea.
That's an interesting observation.
I wonder what the situation is with New Zealand and Australia. Is the N/S thing reversed? Perhaps might be some type of natural instinct from gravitational pull towards the equator?
There was an episode of The West Wing where people from North Dakota wanted to change the name.
They claimed South Dakota got twenty times the tourism of North Dakota and said it was because South sounded more attractive.
A West Wing staffer mentioned that Mount Rushmore might have something to do with it, and pretty much dismissed the whole thing.
Quote: rxwineNorth Pole, South Pole.
Is there an East Pole? West Pole?
This article has a lot of data about all aspects of Las Vegas' economy. However, when you add it all up, the coronavirus math looks pretty dismal. Until the coronavirus has a trusted vaccine, Las Vegas can expect little relief.
Currently, Nevada continues to struggle to control its high coronavirus positivity rate, as is also the case with numerous other states. (You can check Johns Hopkins University data to see current state positivity data.) Many of Nevada's potential out-of-state visitors share Nevada's coronavirus problems.
IMHO, Las Vegas recovers only to the degree to which America controls coronavirus. Current data suggest the coronavirus is holding its own. Current news reports often suggest otherwise.
Quote: gordonm888Well, the federal Coronavirus task force (I think it was Dr. Fauci) announced at the press conference last night a current projection of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from covid-19. They also did admit that the modelers say that we would have to be "very lucky" for the number to be low as 100,000. A number of 240,000 deaths was their worst case in the set of modeling runs that they were relying on.
They (the President) also said that the number of deaths was roughly projected at 2.2 million without social distancing.
They also said that the projections could change based on unexpected events - "if more sites flare up then expected" was a specific example that they mentioned. Michigan has flared in the last several days and they seemed to indicate that that was unexpected.
Finally, they said that the only way to get the number under 100,000 deaths would be "mitigation" -which means, I guess, breakthroughs in treatments or possibly in vaccines.
So, now the armchair analysts amongst us have a benchmark projection to denounce or support.
Just passed 200,000 US deaths the other day and approaching 7 million cases in a day or two. Worldwide we're approaching 32 million cases and 1 million deaths, with 22 million recovered. So that's 9-10 million who are still sick, or near 30%. Not sure if deaths count as cases anymore.
Mitigation means wear masks, social distancing, avoid crowds, sanitize surfaces, wash your hands, and don't cough on a crowded bus... It doesn't mean what 40% of this country is actually doing.
Quote:Some of the links in this article may be temporarily unavailable due to shortages from the COVID-19 outbreak.
Links are going missing because of Covid! Or maybe missing links are being created! I’m not sure which is worse.
Quote: darkozWell, back in the seventies NYC did go bankrupt so who knows. This Pandemic is going to be difficult to climb back from.
the story gives a picture of how bleak the situation is now for NYC
the leisure and hospitality sector has lost 𝟒𝟒% of its jobs
IMO NYC will come back but it will take time - maybe a lot of time
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/nyregion/nyc-budget-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX0orZaXf_k
'Another word for mass murder': Doctor buries Trump for backing 'herd immunity' plan - Oct 14, 2020 CNN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gD22WPrCLYQ&feature=emb_logo
2 to 6 million expected to die from COVID-19 in the USA every year with Trump in charge.
Quote: ChumpChangeTrump fan regrets not taking COVID seriously: 'I feel like a drunk driver that killed his family' - Oct 13, 2020 CNN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX0orZaXf_k
'Another word for mass murder': Doctor buries Trump for backing 'herd immunity' plan - Oct 14, 2020 CNN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gD22WPrCLYQ&feature=emb_logo
2 to 6 million expected to die from COVID-19 in the USA every year with Trump in charge.
Take the politics to another forum
Anyway, Obamacare looks like it's going out the window next month because of what's on TV right now with the confirmation hearings for the SCOTUS. There's even talk the election ballots will be thrown out, or the electoral college will be directed by state legislatures to vote for Trump despite the popular vote, and Pelosi says she needs to flip a handful of red seats in case the House has to choose the president because of all the wheels falling off this election season.
I submit it's not politics, it's a genocide.
Quote: ChumpChangeTrump fan regrets not taking COVID seriously: 'I feel like a drunk driver that killed his family' - Oct 13, 2020 CNN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX0orZaXf_k
'Another word for mass murder': Doctor buries Trump for backing 'herd immunity' plan - Oct 14, 2020 CNN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gD22WPrCLYQ&feature=emb_logo
2 to 6 million expected to die from COVID-19 in the USA every year with Trump in charge.
Political statements are not allowed here on WoV.
The virus deaths are undercounted
Looking at recent years, all deaths in this country
And looking at Deaths this year in this country
Deaths have jumped higher in this country, more then the documented virus deaths
meaning
Virus deaths in this country are under counted
What is pretty clear is that people in Arizona are dying at an unprecedented rate and nobody seems to have a plan to stop it.
Quote: billryanArizona has officially recorded about 5200 deaths from Covid, but deaths in the state are almost 20,000 more than would be expected in a normal year. One side is saying this shows a severe undercount in Covid deaths while the other side argues that those deaths are the result of the lockdown.
What is pretty clear is that people in Arizona are dying at an unprecedented rate and nobody seems to have a plan to stop it.
To say that any uncounted increase is because of the virus is a very lazy thing to say.
Sorry to say but you cannot magically stop people from dying. The American public needs to come to grips with that fact.
Quote: AZDuffmanTo say that any uncounted increase is because of the virus is a very lazy thing to say.
Sorry to say but you cannot magically stop people from dying. The American public needs to come to grips with that fact.
How would you explain the unaccounted for 15,000 deaths?
Quote: billryanHow would you explain the unaccounted for 15,000 deaths?
You would have to check death certs one by one and see if patterns emerge. Before that you have to see if it is even outside standard deviation. It might just be an aging population checking out naturally,
Quote: ChumpChangeThis virus is a cancer on our society.
No doubt. Even ignoring the health effects the almost uniform regardless of source lazy clickbait manipulative coverage of it has led to an incredibly hostile environment. Only four months until more “articles” subsisting of only a clickbait headline, pictures of beaches and tweets.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou would have to check death certs one by one and see if patterns emerge. Before that you have to see if it is even outside standard deviation. It might just be an aging population checking out naturally,
The pattern emerged.
It's called Covid-19!
Quote: darkozThe pattern emerged.
It's called Covid-19!
We have already seen that virus deaths are being over counted. 96+% of deaths attributed to it had multiple other underlying causes. It is not "the pattern."
We may be seeing more deaths because of issues related to the lockdowns. Suicides, ODs. etc. But that is much harder to count.
Quote: AZDuffmanWe have already seen that virus deaths are being over counted. 96+% of deaths attributed to it had multiple other underlying causes. It is not "the pattern."
We may be seeing more deaths because of issues related to the lockdowns. Suicides, ODs. etc. But that is much harder to count.
Keep fantasizing.
There weren't 20,000 additional suicides.
There is a pandemic.
It's like after people drowned on the Titanic trying to attribute the deaths to suicides. "Look at all the people who jumped to their deaths from the mast of the Titanic. You can't count those as deaths related to the sinking ship"
LOL!
Quote: billryanHow would you explain the unaccounted for 15,000 deaths?
Remember that America averaged about 200,000 deaths per month in 2019 and recent years. So, for a 7-8 month period, the 15,000 detah figure represents about a 1% increase.
The countermeasures against the pandemic are believed to have increased death rates in these areas:
suicides
drug overdoses
violence
cancer/other serious diseases (due to patients shunning hospitals resulting in delays/lapses in diagnoses and treatments)
However, the countermeasures are also believed to have reduced death rates in traffic accidents and light aircraft accidents. So its complicated.
Of course we should look at the data for the excess deaths. There are a ton of lessons we can learn for science and politics from the various causes of the excess deaths in 2020. Of course COVID will be a huge amount of the excess deaths, but that conclusion is not the end of the investigation.Quote: darkozKeep fantasizing.
There weren't 20,000 additional suicides.
There is a pandemic.
It's like after people drowned on the Titanic trying to attribute the deaths to suicides. "Look at all the people who jumped to their deaths from the mast of the Titanic. You can't count those as deaths related to the sinking ship"
LOL!
Quote: gordonm888Remember that America averaged about 200,000 deaths per month in 2019 and recent years. So, for a 7-8 month period, the 15,000 detah figure represents about a 1% increase.
The countermeasures against the pandemic are believed to have increased death rates in these areas:
suicides
drug overdoses
violence
cancer/other serious diseases (due to patients shunning hospitals resulting in delays/lapses in diagnoses and treatments)
However, the countermeasures are also believed to have reduced death rates in traffic accidents and light aircraft accidents. So its complicated.
The extra deaths are in Arizona, not all of America. Science and math have given us a pretty good idea of how many deaths to expect in a certain year. these are over and above that number.
Arizona has seen a 20% increase in deaths in the first seven months. Not 1%, nor 5%, but a full 20% increase. Obviously, not all of them are from Covid cases but a twenty percent increase certainly is noteworthy and worth investigating. Just think of what this is doing to insurance companies.
Does it matter if it is a one percent increase or a five percent increase. In either case, there are 15,000 extra dead people.
Quote: unJonOf course we should look at the data for the excess deaths. There are a ton of lessons we can learn for science and politics from the various causes of the excess deaths in 2020. Of course COVID will be a huge amount of the excess deaths, but that conclusion is not the end of the investigation.
AZ is trying to make a falacious argument against shutting down
Fact is those communities that didn't or haven't shutdown or haven't enforced mask wearing have had higher death tolls.
Usually those higher infection and death toll rates have led to lockdowns.
So in order to counter AZ does a misinformation campaign.
Claims only people with underlying conditions really died (this assumes covid can't be held responsible if you already were I'll. Falacious)
He knows NYS went from 1000 deaths per day to 1 per day due to the very lockdowns and masks he deplores so he claims the death toll was only high because of people housed in nursing homes with covid, an already debunked claim)
He claims lockdowns caused mass suicides even though he hasn't shown one iota of proof. No way lockdown suicides amounted to more than 200,000 dead from Covid-19.
Technically, even if lockdowns (necessary as shown by the massive death toll in states that didn't lockdown in time) caused other deaths the irony is those too would be attributed to Covid-19 because (no covid, no lockdowns, hence covid is responsible tangentially for those deaths as well.)
Trying to figure out the actual cause of death for those 15,000 and the multiples of that across the US and the world of course matters. I’m drawing a blank on how someone even argues the other side.Quote: billryanThe extra deaths are in Arizona, not all of America. Science and math have given us a pretty good idea of how many deaths to expect in a certain year. these are over and above that number. As I understand it, Arizona is 20,000 deaths ahead of where we were projected to be. About 5,000 of them are officially tied to Covid. The question is what caused the other 15,000?
Does it matter if it is a one percent increase or a five percent increase. In either case, there are 15,000 extra dead people.
That you’re attacking a facetious argument is no justification for making a facetious argument yourself.Quote: darkozAZ is trying to make a falacious argument against shutting down
Fact is those communities that didn't or haven't shutdown or haven't enforced mask wearing have had higher death tolls.
Usually those higher infection and death toll rates have led to lockdowns.
So in order to counter AZ does a misinformation campaign.
Claims only people with underlying conditions really died (this assumes covid can't be held responsible if you already were I'll. Falacious)
He knows NYS went from 1000 deaths per day to 1 per day due to the very lockdowns and masks he deplores so he claims the death toll was only high because of people housed in nursing homes with covid, an already debunked claim)
He claims lockdowns caused mass suicides even though he hasn't shown one iota of proof. No way lockdown suicides amounted to more than 200,000 dead from Covid-19.
Technically, even if lockdowns (necessary as shown by the massive death toll in states that didn't lockdown in time) caused other deaths the irony is those too would be attributed to Covid-19 because (no covid, no lockdowns, hence covid is responsible tangentially for those deaths as well.)
ETA: Also if people haven’t seen the new WHO public statements on lockdowns, it’s worth a read. Shows the nuances and complexities.
Quote: darkozKeep fantasizing.
There weren't 20,000 additional suicides.
There is a pandemic.
It's like after people drowned on the Titanic trying to attribute the deaths to suicides. "Look at all the people who jumped to their deaths from the mast of the Titanic. You can't count those as deaths related to the sinking ship"
LOL!
I guess you do not know what life is like on the street. Locked down, can't work. Suicides. ODs. They happen but do not get counted.
As to a pandemic. I still find it funny how few people seem to know someone who died. When something big like this happens almost everyone knows someone personally. This time not so much.
Aren't you safe if you wear a mask?
Quote: AZDuffman
Aren't you safe if you wear a mask?
No. I'm safe when YOU wear a mask and I wash my hands often and practice social distancing. And vice versa.
