Coronavirus math
Quote: AZDuffmanI guess you do not know what life is like on the street. Locked down, can't work. Suicides. ODs. They happen but do not get counted.
As to a pandemic. I still find it funny how few people seem to know someone who died. When something big like this happens almost everyone knows someone personally. This time not so much.
Aren't you safe if you wear a mask?
Yeah, I never lived on the street lol.
And I know quite a few people who had it and a few who died.
Quote: darkozYeah, I never lived on the street lol.
And I know quite a few people who had it and a few who died.
Amazingly, I still don't know anyone that has had it.
Quote: mcallister3200There’s been much more correlation to population density and time population spends outside than anything lockdown vs not lockdown related. South Dakota and Colorado would be examples. South Dakota never locked down and hasn’t had it that bad comparatively at any point, Colorado lifted most of their restrictions earlier than others but their population spends more time outside and is in better physical shape than anywhere in the US. The interpretation of any data relating to the pandemic is a fascinating example of confirmation bias depending on who’s looking at it.
On the flip side
I believe many areas have not seen their peak number of cases and its coming
I'm travelling in my RV around the country
Amarillo was peaking last week while I was in town
I cooked in my RV all week and was happy to get out of town with my health
Quote: DRichAmazingly, I still don't know anyone that has had it.
Do you know anyone who died on September 11th? How about someone who died in Afganistan or Iraq?
I guess those are no big deals either. A similar amount of Americans die each week from Covid, on a good week.
Quote: rawtuffNo. I'm safe when YOU wear a mask and I wash my hands often and practice social distancing. And vice versa.
As I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask?
Quote: billryanDo you know anyone who died on September 11th? How about someone who died in Afganistan or Iraq?
I guess those are no big deals either.
Only 3,000 or so on 9/11 all concentrated in 2 very small areas so not likely most people would know someone.
Quote: darkozYeah, I never lived on the street lol.
And I know quite a few people who had it and a few who died.
Quite a few?
Reality is 98% of the USA has not had it. Survival is >99% when you do get it. As a pandemic it is pretty weak in that regard. Not worth the cost we have paid to close everything.
Quote: AZDuffmanAs I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask?
You may or may not have it, you don't know neither do I. But what we do know is wearing a simple fabric mask can reduce the droplets spreading of your mouth in which the virus lives and spreads to other hosts by significant amount up to 90% depending on the droplet size .
And what we do know is the super spreaders were one of those "I don't have it, I don't care, it's just the flu and I'm not wearing a mask" type.
Quote: billryanDo you know anyone who died on September 11th? How about someone who died in Afganistan or Iraq?
I guess those are no big deals either. A similar amount of Americans die each week from Covid, on a good week.
No, I don't know anyone that died in any of those scenarios.
I didn't say it wasn't a big deal. I know it is to others and I respect that. If 50% of the U.S. population died it wouldn't bother me much but I know others would be devastated.
Quote: rawtuffYou may or may not have it, you don't know neither do I. But what we do know is wearing a simple fabric mask can reduce the droplets spreading of your mouth in which the virus lives and spreads to other hosts by significant amount up to 90% depending on the droplet size .
And what we do know is the super spreaders were one of those "I don't have it, I don't care, it's just the flu and I'm not wearing a mask" type.
They reduce just the largest droplets, the kind that come if you are sneezing bad or coughing bad. The rest not much effect.
Keep wearing it if it makes you feel better though. I however am not buying it and not worrying about maskless people and places.
Quote: AZDuffmanThey reduce just the largest droplets, the kind that come if you are sneezing bad or coughing bad. The rest not much effect.
Wrong. A significant amount of the droplets that one spreads in the air while simply talking are large enough to be caught in a face mask
Quote: AZDuffmanAs I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask?
Come on AZ! You are a man of math, right? Like you, I do not think I have it. But there is NO WAY I can say for SURE that I don’t have it. (Guess).. There is a 1/20,000 chance I have it. People get it and can remain asymptomatic. So in my local area of 1,000,000 people, there may be 50 or so asymptomatic people who ARE CONTAGIOUS.
Your logic on this issue is frankly missing.
What you could have said is.... IF I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask.
Quote: SOOPOOCome on AZ! You are a man of math, right? Like you, I do not think I have it. But there is NO WAY I can say for SURE that I don’t have it. (Guess).. There is a 1/20,000 chance I have it. People get it and can remain asymptomatic. So in my local area of 1,000,000 people, there may be 50 or so asymptomatic people who ARE CONTAGIOUS.
Your logic on this issue is frankly missing.
What you could have said is.... IF I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask.
As a man of math 50 out of 1 million is not bad. My area is bigger than yours so here is is about 150.
But if it makes you happy I will say "if I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask" since a company in your town might after a few years finally be ready to make me some cash as they got their patent today!
Quote: SOOPOOCome on AZ! You are a man of math, right? Like you, I do not think I have it. But there is NO WAY I can say for SURE that I don’t have it. (Guess).. There is a 1/20,000 chance I have it. People get it and can remain asymptomatic. So in my local area of 1,000,000 people, there may be 50 or so asymptomatic people who ARE CONTAGIOUS.
Your logic on this issue is frankly missing.
What you could have said is.... IF I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask.
I'm pretty sure the rate of positive tests in upstate NY is close to one percent, which means in the city of Buffalo there are a lot more than 50 people. 795 people have tested positive in Erie County since September 29th.
If the positive rate is one percent, and you attend a rally of 12,000 people, the chances of you encountering someone with the virus go up quite a bit. Then you can spread it for two weeks without ever knowing you'd been infected in the first place.
Quote: billryanI'm pretty sure the rate of positive tests in upstate NY is close to one percent, which means in the city of Buffalo there are a lot more than 50 people. 795 people have tested positive in Erie County since September 29th.
If the positive rate is one percent, and you attend a rally of 12,000 people, the chances of you encountering someone with the virus go up quite a bit. Then you can spread it for two weeks without ever knowing you'd been infected in the first place.
And in 4 weeks be recovered.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnd in 4 weeks be recovered.
Sounds like a proponent of torture.
In raspy evil voice:
"I can rip all your fingernails out with this pair of pliers but do not be concerned. In four weeks you will recover"
Quote: darkozSounds like a proponent of torture.
In raspy evil voice:
"I can rip all your fingernails out with this pair of pliers but do not be concerned. In four weeks you will recover"
Nope. Just one who sees the risks vs. hiding at home and does what an AP would do, go with the odds in your favor
Quote: AZDuffmanNope. Just one who sees the risks vs. hiding at home and does what an AP would do, go with the odds in your favor
No, you are doing exactly the opposite of what an AP does.
An AP looks at the odds and picks the best method to achieve a successful return.
In this case, (gambling with your health) an AP would look at the odds, realize the best odds of remaining healthy is to protect oneself by wearing a mask.
Those who take such risks as you are would be considered a ploppie of the highest magnitude
Quote: darkozNo, you are doing exactly the opposite of what an AP does.
An AP looks at the odds and picks the best method to achieve a successful return.
In this case, (gambling with your health) an AP would look at the odds, realize the best odds of remaining healthy is to protect oneself by wearing a mask.
Those who take such risks as you are would be considered a ploppie of the highest magnitude
It would depend if your objective is life, or quality of life. It is up to each person to decide on their own.
Quote: DRichIt would depend if your objective is life, or quality of life. It is up to each person to decide on their own.
If wearing a mask ruins your quality of life, I have to ask how much quality you had to begin with.
Quote: AZDuffmanAs I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask?
October 12, 2020 By Jordan Davidson
A Centers for Disease Control report released in September shows that masks and face coverings are not effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19, even for those people who consistently wear them.
A study conducted in the United States in July found that when they compared 154 “case-patients,” who tested positive for COVID-19, to a control group of 160 participants from the same health care facility who were symptomatic but tested negative, over 70 percent of the case-patients were contaminated with the virus and fell ill despite “always” wearing a mask.
“In the 14 days before illness onset, 71% of case-patients and 74% of control participants reported always using cloth face coverings or other mask types when in public,” the report stated.
Quote: billryanIf wearing a mask ruins your quality of life, I have to ask how much quality you had to begin with.
It can definitely lessen ones quality of life. People put way too much importance on individual lives.
I wear a mask when I have to because it improves my quality of life. If I don't wear a mask I can't go to the grocery store which is about the only joy I have now that I am unemployed. I enjoy going to the grocery store about three times a week.
Quote: SanchoPanza
“In the 14 days before illness onset, 71% of case-patients and 74% of control participants reported always using cloth face coverings or other mask types when in public,” the report stated.
Having observed the way some people wear masks, I find that percentage suspect. Wearing a condom half on, is not wearing a condom either. Worse yet, people walking through the store with a mask on, but it's under their chin.
Sui Huang
March 26, 2020 12 min read
https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71
Quote: SanchoPanzaOctober 12, 2020 By Jordan Davidson
A Centers for Disease Control report released in September shows that masks and face coverings are not effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19, even for those people who consistently wear them.
A study conducted in the United States in July found that when they compared 154 “case-patients,” who tested positive for COVID-19, to a control group of 160 participants from the same health care facility who were symptomatic but tested negative, over 70 percent of the case-patients were contaminated with the virus and fell ill despite “always” wearing a mask.
“In the 14 days before illness onset, 71% of case-patients and 74% of control participants reported always using cloth face coverings or other mask types when in public,” the report stated.
More misinformation!
The report cited says that masks appear not to work due to them being removed in dining and drinking establishments.
It actually concludes that dining and drinking establishments should be required to do more effective social distancing procedures.
LMAO.
Quote: billryanI'm pretty sure the rate of positive tests in upstate NY is close to one percent, which means in the city of Buffalo there are a lot more than 50 people. 795 people have tested positive in Erie County since September 29th.
If the positive rate is one percent, and you attend a rally of 12,000 people, the chances of you encountering someone with the virus go up quite a bit. Then you can spread it for two weeks without ever knowing you'd been infected in the first place.
You are ignoring a bias - the people that get tests are not random population - they tend to be people who either have symptoms or are concerned they may have been exposed. Given that those tests are 1% positive, it does not imply that 1% of the population at large is infected.
Indeed, one can make an argument that a large fraction of the people who have symptoms or are concerned about exposure do get tested.
Even if you don't think masks work you should be encouraging people to wear them and be grateful others believe they do work. If not for that they may have not opened up as much as they have and the lock down would have lasted longer.Quote: AZDuffmanAs a man of math 50 out of 1 million is not bad. My area is bigger than yours so here is is about 150.
But if it makes you happy I will say "if I do not have it what does it matter if I wear a mask" since a company in your town might after a few years finally be ready to make me some cash as they got their patent today!
Quote: AxelWolfEven if you don't think masks work you should be encouraging people to wear them and be grateful others believe they do work. If not for that they may have not opened up as much as they have and the lock down would have lasted longer.
Why would someone encourage something that they think doesn't work?
Quote: gordonm888You are ignoring a bias - the people that get tests are not random population - they tend to be people who either have symptoms or are concerned they may have been exposed. Given that those tests are 1% positive, it does not imply that 1% of the population at large is infected.
Indeed, one can make an argument that a large fraction of the people who have symptoms or are concerned about exposure do get tested.
So you are saying more than one percent is probably infected?
We know there are asymptomatic people. And there are those that are only mildly sick so they may not feel compelled to go (and I suppose we also can't rule out a large population of AZ"s who believe they can't have it or it's a scam to begin with)
This means if one percent of the population is showing up positive it's most likely a huge number of positive people aren't getting tested and don't know.
Quote: darkozNo, you are doing exactly the opposite of what an AP does.
An AP looks at the odds and picks the best method to achieve a successful return.
In this case, (gambling with your health) an AP would look at the odds, realize the best odds of remaining healthy is to protect oneself by wearing a mask.
Those who take such risks as you are would be considered a ploppie of the highest magnitude
Lets see. 2% of population infected. 99% survival rate. Now. if I have a bet out with a >99% chance of winning do I bother to hedge?
An AP says "no."
You are saying not to even play the game.
My verdict is the AP does not live his life worrying about the masks.
Quote: darkozSo you are saying more than one percent is probably infected?
We know there are asymptomatic people. And there are those that are only mildly sick so they may not feel compelled to go (and I suppose we also can't rule out a large population of AZ"s who believe they can't have it or it's a scam to begin with)
This means if one percent of the population is showing up positive it's most likely a huge number of positive people aren't getting tested and don't know.
If a huge number of people have it and do not even know they are sick then is it really as bad as they are claiming?
Quote: darkozSo you are saying more than one percent is probably infected?
We know there are asymptomatic people. And there are those that are only mildly sick so they may not feel compelled to go (and I suppose we also can't rule out a large population of AZ"s who believe they can't have it or it's a scam to begin with)
This means if one percent of the population is showing up positive it's most likely a huge number of positive people aren't getting tested and don't know.
No. The bias cuts the other way. People that are being tested are more likely to have the virus than people not being tested. Remember a 1% positivity rate has the denominator of people tested, not people in population.
Quote: AZDuffmanWhy would someone encourage something that they think doesn't work?
OMG AZ!
Axel just explained why.
Because it's in their best interest!
I told you, you think you are like an AP in this matter (you say so) but you aren't.
Example:. Must hit isn't high enough yet.
Noob player tells you he only plays because he knows it's gonna hit if he plays it after max bettor finishes.
You know as an AP that is not how must hits work but this guy is helping you get closer to where the machine needs to be so you encourage him.
Or you (as you imply) don't believe that works so you encourage him not to play?
EDIT: I actually heard that one. Ploppie explained the game was filled with an excess of cash after a max bettor so was due to give it all back!
Quote: darkozOMG AZ!
Axel just explained why.
Because it's in their best interest!
I told you, you think you are like an AP in this matter (you say so) but you aren't.
Example:. Must hit isn't high enough yet.
Noob player tells you he only plays because he knows it's gonna hit if he plays it after max bettor finishes.
You know as an AP that is not how must hits work but this guy is helping you get closer to where the machine needs to be so you encourage him.
Or you (as you imply) don't believe that works so you encourage him not to play?
EDIT: I actually heard that one. Ploppie explained the game was filled with an excess of cash after a max bettor so was due to give it all back!
It is in their "best interest" to do something that I believe does not work.
Sounds like a sales meeting at a Yugo dealership in 1986.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt is in their "best interest" to do something that I believe does not work.
Sounds like a sales meeting at a Yugo dealership in 1986.
NO IT'S IN YOUR BEST INTEREST.
Are you purposefully trying to trigger people on this forum?
You can't be this obtuse
Quote: darkozNO IT'S IN YOUR BEST INTEREST.
Are you purposefully trying to trigger people on this forum?
You can't be this obtuse
Are you just figuring this out now?
Quote: billryanAre you just figuring this out now?
No, actually I had to delete my real answer to keep from being suspended so that's what I came up with lol
I assume you would rather masks than places having to remain closed.Quote: AZDuffmanWhy would someone encourage something that they think doesn't work?
You don't think the proper wearing of masks along with social distancing helps at all?
As far as calculating this from an AP standpoint I'm going to assume the average age of an AP is higher than many other occupations. Also one must factor in other affects it might have, not just live or die.
Some may have a legitimate reason to not wear a mask, but I'm not heard anyone here give a decent one for why they don't wear one.
Quote: rxwine
Some may have a legitimate reason to not wear a mask, but I'm not heard anyone here give a decent one for why they don't wear one.
How about "I hate wearing the silly things!"????
If yours is protecting you no worries.
Quote: rxwineLosing your job because of pandemic related measures is a serious complaint. Being an anti-masker, is the level of a kindergartener type complaint.
Some may have a legitimate reason to not wear a mask, but I'm not heard anyone here give a decent one for why they don't wear one.
Just this week, a man waiting for a rally explained that wearing a mask causes people to overdose on carbon dioxide and evidently many Covid admissions at hospitals are actually carbon dioxide overdoses. The thing is the hospital gets paid more if they say it is covid so they lie about it.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/GDm5nwHNrixUqD9c6
Quote: billryanJust this week, a man waiting for a rally explained that wearing a mask causes people to overdose on carbon dioxide and evidently many Covid admissions at hospitals are actually carbon dioxide overdoses. The thing is the hospital gets paid more if they say it is covid so they lie about it.
Not sure what kind of mask they were using, but I just put 3 masks on, and my pulse oximeter stayed at 97/96% for 5 minutes. Seems pretty safe to me. Are they also wearing plastic bags on their heads?
Quote: billryanJust this week, a man waiting for a rally explained that wearing a mask causes people to overdose on carbon dioxide and evidently many Covid admissions at hospitals are actually carbon dioxide overdoses. The thing is the hospital gets paid more if they say it is covid so they lie about it.
WTF
Carbon dioxide overdose. What a joke
I have asthma yet I still wear a mask
Mask does not bother my asthma at all.
Not one iota
It's simply a filter for particles massively larger then oxygen itself.
Quote: billryanJust this week, a man waiting for a rally explained that wearing a mask causes people to overdose on carbon dioxide and evidently many Covid admissions at hospitals are actually carbon dioxide overdoses. The thing is the hospital gets paid more if they say it is covid so they lie about it.
Damn all those firefighters, surgeons, scuba divers and astronauts dying from their own carbon monoxide.
Such a shame!
Oh, and all the poor kids at Halloween too
Quote: darkozSo you are saying more than one percent is probably infected?
We know there are asymptomatic people. And there are those that are only mildly sick so they may not feel compelled to go (and I suppose we also can't rule out a large population of AZ"s who believe they can't have it or it's a scam to begin with)
This means if one percent of the population is showing up positive it's most likely a huge number of positive people aren't getting tested and don't know.
This is hopeless. The contorting and twisting of statements is as if the conversation is a game to be won.
I was saying that it is probable that far less than 1% of the general population is infected, but I agree there are almost certainly some people who have not been tested who would test positive.
Quote: darkozDamn all those firefighters, surgeons, scuba divers and astronauts dying from their own carbon monoxide.
Such a shame!
Oh, and all the poor kids at Halloween too
Firemen and Scuba Divers have a dedicated, outside air supply.
Quote: rxwineBeing an anti-masker, is the level of a kindergartener type complaint.
Some may have a legitimate reason to not wear a mask, but I'm not heard anyone here give a decent one for why they don't wear one.
First of all, I do wear a mask everywhere it is required to do so without complaint. But here is my 'decent' reason why I don't 9want to0 wear one.... I don't like to! I have worn a mask 5-6 days a week for 35 years due to my job requiring it. I never liked the feel of them, or how it felt to be breathing through one. But it was part of the job so I just wore one. Period. End of story. Same as now. If I need to go somewhere (grocery store, indoor restaurant, doctor's office) where I have to wear one, I do. Period. End of story. Some people don't like doing things that they don't like doing..... like wearing a mask, like driving the speed limit, like not farting loudly in public, like....
So the 'decent' reason for not wearing one.... they don't want to.
Its not even close to being over
Many areas of the country haven't even seen their peak yet
Sadly its coming
There is no stopping it
Case in point
Wisc is seeing their highest totals today.
3700 new cases in one day shattering the previous record
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/10/15/wisconsin-coronavirus-3-747-cases-17-covid-deaths-reported-thursday/3667837001/
