Coronavirus math
Quote: LVJackalWhat I haven't seen mentioned is that no, masks will not provide total protection. Never were intended to. Rather they reduce the spread of an infected person quite a bit. Limiting the number of people they in turn infect. It was later determined, that the uninfected, if wearing a mask, was provided a bit of protection by reducing the viral load they were initially exposed to. Leading many to assume the smaller viral load led to a much less severe case and potentially less need for hospitalization. There is compelling statistical evidence coming out on places that have mandated masks and how effective they were.
Of course.
Even if wearing a mask reduces by "only" 30% the overall contagiousness of the virus throughout the population (I'm randomly quoting one peer reviewed study from this year on that 30%) the overall effect is huge. Those ~30% compound exponentially and reduce a great deal of the strain on the health care system and the economic burden due to sick people. It potentially allows millions of people to not die of covid19 but be saved by a cure/vaccine which comes later on the way.
But no, why should I inconvenience my all important SELF with wearing a mask? F that, I'm doing as I please I'm not a part of a civilized society or anything.
And this is just my way of thinking, I haven't heard anyone suggest this, but to me for a person shedding virus (recovering) which it is my understanding is a process that can last from days to weeks, wearing a mask seems like about the worst thing for the person shedding virus and trying to recover. The mask is going to keep the virus particles right there, You will breath them in again and have to shed them all over again.
I would think the most efficient way to shed virus would be to get outside in the open and do some deep breathing exercises. Maybe physical exercise to get you breathing deeply and exhaling deeply, spitting out virus with each breath. But what do I know. ?? Just thinking out loud.
Hopefully, over the next couple days, I or someone else can link really good data to back this up. Also the 6' distance was assuming the virus was not aerosol - which it has now been admitted it is - the distance helps - much more outdoors.
Imagine we are 6' apart and I exhale cigarette smoke through a mask. The bulk will be pushed in other directions with a lessened amount able to pass through and directly hit you in the face. Over the space of 6' that smoke will dissipate a bit- this we can visualize pretty well. Now instead of smoke, this is viral particles.
My mask will force a bit in other directions, our distance will dissipate an amount, your mask will filter out a portion, your nostrils and body will also filter even more particles. Really wish I had the articles handy.. however, many believe the amount of initial exposure leads to worsening cases, at the very least, a smaller initial exposure will give the body more time to get to work on eliminating the threat before it spreads too far.
We can see this here in Vegas- once the mask mandate went into effect we went from well over 1k cases a day and plummeted to around 400 or so. It was such a dramatic drop I thought we were manipulating our data. Hospital cases dropped as well. Same is true with Arizona. These and many other mandates are currently headlines in scientific areas of news and the focus of a lot of study. I have only read the headlines and not in depth articles.
A good quick source for a lot of information at once with links to articles is a popular site which refers to itself as the front page of the internet. Many sections or sub forums for covid 19; scientific, overall, by location, survivor stories, and areas where volunteers are sought out.
Quote: AxelWolfAnd they caught it from the other 15% who refused to wear masks.
How do you figure?
You are not even adding things up correct.
Quote: kewljIf the science people say that wearing a mask reduces spread, based on data, I accept that. But I gotta say, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Lets say person A and person B are 6 feet away from each other, say in a casino. Person A is shedding virus. So how does person A wearing a mask change anything? Every breath he exhales contains virus and it is still making it's way into the common "air" just a little less directly, meaning person B is still going to breath in that common air through his mask. It is not as though these masks are air tight. ???
And this is just my way of thinking, I haven't heard anyone suggest this, but to me for a person shedding virus (recovering) which it is my understanding is a process that can last from days to weeks, wearing a mask seems like about the worst thing for the person shedding virus and trying to recover. The mask is going to keep the virus particles right there, You will breath them in again and have to shed them all over again.
I would think the most efficient way to shed virus would be to get outside in the open and do some deep breathing exercises. Maybe physical exercise to get you breathing deeply and exhaling deeply, spitting out virus with each breath. But what do I know. ?? Just thinking out loud.
Well first, you are thinking of 'shedding' like a dog sheds hair. The virus is at the intra-cellular level. The 'shedding' is happening inside your body. The physical virus doesn't have to be physically expunged for you to get better. Rather the virus has to be stopped from replicating Inside your cells. As virus laden cells die off, so does the virus (if it can't replicate.
This level is called the viral load and is measurable.
Virus itself needs to be inside cells. They cannot live on their own. For someone to get infected they must physically inhale YOUR SALIVA PARTICLES. Meaning the virus isn't in the air, it's in your saliva.
Six feet apart and your saliva particles (invisible to the naked eye) have fallen to the ground.
Or your saliva has landed on your mask..
Best way to visualize it is the cold air fog you exhale in winter. That foggy breath is ALWAYS being exhaled by you. The low temp is just making it visible. And if you wore a mask in winter, then that saliva fog you exhale is not there, caught by your mask.
As for re-inhaling the virus, it is replicating on the cellular level. Doesn't matter if you inhale your own cells. You cannot reinfect yourself!
Thank you for your contributions to the discussion. I can’t wait until you’ve made enough posts to post links.Quote: olga909If people will not wear masks - we will never stop this disease.
Quote: unJonThank you for your contributions to the discussion. I can’t wait until you’ve made enough posts to post links.
We will soon be learning about his "favorite" casino.
ZCore13
At Ocean AC last weekend, I saw a restaurant hostess take off her mask to shout someone’s name across a crowd waiting to be seated.
I then witnessed a dealer remove her mask so she could sneeze.
SMH....
She also told us they were not giving physical menus out due to COVID and we would have to look it up on our phone. The waiter then came over and gave us menus without us asking.
I am fine with masks since the data seems to show they help, but holy hell all this useless safety theater needs to end.
Quote: AZDuffmanSo what you are saying is most people are not wearing the masks "right" anyhow?
I will go with the conclusion. 85% of people getting it were maskers.
I have to point out that this is completely a misinterpretation of the report. This is flat out completely 100% wrong. It's a lie. Have you read summaries of the report? I mean, my God, this is absolutely wrong.
Quote: AZDuffmanHow do you figure?
You are not even adding things up correct.
God I can't stand this. I will do a separate thread to address this. It so happens I am doing a blog entry on this today, but I'll do it first here. THE STUDY DID NOT SAY "85% OF PEOPLE WHO WEAR MASKS GET IT!" Jesus, dudes, learn to read, or interpret, or process, or something.
Quote: DeMangoSo the general consensus is that we will never get over this till vaccine??
We will never get over this because its political in this country
I have relatives in Taiwan
Its not political there.
The people and the govt are united against the virus
Total cases since the start, 540. Total deaths 7
Quote: redietzGod I can't stand this. I will do a separate thread to address this. It so happens I am doing a blog entry on this today, but I'll do it first here. THE STUDY DID NOT SAY "85% OF PEOPLE WHO WEAR MASKS GET IT!" Jesus, dudes, learn to read, or interpret, or process, or something.
I did not say 85% of people wearing masks get it. I said 85% of people who got it wore masks.
Someone else along the line started mixing the numbers, but not me.
Quote: AZDuffmanI did not say 85% of people wearing masks get it. I said 85% of people who got it wore masks.
Someone else along the line started mixing the numbers, but not me.
Even if that was true, which it absolutely isn't, it is meaningless. Mask help prevent you from spreading the virus. They don't prevent you from catching it. That is where social distancing and washing your hands comes in
Quote: billryanEven if that was true, which it absolutely isn't, it is meaningless. Mask help prevent you from spreading the virus. They don't prevent you from catching it. That is where social distancing and washing your hands comes in
Sorry, but no proof it isn't true. No reason to believe it isn't true. The mask mandates alone mean it is way more likely to be true than not.
Quote: ChumpChangeFlorida's Governor is pursuing a herd immunity genocide upon the citizens and the big city mayor just on TV fears COVID-19 deaths in the county will surpass all other deaths combined.
Genocide? How is assuring that only one race will catch it?
https://www.axios.com/university-michigan-student-coronavirus-shelter-df1bb2b9-039f-475f-adb9-6f5bcfa2d366.html
Quote: ChumpChangeBillionaires are the only race that counts.
Cuts it down to less than 1000 people in the USA. Who’s gonna deal when they get to Wynn?
Quote: ChumpChangeUniversity of Michigan students ordered to shelter-in-place for 2 weeks because of COVID-19
https://www.axios.com/university-michigan-student-coronavirus-shelter-df1bb2b9-039f-475f-adb9-6f5bcfa2d366.html
Sadly, it doesn't include athletes that are still allowed to practice and travel.
Phil Collins Forced Out Of His Home By Ex Wife, Her New Husband, And Security Guards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIpLYlvOv9U
Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin
Quote: terapinedThe below states are having their highest hospitalization rate ever right now due to the virus
Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin
An interesting pattern
States in the Northeast which have higher and more stringent mask and social distancing rules/laws are not on that list.
NYS went from 1000 deaths per day to one per day.
Mask wearing is enforced.
Gee, who would think there is any correlation?
My parents both currently have it and have had it for 2-3 weeks, thankfully neither got too bad of symptoms. Pops was sort of questionable at about that week in stage where can go either way then slowly better now just bad cough and fatigue, mom hasn’t been able to taste or smell anything for a couple weeks but that’s all.
Quote: mcallister3200The hospitalization and infection rates rising in many areas is certainly not good. Silver lining is that death rates across all age groups, races and risk categories has significantly decreased. A recent study across one healthcare system published in a NPR article had death among those hospitalized dropped from 25.6 to 7.6%. There’s probably multiple reasons for it and people will interpret those numbers by whatever bias they’re preconditioned to.
My parents both currently have it and have had it for 2-3 weeks, thankfully neither got too bad of symptoms. Pops was sort of questionable at about that week in stage where can go either way then slowly better now just bad cough and fatigue, mom hasn’t been able to taste or smell anything for a couple weeks but that’s all.
Let's hope for the best.
But be cautioned the death rate is 2-3 weeks behind hospitalization rate and infection rate.
Case in point when NYS infection rate and hospitalized rate was decreasing the death rate was still rising.
It's due to the progression of this disease.
Eventually the death rate caught up with infected rate (as in began to decrease in NYS).
We need about three weeks to assess the death rate based on rising infection rates
Quote: billryanMy nephew tested positive about a month ago. He had very little trouble, having a fever for two days but not much else. He stayed home for ten days and was back at work. One day last week, he was playing full court basketball when he suddenly got very winded. He went home, went to sleep and could barely get out of bed the next day. For the last few days, he has had no appetite and is sleeping 12-15 hours a day. His Doctor hasn't seen anything like this, but evidently it isn't unique. Some people report these conditions for a few days, but others still have them weeks and months later. He tried working from home but his concentration is off. He's been tested twice and is not reinfected.
Billryan, extreme fatigue is a very common symptom and one that last far longer than the other symptoms. I was sick most of the month of April with the traditional symptoms, fever, headache, chest pressure and fatigue. Not really trouble breathing, but it just felt like someone was standing behind me with their arms around me squeezing. Getting a good, full, deep breath was something I had to work at. I was sick for about 8-9 days, felt better for 2-3 days and got sick again for just about a week or slightly more. Then all the symptoms went away, except the fatigue. That actually got worse and lasted through the month of May.
I had days that I would wake up, get online for an hour or two, move to my recliner to watch TV where I would immediately fall asleep....a very strange sleep where I could hear things going on around me, but almost seemed paralyzed. So after sleeping in the recliner for a few hours, I would move back to my bed for an official nap of 3 or 4 hours, get up again, make something to eat, maybe get online for another hour or two and then fall asleep again watching TV before going to bed where I slept for 10-12 hours. All in all, on my worse days I had days that I was awake maybe 4 hours. It was ridiculous. Other days were a little better, but for weeks, I was exhausted doing absolutely nothing and was sleeping or dosing more than I was awake.
This was weeks after I had tested negative and even donated antibodies. I was still fighting this strange exhaustion and fatigue. This is a very weird virus. And doctors cant get a grip on it because it effects different people in different ways.
Quote: kewljThis is a very weird virus. And doctors cant get a grip on it because it effects different people in different ways.
Apparently so. I haven't seen posts calling attention to the (possible) C-virus link to sudden diabetes onset months following recovery from the virus. This long-term threat is troubling: C-virus Diabetes Link??
FWIW, a mid-30's med tech recently commented to me that her C-virus bout left her more sick than any previous time for three weeks before recovery began. She commented that it was the only time she had ever asked her mother to pray for her.
Stay safe, everyone. It only LOOKS safe out there.
The number of hospitalizations linked to COVID-19 has hit an all-time high in the USA
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Taiwan no new cases in over 200 days
Alaska
Missouri
North Dakota
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Quote: MintyI saw an article yesterday claiming that research is now showing masks to be helpful to both the wearer and those around them. This is a new development from previous research saying they only helped those around the wearer. I'd look for it, but my phone is on the brink of death.
I never understood that. Of course it is going to benefit the wearer as it should stop a little bit of it from coming in. My guess is that it helps a very little, maybe 25%.
Quote: DRichI never understood that. Of course it is going to benefit the wearer as it should stop a little bit of it from coming in. My guess is that it helps a very little, maybe 25%.
It's unclear what the percentage is because of many variables, the least effective (cloth) masks were stated to protect the wearer at about 10% in a study on cdc. The main benefit is to the ones around the wearer and the surfaces around them from about 30% up to 90% depending on droplets size (same study). Since an infected person is most contagious right about 1 day before they experience the first symptoms it's of huge benefit for the whole society if as much people as possible were wearing masks in public places and crowds.
Quote: DRichI never understood that. Of course it is going to benefit the wearer as it should stop a little bit of it from coming in. My guess is that it helps a very little, maybe 25%.
I would guess maybe 10%. But then you have to add in the loss of protection because the same mask over and over picks stuff up then sits on the mask people wear time after time.
People that can't afford new masks, or dumb people.Quote: AZDuffmanI would guess maybe 10%. But then you have to add in the loss of protection because the same mask over and over picks stuff up then sits on the mask people wear time after time.
ANY percentage is better than nothing.
I was looking at the Arizona Dept. of Health statistics and was surprised to see that people over 65 were only about 40% of the people hospitalized. While they represented the biggest group, the second biggest was people 20-44.
This past week has seen the most hospitalizations since July. Snowbirds are starting to drift in and many of them are coming from states that are current hotspots.
Quote: AxelWolfPeople that can't afford new masks, or dumb people.
ANY percentage is better than nothing.
People that do not want to waste money on what they see as pointless........
Quote:Preclinical
Not yet in human trials
155
Phase I
Small-scale safety trials
35
Phase II
Expanded safety trials
15
Phase III
Large-scale trials
10
Limited approval
Approved for limited use
5
Approved
Approved for human use
0
Quote: AZDuffmanPeople that do not want to waste money on what they see as pointless........
Like every casino on the East Coast I am aware of offers masks for free at the door
Trying to find excuses for everything lol
Quote: darkozLike every casino on the East Coast I am aware of offers masks for free at the door
Trying to find excuses for everything lol
Not looking for an excuse. I flat out said I hate wearing them and do so as little as possible.
Forgot mine at Red Robin last week. Figured I would risk it since they just require them when not at the table. They sat me right down. Felt so great!
Quote: AZDuffmanPeople that do not want to waste money on what they see as pointless........
Pointless to whom though. Wearing a mask in particular is primarily an act of social responsibility to all others, not to yourself. It protects others from you and they protect you from their selves when wearing one.
Quote: rawtuffPointless to whom though. Wearing a mask in particular is primarily an act of social responsibility to all others, not to yourself. It protects others from you and they protect you from their selves when wearing one.
Pointless to those of us who see them as nothing but acting like we are "doing something."
