Coronavirus math
Quote: billryanSeveral months ago, the Florida Governor was telling anyone who would listen that he expected a normal SB week with all the festivities that go along with it. Has he changed his stance?
No bill. Try reading the posts in the thread and you may understand what is going on.
The statement was that Biden's advisor is talking about the federal government mandating a nationwide shutdown of 4-6 weeks. Given the timing of Biden taking office, a federally mandated shutdown would mean the cancellation of SB.
Specifically, at this moment, please go back and read the posts before you respond irrelevantly again.
And, BTW, I think the Florida Governor knows far more about what is going on with covid-19 in his state than you do. No one can predict the future with 100% accuracy. Ex: Leronlimnab.
Quote: gordonm888No bill. Try reading the posts in the thread and you may understand what is going on.
The statement was that Biden's advisor is talking about the federal government mandating a nationwide shutdown of 4-6 weeks. Given the timing of Biden taking office, a federally mandated shutdown would mean the cancellation of SB.
Specifically, at this moment, please go back and read the posts before you respond irrelevantly again.
And, BTW, I think the Florida Governor knows far more about what is going on with covid-19 in his state than you do. No one can predict the future with 100% accuracy. Ex: Leronlimnab.
I was the strongest voice on the forum against Leronlimnab so why you would bring that up is a mystery.
An advisor to Biden brought up a lockdown and the rest of the team shut the idea down. As shown, the Gov. of Florida was still predicting a full SB experience less than six weeks ago. Nothing irrelevant about it. It's pretty scary that the leader of a state with such a large at-risk population is so out of touch.
Today we will lose 1500 Americans. By this time next week it will be closer to 2,000 a day. There is nothing irrelevant about that either.
Quote: billryanI was the strongest voice on the forum against Leronlimnab so why you would bring that up is a mystery.
An advisor to Biden brought up a lockdown and the rest of the team shut the idea down. As shown, the Gov. of Florida was still predicting a full SB experience less than six weeks ago. Nothing irrelevant about it. It's pretty scary that the leader of a state with such a large at-risk population is so out of touch.
Today we will lose 1500 Americans. By this time next week it will be closer to 2,000 a day. There is nothing irrelevant about that either.
Well, because technically you were wrong about Leronlimab.
It's now been accepted by a peer reviewed journal (link below)
DSMB (Data Safety Monitoring Board) has asked for a 75% interim analysis which is 23 patients away as of yesterday with a look at 42 day all mortality so results expected Early January.
SP dropped as people were impatient but it's still about 8x higher than what it was a year ago.
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1583/5932277#.X48nirB3Wqg.twitter
Disclaimer:. It went under $2 last week and I purchased another 5000 shares.
Quote: billryanSeveral months ago, the Florida Governor was telling anyone who would listen that he expected a normal SB week with all the festivities that go along with it. Has he changed his stance?
Of course you say you expect that. Then if things change for the worse you are still prepared.
We had the Sturgis rally with no ill effects.
Quote: AZDuffmanOf course you say you expect that. Then if things change for the worse you are still prepared.
We had the Sturgis rally with no ill effects.
A bunch of people on motorbike isn't the same as a bunch of people packed side by side in a stadium
Quote: darkozA bunch of people on motorbike isn't the same as a bunch of people packed side by side in a stadium
First, they were not on bikes all the time. Second, we are talking a couple hundred thousand not 80000 or so. Third, they were there for a week not a few hours.
this post is my personal tribute to the hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions, of infectious disease experts who have performed such a great public service in informing the public in this time of need on various social media sites
Quote: lilredrooster.....................
this post is my personal tribute to the hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions, of infectious disease experts who have performed such a great public service in informing the public in this time of need on various social media sites
Actually there were instances of similar disbelief.
Many people said the ship was unsinkable even as it sank.
Others took out half empty lifeboats not caring about the health or safety of others.
And perhaps no other historical instance shows the disparity between wealthy elitists and the poorer masses.
There were some heroic stories including wealthy Guggenheim going down with the ship (his wealth almost certainly could have gotten him onto a rowboat).
Don't down play it, you use the the word hiding as way to insult and shame others, the same way Trump did when he used the term talking about Biden. I'm not insulted since I do most things I would normally do. I just think had EVRYONE taken it seriously back when we had the chance with a short term more aggressive strict coordinated lock down along with masks and social distancing for the real essential businesses we may have been able to get somewhere. Admittedly, I don't know what that would look like of if it is remotely possible, I just know this half-assed method we are using now certainly isn't getting anywhere. It just seems to be dragging this out for a much longer period of time with no end in sight. People are in a state of uncertainty wondering when the next lock down will occur.Quote: AZDuffmanI call it "hiding" because that is what half of this board is doing and wanting. We have people on here who say they might be afraid to touch casino cheques.......FOREVER! The same ones want plexiglass at the tables. Now they are begging for more lockdowns!
I have said before that I do not add disclaimers when having a general discussion. I expect everyone on a board like this to understand what someone means when a person makes a general statement.
I had someone on this board wish death on me and management does not care. So I do not care if someone takes "hiding" personally.
I don't think its anywhere near half the board that are actually hiding and are really scared of this I would be willing to bet its a very small percentage.
Quote: AxelWolfDon't down play it, you use the the word hiding as way to insult and shame others, the same way Trump did when he used the term talking about Biden. I'm not insulted since I do most things I would normally do. I just think had EVRYONE taken it seriously back when we had the chance with a short term more aggressive strict coordinated lock down along with masks and social distancing for the real essential businesses we may have been able to get somewhere. Admittedly, I don't know what that would look like of if it is remotely possible, I just know this half-assed method we are using now certainly isn't getting anywhere. It just seems to be dragging this out for a much longer period of time with no end in sight. People are in a state of uncertainty wondering when the next lock down will occur.
I don't think its anywhere near half the board that are actually hiding and are really scared of this I would be willing to bet its a very small percentage.
We did take it seriously back then. We were closed down. The thing is you cannot just lock a country down. Too much has to be done.
The reality is this kind of thing happens every few generations. Another reality is so many people are used to living with no real fear that when it does happen it is the end of the world to them. Further reality is people are going to die because of it, we have to deal with that and just hope to come out the other side.
It is like saying, "If we only did X before Pearl Harbor the Japanese would not have attacked!" Well, maybe. But WWII would still have happened. So yes, we could have locked down tighter, but the virus still would be happening much as it is. All another lockdown will do is delay herd immunity.
Quote: AZDuffmanWe had the Sturgis rally with no ill effects.
More dangerous lies from you. Even Fox News reported how bad it was. 266K cases over the 10 day event, not to mention how many people got infected when the rallyers returned home.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-coronavirus-cases-south-dakota
Quote: rsactuaryMore dangerous lies from you. Even Fox News reported how bad it was. 266K cases over the 10 day event, not to mention how many people got infected when the rallyers returned home.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-coronavirus-cases-south-dakota
So they claim. You are going to believe 266000 cases from 460000 attendees? That does not add up.
Quote: AZDuffmanSo they claim. You are going to believe 266000 cases from 460000 attendees? That does not add up.
So because you feel the estimate is inflated you deflated it yourself (with no evidence to backi it up) to zero cases?
Quote: darkozSo because you feel the estimate is inflated you deflated it yourself (with no evidence to backi it up) to zero cases?
Never said "zero cases."
Said "no ill effects." We did not see a bunch of cases at the rally.
Enough of this crying "SUPERSPREADER" please.
Quote: billryan
Today we will lose 1500 Americans. By this time next week it will be closer to 2,000 a day. There is nothing irrelevant about that either.
I would agree that it is relevant but i believe it is also insignificant. 2000 extra deaths a day is only 20% of the total deaths per day in the U.S. Our birthrate per day is still exceeding the death rate per day.
Quote: AZDuffmanNever said "zero cases."
Said "no ill effects." We did not see a bunch of cases at the rally.
Enough of this crying "SUPERSPREADER" please.
"No I'll effects" = zero cases.
Unless you feel any number of people from 1 - 260,000 getting sick from spreading the disease is "no I'll effect"
Quote: darkoz"No I'll effects" = zero cases.
Unless you feel any number of people from 1 - 260,000 getting sick from spreading the disease is "no I'll effect"
Unless we saw a bunch of sick people there then no ill effects.
Some people will get sick even without the pandemic. But the Sturgis attendees prefer to enjoy life and not hide at home. Good for them!
You are falling into the emotional "one death is too many" instead of the logical "life is risk" group.
Quote: darkoz"No I'll effects" = zero cases.
Unless you feel any number of people from 1 - 260,000 getting sick from spreading the disease is "no I'll effect"
You know, those estimates are based on science, not political wish-thinking one way or the other. There is solid science to make those kinds of estimates. If you don't know anything about the science, one should probably stay on the opinion sidelines regarding this stuff.
If you'll notice, both through my blogs and my posts here, I nailed just about everything about this pandemic days to weeks to months ahead of it. AZ and some others have been completely utterly wrong the entire way. And each time they are wrong about numbers and consequences, they reload at the next juncture and exercise their right to be wrong again.
It's cognitive dissonance theory laid out textbook-style.
One reason I had some understanding is that my late wife had a doctorate in demography and forensically analyzed Native Americans populations at time of contact, which (by the way) featured widespread pandemics. Given American behavioral habits and no federal response, this was going one way and one way only -- and here we are.
Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota nailed everything back in March. He said between 250,000 and 850,000 deaths by the end of the pandemic. People rolled their eyes at him. Bingo bango bongo.
Back in early March, I predicted a casino shutdown to the very day on this forum. People thought I was crazy. Well, it doesn't take a genius to tell you where we will be a month after Thanksgiving. This will be a disaster. And by the way, the highest infection rates right now correlate with state political affiliation. That's not a coincidence.
Buckle up.
Quote: AZDuffmanUnless we saw a bunch of sick people there then no ill effects.
Wait!!
Are you actually stating that if people attend a rally and no one gets sick THAT VERY DAY AT THAT RALLY then there is no spread????
You are basically saying there is no incubation period of two weeks?
If that is what you are claiming then I agree with others on here who have said you are flat out spreading lies
Bald faced lies.
Means you believe in anything you wish, including the tooth fairy.
Studies are showing that some types of mouthwash are reasonably effective at inactivating Covid. Maybe a good idea if you’re going to dine indoors in particular for a teethbrush/mouthwash combo immediately after.
Quote: mcallister3200Brief pause from the bickering for little to no effort tip that may be somewhat helpful.
Studies are showing that some types of mouthwash are reasonably effective at inactivating Covid. Maybe a good idea if you’re going to dine indoors in particular for a teethbrush/mouthwash combo immediately after.
That would be hilarious if the pandemic was ended thanks to Listerine.
Quote: mcallister3200
Studies are showing that some types of mouthwash have reasonably effective at inactivating Covid. Maybe a good idea if you’re going to dine indoors in particular for a teethbrush/mouthwash combo immediately after.
Can you post a link or source of this M3200. It is not that I am doubting you, but I would love to read something like this for myself.
So we can all see that cases are exploding right now. And we know cases lag by a couple weeks of exposure ( and deaths spike in another 2 weeks). So have seen no mention of this, but let's go back 2 weeks. Election day was 2 weeks ago today with people standing in long lines and even several days before election day with early voting. I don't think it is a stretch to suggest that this election played a part in the explosion of cases.
One other thing I have been thinking about and I hope I can discuss this without it being viewed as political, because that is not my intent. So we all know that political leaning effects how you see and view this virus. Republicans tend to take less precaution, (wearing masks, want things open) while democrats, are more cautious. Even with voting republicans were more likely to vote in person (higher risk), while dems more likely to vote by mail.
So I wonder if you could some how determine the pollical views of people that have gotten sick and/or dies. I am just speculating but my guess is those numbers would be skewed to higher republican infections, illness and death.
Quote: darkozWait!!
Are you actually stating that if people attend a rally and no one gets sick THAT VERY DAY AT THAT RALLY then there is no spread????
You are basically saying there is no incubation period of two weeks?
If that is what you are claiming then I agree with others on here who have said you are flat out spreading lies
Bald faced lies.
Means you believe in anything you wish, including the tooth fairy.
Sturgis is no one-day rally. It is long enough that carriers would have gotten sick during it. We did not see that.
Quote: darkozThat would be hilarious if the pandemic was ended thanks to Listerine.
Right not end of course just somewhat could lower probability of infection, I didn’t look all that closely which is why I didn’t mention specific types. Bonus: similar effect against herpes...
Not sure how to post a link from my phone, but for those who want to look the study up it’s on biorxiv.org and the study is titled “Brief Report: The Virucidal efficacy of oral rinse components against SARS-COV-2 in Vitro” and then a second article published today on news.sky.com titled “COVID-19: Mouthwash can kill coronavirus within 30 seconds, study finds”
Quote: AZDuffmanSturgis is no one-day rally. It is long enough that carriers would have gotten sick during it. We did not see that.
What are you talking about? People don't get sick in 1 day. It takes up to 2 weeks. By that time all those Sturgis attendees were spread out back in their home states.
Hard to take you seriously when you just make up facts to suit yourself.
edit: Ok, I misread your post. I missed the "no" one day event. But still most people would have fallen ill after the event concluded and they returned home.
Quote: kewljWhat are you talking about? People don't get sick in 1 day. It takes up to 2 weeks. By that time all those Sturgis attendees were spread out back in their home states.
Hard to take you seriously when you just make up facts to suit yourself.
edit: Ok, I misread your post. I missed the "no" one day event. But still most people would have fallen ill after the event concluded and they returned home.
AZ tries to have his cake and eat it too.
Sturgis is a ten day event. Precisely how long it might take for 266,000 people to get infected.
Then AZ says that's way too much for such a short get together.
Then admits it's quite a lengthy get together.
And still doesn't recognize that ten days isn't two weeks.
Like most people making stuff up they begin contradicting themselves at every turn
Quote: darkozAZ tries to have his cake and eat it too.
Sturgis is a ten day event. Precisely how long it might take for 266,000 people to get infected.
Then AZ says that's way too much for such a short get together.
Then admits it's quite a lengthy get together.
And still doesn't recognize that ten days isn't two weeks.
Like most people making stuff up they begin contradicting themselves at every turn
Lets try this again.
It is a 10 day event, with some "pre" festivities.
If we had all the carriers you say, there would have been an outbreak over 10 days.
There was not one.
Meanwhile we have states trying to tell people they cannot see their families for Thanksgiving!
And some cheer these actions on?
Quote: AZDuffmanLets try this again.
It is a 10 day event, with some "pre" festivities.
If we had all the carriers you say, there would have been an outbreak over 10 days.
There was not one.
Meanwhile we have states trying to tell people they cannot see their families for Thanksgiving!
And some cheer these actions on?
So we are back to 266,00 equals zero in your mind!
Quote: AZDuffmanNever said "zero cases."
Said "no ill effects." We did not see a bunch of cases at the rally.
Enough of this crying "SUPERSPREADER" please.
Notice AZ tried to claim he never said "zero cases". Meanwhile his last post he claims there "no outbreaks, not one".
This is getting to be a joke now
Quote: darkozSo we are back to 266,00 equals zero in your mind!
Lets just say I stopped buying the media story months ago. You want to believe without question feel free.
Quote: AZDuffmanLets just say I stopped buying the media story months ago. You want to believe without question feel free.
You live in Pennsylvania, correct?
They have hospitals in Pennsylvania?
You insist that the media is lying. Anyone who listens to the media is just following without question.
So, AZ why do you not visit your local major hospital and see for yourself.
If you can produce a video of you visiting your local PA hospital and there are zero covid cases, the doctors you interview laugh at the suggestion covid is dangerous, then perhaps you can claim to not disbelieve without question.
I'm pretty certain you can't do that. You can't find a quiet Coronavirus free hospital right now.
Willing to bet visiting a hospital to check for yourself the dangers of covid never occurred to you
Quote: darkozThat would be hilarious if the pandemic was ended thanks to Listerine.
When the Spanish encountered Amazonian witch doctors, they laughed at them for feeding sick people moldy bread. Four hundred years later, western medicine "discovered" penicillin.
AZ, Drich and others have done an amazing job of communicating their unpopular opinions.. albeit not without a minor amount of antagonism.
DarkOz, KJ, Terapined (I love the dead) have stated their positions as well! We seem to be at an economy vs. lives juxtaposition. Essentially would I lose my mother (68) for economic growth? On the surface no: 300 lives maybe affected by her loss. To the positive, yet my own would be devastated!
Pardon my rambling: Covid-19 is a rare combination of spectacular events! As many as 80% maybe asymptomatic- therefore an entire Sturgis rally could theoretically show no symptoms, and still their contacts could infect a multitude of people beyond the initial infection point!
Could the US have done better in both economic value preserved and lives saved? Absolutely!! Was one greater in value than the other? The answer may take years! Did saving lives preserve future economic growth? The early evidence suggests yes. Although this is debatable.. Sweden with no lockdowns seems to have suffered, while Japan with a popular buy in seems to have benefitted- 15 years later we can evaluate a true picture.
Here in our own little WoV world we can mimic society at large. Most likely both AZ and DO are correct based on their own observations of the virus, and yet still- both dramatically wrong pending a postmortem of the event.
Anecdotally; assume both are correct- the proper choice would then be- life goes on as close to normal as we can maintain- utilizing mitigation measures based on science and past observable effects. Both approaches are therefore viable: Darkoz elects to remove himself from the potential super spreader equation, and AZ chooses to support his and others economic viability in accordance with observable math.
Neither AZ nor DO should denigrate the other as both are essentially within their viewpoints correct. Based simply on this moment in time. Again, I reiterate: assuming all of the above is correct- how can america navigate the next pandemic?
It does feel like we're too late to do much to slow Covid down at this point and that mitigation measures are ineffective, but that's only because we weren't strict enough initially. Best we can do now is try to slow the spread and try to keep hospitals functioning effectively.
Quote: ChumpChangeThanksgiving is cancelled, unless Atlas Shrugged.
Who is John Galt?
Quote: Minty
It does feel like we're too late to do much to slow Covid down at this point and that mitigation measures are ineffective, but that's only because we weren't strict enough initially. Best we can do now is try to slow the spread and try to keep hospitals functioning effectively.
See, the dirty little secret is we cannot do much to slow ANY virus. Not when you have to live life.
An earlier post said something about I and others do not want to sacrifice economic growth. It is not so much about "growth" as it is survival.
How crazy is it to think we can just lock everything down? Take a look at your day!
You wake up and get a shower. You want water? Well, the workers at the water works have to get to work and provide it. And the sewer workers have to get rid of it.
You want that water hot? The electric or gas workers must show up.
Want to have coffee and breakfast? Going to need to open the grocery stores and for each item there is an entire supply chain. You cannot tell cows not to show up to be milked for 3-4 weeks. You had better feed the hens who make the eggs because we cannot tell them they are on their own for 3-4 weeks.
All that supply chain that cannot be stopped still needs gasoline, refinery workers have to show.
Look how many workers we already have to let out to work, and you have not even finished your breakfast!
The people whining that "we did not contain it!" never look at this big picture. They just want to blame someone or something because nature did something they did not like. The ask for mask mandates because it makes them feel we are doing something. Sorry, but we have to just rough thru this.
Fact is anyone who does not remember before the mid-1960s has not had to rough thru anything on a large scale. Now that we have to some are rising to the challenge others are hoping that wearing a mask will just make it all go away. They have been wearing masks for about 200 days now in most places and are thinking that the masks should have ended it........yet it is still here! So, since the masks did not end it now they want to be locked down again! What will they want when that does not work?
Quote: AZDuffmanWho is John Galt?
After reading Atlas Shrugged, a better question might be who cares?
Or as a friend once remarked- he is the guy you don't want to get stuck sitting next to at a dinner party.
Our country is doomed
We are now dealing with virus truthers
They make Dr appointments to get access to hospitals to expose the fake virus.
Meanwhile Taiwan has the roadmap to eliminate the virus.
Originally they were saying maybe 6 months, but that was just a guess and I guess on the safe or short end. Now they are 'speculating' that it might be several years of immunity. They are even pointing to similarities to the Sars virus of 2003 where most people still have immunity 17 years later, suggesting the possibility of life long immunity. Again, because this virus is still in its infancy, data is inconclusive, but looking like good possibilities.
Of course then you have the flip side like the case out of Nevada last month where a young healthy 30 something year old guy got the virus for a second time two months after he initially contracted the virus and they know it was a second infection because Virus DNA (or some kind of test like that) showed it was a different strain than the first infection. I mean hopefully this kind of thing is just a rare anomaly, but who knows about any of it.
Quote: mcallister3200I read somewhere recently, that estimated the chance of not being reinfected at something like 99.9982%. IF that figure were to be correct that would provide someone with more immunity than a vaccine plausibly would.
I would LOVE that, but no offense M3200 but I'd like a little more than "I read somewhere....". Lol.
Quote: mcallister3200Yeah I honestly don’t remember anything but the number. I get the feeling you’re scared enough of a reinfection you wouldn’t really be comfortable regardless.
I have head two heart surgeries, which while I consider myself healthy now and my doctor says I am healthy, that puts me in a higher risk category for this virus. And of course I contracted the virus when there was an outbreak in our building and had a moderately difficult time with it.
I wouldn't say scared, but I try not to place myself in riskier situations either. I try to find a balance. I played for 4-5 months from June through October. It wasn't until cases started exploding again, that I deemed casino blackjack play out of my comfort level.
I go out everyday to do something. Ride my bike, walking. I go to the store if necessary. I just no longer am comfortable putting myself in one of the riskier situations of Casino blackjack play.
Another thing I don't like is elevators. When my partner passed a couple years ago, my brother and I bought a condo in a highrise. We are on one of the upper floors. When I go out each day I take the steps because even if there is no one on the elevator it is likely to stop picking up people on the way down. Now coming home I will jump on the elevator in the lobby when no one is on, because it isn't likely to stop on one of the lower floors to pick people up going UP. lol
Btw, what does wearing a mask have to do with killing the economy? If anything it would be the social distancing not the masks. (for restaurants and barbers)
In fact, people other than just medical people do jobs in protective gear all day every day. Some of it quite heavy and burdensome. Not just easy jobs in some cases even if it didn't require gear. Masks weigh not that much in the grams.
Quote: mcallister3200Sounds like a good reason to move there first chance you get if you think it’s so great and hate the US.
I want to make America great again :-)
