Coronavirus math
Quote: ChumpChangeI'm still coughing 17 years after SARS, so I have to take Advair 250/50 twice a day. I've got a year's supply saved up. If I stop taking it I'll be coughing like I was dying of COVID-19 within a week or two. Small particulates get to me: soot blowing down the street, steam from my chicken noodle soup, not even gonna speculate about bong smoke but the cough is the same.
Try Taiwan? I've heard there's no cats there and the streets are paved with cheese.
Below 1% means the virus is dissipating,, being kept from being spread.
Over 1% means you are going the opposite direction.
We are in a surge and NYS has reached 3% I believe.
So it was pretty shocking to hear Iowa just hit 50% POSITIVITY RATE
Quote: darkozNYS managed to get the positivity rate below 1% for awhile.
Below 1% means the virus is dissipating,, being kept from being spread.
Over 1% means you are going the opposite direction.
We are in a surge and NYS has reached 3% I believe.
So it was pretty shocking to hear Iowa just hit 50% POSITIVITY RATE
You’re confusing the positivity rate with the R rate.
Quote: unJonYou’re confusing the positivity rate with the R rate.
Oh thanks.
Quote: unJonYou’re confusing the positivity rate with the R rate.
Please explain the difference. Thanks.
Quote: billryanPlease explain the difference. Thanks.
Positivity rate is the number of positive texts divided by the number of total tests in a given period. It’s what people are using to measure “how bad it is” in a given area. As you can tell, there are some assumptions that go into that. For example, where I live there are a lot of people that go take a test even if a doctor doesn’t recommend it, because they are “worried.” That behavior would tend to decrease the positivity rate. But it’s the closest easy data point we have for “how bad it is.”
R rate is a measure of at a given time in a given place of how many people an infected person will infect. An R below 1 means that COVID cases will decrease over time because each infected person is infecting less than 1 other person. A R above 1 means that COVID cases will increase because an infected person is infecting more than one person.
A positivity rate of 50% is absurd. One wonders whether there’s something going on there in the denominator of who is getting tested. An R of 50% would be good (less than 1) though an R of 50 would be catastrophic (we would be hitting Chumpchange level projections).
Quote: billryanPlease explain the difference. Thanks.
Really? No offence, but the R0 (reproduction) rate is THE key measure. In Europe it's importance is drummed into us as the measure we aspire to control with whatever measures we apply.
Simply put, R0 is the number of people that an infected person goes on to infect. R0>1:Bad R0<1: Good
So, for example if we initially have ten infected people and the R rate is 0.9, By the time those ten are recovered, there will be another 9 infected.... At the next cycle, we have 9x 0.9=8 Then 8.1x0.9=7 .... and so on, as the number infected exponentially decays towards 0 infected.
If R=1.5 then our 10 people infect 15. Those 15 infect 22. Those 22 infect 33 and on and on. Exponential growth.
Unchecked by any measures, the R rate for Covid is somewhere in the region 2 to 5, so infection grows explosively.
R is a number that can be experimentally derived, but not easily measured. It's a dynamic and temporary measure and changes with our behaviours.
The positivity rate is a measure of the percentage of those that get tested, who turn out to be positive for infection. It's a function of the dynamics of those that go for a test: Where people are encouraged to take a test regardless of symptoms, you'll get a much different positivity rate to where tests are only administered to those admitted to hospital. It's a measure that gets manipulated by politicians with an agenda.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/what-exactly-does-the-covid-19-positivity-rate-tell-us/ar-BB16HftD
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-what-is-the-r0-reproduction-rate/vi-BB1aPNg1
Policy gets decided on both or either of these measures, or indeed on no stronger measure than gut feel or faith.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1330287079708893184.html?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
Quote: terapinedIf you travel to Taiwan, here are the rules. This is how a country eliminates the virus.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1330287079708893184.html?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
I can see why you prefer to live here.
Quote: RogerKintI can see why you prefer to live here.
Not if I get sick
World class healthcare in Taiwan
3rd world healthcare in say El Paso or the Dakotas. Say you have to go to the hospital, what kind of care will you get in a overfilled hospital. Certainly not as good as a hospital in Taiwan.
Quote: mcallister3200You know you can’t just leave that rv parked under the bridge man.
Why not?
Where I park is home
Quote: terapinedWhy not?
Where I park is home
I mean if your home is a under a bridge people might think you’re a troll, and we wouldn’t want that now would we.
Quote: mcallister3200I mean if your home is a under a bridge people might think you’re a troll, and we wouldn’t want that now would we.
Why is posting about countries that have beat the virus is trolling?
It's a virus math thread. The math out of Taiwan is incredible, 7 deaths. USA quarter million deaths.
People should be thrilled that there are countries that beat the virus.
The roadmap is out there to grow the economy.
That's what everybody wants, a safe country with a thriving economy. That used to be the USA, now its Taiwan.
I don't want the USA to end up as a 3rd world country with crappy healthcare due to the virus overwhelming hospitals
Quote: terapinedWhy is posting about countries that have beat the virus is trolling?
It's a virus math thread. The math out of Taiwan is incredible, 7 deaths. USA quarter million deaths.
People should be thrilled that there are countries that beat the virus.
The roadmap is out there to grow the economy.
That's what everybody wants, a safe country with a thriving economy. That used to be the USA, now its Taiwan.
I don't want the USA to end up as a 3rd world country with crappy healthcare due to the virus overwhelming hospitals
I happened to find the link to how Taiwan does it very interesting. Thank you for posting
Quote: terapinedWhy is posting about countries that have beat the virus is trolling?
It's a virus math thread. The math out of Taiwan is incredible, 7 deaths. USA quarter million deaths.
People should be thrilled that there are countries that beat the virus.
The roadmap is out there to grow the economy.
That's what everybody wants, a safe country with a thriving economy. That used to be the USA, now its Taiwan.
I don't want the USA to end up as a 3rd world country with crappy healthcare due to the virus overwhelming hospitals
The 3rd world country part would probably qualify. In either case you led with your chin with the wherever I park it part, had to expect it. For my money they always should have left El Paso south of the wall if they build it anyway.
fellow Americans are really hurting, through no fault of their own.
Quote: billryanLast Thanksgiving, the local VFW/AL filled 50something requests for free Thanksgiving dinners. This year they are over 125 with two days to the cutoff. The debate now is do they continue the annual toy drive or dedicate the resources to feeding families. Many of our
fellow Americans are really hurting, through no fault of their own.
And yet people are calling for more and new lockdowns. Some say "tough" to businesses forced to close.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnd yet people are calling for more and new lockdowns. Some say "tough" to businesses forced to close.
Any calls for a lockdown come with a government package that would give both businesses and people a government stimulus. A month-long shutdown that paid peoples and businesses expenses would end this nightmare. Instead we will see more and more families waiting in eight-hour lines for care packages and businesses failing because people either can't afford to go there or are unwilling to risk their health. Most of the programs designed to help people have expired or will by the end of the year and there are zero indications the Senate will lift a finger to help anyone but their targeted donors.
We're gonna fall hard like Cuba in the late '50's.
Quote: billryanAny calls for a lockdown come with a government package that would give both businesses and people a government stimulus. A month-long shutdown that paid peoples and businesses expenses would end this nightmare. Instead we will see more and more families waiting in eight-hour lines for care packages and businesses failing because people either can't afford to go there or are unwilling to risk their health. Most of the programs designed to help people have expired or will by the end of the year and there are zero indications the Senate will lift a finger to help anyone but their targeted donors.
No stimulus comes close to making up for a lockdown. It just cannot happen. You are talking $2.5 trillion PER MONTH!
Hard to say on people "risking their health." Yesterday I was at a family-style restaurant that was probably 1/10 as busy as it would be. Down the street a more trendy place that caters to a younger demo was as usual packed. The Senate had a bill, the House refused to negotiate.
We are probably headed for a mini-depression at some point. I will go from working mortgage refinances to working foreclosures or foreclosure abatement. That will be the second time I make that cycle.
Meanwhile we will be in a weird period, some people feasting with others in dire straits.
The first few weeks almost everyone bought in but once flatten the curve changed into another narrative a subset of people were never going to believe and buy into whatever the current narrative is again, which is a large part of why we have so many anti-maskers. It’s a fact that the initial half assed lockdown everyone was told by the medical experts it was to flatten the curve; then when cases stopped rising and flattened it changed to medical having enough PPE equipment, then it changed to minimizing deaths. If the messaging had been honest or transparent perhaps the response would have been better, we will never know.
People smoke by choice And can avoid Smokey places. People don’t catch the virus on purpose.
I do agree more should be done about smoking but that’s a different issue.
Quote: KeyserAround 480k people die each year from smoking. Around 240k have died from the China Virus. Yet we still allow people to smoke in casinos and bars, even with the virus. The media and politicians created the coronagasm fear, but ignore smoking.
???????????????????????
Cancer is not contagious, the virus is
Quote: terapined???????????????????????
Cancer is not contagious, the virus is
Lung cancer from smoking is very preventable. Simply stop smoking. Furthermore, putting others at risk via second hand smoke is also preventable.
Then there's the obvious...letting smokers go without a face mask while they blow their smoke, bad breath, and germs everywhere.
Quote: terapined???????????????????????
Cancer is not contagious, the virus is
You sure that all the factors that cause cancer aren’t contagious?
Quote: unJonYou sure that all the factors that cause cancer aren’t contagious?
Speaking of which, I got cancer today. On my birthday, no less. Actually I got a call from the dermatologist today that I have skin cancer. Patch of skin cancer. Hooray. Not really worried about it. Some sort of acid cream for six weeks is the treatment.
But if you want something funnier, here is The Onions take on math I just saw.
Quote:New Covid Cases Expected To Level Off As Trend Line Reaches Top Of Graph
Quote: rxwineSpeaking of which, I got cancer today. On my birthday, no less. Actually I got a call from the dermatologist today that I have skin cancer. Patch of skin cancer. Hooray. Not really worried about it. Some sort of acid cream for six weeks is the treatment.
But if you want something funnier, here is The Onions take on math I just saw.
Look on the bright side at least you don't have Covid-19
Quote: rxwineSpeaking of which, I got cancer today. On my birthday, no less. Actually I got a call from the dermatologist today that I have skin cancer. Patch of skin cancer. Hooray. Not really worried about it. Some sort of acid cream for six weeks is the treatment.
But if you want something funnier, here is The Onions take on math I just saw.
Really sorry. Sounds like a very good prognosis.
Quote: unJonReally sorry. Sounds like a very good prognosis.
Thanks no problem. It just seemed like a weird coincidence seeing the covid thread on about cancer. It really is about the best cancer there is as cancers go, and you won't hear that too often. Although all cancers are bad if they are far advanced, but this isn't. My sister called to wish me a happy birthday, and I was tempted to tell her but couldn't, not today. Because a few years back, our brother died on her birthday of cancer and she was really upset then.
And everyone, except some, lived happily ever after. Eventually. The End.
Why?Quote: DRichI was supossed to go to Florida tomorrow for a family reunion. My plans may be changing.
Quote: DRichSome of us don't care about safety if it compromises our life enjoyment. I believe life is meaningless and I don't care if everybody dies.
I wish them prompt and complete recovery.
Quote: OnceDearWhy?
I wish them prompt and complete recovery.
Thank you for the wishes.
Both my sister and her daughter have it and live near my parents. They see each other regularly. My wife has auto-immune health problems so she has already said that she is out. This has all just transpired in the last two hours so I need to talk to my parents and other sister and see what their concerns are. I will go if my other sister and her family go but will cancel if they cancel. This would have been the first time all of us would be together in over 10 years.
As I understand it, you are not overly concerned about visiting and potentially catching it yourself, while your wife is more defensive of her health. Is that a reasonable assessment?Quote: DRichThank you for the wishes.
Both my sister and her daughter have it and live near my parents. They see each other regularly. My wife has auto-immune health problems so she has already said that she is out. This has all just transpired in the last two hours so I need to talk to my parents and other sister and see what their concerns are. I will go if my other sister and her family go but will cancel if they cancel. This would have been the first time all of us would be together in over 10 years.
If you went and your wife was happy to stay home, what if any steps would you take to prevent your bringing the infection home to your wife?
Just trying to understand your thinking.
Quote: OnceDearAs I understand it, you are not overly concerned about visiting and potentially catching it yourself, while your wife is more defensive of her health. Is that a reasonable assessment?
If you went and your wife was happy to stay home, what if any steps would you take to prevent your bringing the infection home to your wife?
Just trying to understand your thinking.
You are correct, I am not concerned about myself. My sister and niece are now quarantined so we would not be exposed to them. The question is has it already been transmitted to my 85 year old parents. Wth my parents age and health conditions it was assumed that this would be the last time that we would all be able to get together. I am taking the cowardly way out. If my other sister and her family still go then I will go. The hard part is the timing of this just coming up this morning and we all have flights scheduled for tomorrow.
Quote: DRichI just found out the two of my family members have Covid and are now in quarantine. I was supossed to go to Florida tomorrow for a family reunion. My plans may be changing.
Why? After months of claiming you don't care if you live or die, you now have a chance to show it. Why let a silly little thing like them having the virus affect your plans. You are going to die eventually. Why allow a pandemic to change your lifestyle?
Quote: billryanWhy? After months of claiming you don't care if you live or die, you now have a chance to show it. Why let a silly little thing like them having the virus affect your plans. You are going to die eventually. Why allow a pandemic to change your lifestyle?
I am going. Of course I don't care if I die, but I have no interest in killing others.
I just heard from my sisters family and they are still going so I will. If someone offered me $10,000 I would sit in a room for a day with five Covid positive people. I have almost zero regard for myself.
The only reason I would have cancelled would have been if the gathering was not going to happen. Trust me, I am not a hypocrite on this topic. I just checked in for my flight.
He doesn't want to bring it back to his wife. I thought he made that clear.Quote: billryanWhy? After months of claiming you don't care if you live or die, you now have a chance to show it. Why let a silly little thing like them having the virus affect your plans. You are going to die eventually. Why allow a pandemic to change your lifestyle?
He may not care if he lives or dies, but others do, including myself. I hope you care as well.
While i don't share your casual* approach to infection, I can see the value in what might be an end of life visit. Like yourself, I have immune suppressed immediate family and very elderly family member, neither of which would survive infection. For that reason, we long ago collectively agreed that none of us would risk bringing the infection home. So I have shielded myself even though I'm personally less at risk. No physical Christmas get-togethers planned.Quote: DRichYou are correct, I am not concerned about myself. My sister and niece are now quarantined so we would not be exposed to them. The question is has it already been transmitted to my 85 year old parents. Wth my parents age and health conditions it was assumed that this would be the last time that we would all be able to get together. I am taking the cowardly way out. If my other sister and her family still go then I will go. The hard part is the timing of this just coming up this morning and we all have flights scheduled for tomorrow.
Maybe, in your case, I'd weigh up and compare the value of missing your parent's last Thanksgiving compared to potentially killing your relatively younger wife. I see no contradiction in weighing up values objectively against your own scale.
If it were me, I'd consider the best of both worlds... Make the visit, but isolate yourself from the wife for about a week upon your return as a courtesy to her.
But then I'm suggesting the kind of compromise that you previously eschewed. Oh hum. Your call.
*Not being deliberately judgemental. And when you mention takng a cowardly route: I see no issue with that.
Quote: billryanWhy? After months of claiming you don't care if you live or die, you now have a chance to show it. Why let a silly little thing like them having the virus affect your plans. You are going to die eventually. Why allow a pandemic to change your lifestyle?
Did you read even read the posts?
Quote: unJonDid you read even read the posts?
There are posts?
LOL. Lots.Quote: billryanThere are posts?
I think it's fair to say that DRich has posted some opinions about not letting fear of coronavirus disrupt his life. I suspect Billryan is challenging some slight contradictions in DRiches latter posts.
Seems like reasonable conversation to me.
Anyway... Good luck to DRich and his family whatever course they take.
Catching up on this thread, and about 9 days behind.... but can you elaborate on this?
Strange things initiate a coughing fit for me: namely burning skin- chicken, sausage, etc- once the skin starts to char I hack uncontrollably... including any mixture involving bleach. Steak not so much- can char a steak without missing a beat. Yet a batch of wings and I am hacking almost to puking (sorry for the imagery there)
Funeral homes crushed by demand as COVID-19 deaths skyrocket.
911 call systems at a breaking point.
Quote: LVJackal
Strange things initiate a coughing fit for me: namely burning skin- chicken, sausage, etc- once the skin starts to char I hack uncontrollably... including any mixture involving bleach. Steak not so much- can char a steak without missing a beat. Yet a batch of wings and I am hacking almost to puking (sorry for the imagery there)
Yes, cooking things or frying things like hamburgers & hotdogs can provoke a coughing fit if I'm not on my Advair. Doctor says it's a "coughing type of asthma."
Quote: ChumpChangeYes, cooking things or frying things like hamburgers & hotdogs can provoke a coughing fit if I'm not on my Advair. Doctor says it's a "coughing type of asthma."
After my heart surgery in 2017, I developed LPR a type of acid reflux that effects higher up in the throat area. One of the symptoms is that I cough a lot. My doctor has tried to explain the connection between heart surgery and LPR, but I don't really see it. But anyway, It is pretty controlled with medication, except when I eat I will general cough a few times during the meal. Not a coughing fit or anything, just a cough clearing my throat. Normally not a problem at all, but during these covid times you cough a couple times and people look at you like you have the plague.
Now back to the numbers: Today is Pearl Harbor Day. We lost 2403 military personnel at Pearl Harbor on Dec 7, 1941. We lose that many almost everyday currently from covid. (more than 2403, 3 times last week).
People just seem to have grown tired of fighting this disease and are just throwing their hands in the air saying, I don't care, I just want to do what I want to do. On the doorstep of a vaccine, I don't get this. ?? It is not like the solution is years down the road.
Anyway, carry on everyone. Good health to all.
