Coronavirus math
Quote: rxwineSome people are never above ripping people off under any circumstances. If a whole family dies, somebody would rob their empty house given a chance and steal the money donated to bury them as well. And steal the flowers off the graves.
If you are going to steal, steal from the dead. They have less need for stuff than most people.
Quote: billryanIf you are going to steal, steal from the dead. They have less need for stuff than most people.
Well, okay, I should have left one survivor who is left penniless and with the rest of the family dead.
Quote: SOOPOOBob, I agree that if there are reported 1 million cases, there are some multiple of that. But not 100 million. Also, the death rate will NOT drop to where the regular flu is. From the front lines, the deaths of previously healthy individuals occurs at a far greater rate than a flu patient. It also is easier to contract. I do believe in the USA, the final death rate will be around .5-.8%. Which is 5 to 8 times as lethal as the flu.
SOOPOO set me straight if I've got this wrong, but I believe CDC influenza numbers for death rate are based on estimates of the number of influenza cases and not based on testing/confirmed cases. Hence the influenza death rate is lower than if done against the testing/confirmed number.
The flip side is that we have been living with influenza for quite a long time so presumably the estimates the CDC produces reflect what's actually going on in the country. I assume that the influenza case rate estimate is done through modelling, and hopefully that model gets periodically evaluated against a wide sampling of data -- which the model hasn't seen.
Quote: SOOPOOOne thing I have not seen discussed anywhere....
Many nursing home residents, and some non nursing’ home residents, are DNR. So our extreme attempts at survival would not be used on them. I’m wondering out if all the COVID-19 deaths, how many (what percentage) were in DNR patients?
Good question.
I've heard that doctors in Italy have a lot of leeway in assigning cause of death and so many deaths in Italy are being coded against COVID-19 despite having one or more comorbidities. What leeway would doctors in the USA have on coding a death in this situation? Dying with coronavirus and dying from COVID-19 are two different things.
--helpmespock
Quote:According to Florida Statute 406.11, in the district in which the death occurred or where the body was found, the Medical Examiner must determine the cause of death when a person dies from the following:
Criminal violence
Accident, suicide, or poison
Suddenly, when in apparent good health
Unattended by a practicing physician or other recognized practitioner
In any prison or penal institution
In any suspicious or unusual circumstance
By criminal abortion
By disease constituting a threat to public health
By disease, injury, or toxic agent resulting from employment
For deaths that occur in one of these categories, the Medical Examiner also has the authority to perform whatever autopsies or laboratory examinations that are deemed to be in the public interest.
More bad news for the 3.4%ers. Studies on that cruise ship where everybody got tested reveals a mortality rate of .66%. Right in line with Soopoo’s figures and South Korea.
Quote: DeMangohttps://www.foxnews.com/health/half-people-coronavirus-have-no-symptoms-data-show
More bad news for the 3.4%ers. Studies on that cruise ship where everybody got tested reveals a mortality rate of .66%. Right in line with Soopoo’s figures and South Korea.
And it might be lower if Chloroquin works, or if remdesivir works, or if the Interleukin drug works.... even a little.
Quote: rxwineThere's a Maryland nursing home with 77 out 95 infected. 6 already dead. What do you think the death toll will be there?
I believe the one in Washington was 53 infected, 19 dead.
So the O/U here would be 27.5
Maybe with a months more knowledge of how to treat the virus , more can be saved.
Quote: DeMangohttps://www.foxnews.com/health/half-people-coronavirus-have-no-symptoms-data-show
More bad news for the 3.4%ers. Studies on that cruise ship where everybody got tested reveals a mortality rate of .66%. Right in line with Soopoo’s figures and South Korea.
That still might be 3.4% of CONFIRMED cases. At this point, many, many more have got this and beat this without officially being tested. 0.66% of all cases sounds reasonable. Our testing rate has been terribly slow.
Oh I agree. There are figures out there of 10-20-25% Even 3.4% would be millions. If it got to 25% it would be Book of Revelation time.Quote: tringlomaneThat still might be 3.4% of CONFIRMED cases. At this point, many, many more have got this and beat this without officially being tested. 0.66% of all cases sounds reasonable. Our testing rate has been terribly slow.
Quote: billryanHobby Lobby stores nationwide are trying to open. In some states, they are claiming to be an essential service, because they sell items that can be used in home schooling activities. In others, they are simply defying local law.
I find it amazing that they value their employees ( and employees families) less than the almighty buck.
Called you need to stay in business. Beer Distributors in PA are open. Liquor stores are in others. Why are you not calling that out as well?
I realize it's is a subtle difference. One group obeying the law, the other defying the law.
Quote: billryanBecause the states are allowing liquor stores to stay open. Hobby Lobby was trying to open in spite of being told to shut down.
I realize it's is a subtle difference. One group obeying the law, the other defying the law.
The liquor stores were told to shut down. In PA the State Stores (state liquor store monopoly) have been shut down here. They made a case people would get DTs if they could not get their booze so they got a pass. Hobby Lobby made a case as well. I really see no difference. I see a person singling out Hobby Lobby among many businesses wanting to maintain their business. Why I do not know. Did you once work for Hobby Lobby and get fired?
Quote: AZDuffmanThe liquor stores were told to shut down. In PA the State Stores (state liquor store monopoly) have been shut down here. They made a case people would get DTs if they could not get their booze so they got a pass. Hobby Lobby made a case as well. I really see no difference. I see a person singling out Hobby Lobby among many businesses wanting to maintain their business. Why I do not know. Did you once work for Hobby Lobby and get fired?
I think PA might be the only state nationwide to actually shut their liquor stores down fully at first. But it looks like they allow online delivery. Alabama added restrictions and allow curbside service only.
And finally Hobby Lobby stops fighting.
https://www.hobbylobby.com/covid-19?ref=cj&utm_source=CJ&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=Skimlinks&cjevent=aeab68e175e511ea82ff01030a1c0e14
I think all craft stores should be closed, but now since they are recommending masks and the easiest way to get one now is to make one yourself...*shrug*
Quote: AZDuffmanThe liquor stores were told to shut down. In PA the State Stores (state liquor store monopoly) have been shut down here. They made a case people would get DTs if they could not get their booze so they got a pass. Hobby Lobby made a case as well. I really see no difference. I see a person singling out Hobby Lobby among many businesses wanting to maintain their business. Why I do not know. Did you once work for Hobby Lobby and get fired?
I didn't really expect you to see the subtle difference between one group of business's obeying the law and another violating it.
Quote: billryanI didn't really expect you to see the subtle difference between one group of business's obeying the law and another violating it.
I see two different businesses trying to stay open by claiming they are "essential." I do not understand why you call out Hobby Lobby and not liquor stores. I am not often in Hobby Lobby, but social distancing is easy there as they are not high volume places. Liquor stores I have been in are usually more crowded.
Why are you not upset at liquor stores?
State Lotteries are still being drawn, are you upset that the clerks are writing the tickets? Is that "essential?"
Why are you only upset at Hobby Lobby?
I do not get it.
Quote: AZDuffmanI see two different businesses trying to stay open by claiming they are "essential." I do not understand why you call out Hobby Lobby and not liquor stores. I am not often in Hobby Lobby, but social distancing is easy there as they are not high volume places. Liquor stores I have been in are usually more crowded.
Why are you not upset at liquor stores?
State Lotteries are still being drawn, are you upset that the clerks are writing the tickets? Is that "essential?"
Why are you only upset at Hobby Lobby?
I do not get it.
Obviously.
Quote: AZDuffmanCalled you need to stay in business. Beer Distributors in PA are open. Liquor stores are in others. Why are you not calling that out as well?
Liquor stores in Nevada are allowed` to start delivering todAY.
Quote: AZDuffmanCalled you need to stay in business. Beer Distributors in PA are open. Liquor stores are in others. Why are you not calling that out as well?
Liquor stores in Nevada are allowed` to start delivering todAY.
Quote: KeyserSadly politics and ideology are having some governors preventing it's wide spread use.
There is a sufficient shortage of these drugs that prevent its wide spread distribution no matter what any politician does or does not do. Trying to point to ideology as the reason for the shortage of something that has a completely new use is definitely political commentary.
Local yahoos are talking up a secret dawn service for Easter, at a yet to be determined location.
Quote: billryanObviously.
Of course obviously, as you failed to explain your reasoning.
Quote: AZDuffman
Why are you not upset at liquor stores?
.
Don't liquor stores fall under the FDA? (Food and Drug)
Not Hobby Lobby.
Quote: rxwineDon't liquor stores fall under the FDA? (Food and Drug)
Not Hobby Lobby.
I don't think any retail falls under FDA. At best they might be under ATF.
I live under a Soviet system, note I call them "State Stores." (TRIVIA: In "Slap Shot" there is a classic State Store in the background in a scene.) Thus here they were easy to close. Now there is worry about people getting DTs. BTW, they were jammed when closure was announced.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/coronavirus?ocid=spartanntp
(well the US only, flatness is fairly dramatic, the world, less so.)
Quote: AZDuffmanI see two different businesses trying to stay open by claiming they are "essential." I do not understand why you call out Hobby Lobby and not liquor stores. I am not often in Hobby Lobby, but social distancing is easy there as they are not high volume places. Liquor stores I have been in are usually more crowded.
Why are you not upset at liquor stores?
State Lotteries are still being drawn, are you upset that the clerks are writing the tickets? Is that "essential?"
Why are you only upset at Hobby Lobby?
I do not get it.
Because in states/areas that didn't allow Hobby Lobby to stay open and Hobby Lobby acted like they are above the law and kept operating.
Same with those jerks at Game Stop. If liquor stores were ORDERED closed, they would have likely complied. Unlike Hobby Lobby and Game Stop.
Now you can argue liquor and lottery are not essential. But that's not what we're arguing here. Hobby Lobby defied the order to close!
forklift loading corpses into into a tractor trailer outside a New York hospital:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT7I_dYxMjI
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-nyc-forklift-transfers-victims-bodies-refrigerated-truck-temporary-morgue-2020-3
21% of cases worldwide have recovered
5% cases in the U.S. have recovered
9% in New York have recovered
I'm assuming they're referring to the entire state not just NYC which is much worse than the rest of the state
5.4% have died from it worldwide
2.7% in the U.S. have died from it
3.1% in New York have died from it
Quote: rxwineI'm not sure what site has best interactive chart. But I like this one. When you find the small trends chart, click the expand in the corner of it. Then your mouse pointer on the chart shows the numbers as you move it. You can ponder just how long those trend lines were flat.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/coronavirus?ocid=spartanntp
(well the US only, flatness is fairly dramatic, the world, less so.)
Very interesting when you drill down to the state/province level or, even better, for the U.S. to the county-level and do some comparisons of fatality rates. The numbers this morning give the following case fatality stats:
- for the entire U.S. 2.72%
- for NY State: 3.14%
- NYC is 4.14%
- Nassau County: 1.03%
- Suffolk Co: 0.84%
I limited myself to counties with at least 5000 cases since I figure stats for a smaller sample don't mean much. I was going to look at the county-level variance in Louisiana and Florida but the per-county totals are, with the exception of Miami-Dade, still too low to reach any meaningful conclusion. I'm guessing that will unfortunately be changing.
Quote: lilredroosterthis - according to Wikipedia as of today:
21% of cases worldwide have recovered
5% cases in the U.S. have recovered
9% in New York have recovered
I'm assuming they're referring to the entire state not just NYC which is much worse than the rest of the state
5.4% have died from it worldwide
2.7% in the U.S. have died from it
3.1% in New York have died from it
It's been said before, but you must be familiar with the term GIGO. 2.7% of people who have TESTED positive have died. NOT 2.7% of those who had it.
Iceland, a small country of around a half million people is a good self contained experiment to draw inferences from. They have LOTS of testing, I believe more than 10 times as many tests per capita as the USA. They have like 1400 positive tests..... and only 4 deaths so far.
I KNOW of 3 people that I would bet have had the disease but will never appear in the data base because they did not get tested. My three nephews were a little sick with mild coronavirus symptoms, just got better, and didn't think much of it. My sister and brother in law did get tested, and were both positive.
The numerator of who has died from coronavirus is easy to obtain..... we are nowhere close to knowing the true denominator.
I checked the Erie County website last night..... Only 3 deaths of people under 60 so far....
I am on some Dr. email list from NYS, nothing to do with coronavirus pandemic. I get a weekly flu death update, flu cases, who, what, where, etc....
There have been 14 PEDIATRIC deaths due to flu this season in NYS. That was a surprisingly high number to me. Last week the number of flu cases plummeted. Looking at the graph, it is hard to say if the social distancing was the main factor, or just the weather change and seasonality of the flu.
Quote: DeMangoThis board does not like disinformation about gambling. But this virus brings statements that are so false, these posters need to be in red. Thanks Soopoo.
Would declaring that trump initiated his travel ban on December 31st be the kind of falsehood that is ban worthy?
Quote: DeMangoThis board does not like disinformation about gambling. But this virus brings statements that are so false, these posters need to be in red. Thanks Soopoo.
nice try but my info was not incorrect
𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐛𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐞 𝐝𝐨 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞
𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦
𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕟𝕜 𝕥𝕨𝕚𝕔𝕖 𝕟𝕖𝕩𝕥 𝕥𝕚𝕞𝕖 𝕓𝕖𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕪𝕠𝕦 𝕞𝕒𝕜𝕖 𝕒 𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕥𝕖𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥 𝕥𝕙𝕒𝕥 𝕞𝕚𝕤𝕤𝕖𝕤 𝕤𝕠𝕞𝕖𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕤𝕠 𝕧𝕖𝕣𝕪 𝕠𝕓𝕧𝕚𝕠𝕦𝕤
Quote: billryanWould declaring that trump initiated his travel ban on December 31st be the kind of falsehood that is ban worthy?
Golly I'd say no. Was it January 31? If so, I'd take the December 31 poster to task, and cite my evidence. Then move on.
Quote: SOOPOOGolly I'd say no. Was it January 31? If so, I'd take the December 31 poster to task, and cite my evidence. Then move on.
I believe the travel ban took place on Jan 31. At the same time smug people were calling the person that implemented it xenophobic and racist.
Reports of huge lines at Santa Clara County Fairgrounds for three drive-through antibody testing stations under Stanford experimental testing program.Quote: SOOPOO
It's been said before, but you must be familiar with the term GIGO. 2.7% of people who have TESTED positive have died. NOT 2.7% of those who had it.
Quote: KeyserI believe the travel ban took place on Jan 31. At the same time smug people were calling the person that implemented it xenophobic and racist.
that's not mutually exclusive, that's just convenient.
stop making political posts.
so, I'm not tempted to respond to them.
Quote: KeyserI believe the travel ban took place on Jan 31. At the same time smug people were calling the person that implemented it xenophobic and racist.
If you believe the so called travel ban took effect on Jan 31st, why did you say it was done on Dec 31st?
Many people in the know were saying that about the person in question long before he was in politics.
Quote: billryanIf you believe the so called travel ban took effect on Jan 31st, why did you say it was done on Dec 31st?
Many people in the know were saying that about the person in question long before he was in politics.
I wasn't aware that I had said Dec 31. If I did then it was nothing more than a typo or honest mistake. People making such claims about the "person in charge" though are just being smug and pretentious.
Quote: billryanWould declaring that trump initiated his travel ban on December 31st be the kind of falsehood that is ban worthy?
Whoa, just an honest mistake. Are people really this uptight? Exchange the tighty whities for a larger pair. Lol!!!
Quote: KeyserHe's supposed to be the head guy! He's supposed to have access to all of the information and Intel. The president imposed the travel ban on Dec 31 and recognized the threat, why didn't Fauci???
Like I've said, I'm not impressed with the guy at all! I don't like the idea of him being in charge of recommending when we should impose or lift any kind of quarantine or social distancing.
I still feel Fauci isn't the man for the job though. He let the country down, so did the CDC. That's my point.
Quote: KeyserI still feel Fauci isn't the man for the job though. He let the country down, so did the CDC. That's my point.
At this point we're moving away from math and stats into assigning blame which is going to be, of necessity, a political hot-potato. I vote to keep this thread focused on the numbers and data.
Just my opinion. YMMV.
Quote: KeyserPerhaps, but I felt that it was appropriate to mention the CDC and Fauci failure and I feel it's worthy of more discussion.
I felt it appropriate to point out how untrue your statement was.
Leave the politics out of it. Stick to discussing and presenting statistics. Thanks. Take the other over to DT if you must make those type comments.
