Coronavirus math
Quote: darkoz
As for cigarettes many states have been adding more and more restrictions to indoor dining precisely because it kills others. So, yes, shut down the smoking at least where it affects others who are non-smokers.
Or just inform patrons that smoking is allowed and allow the non-smokers to determine if they want to go in or not.
Quote: darkozSo planes didn't crash into the world trade center?
If a crash is intentional it doesn't qualify as a crash?
Only accidental crashes are crashes?
The example was of an accidental crash. So no, this does not count. Same as it does not count against any kind of safety investigation, etc. by the NTSB.
Quote:As for cigarettes many states have been adding more and more restrictions to indoor dining precisely because it kills others. So, yes, shut down the smoking at least where it affects others who are non-smokers.
But cigarettes kill people. Shouldn't we all stay home until a safe cigarette is found by your standards? People might die!
Quote: SOOPOO
The argument should be on what our response should have been. Both my self evident facts, true as they are, do not tell us how much we should destroy the economy in the name of mitigating the spread of COVID-19.
There's never been any support that any new airborne virus should have been taken so lightly in the first place that apparently no one ever made any sophisticated plan to deal with the economic fallout and other what-ifs that would occur beyond the spot tracing and kill stage in dealing with it.
Just makes me angry.
Quote: rxwineThere's never been any support that any new airborne virus should have been taken so lightly in the first place that apparently no one ever made any sophisticated plan to deal with the economic fallout and other what-ifs that would occur beyond the spot tracing and kill stage in dealing with it.
Just makes me angry.
You cannot cause a depression every time a new virus comes out. And you cannot look backwards with 20/20 vision and say what should have been done when things were not known. You are in effect saying the same thing as saying the WTC should have been closed on 9/11/01 because "we heard a rumor."
Quote: billryan1400 plus deaths yesterday, with over 50,000 new infections.
Someone in Sierra Vista posted they tested positive for the CV anti-bodies. She said she was deathly sick a week or two before Christmas and insists she had the virus then. Her 67 year old neighbor died the same week, he had a stroke and a heart attack while fighting off a very bad flu.
"ABC News reported that US intelligence officials were warning about the coronavirus in a report prepared in November by the American military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence. Trump administration ignored it."
So it is possible COVID-19 was in the USA in December 2019 without anybody knowing.
Quote: ChumpChange"ABC News reported that US intelligence officials were warning about the coronavirus in a report prepared in November by the American military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence. Trump administration ignored it."
So it is possible COVID-19 was in the USA in December 2019 without anybody knowing.
Many things are possible. Intel warns about all kinds of things. You do not act on every warning. Most you file under "watch" and see if they are anything.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou cannot cause a depression every time a new virus comes out. And you cannot look backwards with 20/20 vision and say what should have been done when things were not known. You are in effect saying the same thing as saying the WTC should have been closed on 9/11/01 because "we heard a rumor."
1)We aren't in a depression
2) every virus is different. Decisions should be made on the circumstances of the novel virus. I don't understand why you keep insisting all viruses are equal.
Quote: darkoz1)We aren't in a depression
We came awful close. And if we stay locked down we will be in one. Then you will actually have something to worry about.
Quote:2) every virus is different. Decisions should be made on the circumstances of the novel virus. I don't understand why you keep insisting all viruses are equal.
Decisions are made as information is found. You do not lock a country down on a bunch of maybes. You do try to keep the population calm. Your reactions to this virus is exactly why you downplay threats early on.
Quote: AZDuffmanWe came awful close. And if we stay locked down we will be in one. Then you will actually have something to worry about.
Decisions are made as information is found. You do not lock a country down on a bunch of maybes. You do try to keep the population calm. Your reactions to this virus is exactly why you downplay threats early on.
While COVID-19 is new Coronavirus is not and certainly plague is not.
Your suggestion is to ignore all past precedent and just have a devil-may-care attitude. Country bedamned.
Quote: AZDuffman
Decisions are made as information is found. You do not lock a country down on a bunch of maybes. You do try to keep the population calm. Your reactions to this virus is exactly why you downplay threats early on.
Leaders remain calm. But downplaying facts that matter is a fool's advice. If you observe people walking calmly out of a burning building who aren't walking fast enough to avoid getting trapped or burned alive you tell them to "run". You don't summarize later, "they died, but at least I didn't cause a panic".
Quote: rxwineLeaders remain calm. But downplaying facts that matter is a fool's advice. If you observe people walking calmly out of a burning building who aren't walking fast enough to avoid getting trapped or burned alive you tell them to "run". You don't summarize later, "they died, but at least I didn't cause a panic".
I'm pretty certain AZ would say, "take those kerchiefs and masks from off your face. Be free Americans and breathe in the fire fumes and smoke
"Don't let scientists tell you whether it's safe to breathe fire smoke. If you have diabetes or other health conditions it's not the fire killing you. We all die someday"
Quote: SOOPOOGreat post. AZ has an agenda, which is to downplay the risks of COVID-19, and to laud the drug Trump trumpeted. It is clear by any objective person analyzing the available data that there is no statistically significant evidence that zinc/chloroquin is helpful. That of course does not rule out the possibility that it IS helpful. But if it is, it will not be a game changer. And AZ continually lowers the number of Covid-19 deaths by a ridiculous factor, because it suits his agenda, not because it is even close to being true.
These truths are self evident. COVID-19 is responsible for 100,000+ deaths in the USA. Most of the dead were old and sick already. But most were not on death's door yet.
The death rate for infected individuals is much lower than reported, as we don't know how many totally asymptomatic individuals were infected.
The argument should be on what our response should have been. Both my self evident facts, true as they are, do not tell us how much we should destroy the economy in the name of mitigating the spread of COVID-19.
I would think the first option would be to copy what other countries did -- namely more stringent lockdowns for 60-90 days. That pretty much got the virus under control across the board. New Zealand basically eliminated it with a harsh 75-day lockdown.
When the questions of economic damage come up, the question that doesn't usually get asked is why the U.S. should be considered more vulnerable, more fragile economically than Italy or Spain or South Korea or New Zealand and be unable to handle a lockdown sufficient to stamp down the virus. What is it about the U.S. economy that renders it so fragile? Or is "the economy will die" just an excuse to preserve the wealth of the top two percent who own 90% of the stocks? That's the question, and the U.S. better come up with an answer because this will not be the last pandemic in our lifetimes. The head of the South Korea infectious disease institute was asked when he expects the next one. His answer was four or five years, and he hopes to be retired by then.
Quote: rxwineLeaders remain calm. But downplaying facts that matter is a fool's advice. If you observe people walking calmly out of a burning building who aren't walking fast enough to avoid getting trapped or burned alive you tell them to "run". You don't summarize later, "they died, but at least I didn't cause a panic".
The first thing you do when there is a fire is tell people not to panic. Especially when the fire is small. I have been in several fire evacuations in my life. The rule was to leave orderly.
Quote: darkozWhile COVID-19 is new Coronavirus is not and certainly plague is not.
Your suggestion is to ignore all past precedent and just have a devil-may-care attitude. Country bedamned.
My suggestion is to monitor the situation and take action when needed. With the virus only having killed 8,000 or so healthy people so far we did not need to destroy the economy. Those who had multiple other factors, i.e. the rest of the deaths, could have taken precautions on their own.
I look at it like an advantage player would look at it.
Quote: ChumpChangeThis pandemic could wipe out most towns in 2-3 months if everybody jumped on the herd immunity train, but then they'd get it again because there is no immunity.
You base this on what exactly?
99% of people who get it do not die. So how will it wipe towns out?
Day 1: 10 cases
Day 10: 100 cases
Day 20: 1,000 cases
Day 30: 10,000 cases
Day 40: 100,000 cases
Day 50: 1 million cases
Day 60: 10 million cases.
We've escaped this onslaught due to state lockdowns in mid-March. 3-6 weeks later there were 10's of thousands of cases per day, and we're still there despite the lockdowns. There's over 6 million cases known, and there's not enough testing going on because the Federal Gov't has failed.
Frankly AZDuffman, I'm just about done writing to you about this subject. Don't ask my opinion anymore, and I'll have to ignore your opinion.
Quote: ChumpChange15%-20% of those who get COVID-19 go to the hospital, if the hospitals are closed because of deadly pandemic panic, those 15%-20% will likely die. My county, and the country of Mexico have a 10% fatality rate. The rate of spread could go up by a factor of 10 every 10 days like what happened in NYC at the beginning.
Day 1: 10 cases
Day 10: 100 cases
Day 20: 1,000 cases
Day 30: 10,000 cases
Day 40: 100,000 cases
Day 50: 1 million cases
Day 60: 10 million cases.
We've escaped this onslaught due to state lockdowns in mid-March. 3-6 weeks later there were 10's of thousands of cases per day, and we're still there despite the lockdowns. There's over 6 million cases known, and there's not enough testing going on because the Federal Gov't has failed.
Frankly AZDuffman, I'm just about done writing to you about this subject. Don't ask my opinion anymore, and I'll have to ignore your opinion.
You say there are 6MM cases which shows your "factor of 10" to be false. We are at about day 200 and you said there are only 6 million cases. By your numbers there by day 90 there would be 10 billion cases, IOW the entire planet would have had it and then some.
With only 20 people per state dying per day we really do not need so much more testing. In fact the curve has been flattened as deaths have been level for months now. Time to open up based on that standard.
I have not asked your opinion, I have merely shared mine. You want to stay in your house. I want to live a normal life.
Time to end the lockdowns and open up. Get rid of the mask rules. Let herd immunity do its job.
Quote: unJonBased on the news I’m seeing, people holding up other countries as having successfully defeated Coronavirus is very stale. Looks like some European countries are having a bad “second wave.”
Said places were probably not over counting deaths in the first place.
Quote: AZDuffmanWith the virus only having killed 8,000 or so healthy people so far we did not need to destroy the economy.
If you care so much about economic damage have you changed your position on getting vaccinated?
Quote:the total economic burden of flu includes not just the cost of disease treatment, but also the impact of the millions of resulting sick days and thousands of lives lost, costing the United States ~$87 billion every year. Therefore, the 60% of adults who aren’t vaccinated against the flu and the almost 80% of adults who aren’t fully vaccinated against other diseases are really expensive.
http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2018/vaccination-just-health/
Quote: rxwineIf you care so much about economic damage have you changed your position on getting vaccinated?
Was thinking the same thing.
Same people who are anti-maskers are also anti-vaxxers and anti-closures.
People just dreaming that the pandemic doesn't exist and the world can just go back to normal pre-pandemic.
Quote: rxwineIf you care so much about economic damage have you changed your position on getting vaccinated?
I do not intend to get one. Risk of vax is greater than risk of virus.
But if you get one then you will be safe, right?
Quote: AZDuffmanI do not intend to get one. Risk of vax is greater than risk of virus.
But if you get one then you will be safe, right?
Feel free to put your money where your mouth is. No corona vaccine approved for the entire US public will be worse than the overall effects of the virus. Not even the rushed out version.
Quote: RogerKintVegas bars reopening Sunday. God help us all 😉😉
Someone is forcing you to go to a bar?
Quote: rxwineFeel free to put your money where your mouth is. No corona vaccine approved for the entire US public will be worse than the overall effects of the virus. Not even the rushed out version.
I'll let you be the guinea pig. If no side effects then I will consider getting it. With a 99% survival rate I am not worried.
Quote: AZDuffmanSomeone is forcing you to go to a bar?
I'm joking. The worshippers of evolution refuse to let it happen.
#swedenwasright
#letfreedomring
Quote: rxwineFeel free to put your money where your mouth is. No corona vaccine approved for the entire US public will be worse than the overall effects of the virus. Not even the rushed out version.
To be fair, I really don’t think it’s anti-vax or anti-science to be extremely cautious about a new vaccine, especially when rushed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/health/russia-covid-19-vaccine-safety.html
I will personally be waiting at least a year after one is approved.
Quote: gamerfreakTo be fair, I really don’t think it’s anti-vax or anti-science to be extremely cautious about a new vaccine, especially when rushed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/health/russia-covid-19-vaccine-safety.html
I will personally be waiting at least a year after one is approved.
We aren't in Russia (last I checked)
I'm willing to put money up that the US won't approve a vaccine worse than the virus. I worded that carefully. I said approved for the entire US population. Or at least as much as the flu shot is. It can't be in any preliminary testing stage at all.
That's not a stretch even with Duffman's low ball numbers of 8000 dead.
If he believes what he says, let him bet. He obviously doesn't want my money. LOL.
Quote: ChumpChangeDr. Fauci was just on TV to say the big spreaders are bars, restaurants, and gyms. He supports keeping them closed or at reduced capacity. I'd bring my own mug if I went to a bar, but that might be too many fluid ounces to count at a price. Guess it's red Solo cup time.
A mug? For what? Weren't we all supposed to be dead by August?
Quote: DeMangoAccording to the numbers we should all have been dead twice over.
From a 1% mortality rate?
I think RogerKint was referring to ChumpChange's numbers. The numbers in his predictions have suggested that everyone on the planet would be dead by July.Quote: darkozFrom a 1% mortality rate?
Quote: darkozFrom a 1% mortality rate?
No, from the Chumpsters prognostications over the last 6 months.
Quote: DeMangoNo, from the Chumpsters prognostications over the last 6 months.
What procrastination?
What are you talking about?
The death rate has not moved up in months.
Quote: DeMangoNo, from the Chumpsters prognostications over the last 6 months.
Not to mention one person would infect 45. Not going to look back to see if he was responsible for that whopper too!
PROGNOSTICATIONS, AZ!
Quote: DeMangoNot to mention one person would infect 45. Not going to look back to see if he was responsible for that whopper too!
PROGNOSTICATIONS, AZ!
That's hardly a whopper. It's occurred a few times.
Here is one instance they traced over 100 people infected by just one person
https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/it-only-takes-one-person-multiple-people-infected-with-coronavirus-after-suffolk-county-party
Unless you plan now on arguing contact tracing has no science behind it either
2019 death rate from all causes in US was 732 per 100,000 consistent with prior years. Assume 330 M people in U.S. So US deaths in 2019 was 2,415,600 approx.
Which is approx. 200,000+ deaths per month in 2019 from all causes
330,000,000 people is a lot of people.
The federal government has a $100 billion fund that reimburses Covid-19 health costs by
- paying an additional 20% on top of traditional Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients during the public health emergency,
- and by reimbursing hospitals for treating the uninsured patients with the disease (at that enhanced Medicare rate).
Sure, there are cases where obese Aunt Becky gets covid, checks into a hospital and dies 10 days later.
But each month there are over 100,000 people dying from other non-covid medical conditions.
Given that hospitals gain money (+20%) for each covid death, doesn't it seem likely that some of the 100,000+/month dying patients are being labeled as 'suspected covid due to exposure history" and Covid-19 is being written on their death certificate, along with the real causes of death ?
Heck you could take the homeless person who is about to die from lung failure, and park their gurney next to a covid patient for 15 minutes, and then legitimately claim that he is suspected of having covid. Ka-ching! goes the cash register.
Can anyone claim that they are sure that this hasn't happened? That it isn't continuing to happen to some extent?
It's my understanding that the USofA has recorded some 250,000 excess deaths so far this year. How would you explain those?
But yeah, I could have a 90% chance of dying if I get COVID-19, but if I never get it I'll be good until the Zombie Apocalypse, which could be imminent.
Quote: gordonm888Here's some statistics:
2019 death rate from all causes in US was 732 per 100,000 consistent with prior years. Assume 330 M people in U.S. So US deaths in 2019 was 2,415,600 approx.
Which is approx. 200,000+ deaths per month in 2019 from all causes
330,000,000 people is a lot of people.
The federal government has a $100 billion fund that reimburses Covid-19 health costs by
- paying an additional 20% on top of traditional Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients during the public health emergency,
- and by reimbursing hospitals for treating the uninsured patients with the disease (at that enhanced Medicare rate).
Sure, there are cases where obese Aunt Becky gets covid, checks into a hospital and dies 10 days later.
But each month there are over 100,000 people dying from other non-covid medical conditions.
Given that hospitals gain money (+20%) for each covid death, doesn't it seem likely that some of the 100,000+/month dying patients are being labeled as 'suspected covid due to exposure history" and Covid-19 is being written on their death certificate, along with the real causes of death ?
Heck you could take the homeless person who is about to die from lung failure, and park their gurney next to a covid patient for 15 minutes, and then legitimately claim that he is suspected of having covid. Ka-ching! goes the cash register.
Can anyone claim that they are sure that this hasn't happened? That it isn't continuing to happen to some extent?
Interestingly the motorcycle incident both proves and disproves your supposition.
If a guy dies by motorcycle accident who has covid and is classified as a covid death then that shows there may be abuse.
On the other hand the fact it was quickly uncovered and reversed shows that it is highly unlikely people will get away with such shenanigans.
ANY FINANCIAL INCENTIVE PROGRAM WILL RESULT IN SOME ABUSE/FRAUD!
That's simply a fact. From disaster relief to insurance fraud to stocks.
Powers that be are supposed to put in checks and balances (with Covid-19 I think testing of blood by independent laboratories and medical records probably does it).
Discrediting an entire range of service because of some small fraud (technically not even proven on a mass scale yet) just doesn't make sense.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/national-human-disaster-looms-as-utility-shutoff-moratoriums-come-to-an-end-across-us/
Quote: billryanWhen accusing an entire industry of widespread fraud, I think you need something a little stronger than can anyone be sure this isn't happening?
It's my understanding that the USofA has recorded some 250,000 excess deaths so far this year. How would you explain those?
As usual, billryan's accusatory post blasts me for something I did not say. I did not "accuse an entire industry of widespread fraud." Billryan continues to be the rule-breaker of this forum by smearing people by associating them with outrageous statements that they have never said.
What I did is point out that the federal government has inadvertently created a financial incentive for hospitals to mis-represent the cause of death, especially for the homeless and uninsured, and that there is plenty of opportunity to do so because deaths from other causes far outweighs the deaths from Covid. I then asked if anyone had a basis for claiming this has never happened.
The fact that so many large corporations applied for (and received) the federal funds earmarked for small companies is an example of the willingness of industry to take advantage of the rules in the interest of getting money.
Regarding excess deaths, I haven't studied that issue. I have heard that deaths due to cancer are higher than normal and deaths due to violence and suicide are also higher. But I haven't studied those numbers.
