AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 15th, 2020 at 6:23:48 AM permalink
I forget the conversation that brought it up and I used the term "surreal" causing my dad to ask what the word meant. I explained it was when what was going on felt more like you were watching movie of it going on than actually living it. We are in that feeling right now.

If it were not for the news 99.9% of us would not have an idea something was about. That is usually the case. But the weirdness is just all about.

People seem very split. Some thinking the world is ending. Others just go on about, still others "stand up" and intentionally going about to show nothing is wrong. The last group is hard to be in as anywhere you can go is closing.

Grocery stores are in a classic trap. As late as Monday, empty store pics were being"staged" by the media. But it scared enough people to actually empty some shelves. That makes regular folk like myself pick up 1-2 extras of some things just because so much is empty. Then it keeps feeding. The supply chain will fill in 1-2 weeks, but if a person only has enough to thrive for 1 week (Freezers are only so big) they will go out now.

Meanwhile, in 99% of the USA it is a waiting game. You might want to party with the time off, but nowhere to go. It might hit, or this might be an elaborate media exaggeration that got completely out of hand. On Monday, if your place is not closed you have to go back to work. I suggested to my boss this must be what the Phony War period of 1939-40 was like in Europe.

We get these every now and then. Cuban Missile Crisis. 9/11 attacks. To a lesser extend 2008 Financial Crisis. It will end by April, but you will have something to tell the next generation about.

DISCUSS.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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BTLWI
March 15th, 2020 at 7:47:51 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It will end by April, but you will have something to tell the next generation about.



Eater of Worlds
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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March 15th, 2020 at 8:06:47 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I forget the conversation that brought it up and I used the term "surreal" causing my dad to ask what the word meant. I explained it was when what was going on felt more like you were watching movie of it going on than actually living it. We are in that feeling right now.

If it were not for the news 99.9% of us would not have an idea something was about. That is usually the case. But the weirdness is just all about.

People seem very split. Some thinking the world is ending. Others just go on about, still others "stand up" and intentionally going about to show nothing is wrong. The last group is hard to be in as anywhere you can go is closing.

Grocery stores are in a classic trap. As late as Monday, empty store pics were being"staged" by the media. But it scared enough people to actually empty some shelves. That makes regular folk like myself pick up 1-2 extras of some things just because so much is empty. Then it keeps feeding. The supply chain will fill in 1-2 weeks, but if a person only has enough to thrive for 1 week (Freezers are only so big) they will go out now.

Meanwhile, in 99% of the USA it is a waiting game. You might want to party with the time off, but nowhere to go. It might hit, or this might be an elaborate media exaggeration that got completely out of hand. On Monday, if your place is not closed you have to go back to work. I suggested to my boss this must be what the Phony War period of 1939-40 was like in Europe.

We get these every now and then. Cuban Missile Crisis. 9/11 attacks. To a lesser extend 2008 Financial Crisis. It will end by April, but you will have something to tell the next generation about.

DISCUSS.



The world war didn't start till 1941?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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bobbartop
March 15th, 2020 at 8:30:52 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

The world war didn't start till 1941?



Germany invaded Poland in Sept 1939. France and Britain declared war within the week. But they were not mobilized and Germany was busy cleaning up in the east. That winter they were "at war" but no real action. It was called "Phony War." It would soon change, especially for France, but the first few months were quiet, much as it is now in most of the USA where nobody is sick.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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March 15th, 2020 at 8:41:28 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Germany invaded Poland in Sept 1939. France and Britain declared war within the week. But they were not mobilized and Germany was busy cleaning up in the east. That winter they were "at war" but no real action. It was called "Phony War." It would soon change, especially for France, but the first few months were quiet, much as it is now in most of the USA where nobody is sick.



The point of prevention is to not get sick

You seem to imply it's only a crisis after everyone has contracted the virus

As with being on the tracks with a speeding locomotive, saying it's safe because you don't see the train is meaningless. When you see it, you're already dead
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 15th, 2020 at 8:44:12 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

The point of prevention is to not get sick

You seem to imply it's only a crisis after everyone has contracted the virus

As with being on the tracks with a speeding locomotive, saying it's safe because you don't see the train is meaningless. When you see it, you're already dead



It is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
darkoz
darkoz
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March 15th, 2020 at 9:02:10 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.



Watch this video. We don't want what happened in china to happen here
https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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March 15th, 2020 at 9:04:12 AM permalink
My Wife is so not worried about this. However, she has now pissed me off due to her unwillingness want to prepare properly with food supplies and stop going to the store(she likes fresh fruits and vegetables and buying stuff on sale). I'm Certainly not paranoid about it, but we have the means to buy more than we need and we don't have to worry about a paycheck coming in. I tried to explain to her that we're in a fortunate position so we should take advantage of that and prepare just in case, what harm could actually do, so what, we have a bunch of extra food and supplies? Her response was all that stuff will be on sale in the future and we don't need more stuff cramming up the garage. She's acting as if I'm talking crazy(not sure why, cuz I haven't actually taken any actions)

I Keep on trying to explain to her it doesn't matter what we think or what the reality is, it's what other people think and do that could cause a major problem. And there's just no reason for us to take unnecessary risks;

Obviously, I'm going to do what I think is best for both of us with or without her help, I just wish she would take a little more seriously than she is at this time. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Minty
Minty
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March 15th, 2020 at 9:25:08 AM permalink
That does sound frustrating. Yeah, the split is evident. Social media is blowing up about it, but others are clearly unconcerned. My mom just doesn't want to hear about it anymore. My Fiance still wants us to travel to the Caribbean soon with some of her family even though her dad has cancer and I've been in many casinos over the last month. I think I'm more concerned than she is, but her family is taking the approach of "well nobody in the Caribbean seems to have it, so everything should be fine!" Might be a thing such as too much optimism.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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darkozBTLWI
March 15th, 2020 at 9:44:12 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.


I have to say I'm a bit surprised to see a number of folks on this forum taking this view. The issue is, when you boil it down, all about risk-reward management and the application of probability and statistics to making optimal choices. The probabilistic models for the flu and for COVI-19 are very very different. That's why we have the big reaction on the part of public health officials. When you take an approach of "well nothing has happened so far with COVID-19 so why worry" it's sort of equivalent to ignoring the count in BJ. Focus on what the prediction and odds going forward are and then bet accordingly.

P.S. I do however agree 100% about the surreal aspect of the whole thing
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.

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