The Surreal Feeling About
If it were not for the news 99.9% of us would not have an idea something was about. That is usually the case. But the weirdness is just all about.
People seem very split. Some thinking the world is ending. Others just go on about, still others "stand up" and intentionally going about to show nothing is wrong. The last group is hard to be in as anywhere you can go is closing.
Grocery stores are in a classic trap. As late as Monday, empty store pics were being"staged" by the media. But it scared enough people to actually empty some shelves. That makes regular folk like myself pick up 1-2 extras of some things just because so much is empty. Then it keeps feeding. The supply chain will fill in 1-2 weeks, but if a person only has enough to thrive for 1 week (Freezers are only so big) they will go out now.
Meanwhile, in 99% of the USA it is a waiting game. You might want to party with the time off, but nowhere to go. It might hit, or this might be an elaborate media exaggeration that got completely out of hand. On Monday, if your place is not closed you have to go back to work. I suggested to my boss this must be what the Phony War period of 1939-40 was like in Europe.
We get these every now and then. Cuban Missile Crisis. 9/11 attacks. To a lesser extend 2008 Financial Crisis. It will end by April, but you will have something to tell the next generation about.
DISCUSS.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt will end by April, but you will have something to tell the next generation about.
Quote: AZDuffmanI forget the conversation that brought it up and I used the term "surreal" causing my dad to ask what the word meant. I explained it was when what was going on felt more like you were watching movie of it going on than actually living it. We are in that feeling right now.
If it were not for the news 99.9% of us would not have an idea something was about. That is usually the case. But the weirdness is just all about.
People seem very split. Some thinking the world is ending. Others just go on about, still others "stand up" and intentionally going about to show nothing is wrong. The last group is hard to be in as anywhere you can go is closing.
Grocery stores are in a classic trap. As late as Monday, empty store pics were being"staged" by the media. But it scared enough people to actually empty some shelves. That makes regular folk like myself pick up 1-2 extras of some things just because so much is empty. Then it keeps feeding. The supply chain will fill in 1-2 weeks, but if a person only has enough to thrive for 1 week (Freezers are only so big) they will go out now.
Meanwhile, in 99% of the USA it is a waiting game. You might want to party with the time off, but nowhere to go. It might hit, or this might be an elaborate media exaggeration that got completely out of hand. On Monday, if your place is not closed you have to go back to work. I suggested to my boss this must be what the Phony War period of 1939-40 was like in Europe.
We get these every now and then. Cuban Missile Crisis. 9/11 attacks. To a lesser extend 2008 Financial Crisis. It will end by April, but you will have something to tell the next generation about.
DISCUSS.
The world war didn't start till 1941?
Quote: darkozThe world war didn't start till 1941?
Germany invaded Poland in Sept 1939. France and Britain declared war within the week. But they were not mobilized and Germany was busy cleaning up in the east. That winter they were "at war" but no real action. It was called "Phony War." It would soon change, especially for France, but the first few months were quiet, much as it is now in most of the USA where nobody is sick.
Quote: AZDuffmanGermany invaded Poland in Sept 1939. France and Britain declared war within the week. But they were not mobilized and Germany was busy cleaning up in the east. That winter they were "at war" but no real action. It was called "Phony War." It would soon change, especially for France, but the first few months were quiet, much as it is now in most of the USA where nobody is sick.
The point of prevention is to not get sick
You seem to imply it's only a crisis after everyone has contracted the virus
As with being on the tracks with a speeding locomotive, saying it's safe because you don't see the train is meaningless. When you see it, you're already dead
Quote: darkozThe point of prevention is to not get sick
You seem to imply it's only a crisis after everyone has contracted the virus
As with being on the tracks with a speeding locomotive, saying it's safe because you don't see the train is meaningless. When you see it, you're already dead
It is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.
Watch this video. We don't want what happened in china to happen here
https://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU
I Keep on trying to explain to her it doesn't matter what we think or what the reality is, it's what other people think and do that could cause a major problem. And there's just no reason for us to take unnecessary risks;
Obviously, I'm going to do what I think is best for both of us with or without her help, I just wish she would take a little more seriously than she is at this time. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quote: AZDuffmanIt is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.
I have to say I'm a bit surprised to see a number of folks on this forum taking this view. The issue is, when you boil it down, all about risk-reward management and the application of probability and statistics to making optimal choices. The probabilistic models for the flu and for COVI-19 are very very different. That's why we have the big reaction on the part of public health officials. When you take an approach of "well nothing has happened so far with COVID-19 so why worry" it's sort of equivalent to ignoring the count in BJ. Focus on what the prediction and odds going forward are and then bet accordingly.
P.S. I do however agree 100% about the surreal aspect of the whole thing
Quote: TumblingBonesI have to say I'm a bit surprised to see a number of folks on this forum taking this view. The issue is, when you boil it down, all about risk-reward management and the application of probability and statistics to making optimal choices. The probabilistic models for the flu and for COVI-19 are very very different. That's why we have the big reaction on the part of public health officials. When you take an approach of "well nothing has happened so far with COVID-19 so why worry" it's sort of equivalent to ignoring the count in BJ. Focus on what the prediction and odds going forward are and then bet accordingly.
P.S. I do however agree 100% about the sureal aspect of the whole thing
I would thank you twice if I could
Quote: Carnac the MagnificentA 10+yr jihad of anti intellectualism and science denial
Quote: AZDuffmanI maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.
If after 3 weeks or so, we are not seeing that big spike, I would expect a bit more relaxed standards. But not too much as the virus will still be circulating.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.
Because people are carriers and can transmit the disease BEFORE they even feel sick.
Because it is 10 x as fatal as the flu (estimate) on a case by case basis.
Because we have seen a country run out of ventilators! (Italy)
Because modern medicine has created an unprecedented number of 'at risk' individuals.... over 60, diabetic, immunocompromised. So everyone has someone close they are worrying about.
She was fairly supportive today when I came home with a bunch of stuff. She said she just bought a bunch of stuff that I bought, and the tortillas I choose had way too many calories she would probably never eat them.I said that was her fault for not going with me in the first place. I bought a big thing of mayonnaise and she said, "You know we get mayonnaise basically for free and we have a bunch of them right?"Quote: MintyThat does sound frustrating. Yeah, the split is evident. Social media is blowing up about it, but others are clearly unconcerned. My mom just doesn't want to hear about it anymore. My Fiance still wants us to travel to the Caribbean soon with some of her family even though her dad has cancer and I've been in many casinos over the last month. I think I'm more concerned than she is, but her family is taking the approach of "well nobody in the Caribbean seems to have it, so everything should be fine!" Might be a thing such as too much optimism.
Quote: SOOPOOBecause people are carriers and can transmit the disease BEFORE they even feel sick.
Because it is 10 x as fatal as the flu (estimate) on a case by case basis.
Because we have seen a country run out of ventilators! (Italy)
Because modern medicine has created an unprecedented number of 'at risk' individuals.... over 60, diabetic, immunocompromised.
Louder, for the people in back.
Quote: SOOPSo everyone has someone close they are worrying about.
84yr old grandma with pacemaker and skin cancer. Mama is primary caregiver, so can't go there. Aunt has COPD. Pops is prepping for an organ donation for my diabetic, double amputee uncle. I'm the sole caregiver for my cancer stricken g/f, who doesn't have a stitch of family on the planet save her 8yr old son. And I'm a mailman. I'm a long f#$%ing walk from "worried".
I offer this mostly as an apology for my sarcasm earlier. I do not think I am capable of panic, but I damn sure am hyped.
Any word on where in our county it's been confirmed? Not that it matters because I assume that everyone has been exposed, but... ya know... lie to me. TIA.
Quote: Face
Any word on where in our county it's been confirmed? Not that it matters because I assume that everyone has been exposed, but... ya know... lie to me. TIA.
One of the best and easiest ways to track the spread is with the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center's Interactive Map. The only problem with it is the resolution of locations. For the U.S. it's at the state level. If I recall correctly, you're in NY State. The map will show (at the moment) 729 total case for the state. But NY is big so that doesn't necessarily reassure you it's not in your neighbourhood. To go deeper you need the underlying dataset. I didn't see a link for it on the JHU site but there is one available from Kaggle, a web-site for folks who are in to data mining and AI/ML). The 'Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset' is being updated daily. You can download the entire file or view it via Google Docs. Keep in mind this isn't an "official" data set but something being maintained by a Kaggle contributor so it doesn't have all 162k cases.
As of 17 hours ago (i.e., time of last update) the bulk of the NY cases are apparently in Westchester or LI. I saw one in Albany, one in Monroe Co (i.e., Rochester) and one in Rockland County. The caveat however is that a high percentage of the cases simple say "New York" without any added detail.
Hope this helps. Ultimately, your best bet is your county health dept. Mine just reported this AM a local family that has confirmed cases.
EDIT: after posting this I looked around for a better data set and found the Harvard Dataverse site which has a "US COVID-19 Daily Cases with Basemap". I haven't had a chance to look at the data yet but it says it has county-level data.
what do they think is going to happen on March 27?
a miracle?
Quote: TumblingBonesOne of the best and easiest ways to track the spread is with the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center's Interactive Map. The only problem with it is the resolution of locations. For the U.S. it's at the state level. If I recall correctly, you're in NY State. The map will show (at the moment) 729 total case for the state. But NY is big so that doesn't necessarily reassure you it's not in your neighbourhood. To go deeper you need the underlying dataset. I didn't see a link for it on the JHU site but there is one available from Kaggle, a web-site for folks who are in to data mining and AI/ML). The 'Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset' is being updated daily. You can download the entire file or view it via Google Docs. Keep in mind this isn't an "official" data set but something being maintained by a Kaggle contributor so it doesn't have all 162k cases.
As of 17 hours ago (i.e., time of last update) the bulk of the NY cases are apparently in Westchester or LI. I saw one in Albany, one in Monroe Co (i.e., Rochester) and one in Rockland County. The caveat however is that a high percentage of the cases simple say "New York" without any added detail.
Hope this helps. Ultimately, your best bet is your county health dept. Mine just reported this AM a local family that has confirmed cases.
EDIT: after posting this I looked around for a better data set and found the Harvard Dataverse site which has a "US COVID-19 Daily Cases with Basemap". I haven't had a chance to look at the data yet but it says it has county-level data.
Quote: lilredroosterwhere I live they've closed the public schools and libraries until March 27
what do they think is going to happen on March 27?
a miracle?
2 weeks incubation period is close to over
well, the virus is rocking and rolling in Singapore
today, Singapore hit 86 degrees Fahrenheit
Quote: TumblingBonesOne of the best and easiest ways to track the spread is with the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center's Interactive Map. The only problem with it is the resolution of locations.
Thanks for the effort.
The resolution is the same problem I had searching myself. Everything's broad strokes with the highest detail being county. I was looking more township level, admittedly as a way to cope and nothing more. The rational part of my mind has been saying it's here since the first confirmation in Westchester last week.
I thank you for the other sources, too
SURREAL!
Might as well have a bank runQuote: AZDuffmanFed funds rate is now zero. That means free money. They could go negative but that is unlikely,
SURREAL!
Quote: Face
Any word on where in our county it's been confirmed? Not that it matters because I assume that everyone has been exposed, but... ya know... lie to me. TIA.
One in Clarence. One in City of Buffalo. One on Grand Island. But frankly, that information is irrelevant. Two of them had recently traveled to known hot spots. One they haven't a clue. 3 positive tests yesterday. I'll bet 50 by the end of the week. Every local municipality will have some soon. I wish I was a dictator. I would not let my wife go to work tomorrow.
Quote: SOOPOOOne in Clarence. One in City of Buffalo. One on Grand Island. But frankly, that information is irrelevant. Two of them had recently traveled to known hot spots. One they haven't a clue. 3 positive tests yesterday. I'll bet 50 by the end of the week. Every local municipality will have some soon. I wish I was a dictator. I would not let my wife go to work tomorrow.
You think dictator's wives listen to them?
cutting rates has historically boosted the markets and spurred investment
but I really doubt cutting the rate from zero to minus .25% is going to thrill anybody
several European countries and Japan already have negative interest rates
Quote: lilredroosterif the rates go to zero the Fed takes the tool out of their toolkit
cutting rates has historically boosted the markets and spurred investment
but I really doubt cutting the rate from zero to minus .25% is going to thrill anybody
several European countries and Japan already have negative interest rates
But it is about funding things. Assuming Jamie Dimon is recovered he walks to the Fed window and borrowed $500 billion, He walks down the street and buys T-Bills, and other government instruments. Same as in 2008-9.
Quote: AxelWolf
I Keep on trying to explain to her
Why? I would explain once and go
do it. It's supplies, not a risk venture.
That she's opposed in ludicrous.
Now they're saying that you shouldn't congregate in groups of 10 or more. I'm waiting for martial law to be declared and for everyone to be kept in their on home.
#1. About 80% of the US population gets infected with COVID-19, either over one month or over 7-8 months. There are > 1 million deaths of elderly people and people with underlying conditions. Eventually the US population gains immunity and the virus stops spreading.
#2 The shutdowns and social distancing work to contain the spread of the disease. <20,000 deaths. We continue to lock down our borders and we develop a vaccine.
We all want #2, none of us can be certain that its possible. I want to work to give #2 scenario a chance, but if it goes the way of #1 I want my wife and I to be in the 20% that don't get infected by the disease.
******************************
The difference between this disease and influenza and SARs, etc. : Covid-19 is highly transmissible!!! And Covid-19 is 10x more lethal than flu on average. The "on average' qualifier is important; the COVID-19 is less lethal than influenza for young people but is much greater than 10X more lethal than influenza for old people. Fatality rates of 5-13% for elderly people in China, and rumors that the rates are even higher in Europe. So, older Americans are extremely concerned.
Quote: gordonm888Fatality rates of 5-13% for elderly people.
So an old person's chance of recovery
is 99%, not 99.9%. And for this the world
is shutting down. Insane.
- dying 5 to 13% depending on age and underlying conditions
- - an extended stay in the ICU with tubes inserted everywhere: ~ 15%
- no big deal: 80%
The 15% number assumes of course the hospital facilities are not overwhelmed.
Quote: EvenBobSo an old person's chance of recovery
is 99%, not 99.9%. And for this the world
is shutting down. Insane.
You're probably at some high risk, we know you're not a young person by any means. I'm not sure what the odds of you no longer posting. but they're higher than some of the rest of us. We will lose forum members to this, just a question of whom.
Quote: gordonm888This situation is going to go 1 of 2 ways:...
Those are the only two possibilities?
Quote: LovecompsDo you really need the President of the United States to tell you to wash your hands and stay home when you're sick?
Yes. Many people do. People are ****ing stupid. They don't even wash their hands when they're NOT sick.
And staying home when you're sick is a luxury that a lot of people can't afford. They either have crappy jobs and live paycheck to paycheck, or they would get fired if they tried to stay home.
Quote: gordonm888This situation is going to go 1 of 2 ways:
#1. About 80% of the US population gets infected with COVID-19, either over one month or over 7-8 months. There are > 1 million deaths of elderly people and people with underlying conditions. Eventually the US population gains immunity and the virus stops spreading.
#2 The shutdowns and social distancing work to contain the spread of the disease. <20,000 deaths. We continue to lock down our borders and we develop a vaccine.
We all want #2, none of us can be certain that its possible. I want to work to give #2 scenario a chance, but if it goes the way of #1 I want my wife and I to be in the 20% that don't get infected by the disease.
There is a huge middle ground between those two possibilities. It is possible almost everyone gets this virus. But the longer it is spread out, the better. If it takes 30 months to infect the majority of us, it will be a far smaller burden on our medical system, with better treatments developed over that time, than if it happens within the next few months.
Quote: rxwinePlus there is also a report that even if some people recover they could lose 20% of their lung capacity. This was only reported in China so far.
That's a low quality of life, I hope not. Man, I'd not want to live like that. Odds are I catch it or have already caught it and will be fine. I hope it's not me in denial. Kind of had a nagging cough the last week, yesterday was gasping for breath (unfortunately normal from time to time) and today I'm fine. Hope that was, is it.
You start to wonder if this is what it was like in the crackdown in Poland in the early 80s. Things being closed by order at breakneck speed even if it feels like everything is moving in slow motion. You know that things will return to normal, but when? Groceries are empty in parts, but the supply chain is still moving.
We will have something to tell the next generation.
You're probably correct, but it doesn't matter what you think, it doesn't matter what I think(correct or not), it matters what the masses think and how they react. I'm reacting to how I believe they will react. I would like to get ahead of it just in case before The Snowball Effect really gets big. At this point, I think I've waited too long, I should have prepared two weeks ago. I couldn't find a freezer for sale in Las Vegas after calling about 20 different locations. Most of the places I went to, the canned goods were out. I don't want to have enough for Just 2 weeks and then have to go out and buy more.Quote: LovecompsI'm sorry, but despite what everyone else thinks I believe that this is overblown.
I don't want to have to eat stuff I don't really like either. If it comes down to having to hunker down, I'm good with that(I welcome it), but, I want to be as comfortable as possible while eating and doing what I normally enjoy doing at home.
Quote: onenickelmiracleThere is some doubt about this being real. You see stories on the internet, about China, about some celebrities here and there, but no way to know for sure. People have mentioned it being all a show, "they are hiding something", people say, but, " i don't know what" is the response. There isn't much to see when you do a google search about the topic I've been able to find. There should be something like Alex Jones screaming about a one world order or something, if he is even around anymore. I don't like this social media censorship, it's up to the public to make up their own minds and not be told they're incapable of it. I'm not sure if I want this to be a hoax or not, not sure which would be worse.
There is so much stuff, actual video of the outbreak on YouTube it's impossible you feel this way unless you refuse to look
I can give you a link to an excellent video of it's impact on china if you want
Quote: onenickelmiracleThere is some doubt about this being real. You see stories on the internet, about China, about some celebrities here and there, but no way to know for sure. People have mentioned it being all a show, "they are hiding something", people say, but, " i don't know what" is the response. There isn't much to see when you do a google search about the topic I've been able to find. There should be something like Alex Jones screaming about a one world order or something, if he is even around anymore. I don't like this social media censorship, it's up to the public to make up their own minds and not be told they're incapable of it. I'm not sure if I want this to be a hoax or not, not sure which would be worse.
PT Barnum was correct.
Quote: billryanPT Barnum was correct.
Can I get another answer longer than 4 words Yoda? A sucker is born every minute, ok. Your implication about that?
Quote: onenickelmiracleThat's a low quality of life, I hope not. Man, I'd not want to live like that. Odds are I catch it or have already caught it and will be fine. I hope it's not me in denial. Kind of had a nagging cough the last week, yesterday was gasping for breath (unfortunately normal from time to time) and today I'm fine. Hope that was, is it.
About 3 weeks ago , before this whole thing had really blown up , I had a night where I had a high fever and chills and a runny nose. I just assumed it was the flu or some virus. The next morning I woke up feeling even worse. I rested all day. The morning after that i woke up feeling ok. Now I’m wondering if I had the coronavirus and got over it with just two days of symptoms. My symptoms do match how it’s described as being.
It's possible, but that would mean you were exposed to it 4-6 weeks earlier though. A quick little google search allows for it to be possible on the timeline, but we didn't have anyone dying here then from COVID19. Sigh, probably not the case you had it already. There is some chance you can become reinfected even if you did, even by the same identical strain. Our bodies aren't well prepared to fight this, people google yourself. It's not what you heard or what you know, there might be exceptions to common sense on this one.Quote: michael99000About 3 weeks ago , before this whole thing had really blown up , I had a night where I had a high fever and chills and a runny nose. I just assumed it was the flu or some virus. The next morning I woke up feeling even worse. I rested all day. The morning after that i woke up feeling ok. Now I’m wondering if I had the coronavirus and got over it with just two days of symptoms. My symptoms do match how it’s described as being.
