darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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March 15th, 2020 at 9:46:32 AM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

I have to say I'm a bit surprised to see a number of folks on this forum taking this view. The issue is, when you boil it down, all about risk-reward management and the application of probability and statistics to making optimal choices. The probabilistic models for the flu and for COVI-19 are very very different. That's why we have the big reaction on the part of public health officials. When you take an approach of "well nothing has happened so far with COVID-19 so why worry" it's sort of equivalent to ignoring the count in BJ. Focus on what the prediction and odds going forward are and then bet accordingly.

P.S. I do however agree 100% about the sureal aspect of the whole thing



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rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
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March 15th, 2020 at 9:50:00 AM permalink
You donít see too many nationwide effects for anything. 911 was more intense in one day, but most of the nation could go to school or the store the next.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
Face
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Face
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beachbumbabs
March 15th, 2020 at 10:11:32 AM permalink


Quote: Carnac the Magnificent

A 10+yr jihad of anti intellectualism and science denial






Quote: AZDuffman

I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.

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rxwine
rxwine
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March 15th, 2020 at 10:14:06 AM permalink
The high number of closures and stoppage makes the most sense now, as they are trying to head off the giant spike in cases.

If after 3 weeks or so, we are not seeing that big spike, I would expect a bit more relaxed standards. But not too much as the virus will still be circulating.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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ams288AxelWolfsmoothgrhtringlomane
March 15th, 2020 at 12:57:18 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

It is only a crisis when many people are sick. Before that things are normal. I maintain that either there is something we are not being told or this is the biggest overreaction in history. The flu comes by every year. Why is this the biggest closures of everything since WWII? It is not adding up.



Because people are carriers and can transmit the disease BEFORE they even feel sick.
Because it is 10 x as fatal as the flu (estimate) on a case by case basis.
Because we have seen a country run out of ventilators! (Italy)
Because modern medicine has created an unprecedented number of 'at risk' individuals.... over 60, diabetic, immunocompromised. So everyone has someone close they are worrying about.
billryan
billryan 
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March 15th, 2020 at 1:43:59 PM permalink
At a small gathering around the fire last night, two grandfathers were joking about finally having an excuse not to see their grandkids. They also insist that people in Canada are two weeks away from a vaccine.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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March 15th, 2020 at 2:11:58 PM permalink
Quote: Minty

That does sound frustrating. Yeah, the split is evident. Social media is blowing up about it, but others are clearly unconcerned. My mom just doesn't want to hear about it anymore. My Fiance still wants us to travel to the Caribbean soon with some of her family even though her dad has cancer and I've been in many casinos over the last month. I think I'm more concerned than she is, but her family is taking the approach of "well nobody in the Caribbean seems to have it, so everything should be fine!" Might be a thing such as too much optimism.

She was fairly supportive today when I came home with a bunch of stuff. She said she just bought a bunch of stuff that I bought, and the tortillas I choose had way too many calories she would probably never eat them.I said that was her fault for not going with me in the first place. I bought a big thing of mayonnaise and she said, "You know we get mayonnaise basically for free and we have a bunch of them right?"
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Face
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Face
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March 15th, 2020 at 2:16:14 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Because people are carriers and can transmit the disease BEFORE they even feel sick.
Because it is 10 x as fatal as the flu (estimate) on a case by case basis.
Because we have seen a country run out of ventilators! (Italy)
Because modern medicine has created an unprecedented number of 'at risk' individuals.... over 60, diabetic, immunocompromised.



Louder, for the people in back.

Quote: SOOP

So everyone has someone close they are worrying about.



84yr old grandma with pacemaker and skin cancer. Mama is primary caregiver, so can't go there. Aunt has COPD. Pops is prepping for an organ donation for my diabetic, double amputee uncle. I'm the sole caregiver for my cancer stricken g/f, who doesn't have a stitch of family on the planet save her 8yr old son. And I'm a mailman. I'm a long f#$%ing walk from "worried".

I offer this mostly as an apology for my sarcasm earlier. I do not think I am capable of panic, but I damn sure am hyped.

Any word on where in our county it's been confirmed? Not that it matters because I assume that everyone has been exposed, but... ya know... lie to me. TIA.
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TumblingBones
TumblingBones
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LuckyPhow
March 15th, 2020 at 2:59:19 PM permalink
Quote: Face


Any word on where in our county it's been confirmed? Not that it matters because I assume that everyone has been exposed, but... ya know... lie to me. TIA.


One of the best and easiest ways to track the spread is with the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center's Interactive Map. The only problem with it is the resolution of locations. For the U.S. it's at the state level. If I recall correctly, you're in NY State. The map will show (at the moment) 729 total case for the state. But NY is big so that doesn't necessarily reassure you it's not in your neighbourhood. To go deeper you need the underlying dataset. I didn't see a link for it on the JHU site but there is one available from Kaggle, a web-site for folks who are in to data mining and AI/ML). The 'Novel Corona Virus 2019 Dataset' is being updated daily. You can download the entire file or view it via Google Docs. Keep in mind this isn't an "official" data set but something being maintained by a Kaggle contributor so it doesn't have all 162k cases.

As of 17 hours ago (i.e., time of last update) the bulk of the NY cases are apparently in Westchester or LI. I saw one in Albany, one in Monroe Co (i.e., Rochester) and one in Rockland County. The caveat however is that a high percentage of the cases simple say "New York" without any added detail.

Hope this helps. Ultimately, your best bet is your county health dept. Mine just reported this AM a local family that has confirmed cases.

EDIT: after posting this I looked around for a better data set and found the Harvard Dataverse site which has a "US COVID-19 Daily Cases with Basemap". I haven't had a chance to look at the data yet but it says it has county-level data.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 15th, 2020 at 3:06:40 PM permalink
where I live they've closed the public schools and libraries until March 27

what do they think is going to happen on March 27?

a miracle?
"but I don't care too much for money..........money can't buy me love".............. the Beatles

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