EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 423
  • Posts: 24004
March 16th, 2020 at 12:00:42 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



I Keep on trying to explain to her



Why? I would explain once and go
do it. It's supplies, not a risk venture.
That she's opposed in ludicrous.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
Joined: Aug 12, 2018
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 403
Thanks for this post from:
Forager
March 16th, 2020 at 12:57:57 PM permalink
I'm sorry, but despite what everyone else thinks I believe that this is overblown. Do you really need the President of the United States to tell you to wash your hands and stay home when you're sick?

Now they're saying that you shouldn't congregate in groups of 10 or more. I'm waiting for martial law to be declared and for everyone to be kept in their on home.
The best things in life are not free.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 2364
Thanks for this post from:
ams288blackjacklad
March 16th, 2020 at 2:26:26 PM permalink
This situation is going to go 1 of 2 ways:

#1. About 80% of the US population gets infected with COVID-19, either over one month or over 7-8 months. There are > 1 million deaths of elderly people and people with underlying conditions. Eventually the US population gains immunity and the virus stops spreading.

#2 The shutdowns and social distancing work to contain the spread of the disease. <20,000 deaths. We continue to lock down our borders and we develop a vaccine.

We all want #2, none of us can be certain that its possible. I want to work to give #2 scenario a chance, but if it goes the way of #1 I want my wife and I to be in the 20% that don't get infected by the disease.
******************************
The difference between this disease and influenza and SARs, etc. : Covid-19 is highly transmissible!!! And Covid-19 is 10x more lethal than flu on average. The "on average' qualifier is important; the COVID-19 is less lethal than influenza for young people but is much greater than 10X more lethal than influenza for old people. Fatality rates of 5-13% for elderly people in China, and rumors that the rates are even higher in Europe. So, older Americans are extremely concerned.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 423
  • Posts: 24004
March 16th, 2020 at 2:44:06 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Fatality rates of 5-13% for elderly people.



So an old person's chance of recovery
is 99%, not 99.9%. And for this the world
is shutting down. Insane.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 376
March 16th, 2020 at 2:47:29 PM permalink
No. your chances are:
- dying 5 to 13% depending on age and underlying conditions
- - an extended stay in the ICU with tubes inserted everywhere: ~ 15%
- no big deal: 80%

The 15% number assumes of course the hospital facilities are not overwhelmed.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 206
  • Posts: 7927
Thanks for this post from:
tringlomane
March 16th, 2020 at 2:47:54 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So an old person's chance of recovery
is 99%, not 99.9%. And for this the world
is shutting down. Insane.



You're probably at some high risk, we know you're not a young person by any means. I'm not sure what the odds of you no longer posting. but they're higher than some of the rest of us. We will lose forum members to this, just a question of whom.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
  • Threads: 163
  • Posts: 9500
March 16th, 2020 at 2:55:06 PM permalink
Plus there is also a report that even if some people recover they could lose 20% of their lung capacity. This was only reported in China so far.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
Calder
Calder
Joined: Mar 26, 2010
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 486
March 16th, 2020 at 2:55:27 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

This situation is going to go 1 of 2 ways:...


Those are the only two possibilities?
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 4022
Thanks for this post from:
rawtuff
March 16th, 2020 at 2:59:39 PM permalink
Quote: Lovecomps

Do you really need the President of the United States to tell you to wash your hands and stay home when you're sick?



Yes. Many people do. People are ****ing stupid. They don't even wash their hands when they're NOT sick.

And staying home when you're sick is a luxury that a lot of people can't afford. They either have crappy jobs and live paycheck to paycheck, or they would get fired if they tried to stay home.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2018
Thanks for this post from:
rawtuff
March 16th, 2020 at 3:26:52 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

This situation is going to go 1 of 2 ways:

#1. About 80% of the US population gets infected with COVID-19, either over one month or over 7-8 months. There are > 1 million deaths of elderly people and people with underlying conditions. Eventually the US population gains immunity and the virus stops spreading.

#2 The shutdowns and social distancing work to contain the spread of the disease. <20,000 deaths. We continue to lock down our borders and we develop a vaccine.

We all want #2, none of us can be certain that its possible. I want to work to give #2 scenario a chance, but if it goes the way of #1 I want my wife and I to be in the 20% that don't get infected by the disease.



There is a huge middle ground between those two possibilities. It is possible almost everyone gets this virus. But the longer it is spread out, the better. If it takes 30 months to infect the majority of us, it will be a far smaller burden on our medical system, with better treatments developed over that time, than if it happens within the next few months.

  • Jump to: