tringlomane
tringlomane
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March 16th, 2020 at 10:52:39 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

It's possible, but that would mean you were exposed to it 4-6 weeks earlier though. A quick little google search allows for it to be possible on the timeline, but we didn't have anyone dying here then from COVID19. Sigh, probably not the case you had it already. There is some chance you can become reinfected even if you did, even by the same identical strain. Our bodies aren't well prepared to fight this, people google yourself. It's not what you heard or what you know, there might be exceptions to common sense on this one.



4 to 6 weeks earlier? It usually doesn't stay that latent. Most people show some symptoms by Day 5. It's anywhere from 2 to 14 days.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fsymptoms.html

So he definitely could have had coronavirus. Or just the flu. Either could do the same thing. This is why aggressive testing is a positive thing. Keep feeling well michael99000.

I have terribly mild symptoms of some illness in the last 24 hours, so I'm being paranoid about going to the casino this past week (Wednesday and Sunday). No fever (one of the bigger signs of coronavirus) yet, fortunately.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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March 16th, 2020 at 11:12:43 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

There is a huge middle ground between those two possibilities. It is possible almost everyone gets this virus. But the longer it is spread out, the better. If it takes 30 months to infect the majority of us, it will be a far smaller burden on our medical system, with better treatments developed over that time, than if it happens within the next few months.



Of course I know that when it is spread out that it is a smaller burden on our medical system. But I have a wife that is on chemotherapy and her immune system is suppressed. She is the poster child for the kind of person that Coronavirus kills. So, whether medical systems get over-burdened is not my immediate concern.

My interest is in whether my wife lives or dies. If "everybody gets this virus" then there is a significant chance that she will die. And "better treatments" in the future? Maybe, but in 2020 there still is no treatment to control or cure any virus - HIV, herpes, Covid-19 - no frigging treatment. So, I'm not holding my breath.

I fantasize about putting my wife in my car and driving to West Virginia. The only place where there is no coronavirus.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
TomG
TomG
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March 16th, 2020 at 11:34:42 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Of course I know that when it is spread out that it is a smaller burden on our medical system. But I have a wife that is on chemotherapy and her immune system is suppressed. She is the poster child for the kind of person that Coronavirus kills. So, whether medical systems get over-burdened is not my immediate concern.



A smaller burden means more doctors and ventilators available, as well as immediate hospitalization, and whatever other resources are necessary to increases survival rates for everyone, included those at the greatest risk.

There are a lot of very successful treatments available for HIV: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS#Treatment
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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March 17th, 2020 at 12:00:27 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

4 to 6 weeks earlier? It usually doesn't stay that latent. Most people show some symptoms by Day 5. It's anywhere from 2 to 14 days.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fsymptoms.html

So he definitely could have had coronavirus. Or just the flu. Either could do the same thing. This is why aggressive testing is a positive thing. Keep feeling well michael99000.

I have terribly mild symptoms of some illness in the last 24 hours, so I'm being paranoid about going to the casino this past week (Wednesday and Sunday). No fever (one of the bigger signs of coronavirus) yet, fortunately.



Hello, I'm misunderstood. He said he was sick 3 weeks ago. I didn't know off hand how long before symptoms someone can experience symptoms, so was vague for this reason.
I'm a lot unlikely to think he had had it, because I think we would have seen deaths. Maybe we weren't testing people 3 weeks ago, but surely infectious disease Drs would have known from cultures of others that would have been dying. They don't need tests if they're running cultures, it is a test, but not a test for the disease only.
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rawtuff
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beachbumbabs
March 17th, 2020 at 12:11:04 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

This situation is going to go 1 of 2 ways:

#1. About 80% of the US population gets infected with COVID-19, either over one month or over 7-8 months. There are > 1 million deaths of elderly people and people with underlying conditions. Eventually the US population gains immunity and the virus stops spreading.

#2 The shutdowns and social distancing work to contain the spread of the disease. <20,000 deaths. We continue to lock down our borders and we develop a vaccine.

We all want #2, none of us can be certain that its possible. I want to work to give #2 scenario a chance, but if it goes the way of #1 I want my wife and I to be in the 20% that don't get infected by the disease.
******************************
The difference between this disease and influenza and SARs, etc. : Covid-19 is highly transmissible!!! And Covid-19 is 10x more lethal than flu on average. The "on average' qualifier is important; the COVID-19 is less lethal than influenza for young people but is much greater than 10X more lethal than influenza for old people. Fatality rates of 5-13% for elderly people in China, and rumors that the rates are even higher in Europe. So, older Americans are extremely concerned.



I'm afraid #2 is unlikely, every scientific prognosis I've read or interview with top health care authority I've watched says the whole point of the shutdowns and social distancing is to flatten the curve of the speed of contagion, but almost inevitable the same or close to the same percentage will be infected anyways, the big question is how fast. A vaccine being ready and successfully deployed worldwide is pretty far in the future and naturally build herd immunity needs about 80% of the population to be immune in order to work.
beachbumbabs
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petroglyph
March 17th, 2020 at 12:57:55 AM permalink
Timelines: Feb 2 was the last day people were allowed to travel back to the US from China without severe restrictions. That was 6 weeks ago yesterday.

There are 2 reasons for all this wholesale shutdown.

1. We don't know where it is because there hasn't been any testing to speak of, still don't as of today. So they have to stop everything until they can pinpoint where it is, isolate it, and break the chain of infection. Once that's done, a lot of things can open back up, keeping the infected areas isolated until the infection dies within each area.

2. People don't get sick fast enough after they get it. Young people don't get as sick as older people. So a lot of people are carriers for a few days to a week, and a lot of those, even when they get sick, if they're healthy otherwise, they can have a mild case, maybe not even change anything they're doing . But all that time, they're infecting other people, shedding the virus every where they go.

So, until they can get millions of tests deployed, which they think will be by the end of the month, shutting everything down will slow the rate of transmission, because people won't be around each other.

Closing schools isn't so much about keeping the kids safe, really, because the virus is very low young fatality - virtually none below age 10, and a small number below age 19. It's about the kids getting it through school and bringing it home to their parents, grandparents, and other older adults.

In contrast to the kids, my mortality rate is 15-20%. My mom, who I'm caregiving, is 30-40% statistically, but with her particular issues, it will be fatal - it's that simple. So we're already in lockdown, but I'm also lucky: we have enough retirement income between us we can manage isolation pretty well. I just have to be super-conscious about washing up and limit my contact. She hasn't left the house in 3 weeks.

Back to generalities:

Slowing it down is primarily about keeping the fatalities to a minimum, both by keeping the serious cases needing hospitalization to a level the hospitals can handle, and delaying the saturation of the infection as long as possible in hopes of an effective vaccine being developed in time.

But a majority of us WILL get it. We have no immunity to it as a species. It travels too easily, lives too long on surfaces, and infects without symptoms for entirely too long.

The best experts expect, with a population in the US of 339 million, that 70 million to 150 million will get it. With a 3.4% mortality rate, (which is 34x the rate of regular flu at .1%) that's 2.5 to 5 million dead this year, if they don't break the chain. Most of those who die will have some other illness that weakens them enough to succumb, but many now-healthy people will not survive either.

So, everyone is being asked to pull together on this. If you're young and healthy, you're probably going to survive it. But the more you go out, or do stuff like normal, the more likely you are to bring it back with you right now (without testing), and kill family or friends. Yeah, that sounds ridiculous or surreal, even to me writing it, but that's the real situation.

Just take a break from the world, guys. Hunker down with the video games, the internet, books, streaming, the people you love, whatever. Everybody will understand, if not now, in a couple of months, why you're not at that party, that bar, that casino.

Without getting into the forbidden area of politics, in this situation, the ONLY people to listen to are the epidemiologists and virologists, and NOBODY who's got any reason other than your health and that of those around you, should be believed.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
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AZDuffman
March 17th, 2020 at 3:36:51 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


2. People don't get sick fast enough after they get it. Young people don't get as sick as older people. So a lot of people are carriers for a few days to a week, and a lot of those, even when they get sick, if they're healthy otherwise, they can have a mild case, maybe not even change anything they're doing . But all that time, they're infecting other people, shedding the virus every where they go.

They are shedding virus which have the potential to infect others. Vigilant sanitizing of that escalator's handrail and the shopping cart's handle should greatly diminish actual transmission.

Quote: beachbunbabs

Closing schools isn't so much about keeping the kids safe, really, because the virus is very low young fatality - virtually none below age 10, and a small number below age 19. It's about the kids getting it through school and bringing it home to their parents, grandparents, and other older adults.

This is our chosen mechanism for all viruses, is this virus really all that different?

Quote: beachbumbabs

In contrast to the kids, my mortality rate is 15-20%. My mom, who I'm caregiving, is 30-40% statistically, but with her particular issues, it will be fatal - it's that simple. So we're already in lockdown, but I'm also lucky: we have enough retirement income between us we can manage isolation pretty well. I just have to be super-conscious about washing up and limit my contact. She hasn't left the house in 3 weeks.

Good luck to each of you. It is fortunate that the "retirement income" provides an opportunity for a lockdown. In the Poor House a lockdown end foodbanks, gyms, most social interaction and intensifies exposure risk to MoW volunteers as well as Deliverymen dropping off necessities as well as necessaries.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Just take a break from the world, guys. Hunker down with the video games, the internet, books, streaming, the people you love, whatever. Everybody will understand, if not now, in a couple of months, why you're not at that party, that bar, that casino.

Marvelous. You are in a good situation to do that. Here at the poorhouse there are few that read books or can get them delivered. The miserable on-premises "library" is closed because it is a place of congregation. In this place, comic books are probably considered "higher literature" by all the addlebrained inmates to whom "intellect" is a terrible insult. I wish there was a Books On Wheels service. I wish I could retain Basic Strategy. I wish I could remember if I had my morning coffee. I wish there were better movies"included with Amazon" rather than only available with Subscriptions to Premium Services. Well, enough typing, its time for me to go back to my three-pound dunbells.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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March 17th, 2020 at 3:48:50 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff



Marvelous. You are in a good situation to do that. Here at the poorhouse there are few that read books or can get them delivered. The miserable on-premises "library" is closed because it is a place of congregation. In this place, comic books are probably considered "higher literature" by all the addlebrained inmates to whom "intellect" is a terrible insult. I wish there was a Books On Wheels service. I wish I could retain Basic Strategy. I wish I could remember if I had my morning coffee. I wish there were better movies"included with Amazon" rather than only available with Subscriptions to Premium Services. Well, enough typing, its time for me to go back to my three-pound dunbells.



This is a very, very good point. To some people this ranges from "inconvenient" to a sort of "police state fantasy camp." Due to very good luck in timing I am good for months assuming I can get basic food at the grocery store. If some stock plays work out I could make some very nice coin and set myself up to have a nice side income selling covered calls for years. I have so far lost less than $500 in lost dealing gigs. When this settles down and mortgage rates fall yet again I will be steadily employed for some time.

At the same time I feel extremely bad for all the people getting creamed by it all. Dealers at the casino who live paycheck to paycheck. The owner of the small coffeehouse down the road. Lets be honest, almost anyone in the direct services industry. If you know what it is to be just a paycheck or two ahead, and I am one who does, then you must ask if this is all worth it.

I am not going to start yet another thread about how this will financially effect various ones of us, but it would be interesting to hear.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 17th, 2020 at 4:03:49 AM permalink
They are saying, yes, this virus is significantly different than other known viruses in that it ISN'T killing very young children or children in utero.

There is thought to be quite a bit of significance to that difference, because there are t-cells, stem cells and other chemical and physiological differences between adults and kids at the cellular level, and possibly something their bodies are doing that adult bodies no longer do. This could be key to fighting not just this but perhaps one or more classes of coronaviruses. Possibly even bigger than that, but I'm not qualified to speculate, and would hate to offer false hope.

Fleastiff, you, petroglyph, greasyjohn, and several other folks are among my concerns here. It's going to be very difficult in days to come. I'm not in a position to be of much help, because things are challenging here, but if I can, PM me and tell me what I can do.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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March 17th, 2020 at 5:51:08 AM permalink
I'm convinced now this save the most people strategy is going to fail, because the majority of people do not have an incentive to hole up for too long at personal expense. Millions of people are going to be out of work, so others can live and also benefit financially by living to spend their money. I had a life to live, and it pretty much makes no sense for me if things work out perfectly in just a lives perspective. I'm still going to have bills and obligations., almost a complete loss of opportunity. Let's say the neighbors across the street are worth 4 million. They have a 20% chance of dying, they're not going to give me $800,000 if they live. See how this doesn't make sense long term. In 2 months, every hospital in America will be burned down, that's the kind of chaos we're looking at. It's just one giant, middle child sacrifice.

People always talk about how the federal government is too powerful, they're not even close to having any real power. All this money they tax and spend, you would think somehow capable of magic wanding this, but they're not and our own president is likely to die from this. How is he not going to get this, he is exposed to literally millions of people just by the virtue of being exposed to hundreds. You saw him at the podiums with multitudes of strangers standing right behind him. For his exposure to be low, he needs a bubble suit of his own, or needs to be locked up in some room like a prison cell. Think about this, if he lives, it'll be discontent, and if he dies, it'll be a president, young, unlikely to die from this virus.
I am a robot.

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