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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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August 20th, 2013 at 1:25:25 PM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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August 20th, 2013 at 2:12:13 PM permalink
Assuming regression to the mean based on past performance on random results is the gambler's fallacy.

In short, you are claiming a correlation between previous results and future results, where none exists, and especially not without card counting (examining the make up of the deck).

-4 from median trends is just a fancy way of expressing the gambler's fallacy ... that things have to go back towards average. Claiming a shoe is not 'random' because it's pre-ordained is also failing to understand the term 'random' in it's purest sense. Use unpredictable if you will. There's no fundamental difference from dealing from the front of the shoe or from the middle or every fifth card.

Therefore the result is still random, as you cannot know if there will be more Banker's or Player in the rest of the shoe (or in the next short term few hands), unless your trends are a magnitude more complex than you have alluded to, then you have nothing to ponder on except pretty words and a bogus terms like 'money management' and 'mental attitude'.

No, if there exists a good system, that one can follow and use, it would lead to money management and discipline, not the vice-versa magical thinking you propose and money others before you have tried to sell.

Carry on, if it works, we bother trying to sell me the golden goose. One wonders if personal acclamation is more important to you than winning in a casino. If it is, then one suspects you do not have the discipline and attitude you so implore others to have.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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August 20th, 2013 at 2:34:42 PM permalink
Thank you, thecesspit. An intelligent, cohesive, and pertinent response. Thank you very much.

That said, I don't agree with your assessments at all. Not of my play nor of me personally. You're way off base. And wrong.

You apparently know little of my play and even less of me personally, for you're "taking shots" within that post that, again, are well off the mark.

But I love the effort, my friend, and it's refreshing to read something with some thought behind it beyond a snide remark. (Methinks there are alot of jealous members in this forum that can't stand to read of anyone's success.....miserable forum fools among us.)

Thanks again for taking the time and interest, thecesspit. Much appreciated.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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August 20th, 2013 at 2:41:45 PM permalink
As you can't counter a single point I made about your methods, then I can finish about here then. You don't want a debate, it seems.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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August 20th, 2013 at 2:56:29 PM permalink
Thank you for your poignant message, gr8player.

I, for one, am thrilled that you have not left this forum and have decided to continue sharing your infinite wisdom with us, for we are your humble students. And please, gr8player, do not let the Negative Nancys here discourage you from posting. (My apologies in advance if your real name is Nancy!)

But gr8player...do not keep us in suspense any longer! We, your humble students, have but one question for you. It's a question that's near and dear to our hearts...a question that begs for your attention...a question that most deservedly requires an answer.

The question is:

Have you accepted the challenge yet?

We anxiously await your reply, gr8player, and I wish it all for you, my friend!
Fighting BS one post at a time!
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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August 20th, 2013 at 3:02:00 PM permalink
Oh, thecesspit, I haven't nearly the time it would take to "counter" all your mistaken insights.....from the typically popular "Gambler's Fallacy" to the supposedly-senseless "discipline" and "money management" then right on to the "what am I trying to sell?".....oh, thecesspit, I could only wish I had that kind of time to tear assunder all you believe to be true of me or my Bac play.

I do have two words for you to ponder, though:

Intelligent play.

Don't discount it, my friend, for to believe that every Bac player is the same is to believe in the tooth fairy. (Oh, and by tooth fairy, I mean the supposedly insurmountable house edge.....just for clarification purposes.)
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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August 20th, 2013 at 3:05:18 PM permalink
Oooops, sorry, thecesspit, look what happened in-between our discourse......idiocy popped up. Sorry.....don't blame Beethoven9th, for he simply doesn't know any better.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
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August 20th, 2013 at 5:36:07 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Oh, thecesspit, I haven't nearly the time it would take to "counter" all your mistaken insights.....from the typically popular "Gambler's Fallacy" to the supposedly-senseless "discipline" and "money management" then right on to the "what am I trying to sell?".....oh, thecesspit, I could only wish I had that kind of time to tear assunder all you believe to be true of me or my Bac play.



Oh, just try starting with one thing, rather than pontificating on everything. I don't believe anything about you. I've clearly made an argument, with a series rational points, that you could start to dissemble if you have a counter point.

But you don't, you just tell me my beliefs are wrong. Great, well done. That and $2 buys me a Tim Horton's coffee on the way home.

Quote:

I do have two words for you to ponder, though:

Intelligent play.



I've got two for you:

Intelligent Discussion.


Quote:

Don't discount it, my friend, for to believe that every Bac player is the same is to believe in the tooth fairy. (Oh, and by tooth fairy, I mean the supposedly insurmountable house edge.....just for clarification purposes.)



No, the house edge exists, and I can prove it. Whereas your advantage is unproven. Proof is not you saying you went to the cage with winnings, or just because you say so. That's anecdotes. They may do fine for initial chatting, but with out something concrete, you are just adding entropy to a dying universe.

Not all Bac Players are the same, I agree. Some follow trends, some bet banker all the time, some martingale, some think they have a winning method. But each makes a bet with the same expectation on banker and player (*).

(*) The pedantic will note this is not precisely true, if deck composition is known, but the original poster is not noting down anything about deck composition and card ranks by his own admission. He's just following trends.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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August 20th, 2013 at 5:39:29 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Oooops, sorry, thecesspit, look what happened in-between our discourse......idiocy popped up. Sorry.....don't blame Beethoven9th, for he simply doesn't know any better.



I see no idiocy. Just someone asking you to accept, or otherwise a challenge that was put forward to you. You can easily deal with it. You can say "I do not accept this challenge".

Or one better, negotiate the terms of the challenge.

The fact you continue think it's 'idiocy' adds to the growing weight of information that suggests you run scared of a positive betting oppurtunity. For after all, if you expect to win in general, a 50/50 bet is advantage play.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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August 20th, 2013 at 5:45:32 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

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