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DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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August 21st, 2013 at 11:03:13 AM permalink
Don't let the door hit ya in the ass!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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August 21st, 2013 at 11:29:33 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

OK, OK, Mr. Semantics, try not to look down your nose upon me:

Historical: my recorded statistics on each trend over 1000 shoes.
Variance: the "drift" from their median line, both up- and down-wards
Statistics: the resulting numbers and/or percentages of same

Does that make you feel better, thecesspit, knowing my definitions? Or, rather, didn't you already know them but you preferred a rather lame attempt at embarrassing me?

This forum absolutely reeks of elitism, and without a doubt does not deserve to have me share a thing about me or my Bac play in it.....you all deserve each other.



I'm not a Bac player and I haven't read all your posts but you must keep meticulous records as I do with blackjack. Would you care to share your yearly or lifetime wins? I'll understand if you choose not to as I don't share my blackjack wins other than being very vague.

Do you play under the radar and do you get heat for winning? Do you play rated? Do you get comped well?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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August 21st, 2013 at 11:38:28 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

OK, OK, Mr. Semantics, try not to look down your nose upon me:

Historical: my recorded statistics on each trend over 1000 shoes.
Variance: the "drift" from their median line, both up- and down-wards
Statistics: the resulting numbers and/or percentages of same



Your definition of variance is not one I am used to. Variance does not drift. Variance (in this case) is a fixed property which defines how much the data varies from mean. Not the median. Its one property of a probability distribution function. Once you know the variance from your 1000 shoes, the variance is the variance. The current state is one data point on the distribution function.

So one could calculate the distribution function for the trend in question. Work out the median, the variance and other information. One can understand that at -4 was a x% event. But this does not tell you that the next X events will tend to be type Y. These events are still defined by the probability density function. It has not changed, and there is no regression to the mean.

The state of the art research says that player/banker probabilities vary very little dependent on the deck make up. As you (unless we misunderstand) are tracking only results, not the remaining deck make up, then P/B probabilities are fixed, by the very probability distribution function you are using to calculate the variance. Therefore, you cannot use past events to tell you that the 'trends' will change or stay the same in the future.

Ergo, your "intelligent play" does not result in anything more than guessing and bet sizing with no advantage.

It would be possible to refute my statements above, by the way. I can think of two or three techniques you might claim to apply that would not make the model above correct. However, they would break at least one key axiom I am making in my assessment. And then you'd have to show clearly why that axiom was not valid for a baccarat deck. This is entirely possible.

You probably wouldn't want to reveal your entire method, of course. But that's okay. You don't need to. There's at least two key ways you can show the method is worth further investigation, if that should be your aim.

If it's not, well, one wonders what you are trying to achieve, apart from saying much with out actually revealing.

Quote:

Does that make you feel better, thecesspit, knowing my definitions? Or, rather, didn't you already know them but you preferred a rather lame attempt at embarrassing me?



No, wasn't trying to embarrass you. You used a series of words in a way that doesn't make sense mathematically.

Quote:

This forum absolutely reeks of elitism, and without a doubt does not deserve to have me share a thing about me or my Bac play in it.....you all deserve each other.



There's nothing elitist about asking people to be able to follow a logical argument, or to make one. It's a standard that is not applied often enough. You have to realize many people have claimed magical methods for beating the system, and none of them have stood the cold light of harsh analysis. Other people have shown a clear advantage play in areas.... guess what? They don't get mocked.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
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August 21st, 2013 at 12:25:52 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

The entire "challenge" concept is sheer idiocy; you know it, I know it, and Beethoven9th knows it.

Quote: gr8player

Grow up, AxelWolf, will you?

Quote: gr8player

OK, OK, Mr. Semantics, try not to look down your nose upon me:

Quote: gr8player

This forum absolutely reeks of elitism, and without a doubt does not deserve to have me share a thing about me or my Bac play in it.....you all deserve each other.


Hello gr8player,

I am thrilled that an esteemed teacher such as yourself has resumed posting on this forum because we are in dire need of your help.

But I must ask, gr8player, why does a sage such as yourself insult his humble students? Forgive us for our inability to grasp your wisdom, my friend. I know that our collective intellectual power pales in comparison to yours, so please do have patience with us. We seek your advice in unlocking the highly treasured secrets of baccarat!

Oh yes, and before I bid you farewell, gr8player, I must ask a tiny favor of you. Just a minor favor, mind you. It's something to which this entire forum yearns for an answer.

On behalf of the members of the WoV forum, Ióas your meek & humble followerówish to ask:

Have you accepted the challenge yet?

Have a beautiful day, gr8player, and I wish you nothing but the very best!
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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August 21st, 2013 at 12:41:56 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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August 21st, 2013 at 12:51:44 PM permalink
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
jet
jet
Joined: Aug 21, 2013
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August 21st, 2013 at 12:55:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I believe on the you're but only at the very, very end of the shoe. Either way it you'd make more money picking up change of the ground. But as we know, this guy here says he's winning following "trends" using "money management" which is complete and utter trash.

Also, I card count blackjack so rare these days. There is a lot better money elsewhere and not a dime of it comes from a non APable bac gam.



Mini-Bac is countable in the purist sense that with extremely deep pen (like 7.75/8), the tie bet could exhibit some positive EV situations. However, IDing all of these situations requires counts that keep many side counts. But recall standard mini-bac dealing procedure. The first card is revealed, and then X cards are burned based on the value of the card, face cards equalling 10 and an ace being 11. This coupled with the cut card being set at 14-17 cards makes the effective pen at about 7.5/8. So, long story short, don't waste your time counting mini-bac shoes!!! You can make more money picking up cans out of the trash (In MI). Yes, Elliot and others have written about popular side bets, but let's face it, do you think those guys are really "reputable" APs?

My opinion on this guy (gr8player) is that he needs to learn some math before he goes into a casino. As far as I'm concerned, if I owned a casino, I would offer him a Room and Beverage comp, along with airfare if his level of play was high enough...

jet
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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August 21st, 2013 at 12:57:39 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
  • Threads: 154
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August 21st, 2013 at 1:09:24 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

OK, OK, Mr. Semantics, try not to look down your nose upon me:

Historical: my recorded statistics on each trend over 1000 shoes.
Variance: the "drift" from their median line, both up- and down-wards
Statistics: the resulting numbers and/or percentages of same

Does that make you feel better, thecesspit, knowing my definitions? Or, rather, didn't you already know them but you preferred a rather lame attempt at embarrassing me?

This forum absolutely reeks of elitism, and without a doubt does not deserve to have me share a thing about me or my Bac play in it.....you all deserve each other.



Could you please come back when you break your first casino? I am not expecting Wynn or anything, but perhaps El Cortez or something smaller would be a start.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
August 21st, 2013 at 1:11:08 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

I'm not a Bac player and I haven't read all your posts but you must keep meticulous records as I do with blackjack. Would you care to share your yearly or lifetime wins? I'll understand if you choose not to as I don't share my blackjack wins other than being very vague.

Do you play under the radar and do you get heat for winning? Do you play rated? Do you get comped well?



Thank you for your inquiry, 1BB.

You're assumption is a correct one; I keep ledgers at home detailing virtually everything regarding my Bac play (and even updating theories) that are updated weekly. After I transpose the pertinant information therein, I then discard my scorecards (I used to save them, until it took up a major portion of one of our rooms).

Regarding my lifetime wins, I'm afraid I am (probably) still in the red. You see, my friend, I thought I had Baccarat all figured out much, much too prematurely in my Bac play and got, for lack of a better term, killed. I lost a good 6-figures (a GOOD 6-figures) before I finally came to the only conclusion that I could come to: I'd either get the better of this game, or I'd cease to play it. Hence, I developed my current method. It didn't happen overnight, and it took a whole lotta work and due diligence, but I wound up to the point where I'm at today, and now I'm well into some nice yearly profits for the past few years, easily. But, because I have rather limited casino access, it'll still take more time before I can pronounce myself as a lifetime winner...I've too many early losses that I'd need to recoup first.

Look, that's a major reason for my posting....trying to prevent anyone else from making the same mistakes I did. I thought I had it all figured out. I found out, and I mean I found out the hard way, that I did not. And if you took the time to read my posts, I try to convey all of that which served to turn my Bac game around, from loss to win. There is alot involved in doing so, and therefore I do post as often as I'm able to. I've got alot to say about this game, because I've played it and I've lived it. And I firmly believe that anyone that is serious aboiut this game can glean much useful information that'll serve to clear their path to possible long-term success.

I do get rated, but my ratings are horrendous, for obvious reasons. Just as obvious, my comps are virtually non-existant. No one's clamoring for my Bac action. 'nuff said

Heat? Well, there was one casino that sent the "suits" down (3 of them) to observe first-hand and, most probably, to intimidate. Didn't work. I simply gave that joint up. It's out of my rotation now.

Another hotel had me rated to win. Yes, I saw it in their computer (a friend of mine worked in the credit dept). I am rated with a positive expectation. That became another hotel that I dropped from my rotation.

I had another pit boss, who was retiring in a few months, ask me, point blank, would I mind if he could piggy-back my play. (Play alongside me.)

There are more examples, but I think I answered your questions.

Be well.

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