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treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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April 3rd, 2013 at 5:15:41 PM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

What I am afraid of about baccarat is not my method(s) going stale and I have been defeated by the game and I have to close shop (knock on wood). What I am truly afraid of is baccarat becoming games like black jack and poker. When the game has become efficient. I mean by this is that some Thorp-like genius comes in and opens his/her trap and ruins the game for everyone. For the moment drop by your local Barnes & Noble and head to the gaming section. You see tons and tons of books on black jack and poker. I know many of these books are fluff but there are many that are worthy of the paper they are written on. Like the famous Beat the Dealer for black jack or The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. These great books have truly given the player the edge to extract money at the tables. I don't want this to happen to baccarat at all. I want this game to remain elusive for the masses where not many people would be jumping into this. For those that do I want them to be naive and be possessed by their own greed, fear and hope without the willing effort to put in the work to keep the illusion going so the casinos would not have to adjust and adapt new ways to make it hard to extract chips from the table to my pockets.

well, you won't have to worry about me spilling the beans
Each day is better than the next
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 774
April 3rd, 2013 at 5:28:35 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Quote: DMSCR

What I am afraid of about baccarat is not my method(s) going stale and I have been defeated by the game and I have to close shop (knock on wood). What I am truly afraid of is baccarat becoming games like black jack and poker. When the game has become efficient. I mean by this is that some Thorp-like genius comes in and opens his/her trap and ruins the game for everyone. For the moment drop by your local Barnes & Noble and head to the gaming section. You see tons and tons of books on black jack and poker. I know many of these books are fluff but there are many that are worthy of the paper they are written on. Like the famous Beat the Dealer for black jack or The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. These great books have truly given the player the edge to extract money at the tables. I don't want this to happen to baccarat at all. I want this game to remain elusive for the masses where not many people would be jumping into this. For those that do I want them to be naive and be possessed by their own greed, fear and hope without the willing effort to put in the work to keep the illusion going so the casinos would not have to adjust and adapt new ways to make it hard to extract chips from the table to my pockets.

well, you won't have to worry about me spilling the beans



Well if you do find out something that works and you are consistently profitable, keep your mouth shut! And just go on your stealth mode and extract your chips and disappear. Rinse and repeat. LOL.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
  • Threads: 34
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April 8th, 2013 at 4:25:46 PM permalink
shoe #121 in the Wizards 8 deck RGN's....P P P P P P P P P T P P P P B T P P P P P P P P B P P P P B B. The Beat the Streak System defeated this nasty Black Swan. A powerful negative progression that I uncovered while watching Family Guy. Sorry, I will not be selling to the public for obvious reasons.
Each day is better than the next
teamswindler
teamswindler
Joined: May 6, 2013
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May 7th, 2013 at 10:01:36 AM permalink
gr8player -

I have a question for you. My local casinos are now offering no commission no collection baccarat. The only caveat is when the banker gets a third card and totals 7, then its a push for the banker instead of a win.

So my question is, if i were to continuously bet 1 unit on each side and continue to bet 1 unit on the losing side, but on the winning side progress positively using the 1324 method and returning back to 1 unit after the 4th win, is it possible to grind out a victory. The plan is to quit once i am up 5 units.

In other words, if the player wins 4 in a row, it would profit 10 units while losing 4 units on the banker side at the same time, thus netting 6 units. So it seems that if EITHER side has a nice run, then I should come out positive. A loss would occur if one either side only wins 2 in a row.


Curious of your thoughts.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 13th, 2013 at 8:17:08 AM permalink
Hello, teamswindler. Please pardon the tardiness of my response to your inquiry, as I had a rare vacation week and spent the bulk of that (M - F) playing Bac in AC.

I simply cannot endorse the play that you're proposing.

The play loses two units at every "single" (read: a run of only one), and singles, my friend, are the most prolific of runs. One wouldn't want singles representing the "nemesis" of their play, IMHO.

Furthermore, even in those times where you are fortunate enough to get to your last "4-bet" (which is, for all intents and purposes, a "3-unit net" bet), should that bet fall, you're left at even for your series of bets. So you won your last two bets (again, effectively, the first bet, as a "net bet", falls always as "break-even") but came away empty-handed with that last loss. Those are odds that I would seek to avoid rather than promulgate.

Now, that all said, teamswindler, I do understand your basic premise, and I can appreciate it, as well. Capitalization. Maximizing winning plays.

Here's my approach in that vein:

I'd look for a predominate current trend to exploit.

Let's say that the Banker has been "doubling", like this: BB BBB BB, where it's been "hitting the 2-hole" on a rather consistent basis in this shoe (or portion thereof). I'd bet a unit on that "second B", collect my profit, and await another "top-line" (read: "1-hole") Banker decision and then either parlay or, at the very least, half-parlay my next bet onto that same "second B" trend.

In other words, I don't mind getting a bit aggressive and raising my bets, but I want to do so INTO THE PROPENSITY of this current shoe's results.

Another thing I'd look for, pretty much staying with that same type of trend, is if the Banker has been hitting the "3-hole" with any consistency, as well. In that case, I can bet for the "second Banker" and immediately utilize my parlay option directly onto the next "3-hole" bet, staying with the Banker's side once more.

Now, this is just one a a few trends that I seek out, and it bears noting that I don't just bet for Banker trends; I'm an equal-opportunity trender, so the Player's side, if that's where the trends are holding, that's where my bets are going. I'm always seeking an opportunity to exploit the existing conditions of each particular shoe or, again, any portion thereof.

Sometimes there are none to exploit, and my bets sink into the dealer's tray. In that case I'll back off my bets, and await a better (read: "trendier") portion of the soe, or even the next shoe. I don't do much chasing, much preferring to allow the table to come to me. It will, eventually. My trends are proven to me, and I've no doubt in them whatsoever. It's just a matter of "when".

Which brings me to probably the most important advice that I can impart to you on this game, teamswindler:

While there are good qualities inherent in playing an up-as-you-win, relatively aggressive style of play in order to capture the most units as you can whenever the table is favoring your bets, please know that, in the long run, you'd be better served to acknowledge and affirm this tenet:

"Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself."

Negative variance.

Everyone suffers through it, at some time or another. Sometimes worse than other times; no matter how you slice and dice it, negative variance is a very real nemesis to all casino play and one must learn to both recognize and deal with it or they will be, unfortunately, devoured by it.

Winning is the easy part. Nice when the majority of your bets are being paid off, isn't it? Any organ grinder and their monkey can win during the "positive variance" times of their play.

But it is within the negative variance times, and each player's personal reaction to same, that will serve to define them as successful (or, unfortunately, unsuccessful) long-term Bac players.

"Protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself".

Negative variance:

1.) No-bet (or, at the very least, minimilize your bets)
2.) Patience....await the "turn"....If your trends are worth a dollar, they'll appear soon enough.
3.) Discipline....play your same plays, your same money-management processes, and your same methodology ALWAYS. Never waver.

And then comes recoup:

Learn to recognize when it appears that your "upturn" is here, or, at the very least, impending/looming. Then be prepared to maximize your recoup of losses from your negative variance period. At recoup, return to base play.

You've effectively taken away the one most powerful weapon in the casino's arsenal against you: Continuous play. Continuous play and the negative variance that is, inevitably, a part of it. A major part. The casino needs only to keep you playing for them to get the better of you, eventually. For the negative variance, if one were to play the same way, blindly, at each and every turn of the cards, both bet-selection and money-management wise, will swallow you (and your bankroll) whole. Eventually.

The antedote to that rather frightful fate? Learning to recognize and react to one's own negative variance.

I wish it for all of you.

(Sidenote: Is it an exact science? Nope. And does that, at times, cost me some dollars? Oh, sure it does. Sometomes I'll find myself "back-pedalling" when I should be going "full-steam ahead", mostly because I've read my "variance" incorrectly. It happens. There is no perfection to be had here; only our very best attempts at all times. So, sometimes, my "misread" may cost me a few more dollars won....no biggie. I can't have it both ways. I can't be alerted and keen to negative variance by ignoring any potential signs of same. So sometimes I'm wrong. Again, no biggie.

Because for all those times when I'm correct, and I've avoided potentially-devastating losses, all in the name of "protecting the downside" via variance tracking; that is what keeps me in this game, that is what affords me the opportunity to continue in this constant battle. Loss avoidance.

I played last week at the Borgata and Harrah's (I prefer the marina over the boardwalk, for various reasons), 2 night each, and played 10 sessions. Didn't lose a one. Not one. Sure, I had difficulty....2 in particular. The other 8 were relative breezes. But 2 were tough, and one, particular, came close to relieving me of my session bankroll, and that, my friends, is a rarity, indeed.

But I stayed with that particularly harsh session, mainly because, well.....it was in fact, too harsh. Negative variance barking out loud. I knew something good would happen soon...the question then became....will I be here for it. I was, and it did. Left the table at even, same as the second rough session of the week. Break even. I'll seek to "get my recoup and get out" in those more-difficult-than-usual sessions.

But I won every other session, winning 25 units (flat-betting predominately) for the other 8 sessions....avg of almost 3 per, which, for me, is "spot on". (I play relatively-high unit sizes.) All wins add up rather nicely over the long term. If only you can keep right on playing; and you only can "keep right on playing" by preserving your bankroll, and, ipso facto.....the "preservation of your bankroll" becomes of paramount importance.
liuryan
liuryan
Joined: May 2, 2013
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  • Posts: 8
May 14th, 2013 at 9:32:28 AM permalink
Hi gr8player,

Can you elaborate in which scenario would you place your bets?
For example, if 3 Banker appears in a row, would you bet on Banker still or would you bet on player?

I have come across Banker and Players streaks, 10 to 11 times in a row, even up to 17 times in a row.
How do you determine if a trend is forming.

I hope to just win 3-5 units per seesion and walk away a winner every time.

Appreciate your soonest reply.
Thanks
liuryan
liuryan
Joined: May 2, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 8
May 14th, 2013 at 9:42:02 AM permalink
I used to go against the trend. For example, I will bet on banker after I observed a streak of 7 player outcomes. And vice versa.
It worked sometimes but eventually the streaks get the better of me bcos I used martingale method.
Which I realised that it was not the way to go.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
May 15th, 2013 at 8:43:40 AM permalink
Quote: liuryan

Hi gr8player,

Can you elaborate in which scenario would you place your bets?
For example, if 3 Banker appears in a row, would you bet on Banker still or would you bet on player?

I have come across Banker and Players streaks, 10 to 11 times in a row, even up to 17 times in a row.
How do you determine if a trend is forming.

I hope to just win 3-5 units per seesion and walk away a winner every time.

Appreciate your soonest reply.
Thanks



1.) Can you elaborate in which scenario would you place your bets?

No. That "scenario" is determined more by each particular shoe's (or portion thereof) propensities than it is by me.

2.) For example, if 3 Banker appears in a row, would you bet on Banker still or would you bet on Player?

Depends. If that B3 streak has been the cap for this shoe, then I'd be betting the streak to end at 3. If the B side has been running to at least the "4-hole", I'd be betting for the streak to continue at least once more. Lastly, if that B3 represents a "new top" (longest B streak of the shoe), I'd bet for the streak's continuation until it ended. Quite often, "new top"s can be precursers to some rather powerful streaks.

3.) How do you determine if a trend is forming?

Now there's the million dollar question, isn't it? Again, it all depends on each particular shoe's propensities. And I do happen to look for certain "preferred" trends (read: trends where "wins beget more wins", or "dominations", if you will). That, IMHO, is the very reason to play any EC game...to seek out and maximize potential profits on dominations, those times when you're winning the majority of your bet placements.

And, last but certainly not least;
4.) I hope to just win 3-5 unitsper session and walk away a winner every time.

Really? Is that all? I want all of that AND a personal massage from the hottest cocktail waitress in the casino. There's a "happy ending" for us all....
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 16th, 2013 at 7:33:07 AM permalink
Please pardon my indulgence as I ask the following questions of my fellow members:

Does anyone know of any relatively active, current Baccarat forum that I might be able to visit? Alternatively, might anyone know of any general gaming forum that has, at the very least, a Baccarat section within it?

I'm looking to engage in a bit more "Bac talk" than I'm afforded in this forum. That statement isn't meant to demean anyone in this forum or the forum itself, for I think it is more a matter of a misjudgement on my part as to what I perceived this forum to be about. That said, I feel absolutely compelled to add that this forum provides a wonderful service for its members and/or readership, and I am quite pleased to be a part of it.

I thank you, in advance, for any assistance and/or direction to a forum a bit more amenable to a Baccarat player such as myself.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1739
May 16th, 2013 at 8:23:24 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Please pardon my indulgence as I ask the following questions of my fellow members:

Does anyone know of any relatively active, current Baccarat forum that I might be able to visit? Alternatively, might anyone know of any general gaming forum that has, at the very least, a Baccarat section within it?

I'm looking to engage in a bit more "Bac talk" than I'm afforded in this forum. That statement isn't meant to demean anyone in this forum or the forum itself, for I think it is more a matter of a misjudgement on my part as to what I perceived this forum to be about. That said, I feel absolutely compelled to add that this forum provides a wonderful service for its members and/or readership, and I am quite pleased to be a part of it.

I thank you, in advance, for any assistance and/or direction to a forum a bit more amenable to a Baccarat player such as myself.



I've always enjoyed your post and I believe you give the house a tough game. I warned you early on that you would find no love in this forum if you even hinted that you could beat negative expectancy game (run-on sentence). No disrespect to forum.
Each day is better than the next

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